GILD 70/70 3 DTE rolled out to 17 DTE for 0.53 credit. CB now 9.78 and 109 more weeks to go. This one already up 1.01 per contract if I closed it now.
Why I sell options-last 2 days whipsaws, dow down 800 points yesterday, recovered. Today down another 485. All of my tickers are down but because of theta decay my core account is up. Wrong on direction but still making money.
I salute those of you that successfully trade directionally but these are the times that make me realize that being the house always wins in the long run!
However, some stability would be nice…….have a great weekend.
Vix finally moving up quickly, possible bottom, there is a lot of volume here over the last 30 days on volume profile. Who knows but if it breaks this level probably a lot more downside.
Going for bike, should know when I get back.
Trying to get back to selling weeklies, better returns in real time confirmed by my account balances. Taking a credit of 0.4 every week works out to $2080 profits for 52 weeks vs. 1.2 x 12 months only works out to $1440 or 37% better return. So anyway, even with the gamma risk the decay is much faster on weeklies and the #pietrades concept works so now I am trying to apply it to all other trades, #fuzzy, #coveredcalls etc. to increase income. Last 8-12 weeks had gone out 21-45 DTE on expirations to help deal with the volatility. Trying to pull everything back to weekly now. I know TT shows 45 DTE works best but not according to my account balances.
MU 40/40 8 DTE rolled out to 15 DTE for 0.53 credit. Cb now 14.16
WDC 40/47 8 DTE rolled out to 15 DTE for 0.27 credit. Cb 21.13
GILD 67.5/69 1 DTE rolled out to 8 DTE for 0.61 credit. Cb 10.35. I really wanted to let some more time decay but doubt I will have time to trade tomorrow. Starting to see flu so the office is really busy. Get your flu shots if you have not had them yet.
Added 1 more at lunch time, EOG 110/110 8 DTE rolled out 15 DTE for 0.30. Cb 12.39
Still have 110 weeks to manage all these. The #fuzzy trades handle the volatility better than anything else I have on at the moment.
LNG 1 DTE rolled out to 8 DTE at 62 cc for 0.45 credit. Cb 59.58
Hope everyone is having a good week 🙂
Spy example with a 30 point spread. Based on math, the straddle is selling for 7.6 next Wed or 1 week and 4 x that would be 30 points. So here is an example on a 30 point wide iron fly.
Second graph shows an adjustment if it dropped to 262, now of course the prices would change but shows a flattening of the risk curve.
I know this is not what you are doing but just trying to get the basic math down.
So if the first graph is correct, at what point do you adjust?
Stop at 9.3 debit, then add next spread in same expiration or going out to next expiration? Obviously at this point one side would be winning.
This is kind of my idea with the #lizardpies, sell the straddle to make as much decay as possible, hedge the upside, cash secured on put side.
Yeah, post the live trades, I am interested in how it works live in the market 🙂
Maybe the leveraged products are not so good for options. We definitely saw that with SVXY. TT has done some new research.
Obviously the advantage is a lot of them are priced lower than SPY so can use in smaller accounts.
Also, finally had time to read the optionsellers.com debacle. No one will mange your own money better than you. I think everyone here knows that. I read their book, actually good but maybe naked strangles on futures not the best idea.
Figured with a quiet trading day would pass this along.