Effective Upside warning possible

#VIXIndicator As I discussed last month, we are in a “double-header” downside warning which is rare. Rarer still is when the second warning does not print a higher VIX high or a lower SPX low. This makes it less clear when we get an Upside Warning. If we measure from the first warning’s spike, we will get the Upside with a close below 17.76 today (which is likely). If we go with the second warning, we have to wait for three closes below 12.61.

I suspect by the time we drop to 12.61, a sustained rally will already be underway. Because of last month’s head-fake, with three closes below 17.76 leading us right into more volatility, I remain cautiously optimistic for new market highs.

2 of 3 of 5: Not yet!

Y’all know I’m keenly watching for 1-standard deviation up moves in SPX. We need 3 1SD up moves in a 5-bar window (for historical rally confirmations). We got one on Thursday. Today’s slipped through the fingers, darnit. We got a .933–the rule is it must cross 1.0. Wed and Thur still fall into the 5-bar window.

#AlligatorFuzzy anyone? I have a new #Fuzzy! I believe this is the best one yet. The love-child of regular fuzzy and atomic fuzzy. I will do a full write up on it maybe later tonight. I really think you will find it very compelling.



Another Downside Warning possible?

#VIXIndicator We exceeded 25% above Thursday’s close which is an additional signal. Secondary signals/warnings like this can sometimes signal a bottom, but it’s impossible to be sure. For those keeping track on this double-header correction:

1/16: First signal of trouble ahead/cancel Upside Warning
1/26: SPX high
1/29: Downside WARNING
1/30: 2nd warning
2/2: 3rd warning
2/5: six warnings in one day (a record)
2/9: SPX low
2/23: downside warning canceled
2/28: New downside WARNING
3/22: 2nd and 3rd warnings
Today: SPX lowest since 2/9

Not good

#VIXIndicator Just a heads up that closes like this on a Friday don’t make for great Mondays. This will make 2 uglies in a row after yesterday… similar to that fateful weekend in August 2015.

Downside signal

#VIXIndicator — we just crossed an intraday signal above 22.25 on the $VIX. A close above this level will mean a Downside Warning.

VIX Indicator downside signal

#VIXIndicator we have gone above the trigger of 19.75. If we close above it, it will be a new assertion of the Downside Warning.


#VIXIndicator I don’t know about you, but after what we’ve been through since January, these two little up days on the VIX look like child’s play. I’m sure questioning this “Upside Warning,” but not sensing a lot of fear, despite two weak days.

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