Since we are on experiment…

Since we are on experiment discussion below again, here is one I have been paper trading. A twist on #pietrades. If we need a new term we could call them #lizardpies.

So obviously with the market rout all my #pietrades went ITM and to prevent a meltdown in margin I converted them all to #fuzzy. Which is great, has controlled the volatility and still have 111 weeks to manage them. But as @fuzzballl points out below, they are expensive. Cheaper than stock but my EXPE puts are now trading at 22.40 and 19.50. Not chump change.

The #pietrade idea is sound for income generation and even some capital gains long term as long as you sell the call ATM or OTM once assigned the stock. You also are typically only selling 1 side and as Karen the supertrader (now scam artist) figured out, selling the other side is what really improves long term returns and consistency. She may have been using some creative accounting but the idea is sound and has been proven by tasty trade.

So here is the tweak I have been playing with. When you set up the trade, start it as a #jadelizard but set it up ATM. For example with XBI currently at 78.02 I would sell the 10 DTE 78 puts naked (cash secure) and then sell the 78/79 call credit spread. Total credit 2.55. No upside risk, downside break even is 75.55 which is lower than where I probably would have just sold the put.

3 possible outcomes
a: below 78 assigned shares on the put at 78 but cost basis 75.55. Can sell a next week call or call credit spread if you think rebound, then uncapped upside
b: Between the strikes max profit and you may be assigned on the call but can exercise your long call if needed.
c: above 79 everything cancels out and you keep the credit minus $1.

Here’s a graph on a 10 lot.

2017-12-01-TOS_CHARTS

I have been trading it on paper and it would have had better loss control on the #pietrades than straight put sales the last 2 months.

Thoughts, holes in the strategy, other ideas to tweak it or make it better? If you wanted to be more conservative could sell strangles OTM instead or straddles ATM on the short sides but then less credit. Since my premise is income, I am trying to bring in as much credit as possible on the front end.

#coveredcallcampaign, #vixindicator

Downside Warning

#VIXIndicator Another Downside Warning fired today with the VIX closing at 25.23. That’s the highest close of this correction (although the intraday high was on Oct 11th), and the highest VIX close since February 12th.

This is the 4th warning of this correction. After the initial Warning, additional warnings can sometimes signal the bottom, but not always.

Correction Data

#VIXindicator Looking back at all 54 Downside Warnings gives us some data to view our current correction. Below are three charts with the Average Move down on each day of the correction. (I omitted the black swan 2008 financial crisis).

Day 1 is the day the Downside Warning fired (at the close). The percentages are how far the LOW of the day on $SPX has moved, as measured from the CLOSE of the day before the warning. So in the current correction (in color), which fired on Oct 5, the day 1 move of -1.1% is the low on Oct 5th, measured from the close on Oct 4th. Day 2 is the low on Monday the 8th, and so on.

The first chart includes all 54 corrections. The first three days include all 54, but the 4th day is an average of 53 corrections, since one was only three days long and drops off the list. This only goes to 23 days… the longest correction lasted 165 days. The data here says we are above average so far.

Considering the current correction is now 8 days long, I created the second chart, which looks at only those corrections that lasted between 9 and 19 days. The data here says we are above average for short corrections, so this one may end up being a little longer.

And the third chart is those corrections that were in the 4-8% range on days 4-7, just like our current one. This data suggests we may stay in the current range (down 5% or so) for several days to come).

Or it all may mean nothing! But it’s fun to geek out occasionally.

Screen Shot 2018-10-16 at 12.50.55 PM

Fugly

#VIXindicator An additional triple warning at the close, following through on Friday’s first warning.

Downside Warning

#VIXindicator A downside warning is enacted today, since we closed at over 25% of Wednesday’s close (2-day closing low).

This new Warning resets VIX levels. The Warning would be canceled with a new SPX high above 2,940.91, or a close of the VIX of 12.44 or lower, with three consecutive closes leading to an Upside Warning.

VIX stops being boring

#VIXIndicator… new highs today, 15.19 highest since Sep 10th. If we close the day above 14.51, it will be a new Downside Warning. This just one day after the lowest close since August 9th.

Missed it by that much

#VIXIndicator The close bumped us up to 11.68, so still no start of the countdown to an Upside Warning.