#earnings KMX

Sold a fuzzballish Big Lizard, July 19, 72.70/80/82.50/85 #ironcondor for 2.82. Thanks for the data Jeff.

KMX dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $KMX Jun21/Jun28 83 #DoubleCalendar for .43. Filling slowly, 1 lot every minute or so.

KMX earnings analysis

#Earnings $KMX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 29, 2019 BO +9.61%
Dec. 21, 2018 BO +3.94%
Sept. 26, 2018 BO -1.60%
June 22, 2018 BO +12.86% Biggest UP
April 4, 2018 BO +4.61%
Dec. 21, 2017 BO -3.60%
Sept. 22, 2017 BO +7.77%
June 21, 2017 BO +0.80%
April 6, 2017 BO +2.36%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +6.09%
Sept. 21, 2016 BO -2.04%
June 21, 2016 BO -4.91% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 5.02%
Bias 2.99%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 82.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 77.07 to 87.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 78.36 to 86.64
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 71.89 to 93.11
Based on UP Max only (-4.9%): 78.45

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

RHT earnings ???

#Earnings $RHT reports tonight, but there is no volatility or premium in options expiring tomorrow. I don’t know what’s going on, because all sources say it reports tonight. Time to buy a buttload of long straddles? Anyone know what’s up?

Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 25, 2019 AC +0.29%
Dec. 17, 2018 AC 0.00%
Sept. 19, 2018 AC -6.53%
June 21, 2018 AC -14.23%
March 26, 2018 AC +0.86%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC -5.32%
Sept. 25, 2017 AC +4.07%
June 20, 2017 AC +9.58%
March 27, 2017 AC +5.20%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC -13.88%
Sept. 21, 2016 AC +3.86%
June 22, 2016 AC -1.70%

Avg (+ or -) 5.46%
Bias -1.48%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 188.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 187.23 to 189.77 (???)
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 178.21 to 198.79
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.2%): 161.88 yo 215.32
Based on UP Max only (+9.6%): 206.56

Open to requests for other symbols.

NUGT at 1-year highs

#ContangoETFs Sold $NUGT Dec 35 calls for 2.85
Also followed @Ramie77, sold Sept 35 calls for 1.40

UBER rolling continues

#Earnings BTC $UBER June 21st 40/46 strangles for .15. Sold for 1.05 on June 5th, as a roll from busted earnings trade.

#Rolling again: Sold $UBER July 12th 42/48 strangles for 1.25. Only partial fill, may have to lower to 1.20.

More NUGT

Sold $NUGT 9/20 35 calls @ 1.40. Highest strike in Sep.