#Market The job growth just won’t abate… private sector growth way above expectations this morning, and market reacts negatively because it may signal continued rate hikes. Same could happen after tomorrow morning’s monthly report. I will not be trading tonight or tomorrow because of that and my schedule, and will likely skip a Monday trade as well.
Today’s trade is threatened but I did not stop out. The recent range has been pretty tight in terms of CLOSES…. intraday can get wanky, but last time the market closed in breach of my strikes was November 30 (I had stopped out earlier in day, so lost 4.00 rather than 20.00). In fact, I tracked all my #SPX1dte trades since May 1st, and I would have made about 13% more profit if I had followed a “no stop” approach, taking a few big losses but eliminating all of the small losses from stop-outs that ended up being unnecessary. So I’m analyzing the whole year to see if a no-stop approach would be okay.
#spx #market #spy
I don’t trade based on this indicator, but I know it is widely followed so I thought I would post for anyone interested. SPY’s 50-Day MA has been dropping relative to its 200-Day MA at about the rate of $1 a day. Since the spread is about $5 now, the famous (or infamous) “death cross” will occur around Monday or Tuesday barring any major changes.
#Market So we opened the day higher due to reports that “China is open to a partial US trade deal.”
#Market #Jobs. Is the volatility finished and are we headed again to new highs? Today we touched the lowest VIX reading since August 1, the day after the Downside Warning started. And tomorrow morning we get the August jobs report.
#Market It’s rare to see such a straight line in either direction for almost 4 hours with no significant bumps.
#Market The Indices continuing a searingly bullish week, but the $VIX is spiking today as well.
I got filled on this trade as the market was going UP…
Sold $SPX June 14th 2815/2790 put spreads for 2.50. (SPX 2877)
#Market Reminders for tomorrow:
GDP numbers at 8:30am ET
FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2pm ET
#Market is way too reactionary to anything “tariffs.”
#Market Well, so much for the post-election rally. AAPL getting whacked, unlike in October, so it seems all bets are off. We could just remain in this wide range into year end, but things are not pretty with two days in a row like this.
Had to stop out on $TWLO puts with a loss… a painful whipsaw for me on the earnings trade. Staying away for now as it is still dropping.
No TSLA trade this week because margin req are jacked on that ticker by my broker.
BTC $DUST Mar 15th 60 call for 1.15. Sold for 3.65 (avg price) in Aug/Sept)
Stopped $BOIL Mar 15th 45 call for 8.00. Sold for 2.40, avg price. Working on some rolls to the new 60 strikes..
#Market Pretty in-depth analysis, published Monday, but an interesting read and lots of historical data comparisons to geek out on.
Will The U.S. Stock Market Enter A Bear Market In Mid-2019?
#Market We just hit the lowest $TICK since mid-May. It seems every day we start the day strong, and then hit volatility in the afternoon, before closing out on a mini-rally.
#Market @fibwizard — what is the #FWReversalWarning telling you this morning?
#Market #LEAPs Not a good end to the day… are we really surprised or freaked out by interest rates? Or is this market just not getting back through 2800 for the rest of the year? We are now in the fifth month of a market that cannot rally like we saw it do so often in 2016/2017. Stuck again in a Downside Warning that goes more up than down, but apparently means there is no follow through on rallies.
Missed fills on the bounce so got stuck selling calls near the lows. I don’t want to be stuck with short puts on this without selling calls as well.
Sold $TQQQ July 6th 64 calls for 1.35.
#Market Financials ($XLF) got off their ass yesterday and are up again today, but tech ($XLK) is tumbling. Seems that these rallies can’t get everyone to join the party at the same time.
#Market SPX daily squeeze fired long, and 3 of the last 5 closes were over 1 SD. That’s two out of three signals that the rally will continue… #VIXIndicator didn’t quite make it low enough.
#Market Watching multiple indicators today… the SPX daily squeeze may fire long; Sue’s 3-out-of-5 day 1 SD indicator may fire, and the #VIXIndicator is poised to cancel the Downside Warning if we close at 12.61 or lower.
#Market Today we are down less than 1%, which in 2018 is notable. VIX not up much, and UVXY and VXX could barely be considered to be spiking, given the huge drop they saw in the last week. UVXY had been at 20 for a couple weeks, then a quick drop to 15, and barely up today.
Meantime, SPX could barely get above 2700. Is this the new normal? Consolidating indices all year and volatility drifts downward as we get used to it?
I thought this was an interesting view on the current #Market
#SPXcampaign #Market I will post trades soon, but I switched more put spreads to calls and I believe we will be going further down today.
#Market #SPXcampaign This recent click higher and corresponding dip in the VIX signals to me this market is going up. Still not close to confirmation on the VIXIndicator but I’m going to start reversing some positions in SPX.
#Market One thing about corrections is they can also include face-ripping rallies. This is a huge gap up… the market did what it does best on Friday… shook me out of put spreads which would be doing excellently today had I not ditched them. VIX not dropping too sharply yet, but I’ll be watching what it does during market hours. I have a couple of call spreads in trouble… not sure yet if I should forward roll or reverse roll.
