Correction Data

#VIXindicator Looking back at all 54 Downside Warnings gives us some data to view our current correction. Below are three charts with the Average Move down on each day of the correction. (I omitted the black swan 2008 financial crisis).

Day 1 is the day the Downside Warning fired (at the close). The percentages are how far the LOW of the day on $SPX has moved, as measured from the CLOSE of the day before the warning. So in the current correction (in color), which fired on Oct 5, the day 1 move of -1.1% is the low on Oct 5th, measured from the close on Oct 4th. Day 2 is the low on Monday the 8th, and so on.

The first chart includes all 54 corrections. The first three days include all 54, but the 4th day is an average of 53 corrections, since one was only three days long and drops off the list. This only goes to 23 days… the longest correction lasted 165 days. The data here says we are above average so far.

Considering the current correction is now 8 days long, I created the second chart, which looks at only those corrections that lasted between 9 and 19 days. The data here says we are above average for short corrections, so this one may end up being a little longer.

And the third chart is those corrections that were in the 4-8% range on days 4-7, just like our current one. This data suggests we may stay in the current range (down 5% or so) for several days to come).

Or it all may mean nothing! But it’s fun to geek out occasionally.

Screen Shot 2018-10-16 at 12.50.55 PM


#VIXindicator An additional triple warning at the close, following through on Friday’s first warning.

Downside Warning

#VIXindicator A downside warning is enacted today, since we closed at over 25% of Wednesday’s close (2-day closing low).

This new Warning resets VIX levels. The Warning would be canceled with a new SPX high above 2,940.91, or a close of the VIX of 12.44 or lower, with three consecutive closes leading to an Upside Warning.

VIX stops being boring

#VIXIndicator… new highs today, 15.19 highest since Sep 10th. If we close the day above 14.51, it will be a new Downside Warning. This just one day after the lowest close since August 9th.

Missed it by that much

#VIXIndicator The close bumped us up to 11.68, so still no start of the countdown to an Upside Warning.

VIX can’t shake off the fear

#VIXIndicator We spent the morning in Upside Warning territory, but despite a steadily rising SPX all day, the VIX also rose steadily then ended up closing higher on the day.

Downside Warning AGAIN

#VIXIndicator. 2018 is the year of the rollercoaster. Today’s close triggered anther warning for potential drops in the market.