BABA earnings analysis

#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO 3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO 2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO 0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO 3.06%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -2.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO 5.08% Biggest UP
May 5, 2016 BO 3.96%
Jan. 28, 2016 BO -3.76%
Oct. 27, 2015 BO 4.04%

Avg + or – 3.25%
Bias 0.57%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 143.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 134.69 to 151.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 138.36 to 147.64
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.9%): 134.56 to 151.44

Expected move is same as Maximum move, which is rare.

Open for requests on other symbols.

#jadelizard

STMP earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizard – Taking the upside risk off the lizard and still waiting on the put side. Covered calls on the put side at a 170 basis wouldn’t be the end of the world so watching it for now.

Bought to Close STMP NOV 2 2018 215.0/220.0 Bear Call Spread @ .10

Originally:

Sold 1 STMP NOV 2 2018 175.0/215.0/220.0 Jade Lizard @ 5.10

STMP earnings

#Earnings – Taking a shot with another #JadeLizard. No upside risk. Selling just outside the expected move on the downside and just inside the expected move on the upside. But….this thing could go anywhere. It’s had some crazy moves.

Sold 1 STMP NOV 2 2018 175.0/215.0/220.0 Jade Lizard @ 5.10

BIDU earnings

#Earnings – Selling a #JadeLizard based on Jeff’s data of average move on earnings. No upside risk and I’ll just manage the put on an implosion.

Sold 1 BIDU NOV 2 2018 167.5/190.0/192.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.55

#jadelizard DOCU tastyTrade idea sold…

#jadelizard DOCU

tastyTrade idea sold Dec. 21 35/49/50 for 1.58. Short 35 put, short 49 call, long 50 call

#jadelizard SFIX Tastytrade idea sold…

#jadelizard SFIX
Tastytrade idea sold Nov. 16, 26/32/34, (+26 put, -32 call, +34) call for 2.23.

ROKU Earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizard – Just to close the books on this…Jade Lizard with 50/51 on the call side and stock obviously blew through that. Closed those for .98 so picking up 2 cents and saving exercise fees. Originally sold for 1.35 so net gain of 37 cents.

See you next quarter!