Had not looked at the market until after lunch, that’s what a true short squeeze looks like 🙂
About time we had a green day
Had not looked at the market until after lunch, that’s what a true short squeeze looks like 🙂
About time we had a green day
#optionsexpiration and actually these are for next week, I rolled everything today.
Sorry I have not had time to post for anyone that was following trades. I will do a better job of at least a weekly update. That is how I trade. 95% of my trades are on Thurs. so a weekly update should keep things up to date.
/ES 62 DTE 2610/2605 back ratio has made a few $. It’s real purpose is to guard against a 2/6/18 or 8/24/15 event. Hope I don’t need it but would get a lot of cash then. However like an insurance policy I expect to lose on this.
LABU 45 cc at 44.25 cb and 40 cc at 37.13 and another batch of 40 cc at 38.42
TNA 60 cc at 59.69
TQQQ 63 cc at 62.15
AMAT 22 DTE 42 CC at 41.04. Assigned off a 43 put but had some credits as a cushion
EOG 92.5/90 rolled down to 87.5/87.5 for a little debit. Cost basis 15.44 but because I had made some on the longs it put some cash back in the account.
GILD 65/65 rolled next week for 0.29 credit. Cost basis 5.91. Should not be too much longer for a free trade.
LNG 67.5/67.5 rolled for 0.34 credit. Cost basis 9.99 down from 15.57 at onset only 4 weeks ago.
XBI 80/80/85 rolled for 0.70 and cb 5.57
XBI 80/85 cb 12.50. This is a new batch we are doing live as an experiment. Avg. about 4% cost reduction per week. With monthlies it is larger about 6-8% but the theta decay is slower. 6% per month is 96% per year.
GILD 65/65 rolled for 0.28 for cb of 3.78. Freebie soon I hope 🙂 but this is also an experiment that will be taken all the way to expiration in 2021.
GILD 65/65 rolled for 0.28 at 6.45. Same as above but this is tracking the compounded addition of contracts as the rolls spit off cash.
IBB 103.5 rolled down to 102/102/102.5 for total credit of 0.84. This has been recovered all the way from 107/109 strikes. Shows the flexibility of the #jadelizard as a tactic for adjustments.
IWM rolled down from 150 to 149/149/149.5. Reduced debit from 2.11 to 1.63 as I have recovered this from 155/157 strikes. I gave back a little credit to reduce margin.
SQ 63.5/63.5/64 rolled for total credit of 2.19. Looks like it found a bottom.
XBI 81.5 rolled down to 81/81/81.5 for total credit of 2.35.
LNG 64/64/64.5 rolled down from 66 for 1.68 total credit.
Once I can close a few of these, hopefully next week, will start some 21 DTE #lizardpies and create ladders. Some of them will be skewed to downside to just have steady income with every expiration and let them expire each week. Add new ones every Monday or Thurs.
Stay nimble, I suspect there is more volatility ahead but take advantage of the increased premiums 🙂
Here is an example of a 22 DTE #lizardpies I am looking at.
7 points of downside protection. No risk to upside. Income over 3 weeks, can probably close early for 50% or more profit.
So my 5 week full time trading experiment has been over for about 4 weeks now. Not trying to brag, but had my second best trading month ever even in a very choppy market. Over 9% returns for the month on my total portfolio and now up 38% for the total portfolio for the year as of this last weekend. Several losing trades in there as well.
So ran a few experiments and noticed a few things about the market in live time.
1. While tastytrade has found that the best time to sell options is 45 DTE, it takes a long time for the decay to occur, especially if the ticker moves. I found that there is a huge theta crush from 21 DTE to 14 or 7 DTE for OTM options. You will be closer to the money than 45 DTE, but the theta decay is huge. I may have posted this already and if so sorry for the repeat, but I was in EXPE and several other trades. Had opened both 45 DTE and 21 DTE. It took 3-5 weeks for the 45 DTE options to crush 50% but only 10 days for the 21 DTE to do the same. Recycle capital faster, make more $.
