TRADES:

SYNA STC my double stock position @36.98
SYNA STO 3/29/18 36.0 CALLS @.80 Covered , was ITM
SYNA STO 3/29/19 36.5 CALLS @.50

SPX ITM puts closed

#SPX1dte I got punched around pretty bad in March with a couple of 1-dte breaches and failed attempts at rolling. This reverse roll was the worst; had I left the call spread it would have ben fine. Thank God for strong months like February to eclipse small losing months like March.

BTC $SPX March 29th 2820/2800 put spreads for 8.50. Sold for 4.80 on March 19th as a #ReverseRoll.

#condorroll

Closing $M

Bought to close $M 4/18 23 puts @ .29. Sold for .72 on 2/26.

TSLA LULU BECS

#shortcallspreads
$TSLA STO 3/29 300/290 BECS at .45
$LULU STO 4/18 175/170 BECS at 2.18

RH earnings analysis

#Earnings $RH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Always a big mover. Expected move is less than average move, meaning options are underpriced.

Dec. 3, 2018 AC +10.90%
Sept. 4, 2018 AC -13.06%
June 11, 2018 AC +30.54%
March 27, 2018 AC +22.48%
Dec. 5, 2017 AC +0.79%
Sept. 6, 2017 AC +44.75%
June 1, 2017 AC -25.69%
March 28, 2017 AC +14.94%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC -18.13%
Sept. 8, 2016 AC +3.08%
June 8, 2016 AC -21.23%
March 29, 2016 AC +3.97%

Avg (+ or -) 17.46%
Bias 4.45%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 130.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 111.45 to 148.55
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 107.30 to 152.70
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (44.8%): 71.83 to 188.18
Based on DOWN max only (-25.7%): 96.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings FIVE LULU Bought FIVE…

#earnings FIVE LULU

Bought FIVE strangle for .35, sold yesterday for 1.17.
I think it’s safe to say I didn’t need the LULU hedge.

Good morning

I did not win the lottery.