#earnings #rolling CHWY Sept. 10,…

#earnings #rolling CHWY

Sept. 10, sold a #jadelizard with long put protection, actually an iron condor, 55/59.50/62.50/64 for 2.13. Today sold the long put and rolled the short to Oct. 16.

#earnings CHWY #jadelizard with a…

#earnings CHWY #jadelizard with a long put

Sold Sept. 18, 55.50/59.50/62.50/64 for 2.13

Thanks for the data Jeff

#earnings #jadelizard NTAP Sold Sept….

#earnings #jadelizard NTAP

Sold Sept. 18, 38/42.50/43.50 jade lizard for 1.26

Thanks for the earnings data Jeff

#coveredcalls #jadelizard MRO WBA AMD…

#coveredcalls #jadelizard MRO WBA AMD

MRO sold Sept. 18, 6 call for .17
WBA sold Sept. 4, 41.50 call for .28
AMD sold Sept. 18, 73/90/91 for 1.11 #tastytradefollow modification

#jadelizard EWW Sold July 17,…

#jadelizard EWW

Sold July 17, 32/32/34 jade lizard for 2.31.

#tastytradefollow

#closing #earnings LOW May 19…

#closing #earnings LOW

May 19 sold #jadelizard for 2.59, bought today for 2.07
June 19, 105/119/121

#earnings RCL One last trade…

#earnings RCL

One last trade as we cruise into the close of the market

Sold a June 19, 31.50/43/45 #jadelizard for 2.16

#earnings LOW Sold June 19…

#earnings LOW #shortputs VFC

VFC sold May 29, 52.50 put for .70

LOW Sold June 19 105/119/121 #jadelizard for 2.59

#earnings #closing WMT KSS WMT…

#earnings #closing WMT KSS

WMT bought #jadelizard for 1.68, sold yesterday for 2.09
KSS bought #shortstraddle for 3.72, sold yesterday for 4.22

#earnings #jadelizard WMT Sold June…

#earnings #jadelizard WMT

Sold June 19, 116/128/130 jade lizard for 2.09

#ironcondor #jadelizard QQQ Sold April…

#ironcondor #jadelizard QQQ

Sold April 17, 167/177/205/207 for 2.04
#tastytradefollow

#jadelizard AAL Sold May 15,…

#jadelizard AAL #calendar SPY

AAL Sold May 15, short 16 call/long 21 call/short 16 put for 5.25
SPY bought April 1/April 8 217 put calendar for 1.62
#tastytradefollow

#fallingknife Couldn’t resist selling MSFT…

#fallingknife
Couldn’t resist selling MSFT Apr 3 105 puts for 1.35….will be much higher in the morning it looks like.

#jadelizard

AMAT

On 11/15/19 STO AMAT Dec 6 62/63/62 #jadelizard @2.14….on 11/22/19 with the 62 Put DITM it was rolled out til Dec 13 for 0.24 credit….11/22 BTC 62/63 BeCS @0.05 debit….

12/11/19 assigned on the 62 Put with a cost basis of $59.68….

Six #coveredcalls have been sold reducing my cost basis to $56.84……With the stock closing today 2/14/20 at $66.85 I was called away at $66.00

LK

On the move up this AM taking 50%….BTC LK 21 FEB 44/44.5/28 #jadelizard @.55….STO 1/30 @1.13..

CMG Jade Lizard

#jadelizard #earnings
$CMG STO 2/7 820 put and STO 900/910 BECS at total credit of 9.75 Thanks for the data @jeffcp66

#jadelizard After FB’s drop opened…

#jadelizard After FB’s drop opened a JadeLizard 195/212.5/215 March13 for 3.31, can get better now

#earnings #closing #jadelizard SQ This…

#earnings #closing #jadelizard SQ

This goes back to Aug. 1, sold a jade lizard with a short 75 put, SQ was at about 81. It dropped into the 50s in Sept. and Oct.
Bought Feb. 21, 75 put for a gain after many trades over 6 months.
Now what to do with a disastrous TSLA position.

AAL

BTC AAL 24 JAN 20 29.5/30/27.5 jadelizard  @.45….STO 12/17 @.98

#jadelizard

EWZ

#jadelizard
STO EWZ 21 Feb 48/49/45 @1.25..

#coveredcalls I could not find…

#coveredcalls
I could not find a hashtag for Jade Lizards, so I’ll post here.
Please let me know if another hashtag would be more appropriate.

BTC SQ jade liz for .74 (17 Jan 62/66/67)
Was STO on Dec 23 for 1.43
This mornings upgrade will likely push it above the 66C

#jadelizard, #jadelizards-sometimes

#earnings #jadelizard FIVE Sold Dec….

