The link with charts and data is here:
https://optionalpha.com/blog/0dte-options-strategy-performance#:~:text=Top%20Performing%20Trades-,0DTE%20Options%3A,-Strategy%20Insights%20fromCharacteristics of Profitable 0DTE Traders

This research represents the activity and habits of the roughly 20% of Option Alpha 0DTE traders who have over 100 trades and are net profitable. 100 trades were chosen arbitrarily but should provide a “good enough” filter to represent a serious 0DTE trader.
The results provide an overview of the trading behaviors and performance of profitable traders for different strategy types, holding periods, and entry and exit conditions.
The research showed that three key variables led to better performance:
• Strategy type
• Entry & exit times
• Profit targets & stop losses
Neutral strategies
Neutral strategies were not only the most popular setups, they also had the best performance overall. Iron butterflies and iron condors comprised 78% of 0DTE positions and had win rates of 66.76% and 70.19%, respectively.
Entry & exit time of profitable trades
Most profitable trades were entered after the morning volatility and remained open for an average of approximately two hours. Broadly, consistently profitable traders opened positions at approximately 10:15 AM ET and closed shortly after 12:00 PM ET.

Line graph showing the entry time for all profitable 0DTE trades at Option Alpha.

Line graph showing the exit time for all profitable 0DTE trades at Option Alpha.
Optimizing profit targets and stop losses
Next, we wanted to determine what the most common exits were for both profitable and losing trades since the majority of these trades were not held until expiration.
The average percentage gain and loss for each strategy type highlights where successful traders are putting their profit-taking and stop losses.

The average gain and loss % for profitable 0DTE positions.
The data shows that targeting iron butterflies with small profit targets and stop losses led to successful trading based on the research. Profitable Option Alpha traders opened trades at 10:15 am EST on Mondays and Wednesdays and closed the position when it hit a profit of 15%, cut losses at -25%, or exited the trade at 12:00pm EST if neither exit criteria were met.

Let The Profits Roll

Added Economic Calendar and Earnings Chart to banner on top. Nice job @jeff. Thanks for all you do,
And when you click on either one and scroll down you can play music. An oasis in the whirl of trading. 👍

Fed Rate

It was 11 rate hikes in less than two years for a total of 525 basis points. And since rates were coming from such a low base of 0.25%, the Fed effectively hiked rates 21-fold.

Almost all of their funds have large cost value and low current value. This is the genomic one.

Western Digital ($WDC) just replaced Nvidia ($NVDA) as Morgan Stanley’s Top Pick.
PS They still like $NVDA.

“It’s an existential threat to the food industry and certainly an existential threat to the processed food industry.”
— Marion Nestle, an emeritus professor of nutrition, food studies and public health at New York University, on how popular weight loss drugs like Ozempic could upend the marketing of snack foods in America.

Nestle is the very best … chocolate. Hmmmmmm?

Last years performance not great

Buy Calls 50 trades Lost money (Stop buying calls)
Sell Calls 300 trades lost money (bad rolls – know when to fold them)
Sell Puts 223 trades made money offsetting all of the above (Think Mike, what does that tell you)
BUCS 64 trades Lost money
BUPS 65 trades Made money offsetting BUCS
BECS 53 Trades Made money

$SPX Strategy
BUPS 159 trades Lost money. Lesson learned. Trade these and stay close to your trading device.
BECS 136 trades Made money offsetting half of the BUPS loss above.

Thanks to everyone who makes this community a great learning experience.

Make 2024 the BEST ever.

Wanted to make sure I provided a citation

Almost a third of the 417 respondents to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey say they will increase their China investments over the next 12 months. That compares with just 19% in a similar August survey and is higher than the 25% who planned to boost exposure in March last year. After funds trimmed exposure to the country’s shares to the lowest levels in years, only a fifth of the survey’s respondents now anticipate cutting their China holdings. Chinese stocks peaked in early 2021 and have since slumped almost 60%, with the MSCI China Index lagging an index of global stocks for three consecutive years — the longest streak since 2001.

The November PCE prices report fell 0.1% month over month, better than the forecasted rise of 0.1%. The year over year rate was 2.6%, which was also better than the estimate. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, was expected to rise 0.2% but only rose 0.1%, which adds to a string of positive inflation news. Additionally, the core year-over-year rate was 3.2%, an improvement to the forecasted 3.3%. The PCE is the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge, and while it has fallen most of the year, it remains above the central bank’s 2% long-term target.

Personal Income was up 0.4% in November as expected, while Personal Spending rose 0.2%. Consumers appear to still be doing well, which could be a good sign for the economy.
Chinese video game and software stocks fell on Friday after Chinese regulators announced new gaming restrictions in the government’s campaign to curb gaming addiction. The plan is to limit the amount of money and time spent online. NetEase (NTES) and Bilibili (BILI) were among the losers tumbling 21% and 11% respectively overnight.

Sentiment always reverses faster than you’d expect. At first, it might feel like the bad times will only worsen. But when they don’t, folks begin to look at the bright side – and the next thing you know, everyone’s bullish again.

Typically, that process takes time… usually months, not weeks or days. But the recent stock reversal is an exception.

You see, stocks were oversold at the October bottom based on the relative strength index (“RSI”).

The RSI looks at recent prices to determine if a stock has moved too far, too fast. When that happens, a snapback rally is possible. So it’s worth paying attention to this indicator.

We generally refer to an RSI reading below 30 as “oversold.” In other words, a rally is likely. And we refer to an RSI above 70 as “overbought,” meaning a decline is likely. The S&P 500 Index just went from oversold to overbought in just a month.

Reversals that quick have only happened 10 other times since 1950. That makes today’s action incredibly rare.

More important, the market sees consistently higher gains after these setups.

You might expect stocks to suffer after becoming overbought. But history shows the opposite is likely to happen after a quick RSI reversal. In fact, the market tends to massively outperform the typical 7.9% annual gains we’ve seen since 1950.

Similar instances led to 4.4% gains in three months, 8% gains in six months, and an impressive 12.5% gain over the next year. Those are solid results. Plus, stocks were higher a year later 70% of the time.

This isn’t what we’d typically expect after the RSI shows stocks are overbought. And most folks out there are still looking for reasons to sell.

But the data is clear. It tells us that the recent rally will continue. So don’t get caught on the sidelines as it unfolds.

Tomorrow: The health of the auto market will be in focus, with AutoZone and Nio, the Chinese electric vehicle maker, set to deliver results.

Wednesday: Earnings reports are due from GameStop and C3.ai, with shares in the latter up roughly 175 percent this year amid investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence.

Thursday: Lululemon and Dollar General report results.

Friday: It’s the jobs report. Economists have estimated that employers added roughly 200,000 positions last month, which would keep the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.9 percent. Market watchers will be paying particular attention to wage gains and revisions of previous months’ data for an indication of whether the labor market is cooling off, or if October’s tepid report was just a blip.