#Market So we opened the day higher due to reports that “China is open to a partial US trade deal.”

Now this:

BREAKING: Stocks pull back by about 90 points after Reuters reports that Beijing has lowered expectations for trade talks this week. https://t.co/pWxu4hGRlD pic.twitter.com/Y7lXpOS9yM

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) October 9, 2019

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#Market It’s rare to see such a straight line in either direction for almost 4 hours with no significant bumps.

#Market The Indices continuing a searingly bullish week, but the $VIX is spiking today as well.

I got filled on this trade as the market was going UP…

Sold $SPX June 14th 2815/2790 put spreads for 2.50. (SPX 2877)

#Market Reminders for tomorrow:
GDP numbers at 8:30am ET
FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2pm ET

#Market is way too reactionary to anything “tariffs.”

BREAKING: Stocks rise to session high as report says China to offer path to eliminate trade imbalance with UShttps://t.co/Nfcv5j71T9

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) January 18, 2019

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#Market Well, so much for the post-election rally. AAPL getting whacked, unlike in October, so it seems all bets are off. We could just remain in this wide range into year end, but things are not pretty with two days in a row like this.

Had to stop out on $TWLO puts with a loss… a painful whipsaw for me on the earnings trade. Staying away for now as it is still dropping.
No TSLA trade this week because margin req are jacked on that ticker by my broker.
BTC $DUST Mar 15th 60 call for 1.15. Sold for 3.65 (avg price) in Aug/Sept)
Stopped $BOIL Mar 15th 45 call for 8.00. Sold for 2.40, avg price. Working on some rolls to the new 60 strikes..

#Market Pretty in-depth analysis, published Monday, but an interesting read and lots of historical data comparisons to geek out on.

Will The U.S. Stock Market Enter A Bear Market In Mid-2019?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4213219-will-u-s-stock-market-enter-bear-market-midminus-2019

#Market We just hit the lowest $TICK since mid-May. It seems every day we start the day strong, and then hit volatility in the afternoon, before closing out on a mini-rally.

#Market

Here is every time in the past 25 years when the Dow closed at a 52-week high while most of the NYSE was in a bear market. pic.twitter.com/CZNWhZhq30

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) October 3, 2018

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#Market Financials ($XLF) got off their ass yesterday and are up again today, but tech ($XLK) is tumbling. Seems that these rallies can’t get everyone to join the party at the same time.

#Market Today we are down less than 1%, which in 2018 is notable. VIX not up much, and UVXY and VXX could barely be considered to be spiking, given the huge drop they saw in the last week. UVXY had been at 20 for a couple weeks, then a quick drop to 15, and barely up today.

Meantime, SPX could barely get above 2700. Is this the new normal? Consolidating indices all year and volatility drifts downward as we get used to it?

I thought this was an interesting view on the current #Market

Wall Street strategist Tom Lee sees the S&P 500 falling 5% in the next 30 days

#Market I rarely post CNBC talking heads, but this guy is always sensible and rarely wrong.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/08/fundstrat-strategist-tom-lee-sees-the-sp-500-falling-5-percent-in-the-next-30-days.html

#Market A slight miss this month. Market don’t care.

+156,000 non-farm jobs in August. June/July revised down a total of -41,000
Unemployment rate up one tick to 4.4%, after ticking down to 4.3% in July.
U6 unchanged at 8.6%, unchanged
Avg hourly earnings up +0.1%, worse than July +0.3% and June +0.2%
Labor Force Participation 62.9%, unchanged.

#Market Another bounce off the threat of a correction. This market simply does not want to go down. VIX is down but not plummeting so probably a good place to sell the market.

#Market Entertaining to watch…

After hitting a 24-year low, VIX now up +18%
After hitting an all time high, Nasdaq now down over 3%
After hitting all time hign, SPX down over half a percent… interesting but not the +3% of NDX
After hitting all-time high, RUT only now went negative.

#Market We leave tomorrow for a 2-week trip to Boston, New York City, and Milwaukee. I plan to meet up with Bistro follower Ralph in NYC… let me know if anyone would like to connect in any of those cities.

And as most trading website moderators claim, when I travel the market seems to be volatile… sure enough, we got a Downside Warning the day before I leave. So I guess if nothing else worries you, consider my travel plans the market indicator!

#Market A long overdue update of my SPX positions (at right). Also, good article from Robert J. Shiller about the market: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/31/upshot/trump-bull-market-stocks.html?ref=business&_r=0

#Market – more weakness today and could get worse into Friday if the earth Care bill continues to struggle on the Hill.

Meantime, $SNAP doesn’t seem to care. May be time to go long.

#Market The Skew hit 141 yesterday, the highest since July 1st. It is typically a bearish sign when SKEW exceeds 135. However, it isn’t a very solid indicator. The July high was the highest since the indicator started, but it occurred AFTER the Brexit dip and before we hit new all-time highs.

The VIX is a better indicator, and it is up for the 9th straight day, even with SPX wavering around flat.

#Market Second day in row with an UP open on SPX with the VIX also opening higher. We’ve had five straight days of a rising VIX, back near its highs from Oct 13th.

#Market Tomorrow, my guess we’ll get a decent job number, and it will give us an initial pop in the pre-market…. but I believe it will fade and we will end the day down. I don’t have a ton of conviction in it, however; will be ready to play either direction. But I believe near-term risk is more to downside.