#earnings #jadelizard FIVE

Sold Dec. 20, 105/118/120 for 2.50.

Thanks for the earnings data Jeff

#earnings #jadelizard M Sold Dec….

#earnings #jadelizard M

Sold Dec. 20, 15/15.50/16.50 for 1.15.
I’m long 105 shares from assignment a long time ago with a cost basis in the 30s. Will add a couple long puts to protect that horrid position.

#earnings HD #jadelizard #ironcondor This…

#earnings HD KSS

#jadelizard #ironcondor #shortstrangles

HD This is a jade lizard set up with a protective put, making it an iron condor
HD Sold Dec. 20, 210/225/240/242.50 for 2.60
KSS sold Dec. 20, 50/65 strangle for 1.65

Thanks for the data Jeff

EXPE earnings disaster

Rolled the 125 #jadelizard converted to a #fuzzy down to 95/95 strikes. Short option 15 DTE. When all cleared my cost basis is now 37.33. Need about 0.33 per week to break even and have until Jan 2022 to do it.

I am done with earnings. Too random and binary. 6 out of 9 of my earnings trades this year imploded even with some limited risk positions.

This one trade reduced my yearly profits by about 20% for the year even being only a 7% position in my portfolio.

Black swans are more common than the options price for.

Earnings blow up EXPE

Did not take my own advice, tried another earnings trade and now losing 6 out of 9. EXPE missed earnings by 0.60 and down over night by 17. Opened this morning down 31 or 22%. Had a #jadelizard at 125/144/145. Obviously the 125 are now way ITM.

Converted to a #fuzzy but will take a long time to make the loss back. Bought the 2022 125 put for 27.92 plus will use some more cash to roll my short put down and out.

Will let the call side expire worthless just to now spend any more money on the trade. This had been my biggest winner for the year. 1 night wiped out 11 months of gains on EXPE.

#earnings #jadelizard GS Jade lizard…

#earnings #jadelizard GS
Jade lizard with downside protection. Sold Nov. 15, 195 short put/205 short call/210 long call for 5.01. Bought Oct. 15, 195 put for .70.
Thanks for the data Jeff

#markettide Is showing a possible…

#markettide

Is showing a possible reversal on the 5 minute for /ES.

IBB STO the other side of the strangle at 103 c for 0.65 for 11/8 exp. Strangle is now the 101.5/103 for 3.45 credit total after some rolls. I am trying this as an experiment based on the TT research. Open initially at 43-45 DTE then manage at 21 DTE no matter what. Rolled the put side last week. They showed that beats all other management tactics for selling options so seeing how it works in real time with real money. 10 contracts so there is some skin in the game. So far so good, showing an $875 profit even with the puts being ITM. If it works will set up ladders on various ETFs. Single tickers would use #jadelizard to avoid upside risk.

#fuzzy
XBI rolled the short 80 put from 10 DTE out to 24 DTE for 0.42 credit. Cb 13.66.
LNG 60/65 rolled out to 45 DTE for 0.52 credit. Cb 7.12.

#earnings #closing COST Closed Nov….

#earnings #closing COST

Closed Nov. 15 #jadelizard and Oct. 18 long put spread from yesterday, made $70.

#earnings #jadelizard COST Sold Nov….

#earnings #jadelizard COST
Sold Nov. 15, 265/290/295 jade lizard for 5.67
bought Oct. 18, 250/260 long put spread for .55 as a downside hedge
Thanks for the data Jeff

I have been trying to…

I have been trying to move out of the leveraged ETFs but am stuck in a few for a while. Tastytrade did some research that shows trading options on the leveraged has much lower returns than just trading the regular ETF. Even accounting for contango/drift/ backwardization. My personal results show that as well. I know a lot of people here trade them but it may be more effective to not option trade them. As a hedge, sure they work but for options not so much. With the volatility over the last month or so, I have had trouble staying ahead of the fluctuations. The premiums are huge but the options are not priced for the movement for selling them.

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/trading-options-on-leveraged-etfs-11-26-2018
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/leveraged-etfs-not-consistent-performance-03-31-2016

#pietrades
With that said rolled
LABU 35 cc out 29 DTE for 1 and cost basis down to 33.80. My plan is to let call out if ITM and use it on something else.
TQQQ 60 CC rolled out to next week fr 0.98. Cb 57.52. Same as above.
LABU 35.5 cc rolled out 22 DTE and down to 35 for 0.90. Cb 33.49. Same
EXPE STO the 29 DTE 123 put for 2.05. Timing could not have been worse, market reversed 2 minute after that.

