YELP earnings analysis

#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 9, 2019 AC -14.37%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -0.70%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65% Biggest UP
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66%
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35%
Biggest DOWN
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +9.94%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +12.83%

Avg (+ or -) 14.39%
Bias -1.54%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 34.10 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 29.64 to 38.56
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 29.19 to 39.01
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 24.67 to 43.53
Based on DOWN max only (-26.6%): 25.03

Open to requests for other symbols.

#longstraddle, #longstrangle

SNAP closed

#Earnings Closed final $SNAP calls for 3.25. #LongStraddle bought for 2.06 on Tuesday.

Closing SNAP

#Earnings Sold the first $SNAP long July 126th 14.5 calls for 2.25 and 2.50. #LongStraddle bought yesterday for 2.06.

SNAP earnings analysis

#Earnings $SNAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 9 quarters, representing its entire history.

April 23, 2019 AC -6.08%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC +22.01%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -10.15%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -6.78%
May 1, 2018 AC -21.93% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2018 AC +47.58% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -14.61%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -14.08%
May 10, 2017 AC -21.45%

Avg (+ or -) 18.30%
Bias -2.83%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 14.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 12.36 to 16.64
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 9 quarters: 11.85 to 17.15
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 9 Q’s (47.6%): 7.60 to 21.40
Based on DOWN Max only (-21.9%): 11.32

Open to requests for other symbols.

#longstraddle

UBER roll

#Earnings #StrangleRoll #ThatDidntTakeLong

Sold this strangle Friday as a roll from losing #LongStraddle. Already breached, so rolling. Fortunately, the ATM options are not much more than the strangle sold for.

BTC $UBER June 14th 37/43 #ShortStrangle for 1.40. Sold for 1.00 on Friday.
STO $UBER June 21st 40/46 #ShortStrangle for 1.05

UBER bad

#Earnings So much for my speculative play of a #LongStraddle. Seem like the stock really likes 40. Nonetheless it did bounce around today but was unable to sell at the best times because other commitments had me running around the house and town too much.

Sold $UBER 40 straddle for .45. Bought yesterday for 3.15
#Rolling: Sold $UBER Jun 14th 37/43 #ShortStrangle for 1.00. See if I can work that three times and get back the losses.

That loss erases my decent win on $ANF straddle, leaving me flat for the week.

Also, Sold to close $DG call calendar for .10. Bought #DoubleCalendar for .39 on Wednesday. Long 118 put as lottery ticket for next week.

UBER straddle

#Earnings This is speculative because $UBER has not previously posted earnings, but my guess is this stock will move more than $3.00 (7.5%) on earnings. $LYFT moved over 10% on its first report.

So I’m buying a #LongStraddle. I’m going to try to leg in, which is often a mistake for me, but trying any way.

Just now bought $UBER May 31st 40 call for 1.45.
Order in to buy 40 put for 1.50, banking that stock will rise a bit from here. If not, I’ll buy the 39.5 put instead.