Markets

Why is it still rising? Earnings Season Shocker: FAAMG Earnings Grew By 2% While EPS For The Other 495 S&P Companies Plunged 38%. Meanwhile the carnage among small caps was unprecedented with Russell 2000 EPS plunging by 97%. “Goldman, which over the weekend turned incrementally more bullish on the economy and hiked its GDP forecast […]

Upside to come

The #VIXIndicator fired a bullish signal at the close. This indicates the likelihood of a further move higher in the coming days or weeks.

Upside coming?

#VIXIndicator – Looks like we will get an Upside Warning at the close. I have posted for the last two years about #DoubleHeaders, where we get a Downside Warning canceled, followed by another DW without an Upside in between. They have become more common and I have been getting a bigger database to analyze. I […]

Triple header

#VIXIndicator Since 1999, what happened this week has happened once previously: a Downside Warning going into effect after it had been canceled, with no Upside Warning in between… and then that happening AGAIN. It’s a “triple-header” of Downside Warnings (DW). The Downside Warning was reinstated on Wednesday after being canceled Monday. The DW that preceded […]

So much for that.

#VIXIndicator The Downside Warning was reinstated at the close Wednesday, as VIX closed over 25% higher than Monday’s close.

SPX skip

#SPX1dte Pretty sharp move at day’s end, but IV on tomorrow’s expiry is only 22%. I’m skipping this as tomorrow could be a sharp bounce or a sharp drop. #VIXIndicator would have fired an upside warning today if the close was calm. This is why it takes 3 consecutive days of VIX closes before it […]

Downside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator The VIX closed below the 78.6% retracement, so that cancels the DW. Crazy stuff on a day with jobs numbers like that. If we can close well Monday and Tuesday it will set up nicely for a further rally higher.

Largest gap open since 2014

#VIXindicator As I said below, this is the first time I’ve had an open gap breach a short strike on the #SPX1dte strategy, which I started in December 2018. Today’s SPX open price was 2.40% below Friday’s close price. It got me thinking, how often has that happened? Well, it used to happen fairly frequently, […]

Downside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator Forgot to note that yesterday the Downside Warning was canceled when $SPX hit all-time highs. $VIX hasn’t dropped a lot, however, so it may not mean all-clear ahead.

Highs and lows

#VIXIndicator New $VIX highs, new $SPX lows today. SPX now negative on year, lowest levels since January 6th. Highest VIX since Oct 10th.

Downside Warning in effect

#VIXindicator The $VIX closed well over 25% higher than Thursday’s close (2-day closing low) so a Downside Warning took effect. Highest VIX readings since October 10th. Expect further downside in the market in the coming days or weeks.

Upside Warning reinstated

#VIXindicator We kicked off a “minor” Upside Warning last night, based on the small VIX spike from Jan 3 and 6. These occur when a volatility spike cancels a previous UpW but no Downside Warning comes. In the past, they often signal continued momentum higher.

Upside Warning canceled

#VIXindicator The Upside Warning was canceled this morning with the VIX spike. We can now watch for a high VIX close to trigger a Downside Warning, or if we can close back below 12.68 we can look for a reinstated Upside Warning.

I saw Santa kissing 3200

#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning will go into effect Tuesday with a VIX close at 12.82 or lower.

Downside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator The Downside Warning is officially canceled as the SPX notched a new all-time high. However, this high was driven by a tweet that we humans understand, based on recent history, really doesn’t mean anything. The algos respond and drive us higher. If no trade deal is reached by Sunday, or there’s no agreement to […]

Another Downside bust

#VIXIndicator Well, that’s two Downside Warnings in a row that turned out to be only one-day warnings for a brief intraday low, then rocket back to the skies. I’m going to keep tracking them, but include a notice that they have not always been working. Meanwhile, I will research the history to determine if there […]

Downside Warning in effect

#VIXIndicator The $VIX close today was 14.91, which is over 25% higher than Wednesday’s close, triggering a Downside Warning. Based on past behavior, the chance for a further drop in the coming days or weeks is high. That said, the last one (on Oct 2nd) didn’t pan out, with only a slightly lower intraday low […]

Upside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator The intraday $VIX spike has canceled the Upside Warning, which had been in effect since Oct 16th.