#fuzzy
XBI #fuzzy rolled 80/80 out to 22 DTE for 0.65 credit. Cb now 0.85. Still have until 2021 to keep making $ on this one.
XBI #fuzzy 80/83 rolled down to 80/80 and 29 DTE for 0.88 credit. Cb 3.99.
LNG 65/62.5/61/60 rolled this weeks 61 and 62.5 to 61 and 62 for 22 and 29 DTE for 0.56 and 0.88 credits. Cb now 5.34

Also don’t know if any of you saw the Tastytrade episodes, market measures in the summer, search back to around page 7-12 on strangles showing that managing strangles/trades at 21 DTE beat all other management strategies, period. Even better than 50% profits. There are about 3-4 sessions on that. I have an IBB experiment going on starting 43-45 DTE and managing at 21-22 DTE. Hard to tell how it is working with the volatility but I rolled IBB yesterday (just the put side). Will re-establish the strangle depending on where we end up this week or next. I also have an ITM #jadelizard experiment going on at opening at 21 DTE. Will let you know results once I have a few cycles.

Not trying to brag but my core account just hit an all time high so I must be doing something right. That wipes out the SVXY losses on 1 account. 2 others still have a way to go but this is my largest trading account so nice to know I covered those losses in 21 months. I originally thought it would take much longer. I suspect the other 2 accounts will take another 12 months on 1 and 24 on the other. Chipping away and will hope to never make that mistake again!!!!

Trade smart, stay nimble 🙂

#earnings #jadelizard MU Sold Oct….

#earnings #jadelizard MU
Sold Oct. 18, 37/41/46 jade lizard for 1.77. I have an inverted 37/41 Oct. 18 strangle and would prefer that MU go down.

I have once again proven…

I have once again proven my inability to time the market. Yesterday converted a bunch of ATM and ITM XBI puts on a ladder to #fuzzy to avoid the increasing margin. Of course it was up 2+ points yesterday and another 1.5 today. Will manage as #fuzzy. I had already rolled several times and converted to #jadelizard but was still facing increasing margin requirement.

Cost basis 13.80 on 20 lots and already rolled next week 78 up to Oct 11 80 for 1.07 credit so 10 lots at 12.73 but have until Dec 2021 to manage. These are on the put side. LEAPS at 80 strike, shorts at 78, 79.5, and 80 now.

OXY

9/6…BTC OXY 20 SEP 19 45/46/42.5 #jadelizard @.76….STO 8/23 @1.21…Thanks @thomberg1201 for the idea

 

#earnings ZM Sold Sept. 20…

#earnings ZM
Sold Sept. 20 #jadelizard for.3.38, 85/93.50/94
Bought Sept. 1370/80 long put spread for 1.20

#closing OXY Aug. 21 sold…

#closing OXY

Aug. 21 sold a #jadelizard for 1.38, bought today for .83

#earnings #closing FIVE Bought 105/120/121…

#earnings #closing FIVE

Bought 105/120/121 #jadelizard 1.00, sold yesterday for 2.20.

I was considering a 100/140 strangle yesterday. There wasn’t much liquidity at those strikes and it would now take awhile to close with the big up move. Jade Lizard wins this one.
Thanks to fuzzball for starting me thinking about using these for earnings.

#earnings #jadelizard FIVE Sold Sept….

#earnings #jadelizard FIVE

Sold Sept. 20, 105/120/121 for 2.20

#earnings #closing TIF ADSK bought…

#earnings #closing TIF ADSK

bought ADSK, Sept. 20, 125/175 strangle for 1.00, sold yesterday for 2.44
bought TIF, Sept. 20, 75/84/85 #jadelizard .95, sold yesterday for 1.57.
SPLK still refusing to cooperate from earnings the other day grrr
As always, thanks to Jeff for the data that guides the trade decisions.

#earnings #jadelizard TIF Sold Sept….

#earnings #jadelizard TIF #shortstrangles ADSK

TIF sold Sept. 20, 75/84/85 for 1.58.
ADSK sold Sept. 20, 125/175 strangle for 2.44
Thanks for the data Jeff.

HD – Close

BTC $HD 1.925 Puts @0.4 – was the put side of a #jadelizard #earnings trade which was STO @1.84 on 8/19/2019.

ISRG

#JadeLizard – Out a couple weeks for another try. Selling put side at the expected move.

