#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning took effect on Monday after three consecutive closes of $VIX below the 78.6 Fib line drawn from pre-correction low and correction high. Expect higher prices in coming days or weeks.
Last two Upside Warnings:
Feb 5, 2021: close on that day: 3886. Subsequent high was 3950 on Feb 16. 6 trading days, +1.6%
Nov 11, 2020: close that day: 3585. Subsequent high was 3726 on Dec 18. 25 trading days, +3.9%
#VIXIndicator The VIX was headed for it at the close, but SPX making a new high beats it to the punch. Downside Warning is canceled. Now, three VIX closes below 22.30 mean an Upside Warning.
#VIXIndicator Expect lower levels in the coming days or weeks.
Last DW fired on Jan 27th. The SPX low was only two days later and we rebounded from there. So it was brief.
The one before that was on Sept 3, 2020. The SPX low was 3 weeks later on Sep 24th.
#VIXIndicator The $VIX spike above 26.67 just killed the Upside Warning. We’ll go into a Downside one if we close above it.
#VIXIndicator Well, that was a quickie. Back to the moon!
#VIXIndicator It was canceled at yesterday’s close. It went into effect at close on 1/27. Highest VIX and lowest SPX were on Friday 1/29. So it was a short one.
#VIXIndicator Over 25% higher at the close means new Downside Warning… we are likely to see lower prices in the coming days or weeks.
#VIXIndicator The Upside warning was canceled this morning, with the $VIX above 26.96. Could be a pause before it resumes, or we could be headed down. A Downside Warning would take effect with a VIX close above 26.96.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 3470/3490-3630/3650 iron condors for 1.20, SPX at 2566, IV 12.09%, deltas -.07,+.06
Expiring: Nov 20th 3485/3505-3640/3660 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15
#SPX7dteLong Expiring at max credit of 20.00: Nov 20th 3620/3600 put spreads. Condors bought Monday for 16.35.
#VIXIndicator The Upside Warning is not producing much yet, but the VIX action is so anemic that I don’t think we should be doubting it yet.
….at the open with SPX hitting new all-time highs. #VIXIndicator
#VIXIndicator A double warning today as $VIX closed up over 25% from yesterday’s close and is also up over 50% from the August 11th VIX low. Expect lower markets in the coming days or weeks.
Why is it still rising?
Earnings Season Shocker: FAAMG Earnings Grew By 2% While EPS For The Other 495 S&P Companies Plunged 38%.
Meanwhile the carnage among small caps was unprecedented with Russell 2000 EPS plunging by 97%.
“Goldman, which over the weekend turned incrementally more bullish on the economy and hiked its GDP forecast as it now expects that a covid vaccine will be discovered and widely distributed in Q1 2021, resulting in what Goldman believes will be a sharp jump in consumption in the first half of next year (whether that actually happens in a country where more than half refuse to get vaccinated is a different story completely), has done a post-mortem on Q2 earnings season and also found some more “good news.”
First, after expecting a 60% plunge in EPS in Q2, Goldman’s David Kostin was delighted to report that S&P 500 EPS declined by “only” 34% year/year, well above both consensus expectations for a -45% decline, and Goldman’s own forecast of a nearly double drop.”
The #VIXIndicator fired a bullish signal at the close. This indicates the likelihood of a further move higher in the coming days or weeks.
#VIXIndicator – Looks like we will get an Upside Warning at the close.
I have posted for the last two years about #DoubleHeaders, where we get a Downside Warning canceled, followed by another DW without an Upside in between. They have become more common and I have been getting a bigger database to analyze. I missed an Upside Warning on May 27th. The SPX closed at 3036 that day, then ran up to its recent high of 3233 on June 8th. After that, I tweaked the Indicator again so we can catch the rallies in the #DoubleHeader environment.
So if $VIX closes below 28.02 today, we can expect another run up. However I would say it is a less reliable Upside Warning with VIX still in the high 20’s.
#VIXIndicator Since 1999, what happened this week has happened once previously: a Downside Warning going into effect after it had been canceled, with no Upside Warning in between… and then that happening AGAIN. It’s a “triple-header” of Downside Warnings (DW).
The Downside Warning was reinstated on Wednesday after being canceled Monday. The DW that preceded the big drop was on February 24th, and that was a double-header already, after the first DW on January 27.