#Market #SPXcampaign For the last few months we have seen unending rallies, defying gravity. Many mornings we would open with a nice little pullback, getting enough traders worried the happy days were ending so they would sell, then the market turns around and notches another all-time high.
This morning’s “rally” was the reverse of that… Gap-down open, only to perk into positive territory, head faking enough to cover their shorts before we rip down to new lows.
It’s the upside down of last month.
#Market Intraday we just made a lower high and a lower low. The groundhog sees more volatility ahead.
#VIXIndicator #Market An Upside Warning went into effect, meaning the risk is to upside: higher prices on the indices. I was hoping for some relaxation or minor pullback to start us off, but we are over 8 points higher again on $SPX. No use fighting it.
Jobs report in 20 minutes.
The VIX is trading under 9.00 for the sixth time ever.
$SPX down 10.82 and $UVXY just doesn’t care
Wall Street strategist Tom Lee sees the S&P 500 falling 5% in the next 30 days
#Market I rarely post CNBC talking heads, but this guy is always sensible and rarely wrong.
#Market A slight miss this month. Market don’t care.
+156,000 non-farm jobs in August. June/July revised down a total of -41,000
Unemployment rate up one tick to 4.4%, after ticking down to 4.3% in July.
U6 unchanged at 8.6%, unchanged
Avg hourly earnings up +0.1%, worse than July +0.3% and June +0.2%
Labor Force Participation 62.9%, unchanged.
Even though the market is whippy today, the internals really don’t suggest a big drop.
Tick isn’t doing anything remarkable
ADD is positive
VOLSPD is basically flat
VOLQD is flat to positive
Obviously this could change, but looks OK right now.
Looks like only support level today will be time based, the closing bell in 3 hours.
#VIXIndicator #Market The VIX topped at 17.28 a few hours ago but is now dropping on lower than expected inflation numbers. Looks like indices will open flat or positive.
To me it looks like an opportunity to short, but this market has been killing the dreams of bears for years.
#Market Pretty much good news all around:
+209,000 jobs. June revised to +231,000
Unemployment rate back to 4.3%, after ticking up to 4.4% in June
U6 unchanged at 8.6%
Avg hourly earnings up 0.3%, better than June (up 0.2%)
Labor Force Participation 62.9% (up 0.1 from June)
#Market I was looking at a BuPS and all of sudden within seconds the market went down sharply.
#Market #SPXcampaign Don’t let today’s pullback fool you… I believe we are still going higher in next couple weeks at least. If you agree, be sure to use this pullback to release pressure from call spreads and sell some aggressive put spreads. Don’t go overboard, but don’t miss the opportunity to shift weight from short-the-market to long.
#Market Another bounce off the threat of a correction. This market simply does not want to go down. VIX is down but not plummeting so probably a good place to sell the market.
#Market I believe the direction today is down and feel we should see better opportunity to sell volatility later today.
Closed on GTC order: July 14th 2470/2495 call spreads for .20. Sold for 3.60 on June 22nd.
STOPPED: July 7th 2415/2390 put spreads for 4.90. Sold for 3.00 on Monday. Looking to roll this, possibly by legging into a #CondorRoll expiring tomorrow.
#Market Entertaining to watch…
After hitting a 24-year low, VIX now up +18%
After hitting an all time high, Nasdaq now down over 3%
After hitting all time hign, SPX down over half a percent… interesting but not the +3% of NDX
After hitting all-time high, RUT only now went negative.
This is my last day of traveling so I do not have time to post statistics… you can see past posts by clicking on this: #VIXIndicator
The signal we are now building, VIX closes below the Fib 78.3% retracement, is a very reliable sign that the SPX will continue higher in the coming days. There have been over two dozen occurrences of this since 1999, and in all but one there was no significant pullback for multiple days or weeks.
I am stopping my self out of many call spreads and selling put spreads, some of the them ATM or NTM. I’ll post more stats on this later this week.
Different market affects today with respect to volatility. Spot $VIX and $VVIX took an additional step higher today, but $VXX, $UVXY, $SVXY really not responding. Saw a similar thing after Brexit, implies to me that there are traders selling volatility today.
Interesting that the Russel 2000 has been positive most of the day and the mid caps are only down $0.03 ($VO). One of the folks on CNBC today mentioned that the VIX equivalent in Europe is in the 20’s and that traders have gone short that volatility and are buying volatility in the US as a hedge. Might explain what drove us into front month contango while the rest of the curve really has not been affected, looks normal and orderly.
#Market We leave tomorrow for a 2-week trip to Boston, New York City, and Milwaukee. I plan to meet up with Bistro follower Ralph in NYC… let me know if anyone would like to connect in any of those cities.
And as most trading website moderators claim, when I travel the market seems to be volatile… sure enough, we got a Downside Warning the day before I leave. So I guess if nothing else worries you, consider my travel plans the market indicator!
#VIXIndicator We just got a second signal this morning so we are now under a Downside Warning for the #Market. Expect more volatility and a downward bias. Be careful selling put spreads, or avoid them. Consider call spreads on rallies and even long put positions.
