$MRNA STO 8/14 75 calls at 1.05
Why is it still rising?
Earnings Season Shocker: FAAMG Earnings Grew By 2% While EPS For The Other 495 S&P Companies Plunged 38%.
Meanwhile the carnage among small caps was unprecedented with Russell 2000 EPS plunging by 97%.
“Goldman, which over the weekend turned incrementally more bullish on the economy and hiked its GDP forecast as it now expects that a covid vaccine will be discovered and widely distributed in Q1 2021, resulting in what Goldman believes will be a sharp jump in consumption in the first half of next year (whether that actually happens in a country where more than half refuse to get vaccinated is a different story completely), has done a post-mortem on Q2 earnings season and also found some more “good news.”
First, after expecting a 60% plunge in EPS in Q2, Goldman’s David Kostin was delighted to report that S&P 500 EPS declined by “only” 34% year/year, well above both consensus expectations for a -45% decline, and Goldman’s own forecast of a nearly double drop.”
#IronCondor – Sold KLAC SEP 18 2020 230 / 220 – 175 /165 Iron Condor @ $2.85. KLAC currently trading @ $203.
STO September 4, 150/300 strangle at 3.50
#ShortPuts – Same as LVGO. Out another week and 10 points lower than original sale…
Sold TDOC SEP 04 2020 165.0 Put @ 4.30
#UnbalancedButterfly – Sold SEDG 1 x 3 x 2 SEP 18 2020 210 / 200 / 200 Unbalanced Put Butterfly @ 2.68 credit.
A starter position on the basis I will be wrong until proven otherwise, whereupon I will add to the position.
It’s useful to look at the Unbalanced Butterfly as the combination of a 1 x long put spread and a 2 x short put spread.
Adjustments down the road: all the risk is to the downside. If SEDG drops below $200 then I cash out the long put spread and use those funds to roll the 2 x short put spread down and out.
#ShortPuts – Adding a week further out and 10 points lower than first sale. Still highest IV rank on my main list. A lot of LABU getting ready to close so replacing with this. Doctors or drugs? Close enough for medical exposure. LOL
Sold LVGO SEP 4 2020 100.0 Put @ 2.05
Bought to open 06/18/2021 10.0 Puts / Sold VXX 08/14/2020 26.0 Puts @ 0.14 Credit with VXX at 26.05.
The long has 312 Days to Expiration so the short can be rolled a few times 🙂
#ShortStrangles – Sold NFLX SEP 4 2020 425.0/575.0 Strangle @ 4.75
MS BTO STOCK @50.58
MS STO 8/14/20 51.0 CALLS @.53
MGM STO 8/14/20 23.0 CALLS @.56
Sold ADS 08/14/2020 51.0 Covered Calls @ 0.25 replacing similar calls from last week
Sold ADS 08/14/2020 52.0 Diagonal Call @ 0.30 replacing a similar call from last week
On Friday SDC stock closed above our strike price of $8.50 resulting in stock being assigned. Purchased the stock on Jul 13. Adjusted our option position on a weekly basis. Diagonal down from $9 to $8.50 on Jul 17 and Calendar rolls on Jul 24, 31 and Aug 7.
On Friday PTON stock closed above our strike price of $66 and stock was assigned. We purchased the stock on July 20. Calendar roll on 7/24 and Diagonal Roll up from $63.50 to $66 on Jul 31. We had an order in for a diagonal roll up on Aug 7 but didn’t get filled resulting in the assignment. Intend to establish a new covered call position in PTON today.
On Friday ISRG closed above strike price of $675 resulting in assignment of the shares. Shares were originally purchased on June 1. Over the 67 days we held the stock we adjusted our position on a weekly basis as shown in the table below.
$PFE 41 calls
$RAD 16.5 calls
APT 20 calls
$MRVL 40 calls
BTC MDLZ Aug 07 $55.0 short straddle @ $0.66 (originally sold for $1.18)
STO MDLZ Aug 14: $55.0 short straddle @ $1.21
Option Gods teaching me the meaning of gamma with these weekly straddle sales!
Cover is the Jan 2022 long $40 put / $65 call strangle.
