SPX Upside Warning data

I have been compiling data on the #VIXindicator. I hope to present it to everyone in a webinar soon, but since we are in an Upside Warning now, I wanted to share some points of interest.

(An Upside Warning fires when the VIX closes below the Fib 78.6% retracement for three consecutive days)

1. 33 corrections since Nov 1999, as determined by the VIX Indicator’s downside signals. These corrections average 12.5% each. Smallest was 3% and largest was 53.7% (2008-9).
2. Of those corrections, an Upside Warning fired 28 of the 33 times.
3. In 27 out of 28 times, the SPX continued higher after the Warning.
4. The average SPX bottom to top recovery was 16.4%. The average rise AFTER the Warning was 6.40%. This means that the Upside Warning captured an average of 38.9% of each recovery.
5. The average amount of time between an Upside Warning and the next SPX high is 2.5 months.

For instance, in the recovery we are now in: SPX low was 1991 on June 27, high was 2169 on July 14. That is an 8.9% recovery. The Upside Warning fired Friday, July 8, when we closed at 2120.90. Since then, we topped out at 1.83% higher, which means the warning caught 21% of the move so far.

21% is below the 38.9% average, so more upside is definitely possible. But pullbacks can and do happen during Upside Warnings. A new spike in the VIX that triggers a Downside signal would end the Upside Warning.

In summary, when an Upside Warning fires it is almost guaranteed that more upside will come, and it could last several weeks.

I also don’t see where…

I also don’t see where to play Contango??

ContangoETF webinar archive

Someone asked earlier, so reposting here: Contributor/Authors can access the ContangoETF webinar by going to your WordPress Dashboard (options.bistro.com/wp-admin), then select Media in the left column; then the ContagoETF webinar video is on the fourth or fifth row down.

Anyone who wants to be a Contributor/Author, just let me know.

Webinar Recording – Contango ETFs, Jan 20, 2016

This recording has expired. It was I held on Jan 20th and was posted here for one week. It will return, as we’ll as other webinars. If you have questions or comments, you can reply to this post.  Thanks.

ETF Webinar Recording

This video has expired for now. Look for it and other webinars to return soon.

Contango ETF webinar – TODAY (Wednesday)

Learn about the ETFs that OptionsBistro traders love, like UVXY, NUGT, and KOLD! The products that, by design, are dragged downward over time, giving traders an edge.

If you have not previously replied, this is your chance… there are limited spaces remaining, so the first people to reply to this post will get the remaining slots. If you miss out, look for a recording that will be posted on this site for a limited time starting Thursday.


#Webinars #ContangoETFs

ETF Webinar – January 20, 2016

A new webinar next week for what I call #ContangoETFs; the bull and bear 2x and 3x ETFs and ETNs that always head toward zero; how they work, and how to keep an edge in trading them. It will be Wednesday, January 20 at 5pm ET, 2pm PT. Limited spaces available; reply below this post if you’d like to attend.