EXPE 125/126 7 DTE rolled out 21 for 0.40 credit. Cb 12.78
EOG 110/110 7 DTE rolled our 28 DTE for 0.55 credit. Cb 11.84
MU 40/40 7 DTE to 21 DTE for 0.40 credit. Cb 13.91
WDC 40/42.5 7 DTE to 28 DTE for 0.51 credit. Cb 19.58.
GILD 67.5/69 1 DTE to 21 DTE for 0.76. Cb 9.59
Still have 109 weeks to manage these and some have already been reduced 25-50% from original cost. For pure ROI looks like #fuzzy may win especially when volatility kicks up.
LNG 62 cc 1 DTE rolled out 7 DTE for 0.74 credit. Cb 58.84
All told $1860 of credits for the week. Another week or 2 will have enough cash to start the #lizardpies test using 1-2 contracts. After 8 weeks of being flat finally bringing in cash again to use for new trades.
I plan to try to take a few of the #fuzzy all the way to expiration just to see what kind of actual/real world returns you can get over a year. Currently looks around 100% annualized. With the exception of WDC. may end up closing that as soon as I can break even especially if it keeps dropping.
Have a great weekend 🙂
GILD 70/70 3 DTE rolled out to 17 DTE for 0.53 credit. CB now 9.78 and 109 more weeks to go. This one already up 1.01 per contract if I closed it now.
WDC #doubledip #fuzzy
Rolled the 11 DTE 40/47 down to 11 DTE 42.5 for 1.04 credit. cb now 20.09. 109 weeks to manage but this one has been such a dog lately I will probably scratch it once I can break even.
Why I sell options-last 2 days whipsaws, dow down 800 points yesterday, recovered. Today down another 485. All of my tickers are down but because of theta decay my core account is up. Wrong on direction but still making money.
I salute those of you that successfully trade directionally but these are the times that make me realize that being the house always wins in the long run!
However, some stability would be nice…….have a great weekend.
Vix finally moving up quickly, possible bottom, there is a lot of volume here over the last 30 days on volume profile. Who knows but if it breaks this level probably a lot more downside.
Going for bike, should know when I get back.
Trying to get back to selling weeklies, better returns in real time confirmed by my account balances. Taking a credit of 0.4 every week works out to $2080 profits for 52 weeks vs. 1.2 x 12 months only works out to $1440 or 37% better return. So anyway, even with the gamma risk the decay is much faster on weeklies and the #pietrades concept works so now I am trying to apply it to all other trades, #fuzzy, #coveredcalls etc. to increase income. Last 8-12 weeks had gone out 21-45 DTE on expirations to help deal with the volatility. Trying to pull everything back to weekly now. I know TT shows 45 DTE works best but not according to my account balances.
MU 40/40 8 DTE rolled out to 15 DTE for 0.53 credit. Cb now 14.16
WDC 40/47 8 DTE rolled out to 15 DTE for 0.27 credit. Cb 21.13
GILD 67.5/69 1 DTE rolled out to 8 DTE for 0.61 credit. Cb 10.35. I really wanted to let some more time decay but doubt I will have time to trade tomorrow. Starting to see flu so the office is really busy. Get your flu shots if you have not had them yet.
Added 1 more at lunch time, EOG 110/110 8 DTE rolled out 15 DTE for 0.30. Cb 12.39
Still have 110 weeks to manage all these. The #fuzzy trades handle the volatility better than anything else I have on at the moment.
LNG 1 DTE rolled out to 8 DTE at 62 cc for 0.45 credit. Cb 59.58
Lots of expirations next week and week after. Should free ups some cash to try a live #lizardpies and maybe @elitethink short iron fly tactic, small lots on both.
Hope everyone is having a good week 🙂
Spy example with a 30 point spread. Based on math, the straddle is selling for 7.6 next Wed or 1 week and 4 x that would be 30 points. So here is an example on a 30 point wide iron fly.
Second graph shows an adjustment if it dropped to 262, now of course the prices would change but shows a flattening of the risk curve.
I know this is not what you are doing but just trying to get the basic math down.
So if the first graph is correct, at what point do you adjust?
Stop at 9.3 debit, then add next spread in same expiration or going out to next expiration? Obviously at this point one side would be winning.
This is kind of my idea with the #lizardpies, sell the straddle to make as much decay as possible, hedge the upside, cash secured on put side.
Yeah, post the live trades, I am interested in how it works live in the market 🙂