#Market #LEAPs Not a good end to the day… are we really surprised or freaked out by interest rates? Or is this market just not getting back through 2800 for the rest of the year? We are now in the fifth month of a market that cannot rally like we saw it do so often in 2016/2017. Stuck again in a Downside Warning that goes more up than down, but apparently means there is no follow through on rallies.
Missed fills on the bounce so got stuck selling calls near the lows. I don’t want to be stuck with short puts on this without selling calls as well.
Sold $TQQQ July 6th 64 calls for 1.35.
#SPXcampaign As I posted on Friday I am scaling back on this strategy, at least until I can clear the decks and regroup.
I’ve decided to sell half my normal amounts for the time being. I will however, add extra longs when we get an Upside Warning.
Today my stop levels were breached on my remaining call spreads… although I did add a new one this morning. Last week I stopped several calls and added a couple ATM put spreads, which are helping recoup a chunk of change.
Sold $SPX July 13th 2870/2895 call spreads for 1.65
Closed on GTC order: $SPX June 15th 2700/2675 put spreads for .40. Sold for 5.25 on May 24th.
Looking to close call spreads on any pullback, will post below.
#VIXIndicator We’ve seen this movie before, but each time it happens at a lower VIX level. Today should be the second close below the PREVIOUS 78.6% Fib line, but we need to close at 11.01 or lower to cancel this current warning. Because we are in the third Downside warning without an Upside one, the normal levels may be out of whack. It certainly looks as if we’re ready to cruise higher but we’ve been fooled many times this year.
All things considered, I handled it as best as I can expect, in that I protected myself by closing some bullish spreads, but didn’t panic close positions, leaving a couple ATM/ITM put spreads in place. Now I’m stuck with some underwater call spreads but won’t panic close them… tough part is we are officially under Downside Warning again, which means we could easily collapse in the coming weeks. Below is a chart showing the warnings on the SPX chart… after the 2nd warning, we still had some wild swings. But since then we’ve been squeezing into a tight range. Anyone’s guess, but this third warning could be a head-fake.
#VIXIndicator… for perspective, when this happened on Feb 28th (another warning firing a few days after the previous one had been canceled), the SPX closed at 2713. We hit the low of 2553 on April 2nd, so a full month later. During that month, we also reached a high of 2801.
#VIXIndicator In pre-market we have a signal on the VIXIndicator which indicates to be wary of new downside risk, this time due to Italy’s political crisis causing a big drop in the Euro. Whether we get a new Downside Warning will depend on the VIX closing price.
#VIXIndicator Looking less likely we’ll get an Upside Warning today, but in any case here’s an updated version of the chart I posted months ago. The blue bars with numbers on top represent the percentage move UP from the close of an Upside Warning day to the eventual SPX high before another pullback. The numbers at the bottom of each bar are the percentage move DOWN from the preceding correction, and the date of the Upside Warning. Please ask any questions you have! (you can click on the chart to see it full screen)