Sold ISRG SEP 6 2019 465.0/495.0/500.0 Jade Lizard @ 5.50

Close ISRG Jade Lizard / Close OKTA Puts

#jadelizard
$ISRG BTC 8/23 500/505/485 jade lizard for 1.60. STO at 5.67. Thank you @fuzzballl

#shortputs
$OKTA BTC 8/23 135 put at .40. STO 8/14 at 5.60

#tastytradefollow QCOM OXY AMZN Plagiarizing…

#tastytradefollow QCOM OXY AMZN

Plagiarizing Sept. 20 expirations all 3.
QCOM #jadelizard 69/79/80 for 1.07
OXY #jadelizard 42.50/45/46 for 1.38
AMZN #callbutterfly 1925/1940/1940/1970 for .88

#earnings HD Sold Sept. 20…

#earnings HD

Sold Sept. 20 #jadelizard 192.50/210/212.50 for 2.77. Thanks for the data Jeff.

#earnings WMT #jadelizard Sold a…

#earnings WMT
#jadelizard Sold a jade lizard with protection, Sept. 13, 95/102/108/109 for 1.63.

SQ 8/23 5 puts closed…

SQ 8/23 65 puts closed for 3.95 or 2.72 loss per contract. I was going to convert to a #jadelizard but do not have time and also took the loss to avoid margin issues so I can stay in my other trades.

First losing trade on SQ this year.

Lots of other trades/puts are ITM but they still have good theta decay so will adjust those tomorrow.

Had a few extra minutes for lunch so:
LNG 67.5/67.5 #fuzzy rolled down to 60 for 1.55 debit and cb of 9.30.
EOG 87.5/87.5 #fuzzy expiring this week rolled down to 75/75 for next week for 3.16 debit. Cb now 18.34

HI

Sorry about the radio silence for a few months. After my injury and recovery I have been too busy at work to post. Does not mean I have not been trading, just did not have time to post. I am finally caught up to the point I can contribute again.

So anyway, hope everyone is doing well. I sorted out how to separate my personal trades from the service and will start posting again. Most trades will be posted end of day but they are usually good for a few days. I also have too many on for update so will just start fresh and post as we go. I mostly trade on Thursdays so that is when updates should occur.

As some of you know I traded full time for 5 weeks as I was recovering. I am also part of the Traders Reserve family and have been working with them professionally. While I was off I binged watched tastytrade, looked at all of the research we have been doing, and experimented with several new tactics that have all been very successful. I will try to keep this short but some of the things I have learned have changed my trading techniques.

So here we go as a summary. Took the case study account from 50k to $75,983 from Jan 1 to June 30. It was more than that but this weeks pull back dropped it a few thousand. Regardless, a 50% increase in 6 months is not too shabby. This included some losing trades, I am not cherry picking here and will attach a screen shot to show this is legit and you can see I am up another 10k from June 30.

So here is what I have and have become very mechanical in my trading. Some people may think it is boring but I trade to make money, not for excitement. If I want excitement will go ski, kiteboard, bike race, or mt bike and hopefully not break any bones again.

  1. Selling options works. The only thing is have to be able to control those big losses that can occur from selling naked options. If you control that you win in the long run.
  2. I am not a directional trader. Congratulations to those that can do it, but even full time trading I could not make it work. However, adding a directional component to option selling has increased my win/loss ratio which improves returns.
  3. Keeping a portfolio hedge on at all times allows you to be much more aggressive selling options. That way if SPY goes to zero the hedges will be worth way more than the accounts. I target hedging each account for a 10% correction meaning that much of a drop will result in no losses. Any more than that and I have a winning lottery ticket. I will explain next time I roll my hedges but have been using /ES. SPX or SPY also work. I also hedge using a risk twist or ratio write so it does not cost as much or a debit spread if I am hedging a fixed amount.
  4. I finance the hedges by selling options so they only cost me house money.
  5. I usually start a position by selling puts. If it moves against me will roll. If that does not work will convert to a #jadelizard. After a few rolls of the jade lizard if that does not work will convert to a LEAP spread and manage it from there.
  6. A position may last a week or several months to years. Depends on what I am trying to accomplish but the end goal is steady income.
  7. TT found 45 DTE opening to managing at 50% returns or 21 DTE closing is ideal for theta decay. We have found 21 DTE may be even better (not in all situations). Our research has found that most OTM options will crush 90% in 10 days after opening at 21-22 DTE. Allows recycling capital quicker, faster decay, but less trades have to be adjusted. Has been the sweet spot this year. As market conditions change that may change as well.
  8. Jade lizard trades allow skewing, flexibility with adjusting, and huge income up front.
  9. Trading through market volatility increases returns once the market rebounds because you are always recycling your cash and adding to positions and basically hyper compounding.
  10. Keep margin balance to no more than 25-50% of total available that way you don’t get margin calls when the market is melting down.
  11. Don’t be emotional when trading (hard to do when your account is down) but must be done. Most people sell at the absolute bottom or buy at the top because of emotions. If they just stayed in the market they would be better off. It is only money, not your life, or face 🙂
  12. Be willing to adapt to what the market is doing. Too many people trade the same way no matter what the market is doing. Different tactics work in different markets but you have to trade the market you are in.