Double-headers usually result in the SECOND drop being deeper than the first. That certainly happened this time, with the second drop being exceeded only by the 2008 financial crisis. The only triple header before now was in 2007, when the second warning didn’t go as low as the first, but the third went lowest of all.
So we don’t have enough data to build a historical model of what we are in now. But it’s interesting to see the history of these market double/triple dips.
Below is a chart of all occurrences of doubles/triples since 1999:
#VIXIndicator The Downside Warning was reinstated at the close Wednesday, as VIX closed over 25% higher than Monday’s close.
#SPX1dte Pretty sharp move at day’s end, but IV on tomorrow’s expiry is only 22%. I’m skipping this as tomorrow could be a sharp bounce or a sharp drop.
#VIXIndicator would have fired an upside warning today if the close was calm. This is why it takes 3 consecutive days of VIX closes before it fires… too many head-fakes with only 1 or 2 days.
#VIXIndicator The VIX closed below the 78.6% retracement, so that cancels the DW. Crazy stuff on a day with jobs numbers like that. If we can close well Monday and Tuesday it will set up nicely for a further rally higher.
#VIXindicator As I said below, this is the first time I’ve had an open gap breach a short strike on the #SPX1dte strategy, which I started in December 2018. Today’s SPX open price was 2.40% below Friday’s close price.
It got me thinking, how often has that happened?
Well, it used to happen fairly frequently, when the SPX price was below 2000. It happened on a fairly steady basis up into 2014.
But the last time it happened was April 10, 2014, when it opened at 1,830.65 (-2.22%). Since then, today was the ONLY day that SPX gapped 2% or more.
Needless to say a Downside Warning fired today as well.
#VIXIndicator Forgot to note that yesterday the Downside Warning was canceled when $SPX hit all-time highs. $VIX hasn’t dropped a lot, however, so it may not mean all-clear ahead.
#VIXIndicator New $VIX highs, new $SPX lows today. SPX now negative on year, lowest levels since January 6th. Highest VIX since Oct 10th.
#VIXindicator The $VIX closed well over 25% higher than Thursday’s close (2-day closing low) so a Downside Warning took effect. Highest VIX readings since October 10th. Expect further downside in the market in the coming days or weeks.
#VIXindicator We kicked off a “minor” Upside Warning last night, based on the small VIX spike from Jan 3 and 6. These occur when a volatility spike cancels a previous UpW but no Downside Warning comes. In the past, they often signal continued momentum higher.
#VIXindicator The Upside Warning was canceled this morning with the VIX spike. We can now watch for a high VIX close to trigger a Downside Warning, or if we can close back below 12.68 we can look for a reinstated Upside Warning.
#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning will go into effect Tuesday with a VIX close at 12.82 or lower.
#VIXIndicator The Downside Warning is officially canceled as the SPX notched a new all-time high. However, this high was driven by a tweet that we humans understand, based on recent history, really doesn’t mean anything. The algos respond and drive us higher. If no trade deal is reached by Sunday, or there’s no agreement to delay the tariffs, we could re-enter a Downside Warning quickly and easily.
My opinion: I don’t think a trade deal will be reached until after the election. However, I do think the tariffs will be delayed. I don’t know how that will affect the markets, but Monday we could be anywhere.
#VIXIndicator Well, that’s two Downside Warnings in a row that turned out to be only one-day warnings for a brief intraday low, then rocket back to the skies. I’m going to keep tracking them, but include a notice that they have not always been working. Meanwhile, I will research the history to determine if there are any concurrent indicators that can distinguish between accurate and inaccurate warnings.
For 2019, the Warning on 4/5 was good; 8/1 was okay; but 10/2 and 12/2 were head fakes.
#VIXIndicator The $VIX close today was 14.91, which is over 25% higher than Wednesday’s close, triggering a Downside Warning. Based on past behavior, the chance for a further drop in the coming days or weeks is high. That said, the last one (on Oct 2nd) didn’t pan out, with only a slightly lower intraday low the next day, before cruising into record highs after that.
#VIXIndicator The intraday $VIX spike has canceled the Upside Warning, which had been in effect since Oct 16th.
#VIXindicator The Upside Warning coming through this time, with $VIX hitting lowest level since July 29th. $SPX came within .59 of all-time high earlier today.
#VIXindicator An inside day on the VIX chart is the third close below 15.05 in a row, meaning an Upside Warning is in effect. Look for higher prices in the coming days. I’m proceeding cautiously after last month’s headfake. I only have one bullish trade (put spread sold this morning).
