#SPX1dte I’m calling this my first sucky trade of 2023. I tempted fate and erased almost all profit from the week.

BTC $SPX March 31st 4100 call for 4.00. Condors sold yesterday for 1.00.

Now that I’ve done that, there’s an excellent chance it will keep falling and make my move unnecessary.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX April 3rd 4005/4025-4160/4180 condors for 1.45, SPX at 4096, deltas -.07, +.06

Sold a bit early to grab so extra premium… fill on the spike up to 4096.

I’m still carrying my 4100 call short for today… kinda thought I’d be safe but now I need to get out!

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 31st 3960/3980-4100/4120 condors for 1.00, SPX at 4050, deltas -.06 +.06

March 30th 3975/3995-4085/4105 condors, sold this morning for 1.25

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 30th (same day) 3975/3995-4085/4105 condors for 1.25, deltas -.07 +.07

Pretty tight range, only 90 points between shorts, but lower premium and volatility should mean lower ATR

#SPX1dte I’m going to wait until morning for my condor since I’m only seeing about 1.10 in premium for a spread that’s only 120 wide. After today, we could look at either a pullback or another rally tomorrow.

Expiring: $SPX March 29th 3945/3965-4045/4065 condors, sold this morning for 1.30. Loss on day -.30

#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX same day March 29th 3945/3965-4045/4065 condors for 1.30, SPX at 4013, deltas -.09 +.07

This is a hedge, partial roll, what ever you wanna call it. I will take a loss on the call side of today’s spread (barring sharp drop) so adding a new spread to recoup some of expected loss.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 29th 3880/3900-4020/4040 condors for 1.20, SPX at 3965, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX March 28th 3915/3895 put spreads for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.40.

My stop was NOT hit, but taking risk off after seeing $VIX spike in last hour.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 28th 3895/3915-4045/4065 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3985, deltas -.06 +.06

The 6 deltas are in tightest range in a while, only 130 points apart.

Expiring: March 27th 3860/3880-4040/4060 condors, sold Friday for 1.40

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 27th 3860/3880-4040/4060 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3970, deltas -.06 +.06

This week’s profit, +4.45

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX 3845/3825 put spreads for .15. Condors sold yesterday for 1.40.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 24th 3825/3845-4035/4055 condors for 1.40, SPX 3954, deltas -.06 +.06.

In time it took me to type this, deltas dropped to -.05 +.05

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX March 23rd 4025/4045 call spreads for 1.75. Condors sold yesterday for 1.25. Took a small loss in light of fact yesterday’s high was 4039 and with current volatility we could see rally to that level easily.

After that, still tracking at +3.60 for the week, so above my 3.00 goal.

#SPX1dte Sold right after closing bell, $SPX March 23rd 3825/3845-4025/4045 condors for 1.25, deltas -.06 +.06

Expired: March 22nd 3900/3920-4085/4105 condors, sold just over an hour earlier for 1.15

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 22nd 3900/3920-4085/4105 condors for 1.15. Sold just after Powell started taking questions.

#SPX1dte Not placing a trade for tomorrow due to Fed announcement. Looking for yesterday’s to expire but keeping a close eye as only 15 points from call strike and we are looking bullish.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 21st 3845/3865-4010/4030 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3948, deltas -.06 +.06

Expiring: March 20th 3780/3800-4010/4030 condors, sold Friday for 1.75

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX March 20th 3800/3780 put spreads for .05. Condors sold for 1.75 on Friday. Looking for calls to expire.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 20th 3780/3800-4010/4030 condors for 1.75, with SPX at 3916, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX 3860/3840 put spreads for .15. Taking off risk to avoid any Friday craziness.

That ends week with +2.75 profit. My Monday bear put spread died, but did act as a hedge against a collapse. I rarely am able to pick the right entry for long bear trades.

#SPX1dte At 12:46 PDT, sold to open $SPX March 17th 3840/3860-4035/4055 condors for 1.20.

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX March 16th 3970/3990 call spreads for 1.50. With my .05 closure of puts that makes the day breakeven, less commissions.

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Mar 16th 3765/3745 put spreads for .05. Condors sold for 1.55 yesterday. This is for safety in volatile market.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 16th 3745/3765-3970/3990 condors for 1.55, SPX at 3877, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX March 15th 3800/3780 put spreads for .30. Condors sold yesterday for 1.40. My stop was NOT hit but I’m closing for protection in light of a volatile week.

#SPX5dte My ill-timed long put spread (bought Monday for 2.00) has turned out to be a downside hedge for the week on condor trades. But that power will drain a lot tomorrow as Friday expiration nears.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 3780/3800-3980/3900 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3896, deltas -.06 +.05

Expiring: March 14th 3775/3795-3970/3990 condors, sold this morning for 1.40.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 14th 3775/3795-3970/3990 condors for 1.40, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX1dte In last minute before closing bell, sold to open $SPX March 13th 3730/3750-3955/3975, SPX at 3861, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX 3850/3830 put spreads for 3.25. Condors sold an hour earlier for 1.50.

That makes for my worst week of 2023 so far, but still managed a profit of +1.35.

