June 22 TGIF!

SPX: The first trade I got off at the open was a new #UndieBear Aug 2785p x2 @52.00 Jun 29 2750p x -1 @ $10.80. No profit ceiling on a downside move.

CVX: Rolled calls into strength from jun 22 to jun 29, netted $330 on roll of 3 calls. Jun 29 126 @ 1.68.

IWM: I have a #Saf-T on this with short calls at 168.50…so dancing around the roll on this to get as much premium collection as I can.

LMT: The bulk of my calls were rolled on Wed, but I have two stragglers that I will let expire and sell new near the close (naked for an hour).

Oh, RHT: I got cute on the dive last night and bought 100 shares @ 150 expecting a snap back. So now I have a #CoveredCall . Sold Jun 29 $150 call for $1.10.

That’ll be about it for today.

Sue

IWM rolled Jun 22 168.5 to Jun 29 168 (went down, itm). Netted $494 on a 13-lot.

I ended up keeping 82% of premium sold for this week: Collected 17,917, kept 14,722.

Oh, almost forgot. The #Fundie maybe not so bueno. Rolled down calls for jun 29 on NVDA/ADBE/BABA to collect some add’l premium for next week. Kept same expiration.

Jun 21 Happy Summer!

1. SPX #UndieBear I just took $1290 profit in one day. This is a highly responsive trade to the combo of vol increase and price decrease. Market Profile is showing a developing 45 degree line for today, meaning folks are getting short in the hole. So decided to take profits. (Whoops scratch that on the 45 degree line, it looked like it was holding as support, but it broke)

2. Was at the hospital all day so took off the AMZN “vol fly” at the open so I wouldn’t have to manage it. Saw an $88 loss. I slipped in the close order before the drop in AMZN…it would have been fine in my fly range, but would have had some short term pain on it.

3. New AMZN trade: AMZN/XLY #DoubleRatioUndie AMZN is too expensive to double-undie, so I’m using XLY as a proxy for the put side. AMZN: Aug 1700c x2@106.15/Jun 29 1745c x-1 @19.30 XLY Aug 113 p x10 @2.93/June29 111p x -8@.63. The XLY side removes about 20% of the risk on the AMZN side.

4. TQQQ roll #Saf-T : Rolled Jun 22 to Jun 29, netted $4660 on the Jun 22’s. Rolled same qty but dropped to 62.5’s for 1.38.

5. Added an MU #DoubleRatioUndie at the open this morning: Sep 57.5c x10 @7.65/Jun 29 62c x -8 @1.39, Sep 62.5p x 2 @5.35/Jun 29 60 p x -1 @1.15. Max loss about $4800, gain at $62 next week is $1302. Premium sold for next week = 16% of risk.

Only two things left to manage tomorrow: CVX and IWM.

Jun 20 Sue Trades

AMZN “vol fly” Price is sliding down the T+1 line slope, so flattened delta by buying 10 shares of stock @ 1750.11.

SPX: #UndieBear I needed a little downside balance against my long portfolio, so here’s the first Undie bear. Bought Aug 2800 put x2 @ 60.50, sold 1x Jun27 2750 put @10.00. The ratio means there is no profit ceiling on a downside move. 20-day historical vol is under 10%, so buying low here. The trade has over 700 vega, any down move and this should explode.

AAL: Abandoned this position due to poor technicals. Net loss $434.00 on a 10×8 #Undie with a couple rolls. This was a July long too, so wanted to get as much salvage value as I could on the long before accelerated decay. This was a Mark Sebastian pick that I followed. At one point it had very nice profit, but I was piggie 🙂

GS: Rolled calls from Jun 22 to Jun 29, 235 to 232. Netted $946 on 5 lot on Jun 22, Jun 29 sold for $1.52x 5. This is another position I’m not happy holding. Earnings coming up in a few weeks, so I’ll collect some additional rolls on this. GS: Added an in-out put bear spread for more short delta: jul 13 230/225 @ 2.36 x4. I like to butterfly these after a favorable move to lock in some profit.

ROKU: Closed #Fundie for target 20% profit, $165 net. Will evaluate a reset. ROKU is dropping off the Fundie list, Ms. Cash and I have a list of about 22 good Fundie candidates, and ROKU didn’t make the cut.

MSFT: New #Fundie in the earnings cycle for a pre-ER price/vol run up. Jul 20 100 c x6@4.05/Jul 6 103c x -4 @ 1.04. Target profit is 20%, $805 (this target might be a bit high).

PYPL: Closed #Undie for $817 profit. I’ve had a couple of these lately where nice profits evaporated. Plus just found out I might be called away from the trading desk temporarily, so decided to TTMAR. It was a 16×13…so had higher risk.

MA: Closed #Fundie for $135 profit….might be called away on an emergency so clearing out a few things. This was a 3×2.

SPOT: Closed #Fundie for same reason as above. Up $540 today, net $70 profit. 3×2.