VIX collapsing

#VIXindicator The Upside Warning coming through this time, with $VIX hitting lowest level since July 29th. $SPX came within .59 of all-time high earlier today.

Upside Warning

#VIXindicator An inside day on the VIX chart is the third close below 15.05 in a row, meaning an Upside Warning is in effect. Look for higher prices in the coming days. I’m proceeding cautiously after last month’s headfake. I only have one bullish trade (put spread sold this morning). Expiring today: $SPX Oct 16th […]

SPX Monday

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 21st 2975/2950 put spreads for 4.90. IV: 11.44%, SPX 2990. Bullish positioning following both trend and #VIXindicator.

SPX Monday call spread closed

#SPX1dte . BTC $SPX Oct 7th 2960/2985 call spread for 1.95. Condors sold for 2.85 on Wednesday. It came within expected move today. The #VIXIndicator is getting whipsawed this time around. It will suck two get to false signals in a row, but it is shaping up that way right now. Next week will give […]

Downside Warning in effect

#VIXIndicator So after the failure of the Upside, we entered a Downside at today’s close. This signal usually means the market goes lower over the coming days.

Upside Warning canceled

#VIXindicator It seemed obvious days ago but it was just officially canceled. This is only the third total failure of the signal since 1999, out of 44 total, where the SPX made no new high after the signal fired, other than a brief intraday spike the very next day.

No Upside

#VIXIndicator. This Upside Warning looks to be a dud. After it fired on Thursday’s close, we only got a 0.3% intraday bump on Friday, then it’s been all lower. There’s never been a pullback this strong on an Upside Warning that ended up bouncing and coming through. This is the 43rd UpW since I started […]

Upside Warning in effect

#VIXIndicator Look for higher prices over the next couple of weeks.

Upside Warning / Risk Reversal

#SPX1dte #VIXIndicator As an Upside Warning is preparing to fire today (VIX close below 14.50), I’m doing this Risk Reversal for next Friday. I will add more to the long if we get a pullback tomorrow or Monday. Bought to Open $SPX Sept 27th 3045/3060 bull call spreads for 2.40. Sold to Open $SPX Sept […]

Downside Warning’s minutes are numbered

#VIXIndicator The Downside Warning will most likely be canceled at today’s close. Two more consecutive days closing below 14.50 would mean an Upside Warning hitting at Monday’s close.

Downside Warning again

#VIXindicator This is one of the more whipsaw-y corrections I can remember. Today was our fifth warning. I don’t think the bottom is in yet, but betting on that after the Aug 14th warning got me ripped up as the bounce was strong and protracted. (arrows represent the 4 Downside Warnings)

Highest VIX

#VIXindicator Today was the highest $VIX since January 3rd, when VIX was dropping from its Christmas Eve highs. $VXX and $UVXY were higher in May, as they suffer from Contango.

SPX put spread

#SPX1dte Didn’t get any bounce to sell call spreads, so tried a put spread. Sold $SPX Aug 7th 2725/2700 put spreads for 1.80. Hopefully I can close this tomorrow. Two more Warnings fired today, but I gotta think at least a small relief rally will happen tomorrow. This is a pretty brutal day. #VIXindicator

Another warning

#VIXindicator I began to doubt it would show its stuff on day one, but the Downside Warning came through today, and a second warning fired at the close.

Downside Warning in effect

#VIXIndicator Although we recovered from the huge intraday drop, the VIX spiked again at the close and fired a Downside Warning. Expect more volatility and a market drop in the coming days.

Look out above

#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning went into effect at the close Friday. This signal has been over 90% effective since 2000, leading to at least a 1.5% short-term gain in the S&P. Expect new record highs over the next couple of weeks.

Downside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator It’s been awhile since we started this Warning, so I missed the fact that it was canceled on Thursday with the new SPX high. So now we set up for either a new Downside Warning or an Upside Warning. See the sidebar for those levels.

Downside Warning

#VIXIndicator A Downside Warning is now in effect… look for continued drop, at least in the short term.

VIX Indicator

#VIXIndicator, needless to say, the minor upside warning was canceled this morning with a $VIX high of 18.80 (we only needed 16.09). Any close at 16.09 or higher will mean a Downside Warning.

Minor Upside Warning

#VIXIndicator fired this at the close. Last one we got was on March 13th, and it was good for a 1.75% move up from that day’s close to intraday high 6 days later, before we stalled and pulled back a little.