Expiring today: $SPX Oct 16th 2945/2955-3030/3040 condors sold yesterday for .45.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 21st 2975/2950 put spreads for 4.90. IV: 11.44%, SPX 2990. Bullish positioning following both trend and #VIXindicator.
#SPX1dte . BTC $SPX Oct 7th 2960/2985 call spread for 1.95. Condors sold for 2.85 on Wednesday. It came within expected move today. The #VIXIndicator is getting whipsawed this time around. It will suck two get to false signals in a row, but it is shaping up that way right now. Next week will give us the answers.
#VIXIndicator So after the failure of the Upside, we entered a Downside at today’s close. This signal usually means the market goes lower over the coming days.
#VIXindicator It seemed obvious days ago but it was just officially canceled. This is only the third total failure of the signal since 1999, out of 44 total, where the SPX made no new high after the signal fired, other than a brief intraday spike the very next day.
#VIXIndicator. This Upside Warning looks to be a dud. After it fired on Thursday’s close, we only got a 0.3% intraday bump on Friday, then it’s been all lower. There’s never been a pullback this strong on an Upside Warning that ended up bouncing and coming through. This is the 43rd UpW since I started tracking in 2000, but only the fourth to not register any significant higher price after firing.
#VIXIndicator Look for higher prices over the next couple of weeks.
#SPX1dte #VIXIndicator As an Upside Warning is preparing to fire today (VIX close below 14.50), I’m doing this Risk Reversal for next Friday. I will add more to the long if we get a pullback tomorrow or Monday.
Bought to Open $SPX Sept 27th 3045/3060 bull call spreads for 2.40.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 27th 3000/2975 put spreads for 5.80.
#VIXIndicator The Downside Warning will most likely be canceled at today’s close. Two more consecutive days closing below 14.50 would mean an Upside Warning hitting at Monday’s close.
#VIXindicator This is one of the more whipsaw-y corrections I can remember. Today was our fifth warning. I don’t think the bottom is in yet, but betting on that after the Aug 14th warning got me ripped up as the bounce was strong and protracted. (arrows represent the 4 Downside Warnings)
#VIXindicator Today was the highest $VIX since January 3rd, when VIX was dropping from its Christmas Eve highs.
$VXX and $UVXY were higher in May, as they suffer from Contango.
#SPX1dte Didn’t get any bounce to sell call spreads, so tried a put spread.
Sold $SPX Aug 7th 2725/2700 put spreads for 1.80. Hopefully I can close this tomorrow.
Two more Warnings fired today, but I gotta think at least a small relief rally will happen tomorrow. This is a pretty brutal day. #VIXindicator
#VIXindicator I began to doubt it would show its stuff on day one, but the Downside Warning came through today, and a second warning fired at the close.
#VIXIndicator Although we recovered from the huge intraday drop, the VIX spiked again at the close and fired a Downside Warning. Expect more volatility and a market drop in the coming days.
#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning went into effect at the close Friday. This signal has been over 90% effective since 2000, leading to at least a 1.5% short-term gain in the S&P. Expect new record highs over the next couple of weeks.
#VIXIndicator It’s been awhile since we started this Warning, so I missed the fact that it was canceled on Thursday with the new SPX high. So now we set up for either a new Downside Warning or an Upside Warning. See the sidebar for those levels.
#VIXIndicator A Downside Warning is now in effect… look for continued drop, at least in the short term.
#VIXIndicator, needless to say, the minor upside warning was canceled this morning with a $VIX high of 18.80 (we only needed 16.09). Any close at 16.09 or higher will mean a Downside Warning.
#VIXIndicator fired this at the close. Last one we got was on March 13th, and it was good for a 1.75% move up from that day’s close to intraday high 6 days later, before we stalled and pulled back a little.
#VIXIndicator With a $VIX close at 13.54 or lower today, a”minor” upside warning will fire, reaffirming market’s upside bias in the absence of any significant pullback materializing. Should mean another leg higher next week.
#SPX1dte #VIXIndicator No upside warning today so I’m selling both sides:
Sold $SPX April 12th 2800/2825-2910/2935 condors for 6.30 (IV 11.82%, SPX 2875)
#VIXIndicator It was only a “minor” one so not surprising that it didn’t last long or go far… VIX spiked today to reach 25% higher than yesterday’s close, so that cancels the minor upside warning. A close at 17.04 or higher would be a Downside Warning.