#SPX1dte SAME DAY Sold to Open $SPX March 10th 3830/3850-4010/4030 condors for 1.50, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX1dte Today is the first day in 2023 where my stop-out was necessary and saved money. Before today, all of my stop-outs had cost me 14.17, and all were unnecessary. If I hadn’t stopped out on any of those days, my YTD profit would have jumped from +34.85 to +49.02. That’s a huge difference. But today, we had 2023’s first strong breach of my short strike, and that +14.17 “woulda-coulda” number plummets to be -0.36.

So the “no-stop” alternative is now basically dead even with my actual profit.

Tomorrow, I will look for a same-day trade after the jobs number is released.

#SPX1dte My stop is hit and I’m not risking this today. Looking for an exit. Behavior of $VIX and $TICK charts signal the possibility of a real flush out here. Watching closely for an exit on bounce.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 9th 3915/3935-4045/4065 condors for 1.45, SPX at 3991, deltas -.07 +.07

Went with 7 delta rather than usual 6; looking for a quiet day ahead of Friday morning’s job numbers.

Expired: March 8th 3905/3925-4050/4070 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 8th 3905/3925-4050/4070 condors for 1.20, SPX at 3990, deltas -.06 +.06.

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX March 7th 3975/3955 put spreads for .50. Condors sold yesterday for 1.80.

Stop was hit at the open. As part of my new approach I did not seek to close it quickly, but waited for a cheap exit. I got pretty good premium yesterday due to aggressive deltas and the impending Powell comments. So my profit is 1.30, which is around normal.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 7th 3955/3975-4120/4140 condors for 1.80, SPX at 4050, deltas -.07 +.07

Expiring: March 6th 3960/3980-4105/4125 condors, sold Friday for 1.30.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 6th 3960/3980-4105/4125 condors for 1.30, SPX at 4040, deltas -.08 +.05. Purposefully leaning a bit bullish, since some follow through from today’s rally may start the week.

As usual, the stop out ended up not being necessary, but short strike was breached so I’m happy with decision. Also managed to sell the long 4075 calls for .10, reducing my loss on the trade to be only -.50.

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX March 3rd 4045 call for 2.00. Taking my first stop in just over 3 weeks. This is the kind of day that can sneak up and kill a trade. A Friday with a slow climb upwards. Odds are we have already topped out for the day, but chances of a follow through are good enough to take the small loss and retain a nicely profitable week of +4.30.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 3rd 3880/3910-4045/4075 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3979, deltas -.06 +.05

The wings on this are accidentally 30-points wide, so got a bit more premium with a bit more risk.

#SPX1dte Not placing a trade for Friday since we have Jobs numbers released an hour before the open. I will consider a trade in that hour after the release.

Expiring: $SPX Mar 2nd 3865/3885-4015/4025 condors, sold yesterday for 1.25

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 2nd 3865/3885-4015/4025 condors for 1.25, SPX at 3950, delta -.06 +.05

Expiring: March 1st 3890/3910-4035/4055 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 1st 3890/3910-4035/4055 condors for 1.15, SPX at 3973, deltas -.06 +.05

Expired: Feb 28th 3890/3910-4040/4060 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15

#SPX1dte I was traveling Friday so I couldn’t post, but as usually happens when I travel, my trade was threatened. It was the first sharp threat I’ve had since I loosened my stop rules. I was able to keep an eye on it and even though we got within 4 points of my short put, I hung on and expired worthless.

Expired: $SPX Feb 24th 3920/3940-4090/4110 condors, sold Thursday for 1.30.

Then, Sold to Open $SPX Feb 27th 3860/3880-4030/4050 condors for 1.35.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 24th 3920/3940-4090/4110 condors for 1.30, SPX at 4019, deltas -.06 +.06

Expiring: Feb 23rd 3885/3905-4050/4070 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 23rd 3885/3905-4050/4070 condors for 1.20, SPX at 3981, deltas -.05 +.06

Expiring: Feb 22nd 3905/3925-4070/4090 condors, sold yesterday for 1.40.

#SPX1dte Twelve minutes after closing bell, Sold to Open $SPX Feb 22nd 3905/3925-4070/4090 condors for 1.40.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 17th 3965/3985-4165/4185 condors for 1.30.

Expired: Feb 16th 4045/4065-4200/4220 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 10th 3980/4000-4155/4175 condors for 1.15.

Stopped out this morning when we opened at the day’s highs and my stop level was hit. Totally unnecessary. In fact, 100% of my stop-outs so far this year were not necessary. Had I gone with no-stop policy, my profits would be about 75% higher. Results from second half of last year are similar.

This year I have made a total of 16.10, but I have paid 12.75 for unnecessary exits.
(I trade one contract per 15K in each account. So 16.10 amounts to a 5.4%- 10.7% return on each account in 40 calendar days)

So I’m going to start a more relaxed approach. If stop level is hit (which is when SPX comes within the day’s expected move of either of my short strikes) I will watch closely and look for a chance to exit cheaply. If that chance does not come or I miss it, I will let it ride. If my strikes are breached, I will watch more closely and consider exiting for a loss.

#SPX1dte Market soared on Powell’s remarks. It hit my stop but then retreated pretty quickly so I was able to wait for a cheap close.

Bought to close $SPX Feb 7th 4190/4210 call spreads for .45. Condors sold yesterday for 1.60.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 7th 4000/4020-4190/4210 condors for 1.60, SPX at 4106, deltas -.06 +.06.