Question about Space Trip hedge (STT)

@smasty160
@winstonthink

I was modeling the STT trade in TOS and everything looks fine until I introduce IV increase. I would expect IV to increase in a case of a 10+% sell-off. With the IV increase of 10 points, the value of the STT is cut in half. This is for a well aged position, so a new position would be a loser anyway. This does not look like a good hedge.

I have noticed that presentations about STT definitely ignore ( if not refuse) to include the IV increase. I watched a number of them and every time all modeling is done without taking IV into consideration.

Am I missing something in the TOS model?

#bitty

Smasty – looking for input/comment

I established a CC + Put Protection (*.98) strategy for SDC. SDC has moved up from $9.72 to $12.10. I rolled the short calls from $9.50 to $11 to $12. The Put was at $8.50 and it is now worth $0. Would you usually roll the Put up when the stock runs up as the appreciation is no longer protected or just let the stock get called (assuming it stays above $12) away and do a reset.

#protectiveput, #2-i, #coveredcalls

EWZ

KODK

EWZ Roll: I’m following along w/ @winstonthink ‘s ITM strangle leap w/ weekly straddle sales. I think you guys are calling these #diagonalbutterfly ‘s I’m rolling the weekly straddles at 50% profit.
Core Strangle Leap: Jan 2022 27 call/37 put @ $16.72. Max risk on a 1-lot is $672
Straddle 1 Aug 7 32’s sold at $1.40, covered at $.70 ($70)
Straddle 2 Aug 14 32’s sold at 1.60 covered at $.80 ($80)
Straddle 3 Aug 21 31.5’s sold at 1.50 today
Once $672 profit is realized on the straddles I will add a 2nd leap strangle. My objective is to get to a ratio sell situation where there is always more net long contracts than short, for a beneficial long vega position where all risk has been covered.

KODK….ugh rookie rookie here!
At about $35 I placed a ratio put spread/combo fly at 25/30 for 5.65 cr and a 15/10/7.5 put BWB fly for 1.25 debit. This gave me a breakeven of about 10.68. And a max loss of $5K on stock assignment with stock going to zero. Subsequently I closed the put debit component of the put ratio (30/25) for 4.85 taking 97% of available max profit.
I added a Sep 15/17.5 ATM (at the time) Call Credit spread for .88, and also added a DITM put Sep 20-strike. At this point it surely looks like a stock assignment is inevitable, so it’s about collecting as much as I can until then to lower the cost basis. These things can reverse on news, so trying to collect cash but not dig too big a hole on a reversal. This will be the classic Option Bistro game–that so many of you have mastered— to patiently and persistently work the basis. What a management team disaster on this. Queue the lawsuits!

#SueCollar TGT One of the…

#SueCollar TGT

One of the collars I had set up was on TGT, which of course had earnings today. The original stock purchase was at $111.84, and after a roll last week, was protected down to around $96. It’s really run away to the upside. There is plenty of premium in the position still, especially since the Dec13 short 96 puts have become very illiquid. It looks to me that the 300 share position will net out around $503 in profit (including the dividend) by the Dec 13 expiration, a hold of about 2 months. This would equate to roughly an 8% annualized return….right in my target. The ROR is huge given the risk controls in this strategy.

A couple comments on this:
1. TGT is an interesting hold for this strategy due to their dividend timing. Since the ex div is the day before earnings, it is really hard to lose shares to someone wanting to take the dividend—since the short calls retain such high premium the day before earnings.
2. This is a perfect example of having to stay focused on a low-risk/low-return strategy. If the loss of the put premium is too much to bear, it’s the wrong strategy for you (you might be saying “coulda woulda shoulda made $4600 just holding shares vs $503 on the collar”). I get it, it’s valid. But I really appreciate the controlled risk on these things, the easy sleep at night.

On a side note, since I’ve been training intensely on vol for a couple years at Option Pit, I decided there needs to be more vol strategy folded into the collars. I’m now trying to keep the vol spread at less than 3 points between the calls being sold and the puts being bought. To accomplish this the calls need to be sold ITM, vs ATM. ITM calls have a higher vol to counter the higher vol of OTM puts.

Let me know if there’s any interest in this going forward–I get if it’s too boring 🙂

Sue