BTC EWZ Aug 07 $32 straddle @ 0.77 (sold for $1.38)
STO EWZ Aug 14 $31.5 straddle @ $1.46
Cover is EWZ Jan 2022 long strangle $27 call / $37 put
#OptionsExpiration – Let another one go the distance…
UVXY 26.0 Calls (sold for 1.45)
ADS 08/07/2020 47.0 Diagonal Call
ADS 08/07/2020 47.5 Diagonal Call
ADS 08/07/2020 51.0 Covered Calls
ADS 08/07/2020 52.0 Covered Call
MRO 08/07/2020 6.0 Covered Calls
VIAC 08/07/2020 27.0 Diagonal Calls
VXX 08/07/2020 31.0 Diagonal Calls
VXX 08/07/2020 33.5 Diagonal Call
VIAC 08/07/2020 20.0 Covered Calls (at a small net gain)
– Couldn’t get a decent roll out of this one one more time
#Earnings. Lost 1.25 on my $YELP supposed-to-be-Straddle but ended up being only a long call. Sure enough, I got the direction wrong.
MS 8/14/20 ITM 50.5 PUTS @.93
MS BTO STOCK @50.14
MS STO 8/14/20 51.0 CALL @.46
KODK STO 8/14/20 17.0 CALLS @1.15
AAOI STO 8/14/20 15.0 PUT @.35
Sold AMZN Sep 18 2020 3065/3060 Bull Put @ 6.10
Sold NVDA Sep 18 2020 405/400 Bull Put @ 1.47
Sold BABA Aug 21 2020 245/240 Bull Put @ 1.55
Bought to close PTON Sep 18 2020 60 Put @ 3.05 (sold @ 4.38)
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 14th 3315/3335-3345/3365 condors for 16.30, with SPX at 3342.
Expiring: Aug 7th 3165/3185 call spreads for 20.00 DEBIT. This is the one I sold last Friday , but never had a chance to take profit as index only moved up since then. Sold last Friday for 18.95, closed puts for .05, so total loss 1.10.
#ShortStrangles – A little more risk reduction…
Bought to Close NFLX AUG 21 2020 425.0/575.0 Strangle @ 1.56 (sold for 10.70)
#ShortPuts – This ticker is nearly completely cash secured even in a PM account so unloading it too. Hoping for new entries next week.
Bought to Close TQQQ AUG 21 2020 90.0 Puts @ .70 (sold for 2.50)
#ShortPuts – Thinning the herd a little in case there’s more weakness next week…
Bought to Close TQQQ AUG 21 2020 90.0 Put @ .70 (sold for 3.30)
Bought to Close TQQQ SEP 18 2020 45.0 Puts @ .35 (sold for 1.35)
#ShortPuts – Taking a small shot next week. Earnings the following week so should be able to get a nice roll if needed.
Sold NVDA AUG 14 2020 420.0 Put @ 2.90
Bought to close VXX 08/07/2020 27.0 Diagonal Puts @ 0.30
Sold these during the week @ 0.56/0.50/0.33 and 0.60
Replaced them with half the number of 08/14/2020 26.0 Puts @ 0.61.
Even swap on the cash.
New shorts are sold against 2021/2022 long puts.
Will add to my shorts for next week if higher prices become available.
Riding this rally a little longer
Bought to close AAL 08/07/2020 14.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.02. Sold these @ 0.26 Yesterday.
Replaced them with AAL 08/14/2020 15.0 Calls @ 0.16.
Also rolled up 1 AAL 08/07/2020 13.0 Covered Call to AAL 08/14/2020 13.50 Covered Call @ 0.30 Credit
#ShortStrangles – Filled on the new one so closing the current one…
Bought to Close TSLA AUG 21 2020 800.0/3200.0 Strangle @ .75 (sold for 6.10)
#ShortStrangles – Trying another one…
Sold TSLA SEP 18 2020 700.0/2900.0 Strangle @ 6.54
Bought to Open 1 VXX Nov 20 2020 70 Call at $0.98.
Preparing for election fireworks.
#CoveredCalls – Stock should be assigned around a 19.75 basis so getting an early start on covered calls. Planning on closing the long side of the put spreads a little later and letting the shorts get assigned so lower the better rest of the day.
