SKX strangle

Earnings #LongStrangle
Was planning for a #LongStraddle but since price is between strikes and stock has bullish bias on earnings,

Bought $SKX 35/35.5 strangle for 4.15. Need a 12.5% move in either direction to breakeven. Avg move on stock has been 16.2%.

AXP dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $AXP Apr18/Apr26 112 #DoubleCalendar for .48.

Also looking at a Dub Cal for $HON and a #LongStraddle on $SKX

ANF closing, DLTR not

#Earnings #LongStraddle Sold to close half of $ANF March 8th 21.5 calls for 3.40 and 3.80. #LongStraddle bought yesterday for 2.94. Holding the rest to see how high we can go.

DLTR 95 #DoubleCalendar, front week premium not going down much yet so sitting on this one for awhile.

ANF straddle, DLTR maybe

#Earnings #LongStraddle Bought $ANF March 8th 21.5 straddle for 2.94. Avg Move on earnings: 14.7%. I need a 13.7% move to breakeven.

Also trying for a #DoubleCalendar on $DLTR. Only if I can get filled for .40. Low probability, since it moves decently, but low risk worth the shot.

ANF earnings analysis

#Earnings — $ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 29, 2018 BO +20.91%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO +11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +23.90% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +17.06%
May 25, 2017 BO +8.99%
March 2, 2017 BO +13.94%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO -13.76%
Aug. 30, 2016 BO -20.30% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 BO -15.66%
March 2, 2016 BO +3.64%

Avg (+ or -) 14.66%
Bias 2.06%, Positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 21.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 18.76 to 24.24
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 18.35 to 24.65
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.9%): 16.36 to 26.64

Open to requests for other symbols.

#longstraddle

Final Trades and Expirations

#Earnings Sold to close $UAA Feb 15th 21 calls for .16. This was a sad one; bought the #LongStraddle for 2.50… the swings this week afforded opportunities to cut the loss to less than half, but my orders barely missed getting filled again and again. So although I did sell a few for 1.60, the stock ended the week right at my strike… not good for a long straddle!

#CoveredCalls #Assignment $PVTL stock called away via 18 and 19 calls. This was a September earnings trade, was assigned at 22.50 and through multiple rounds of covered calls I’m exiting at about break-even.

#DoubleCalendar Taking assignment of $NTAP stock, cost basis 64.79.

#IronCondor Closed $DECK short 145 calls for 1.30. Was able to exit some at .50 and .20, so overall this trade will be a small winner or a small loser across my accounts. Condor sold for .86 on Jan 31st.

YELP earnings analysis

#Earnings — $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65%
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66% Biggest UP
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +9.94%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +12.83%
May 5, 2016 AC +23.71%
Feb. 8, 2016 AC -2.30%

Avg (+ or -) 15.30%
Bias 1.50%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 38.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 33.76 to 43.74
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 32.82 to 44.68
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 28.03 to 49.47

#longstraddle