Per my SPX IC defense plan, I bought back half of my Jan18 2635 short calls. This will allow one of the long calls to run unhedged in case this rally continues into Friday.
Here’s some follow up info to the post I did a couple days ago:
1. Scott Ruble is currently at www.stratagem.com His courses are good, but expensive. His “POT” (Practical Options Tactics) subscription is VERY expensive ($299/mo) and generally not worth it, very frustrating (You can get a 30 day trial of POT for free though). He has moments of brilliance, but you have to weed through a frustrating delivery style. @kathycon and I call it “finding gems in the poo.” Aeromir offers a 10% discount for Scott’s stuff, I think the coupon code is “AEROMIR10” or maybe “AERO10”. Scott is a bit like “Whiz-Lite.”
2. Scott used to be at Random Walk and the Random Walk website has some of Scott’s classes…some are even FREE…so I recommend going to www.randomwalktrading.com before doing anything at Stratagem. The “Layered Spreads” class at RW for $95 (on sale right now) is a must investment I think. Very very good, and taught by Scott. You get a very detailed pdf book with the course. If you buy the course, you get access to many videos immediately, but the PDF takes a couple days to receive while they do the ID encoding. All the doc downloads at RW are encrypted with your personal ID…so you can get in trouble if caught sharing them. Ed T. at Random Walk has the “OIA” subscription for $50/ mo….excellent value for what you’ll learn and his professional delivery.
3. Aeromir www.aeromir.com (Aeromir took over the defunct “Capital Discussions” group) has a free membership that gets you two week access to tons of videos (rolling two weeks)…definitely do the RTT 1 month trial for $25.00. You’ll learn a ton of good stuff. After the first month it’s $155. I think you can learn enough in the first month to go it alone. The trial will inundate you with info though….tons of email updates, risk graph images, texts on every update, videos to watch. They’ve recently launched two new services based on RTT, that give you “light” versions of info for a cheaper monthly expense. Just do the full trial and you’ll be on your way. RTT’s have struggled a bit with us in backwardation right now, so they have needed a lot of management…which is actually good to see the approaches they take for defense (Risk Reversals, Rolling Thunder hedges, Reverse Harveys). Aeromir does a lot of roundtables bringing in various trade experts to talk about their designs. If you search on YouTube for “Aeromir Scott Ruble Roundtable” he recently did a really good session on Rolling Thunder. I’d classify Aeromir as kind of a “bulletin board” type core, surrounded with different trade services. Low tech website, but they do bring in some good roundtable speakers, and “Trading Group 1” in the videos are usually worth listening to.
I think that’s about it, I’ll add more if I think of it.
Below is a snap of an article in Stocks and Commodities magazine about the RTT. I have the pdf if anyone wants it, drop me a line. firstname.lastname@example.org Or you might be able to google it.
Hi Everyone! I just couldn’t find a new bread-and-butter trade this year that justified reporting, so I lost track of a lot going on here. I did find some good new approaches though. I found Scott Ruble (Stratagem) to be an excellent teacher on structured courses, but a terrible terrible subscription provider. @kathycon and I have used several of his approaches in the last few months to make money…#AdvancedRiskReversals, #SpikedCollars, #LayeredSpreads, and #RollingThunder. Scott was with Random Walk for awhile before having a falling out. Ed has taken Scott’s place at Random Walk and has a $50/mo subscription service that I quite like. Very reasonable for what you get. Ed’s approach is #PregnantButterflies which layer in spreads in a way to provide wide profit ranges, often risk free. The #RTT (Road Trip Trade) trades at Aeromir are good (BWB), and they manage them very dynamically using a lot of Scott’s teachings. The one month trial of RTT is very worth it. Option Pit is still great….but VERY deep and takes a ton of cerebral work….especially if you think you know it all already (like I did).
The only update I’ll give is on NFLX. I made a solemn vow in @fuzzballl ‘s name that I would stick with this until I was even. I started at $358 a share and am now down to $272….that’s a ton of cost basis reduction! I’m accomplishing this two ways…. 1. using weekly debit wide broken wing put flies (Ed calls them “Venus Flies” for the downside collar, and. 2. using weekly covered calls to finance the flies. As you can see I’m still off the mark on break even….but I’m being mechanical with the income collection and tracking every cent against the cost basis. I’ve only got 100 shares of NFLX so the ride down has been manageable.
Hope we all get what we want from the market next year! This last year is one of those that seriously refines you as a trader. Survive….and you come out a much better trader.
Have a few that are way ITM now. Wish I had ratioed them in Oct. but too late now. Since you seem to be the only one with enough patience to take these to the end here are my questions
1. About how long does it take you to scratch the trade one ITM?
2. Seems like the best way to get any decent premium is to sell 43-45 DTE and reset at 22 DTE. Have you found that as well?
3. Once the new series of LEAP comes out does it make sense to roll the longs to the new leap for $3-4 or hang on to the one you have until the end?
I am debating taking some tax losses and resetting vs. hanging with the ones I have.
Did not think I would trade today but the continued market puke fest took all the time value out of a few of my positions.
MU rolled the 18 DTE 40/40 #fuzzy out to 39 DTE for 0.33 credit. Cb now 14.8. I suspect there is a lot of tax loss selling in the this and WDC and hope they will rebound in the new year.
I have some EXPE trades in the cue but the market makers are being greedy.
Also, even though my equity curve is now down, in my core account I have generated 17% cash returns over the last 12 weeks. As @kathycon I believe said below, equity is lower but cash is higher. Good to have some cash to use but this time I am waiting until I see a shift.
Maybe, just maybe that was the bottom this morning. The VIX spiked to 33.38 and hopefully that will mark the low. I was personally thinking we needed a vix spike 30-50 before a bottom. Of course it could go much higher but the last major dips were done when there was real panic.
All I want for Christmas is a Santa Claus rally 🙂
Adjustments, just doing my best to bring in income to offset the continued chaos.
GILD 2021 67.5/69 next week for 11.92. Have 113 weeks to manage.
EXPE 125/125/126 rolled the 1 DTE 126 out to 15 DTE for 1.00. CB now 13.88 and as above 113 weeks left.
XBI 2020 80/85 15 DTE rolled down to 80 at 43 DTE for 1.91 credit CB now 14.63. 61 weeks left to manage.
LNG 63 cc tomorrow rolled out 43 DTE and down to 61 for 1.97 credit. Cb now 59.27.
Bizarrely MU is up, go figure?!
As @kathycon said below, market is defying all patterns and seasonality this year, not quite and exact quote but close. Does the VIX need to spike to 50 before the selling is done? Who knows, trade smart, preserve capital, there will be big opportunities soon enough.
If the whippy settles down later my try some directional trades before the day is over.
Good luck, stay safe!