This community helped me realize a lot of this. Most of you are willing to take a chance, experiment with new tactics, and stay in the market even when the proverbial sh#$ hits the fan. Thanks for the help and happy to be back!

Cheers, Chris

Took me a while to figure out how to post a screen shot, but here are the returns for the year so far.

Continue reading

Sold ANET

#Earnings Sold $ANET Aug 2nd 255/265-290/292.5 broken-wing condor for 3.80. #BrokenWingCondor

#jadelizard

Closing SHOP

#Earnings Bought to close $SHOP 275/300-330/332.5 Broken-Wing Condors for 1.90. Sold yesterday for 4.50.

I left the long 275 put in place, since it has no bid and thus may have prevented a fill. Fill price is .60 better than if I had allowed call side to expire ITM.

#jadelizard

SHOP trade

#Earnings Sold to Open $SHOP 275/300-330/332.5 Broken-Wing Condor for 4.50.
My version of #JadeLizard with disaster put. If SHOP goes higher, this will be at least a 2.00 profit.

AAPL Earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizard – The usual. Playing for a down move just outside the expected move with no upside risk. Going out to Aug monthly for a little more room.

Sold AAPL AUG 16 2019 195.0/212.5/215.0 Jade Lizard @ 2.51

BYND earnings trade

#Earnings Sold to Open #JadeLizard with disaster protection, making it a Broken-Wing Iron Condor:

Sold Aug 2nd 230/232.5 call spread AND 175/145 put spread, for 3.87. No upside risk… downside max risk 30.00.

BYND trade

#Earnings I have not traded this one yet. Thinking of Aug 2nd #JadeLizard, sell 180 put, and sell 250/252.5 call spread. Going for 5.45 credit. No upside risk. Thoughts?

XLNX Earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizard – Big bounce right out of the gate so booking it in case the call spread gets in trouble.

Bought to Close XLNX JUL 26 2019 121/129/132 Jade Lizards @ 1.39 (sold for 3.03)

CMG Earnings

#JadeLizards #Earnings – Playing this the same way I played ULTA using the modified #JadeLizard (unbalanced skewed iron condor?) with some downside protection and little to no upside risk.

Sold 1 CMG JUL 26 2019 600/660/720/725 @ 4.91

Playing this to the downside with only 9 cents of upside risk. What do I need? Needing a decent down move below 720 while staying above 660. Spent a little extra for a 600 strike disaster put since you just never know. The expected move (45 points) to the downside would be perfect!

ISRG Earnings (high risk)

#Earnings – Normally don’t enter these until the day of earnings but taking a shot with today’s pullback. Might leg into a #JadeLizard on a bounce. Selling the put side down at the 50ma. Hasn’t been a whole lot to do last week or so. Just letting some earlier sales wind down.

Sold ISRG JUL 19 2019 505.0 Put @ 6.70

STZ Earnings

#JadeLizard – Better than nothing…

Bought to Close STZ JUN 28 2019 177.5/190.0/192.5 Jade Lizard @ 2.25 (put side expiring) (sold for 3.00)

STZ Fuzzy Earnings

#earnings #jadelizard
$STZ BTC 6/28 190/192.50 BECS at 2.20. STO at 1.04. I will let the 6/28 177.50 put expire. STO at 1.91. Thank you @fuzzball for the trade.

STZ Earnings

#JadeLizard – No upside risk and selling the put at the expected move. Stock basis would be down around the May spike low if it implodes…

Sold STZ JUN 28 2019 177.5/190.0/192.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.00

AVGO Jade Lizard

#jadelizard
$AVGO BTC 6/14 265 put at 4.50. STO at 2.45. When BECS 280/285 expires tonight, trade will lose .60.

RH Earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizard – Never had much luck with this one but IV is high enough to give it a shot…

Sold RH JUN 14 2019 80.0/100.0/103.0 Jade Lizard @ 3.15

FIVE Earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizard – Going for extra downside protection again so selling the call side at the money. As usual no upside risk and playing for a move down to the 200ma.

Sold FIVE JUN 7 2019 117.0/126.0/129.0 Jade Lizard @ 3.10

CRM Earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizard – Taking what I can get. Could hold until Friday and hope for a pullback but gonna go ahead and close it.

Bought to Close CRM JUN 7 2019 142.0/150.0/152.5 Jade Lizard @ 2.05 (sold for 2.90)

CRM Earnings

#JadeLizard #Earnings – Selling the lizard with the put side at the expected move and the call side nearly at the money with the stock up 4 dollars today. Playing for a slight down move with no upside risk.