Jun 19 Sue Thread

Hi Everyone! I’ve got a little rolling activity here:

BA: First this was a #DoubleUndie from Jun 14. In two accounts I had to close the 2×1 put ratios due to the extrinsic on the short puts running out of gas. This brought a profit of about $2900. Then I rolled my Jun 22 365 and 372 calls to July 6 365 calls, and added extra calls to convert the trade from an Undie to a #Diagonal . I netted $2742 on the Jun 22 calls. My net credit accrual on BA = 73% of the losses (I rechecked my math, was way better than I thought). So there is damage control to be done. One of my longs is Aug, one is Sep….so lots of rolling opps here. I have the spirit on this one to fight it out 🙂 I’ve got good starting baseline numbers, so I’ll always know where I am in recovery of losses.

SPY: Rolled some #Saf-T trade calls from Jun 20 to Jun 27. Netted $737 on the rolls. The Jun 20 calls were pretty cheap due to divs last week and lowered premium. I rolled from 278 to 277 for .71 on the new 277’s. BTW, all the Saf-T puts are up huge…they be doing their job.

Coming into the week I had $17,917 in short call premium (Jun 22 exp)….it’s helping, but it’s quite an ugly day here.

MCD: Rolled Jun 22 calls to Jun 29, collected $444 on the jun 22 170’s and rolled to 167.5 @.94 and added qty 2. This converts Undie to #Diagonal.

NFLX: Converted #Fundie to #DoubleFundie using this strong day to cut risk. Added a Jul 13/Jun 29 2×1 put ratio. Before add on max risk: $4000; after add max risk: $1110. Nice profit opp still in the trade, $800-$1200 on small continued upside. Downside BE shifted to $386. Jul 13 397.5 p x2 @14.05, Jun 29 390 p x -1 @7.05.

NFLX: Closed full position for $789 net profit

LMT: I guess the senate blocked their delivery of jets to Turkey. Did a partial roll of calls (qty 4 in 2 accts) from Jun 22 to Jun 29 rolled from 317 to 315. Netted $1208 on the Jun 22. Sold Jun 29 for only .68. Still have 2 calls at a diff strike to roll this week.

June 18 Sue Thread

ADBE: First #Fundie close for 20%, $425 in one day. This was a 30/14 3×2 time ratio. Trade reset immediately as per the backtest: Jul 13 252.5 x 3, jun 29 257.5 x -2 @ 18.35. I am starting with positive gamma/positive theta on this trade…which is kind of a unicorn 🙂

ROKU: Closed #Undie for $844 profit, reset as a #Fundie Jul 13 43.5 call x3, Jun 29 46.5 call x-2 @8.07.

On both of these trades I should have shifted dates to Jul 20/ Jul 6.

SPOT: #Fundie new test trade here: Jul 20 170 call x3 @10.20 Jul 6 177.5 c x -2 @4.30, target profit $440 for 20%.

MA: New #Fundie Jul20 197.5c x 3, jul 6 202.5 c x -2, @15.20 $300 target profit for 20%.

Here’s backtests on these (parameters: 30 day 63 delta long, 14 day 45 delta short, take profit at 20% and reset):

Fundies

June 15 Trades

Happy Friday Everyone!
I didn’t have a ton going, ‘cept for one big thing. That later.
IWM: #Saf-T 1000 shares called, net profit $1200. Reset 1500 @ 167.66, 14x jul 27 166 puts @ 2.10, Jun 22 168.5 calls x13 @ .70

I was squirming bad this morning with a ton of SPY shares on and no short calls against them. Luckily the market rebounded, I got some short calls for next Wednesday in the book. I can sleep at night when I know my short calls are on. I’m not kidding when I say it felt really uncomfortable not having them. I will change this strategy next quarter so that calls are always on regardless of dividends.

BA…ugly, but I’m not too concerned. Got lots of hedges on, got a put diagonal kicker, so far it’s looking like a retracement. Maybe even the handle of a cup forming.

Ok…beware when @kathycon MamaCash and I open the lab. We can stay up all night online battering trade designs about and running backtests. We are ALWAYS taking established designs, or other people’s ideas, and reworking them for the best success rates, highest profits, lowest risk.

We reworked the dates and ratios on #Undies last night. I think you should let us test these out a bit. But what we discovered by backtesting is that a 30day long with a 14 day short in a .66 ratio (3×2, 6×4, 20×13) yields a much higher return on margin than using the longer dates. Because the 30-day longs are cheaper, there is less risk, which directly affects the return. These trades go on with a slight positive gamma, slight negative theta, positive vega…so kind of nice greeks on these. All of the 1-year returns we are looking at are really high, like 300% to 1200% (return on margin risk).

Consider these “petri dish” trades right now…we’ll run ’em down and report on effectiveness.

Between the two of us we have a lot of 3×2 tests on now in NVDA, ADBE, BABA, NFLX…and some others. We will report on the effectiveness of this.

Here is an example of one I have on BABA: Jul 13 202.5 call 3x @ 9.20/Jun 29 210 call 2x @ 3.40.

Everyone have a safe weekend!

Sue

p.s. premium collection this week was $14,811, 90% of what I sold. Good week!

#fundie

TQQQ Dividend next week…..not

TQQQ for Div’s has been a little confusing. TOS shows a 6%+ yield, but the TQQQ pro shares website shows only 3 dividends have been paid in 10 years, for a fractional penny. TOS could not help me w/ an answer to this, they suggested I email ProShares. I received a fast response confirming that they are on a quarterly distribution schedule, but the last div paid out was in 2015. So anyone in a TQQQ covered for next week, almost minuscule div risk on that.

IWM div is next week though!