SPX 1-dte IC defense again

Converted SPX Jan28 2625/2620 put side to Jan28 2630/2625/2620 fly @ 1.55. With credit received on IC, net debit is 1.05 per lot x6. This either locks in a loss or a possible profit if SPX closes between 2625 and 2630. Decision made on breach of 2625 level and then waited for bounce to enter.

Defending every other trade is getting old so will probably stay on sidelines or use long ICs as @jeffcp66 is doing. All depends on the HV/IV ratio on SPX after today.


#pietrades, #spycraft

BIIB earnings analysis

#Earnings $BIIB reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

***NOTE: These are 5-day moves, since options traded for earnings will expire on Friday.

Tue 10/23/2018 BO -4.87%
Tue 07/24/2018 BO -4.95%
Tue 04/24/2018 BO +6.75%
Thu 01/25/2018 BO +3.46%
Tue 10/24/2017 BO -6.33% Biggest DOWN
Tue 07/25/2017 BO +0.96%
Tue 04/25/2017 BO -2.04%
Thu 01/26/2017 BO +1.03%
Wed 10/26/2016 AC -5.49%
Thu 07/21/2016 BO +9.50% Biggest UP
Thu 04/21/2016 BO +7.13%
Wed 01/27/2016 BO +5.07%

Avg (+ or -) 4.80%
Bias 0.85%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 333.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 316.16 to 349.84
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 317.02 to 348.98
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 301.37 to 364.64

Open for requests on other symbols.

SPX 1-dte long

#SPX1dte Sold a third of the $SPX Jan 28th 2620/2600 put spreads for 2.00. Condors bought for .70 on Friday.