Replacing the 2095 calls I had to close this morning for 4.70.
Sold to Open Nov 13th 2020/2040/2125/2145 iron condors for 3.00. 1.66x position size.
Monthly Archives: November 2015
BOIL call
Added one more ETF on intraday Nat Gas reversal; new high in $BOIL
STO BOIL March 35 call for 2.30.
Closed SPX 2095 calls
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX 2095 Nov 6th short calls for 4.70. Missed my shot to get out below 2.00. Action looks bullish, so not risking the possibility of ending the day above 2100. Will look to get a few cents extra by selling the long 2120 calls if I can. Also will look for a roll candidate spread.
Up from here?
Looks like downside could be finished
TICKs still bearish, but $SPX moving up
Contango ETF madness
STO $DUST Dec 11th 30 call for 1.25
BTC $NUGT Dec 18th 60 call for .40. Sold for 6.50 on Oct 9th
BTC $NUGT Jan ’16 60 call for .90. Sold for 8.50 on Oct 14th
BTC $NUGT March ’16 75 call for 1.50. Sold for 11.00 on Oct 15th
BTC $ZSL Dec 80 put for .30. Sold for 1.75 on Oct 28th
STO $ZSL Nov 20th 120 call for 2.60
STO $ZSL Jan ’16 145 call for 2.70
STO $ZSL Feb 165 call for 2.55
SPX 6-hour put spread
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 6th 2075/2060 put spreads for 1.00. More available now, but you’d have to act quickly. Stop is at 3.00.
Closed STMP puts
#Earnings Bought to close $STMP Nov 20th 60 puts for .10. Sold yesterday for .90
Closed DATA calls
#Earnings Bought to close $DATA 99 calls for 3.20… taking a loss on the trade before it gets too high. Sold the strangle yesterday for 1.95.
Good morning – Fri Nov 6th
Good news on the jobs front… futures down on the news, but could end the day anywhere. I need to exit an $SPX 2095/2120 call spread at some point. If we are strong up I will also look for an aggressive roll of the 2075/2100 I closed last night, as well as another Dec 4th call spread.
$DATA earning huge, will try to close 99 short calls early to avoid an intraday surge to 100 or higher. $STMP play a slam dunk, stock up huge.
Gold & Silver look to be tanking. Look for opportunities for call sales in $DUST and $ZSL.
SPX call spreads and NON-Farm Payrolls
Closed for 18.60. Will look to replace with another aggressive spread tomorrow or next week.
SPX call spreads and NON-Farm Payrolls
I am planning to close at least one of my threatened SPX call spreads before the close, and it will probably be the ITM Nov 6th 2075/2100 that I sold on Monday. The reason is, if we move higher on the report, this spread will become completely ITM, cost 25.00 to close, and will be very difficult to roll (since you cannot get 25.00 for ITM spread that have time premium in them). If you followed me into that spread, consider this to avoid the chance of ending higher than 2100 tomorrow.
WEBINAR Link info – November 5, 2015
Hello, here is the link to today’s webinar! Please reply here if you haven’t yet signed up and would like to attend. There are a couple spots left. OR, if you signed up but now cannot make it, please reply as well.
Jeff Payne is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.
Topic: SPX Campaign Webinar
Time: Nov 5, 2015 2:00 PM (GMT-8:00) Pacific Time (US and Canada)
Join from PC, Mac, Linux, iOS or Android:
STMP Earnings Trade
Sold to open $STMP Nov 20th 60 puts for .90.
I haven’t traded this one before, and even though it is 16 days to expiration, the premium is jacked for options 20.9% OTM. It mostly has moved UP on earnings. Historical volatility shows we should see a huge drop in premium tomorrow.
| Biggest UP move: 27.7% | Biggest DOWN move: -16.1% | Average move: 16.4% |
| Aug. 6, 2015 AC | 27.74% |
| May 7, 2015 AC | 20.40% |
| Feb. 11, 2015 AC | 19.45% |
| Nov. 5, 2014 AC | 13.08% |
| July 30, 2014 AC | -8.31% |
| April 30, 2014 AC | -16.10% |
| Feb. 13, 2014 AC | -6.93% |
| Oct. 23, 2013 AC | 12.96% |
| July 31, 2013 AC | 9.45% |
| April 24, 2013 AC | 27.07% |
| Feb. 13, 2013 AC | -14.62% |
| Oct. 25, 2012 AC | 20.18% |
Selling Calls ZSL, DUST
Added more:
STO $BOIL March 50 call for 1.05
STO $BOIL March 30 call for 3.50. Not far OTM, I know, but this one is the perfect Contango ETF, always headed down.