Sold CRM JUN 7 2019 142.0/150.0/152.5 Jade Lizard @ 2.90

ULTA Earnings

#Earnings – The Modified #JadeLizard (unbalanced skewed iron condor?) worked out pretty good. A little down move but held support.

Bought to Close ULTA MAY 31 2019 280/305/340/345 @ .20 (sold for 5.12)

#optionsexpiration and actually these are…

#optionsexpiration and actually these are for next week, I rolled everything today.

Sorry I have not had time to post for anyone that was following trades. I will do a better job of at least a weekly update. That is how I trade. 95% of my trades are on Thurs. so a weekly update should keep things up to date.

Lots of trading last few weeks but equity curve flat. Need the trade tariff BS to end. Not good for business 😦
Most of my trades have been converted to #fuzzy or #lizardpies for recovery.

#hedge
/ES 62 DTE 2610/2605 back ratio has made a few $. It’s real purpose is to guard against a 2/6/18 or 8/24/15 event. Hope I don’t need it but would get a lot of cash then. However like an insurance policy I expect to lose on this.

#pietrades
LABU 45 cc at 44.25 cb and 40 cc at 37.13 and another batch of 40 cc at 38.42
TNA 60 cc at 59.69
TQQQ 63 cc at 62.15
AMAT 22 DTE 42 CC at 41.04. Assigned off a 43 put but had some credits as a cushion

#fuzzy
EOG 92.5/90 rolled down to 87.5/87.5 for a little debit. Cost basis 15.44 but because I had made some on the longs it put some cash back in the account.
GILD 65/65 rolled next week for 0.29 credit. Cost basis 5.91. Should not be too much longer for a free trade.
LNG 67.5/67.5 rolled for 0.34 credit. Cost basis 9.99 down from 15.57 at onset only 4 weeks ago.
XBI 80/80/85 rolled for 0.70 and cb 5.57
XBI 80/85 cb 12.50. This is a new batch we are doing live as an experiment. Avg. about 4% cost reduction per week. With monthlies it is larger about 6-8% but the theta decay is slower. 6% per month is 96% per year.
GILD 65/65 rolled for 0.28 for cb of 3.78. Freebie soon I hope 🙂 but this is also an experiment that will be taken all the way to expiration in 2021.
GILD 65/65 rolled for 0.28 at 6.45. Same as above but this is tracking the compounded addition of contracts as the rolls spit off cash.

#lizardpies
IBB 103.5 rolled down to 102/102/102.5 for total credit of 0.84. This has been recovered all the way from 107/109 strikes. Shows the flexibility of the #jadelizard as a tactic for adjustments.
IWM rolled down from 150 to 149/149/149.5. Reduced debit from 2.11 to 1.63 as I have recovered this from 155/157 strikes. I gave back a little credit to reduce margin.
SQ 63.5/63.5/64 rolled for total credit of 2.19. Looks like it found a bottom.
XBI 81.5 rolled down to 81/81/81.5 for total credit of 2.35.
LNG 64/64/64.5 rolled down from 66 for 1.68 total credit.

Once I can close a few of these, hopefully next week, will start some 21 DTE #lizardpies and create ladders. Some of them will be skewed to downside to just have steady income with every expiration and let them expire each week. Add new ones every Monday or Thurs.

Stay nimble, I suspect there is more volatility ahead but take advantage of the increased premiums 🙂

Here is an example of a 22 DTE #lizardpies I am looking at.

2017-12-01-TOS_CHARTS

7 points of downside protection. No risk to upside. Income over 3 weeks, can probably close early for 50% or more profit.

ULTA Earnings

Modified #JadeLizard (unbalanced skewed iron condor?) with some downside protection and no upside risk. Breakeven down near the 200ma and near the average move of the stock on earnings.

Sold 1 ULTA MAY 31 2019 280/305/340/345 @ 5.12

SPLK Earnings

#JadeLizard #Earnings – Almost identical to ADSK. This thing can go anywhere. If it tanks I’ll get the stock around the 50ma. A nickel of upside risk…

Sold SPLK MAY 24 2019 121/132/135 Jade Lizard @ 2.95

ADSK Earnings

#JadeLizard #Earnings – Copy and paste from last earnings with slightly different strikes. Playing for a down move to no more than the 200ma.

#JadeLizard – This thing can go anywhere. If it tanks I’ll get the stock around the 50ma. No upside risk…

Sold ADSK MAY 24 2019 152.5/170.0/172.5 Jade Lizard @ 2.60

Random stuff that may be useful.

So my 5 week full time trading experiment has been over for about 4 weeks now. Not trying to brag, but had my second best trading month ever even in a very choppy market. Over 9% returns for the month on my total portfolio and now up 38% for the total portfolio for the year as of this last weekend. Several losing trades in there as well.

