Final Trades and Expirations

#Earnings Sold to close $UAA Feb 15th 21 calls for .16. This was a sad one; bought the #LongStraddle for 2.50… the swings this week afforded opportunities to cut the loss to less than half, but my orders barely missed getting filled again and again. So although I did sell a few for 1.60, the stock ended the week right at my strike… not good for a long straddle!

#CoveredCalls #Assignment $PVTL stock called away via 18 and 19 calls. This was a September earnings trade, was assigned at 22.50 and through multiple rounds of covered calls I’m exiting at about break-even.

#DoubleCalendar Taking assignment of $NTAP stock, cost basis 64.79.

#IronCondor Closed $DECK short 145 calls for 1.30. Was able to exit some at .50 and .20, so overall this trade will be a small winner or a small loser across my accounts. Condor sold for .86 on Jan 31st.

YELP earnings analysis

#Earnings — $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65%
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66% Biggest UP
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +9.94%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +12.83%
May 5, 2016 AC +23.71%
Feb. 8, 2016 AC -2.30%

Avg (+ or -) 15.30%
Bias 1.50%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 38.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 33.76 to 43.74
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 32.82 to 44.68
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 28.03 to 49.47

#longstraddle

Closing SHOP

#Earnings Sold to close partial $SHOP Feb15/Feb22 175 #DoubleCalendar for 2.10. Bought yesterday for 1.60. Price moving toward strike so trying to close the rest for higher credit.

$TAP Dbl Cal is tapping out. Will need to see if a bounce comes into Friday. This was cheap (.34), so no biggie.

$UAA no gap but drifting higher so this may turn out well. #LongStraddle bought for 2.50.

Earnings trades today

#Earnings

Bought $UAA Feb 15th 21 #LongStraddle for 2.50. Need a 11.9% move. Average has been 16.1%.

Bought $TAP Feb15/Feb22 65 #DoubleCalendar for .34. Super cheap!

Looking at a calendar for $SHOP, also cheap.

UAA earnings analysis

#Earnings — $UAA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters. NOTE: symbol UAA only lists history starting 1/31/17. The data before that date is for symbol $UA (below the line).

Tue 10/30/2018 BO +30.29% Biggest UP
Thu 07/26/2018 BO -4.60%
Tue 05/01/2018 BO -2.25%
Tue 02/13/2018 BO +22.00%
Tue 10/31/2017 BO -29.25% Biggest DOWN
Tue 08/01/2017 BO -8.14%
Thu 04/27/2017 BO +7.40%
Tue 01/31/2017 BO -28.47%
——————————
Tue 10/25/2016 BO -21.24%
Tue 07/26/2016 BO -9.47%
Thu 04/21/2016 BO +6.00%
Thu 01/28/2016 BO +24.13%

Avg (+ or -) 16.10%
Bias -1.13%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 21.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 18.26 to 23.74
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 17.62 to 24.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (30.3%): 14.64 to 27.36

#longstraddle

SKX earnings analysis

#Earnings $SKX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.

Oct. 18, 2018 AC +13.78%
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +41.44% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC +0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%
April 21, 2016 AC +6.26%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC +3.93%

Avg (+ or -) 15.26%
Bias 0.23%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 27.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 23.69 to 31.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 23.30 to 31.70
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (41.4%): 16.10 to 38.90

Open for requests on other symbols.

#longstraddle

FEYE earnings

#Earnings #LongStraddle Sold to close $FEYE Feb 8th 18.5 puts for 2.05 and 2.40. Still holding a few more. Straddles bought yesterday for 1.81. Smaller return that usual, but I’ll take it.

Working on $MPC exit. Also will not be as good as CMI was yesterday, but still a winner.