OptionsExpiration

EXPIRED:
AAL 08/14/2020 13.50 Covered Call
AAL 08/14/2020 15.00 Diagonal Calls
ADS 08/14/2020 51.00 Covered Calls
ADS 08/14/2020 52.00 Diagonal Call
ADS 08/14/2020 55.00 Diagonal Calls
SLB 08/14/2020 21.50 Covered Calls
SLB 08/14/2020 22.00 Diagonal Calls
VXX 08/14/2020 31.00 Diagonal Calls
VXX 08/14/2020 31.50 Diagonal Calls
VXX 08/14/2020 32.00 Diagonal Calls
VXX 08/14/2020 32.50 Diagonal Calls
WBA 08/14/2020 42.50 Covered Calls
WFC 08/14/2020 26.00 Covered Calls
WFC 08/14/2020 28.00 Covered Call

VXX 08/14/2020 25.00 Diagonal Puts

ASSIGNMENTS:
NONE

Rolls

My timing sucked today 😦

VXX roll Down

Bought to close VXX 08/14/2020 26.0 Puts @ 0.59.
Sold VXX 08/21/2020 25.0 Puts @ 0.71.
VXX is at 25.48

Sold the 26 puts all during the last week at 0.92, 0.60, 0.67, 0.70 and 0.69

KSS roll

Another one I was hoping would expire after it dropped to 22.56 this morning. I hate Friday explosions
Bought to close KSS 08/14/2020 23.0 Diagonal Calls / Sold VIAC 08/21/2020 25.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.12 Credit.
KSS is at 23.87

VIAC roll dangit

I spent all of the last few days hoping this would expire. I hate Friday explosions
Bought to close VIAC 08/14/2020 28.0 Diagonal Calls / Sold VIAC 08/21/2020 30.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.07 Credit.
VIAC is at 28.21

VXX

Sold VXX 08/21/2020 32.50 Calls @ 0.23 with the stock at 25.60
Will replace similar calls expiring tomorrow.
Written against Sept, Oct and Nov long calls.

KSS – rolling into earnings

Bought to close KSS 08/14/2020 22.00 Covered Calls / Sold KSS 08/21/2020 22.50 Covered Calls @ 0.80 Credit plus another half point on the strike.
That’s a pretty big premium with the stock at 23.0.

Also Bought to close KSS 08/14/2020 22.50 Diagonal calls / Sold 08/21/2020 24.50 Diagonal Calls @ 0.27 Credit plus a big 2 point jump in the short strike.

TSLA

Peak Insanity: Tesla Adds $16 Billion In Market Cap After Announcing 5-For-1 Stock Split
Tesla stock has added almost half of GM’s market cap after hours on the news of the stock split.

VXX

Sold VXX 08/14/2020 31.50 Diagonal Calls @ 0.15.
Sold against long Sep 38 and 40 calls.

Sold VXX 08/14/2020 32.00 Diagonal Calls @ 0.16.
Sold against long Oct 48 and 51 calls.

Getting back 15% of the cost of my longs.

Converting some short diagonal put spreads to “Short Calendar Iron Condor Spreads”

VXX

Bought to open 1 VXX 11/20/2020 65.0 Call @ 0.94.
Preparing for election fireworks.

VIAC ADS

Sold VIAC 08/14/2020 28.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.35
Sold ADS 08/14/2020 55.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.25
#DoubleDip

VXX KSS AAL WFC Diagonals

Bought VXX 01/21/2022 5.0 Puts / Sold VXX 08/14/2020 25.0 Puts @ 0.37 Credit
Bought KSS 10/16/2020 30.0 Calls / Sold KSS 08/14/2020 23.0 Calls @ 0.13 Credit
Bought AAL 10/16/2020 25.0 Calls / Sold AAL 08/14/2020 15.0 Calls @ 0.12 Credit
Bought WFC 09/25/2020 30.0 Calls / Sold WFC 08/14/2020 26.0 Calls @ 0.04 Credit

Markets

Why is it still rising?

Earnings Season Shocker: FAAMG Earnings Grew By 2% While EPS For The Other 495 S&P Companies Plunged 38%.
Meanwhile the carnage among small caps was unprecedented with Russell 2000 EPS plunging by 97%.

