Sold March 19, 25/33/33/36 for 4.82 Chinese electric SUV company-what could go wrong?
#Earnings Sold to Open $AMZN July 31st 3050/3080/3110 #IronButterfly for 28.45. Risking 1.55 to make up to 28.00 if AMZN ends tomorrow near 3080, or if it swings wildly and passes through the 3080 area. I’ve done this trade many times and paid for the losses by winning two or three times. Doesn’t always sell for this much; 28+ is a good price. But to be clear, probability is highest that it will expire with one side deep ITM , which means a 30.00 debit (thus the 1.55 loss).
This is a classic play I’ve done probably a dozen times. It worked nicely in Q1, with a 20.00 profit. But often, it can be max loss, which tomorrow would be 3.00. Used to get these for closer to 28.00, but times have changed; probably the higher stock price to blame.
#EarlyAssignment last night on just one (1) $NOC Apr 26th 295 put, part of my #DoubleCalendar. Sold the long May 2nd put for 16.00, and waited through the dip to sell stock for 280.50, netting 1.50 for a profit of .43. The rest of my position will probably not fare so well, but I’ll probably hold again tonight and may be assigned more. (Dub cal bought Wednesday for 1.07.
$MMM has made its biggest earnings drop in at least 17 years, which is as far back as I have records. Nothing you can do about that…. it was the perfect candidate for this strategy, but even “perfect” is no guarantee. I will likely close put side today and not risk early assignment. (bought yesterday for .91)
$FFIV jumped around the center strike in the morning but I got no fill. Now looking for it to recover. (bought yesterday for .81)
Not seeing any great candidates for dub cals today. Maybe $SBUX. Looking at a low risk #IronButterfly on $AMZN.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX April 1st 2790/2770 put spreads for .45. This is a roll-up from the puts closed this morning. I’m leaving the 2855/2875 call spread in place.
Expiring: March 29th 2770/2790-2845/2860 condors, sold this morning for 1.10.
$CCL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 20, 2018 BO -9.48% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 27, 2018 BO -4.83%
June 25, 2018 BO -7.85%
March 22, 2018 BO -1.28%
Dec. 19, 2017 BO +2.29%
Sept. 26, 2017 BO +2.86%
June 22, 2017 BO -1.11%
March 28, 2017 BO +0.66%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +2.27%
Sept. 26, 2016 BO -1.67%
June 28, 2016 BO +0.20%
March 30, 2016 BO +5.49% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias -1.04%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 56.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.53 to 59.48
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 54.62 to 58.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 51.14 to 61.86
Based on UP max only (+5.5%): 59.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
#IronButterfly $NOW expiring at max loss of .65.
#IronCondor $AMZN expiring at full profit, sold yesterday for 2.00.
#LongStraddle $EBAY straddle bought for 2.23 on Tuesday. It had a subtle move, so I played the swings and managed to sell for 1.168. Even when long straddles miss, they aren’t too bad provided you have a few days and some swings.
#Earnings $JPM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -1.09%
July 13, 2018 BO -0.45%
April 13, 2018 BO -2.70% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +1.65%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -0.28%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.91%
April 13, 2017 BO -1.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.53%
Oct. 14, 2016 BO -0.32%
July 14, 2016 BO +1.51%
April 13, 2016 BO +4.23% Biggest UP
Jan. 14, 2016 BO +1.49%
Avg (+ or -) 1.36%
Bias 0.21%, slight positive bias on earnings.
NOTE: JPM is a very small mover on earnings. The above are the 1-day moves; I checked 5-day moves, but the +4.23% move above was still the highest.
With stock at 100.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 96.58 to 103.42
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 98.64 to 101.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.2%): 95.77 to 104.23
Open for requests on other symbols.
If we remain bullish today, $AMZN could end up in the #IronButterfly profit range of 1715 to 1765. Fingers crossed.
Exited my mistake long for 28.10 and added the correct short IB.
This is 1.90 of risk for a max gain of 28.10. It’s impossible to make the full 28.10, but if price is within 28.10 from 1740 tomorrow, you’ll win. This is better than I get for this trade usually, I guess do to elevated volatility on the market. You can’t beat the R/R.
I’m going to try another later in the day, perhaps centered higher in the belief that the stock will go up tonight.
