BURL earnings analysis

#Earnings — $BURL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

I’m posting this one because it has a remarkably bullish response to earnings. Also, in a very long weekly squeeze. Will probably do a bullish butterfly, or maybe try my first #JadeLizard.

Nov. 28, 2018 BO +12.78%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -0.86%
May 31, 2018 BO +7.11%
March 8, 2018 BO +5.84%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -1.51%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +1.36%
May 25, 2017 BO +4.90%
March 2, 2017 BO +6.66%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +15.98% Biggest UP
Aug. 25, 2016 BO +3.12%
May 26, 2016 BO +7.44%
March 3, 2016 BO -2.78% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 5.86%
Bias 5.00%, very strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 170.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.81 to 181.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 160.04 to 179.96
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.0%): 142.83 to 197.17
Based on Max DOWN only (-2.8%): 165.27

Open to requests for other symbols.

ADSK Earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizard – Bought to Close ADSK MAR 1 2019 150.0/170.0/172.5 Jade Lizard @ .17 (sold for 3.25)

ADSK Earnings

#JadeLizard – This thing can go anywhere. If it tanks I’ll get the stock around the 50ma. No upside risk…

Sold ADSK MAR 1 2019 150.0/170.0/172.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.25

#earnings #jadelizard M Sold March…

#earnings #jadelizard M

Sold March 15, 22(put)/25/25.50 for .73, stock at 24.60, recent low of 23.95. I have 100 assigned shares from a while ago. Thanks for the data Jeff.


#Earnings #JadeLizard – Taking off the call side but still holding the 217.50 put for now….

Bought to Close NTES FEB 22 2019 232.5/237.5 Bear Call Spread @ .03

NTES Earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizard – Haven’t had a chance to mess with much earnings this quarter other than NVDA last week. I’ll take a shot at NTES today with a slightly bearish play since the stock is up today and at resistance. Using a Jade Lizard (no upside risk). This position would need the stock to trade lower on the announcement but no lower than slightly more than the expected move (212.30 b/e). Worse case scenario it turns into a covered call position with nice weekly premium.

Sold NTES FEB 22 2019 217.5/232.5/237.5 Jade lizard @ 5.20

#rolling, adjustments, and new trades…

#rolling, adjustments, and new trades

MU rolled the 35/35 out 16 DTE for 0.5 credit. Cb now 14.30
WDC 40/40 rolled out 9 DTE for 0.33 credit. Cb now 17.71

I was going to close these at a loss but figure if I can get at least 0.25 per roll will keep rolling to generate cash and lower cost basis. 10 contracts each so decent income.

SQ STO the 9 DTE Feb 8-9 68 put for 1.53. Decided not to jade lizard until after FOMC and see what the market does. If we gap up I will sell the CCS once it has a top or range.

FOMC must have just released up 10 more on /ES. I may #jadelizard SQ into the close if it slows down to the upside.

After 4-5 months of crap trading, finally making some income/cash and money again but I still have a long way to go to recover the SVXY fiasco.