“Goldman, which over the weekend turned incrementally more bullish on the economy and hiked its GDP forecast as it now expects that a covid vaccine will be discovered and widely distributed in Q1 2021, resulting in what Goldman believes will be a sharp jump in consumption in the first half of next year (whether that actually happens in a country where more than half refuse to get vaccinated is a different story completely), has done a post-mortem on Q2 earnings season and also found some more “good news.”

First, after expecting a 60% plunge in EPS in Q2, Goldman’s David Kostin was delighted to report that S&P 500 EPS declined by “only” 34% year/year, well above both consensus expectations for a -45% decline, and Goldman’s own forecast of a nearly double drop.”

#vixindicator

VXX new diagonal

Bought to open 06/18/2021 10.0 Puts / Sold VXX 08/14/2020 26.0 Puts @ 0.14 Credit with VXX at 26.05.
The long has 312 Days to Expiration so the short can be rolled a few times 🙂

ADS

Sold ADS 08/14/2020 51.0 Covered Calls @ 0.25 replacing similar calls from last week
Sold ADS 08/14/2020 52.0 Diagonal Call @ 0.30 replacing a similar call from last week

OptionsExpiration

Expired:
ADS 08/07/2020 47.0 Diagonal Call
ADS 08/07/2020 47.5 Diagonal Call
ADS 08/07/2020 51.0 Covered Calls
ADS 08/07/2020 52.0 Covered Call
MRO 08/07/2020 6.0 Covered Calls
VIAC 08/07/2020 27.0 Diagonal Calls
VXX 08/07/2020 31.0 Diagonal Calls
VXX 08/07/2020 33.5 Diagonal Call

Assignments:
VIAC 08/07/2020 20.0 Covered Calls (at a small net gain)
– Couldn’t get a decent roll out of this one one more time

VXX

Another #Boredtodeath trade 🙂
Bought VXX Jun 21 2021 9.0 Puts / Sold VXX Aug 14 2020 26.0 Puts @ 0.18 Credit with the stock at 26.85.
Normal #Contango drift in VXX will help the long Puts between now and next June

VXX Puts

Bought to close VXX 08/07/2020 27.0 Diagonal Puts @ 0.30

Sold these during the week @ 0.56/0.50/0.33 and 0.60

Replaced them with half the number of 08/14/2020 26.0 Puts @ 0.61.
Even swap on the cash.
New shorts are sold against 2021/2022 long puts.

Will add to my shorts for next week if higher prices become available.

AAL Rollups

Riding this rally a little longer
Bought to close AAL 08/07/2020 14.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.02. Sold these @ 0.26 Yesterday.
Replaced them with AAL 08/14/2020 15.0 Calls @ 0.16.

Also rolled up 1 AAL 08/07/2020 13.0 Covered Call to AAL 08/14/2020 13.50 Covered Call @ 0.30 Credit

VXX

Bought to Open 1 VXX Nov 20 2020 70 Call at $0.98.
Preparing for election fireworks.

WBA Covered rollup

Bought to close WBA 08/07/2020 41.50 Covered Calls / Sold WBA 08/14/2020 42.0 Covered Calls @ 0.17 Credit.
I want to keep this dividend payer a bit longer and it goes ex-div on 08/18 for 0.4675 per share.
I’m guessing the stock will run a bit next week as the dividend date approaches.

KSS Covered and Diagonal rollups

Bought to close KSS 08/07/2020 21.50 Covered Calls / Sold KSS 08/14/2020 22.0 Covered Calls @ 0.32 Credit
Bought to close KSS 08/07/2020 22.0 Diagonal Calls / Sold KSS 08/14/2020 23.0 Covered Calls @ 0.17 Credit

WDC earnings blowup

Rolled my WDC 08/07/2020 40.0 Puts out a week to 08/14/2020 40.0 Puts for a 0.15 Credit

VIAC calls

Bought to close VIAC AUG 07 2020 28.00 Calls @ 0.01. Sold these before earnings @ 0.49 on 08/03

VXX for next week

Sold VXX 08/14/2020 26.0 Puts @ 0.70 against 2021/2022 long puts already paid for by earlier diagonal spreads.
#DoubleDip

Gold

Not a stock but …..
I couldn’t let the price get above 2050 go without some action on my part.
Sold a portion of my coins bought in 2014 @ 1205/oz.

