Feb 15 #Fuzzy Land
Whew! Sea sick anyone?
1. Closed yesterday’s SPY #AtomicFuzzy for 41% profit on the core trade, total of $580. During the brief market swoon today I thought I’d take the profit. I didn’t anticipate the huge up move that followed.
My future Atomics will be set with April expiration unless I specifically want a quick flip.
2. Opened a new AAPL Atomic Fuzzy: Apr 170/170/165 @ 6.39 x 2, 180/185 Call Credit Spread @ 1.35 x 4. AAPL had a nice MACD cross today on the daily.
3. Closed the 15 DIA Fuzzies that I opened yesterday for a $1700 profit.
4. Rolled hedges on the AAPL and FB fuzzy bears that are taking heat.
My CLOSED fuzzy total for the quarter now is $26,454. I sure would like to reclaim that 50-handle…but I’m still being cautious. This string of powerful up moves….not a single one of them is a 1-standard deviation move. How can that be, you ask? The down move on Feb 5 was 5.4 standard deviations….as long as that bar stays in the SD average for compilations, it will affect all other bars printing. So, even though I’m looking for 3 1-SD up bars to confirm the rally, I have to keep in mind that the bars are being tamped down by that massive Feb 5 bar. Any indicators that you use that are tied to standard deviations will be seeing the same skew.
Feb 14 #Fuzzy Land
Hi Everyone! I’m starting to take some new Fuzzy nibbles. I’m still not seeing the indicator that I want for a full blown rally, so I’m being very cautious with size. I’m still making the bulk of my daily money with NQ scalping right now.
AAPL Fuzzy bear (apr 165/165/170) only a teensy 2-lot. Closed hedge today
DIA regular fuzzy: Mar 274/274/245 @ 3.87 w/ 251 hedge, 15 contracts in 2 accounts
FB Fuzzy bear (apr 175/175/180 @ 6.16, removed hedge today, 5 contracts
IWM Regular Fuzzy (Mar 151/151/149) hedged w/ 151 (ITM)
MU Regular Fuzzy (Apr 42/42/40) w/ 43.5 hedge (close to ITM)
SPY #AtomicFuzzy (Mar 269/269/267 x10, 271/275 x20) did you catch this?
TBT Regular Fuzzy (Apr 39/39/37) unhedged
Who caught the Atomic Fuzzy? Don Kaufman at Theo Trade has an “Atomic Hedge” trade, where OTM puts are bought at a certain expiration, and using the same expiration a 2x OTM call spread is sold to cover the cost of the puts, all against a long underlying position. The trade hedges pretty well, while still offering long delta for continued move up. Of course after reading about it, my first thought was “Fuzzify it!” So by doing the same thing with a Fuzzy, the max loss is cut in half or more. I put my first one on today and I liked the movement it saw in the rally. What it does is build in the hedge up front, so you can set it and forget managing hedges.
Here’s my specfic trade on SPY:
1. Synthetic: Mar 269/269 for .51 cr x 10
2. Protective puts: Mar 267 for 4.33 x10
3. Atomic element: Mar 271/275 call credit spread 1.63 cr x 20
Regular Fuzzy max loss: $5451
Atomic Fuzzy max loss: $2560
It does suck away about 100 delta so it moves more slowly than a regular unhedged fuzzy. Also it needs to be managed early to avoid the upside “sea of death”. But it moved well in today’s rally and is designed for holding just a week or two with this DTE, or can be designed with a much longer DTE.
I’m a tester/tweaker on everything, this is the first test….so I’m happy to keep reporting on these as a few more test cases are created. Hey…it sure is nice to see the cost of fuzzies coming DOWN!! 🙂
Anyone with this fun little book, go to page 38. Since 1952 there are only two instances where a close below the Dow December low in Q1 did not result in additional down moves, on average another 10%. The December low was 23,921.90–so today we closed below that number.
Hey everyone, just wanted to pop in and let you know I’m trading VERY small. Just 1-2 lots of #Fuzzy . Mostly shorts. Fuzzies are very expensive now. It helps to hedge them since hedges are also expensive (credit). But hedging slows them down considerably in movement. I like to get out with 50-100% gains. Where I’m doing best now is scalping /NQ.
I’ve mentioned my ” #Augen Spike Code” in the past (From Jeff Augen’s book The Volatility Edge in Options Trading). It translates price action into standard deviations. It helped me find a crash indicator different from what everyone else was viewing. But I also found an important bottom indicator is when there are 3-out of-5 daily bars with 1-standard deviation up moves. .99 doesn’t count, must be over 1.0. Going back in time w/ the indicator I found anything less than 3-in-5 led to shallow false or short term rallies. So on rally days I’m watching and counting those bars.
Here’s the code if you want it: http://tos.mx/FnguWH
Feb 6 #fuzzy
I used the MU rally to liquidate. Liquidated MSFT too. FXE closed for 50% target. Lots of Fuzzy Bear trades today on SPY and QQQ have helped me reclaim over 50% of my YTD profits.
SPY bear: Feb 16 expiration, sell ATM call, Buy ATM put, Buy ATM+2 call. Do not hedge for fast movement with the market. Set a GTC-close so a cover order is in the system. (Tip: the fastest way to create a fuzzy close order is to open your “filled orders” right click on your order and “create opposite order”).
#Fuzzy assignment warning
Good morning everyone! Just want to throw out the possibility that if you have on Fuzzies with deep in-the-money short legs, there might be assignment activity due to margin calls. The higher the extrinsic value in those legs, the less likely–but anything can happen when forced liquidations kick in. Anyway this morning would be a good time to review fuzzy legs, and stay on top of any broker notifications.
Feb 5 #Fuzzy Land
I’m a bit shell shocked after these last 2 days. As I watched my January profits approaching a 50% retracement, it was time to liquidate almost everything to protect that level. By end of the day today my Jan profits have retraced 61.8%. An appropriate number for fib aficionados! Fuzzy bear trades brought salve in the way of $7243.00 today. Only a couple Fuzzies remain: MU (x3), MSFT. Added a new long fuzzy on IWM and TLT, and a fuzzy bear on FXE.
I’ve got a family member, C-level exec in a public company, called me 2 weeks ago, wanted me to design a trade for him to protect his employee stock options that he couldn’t sell until April 1. He was not ethically allowed to short his own company. “No Problem” I said, got the perfect trade for you! A 5-lot SPX unhedged fuzzy bear would give him $150K profit in a 10% correction, the trade was really cheap; about $24.00 (Mar29 2800/2800/2805). Tonight the trade costs $211.00. That’s $93,500 profit. Did he do the trade? No (but I didn’t either). Guess who called during the game last night in a bit of a panic. Yep.
Closed Fuzzies for the quarter profits were slashed to $26,584. But I know a LOT of people have lost everything they made in Jan, so I’m grateful that I’m still green for the year. Other than small fuzzy bears for quick flips, I’m really trying to wait for the Face-Ripping rally to set substantial bear trades.