AMZN half closed

#Earnings Bought to close half of my position, $AMZN Apr 26th 1885/1915/1945 #IronButterfly for 13.22. Sold yesterday for 28.15. Getting a bit nervous about this uptrend… I want to give it more chance to come back to 1915, but locking in nice profit on this first batch now in case it keeps going.

AMZN IB

#Earnings Sold to Open $AMZN Apr 26th 1885/1915/1945 #IronButterfly for 28.15. Risking 1.85 to make hopefully a lot.

#doublecalendar, #longstraddle, #shortstrangles

Dub cal updates

#Earnings
#EarlyAssignment last night on just one (1) $NOC Apr 26th 295 put, part of my #DoubleCalendar. Sold the long May 2nd put for 16.00, and waited through the dip to sell stock for 280.50, netting 1.50 for a profit of .43. The rest of my position will probably not fare so well, but I’ll probably hold again tonight and may be assigned more. (Dub cal bought Wednesday for 1.07.

$MMM has made its biggest earnings drop in at least 17 years, which is as far back as I have records. Nothing you can do about that…. it was the perfect candidate for this strategy, but even “perfect” is no guarantee. I will likely close put side today and not risk early assignment. (bought yesterday for .91)

$FFIV jumped around the center strike in the morning but I got no fill. Now looking for it to recover. (bought yesterday for .81)

Not seeing any great candidates for dub cals today. Maybe $SBUX. Looking at a low risk #IronButterfly on $AMZN.

SPX 1-dte and final trades

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX April 1st 2790/2770 put spreads for .45. This is a roll-up from the puts closed this morning. I’m leaving the 2855/2875 call spread in place.

Expiring: March 29th 2770/2790-2845/2860 condors, sold this morning for 1.10.

#Earnings $CCL #IronButterfly from Monday a flop… exercising for loss of 1.25 on the sale for 2.25.

CCL earnings trade and analysis

#Earnings — I’m selling the CCL Mar 29th 53/56.5/60 #IronButterfly. Trying for 2.30, but will likely have to go lower. Not a big mover… its only large move was in December during the Christmas dive.

$CCL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 20, 2018 BO -9.48% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 27, 2018 BO -4.83%
June 25, 2018 BO -7.85%
March 22, 2018 BO -1.28%
Dec. 19, 2017 BO +2.29%
Sept. 26, 2017 BO +2.86%
June 22, 2017 BO -1.11%
March 28, 2017 BO +0.66%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +2.27%
Sept. 26, 2016 BO -1.67%
June 28, 2016 BO +0.20%
March 30, 2016 BO +5.49% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias -1.04%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 56.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.53 to 59.48
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 54.62 to 58.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 51.14 to 61.86
Based on UP max only (+5.5%): 59.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

EW closed, and remaining earnings trades

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Sold to close $EW Feb01/Feb08 170 dbl cals for 3.25 (avg price). Bought yesterday for 1.57.

#IronButterfly $NOW expiring at max loss of .65.
#IronCondor $AMZN expiring at full profit, sold yesterday for 2.00.
#LongStraddle $EBAY straddle bought for 2.23 on Tuesday. It had a subtle move, so I played the swings and managed to sell for 1.168. Even when long straddles miss, they aren’t too bad provided you have a few days and some swings.

NOW iron butterfly

#Earnings #IronButterfly

Sold to open $NOW Feb 1st 185/190/195 iron butterflys for 4.35. Max risk .65. As I reported below, this one has been more of a minor mover in recent years, so seeing if it can maintain its calm. If not, max loss is tolerable.