12/8 Happy Friday

1. NVDA: Fully closed the #JadeLizard sold for 3.62, partial cover at 1.62 yesterday, rest covered today at 1.35
2. BA: Closed the contrarian BePS, closed for .66 shy of full loss. Prob of touch is still high enough I should have held, but it’s just continuing to be a train.
3. LRCX: Closed the #PutRatioSpread for over 50% gain, 1.45, $1555.00. Recovery mission on big loss last week.
4. MSFT: #Bitty closed for 50%, this was Jan 80/75 BuPS for .82 cr, covered .41
5. SPX : I’m kind of thinking we see a strong market into next week’s expiration, so rolled the short puts on the #RocketManHedge from 2605 to 2625. Realized $2820 in the roll.
6. SPY: Opened #SpikedLizard for January. Part 1: 264/265/267 for 3.74 cr Part 2 (spike) 260/253 ratio put spread for .05. No upside risk, downside BE is 253 due to the spike. Need SPY price above $260 for meaningful profit. 50% target. I’d like to ladder these every 2 weeks.
7. SPX: Opened 7DTE #Bitty I said I didn’t want to do 7DTE Bitties any more, but betting we see an upside into next week’s expiration. Of course I could be all wrong. Got more credit than usual on these. Dec 15 2630/2625 BuPS for average price of .875 credit, 50% target
8. TXN: Opened BuPS for January 97.5/95 for .72, 50% target
9. TJX: Continued defense. Sold Dec 15 calls to adjust deltas
10. MU: Opened #EarningsRunUp trade based on historical backtesting. Partial position. Dec 22 47.5 call for 1.04.
11. PIR: Closed #EarningsRunUp trade for 28% profit, bought at .35, sold at .45
12. ABBV: Opened #BuPS for January 92.5/90 for .56, target 50%
13. FLIR: Opened #SyntheticCoveredCall for January 47 puts for 1.40, very high historical win rate on short puts for this company
14. BBY: Closed the contrarian BePS for loss, salvaging .60 from max loss
15. AAPL: I already have a BuPS on for next week, used this little upswing today to sell calls converting it to an #IronButterfly.

SPX trades

#SPXcampaign Upside Warning looks imminent. Getting long.
Closed on GTC order: $SPX Dec 8th 2480/2455 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.44 on Nov 10th.

Closed Dec 1st 2565/2590 call spreads for 22.15. Sold for 15.60 last week. Waiting to roll.

Working on buying some short term call spreads. Also rolling one of these recently closed ITM call spreads into an #IronButterfly or #InverseCondor.

#earningstrade WMT Followed from Tastytrade…

#earningstrade WMT

Followed from Tastytrade Dec. 15 80/90/90/100 #ironbutterfly for 4.38

AMZN earnings

#Earnings The 30-point ATM #IronButterfly is going for about 25.00 right now (940/970/1000). That would allow a 2.6% move for breakeven. Here are its one day moves last 12 quarters. Quieter lately as stock price has gotten much higher.

July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC 0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -5.13%
July 28, 2016 AC 0.82%
April 28, 2016 AC 9.56%
Jan. 28, 2016 AC -7.60%
Oct. 22, 2015 AC 6.22%
July 23, 2015 AC 9.79%
April 23, 2015 AC 14.13%
Jan. 29, 2015 AC 13.71%
Oct. 23, 2014 AC -8.34%

Hey y’all – John Carter…

Hey y’all – John Carter put out a video on doing iron flys on TSLA, AMZN. Just wanted to get your option on them AMZN OCT 27 1000/1010/1000/990 for 9.07ish credit

TSLA Nov 3 300/310/300/290 for 9.53 ash credit.
He is using the expected move to come up with strikes.

#ironbutterfly

NFLX earnings

#Earnings #IronButterfly BTC $NFLX Oct 20th 200 put for 5.80. Sold in the 190/200/210 Iron Butterfly for 8.18 on Monday. Plus I had a call butterfly that was a bust, so profit all together was a whopping 1.18!

NFLX earnings

#Earnings $NFLX seems to be the new kickoff for earnings trades, since the banks last week are pretty dull options-wise. Since it rose so much last week, I’m not finding the greatest premium. I’m thinking of buying a bullish #CallButterfly, 210/220/230 for about 1.25. Low risk for a max 8.75 win, and bullish seems to be the only direction it knows. The other trade is to sell an ATM #IronButterfly 190/200/210 for about 8.15. Similar risk/reward if you think it won’t move much (which was the case last January and April). Here are the FIVE-DAY moves after earnings last 12 quarters:

Mon 07/17/2017 AC 16.59%
Mon 04/17/2017 AC -2.97%
Wed 01/18/2017 AC 3.09%
Mon 10/17/2016 AC 27.75%
Mon 07/18/2016 AC -13.07%
Mon 04/18/2016 AC -11.53%
Tue 01/19/2016 AC -6.64%
Wed 10/14/2015 AC -7.74%
Wed 07/15/2015 AC 12.65%
Wed 04/15/2015 AC 19.33%
Tue 01/20/2015 AC 25.41%
Wed 10/15/2014 AC -19.92%