TTD earnings analysis

#Earnings This is a fairly new issue (oldest earnings date is Nov 2016). It has had huge moves up but minimal moves down. I’m looking at selling the 100 puts, since that’s farther down than its biggest drop. Unless somebody warns me off it!

$TTD reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 8 quarters (its entire history).

Aug. 9, 2018 AC 37.13%
May 10, 2018 AC 43.39% Biggest UP
Feb. 22, 2018 AC 23.84%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC -13.96% Biggest Down
Aug. 10, 2017 AC 8.76%
May 11, 2017 AC 30.10%
Feb. 16, 2017 AC -2.84%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC 8.62%

Avg + or – 21.08%
Bias 16.88%, huge positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 127.80 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 105.08 to 150.52
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 100.86 to 154.74
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (43.4%): 72.35 to 183.25

Open for requests on other symbols.

DIS earnings trade

#Earnings Not a big mover… I’m slightly bullish looking at the chart so doing a low risk #BrokenWingButterfly.

Bought to open $DIS Nov 9th 116/118/119 call butterfly for .70. No upside risk. Breakeven around 116.80. Max profit around 70%.

DIS earnings analysis

#Earnings $DIS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 7, 2018 AC -2.21%
May 8, 2018 AC -1.78%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -1.32%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC 2.04%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -3.87%
May 9, 2017 AC -2.15%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC 0.00%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC 2.86% Biggest UP
Aug. 9, 2016 AC 1.23%
May 10, 2016 AC -4.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 9, 2016 AC -3.75%
Nov. 5, 2015 AC 2.36%

Avg + or – 2.30%
Bias -0.89%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 116.5 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 113.02 to 119.98
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 113.82 to 119.18
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.0%): 111.79 to 119.83

Open for requests on other symbols.

REGN

#BullPutSpreads – Selling against ITM put spreads. Closing it now since this thing could be up 30 tomorrow….you never know.

Bought to Close REGN NOV 9 2018 385.0 Call @ .05 (sold for 1.70)

FB Falling Knife

Hard to imagine this one would qualify but the chart is the chart.
Sold $FB Mar 15 2019 110 puts @ 1.17.
Delta is 7, and the strike is another 25% lower from here.
#FallingKnife

ATVI earnings analysis

#Earnings $ATVI reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 2, 2018 AC -3.69%
May 3, 2018 AC 4.51%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC 1.90%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -3.43%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -3.06%
May 4, 2017 AC 1.37%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC 18.87% Biggest UP
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.85%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -0.66%
May 5, 2016 AC 8.47%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -7.86% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 3, 2015 AC 3.26%

Avg + or – 5.08%
Bias 1.32%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 63.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 58.59 to 67.41
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 59.80 to 66.20
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.9%): 51.11 to 74.89

NOTE: The 18.9% up move is an outlier. It’s the biggest move going all the way back to 2002. So if you remove the outlier, the MAX is 8.5%, which would indicate a range of 57.66 to 68.34.

Open for requests on other symbols.

ROKU Earnings

#Earnings #ShortStrangles – Out at even. Any little bounce tomorrow and it might have been a decent winner but I’ll run while I can and look to re-load. Still a great year in this ticker. 6-0-1 now 🙂 🙂

Bought to Close 1 ROKU NOV 9 2018 50.0/70.0 Strangle @2.47 (sold for 2.54)