Killing downside warning

#SPXcampaign #VIXIndicator It’s becoming clear that Downside Warning needs to be scrapped. I’m taking it off the site and will determine a new strategy. The trigger will remain only as a set up for the eventual Upside Warning, which has been working like a charm.

DOWNside Warning in effect


Upside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator The Upside warning that started on Sept 22nd was finally canceled at the open today, as the VIX is now over 50% higher than its low on Nov 3rd. This constitutes a signal for the downside. A full downside warning will happen if we reach 14.38 today.

VIX going up

#VIXindicator The VIX is trending up again. Closes at or beyond the upper or lower Bollinger bands often signal a reversal is imminent. On the last uptrend in late October we closed 4 days at or just outside the upper BB, then reversed. On the current uptrend, we haven’t closed that high yet, which suggests […]

VIX juss can’t stop it

#SPXcampaign #VIXIndicator Just as happened on Oct 25th, the VIX peaked just shy of cancelling the Upside Warning. We are now on yet another rally off a small dip in SPX. I did my first and only #InverseCondors last week, and am now white-knuckling through these dips for them to expire next week. If we […]

SPX puts sold

#SPXcampaign Since today marks a further validation of the Upside Warning on the #VIXindicator, I’m selling an additional aggressive put spread, and holding off on selling new call spreads and an #ITMroll. Sold $SPX Nov 16th (monthly) 2585/2560 call spreads for 5.10. #inversecondor

VIX dropping

#VIXIndicator The VIX is closing in on another validation of the Upside Warning. If it closes below 9.98 today and Monday, that will be three in a row below the 78.6% Fib retracement of the last spike, which historically is less compelling than an original Upside Warning but still a decent indicator of more upside, […]