I will post more details on the warning later today.
Looks like someone launched a sell program @ 10:30 Central.
#SPXcampaign #Market Nothing seems to shake us out of this consolidation. Who knows how long it will last? VIX and VXX are showing some signs, as @optioniceman points out. But until we get the move either way, theta has been doing wonders on my account. I’ll keep daring the market:
Sold to Open $SPXPM Apr 21st 2275/2300/2390/2415 iron condors for 4.10.
#Market A long overdue update of my SPX positions (at right). Also, good article from Robert J. Shiller about the market: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/31/upshot/trump-bull-market-stocks.html?ref=business&_r=0
#Market – more weakness today and could get worse into Friday if the earth Care bill continues to struggle on the Hill.
Meantime, $SNAP doesn’t seem to care. May be time to go long.
+156,000 jobs in December
4.7% unemployment, up .1%
Avg hourly earnings jumped 10 cents
2.9% annual gain for wages in 2016
Labor force participation unchanged (and still low) at 62.7%
November revised upward from 178,000 to 204,000
October revised downward from 142,000 to 135,000
2016 total non-farm: 2.2 million
About 500K fewer than 2015
It took a little while, but looks like we are seeing some sell the news starting to hit the market.
Wow, S&P up 20. Bulls are flipping the bird to the FED today. We’ll see who is flipping the bird tomorrow. $VIX up with the market, people are buying puts.
#Market NDX up 1.5% and moving…. SPX peaked but now dropping… RUT peaked and now negative.
Financials down, Gold down.
And VIX up slightly.
Is tech coming back?
#Market Don’t Forget, monthly #Jobs report is Friday.
#VIXIndicator #Market If we close today at current VIX levels the Downside Warning will be canceled and we could be on our way to new highs. We had a spike up like this last Thursday too, but then it failed… two hours left…
#Market #SPXcampaign If Hillary wins tonight, there is the chance of a very large explosion of a rally tomorrow. I am thus rolling out of my Nov 9th 2150/2175 call spread. Been trying to get out since we went positive, but no breaks yet in the move up.
#Market The Skew hit 141 yesterday, the highest since July 1st. It is typically a bearish sign when SKEW exceeds 135. However, it isn’t a very solid indicator. The July high was the highest since the indicator started, but it occurred AFTER the Brexit dip and before we hit new all-time highs.
The VIX is a better indicator, and it is up for the 9th straight day, even with SPX wavering around flat.
#Market Second day in row with an UP open on SPX with the VIX also opening higher. We’ve had five straight days of a rising VIX, back near its highs from Oct 13th.
Wow, someone turned on a sell program @ 1pm.
Making new highs on the day. Thus far $UVXY has been hanging tough about $17. Come on Vol Suck, daddy needs to sell a $SVXY $75 call for next week. 🙂
Looks like it wants to get into the Green by the end of the day. Getting some mojo.
#Market #VIXIndicator Things suddenly look dark… DB and all banks continue dropping. After last Thursday’s Downside Warning cancelation, we have a new signal this Thursday. It takes two signals for a Warning. Next level today is 16.53.
I’m looking to exit the put side of the condor I entered earlier… immediate loss on that one!
Looks like future are steadily improving and not going to see a gap lower at the open. $UVXY looking like it is now flat to Friday’s close even though $VIX is higher (19 at this moment, but dropping from 20.5) . Will be looking to open a number of #VXXGame trades at the open since I didn’t put on any trades late in the day on Friday sort of expecting more downside follow through today. I put in a bunch of orders, we’ll see how many actually get filled.
Art Cashin often says that markets don’t bottom on Friday’s. So unless we get a big woosh down into the close, I’m planning to hold off until monday before making more trades. Luckily for me, my trading account was sitting very close to being all cash, had very few open positions left going into today. So I’ve got a lot of dry powder to put to work. Just did some nibbling today, early next week might provide chances to really do some selling.
I did some charting of the $SPX this morning looking at some fib levels and some other random levels.
Fib retracements from the Brexit bottom to the high.
23.6% 2146 (right where we are as I right this)
Fib retracements from Feb low
3% pull back 2127
5% pull back 2083
Flat on year 2045
#Market Tomorrow, my guess we’ll get a decent job number, and it will give us an initial pop in the pre-market…. but I believe it will fade and we will end the day down. I don’t have a ton of conviction in it, however; will be ready to play either direction. But I believe near-term risk is more to downside.
Hey guy’s, last summer, the day before August Monthly expiration, was when the market started it’s violent move. We are about to lap that event. Likely to be getting some press this week and possibly make people a bit skittish.
Looking at volume on $SPY, it is still a high volume day but unless something big happens into the close today’s volume looks like it will only be about 1/2 of friday’s.
He guy’s, back from trip. Fishing was good. It was great to just relax and not think about the market (or the day job) for a whole week. Looks like I didn’t miss anything until Friday morning. Today I was jammed so just now getting a chance to look for opportunities to enter a few new trades in $NUGT. Wanting to stay small until after the fed meeting.