NFLX closed

#Earnings Bought to close $NFLX 345/355-365/375 #IronCondor for 4.15 and 4.16. Sold yesterday for 8.35. With price at dead center, taking profit and running as NFLX may still move big. Can’t Truss It.

NFLX tight condor

#Earnings Sold to Open $NFLX Apr 18th 345/355-365/375 #IronCondor for 8.35.

Risking 1.65 to make 5.00-7.00. Max win is about 8.35 but that’s only if I wait for expiration on Thursday. I’ll look to close this when (and if) stock price gets close enough to my 10-point center range for a profit.

NFLX often gaps big, but then sometimes will fade for the rest of the day (or two days). This is a smaller position as probability is lower and I don’t want to lose the max on a large position.

PNC up and out

#Earnings I played this one exactly right… slightly bearish lean. Today’s +3.1% day is the highest one-day move up after earnings since January 2013. So, expiring with 3.00 exercise cost, $PNC #IronCondor, sold yesterday for 2.00.

PNC (slightly) bearish condor

#Earnings Sold $PNC Apr 12th 124/127-128/131 #IronCondor for 2.00.

Risking 1.00 to make 2.00. Sightly bearish due to its recent history.

PNC earnings analysis

#Earnings $PNC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Comparing 1-point-wide, 3-point-wing #IronCondor trades, PNC comes out with a much better R/R than does $JPM. PNC has a slightly lower average move, but weighted toward downside.

Jan. 16, 2019 BO +0.07%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -5.58% Biggest DOWN
July 13, 2018 BO +0.23%
April 13, 2018 BO -4.11%
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +0.23%
Oct. 13, 2017 BO -1.12%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.11%
April 13, 2017 BO -0.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.72% Biggest UP
Oct. 14, 2016 BO +0.10%
July 15, 2016 BO -0.96%
April 14, 2016 BO -0.56%

Avg (+ or -) 1.16%
Bias -0.94%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 128.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 124.74 to 132.26
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 127.01 to 129.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.6%): 121.33 to 135.67
Based on UP max only (+0.7%): 129.43

Open to requests for other symbols.

DAL earnings analysis

#Earnings $DAL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.16%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO +3.56%
July 12, 2018 BO +1.78%
April 12, 2018 BO +2.93%
Jan. 11, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
Oct. 11, 2017 BO +0.70%
July 13, 2017 BO -1.76% Biggest DOWN
April 12, 2017 BO -0.52%
Jan. 12, 2017 BO -1.06%
Oct. 13, 2016 BO +1.88%
July 14, 2016 BO +3.58%
April 14, 2016 BO +0.93%

Avg (+ or -) 1.97%
Bias 1.41%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 57.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 54.79 to 59.21
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 55.88 to 58.12
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 54.29 to 59.71
Based on DOWN max only (-1.8%): 56.00

Open to requests for other symbols.

#ironcondor, #pietrades

#ironcondor TSLA Sold May 17,…

#ironcondor TSLA

Sold May 17, 215/220/320/325 for 1.83.