SPX 1-dte and final trades

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX April 1st 2790/2770 put spreads for .45. This is a roll-up from the puts closed this morning. I’m leaving the 2855/2875 call spread in place.

Expiring: March 29th 2770/2790-2845/2860 condors, sold this morning for 1.10.

#Earnings $CCL #IronButterfly from Monday a flop… exercising for loss of 1.25 on the sale for 2.25.

CCL earnings trade and analysis

#Earnings — I’m selling the CCL Mar 29th 53/56.5/60 #IronButterfly. Trying for 2.30, but will likely have to go lower. Not a big mover… its only large move was in December during the Christmas dive.

$CCL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 20, 2018 BO -9.48% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 27, 2018 BO -4.83%
June 25, 2018 BO -7.85%
March 22, 2018 BO -1.28%
Dec. 19, 2017 BO +2.29%
Sept. 26, 2017 BO +2.86%
June 22, 2017 BO -1.11%
March 28, 2017 BO +0.66%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +2.27%
Sept. 26, 2016 BO -1.67%
June 28, 2016 BO +0.20%
March 30, 2016 BO +5.49% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias -1.04%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 56.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.53 to 59.48
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 54.62 to 58.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 51.14 to 61.86
Based on UP max only (+5.5%): 59.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

EW closed, and remaining earnings trades

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Sold to close $EW Feb01/Feb08 170 dbl cals for 3.25 (avg price). Bought yesterday for 1.57.

#IronButterfly $NOW expiring at max loss of .65.
#IronCondor $AMZN expiring at full profit, sold yesterday for 2.00.
#LongStraddle $EBAY straddle bought for 2.23 on Tuesday. It had a subtle move, so I played the swings and managed to sell for 1.168. Even when long straddles miss, they aren’t too bad provided you have a few days and some swings.

NOW iron butterfly

#Earnings #IronButterfly

Sold to open $NOW Feb 1st 185/190/195 iron butterflys for 4.35. Max risk .65. As I reported below, this one has been more of a minor mover in recent years, so seeing if it can maintain its calm. If not, max loss is tolerable.

#earnings #ironbutterfly GLW Went to…

#earnings #ironbutterfly GLW

Went to Feb. 15, sold 125/130/130/135 for 2.13, works if it’s within the averages. Thanks Jeff

#earnings #ironbutterfly JPM Sold Feb….

#earnings #ironbutterfly JPM

Sold Feb. 15, 90/100/100/110 for 5.21, had to go to Feb for enough premium to cover max moves. Thanks Jeff

JPM earnings analysis

#Earnings $JPM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 12, 2018 BO -1.09%
July 13, 2018 BO -0.45%
April 13, 2018 BO -2.70% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +1.65%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -0.28%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.91%
April 13, 2017 BO -1.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.53%
Oct. 14, 2016 BO -0.32%
July 14, 2016 BO +1.51%
April 13, 2016 BO +4.23% Biggest UP
Jan. 14, 2016 BO +1.49%

Avg (+ or -) 1.36%
Bias 0.21%, slight positive bias on earnings.

NOTE: JPM is a very small mover on earnings. The above are the 1-day moves; I checked 5-day moves, but the +4.23% move above was still the highest.

With stock at 100.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 96.58 to 103.42
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 98.64 to 101.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.2%): 95.77 to 104.23

Open for requests on other symbols.

#ironbutterfly