Sold $SPX June 14th 2795/2820 call spreads for 1.75
Sold $SPX May 31st 2650/2675/2750/2775 #CondorRoll for 6.70
#OptionsExpiration Expiring at full loss: Long 2770/2790 call spreads, bought for 1.29… Made a couple of profitable rounds with this spread but the remaining ones fizzled out.
#IronButterfly Sold to close $AMZN 1575/1600/1625 butterfly for .84. Bought for 2.95 on May 3rd.
#Earnings Closed remaining $A 65 puts for .75. Avg closing price: 1.10. Strangles (65/75) sold for .77 on Monday.
Closed $OLED May 18th 100 put for 5.70. Sold for 3.50 last week. In the hole on the rolls here… need to assess next week.
#VXXGame BTC $UVXY Jan 2019 70 call for .45. Sold for 6.50, avg price.
Expiring are long calls used as hedges, UVXY 40 calls (bought for .45) and 44 calls (bought for .21).
Expiring at full loss: a bunch of $VXX 30 puts, bought for the avg price of .12
Originally 160/167.5/175 iron butterflys (3) sold for 5.60 on Jan 31st. Closed most before expiration but forgot about one put, so assigned stock at 167.50. Sold today for the same price. With all premium selling and covered calls since then, total profit on the trade is $1,543.
— Expiring w/max profit —
$DG 84 puts
$OLED 140 calls
$TIF 109 calls
— Expiring w/max loss —
$SPX 2840/2860 long call spreads, purchased for 1.00 avg price.
$UVXY 91 long calls… purchased for 0.158 avg price… served me well as hedges against short calls
$SQ long 60 calls, bought for 0.964, avg price
$AVGO 255 long put – I exited one 265 short put for 9.10. Then, volatility at the close denied my fill on closing more, PLUS, we dropped below my long strike. So, this likely means one spread expired ITM, so a 10.00 debit (against 7.60 sale), but I will likely be assigned short shares based on the ITM long 255 put. Because I feel this may bounce on Monday, I’m buying shares after hours so the assignment will cancel out my position and I’ll be flat. This would amount to about a 2.50 loss overall on the trade.
#Earnings Hasn’t been a huge mover, but can surprise and also has been in the news. So I’m taking a favorable R:R trade:
Sold to Open $AVGO 255/265/275 #IronButterfly for 7.60. Max risk, 2.40. Last quarter its one day move was zero. It opened up then traded down all day to end dead flat. Let’s do that again!
Closed $AAPL Feb 2nd 162.5 short put for .70. Sold yesterday for 1.65. Looks like I’ll be assigned some stock today.
$AMZN – My strangles will be fine but having to decide when to close the iron butterfly. Right now it has about a $1200 profit but that will slip away if we keep going higher. Watching closely.
Sold $VRTX Feb 2nd 160/167.5/175 IB for 5.75, 5.56, 5.48 (total of 3, avg price 5.597 — I could only get 1 to fill at a time, and kept having to lower my ask).
Biggest UP move: 7.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.9%, Average move: 2.5%.
Risking 2.15 to make 5.59. Breakevens at Friday’s expiration: 161.91 and 173.09, or about +/- 4.3%.
Here are its last 12 earnings moves: -2.1%, -4.4%, 0.7%, 0.2%, 0.0%, 0.2%, 2.7%, 0.3%, 5.1%, 7.8%, -0.4%, -5.9%.
Closed $SPX Dec 29th 2690/2665 put spread for 7.40. Sold in an #IBroll for 17.55 last week (with 2690/2715 calls)
Also, trying to shake up this dull market: Sold June 3rd 2650/2675/2690/2715 #IronCondor for 6.50. These expire in just two trading days. My expectation is a slight drop tomorrow and then an up day on Tuesday.
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order:
$SPX Jan 5th 2525/2500 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45.
Looks like I’ll be stopping my only short call spread: the Jan 12th 2730/2755 sold last week. Not sure when I can sell those safely again. We already hit my target for the 29th: 2690. That’s where I have an #IronButterfly centered. Reached the target only one day after selling it.
Closed Dec 22nd 2670/2695 call spreads for 11.60. Sold yesterday for 5.55.
#IBroll to Dec 29th 2665/2690/2690/2715 #IronButterfly. Shooting for ending the year at or near 2690, but either way I can roll as necessary.