Sold SPCE AUG 14 2020 17.5 Calls @ 1.58
Bought to close WBA 08/07/2020 41.50 Covered Calls / Sold WBA 08/14/2020 42.0 Covered Calls @ 0.17 Credit.
I want to keep this dividend payer a bit longer and it goes ex-div on 08/18 for 0.4675 per share.
I’m guessing the stock will run a bit next week as the dividend date approaches.
Bought to close KSS 08/07/2020 21.50 Covered Calls / Sold KSS 08/14/2020 22.0 Covered Calls @ 0.32 Credit
Bought to close KSS 08/07/2020 22.0 Diagonal Calls / Sold KSS 08/14/2020 23.0 Covered Calls @ 0.17 Credit
#ShortPuts – Keeping my hedge on…
Rolled UVXY AUG 7 2020 24.0 Puts to AUG 14 2020 23.0 Puts @ .12 credit (1.35 total now)
STO September 37 puts at 1.15
#CoveredCalls – Stock never got as weak as I was hoping so letting stock get called away slightly below my basis. Replacing with a short put for recovery.
WYNN Stock called away @ 65.0 (basis 68.95)
Sold WYNN AUG 14 2020 71.5 Put @ 1.05
Rolled my WDC 08/07/2020 40.0 Puts out a week to 08/14/2020 40.0 Puts for a 0.15 Credit
Bought to close VIAC AUG 07 2020 28.00 Calls @ 0.01. Sold these before earnings @ 0.49 on 08/03
#Jobs — an increase that sightly beats expectations.
Gain of +1,763,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected 1.48M gain
Unemployment at 10.2%, down by 0.9%, vs. expected 10.6%
U6 unemployment at 16.5%, down by 1.5%
Labor force participation 61.4%, down by 0.1%
Average hourly earnings up 0.2%.
June jobs revised down by -9K
May jobs revised upward by +26K
Sold VXX 08/14/2020 26.0 Puts @ 0.70 against 2021/2022 long puts already paid for by earlier diagonal spreads.
STO September 18, 1330/1350-1880/1900 iron condor at 9.00
STO September 18, 300/350-600/650 iron condor at 1.30,
#CoveredCalls – I’ve got a few shares of stock I’ve been covering to keep my basis somewhat near the stock drop. Instead of selling more aggressive strikes I’ve been going out further and overlapping the sales. Once I can safely get a stop on a batch I sell the next ones. This week looks safe so…
Earlier this week:
Sold UVXY AUG 14 2020 25.0 Calls @ 1.50
Sold UVXY AUG 21 2020 25.0 Calls @ 1.42
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 12th 3320/3340-3350/3370 condors for 15.80 with SPX at 3347. I didn’t buy the ATM spread yesterday because it was going for over 19.00. Wait one day and now it is the cheapest I’ve ever gotten on this strategy. Does this mean I should always wait for 6 days out rather than 7?
Also, BTC $SPX Aug 7th 3155/3135 put spreads for .05. This is for the lottery ticket chance of a major down day tomorrow, allowing me to close the call side for a profit without worrying about the put side. Condors SOLD last Friday for 18.95.
Early early on this, but with the run up yesterday, no sense in letting things sit.
Rolled $LULU Aug-14-2020 285/295 #BuPS // Sep-04-2020 290/300 @1.55 Credit.
STO WDC Oct16’20 30 PUT @ 0.72
STO WDC Jan15’21 30 PUT @ 2.01
#ShortPuts – A few more…
Bought to Close EWZ AUG 14 2020 28.0 Puts @ .07 (sold for .71)
Bought to Close TSLA AUG 21 2020 600.0 Put @ .20 (sold for 2.27)
VIAC STO 8/7/20 27.0 CALLS @.34
VIAC STO 8/7/20 27.0 PUTS @.43
VIAC BROKE A DOUBLE TOP ON THE POINT & FIGURE CHART, GIVING A BUY SIGNAL TODAY.
WDC STO 8/7/20 37.0 PUT @.38 @fuzzball’s idea, I ran with it. Thank you fuzz.
