SPX 2dte makes another appearance

STO SPX Mar6 BeCS 2820/2825 @ .30 x4
BTC SPX Mar6 BuPS 2740/2735 @ .05 x4. Sold @ .30. Profit $100
STO SPX Mar6 BeCS 2820/2825 @ .25 x4
STO SPX Mar6 BuPS 2760/2755 @ .25×4
Full position on for this round.

I was planning to pause on the ICs due to low vol. Then the low vol went poof. Also, you could say that @hcgdavis made me do it.:-)
#spx1dte

#jadelizards, #lizardpies, #pietrades, #spikedjadelizard, #spycraft

Buh Bye NFLX #CostBasisReduction Winner…

Buh Bye NFLX #CostBasisReduction Winner

My NFLX saga ends today…with a bottle of champagne after the close. After the last earnings report when NFLX soared, I got the “great” idea to buy 100 shares at $358 and sell DITM calls for a guaranteed win. Within days there was a massive crash. I took inspiration from seeing @fuzzballl accomplish significant cost basis reduction with patience and perseverance. I vowed I would stick with this until it was profitable. Every single week I sold calls, and bought put butterflies (BWB debit flies). Most of the time they brought in nice credits, there were a few weeks that were debit rolls (debit rolls would step back cost basis those weeks), but I steadily took Cost Basis from $358 to $272. Today I was able to close out the full position for a net $1547 gain.

Question for @fuzzballl as I…

Question for @fuzzballl as I am debating closing some #fuzzy for tax purposes or keep them rolling.

Have a few that are way ITM now. Wish I had ratioed them in Oct. but too late now. Since you seem to be the only one with enough patience to take these to the end here are my questions

1. About how long does it take you to scratch the trade one ITM?

2. Seems like the best way to get any decent premium is to sell 43-45 DTE and reset at 22 DTE. Have you found that as well?

3. Once the new series of LEAP comes out does it make sense to roll the longs to the new leap for $3-4 or hang on to the one you have until the end?

Thanks!

I am debating taking some tax losses and resetting vs. hanging with the ones I have.

Hey Gang,

For those of you who wish to read this, here’s what’s been going on with me. I had already announced that I planned to retire in April, the volatility mess in Feb hurt, and it sucked big time, but it did not change the calculus on retirement plans. I have never mentioned this, on purpose, but worked for Rockwell Collins ($COL now part of $UTX) for 32 years. I had worked my way into a very unique position where I was the only person in the company doing what I did. I was involved in projects with very senior leaders where I wasn’t even allowed to tell my boss what I was doing. So, my retirement caused them some grief trying to figure out what to do since I could not be directly replaced by anyone in the organization. I spent Feb, Mar and April training a number of different people to take over the things I was working. That took all of my time and effort, so had to just walk away from the market altogether.

Even before the Feb mess occurred, I had been wanting to move away from what I was doing and head for futures day trading. I liked the idea of being able to be flat at the end of every day and not have to worry about after hour shenanigans, or what was happening in China, etc…. Had spent quite a bit of time picking @Fibwizard‘s brain and working on a strategy that would work for me. Once I retired, I dove pretty deep into it and figured out a good approach, but eventually had to look elsewhere. I had figured out a strategy that I could implement, and if I had still been working and at my computer all day, would have gone that way. But, with retirement, I didn’t want to spend all day staring at my screen waiting for the right setups. Lots of other things I wanted to do with my time.

Around that time @smasty160 told me about a guy named Tony Rago @ TheoTrade who was trading /NQ futures with other traders, calling out what they were doing real time in a live chat room. I spent some time studying his approach and watching. I then started paper trading it on TOS. The worst possible thing that could have happened, happened, for the next 3 weeks it worked beautifully and I killed it. So I decided to go live. First day, first trade ended up a very small loss, no biggie. Next trade, got long, and seconds later a Washington headline crushed the market and I had to hit eject as it just kept heading south, no rebound at all to give me a better exit. After what happened in Feb, the last thing I wanted was to be starting something new and losing money at it. So had to be back to paper trading. 3 weeks later when I had some confidence back and was consistently making money, first day back trading real money and you guessed it, bang, another headline hit while I was long and got crushed again.

Not much you can do about the headline risk, but the better I get at trading, the fewer trades I have to take to make my goal for the day and thus the less amount of time actually being exposed to the market.

His overall approach makes sense and Tony put a lot of time and effort into developing it, but I wasn’t really happy with it as is:
1) Sometimes it worked right away
2) Sometimes it worked but you had to deal with some heat first (never feels good as you don’t know if it will continue to go against you or not), which is OK with Tony, he accepts it as part of his thesis. Since it is his, and he put the time into developing it, he has that level of confidence in it. Me, not so much.
3) Sometimes it just plain didn’t work

I before I spent any more capital, I wanted try to figure out how to put the odds on my side

I needed a better set of rules to use.

I spent months fine tuning the approach, trading for a few weeks, analyzing failures. Lather, rinse, repeat. I’ve had times I went 3 weeks trading without a single loosing trade only to have it start to fail so spent more time tweaking. I have definitely put my time into it. I now have time frames, EMA’s and patterns identified that put the edge dramatically in my favor when entering a trade. Still working on my execution, having the patience to wait for the high probability setups and identifying them real time as they are developing, they are always obvious later looking at the chart :). I trade for about the first hour of trading, 1.5 hrs max.

On the flip side, retirement definitely doesn’t suck. I’ve been loving it.

MU #fuzzy Rolled 30 DTE…

MU #fuzzy

Rolled 30 DTE 50 call out to 44 DTE for 0.43 credit. Cb now 8.67. Briefly had a break even, need a few more rolls to put it solidly in the profit column.

SSO TQQQ new trades

Now that @smasty160 (Sue) has informally introduced the “lophir” to Options Bistro, I’ll start sharing some of my trades. By way of a quick refresher, the lophir trade consists of selling 30DTE 30/15 delta put credit spread x2 and buying a 40/22 delta put debit spread x 1. All of these trades are net credit. You may notice me tweaking delta and DTE at times. My goal is to make some quiet money on a low maintenance trade.

STO +5 1/-2/-1/2 SSO Sep21 124.5/123/120.5/118 PUT/PUT/PUT/PUT @ .55 credit. GTC order to close at .17
STO +4 1/-2/-1/2 TQQQ 100 Sep28 68/65.5/63/60 PUT/PUT/PUT/PUT @ .60 credit. GTC order to close at .18

Buyer beware. These trades are in the experimental stage. Current plan is to cut the delta in half when price hits the profit peak on the risk graph and cut it in half again when it hits the breakeven price or close the trade if it’s near expiration. Our backtesting indicated that we wouldn’t need to manage often but live trading can make a liar out of backtests.:-)

#putratiospread #lophir

#hedge Still raining here and…

#hedge

Still raining here and the VIX is down to 11.82. Cheapest time to put on a portfolio hedge. I fully expect these to expire and lose all my $ but 1-2 times a year it may be a lottery ticket! This is based on the recommendation from option income masters (a subset of OIB). They hedge the entire portfolio almost monthly, after a big drop they cash out and put the money back in at the bottom. They finance the hedges by selling other options.

I am only hedging my core account, everything else already spreads or cash hedged so BTO 2 SPX 2550 puts 35 DTE. In a 10% correction these should be worth 11-12k which would offset the losses on the account in a 10% correction and then could close for cash to redeploy.

Hope I don’t need it but will see how it works.