I’m sure gold goes to $2500 now

VXX

Bought 1 VXX Sep 18 2020 40.00 Call & 1 VXX Oct 16 2020 51.00 Call , both @ 0.98.
I’ll write against these on any VIX explosion.
I can’t believe we won’t have some market moving news before the fall.

WDC

Western Digital Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2020 Financial Results
News Summary
— Fourth quarter revenue was $4.3 billion , up 18% year-over-year (YoY).
Data Center Devices and Solutions revenue grew 32%, Client Devices grew
19%, and Client Solutions declined 9% YoY. Fiscal year 2020 revenue was
$16.7 billion , up 1.0% YoY.

— Fourth quarter GAAP earnings-per-share (EPS) was $0.49 and non-GAAP EPS
was $1.23 . Both GAAP and non-GAAP EPS include $96 million in costs
related to COVID-19 in the fourth quarter. Fiscal year 2020 GAAP EPS was
($0.84) and non-GAAP EPS was $3.04 .

— Generated operating cash flow of $172 million and free cash flow of $261
million in the fourth quarter. Generated operating cash flow of $824
million and free cash flow of $1.1 billion in fiscal year 2020.

— Expecting first fiscal quarter 2021 revenue to be in the range of $3.7 to
$3.9 billion with non-GAAP EPS in the range of $0.45 to $0.65 . Non-GAAP
EPS outlook includes costs related to COVID-19.

AAL

New diagonal spread to go along with my covered Calls
Sold AAL 08/07/2020 14.0 Calls / Bought AAL 10/16/2020 25.0 Calls @ 0.04 Credit.
Rumors of further airline bailouts. The 2 day calls are quite rich with the stock at 12.50.
Another #BoredToDeath trade

AAPL

Apple received a rare analyst downgrade on Wednesday morning from Bank of America, as the market capitalization of the equity approaches an all-time high $2 trillion.

BofA analyst Wamsi Mohan downgraded Apple’s stock to “neutral” from “buy”, citing rapid multiple expansion that has pushed valuations to rich levels. Besides the downgrade, the analyst increased his price target from $420 to $470.

Mohan said Apple shares are trading at the highest premium to the S&P500 in a decade, and now represents 6.5% of the market cap of the entire S&P500.

#eyeroll

VIAC Earnings

Anyone playing this one?

SPY

Rolling one of my long Call Up and out.
Sold to close SPY 08/21/2020 325.0 Call / Bought SPY 10/16/2020 336.0 Call @ 0.30 Credit.
I got a double on my 325 long.

I continue to sell very short term SPY calls against the longs hoping for a decent pullback some day.

VXX

Sold 08/07/2020 27.00 Puts @ 0.56.
Sold against 2021 Long Puts already paid for with earlier diagonal spreads.
#DoubleDip

Markets

Scared money may not make money today, but at least it lives to fight another day…

VXX

Another #Boredtodeath trade 🙂
Bought VXX Jun 21 2021 8.0 Puts / Sold VXX Aug 07 2020 27.0 Puts @ 0.12 Credit with the stock at 27.85.
Normal #Contango drift in VXX will help the long Puts between now and next June

WBA Covered Calls

Sold WBA AUG 07 2020 $42 CALLS @ 0.27 with the stock at 40.80

VXX

Bored to death trade 🙂
Bought VXX Jun 21 2021 7.0 Puts / Sold VXX Aug 07 2020 27.0 Puts @ 0.14 Credit with the stock at 28.20
Contango drift in VXX and a strong market should make the longs worth more than zero someday

OptionsExpiration

Expired:
AAL 07/31/2020 13.50 Covered Call
ADS 07/31/2020 51.00 Covered Calls
KSS 07/31/2020 21.50 Covered Calls
KSS 07/31/2020 22.00 Diagonal Calls
MRO 07/31/2020 5.50 Covered Calls
SLB 07/31/2020 20.00 Covered Calls
SQQQ 07/31/2020 8.50 Covered Calls
WBA 07/31/2020 41.50 Covered Calls
VXX 07/31/2020 32.00 Diagonal Calls
VXX 07/31/2020 33.00 Diagonal Calls
VXX 07/31/2020 37.00 Diagonal Calls

VXX 07/31/2020 28.00 Diagonal Puts
VXX 07/31/2020 27.50 Diagonal Puts

Assignments:
NONE

VIAC

10 minutes before the close the short calls crawled ITM so I rolled
Bought to close VIAC 07/31/2020 26.0 Calls / Sold VIAC 08/07/2020 28.0 Calls @ 0.44 Credit PLUS two more points on the strike price.
#Earnings next week.