1. NVDA: Fully closed the #JadeLizard sold for 3.62, partial cover at 1.62 yesterday, rest covered today at 1.35
2. BA: Closed the contrarian BePS, closed for .66 shy of full loss. Prob of touch is still high enough I should have held, but it’s just continuing to be a train.
3. LRCX: Closed the #PutRatioSpread for over 50% gain, 1.45, $1555.00. Recovery mission on big loss last week.
4. MSFT: #Bitty closed for 50%, this was Jan 80/75 BuPS for .82 cr, covered .41
5. SPX : I’m kind of thinking we see a strong market into next week’s expiration, so rolled the short puts on the #RocketManHedge from 2605 to 2625. Realized $2820 in the roll.
6. SPY: Opened #SpikedLizard for January. Part 1: 264/265/267 for 3.74 cr Part 2 (spike) 260/253 ratio put spread for .05. No upside risk, downside BE is 253 due to the spike. Need SPY price above $260 for meaningful profit. 50% target. I’d like to ladder these every 2 weeks.
7. SPX: Opened 7DTE #Bitty I said I didn’t want to do 7DTE Bitties any more, but betting we see an upside into next week’s expiration. Of course I could be all wrong. Got more credit than usual on these. Dec 15 2630/2625 BuPS for average price of .875 credit, 50% target
8. TXN: Opened BuPS for January 97.5/95 for .72, 50% target
9. TJX: Continued defense. Sold Dec 15 calls to adjust deltas
10. MU: Opened #EarningsRunUp trade based on historical backtesting. Partial position. Dec 22 47.5 call for 1.04.
11. PIR: Closed #EarningsRunUp trade for 28% profit, bought at .35, sold at .45
12. ABBV: Opened #BuPS for January 92.5/90 for .56, target 50%
13. FLIR: Opened #SyntheticCoveredCall for January 47 puts for 1.40, very high historical win rate on short puts for this company
14. BBY: Closed the contrarian BePS for loss, salvaging .60 from max loss
15. AAPL: I already have a BuPS on for next week, used this little upswing today to sell calls converting it to an #IronButterfly.
#SPXcampaign Upside Warning looks imminent. Getting long.
Closed on GTC order: $SPX Dec 8th 2480/2455 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.44 on Nov 10th.
Closed Dec 1st 2565/2590 call spreads for 22.15. Sold for 15.60 last week. Waiting to roll.
#Earnings The 30-point ATM #IronButterfly is going for about 25.00 right now (940/970/1000). That would allow a 2.6% move for breakeven. Here are its one day moves last 12 quarters. Quieter lately as stock price has gotten much higher.
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC 0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -5.13%
July 28, 2016 AC 0.82%
April 28, 2016 AC 9.56%
Jan. 28, 2016 AC -7.60%
Oct. 22, 2015 AC 6.22%
July 23, 2015 AC 9.79%
April 23, 2015 AC 14.13%
Jan. 29, 2015 AC 13.71%
Oct. 23, 2014 AC -8.34%
Hey y’all – John Carter put out a video on doing iron flys on TSLA, AMZN. Just wanted to get your option on them AMZN OCT 27 1000/1010/1000/990 for 9.07ish credit
TSLA Nov 3 300/310/300/290 for 9.53 ash credit.
He is using the expected move to come up with strikes.
#Earnings $NFLX seems to be the new kickoff for earnings trades, since the banks last week are pretty dull options-wise. Since it rose so much last week, I’m not finding the greatest premium. I’m thinking of buying a bullish #CallButterfly, 210/220/230 for about 1.25. Low risk for a max 8.75 win, and bullish seems to be the only direction it knows. The other trade is to sell an ATM #IronButterfly 190/200/210 for about 8.15. Similar risk/reward if you think it won’t move much (which was the case last January and April). Here are the FIVE-DAY moves after earnings last 12 quarters:
Mon 07/17/2017 AC 16.59%
Mon 04/17/2017 AC -2.97%
Wed 01/18/2017 AC 3.09%
Mon 10/17/2016 AC 27.75%
Mon 07/18/2016 AC -13.07%
Mon 04/18/2016 AC -11.53%
Tue 01/19/2016 AC -6.64%
Wed 10/14/2015 AC -7.74%
Wed 07/15/2015 AC 12.65%
Wed 04/15/2015 AC 19.33%
Tue 01/20/2015 AC 25.41%
Wed 10/15/2014 AC -19.92%
Closed on GTC order: $SPX Sep 22nd 2475/2450 put spreads for .40. Sold for 2.15 on Sep 13th.
