Largest gap open since 2014

#VIXindicator As I said below, this is the first time I’ve had an open gap breach a short strike on the #SPX1dte strategy, which I started in December 2018. Today’s SPX open price was 2.40% below Friday’s close price.

It got me thinking, how often has that happened?

Well, it used to happen fairly frequently, when the SPX price was below 2000. It happened on a fairly steady basis up into 2014.

But the last time it happened was April 10, 2014, when it opened at 1,830.65 (-2.22%). Since then, today was the ONLY day that SPX gapped 2% or more.

Needless to say a Downside Warning fired today as well.

Downside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator Forgot to note that yesterday the Downside Warning was canceled when $SPX hit all-time highs. $VIX hasn’t dropped a lot, however, so it may not mean all-clear ahead.

Highs and lows

#VIXIndicator New $VIX highs, new $SPX lows today. SPX now negative on year, lowest levels since January 6th. Highest VIX since Oct 10th.

Downside Warning in effect

#VIXindicator The $VIX closed well over 25% higher than Thursday’s close (2-day closing low) so a Downside Warning took effect. Highest VIX readings since October 10th. Expect further downside in the market in the coming days or weeks.

Upside Warning reinstated

#VIXindicator We kicked off a “minor” Upside Warning last night, based on the small VIX spike from Jan 3 and 6. These occur when a volatility spike cancels a previous UpW but no Downside Warning comes. In the past, they often signal continued momentum higher.

Upside Warning canceled

#VIXindicator The Upside Warning was canceled this morning with the VIX spike. We can now watch for a high VIX close to trigger a Downside Warning, or if we can close back below 12.68 we can look for a reinstated Upside Warning.

I saw Santa kissing 3200

#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning will go into effect Tuesday with a VIX close at 12.82 or lower.