VXX puts

Sold VXX 08/07/2020 27.00 Puts @ 0.60. Sold these against already paid for 2021 long puts.
#DoubleDip

VIAC

Rolling into earning week
Bought to close VIAC 07/31/2020 24.0 Calls / Sold VIAC 08/07/2020 24.0 Calls @ 0.52 Credit

INTC

Intel is getting interesting to me as it begins to approach the March lows.
Just putting this out there for ideas.

VXX New Diagonal Call

Bought to open 1 VXX 10/16/2020 70.0 Call / Sold 1 VXX 08/07/2020 33.50 Call @ 0.21 Credit with the stock at 30.95.
Hoping to acquire another free October long position for the coming Election chaos

VXX

Balancing out my large short put position for tomorrow by selling 2 day calls against my long Sep and Oct call positions.
Sold VXX 07/31/2002 32.0 Call @ 0.61 (adding to my position right at my average cost)
Sold VXX 07/31/2002 33.0 Calls @ 0.36

KODK

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kodak-halted-9-times-stock-explodes-higher-amid-flood-retail-buying

Waiting for Weekly options before partaking 🙂

XRX

Back in
Bought XRX / Sold XRX 08/21/2020 15.0 Covered Call @ 14.20 Debit
Bought XRX / Sold XRX 09/18/2020 16.0 Covered Call @ 14.20 Debit.

The low for the year so far on the stock is 14.22
A nice 6.5% dividend too.

GLD

Gartman: “I’m Getting Out Of Gold”

Just the news gold bulls have been waiting for.

VXX Puts

New VXX Put Diagonals
Bought VXX Jan 15 2021 13.0 Puts / Sold VXX Jul 31 2020 27.50 Puts @ 0.12 Credit.
Bought VXX Jan 15 2021 14.0 Put / Sold VXX Jul 31 2020 28.00 Put @ 0.17 Credit.
Adding Jan longs for free if the short puts expire Friday.

CINF

Bought to close 1 CINF 08/21/2020 50.0 Put @ 0.05. It can’t trade any lower. Out almost a month early.
Sold this on 6/19 @ 2.02 when CINF was 63.22

OptionsExpiration

EXPIRED:
AAL 07/24/2020 13.50 Covered Call
ADS 07/24/2020 50.00 Covered Calls
ADS 07/24/2020 50.50 Covered Call
KSS 07/24/2020 21.50 Covered Calls
KSS 07/24/2020 23.00 Diagonal Calls
KSS 07/24/2020 23.50 Diagonal Calls
SLB 07/24/2020 20.50 Covered Calls
SLB 07/24/2020 21.00 Diagonal Calls
SLB 07/24/2020 21.50 Diagonal Calls
VIAC 07/24/2020 26.00 Diagonal Calls
VXX 07/24/2020 33.50 Diagonal Calls
VXX 07/24/2020 34.00 Diagonal Calls
WBA 07/24/2020 41.00 Covered Call
WBA 07/24/2020 41.50 Covered Call
WFC 07/24/2020 27.50 Covered Calls
WFC 07/24/2020 28.00 Diagonal Calls
WFC 07/24/2020 28.50 Covered Call

VXX 07/24/2020 28.00 Diagonal Puts
VXX 07/24/2020 29.00 Diagonal Puts
VXX 07/24/2020 30.00 Diagonal Puts (Barely)

ASSIGNMENTS:
None

VXX Puts

Bought to close VXX 07/24/2020 29.50 Puts @ 0.01. Sold these on 7/20 @ 0.59

VIAC Rollout

Bought to close VIAC 07/24/2020 24.0 Diagonal Calls / Sold 07/31/2020 24.0 Calls @ 0.38 Credit

Markets

Navigating The Tech Bubble & Living To Tell About It

If you have been around the markets for any length of time, you can quickly spot the “pigeons at the poker table.” They are the ones that rationalize why prices can only rise, why “this time is different,” and focus only on the bullish supports.

