TRADES:

HIIQ BTO STOCK 23.78
HIIQ STO 5/17/19 24.0 CALLS @.60
AMD STO 5/24/19 28.5 CALLS @.67 Covered

SPX smashed

#SPX1dte The biggest up days in history are all during times of market volatility. On a percentage basis, the Fall of 2008 contains five of the top 10 biggest moves UP; a period in which the market was only starting its fall to lose over half its value.

So it is fitting a call spread I could have closed at yesterday’s open for about .45 I now had to stop out for 8.00. Today’s action has provided no pullback opportunities, although I imagine there’ll be one now that I was finally forced out.

BTC $SPX May 17th 2890/2915 call spreads for 8.00. Sold for 2.10 on Monday.

#CondorRoll Sold $SPX May 31st 2815/2840/2960/2985 condors for 6.65

I’m also going to take a loss on today’s monthly condor call side. I cannot risk overnight gap risk on the 2895 short calls.

CMG

#LongPuts – I had bought these as lottery tickets in a 401k with the plan of selling put spreads against them to pay them off. I’ve just been advised that spread trading will not be allowed in this account so walking away with the .30 loss. I could still set up the spread with two trades but refuse to pay Fidelity the extra commissions.

Sold CMG JAN 15 2021 210.0 Puts @ 1.50 (bought for 1.80)

DE bullish play

#Earnings I was looking at a #DoubleCalendar, ATM going for about 1.50, but didn’t want the risk as I think a bigger than average move may be possible. Market is crazy bullish at the moment, entirely Trade-War driven. So I looked at an OTM call calendar at 160. The front calls don’t even have a bid, so, I just went with the “buy” half of the Calendar…

Bought to open $DE May 24th 160 calls for .18.

Looking at the daily chart, DE was close to 170 just a couple weeks ago. Unless the report is bad, I believe it has a good shot at a large move tomorrow, or even a further drift upward into next week, when these expire. It is a much better risk/reward play in an uncertain market. Needs any move up to be profitable, and about a 9% move up to be ATM.

NVDA butterfly

#Earnings Bought to Open $NVDA May 17th 155/160/162.5 #BrokenWingButterfly for 1.49. Bullish trade with no upside risk.

DE earnings analysis

#Earnings $DE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 15, 2019 BO -2.11%
Nov. 21, 2018 BO +2.42%
Aug. 17, 2018 BO +2.35%
May 18, 2018 BO +5.74%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO +1.57%
Nov. 22, 2017 BO +4.32%
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -5.37%
May 19, 2017 BO +7.30%
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +1.00%
Nov. 23, 2016 BO +11.04%
Aug. 19, 2016 BO +13.49% Biggest UP
May 20, 2016 BO -5.48% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 5.18%
Bias 3.02%, strongly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 146.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 140.45 to 151.55
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 138.43 to 153.57
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 126.30 to 165.70
Based on DOWN Max only (-5.5%): 138.00

Open to requests for other symbols.

NVDA earnings analysis

#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
May 9, 2017 AC +17.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -2.37%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +29.80% Biggest UP
Aug. 11, 2016 AC +5.59%
May 12, 2016 AC +15.20%

Avg (+ or -) 9.64%
Bias 4.06%, strongly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 159.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 147.20 to 170.80
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 143.68 to 174.32
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (29.8%): 111.62 to 206.38
Based on DOWN Max only (-18.8%): 129.19

Open to requests for other symbols.