#ITMroll Closed Sep 27th 2470/2495 call spreads for 21.70. Sold for 16.50 on Sep 11th.
Order in to sell Oct 4th 2745/2500 for 21.85… or whatever I can get before the close.
Sold to Open Sep 22nd 2505/2480 put spreads for 4.90. This is sold against the 2505/2530 call spreads, creating an #IronButterfly for Friday expiration. I will close whichever side I need to on Friday (unless we have a major move in either direction)
#Earnings This is a trade I did in 1st quarter that worked nicely. Wayfair has made some big moves on earnings before, which is probably why premiums are so high.
Sold to Open $W Aug 11th 75/80/85 #IronButterfly for 4.25. Max risk .75. Biggest UP move: 28.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -19.6%, Average move: 13.3%. Profits between 75.75 (-3.6%) and 84.25 (+7.2%). Slightly bullish with the trend and high call interest at 80.
— Expiring w/Max Profit —
DUST 45 calls
FSLR 49 covered call
— Assignments —
HCA 83.5 puts, taking stock, cost basis 82.30
FSLR 48 covered call, releasing half of stock position
#SPXCampaign Couldn’t hold onto these with weakness today.
Bought to close $SPX July 28th 2465 puts for 3.00. Sold in the 2465/2440 put spread for 3.70 on July 20th. Will sell the long 2440 puts if we drop more.
I am backing off on put rolls for now, given the market weakness. I have too many spreads near the money. Had been looking to close out the week on a high note with weakness more likely next week, but it came early so now I’m on guard. My main goal now is to get back to normal order with fewer spreads so close to the money.
#Earnings Volatility in the last few minutes got me filled on this, despite very wide bid/ask spreads.
Sold to Open $AMZN July 28th 1037.5/1042.50/1092.5/1097.5 #IronCondor for 3.50. Max risk, 1.50. Set the order when AMZN was at 1068, filled when it was at 1053.
Over last 12 quarters, Biggest UP move: 14.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -9.6%, Average move: 7.4%. This trade is +3.8% and -1.0% OTM.
When you reduce to the last 6 quarters, the moves are smaller: Biggest UP move: 9.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.6%, Average move: 4.6%.
Also considering a 20-point wide #IronButterfly, which I may sell at end of the day.
Closed on GTC order: $SPX July 24th 2415/2390 put spreads for .25. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 5.50 on July 12th.
STOPPED: Closed July 20th 2450/2475 call spreads for 19.60. Sold for 3.75 on July 7th. Added 2450/2425 put spreads for 6.80 on July 13th, creating an #IronButterfly and total premium to 10.55.
#IBroll – Sold to Open July 31st 2445/2470/2495 iron butterfly for 15.65. If I can get out of this IB for less than 6.50 I will have some profit in overall trade. More likely, I’ll be rolling something again.
#ITMroll Closed SPX July 26th 2430/2455 call spreads for 22.85. Sold for 15.20 last week.
Selling Aug 2nd 2435/2460 as a roll, hopefully for 21.00 or more. Will add put spread, too.
#SPXcampaign These closed on GTC orders, on the downs then ups of the day…
$SPX July 7th 2455/2480 call spreads for .25. Sold for 4.25 on June 16th.
$SPX July 10th 2375/2350 put spreads for .25. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 5.60 on June 29th.
I’m leaving the put side of the #IronButterfly now, since it is currently OTM. Will keep an eye and roll it should we drop below 2410.
#SPXcampaign $SPX I’m concerned we may have had another head-fake Downside Warning today… that would be two in a row and time to reassess the mechanics of the signal. I made many trades, some reverse-rolls and some standard rolls. I also clung onto to June 30th 2425/2400 put spread, which may be able to expire tomorrow. Here are my trades in order of execution:
Closed yesterday (but roll not filled): July 5th 2410/2435 call spreads for 20.85. (had planned to sell roll on any move up today, but didn’t get one)
Closed on GTC order: July 14th 2485/2510 call spreads for .20, with SPX at 2421.