#MacroView: Navigating The Tech Bubble & Living To Tell About It.

VIAC

Bought to close VIAC 07/24/2020 26.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.01.
Sold these Monday @ 0.44 against long Calls expiring in September

INTC

Intel down 15%.
Wow

#pinaction

SQQQQ

Sold SQQQ 07/21/2020 8.50 Covered Calls @ 0.10

VXX Puts

Bought to close VXX 07/24/2020 28.50 Puts @ 0.01. Sold these on 7/20 @ 0.36 and again @ 0.63.

Started a new position selling some VXX 07/31/2020 28.0 Puts @ 0.41

Markets – AAMTG

The big boys finally get hit – Tech Giants Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla, Google Tumble

fang

https://www.finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec

VXX New Diagonal

Bought to Open 1 VXX Oct 16 2020 70 Call at $1.24
Sold to Open 1 VXX Jul 31 2020 32 Call at $1.36
for a Net Credit at $0.12
Pushing my (hopefully free) long position out closer to the election

VXX

Moving out to next week’s Calls for a diagonal spread.
Sold VXX JUL 31 2020 $37 Calls @ 0.57 against August and September long positions.
#DoubleDip

Doing this as VXX crosses above 30, taking all of tomorrow’s short puts out of the money.

VIX – worth a read

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/volatility-more-number-its-everything

1-5_0

Textbook Volatility Defined
Volatility is a measure of the historical dispersion of returns around a mean. The greater the dispersion, the higher the volatility, and ultimately the range of potential outcomes.

Volatility is typically quoted as +/- 1 standard deviation. For instance, 14% annualized volatility means, with 68% certainty, we should expect annualized returns to be +/- 14%. The volatility formula describes a normal bell-shaped curve in which price changes should be contained.

Normal implies there are equal odds the market falls 1% or rises 1% versus the average change. The graph below depicts a bell-shaped curve. The diagram also highlights standard deviations and the percentage of data that falls within each deviation.

Normal Is Not Reality

The assumption of a normally distributed bell curve is at the heart of finance. Embedded in that assumption is the idea that market participants are rational and markets efficient. It drives risk management, option pricing, and many economic and market theories. The problem with such analysis is that the assumption is flat out wrong.

In a normal shaped curve, the S&P 500 should never move by more than five standard deviations up or down. By “never,” we mean once every 3.5 million trading days (approximately 14,000 years). Since 1970 there have been 34 such days. In March of 2020 alone, there were 7!

Summary
When investor confidence is high, liquidity is high, and volatility is typically low. Plenty of buyers and sellers willing to trade help assure orderly markets. However, when potential buyers become concerned about the risk of loss, liquidity fades. Buyers step away, sellers will take almost any price to protect against even steeper declines, and prices become more volatile. The suddenness of increased volatility and the false assumption of normally distributed prices leads to statistically impossible drawdowns.

Currently, volatility is two times pre-COVID levels. While sharply lower from March and April, liquidity remains problematic.

Volatility reminds us that the market structure is not stable. As a result, markets are more susceptible to sharp price changes. While most markets have been rising in recent months, the liquidity situation argues that bad news or a change in sentiment could result in substantial and nearly instantaneous losses.

Liquidity is poor, complacency is high, trade with caution.

VXX

Sold VXX Jul 24 2020 33.5 Calls at $0.33 against long calls left over from earlier diagonals.
Replacing calls that expired Friday.
#DoubleDip
If this reaches the strike price, the markets will be falling pretty hard.

SLB

Sold SLB 07/24/2020 21.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.16 with the stock at 19.60.
#Earnings this week.
I also have a large covered call position @ 20.50 strike

Markets

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, just saying…

2020-07-20_12-32-00

Markets

If you are not in Tech this market sucks
Change in market cap year-to-date

Amazon +$561 billion
Apple +$365 billion
Microsoft +$335 billion
Tesla +$203 billion
Google +$112 billion

JPMorgan -$138 billion
Wells Fargo -$125 billion
Bank of America -$115 billion
Exxon Mobil -$111 billion
Berkshire Hathaway -$90 billion

This has sent Bloomberg’s Fear-Greed indicator to its highest ever – above March 2000’s previous peak – and as @C_Barraud notes that these highs contrasted with a plunge in March that produced record weekly lows, surpassing those in December 2018 and May 2000.