#ShortPuts – Taking a few chips off the table…
Bought to Close LABU AUG 14 2020 40.0 Puts @ .15 (sold for 1.15)
Bought to Close TNA AUG 21 2020 20.0 Puts @ .06 (sold for .61)
#JadeLizards #Earnings – This thing has proven that it can go anywhere on earnings. I guess that’s why it’s got the highest IV Rank on my list today by a wide margin. It’s down on the day and I’m playing it further to the downside. Going with the Jade Lizard with the put side close to 1.5x the expected move….2x the expected move including today’s down move. No upside risk but will need the stock down 20 more for a shot at max profit.
Sold STMP AUG 7 2020 215.0/245.0/250.0 Jade Lizard @ 5.90
#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 7, 2020 AC +2.35%
Feb. 13, 2020 AC -3.47%
Nov. 7, 2019 AC +15.43%
Aug. 8, 2019 AC +5.20%
May 9, 2019 AC -14.37%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -0.70%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65%
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 12.03%
Bias 0.85%, slightly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 27.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 24.15 to 29.85 (+/- 10.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 23.75 to 30.25
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 19.53 to 34.47
Based on DOWN max only (-26.6%): 19.82
Open to requests for other symbols.
Not a stock but …..
I couldn’t let the price get above 2050 go without some action on my part.
Sold a portion of my coins bought in 2014 @ 1205/oz.
I’m sure gold goes to $2500 now
Bought 1 VXX Sep 18 2020 40.00 Call & 1 VXX Oct 16 2020 51.00 Call , both @ 0.98.
I’ll write against these on any VIX explosion.
I can’t believe we won’t have some market moving news before the fall.
KODK BTO STOCK @15.92
THC STO 8/14/20 40.0 NTM CALLS @1.10
KODK STO 9/7/20 17.0 CALL @.97 Expires tomorrow.
Not sure why I didn’t do this a long time ago. Very easy to add the column to watchlists and do custom scans for IV rank. It’s an old video but still works perfectly.
#ShortPuts – Down a little after earnings…
Sold ROKU SEP 18 2020 125.0 Put @ 2.80
#ShortPuts – Adding to my original position…
Sold WDC AUG 21 2020 40.5 Puts @ 2.75
BTC August 21, 1800/1820-1350/1330 iron condor at 4.70, sold at 9.45, following TT, I.C. plan.
We have been tracking the daily profitability of covered call positions for an extended period of time. Many of the positions have been rolled several times. If stock is assigned it was removed from the tracking and considered closed. The following positions are “open”.
- Blue Line = Profit or Loss on stock
- Orange Line = Profit or Loss on Option
- Black Line = Net or Combined for Stock and Option.
If the Black Line is above the Blue Line the “covered call” is outperforming just owing the stock. If Black Line is Below Blue the stock is outperforming the covered call.
Western Digital Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2020 Financial Results
— Fourth quarter revenue was $4.3 billion , up 18% year-over-year (YoY).
Data Center Devices and Solutions revenue grew 32%, Client Devices grew
19%, and Client Solutions declined 9% YoY. Fiscal year 2020 revenue was
$16.7 billion , up 1.0% YoY.
— Fourth quarter GAAP earnings-per-share (EPS) was $0.49 and non-GAAP EPS
was $1.23 . Both GAAP and non-GAAP EPS include $96 million in costs
related to COVID-19 in the fourth quarter. Fiscal year 2020 GAAP EPS was
($0.84) and non-GAAP EPS was $3.04 .
— Generated operating cash flow of $172 million and free cash flow of $261
million in the fourth quarter. Generated operating cash flow of $824
million and free cash flow of $1.1 billion in fiscal year 2020.
— Expecting first fiscal quarter 2021 revenue to be in the range of $3.7 to
$3.9 billion with non-GAAP EPS in the range of $0.45 to $0.65 . Non-GAAP
EPS outlook includes costs related to COVID-19.
#SPX7dteLong I am not buying a spread for next Wednesday because, like last Friday, it is going for over 19.00. I don’t know why this is, as I was able to buy Monday’s spread for only 16.65, which is perhaps the least I have ever paid. I SOLD one on Friday, but that spread will be a loss unless we drop into Friday’s close. Friday is the unemployment report for July, so it could be a wild day.
Expired: $SPX Aug 5th 3245/3265 call spreads for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Wednesday for 16.85.
#SPX1dte Expiring: Aug 5th 3220/3240-3345/3365 condors, sold yesterday for .85.