DATA earnings trade
#Earnings Sold $DATA 69/99 strangles for 1.95. Over all of its earnings announcements (10):
| Biggest UP move: 17.2% | Biggest DOWN move: -10.7% | Average move: 9.3% |
These strikes are 17.9% OTM.
SPX Dec 4th (2nd) put spread
#SPXcampaign STO Dec 4th $SPX 1940/1915 put spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 2092. This is the second and final put spread for the week of Dec 4th. I have one call spread remaining to sell for that week… possibly wait for next week if we get no more upside move this week.
Adding NXPI puts
#Earnings I’m playing both sides of this after being assigned stock, and no watching it gyrate as it creeps its way back up. Sold covered calls earlier this week. Now today:
STO $NXPI Nov 13th 75 puts for .70
Selling Calls ZSL, DUST
Moves in the metals today giving opportunity:
STO $DUST Dec 18th 30 call for 1.00
STO $DUST March 18th 55 call for 1.25
STO $ZSL Nov 20th 120 call for 1.90
STO $ZSL Feb 150 call for 3.40
A Case For Caution for the Bulls
Good Morning – Thurs Nov 5
#Earnings Watching $FB, up on earnings, to settle down back below 107 by Friday’s close to collect best profits in the iron butterflys.
Reporting tonight of Fri morning with high IV: $DATA, $DIS, $MNST, $SWKS, $TRIP, $WTW. Let us know if you’re looking at these or others.
#SPXcampaign, another Dec 4th call spread may be obtainable on this pop up, but may wait for jobs report. Consider any spreads you have that are close or past their stops for closing today, as the jobs report could cause big movement at tomorrow’s open.
#ContangoETFs, Silver down again in pre-market, so call selling in $ZSL is getting juicier.
ZSL short calls
Sold to open these $ZSL calls, as silver falls back from its recent rise. ZSL has been a dream ETF, hovering around 100 for a couple years now, meaning we can continue to sell premium on either side without much concern of breakout. That said, one look at monthly chart warns us to be careful on put side, but carefree on the call side.
STO ZSL Dec 130 call for 2.00
STO ZSL May 165 call for 4.60
FB earnings iron butterfly
Also, Sold to Open $FB Nov 6th 99/104/109 iron butterfly for 4.00. Moved everything a strike higher, now have a wider profit range. Expiration breakevens: 99.54 – 107.46. Max profit $700, max loss $209.
REGN strangle CLOSED
#Earnings BTC $REGN Nov 6th 520/620 strangles for .45. Sold yesterday for 3.20.
FB earnings iron butterfly
Sold to Open the $FB Nov 6th 98/103/108 iron butterfly for 4.00.
Trying for a 1-lot for now, may add more or different strikes later in day. If you have questions on how to trade this, let me know.
SPX Nov 13th iron condor ROLL
This condor I sold yesterday is now going for about 3.30. The call side premium is the same, but put premium has increased. If you didn’t take the trade, you can get more now, or move your strikes farther out.
FB earnings trade
IV and premium are not too high. I am thinking an iron butterfly may be better than selling naked. The 98/103/108 fly sells for 4.00, with max risk of 1.00. Any other ideas?
Earnings Update – TSLA and REGN
Both of these trades look decent this morning. TSLA iron condor could be threatened on the call side with three days until expiry… I will look to close the 235/240 spread when I can without cutting in to my 1.00 credit too much.
REGN 520/620 strangle looks pretty safe to expire, but I will likely try to close early to avoid any biotech surprises.
Morning Plan – Wed Nov 4
FB earnings tonight, so I’ll be looking at potential trades, as well as checking out WFM, FEYE, CELG. Let me know of any earnings plays you’re looking at.