Upside Warning probably reaffirmed

#VIXIndicator With a $VIX close at 13.54 or lower today, a”minor” upside warning will fire, reaffirming market’s upside bias in the absence of any significant pullback materializing. Should mean another leg higher next week.

SPX condor roll

#SPX1dte #VIXIndicator No upside warning today so I’m selling both sides: Sold $SPX April 12th 2800/2825-2910/2935 condors for 6.30 (IV 11.82%, SPX 2875)

Upside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator It was only a “minor” one so not surprising that it didn’t last long or go far… VIX spiked today to reach 25% higher than yesterday’s close, so that cancels the minor upside warning. A close at 17.04 or higher would be a Downside Warning.

“Minor” upside warning

#VIXIndicator Usually the Upside Warning is canceled when we get a Downside Warning. But sometimes, like last Monday, the UpW is canceled by an intraday spike on the $VIX, with no DW taking effect. Usually when that happens, the DW comes within the next few days. But sometimes, the VIX retreats enough to fire a […]

Upside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator The $VIX just took out the Upside Warning by 1-point. We need to close at 16.97 or higher for this to be a Downside Warning.

Upside Warning pullbacks

#VIXIndicator Since we’re in this pullback I looked back at other times we had a signficant pullback (more than 1%) after an Upside Warning fires. The chart below shows all of the instances since 1999. Two of them resulted in no new highs, and we dropped significantly before the Upside Warning was technically canceled (the […]

Upside Warning performance metrics

#VIXIndicator Because I’m becoming an Excel geek, I made a new chart measuring a performance metric for the Upside Warning. This shows the rise we have gotten from past Upside Warnings in relation to how much the SPX had already recovered before the Warning hit. For instance, the upper-left-most dot represents a 32.2% rise in […]

VIX upside trades

Bot QQQ Mar 8 175c, SPY 277.5c, IWM 154c. First small layer. Trading very carefully in case the rally doesn’t materialize. Added another layer of SPY, QQQ, and IWM calls. Same strikes. Better price. Will hedge with VIX calls near the close if the downside wins today. #vixindicator

Upside Warning coming

#VIXIndicator Here’s the version of the past results I posted back in May. The blue bars with numbers on top represent the percentage move UP from the close of an Upside Warning day to the eventual SPX high before another pullback. The numbers at the bottom of each bar are the percentage move DOWN of […]

One more…

#VIXIndicator one more day with a $VIX close below 16.47 and we have an Upside Warning. I think today’s action foretells we are headed that way.

Downside Warning canceled!

#VIXIndicator Today’s $VIX close ends the 4-month Downside Warning. If we get two more closes at or below 16.47, it will trigger an Upside Warning, which usually means a strong rally for a few days or weeks.

Almost canceled

#VIXIndicator We closed with $VIX only 0.10 above the cancelation level of the Downside Warning, which has been in effect since October 5th. If bears are going to show up, they better do it soon.

VIX indicator

@jeffcp66, does the SPX have to make new highs to cancel a downside warning? If so, it’s a long way to cancelling the downside. #vixindicator

On Christmas Eve?

#VIXIndicator Looks like two new downside warnings, on usually the quietest day of the year. Down 2% on Christmas Eve. May your Christmas Day be free of volatility and full of cheer!

Since we are on experiment…

Since we are on experiment discussion below again, here is one I have been paper trading. A twist on #pietrades. If we need a new term we could call them #lizardpies. So obviously with the market rout all my #pietrades went ITM and to prevent a meltdown in margin I converted them all to #fuzzy. […]

Downside Warning

#VIXIndicator Another Downside Warning fired today with the VIX closing at 25.23. That’s the highest close of this correction (although the intraday high was on Oct 11th), and the highest VIX close since February 12th. This is the 4th warning of this correction. After the initial Warning, additional warnings can sometimes signal the bottom, but […]

Correction Data

#VIXindicator Looking back at all 54 Downside Warnings gives us some data to view our current correction. Below are three charts with the Average Move down on each day of the correction. (I omitted the black swan 2008 financial crisis). Day 1 is the day the Downside Warning fired (at the close). The percentages are […]

Fugly

#VIXindicator An additional triple warning at the close, following through on Friday’s first warning.