2. #spycraft version 5.1 or so idea. The weekly income is awesome, but then the 5 STD moves crush all your profits and then some. I have been setting up hedges using /ES and SPX and keeping them on almost all the time now. On the big moves down, you can roll for cash and reset the hedge to new levels. You can set up a longer term hedge 90 DTE or so to cover you max loss basically scratching the trade. It will cost more but will prevent the losses. I have not figured out the ideal ratios yet but stay tuned. Plan is to sell 21 day IC or credit spreads, use the cash to buy a few hedges, then roll weekly and keep cash coming in to reduce the hedge cost basis to zero. Other option is convert the spreads to ratios or butterflies. The butterfly seems to limit the losses faster and then if whipsaw no additional losses.
3. Keeping hedges on allows you to be a much more aggressive trader. If the SPX goes to zero, you hedges will be worth much more than your portfolio was. Because of the volatility expansion you can also buy cheaper options than you thought. I have been planning for a 10% drop as my starting point. Then figure out which option would be worth 10k at a 10% drop. Then you can figure out how many contracts to cover your portfolio. Best to do when the VIX is 12. The black swam events seem to be occurring on average 2 times a year since 2015 but are only supposed to happen once every 5 years. I will always have a hedge and will pay for it by selling options or rolling profits from the hedges.
4. #jadelizard and #lizardpies are hugely adaptable. You can often move 3-5 strikes and still take in a credit. You can also skew it to up or downside and really increase returns. If runs through the upper strikes just let it all expire, take the cash, and reset the next week. If it moves down, reset the straddle ATM.
5. #pietrades are still the cash machine but can convert to jade lizards or LEAPs if it really implodes on you.
6. Staying out of earnings trades has been helpful to my equity curve.
7. Staring at 1 and 5 minute charts is mind numbing. Congratulations to those of you that can do it and trade directionally. I can’t and have a lot more fun things to do. I will stay mostly non directional with a slight directional bias and enjoy life and my free time. Most of my trading is on my free time so the less I have to spend trading is more time to do other things. I personally will not take any trade on anything shorter than a 15 or 30 minute chart but my real triggers are now hourly or 4 hour for the weekly trades.
8. Spreads can save your bacon in really volatile markets.
9. Keep enough cash on the sidelines for adjustments and opportunities.
10. There is always another trade or opportunity. If you feel pressured to make a trade, it is probably a bad idea. The less emotional you can be also the better the adjustments/recovery you can make. Think before hitting the confirm and send button and have a plan and stick to the plan if the trade goes against you. Be mechanical in your trading and adjusting. It may seem boring to some but the reason I trade is to make money. I want adrenaline I will go kiteboard or ski and hopefully not break my face again.
11. Having a group to trade with is like extra eyes on the market. Everyone sees different opportunities. Thanks for sharing 🙂
12. Being a specialist pays off. I am a family practitioner but specialists make more in the medical field. Also true in the market. Have a handful of tickers you know, watch and trade. They all have their own personalities and once you know them it is easier to trade them. I think once you have above 10-12 names you are probably trying to do too much. Trading the same tickers over and over has improved my consistency and results. Sure, play the occasional lottery ticket but to pay the bills stick with what you know. And also make sure your tickers are diversified.
Cheers, Chris 🙂
/ES hedges are working well, just wish I had more of them. May add some more but looks like have found a bottom at least for today. Not being political but the tweeter in chief really needs to shut up and realize tariffs are bad for business.
Sorry I have been quiet the last few weeks. After recovering and getting back to work I have barely had time to eat. We had to move 400 patients while I was out and it really messed up the schedule. Hope to be caught up in the next few weeks. Also have not found a good way to separate the service trades from my other trades as they are often similar.
Anyway, I have been adjusting jade lizards and have found them to be easier to roll than just a put or a call. I was able to roll IBB down on Thurs. from 107.5 to 103.5 for a 0.01 debit. 4 points of extra downside for 1 penny, I will take it. Because I am selling the straddle the credit can often offset the drop.