So ran a few experiments and noticed a few things about the market in live time.

1. While tastytrade has found that the best time to sell options is 45 DTE, it takes a long time for the decay to occur, especially if the ticker moves. I found that there is a huge theta crush from 21 DTE to 14 or 7 DTE for OTM options. You will be closer to the money than 45 DTE, but the theta decay is huge. I may have posted this already and if so sorry for the repeat, but I was in EXPE and several other trades. Had opened both 45 DTE and 21 DTE. It took 3-5 weeks for the 45 DTE options to crush 50% but only 10 days for the 21 DTE to do the same. Recycle capital faster, make more $.

2. #spycraft version 5.1 or so idea. The weekly income is awesome, but then the 5 STD moves crush all your profits and then some. I have been setting up hedges using /ES and SPX and keeping them on almost all the time now. On the big moves down, you can roll for cash and reset the hedge to new levels. You can set up a longer term hedge 90 DTE or so to cover you max loss basically scratching the trade. It will cost more but will prevent the losses. I have not figured out the ideal ratios yet but stay tuned. Plan is to sell 21 day IC or credit spreads, use the cash to buy a few hedges, then roll weekly and keep cash coming in to reduce the hedge cost basis to zero. Other option is convert the spreads to ratios or butterflies. The butterfly seems to limit the losses faster and then if whipsaw no additional losses.

3. Keeping hedges on allows you to be a much more aggressive trader. If the SPX goes to zero, you hedges will be worth much more than your portfolio was. Because of the volatility expansion you can also buy cheaper options than you thought. I have been planning for a 10% drop as my starting point. Then figure out which option would be worth 10k at a 10% drop. Then you can figure out how many contracts to cover your portfolio. Best to do when the VIX is 12. The black swam events seem to be occurring on average 2 times a year since 2015 but are only supposed to happen once every 5 years. I will always have a hedge and will pay for it by selling options or rolling profits from the hedges.

4. #jadelizard and #lizardpies are hugely adaptable. You can often move 3-5 strikes and still take in a credit. You can also skew it to up or downside and really increase returns. If runs through the upper strikes just let it all expire, take the cash, and reset the next week. If it moves down, reset the straddle ATM.

5. #pietrades are still the cash machine but can convert to jade lizards or LEAPs if it really implodes on you.

6. Staying out of earnings trades has been helpful to my equity curve.

7. Staring at 1 and 5 minute charts is mind numbing. Congratulations to those of you that can do it and trade directionally. I can’t and have a lot more fun things to do. I will stay mostly non directional with a slight directional bias and enjoy life and my free time. Most of my trading is on my free time so the less I have to spend trading is more time to do other things. I personally will not take any trade on anything shorter than a 15 or 30 minute chart but my real triggers are now hourly or 4 hour for the weekly trades.

8. Spreads can save your bacon in really volatile markets.

9. Keep enough cash on the sidelines for adjustments and opportunities.

10. There is always another trade or opportunity. If you feel pressured to make a trade, it is probably a bad idea. The less emotional you can be also the better the adjustments/recovery you can make. Think before hitting the confirm and send button and have a plan and stick to the plan if the trade goes against you. Be mechanical in your trading and adjusting. It may seem boring to some but the reason I trade is to make money. I want adrenaline I will go kiteboard or ski and hopefully not break my face again.

11. Having a group to trade with is like extra eyes on the market. Everyone sees different opportunities. Thanks for sharing 🙂

12. Being a specialist pays off. I am a family practitioner but specialists make more in the medical field. Also true in the market. Have a handful of tickers you know, watch and trade. They all have their own personalities and once you know them it is easier to trade them. I think once you have above 10-12 names you are probably trying to do too much. Trading the same tickers over and over has improved my consistency and results. Sure, play the occasional lottery ticket but to pay the bills stick with what you know. And also make sure your tickers are diversified.

Cheers, Chris 🙂

#spx1dte, #spzx1dte

#optionsexpiration #pietrades EOG batch 2…

#optionsexpiration

#pietrades
EOG batch 2 assigned at 89 at a cost basis of 92.63. This is a small account and I plan to take it to spreads to juice returns so just wanted to take the loss so I can redeploy capital on Monday.
EOG batch 1 I rolled up to the 97 cc for next week at 6.75 and after selling the 97 for 1.35 cost basis 96.14. I never figured out why it spiked so much yesterday?
FAS 57 cc assigned at cb of 54.20.
ERX 23 cc rolled 2 weeks for 0.5 credit. Cb 21.81
LNG 4/12 67 put sold for 0.54 yesterday.

