#VIXindicator An inside day on the VIX chart is the third close below 15.05 in a row, meaning an Upside Warning is in effect. Look for higher prices in the coming days. I’m proceeding cautiously after last month’s headfake. I only have one bullish trade (put spread sold this morning).
Expiring today: $SPX Oct 16th 2945/2955-3030/3040 condors sold yesterday for .45.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 21st 2975/2950 put spreads for 4.90. IV: 11.44%, SPX 2990. Bullish positioning following both trend and #VIXindicator.
#SPX1dte . BTC $SPX Oct 7th 2960/2985 call spread for 1.95. Condors sold for 2.85 on Wednesday. It came within expected move today. The #VIXIndicator is getting whipsawed this time around. It will suck two get to false signals in a row, but it is shaping up that way right now. Next week will give us the answers.
#VIXIndicator So after the failure of the Upside, we entered a Downside at today’s close. This signal usually means the market goes lower over the coming days.
#VIXindicator It seemed obvious days ago but it was just officially canceled. This is only the third total failure of the signal since 1999, out of 44 total, where the SPX made no new high after the signal fired, other than a brief intraday spike the very next day.
#VIXIndicator. This Upside Warning looks to be a dud. After it fired on Thursday’s close, we only got a 0.3% intraday bump on Friday, then it’s been all lower. There’s never been a pullback this strong on an Upside Warning that ended up bouncing and coming through. This is the 43rd UpW since I started tracking in 2000, but only the fourth to not register any significant higher price after firing.
#VIXIndicator Look for higher prices over the next couple of weeks.