#VIXIndicator Usually the Upside Warning is canceled when we get a Downside Warning. But sometimes, like last Monday, the UpW is canceled by an intraday spike on the $VIX, with no DW taking effect. Usually when that happens, the DW comes within the next few days.
But sometimes, the VIX retreats enough to fire a “minor” upside warning… which is measured on the Fib levels from the recent intraday spike. So three closes below the 78.6% line would fire this “minor” signal.
That will happen today provided VIX closes below 14.44.
This has happened only 6 times since 2000. Below is a chart with the performance of SPX in the days after each “mUpW”, ending at the next VIX spike or DW. You can see that it is mostly positive; even the longest one that goes negative spiked pretty high before rolling over.
#VIXIndicator The $VIX just took out the Upside Warning by 1-point. We need to close at 16.97 or higher for this to be a Downside Warning.
#VIXIndicator Since we’re in this pullback I looked back at other times we had a signficant pullback (more than 1%) after an Upside Warning fires. The chart below shows all of the instances since 1999.
Two of them resulted in no new highs, and we dropped significantly before the Upside Warning was technically canceled (the two rows with red in the right-most column). The other times all eventually went higher after the dip.
The center columns show the move 1-day, 2-days, etc, after the UpW. The right-hand columns show the number of days from the UpW to the new SPX high, and the percentage move to get there.
Also note that other than one time last April, this hasn’t happened any other time since 2011.
For me, the $VIX seems pretty unmoved by this week’s volatility and I still think we have higher to go before any major pullback.
#VIXIndicator Because I’m becoming an Excel geek, I made a new chart measuring a performance metric for the Upside Warning. This shows the rise we have gotten from past Upside Warnings in relation to how much the SPX had already recovered before the Warning hit. For instance, the upper-left-most dot represents a 32.2% rise in SPX AFTER the UpW; the UpW hit after SPX had recovered only 26% of its drop (horizontal axis).
I drew the sloppy red line showing the general trend: the less we have recovered from the correction when the UpW hit, the higher we can expect the rise to be after the UpW. Although the red line shows a trend, you can see that most are clustered in the same general area.
And for comparison today, we had recovered 65.5% at the close yesterday, when the UpW hit. (high 2940, low 2351, 20% drop. Close yesterday was 2737, which means we regained 65.5% of the drop).
Bot QQQ Mar 8 175c, SPY 277.5c, IWM 154c. First small layer.
Trading very carefully in case the rally doesn’t materialize.
Added another layer of SPY, QQQ, and IWM calls. Same strikes. Better price. Will hedge with VIX calls near the close if the downside wins today.
#VIXIndicator Here’s the version of the past results I posted back in May. The blue bars with numbers on top represent the percentage move UP from the close of an Upside Warning day to the eventual SPX high before another pullback. The numbers at the bottom of each bar are the percentage move DOWN of the preceding correction, and the date of the Upside Warning. Please ask any questions you have! (you can click on the chart to see it full screen).
As you can see, the Upside Warning is pretty reliable for at least a couple percentage points higher.
#VIXIndicator one more day with a $VIX close below 16.47 and we have an Upside Warning. I think today’s action foretells we are headed that way.
#VIXIndicator Today’s $VIX close ends the 4-month Downside Warning. If we get two more closes at or below 16.47, it will trigger an Upside Warning, which usually means a strong rally for a few days or weeks.
#VIXIndicator We closed with $VIX only 0.10 above the cancelation level of the Downside Warning, which has been in effect since October 5th. If bears are going to show up, they better do it soon.
@jeffcp66, does the SPX have to make new highs to cancel a downside warning? If so, it’s a long way to cancelling the downside.
#VIXIndicator Looks like two new downside warnings, on usually the quietest day of the year. Down 2% on Christmas Eve.
May your Christmas Day be free of volatility and full of cheer!
Since we are on experiment discussion below again, here is one I have been paper trading. A twist on #pietrades. If we need a new term we could call them #lizardpies.
So obviously with the market rout all my #pietrades went ITM and to prevent a meltdown in margin I converted them all to #fuzzy. Which is great, has controlled the volatility and still have 111 weeks to manage them. But as @fuzzballl points out below, they are expensive. Cheaper than stock but my EXPE puts are now trading at 22.40 and 19.50. Not chump change.