#ITMroll: Sold July 12th 2395/2420/2445 #IronButterfly for an #IBroll of ITM spread above. Since I missed my chance to roll to new calls, chose to take this route and will roll the losing side. This got me 10 points higher on the call side.
Sold July 28th 2315/2290 put spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2420. Standard weekly spread.
STOPPED: July 5th 2405/2380 put spreads for 5.40, with SPX at 2412.
#CondorRoll: Sold July 12th 2335/2360/2445/2470 condors for 5.75, w/SPX at 2412.
STOPPED: July 3rd 2430/2405 put spreads for 12.45, with SPX at 2409.
#ReverseRoll: Sold July 3rd 2415/2440 call spreads for 7.40, and July 14th 2440/2465 call spreads for 5.30.
Sold July 28th 2480/2505 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2413. Standard weekly spread.
Closed on GTC order: July 20th 2500/2525 call spreads for .20, with SPX at 2414.
STOPPED: July 20th 2360/2335 put spreads for 2.90.
#Rolling: Sold July 26th 2340/2315 put spreads for 2.05, 1.5x position size, w/SPX at 2418.
STOPPED: July 3rd 2410/2385 put spreads for 5.60, w/SPX at 2412
#CondorRoll: Sold July 10th 2350/2375/2445/2470 condors for 5.60, w/SPX at 2419
I listen to Henry Gambell’s short video on better b’fly. He had 2 trades that expire this friday,
FB 150/145/150/155 for 2.20 credit. Nvda 150/145/150/155for 3.51 credit. Anyone have any thoughts that you care share. I’m a bit more conservative than most when it comes to these types of trades.
Followed from TT Aug. 18 2310/2390/2390/2475 for 60.00, 2475 margin.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX June 23rd 2450/2475 call spreads for 1.70.
Closed SPX May 26th 2300/2275 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 on Apr 28th.
Got stuck having to #ReverseRoll a double-sized position into calls last Wednesday, and had to stop out of them today. So I sold an #IronButterfly, or an #IBroll. This allows me to cut my position size in half, and spreads the risk more moderately in both directions rather than heavily in one direction. I will look to close each side when they get cheap, and if I’m stuck with either side significantly ITM a week before expiry, I will do an #ITMroll.
Stopped: closed SPX May 31st 2390/2415 call spreads for 9.35. Sold for 4.80 last Wednesday.
#IBroll: Sold June 7th 2365/2390/2415 iron butterflys for 18.10.
#Earnings Closed $HD May 19th 157.5 puts for 1.05. Sold in the 155/157.5/160 broken-wing #IronButterfly for 2.82 on Monday.
#Rolling Closed $PANW May 19th 135 put for 18.60. Sold for 25.90 on Apr 19th (as a roll). Sold June 16th 110p for 3.30, and June 16th 130 put for 15.30. Brought my ITM put down 5 points.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX June 15th 2275/2250 put spreads for 1.35.
Sold to Open May 31st 2360/2335 put spreads for 2.70… offsets threatened 2390/2415 call spreads for the same expiry.
BTC $AMZN 920/950 call spreads for 22.00. Sold yesterday for 24.15 (as #IronButterfly)
BTC $SRPT 38.5 calls for .80. Sold yesterday for 1.75 (as 31.5/38.5 strangles).
$FFIV, order in to close 126 puts for .10 (sold as 126/146 strangles for 1.00)
$EXPE 126/146 strangles sold for 1.05… allowing to expire
$PEP 112/115/118 iron butterflys sold for 1.85; early-assigned some stock at 115; going to take assignment on the rest and own stock with 113.15 cost basis.
$ANTM 165/170/175 IB sold for 3.50; the loser for the week. Will allow execution for 5.00, so 1.50 loss.
$DPZ May 19th 165 puts. Order in to close for .05.
All this plus the CMG win… only one loss and one assignment so a very good week!
#Earnings My order is in to sell $AMZN Apr 28th 890/920/950 IB for 25.00. Will consider lowering my ask if no fill by 3:30 ET.
#Earnings Not a big mover on reports, and decent R/R.
Sold to Open $ANTM Apr 28th 165/170/175 #IronButterfly for 3.50. Max risk 1.50. Over last 12 earnings reports, Biggest UP move: 5.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -4.7%, Average move: 2.8%.
This trade is not taking into account the bullish trend. A better positioning might be around the 172.5or 175 strike, or broken-wing with bullish bias.