So anyway here are my current positions. All will need adjusting this week. If we keep falling will convert some to LEAPs/ #fuzzy.
90% of these expire this week.
/es back ratio hedge, 79 DTE 2610 short 1 and long 2 2605 for 21.50 or $1075 for every 3 contracts. Up nicely 🙂 and I may roll down to take out some cash.
GILD 65/65 at cost basis of 6.79, 4.68, and 7.35. Keep working to zero cost basis.
IBB 103.5/103.5/104 jade lizard rolled down Thurs from 107.5 for 1 cent debit. CB 103.51. Will roll or convert
iWM 155.5 converted to 155.5/155/5/156 jade lizard for 0.30 credit. CB 154.18 will need roll
LNG 67.5 put was converted to #fuzzy for cost basis of 10.33
SQ 73.5/73.5/74 cb 1.27. Needs rolling.
XBI 84/84/84.5 jade lizard for 1.49 credit. Cb 82.51
LABU 50 cc for cb 46
QQQ 185/188 for 3.26
XBI 80/85 for 7.57 and 13.81
LNG 65.5/65.5/66 for 1.44 credit this morning
TNA 64 cc for 61.97
TQQQ 66 cc for 63.94
AMAT 43 puts for 1.03 cb 41.97
Obviously most of these will need rolling or adjusting toward the end of the week. We keep falling I will convert most to LEAPs on the put side.
Appears tweets on tariffs are again driving volatility so to potentially take advantage of that set up /ES hedge.
STO the 89 DTE (July end of month/EOM) 2610 put and BTO 2605 puts in a 2:1 back ratio so long 2 2605 for every 2610 short. Each one will give about a 4-5k profit if we drop 10% and only cost $21.50 or $1075 total.
Hope I don’t need the lottery ticket and expect to lose on this but if we tank at least something will go up.
Small accounts, small size, IRAs. Don’t bet the farm on these types of trades.
LABU 5/3 49 put STO for 1.05
LABU 5/3 50 cc for cost basis of 48.30.
TQQQ 5/3 66 cc for cost of 65.03.
Will let call out, assign, or expire.
Hopefully the bottom does not fall out in 3-4 days, if so will roll as long as needed. All of these are 78.4% + annualized or better.
Back at work so have not had time to update. Managed to get a few trades in. This is update of current positions.
Tues. STO IBB 107.5 5/3 put for 1 right before the medicare for all gave all the biotechs and insurers a haircut. Will be adjusting this for a few weeks.
IWM STO the 5/10 152 put for 1.21 today. May convert to #lizardpies depending on market moves
LNG 67.5 put was rolled down last week for cost basis of 66.8. Need to adjust and exp. 5/3.
AMAT 43.5 CC expires next week. cb 42.55
ERX 23 cc expires today/assigned and cb 21.81
LNG batch 2 same as above but cb 67.15. Had a better fill.
TNA expiring today 65 put rolled to next week 64 for 0.48 credit. Cb 63.52 if assigned but will manage
TQQQ 53.5 cc expires next week. 56.75 cb. I tried to roll it but the MM are being greedy bloodsuckers so will take the minor loss and use the money on something else.
AMAT 41.5 put expiring today rolled to 42.5 next week for 0.42 credit. Cb 42.08.
EXPE 113/130/131 for 5/10 credit now 3.84. Hope to close next week.
SQ 74/78/78.5 adjusted Tues for additional credit. 72.81 cost basis
GILD 65/65 cb down to 7.34
GILD batch 2 65/65 cb at 5.23
XBI 80/80/85 rolled today. Cb 8.96
I am trying a 21 DTE OTM experiment as I noticed while I was off OTM options usually crushed by over half from 21 DTE down to 14 DTE if they stayed OTM. Percentage wise much better than 45 DTE and really not to much closer to the money on strikes. Maybe 1-3. Will keep posted but I am hoping there will be a lot less adjusting. Adjustments just decrease profits. Will keep you posted.
Hoppy Easter everyone 🙂