SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX June 8th 3130/3150 call spreads for 16.85. Condors bought last Wednesday for 17.10. I’m taking a small loss now on the possibility of a roll over and going negative. If we do that in the next hour or two I should be able to get some decent premium for selling the 3120/3100 put side.

LABU STMP

#ShortPuts – Book ’em!

Bought to Close LABU JUL 10 2020 47.5 Puts @ .05 (sold for 1.90)
Bought to Close STMP JUL 17 2020 150.0 Put @ .30 (sold for 3.53)

WBA earnings analysis

#Earnings $WBA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 2, 2020 BO -6.29%
Jan. 8, 2020 BO -5.83%
Oct. 28, 2019 BO +0.68%
June 27, 2019 BO +4.08% Biggest UP
April 2, 2019 BO -12.80% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2018 BO -5.02%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO -1.94%
June 28, 2018 BO -9.90%
March 28, 2018 BO +2.47%
Jan. 4, 2018 BO -5.17%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +3.07%
June 29, 2017 BO +1.66%

Avg (+ or -) 4.91%
Bias -2.92% significant negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 42.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 39.70 to 45.30 (+/- 6.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 40.41 to 44.59
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.8%): 37.06 to 47.94
Based on UP max only (+4.1%): 44.23

Open to requests for other symbols.

BBBY earnings analysis

#Earnings $BBBY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 15, 2020 AC +18.01% Biggest UP
Jan. 8, 2020 AC -19.21%
Oct. 2, 2019 AC +2.69%
July 10, 2019 AC -3.03%
April 10, 2019 AC -8.75%
Jan. 9, 2019 AC +16.55%
Sept. 26, 2018 AC -20.99% Biggest DOWN
June 27, 2018 AC -3.81%
April 11, 2018 AC -19.95%
Dec. 20, 2017 AC -12.49%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -15.87%
June 22, 2017 AC -12.12%

Avg (+ or -) 12.79%
Bias -6.58%, strongly negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 10.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 8.26 to 11.74 (+/- 17.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 8.72 to 11.28
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.0%): 7.90 to 12.10
Based on UP max only (+18.0%): 11.80

Open to requests for other symbols.

VXX Diagonal Calls

Sold VXX 07/10/2020 40.0 Calls @ 0.21
Sold 1 VXX 07/10/2020 38.0 Call @ 0.38.

Looking to balance out my short put exposure.
VXX at 33.38

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 8th 3045/3065-3205/3225 condors for 1.10, IV 19%, SPX 3047, deltas -.04, +.06

ROKU

#ShortPuts – Still trying to talk this one down…

Sold ROKU JUL 24 2020 115.0 Put @ 2.07

RAD Roll

#coveredcalls
$RAD BTC 18.50 call and STO 7/24 19 call at added .05 credit.

AMZN call spread

Sold $AMZN 7/17 3110/3130 bear call spread @ 5.20 with the stock around 3021.

LABU Put / NEO Call Roll / PFE Strangle

#shortputs
$LABU STO 7/24 51.5 put at 1.60
#coveredcalls
$NEO BTC 7/17/35 call and STO 8/21 40 call at .40 debit. Stock at 35.49
#shortstrangles
$PFE STO 7/10 34/34.5 strangle at .61