2020-07-20_12-09-26

SPY Rolls

Bought to close SPY 07/20/2020 305.0 Call / Sold SPY 07/27/2020 305.0 Call @ 0.25 Credit.

Bought to close SPY 07/20/2020 315.0 Call / Sold SPY 07/27/2020 316.0 Call @ 0.12 Credit plus an extra point on the strike/

SPY is just pennies away from it’s highest close since February, so we are overdue for a correction.
#SPYLadder

VXX

Sold VXX 07/24/2020 28.50 Puts @ 0.36 with the stock at 30.15.
Sold against long 2021 and 2022 long Puts and replacing similar puts that expired Friday although at a lower strike.
#DoubleDip

SLB

Sold SLB 07/24/2020 20.50 Covered Calls @ 0.11 with the stock at 18.80.
#Earnings this week 07/24 BMO

OptionsExpiration

Expired:
ADS 07/17/2020 45.0 Diagonal Call
ADS 07/17/2020 47.0 Covered Calls
KSS 07/17/2020 22.50 Diagonal Calls
KSS 07/17/2020 23.00 Diagonal Calls
SLB 07/17/2020 19.50 Covered Calls
SLB 07/17/2020 20.00 Covered Calls
SQQQ 07/17/2020 8.00 Covered Calls
SQQQ 07/17/2020 8.50 Covered Call
VXX 07/17/2020 36.00 Diagonal Call
VXX 07/17/2020 37.00 Diagonal Call
VXX 07/17/2020 38.00 Diagonal Call
VXX 07/17/2020 41.00 Diagonal Calls
VXX 07/17/2020 42.00 Diagonal Call
WFC 07/17/2020 29.00 Covered Calls
WFC 07/17/2020 29.50 Diagonal Calls

VXX 07/17/2020 30.50 Diagonal Puts (barely)
VXX 07/17/2020 30.00 Diagonal Puts
WFC 07/17/2020 24.00 Diagonal Puts

Assignments:
XRX 07/17/2020 15.0 Covered Call – I was only in the stock at little over a week and it exploded higher.
No good roll and no weeklys so I let it go for a gain.

VXX Put Rolls

Bought to Close VXX Jul 17 2020 31.5 Puts / Sold to Open VXX Jul 24 2020 30 Puts @ Net Credit of $0.08 plus a 1.50 drop on the short strike.

Bought to Close VXX Jul 17 2020 31.0 Puts / Sold to Open VXX Jul 24 2020 29 Puts @ Net Credit of $0.07 plus a 2.00 drop on the short strike.

My 30.50 and 30.0 Puts for today should expire shortly

VIAC Rolls

Bought to lose VIAC 07/17/2020 20.0 Covered Calls / Sold VIAC 08/07/2020 20.0 Covered Calls @ 0.25 Credit.
This will keep me in this low p/e highish dividend stock through earnings on the 6th of August.

Also Bought to close VIAC 07/17/2020 25.0 Diagonal calls / Sold VIAC 07/24/2020 26.0 Calls @ 0.24 Credit plus an extra point on the strike price.

VXX New Put Diagonal

Bought to Open VXX Jan 15 2021 15 Puts / Sold to Open VXX Jul 24 2020 30 Puts @ Net Credit of $0.12

VXX Calls

Bought to close VXX 07/17/2020 35.0 Calls @ 0.01.
Sold this on 7/13 @ 1.02 AND AGAIN @ 2.08 as part of two diagonal call spreads.

This leaves me with 2 more zero-cost long VXX Calls.

Letting my 36,37,38,41 and 42 Calls expire

VIAC Roll

With the stock at 24.89 I bought VIAC 07/17/2020 24.0 Calls / Sold VIAC 07/24/2020 24.0 Calls @ 0.45 Credit

VXX

Bought to close 1 VXX 07/17/2020 35.5 Call @ 0.01.
Sold this on 7/13 @ 1.05 as part of a diagonal spread.
I have another zero cost long for any Black swan events in the next month