SPX continues its climb. Please obey your call spread stops. If you plan to roll up to a new call spread, be sure to wait for spikes or moves higher. The action remains bullish, so limit your risk. Do NOT follow me on the ITM spreads if you’re not comfortable with them. They can strain your account and your nerves if you are not prepared.
New Look
Good morning. I have designed a new layout for easier use.
- Now, on the left of the screen, you can quickly link to each strategy category.
- Under the categories is a search field which allows you to find posts with any keyword or stock symbol.
- Also on the left, is the “Home” button, which will return you to the entrance page where all posts are visible, with most recent on top.
- Under each post’s title you will see the number of comments, or if there are none, it will read “Leave A Comment,” for quick access.
- NOTE: You’ll need to fill in your name and email for your first comment, but thereafter it should be filled in for you. Email addresses will NOT be displayed to other users.
- THIS WILL CHANGE AGAIN as more contributors are added. Thanks for your patience!
Please reply to this post if you have any feedback or feature suggestions!
Closing thoughts 11/3
Another crash-up day, although an end-of-day drop and minor VIX spike could mean we are at a consolidation point. Try to keep all call spreads above the all-time highs of 2130. TSLA is dropping into close… did someone hear something early? Watching that tonight, and REGN in the morning.
Have a great night.
SPX Nov 13th iron condor ROLL
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Nov 13th 2025/2050/2150/2175 iron condors for 2.80, with SPX at 2110. This is another roll spread to make back some losses from stopped call spreads.
NXPI covered calls
#Earnings… I was assigned $NXPI stock at 86 on Friday, cost basis 85.00. Yesterday I sold some puts, but today I’m selling calls…
Sold to Open NXPI Nov 6th 84 covered call for .25
Sold to Open NXPI Nov 13th 85 covered call for .40
Sold to Open NXPI Nov 20th 85 covered call for .95
REGN Earnings Trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $REGN Nov 6th 520/620 strangles for 3.20.
| Biggest UP move: | 7.4% | Biggest DOWN move: | -6.1% | Average move: | 4.2% |
These strikes are 9.4% and 8.0% OTM respectively. Small position (2-lot) due to high strike price. REGN can be volatile, especially when the biotech sector overall is, but it has not moved over 8% in the 5-day period after earnings since July 2012. You could even add protection and make this a condor, possible by playing intraday swings to add the longs, or we may see premium go down into the close.
VLO short calls
Sold to Open $VLO Nov 6th 70 calls for .35 and .40. These are “against” my short stock position I was assigned Friday at 65.00. This was an earnings play I could have exited for cheap earlier in the week, but stayed in for the expiration and it ran away. Bullish action continues… I know these calls increase my risk rather than mitigate it, but haven’t had the opportunity to sell covered puts. Chart looks pretty strong on this one so I will work to adjust my cost basis lower if it does not pause on its trend soon.
TSLA earnings
Over last 12 earnings for TSLA:
| Biggest UP move: | 24.4% | , | Biggest DOWN move: | -14.5% | , | Average move: | 9.7% | . |
Fuzzball suggests: TSLA – 185/235 strangle @ 2.75 right now. May widen that this afternoon. NP yet…
These strikes are 12.5% OTM on downside but only 10.7% on upside. I am comfortable with 185, as that area has been support before, but 235 is a bit close for me. Plus, I have had a few earnings trades go against me this quarter, so am more risk averse than usual. Therefore, I’m using Fuzzball’s strikes but making it a spread:
Sold to Open: $TSLA Nov 6th 180/185/235/240 iron condors for 1.00.
WEBINAR – SPX Strategy – Thursday, November 5th, 5p ET
Thanks for following me on the OptionsBistro blog!
I will be holding a webinar this week on the SPX campaign strategy. I started trading it last December and have been developing it while trading it since then. It is turning a decent profit for the year. It took some losses at the end of August, but it also allowed me to develop a “stop trading” signal for downside corrections that I have backtested. Now I have also discovered a similar signal for upside risk, which has caused several call spreads to be closed in October.
