REGN

#BullPutSpreads – Selling against ITM put spreads. Closing it now since this thing could be up 30 tomorrow….you never know.

Bought to Close REGN NOV 9 2018 385.0 Call @ .05 (sold for 1.70)

FB Falling Knife

Hard to imagine this one would qualify but the chart is the chart.
Sold $FB Mar 15 2019 110 puts @ 1.17.
Delta is 7, and the strike is another 25% lower from here.
#FallingKnife

ATVI earnings analysis

#Earnings $ATVI reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 2, 2018 AC -3.69%
May 3, 2018 AC 4.51%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC 1.90%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -3.43%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -3.06%
May 4, 2017 AC 1.37%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC 18.87% Biggest UP
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.85%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -0.66%
May 5, 2016 AC 8.47%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -7.86% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 3, 2015 AC 3.26%

Avg + or – 5.08%
Bias 1.32%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 63.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 58.59 to 67.41
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 59.80 to 66.20
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.9%): 51.11 to 74.89

NOTE: The 18.9% up move is an outlier. It’s the biggest move going all the way back to 2002. So if you remove the outlier, the MAX is 8.5%, which would indicate a range of 57.66 to 68.34.

Open for requests on other symbols.

ROKU Earnings

#Earnings #ShortStrangles – Out at even. Any little bounce tomorrow and it might have been a decent winner but I’ll run while I can and look to re-load. Still a great year in this ticker. 6-0-1 now 🙂 🙂

Bought to Close 1 ROKU NOV 9 2018 50.0/70.0 Strangle @2.47 (sold for 2.54)

A TRADE:

:

ROKU STO 11/9/18 47.0 PUTS @1.06 Down big, earnings yesterday, when I was young. Expires tomorrow.

PVTL calls closed

#CoveredCalls BTC $PVTL Nov 16th 21 covered calls for .05. Sold for .70 .

Assigned at 22.5, cost basis now down to 19.80.

ERX

#ShortPuts #IRA #RiskOff – Another one I’m not completely comfortable with. See ya!

Bought to Close ERX JAN 18 2019 25.0 Puts @ 1.65 (sold for 2.02)

TGT pre-earnings

#PreEarnings Bought to Open $TGT Nov 23rd 89 calls for 1.62.

Got then from Mama’s chart… .40 delta, (close to) 14 days out from Nov 20th earnings date. 1st batch of up to three. Initial target: 2.70. Thanks @kathycon!

CRM

#ShortPuts #IRA – Stealing @Iceman ‘s #RiskOff tag here. Getting a weak bounce but with resistance still overhead I’m gonna book it and free up the cash.

Bought to Close CRM NOV 16 2018 140.0 Put @ 1.68 (sold for 2.65)

#shortputs #rolling Z Oct. 1…

#shortputs #rolling #shortstraddle Z

Oct. 1 sold a 35/50 strangle in Z, big drop after earnings, rolled the 35 put to Dec. 21 for .55, sold Dec. 35 call for .70, stock is at 30