Bought to open $VXXB Jan 2020 20 puts for 1.75.
A starter position for a 12-month trade. My bigger target will be the 2021 LEAPs, which are still pretty expensive, but should lower in value by late summer, provided we don’t enter a bear market. I may also look at ATM puts and sell puts against them, but this OTM position is meant to be a cheaper play that stands alone without cost reduction.
Rolled $SQ Jan 18th 66 calls to Feb 1st 67 calls for .25 credit.
Rolled $TQQQ Jan 18th 42.5 calls to Feb 1st 43.5 calls for .25 credit.
#VXXGame #LongLEAPs Over the years I put a lot of research into the idea of buying long $VXX LEAP puts, since the symbol is dragged toward zero over time. I built an extensive spreadsheet showing how this strategy would have worked with every VIX leap expiration since 2006 except Jan 2009, during the financial crisis. (VXX was created in 2009, but there are models available of how it would have performed going back to 2004).
Other than Jan 2009, the 18-month to 24-month decline in $VXX is usually 60-90%; even as much as 97% down over 24 months.
So when I started buying the Jan 2019 VXX 20 puts on September 5th, 2017, the odds looked pretty good for a decent profit. I started scaling in and ended up with a total of 32 puts over multiple accounts, average price 1.603. I also sold some 50/60 call spreads against it, lowering that cost basis down to about 1.20.
But, guess what? Picked the wrong year! This is the first LEAP expiration since 2009 where this strategy did not work. And now $VXX is going away at the end of this month, replaced by $VXXB, which doesn’t have much volume yet. However, they HAVE finally added LEAPs, so I’ll be looking to start buying.
Also, because of the product termination, I closed my final short shares in $VXX today for 37.25. I was assigned 100 shares short for 27.00, and had managed to scale out of 30 of them when we dipped below 27.00 in September. Then, October happened.
Sold $TQQQ Jan 11th 42.5 calls for 1.45. A roll from this week’s calls that were stopped out.
Sold to Open $SQ Jan 18th 66 calls for 1.35. Replace the Jan 4th calls I stopped out of yesterday.
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls First time I’ve had to do this in weeks. Both strikes breached so I exited on pull back and will wait for spikes higher to roll.
BTC $SQ Jan 11th 61 calls for 1.65. Sold for 1.20 on Friday.
BTC $TQQQ Jan 11th 40 calls for 1.30. Sold for .85 on Friday.
Sold $TQQQ Jan 11th 40 calls for .85
Sold $SQ Jan 11th 61 calls for 1.20.