I have added these indicators to my presentation, so you are invited to attend a free webinar this Thursday, November 5th, at 5pm ET/2pm PT. I will cover the basics of putting on the trades, and then managing the trades and your portfolio. There’s a lot to cover so it will take about 90 minutes.
There are only 25 spaces so I will accept participants on a first-come, first-served basis. Please reply to this post below if you want to attend, and I will send you a link on Thursday. If you miss this one, there will be future webinars, and I will post the PDF on the blog as well.
Many thanks, hope to see you Thursday!
SPX Dec 4th put spread
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 4th 1950/1925 put spreads for 1.25. First of two put spreads I will sell this week in the Dec 4th expiry.
SPX morning plan
It may not be much of a morning dip, but it is time to sell a put spread for the Dec 4th expiry (5 weeks out).
NXPI puts
#Earnings STO $NXPI Nov 6th 73 puts for .60. Adding some more premium to my stock position, assigned at 86 on Friday.
SPX crashing up
This is panicked buying and/or short selling. First of the month could also play a role.
This is a difficult move for the SPX strategy. I am remaining patient and will wait for the pullback. If one does not come, I will work any ITM positions to move them to higher strikes with market swings.
The key is being comfortable holding these positions for many days or weeks. If it does not affect your ability to enter other trades, then patience should prevail. If it does limit you, then you should probably avoid ITM rolls completely. If you sold the one this morning, I would still wait for a swing low this week to exit near break-even.
Feel free to comment here or email me if you have questions.
-JP
ETF, VXX, and Earnings CLOSING trades
BTC $BOIL March 66 call for .55. Sold for 2.85 on Sept 16th.
BTC $ZSL Nov 20th 85 put for .20. Sold for 1.25 last Wednesday.
BTC $NUGT Dec 18th 75 call for .60. Sold for 6.50 on Oct 9th.
BTC $UVXY Nov 27th 80 call for .34. Sold for 1.75 on Oct 13th.
BTC $TWTR Nov 13th 36 covered calls for .05. Sold for .69 last Tuesday
BTC $TWTR Nov 13th 37 covered calls for .03. Sold for .60 last Tuesday.
These were all GTC orders placed last week that filled today.
SPX Nov 19th put spread closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 19th 1860/1835 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.25 on Oct 19th.
This was a fill on the GTC order I placed immediately after selling the spread on the 19th.
SPX ITM spread: Nov 6th 2075/2100
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Nov 6th 2075/2100 call spreads for 14.55. Rolling from the 2070/2095 spread closed Friday for 14.20
SPX Dec 4th 2170/2190 call spreads
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open SPX Dec 4th 2170/2190 call spreads for 1.25.
This is the first of two call spreads and two put spreads I will try to sell this week for the Dec 4th expiry..
ZSL calls
Sold to Open $ZSL Dec 130 call for 1.75.
Sold to Open $ZSL Jan 140 call for 2.20
Selling this week: SPX Dec 4th spreads
This week, I am looking 5 weeks out as usual and selling spreads for the Dec 4th expiration. As Monday mornings are usually great for premium selling, I am starting with the Dec 4th 2170/2195 call spread for 1.25. Order is in, I will wait for a fill.
When we get any kind of down move, I will try to sell Dec 4th put spreads.
SPX ITM spread update
Friday, I had to close the Oct 30th 2070/2095 spread for 14.20. I did not get to sell another ITM spread to replace it, so will look to on up moves today.
Allowing a spread to get ITM is not ideal, but I have on occasion allowed it to happen with call spreads. When SPX feels toppy, as I feel it is now, it is pretty certain that we will be below current levels at some point in the near future. Therefore, you can roll an ITM spread each week until you get the pullback. I did not try this on the move up from 1900 to here… VIX was plummeting and we were screaming higher. But once here, near 2100 and not far from all-time highs… the VIX has stopped dropping dramatically, so I feel comfortable with it.
Again, not ideal, and many will not be comfortable with 10-20 dollar spread in their account. But if you employ patience, it can become easy.
But best bet is just to use more disciplined stocks and get out long before ITM happens, then roll at more comfortable prices.
Options Bistro 