Downside Warning

#VIXindicator A downside warning is enacted today, since we closed at over 25% of Wednesday’s close (2-day closing low). This new Warning resets VIX levels. The Warning would be canceled with a new SPX high above 2,940.91, or a close of the VIX of 12.44 or lower, with three consecutive closes leading to an Upside […]

VIX stops being boring

#VIXIndicator… new highs today, 15.19 highest since Sep 10th. If we close the day above 14.51, it will be a new Downside Warning. This just one day after the lowest close since August 9th.

Missed it by that much

#VIXIndicator The close bumped us up to 11.68, so still no start of the countdown to an Upside Warning.

VIX can’t shake off the fear

#VIXIndicator We spent the morning in Upside Warning territory, but despite a steadily rising SPX all day, the VIX also rose steadily then ended up closing higher on the day.

Downside Warning AGAIN

#VIXIndicator. 2018 is the year of the rollercoaster. Today’s close triggered anther warning for potential drops in the market.

We missed again

#VIXIndicator The $VIX avoided an Upside Warning again… clock restarts, we need three consecutive closes below 11.20 (11.19 or lower).

Two down…

#VIXIndicator …one to go. A $VIX close below 11.20 tomorrow will mean an Upside Warning, indicating a high chance of a rally to new all-time highs on the $SPX. The third day is where we failed in both late February and late May, and then new Downside Warnings hit on the fourth days.

Downside Warning finally canceled

#VIXIndicator Third time’s a charm for an Upside Warning? Two more closes below 11.20 and we’re golden.

Smoother sailing?

#VIXIndicator Monday’s close on the VIX was the lowest since January 23rd, before this whole mess started. And we’re rallying in pre-market, with VIX hitting a low of 10.90, which is the lowest low since Jan 24th.

Low VIX

#VIXIndicator Lowest intra-day VIX level since 6/15 (excluding pre-market spikes).

Another Downside Warning

#VIXIndicator We got a third warning at the close Wednesday, the second time this week. The low on this round was put it on the day of the first warning, May 29, at 2676. Since then we stayed above 2700 until this week. We could test that low today, and if we go through, the […]

Down we go

#VIXIndicator has passed an intraday warning level for the first time since the most recent Warning fired on May 29th. Any close above 17.21 will be another warning… which could also be a capitulation low… hard to tell with these secondary warnings. So far the LOD is the lowest point on the S&P since May […]

Market ends weakly, TQQQ calls sold

#Market #LEAPs Not a good end to the day… are we really surprised or freaked out by interest rates? Or is this market just not getting back through 2800 for the rest of the year? We are now in the fifth month of a market that cannot rally like we saw it do so often […]

SPX trades

#SPXcampaign As I posted on Friday I am scaling back on this strategy, at least until I can clear the decks and regroup. I’ve decided to sell half my normal amounts for the time being. I will however, add extra longs when we get an Upside Warning. Today my stop levels were breached on my […]

VIX plummets again

#VIXIndicator We’ve seen this movie before, but each time it happens at a lower VIX level. Today should be the second close below the PREVIOUS 78.6% Fib line, but we need to close at 11.01 or lower to cancel this current warning. Because we are in the third Downside warning without an Upside one, the […]

Classic whipsaw

All things considered, I handled it as best as I can expect, in that I protected myself by closing some bullish spreads, but didn’t panic close positions, leaving a couple ATM/ITM put spreads in place. Now I’m stuck with some underwater call spreads but won’t panic close them… tough part is we are officially under […]

New downside warning

#VIXIndicator… for perspective, when this happened on Feb 28th (another warning firing a few days after the previous one had been canceled), the SPX closed at 2713. We hit the low of 2553 on April 2nd, so a full month later. During that month, we also reached a high of 2801.

Italy this time

#VIXIndicator In pre-market we have a signal on the VIXIndicator which indicates to be wary of new downside risk, this time due to Italy’s political crisis causing a big drop in the Euro. Whether we get a new Downside Warning will depend on the VIX closing price.

Upside Warning data

#VIXIndicator Looking less likely we’ll get an Upside Warning today, but in any case here’s an updated version of the chart I posted months ago. The blue bars with numbers on top represent the percentage move UP from the close of an Upside Warning day to the eventual SPX high before another pullback. The numbers […]