#lizardpies
EXPE rolled on 4/3 to 37 DTE 113/130/131 for additional credit. Total credit now 3.84 per contract
EXAS STO the 89 put for 4/12 for 1.01, then converted to #jadelizard yesterday 89/89/90 for another 0.6 credit.
SMH closed 4/3 for 0.45 credit per contract
JPM closed 4/4 for 1.08 credit per contract
SQ rolled out to 4/12 for 1.26 credit at 76/76/76.5 strikes. cb 74.74 if assigned.
TNA 60 rolled to 4/12 62.5/62.5/63 for 1.1 credit.

#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 cb at 6.39
GILD 65/65 rolled out 37 DTE yesterday for 1.07 credit. Cb now 7.34

1 more week of surgical recovery then back to work but trading full time the last few weeks has been more than I would make at work so good to know for retirement. However, I am really looking forward to some solid food!

Expiration but mostly rolls, closing and managing.

#pietrades
EOG 90.5 cc for 4/12 cost basis 90.74. Depending on where it is trading will let assign at slight loss or roll.
EOG 89 cc 4/5 cost basis 92.63. Will roll this one.
ERX 23 cc for 4/5 cost basis 22.31. Will let assign or roll
TQQQ 54.5 cc for 3 weeks cost basis 56.39. Will roll
TQQQ 55 cc for today at 53.79 cost basis. Will assign today.
TQQQ 53.5 cc for 3 weeks cb 56.75. Will roll
FAS 57 cc for 4/5 cost basis 54.20. Will let assign.

#lizardpies
XBI 4/5 86/86/86.5 closed today for 0.52 profit per contract. Could only make .69 above 86 so decent profit for 2 day trade. I had skewed this one to the downside but it moved up today.
EXPE 4/26 115/131/132 for 2.31 credit. Looking good now, hope to close for 50% or better profit in 2 weeks. Right now at 25%.
SMH 4/26 100.5/110/111 for 1.38 credit. Same as above.
SQ 4/5 75.5/75.5/74.03 for 1.75 credit. Same but will most likely roll it in pieces.
JPM STO today the 4/5 101/101/102 for 1.81 credit. Looks like it found a bottom.
TNA 4/5 60/61/61.5 rolled this morning from last week. Credit now 3.06.

#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 for 2 weeks at 8.41 cost basis.
GILD 65/65 for 3 weeks 6.39 cb
XBI 80/80/91.5 cb 11.74. 2 more weeks on the short calls.

Percentage return wise, the #jadelizard trades seem to work the best and also easier to roll because of the initial higher credit. Live study ongoing and will keep you posted. I am also skewing them depending on which way I think it is moving and that seems to help the winning percentage. Using the #markettide to time entries.

Have a good weekend!

2 more weeks in the jaw wires then back to work for me 🙂 although I am enjoying the extra trading.

The pull back helped a…

The pull back helped a few positions so rolling.

#lizardpies
SQ this week 76/76/76.5 rolled the puts to next week 4/5 to the 75.5 put for 0.08 credit. I will let the call side expire worthless then re-establish the #jadelizard on Monday. Cb now 74.14 on put side, no risk to upside.

STO the 4/5 XBI 86/86/86.5 jade lizard for 1.19 credit. Cost basis 84.81 on downside and no risk to upside. Skewed it slightly to downside in case market keeps going down. Anywhere above 86.5 make 0.69 per contract. Below will roll the puts.

#pietrades
EOG batch 1 rolled the 90.5 cc out 2 weeks to 4/11 for 1.05 credit. Cost basis down to 90.74. 1 more roll should be profitable.

Not having a lot of success with directional trades, but by having time to watch the market (not all day) I have been able to time my rolls better and make more income. Not sure I will ever be a full on directional trader. Even watching the 1 minute /ES chart, just missed the pivot.

BURL earnings analysis

#Earnings — $BURL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

I’m posting this one because it has a remarkably bullish response to earnings. Also, in a very long weekly squeeze. Will probably do a bullish butterfly, or maybe try my first #JadeLizard.

Nov. 28, 2018 BO +12.78%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -0.86%
May 31, 2018 BO +7.11%
March 8, 2018 BO +5.84%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -1.51%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +1.36%
May 25, 2017 BO +4.90%
March 2, 2017 BO +6.66%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +15.98% Biggest UP
Aug. 25, 2016 BO +3.12%
May 26, 2016 BO +7.44%
March 3, 2016 BO -2.78% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 5.86%
Bias 5.00%, very strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 170.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.81 to 181.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 160.04 to 179.96
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.0%): 142.83 to 197.17
Based on Max DOWN only (-2.8%): 165.27

Open to requests for other symbols.