The #pietrade idea is sound for income generation and even some capital gains long term as long as you sell the call ATM or OTM once assigned the stock. You also are typically only selling 1 side and as Karen the supertrader (now scam artist) figured out, selling the other side is what really improves long term returns and consistency. She may have been using some creative accounting but the idea is sound and has been proven by tasty trade.
So here is the tweak I have been playing with. When you set up the trade, start it as a #jadelizard but set it up ATM. For example with XBI currently at 78.02 I would sell the 10 DTE 78 puts naked (cash secure) and then sell the 78/79 call credit spread. Total credit 2.55. No upside risk, downside break even is 75.55 which is lower than where I probably would have just sold the put.
3 possible outcomes
a: below 78 assigned shares on the put at 78 but cost basis 75.55. Can sell a next week call or call credit spread if you think rebound, then uncapped upside
b: Between the strikes max profit and you may be assigned on the call but can exercise your long call if needed.
c: above 79 everything cancels out and you keep the credit minus $1.
Here’s a graph on a 10 lot.
I have been trading it on paper and it would have had better loss control on the #pietrades than straight put sales the last 2 months.
Thoughts, holes in the strategy, other ideas to tweak it or make it better? If you wanted to be more conservative could sell strangles OTM instead or straddles ATM on the short sides but then less credit. Since my premise is income, I am trying to bring in as much credit as possible on the front end.
#VIXIndicator Another Downside Warning fired today with the VIX closing at 25.23. That’s the highest close of this correction (although the intraday high was on Oct 11th), and the highest VIX close since February 12th.
This is the 4th warning of this correction. After the initial Warning, additional warnings can sometimes signal the bottom, but not always.
#VIXindicator Looking back at all 54 Downside Warnings gives us some data to view our current correction. Below are three charts with the Average Move down on each day of the correction. (I omitted the black swan 2008 financial crisis).
Day 1 is the day the Downside Warning fired (at the close). The percentages are how far the LOW of the day on $SPX has moved, as measured from the CLOSE of the day before the warning. So in the current correction (in color), which fired on Oct 5, the day 1 move of -1.1% is the low on Oct 5th, measured from the close on Oct 4th. Day 2 is the low on Monday the 8th, and so on.
The first chart includes all 54 corrections. The first three days include all 54, but the 4th day is an average of 53 corrections, since one was only three days long and drops off the list. This only goes to 23 days… the longest correction lasted 165 days. The data here says we are above average so far.
Considering the current correction is now 8 days long, I created the second chart, which looks at only those corrections that lasted between 9 and 19 days. The data here says we are above average for short corrections, so this one may end up being a little longer.
And the third chart is those corrections that were in the 4-8% range on days 4-7, just like our current one. This data suggests we may stay in the current range (down 5% or so) for several days to come).
Or it all may mean nothing! But it’s fun to geek out occasionally.
#VIXindicator An additional triple warning at the close, following through on Friday’s first warning.
#VIXindicator A downside warning is enacted today, since we closed at over 25% of Wednesday’s close (2-day closing low).
This new Warning resets VIX levels. The Warning would be canceled with a new SPX high above 2,940.91, or a close of the VIX of 12.44 or lower, with three consecutive closes leading to an Upside Warning.
#VIXIndicator… new highs today, 15.19 highest since Sep 10th. If we close the day above 14.51, it will be a new Downside Warning. This just one day after the lowest close since August 9th.
#VIXIndicator The close bumped us up to 11.68, so still no start of the countdown to an Upside Warning.
#VIXIndicator We spent the morning in Upside Warning territory, but despite a steadily rising SPX all day, the VIX also rose steadily then ended up closing higher on the day.
#VIXIndicator. 2018 is the year of the rollercoaster. Today’s close triggered anther warning for potential drops in the market.
#VIXIndicator The $VIX avoided an Upside Warning again… clock restarts, we need three consecutive closes below 11.20 (11.19 or lower).
#VIXIndicator …one to go. A $VIX close below 11.20 tomorrow will mean an Upside Warning, indicating a high chance of a rally to new all-time highs on the $SPX. The third day is where we failed in both late February and late May, and then new Downside Warnings hit on the fourth days.
#VIXIndicator Third time’s a charm for an Upside Warning? Two more closes below 11.20 and we’re golden.