Upside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator The $VIX just took out the Upside Warning by 1-point. We need to close at 16.97 or higher for this to be a Downside Warning.

Upside Warning pullbacks

#VIXIndicator Since we’re in this pullback I looked back at other times we had a signficant pullback (more than 1%) after an Upside Warning fires. The chart below shows all of the instances since 1999. Two of them resulted in no new highs, and we dropped significantly before the Upside Warning was technically canceled (the […]

Upside Warning performance metrics

#VIXIndicator Because I’m becoming an Excel geek, I made a new chart measuring a performance metric for the Upside Warning. This shows the rise we have gotten from past Upside Warnings in relation to how much the SPX had already recovered before the Warning hit. For instance, the upper-left-most dot represents a 32.2% rise in […]

VIX upside trades

Bot QQQ Mar 8 175c, SPY 277.5c, IWM 154c. First small layer. Trading very carefully in case the rally doesn’t materialize. Added another layer of SPY, QQQ, and IWM calls. Same strikes. Better price. Will hedge with VIX calls near the close if the downside wins today. #vixindicator

Upside Warning coming

#VIXIndicator Here’s the version of the past results I posted back in May. The blue bars with numbers on top represent the percentage move UP from the close of an Upside Warning day to the eventual SPX high before another pullback. The numbers at the bottom of each bar are the percentage move DOWN of […]

One more…

#VIXIndicator one more day with a $VIX close below 16.47 and we have an Upside Warning. I think today’s action foretells we are headed that way.

Downside Warning canceled!

#VIXIndicator Today’s $VIX close ends the 4-month Downside Warning. If we get two more closes at or below 16.47, it will trigger an Upside Warning, which usually means a strong rally for a few days or weeks.