Another Downside bust

#VIXIndicator Well, that’s two Downside Warnings in a row that turned out to be only one-day warnings for a brief intraday low, then rocket back to the skies. I’m going to keep tracking them, but include a notice that they have not always been working. Meanwhile, I will research the history to determine if there are any concurrent indicators that can distinguish between accurate and inaccurate warnings.

For 2019, the Warning on 4/5 was good; 8/1 was okay; but 10/2 and 12/2 were head fakes.

Downside Warning in effect

#VIXIndicator The $VIX close today was 14.91, which is over 25% higher than Wednesday’s close, triggering a Downside Warning. Based on past behavior, the chance for a further drop in the coming days or weeks is high. That said, the last one (on Oct 2nd) didn’t pan out, with only a slightly lower intraday low the next day, before cruising into record highs after that.

Upside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator The intraday $VIX spike has canceled the Upside Warning, which had been in effect since Oct 16th.

VIX collapsing

#VIXindicator The Upside Warning coming through this time, with $VIX hitting lowest level since July 29th. $SPX came within .59 of all-time high earlier today.

Upside Warning

#VIXindicator An inside day on the VIX chart is the third close below 15.05 in a row, meaning an Upside Warning is in effect. Look for higher prices in the coming days. I’m proceeding cautiously after last month’s headfake. I only have one bullish trade (put spread sold this morning).

Expiring today: $SPX Oct 16th 2945/2955-3030/3040 condors sold yesterday for .45.

SPX Monday

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 21st 2975/2950 put spreads for 4.90. IV: 11.44%, SPX 2990. Bullish positioning following both trend and #VIXindicator.

SPX Monday call spread closed

#SPX1dte . BTC $SPX Oct 7th 2960/2985 call spread for 1.95. Condors sold for 2.85 on Wednesday. It came within expected move today. The #VIXIndicator is getting whipsawed this time around. It will suck two get to false signals in a row, but it is shaping up that way right now. Next week will give us the answers.