SPX 1-dte

#SPX1ste Sold $SPX Apr 15th 2830/2850-2920/2940 condor for 1.25 (IV 7.23%, SPX 2890)

With low IV and sideways market, placing today’s trade a bit earlier and more aggressively than usual.

STZ

STC 192.5/190Puts #supercharger $1.60 opened 4-8 for $1.18
found this with my new MarketTide.

PNC (slightly) bearish condor

#Earnings Sold $PNC Apr 12th 124/127-128/131 #IronCondor for 2.00.

Risking 1.00 to make 2.00. Sightly bearish due to its recent history.

Be wary of the banks?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/no-spring-thaw-in-store-for-banks-11554908159

PNC earnings analysis

#Earnings $PNC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Comparing 1-point-wide, 3-point-wing #IronCondor trades, PNC comes out with a much better R/R than does $JPM. PNC has a slightly lower average move, but weighted toward downside.

Jan. 16, 2019 BO +0.07%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -5.58% Biggest DOWN
July 13, 2018 BO +0.23%
April 13, 2018 BO -4.11%
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +0.23%
Oct. 13, 2017 BO -1.12%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.11%
April 13, 2017 BO -0.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.72% Biggest UP
Oct. 14, 2016 BO +0.10%
July 15, 2016 BO -0.96%
April 14, 2016 BO -0.56%

Avg (+ or -) 1.16%
Bias -0.94%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 128.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 124.74 to 132.26
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 127.01 to 129.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.6%): 121.33 to 135.67
Based on UP max only (+0.7%): 129.43

Open to requests for other symbols.

JPM earnings analysis

#Earnings $JPM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.73%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -1.09%
July 13, 2018 BO -0.45%
April 13, 2018 BO -2.70% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +1.65%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -0.28%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.91%
April 13, 2017 BO -1.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.53%
Oct. 14, 2016 BO -0.32%
July 14, 2016 BO +1.51%
April 13, 2016 BO +4.23% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 1.30%
Bias 0.14%, no significant directional bias on earnings.

With stock at 106.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 104.08 to 108.92
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 105.12 to 107.88
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.2%): 102.00 to 111.00
Based on DOWN max only (-2.7%): 103.62

Open to requests for other symbols.