NVDA earnings and post earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Happy to be out of this week. Selling outside the expected move and down near the 200ma on the new one.

Bought to Close NVDA FEB 26 2021 550.0 Put @ 2.25 (sold for 5.00)
Sold NVDA MAR 19 2021 500.0 Put @ 4.20

OSTK earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Adding. Still going out an extra week for slightly lower sales.

Sold OSTK MAR 5 2021 70.0 Puts @ 2.00

OSTK earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Going out an extra week. Earnings Wed morning. Small position for now and see how tomorrow looks.

Sold OSTK MAR 5 2021 75.0 Puts @ 1.35

LAZR NVDA SOXL

#ShortPuts #Earnings – A few sales on the dip.

LAZR: First time in this expiration. I think you can do better now legging in. I sold all at the same time.
Sold LAZR MAR 26 2021 26.5 Puts @ 2.20
Sold LAZR MAR 26 2021 27.0 Puts @ 1.42
Sold LAZR MAR 26 2021 27.5 Puts @ 1.78

NVDA: Earnings Wed. Selling my position a little early on the weakness.
Sold NVDA FEB 26 2021 550.0 Put @ 5.00

SOXL: Jumping back in. Meant to do the 510 strike for the split.
Sold SOXL MAR 19 2021 515.0 Put @ 20.00

FSLY earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Just to have something to watch…selling slightly inside the expected move with breakeven at the expected move and the 200ma. This would be an assignment 40 percent off the highs.

Sold FSLY FEB 19 2021 85.0 Put @ 2.25

OSTK pre-earnings and earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Closing the pre earnings trade and with the down day today starting an earnings position. Leaving room to add on any more weakness or any more premium getting pumped in next week. Earnings a week from today.

Bought to Close OSTK FEB 19 2021 70.0 Puts @ .10 (sold for 1.30)

Sold OSTK FEB 26 2021 75.0 Puts @ 1.20, 1.25, 1.30

QS earnings

#Earnings – Not showing anywhere on my TOS watchlist but my news feed and the company website says they are announcing today. I’m closing this one just for safety. Might add a different one later.

Bought to Close QS FEB 19 2021 50.0 Put @ 3.10 (sold for 4.00)

DDOG earnings and post earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings #JadeLizards – Stock is down Lizard is good and adding a new position.

Bought to Close DDOG FEB 12 2021 108.0/118.0/120.0 Jade Lizard @ .50 (sold for 2.30)

Sold DDOG MAR 19 2021 95.0 Put @ 2.00

DDOG earnings

#JadeLizards #Earnings – Playing it for a down move. No upside risk.

Sold DDOG FEB 12 2021 108.0/118.0/120.0 Jade Lizard @ 2.30

PLTR Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Earnings Tue before the open so starting a position now. Hopefully add on more weakness today or tomorrow. Going out an extra week for the sales.

Sold PLTR FEB 26 2021 27.5 Put @ .99
Sold PLTR FEB 26 2021 28.0 Put @ 1.06
Sold PLTR FEB 26 2021 29.0 Put @ 1.36
Sold PLTR FEB 26 2021 30.0 Put @ 1.73
Sold PLTR FEB 26 2021 30.5 Put @ 2.01

EDIT: Added 27.5 and 30.5 strikes. 27.60 basis if all assigned.

CYBR Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings #OneNightStand – Bought to Close CYBR FEB 19 2021 145.0 Put @ .40 (sold for 2.10)

TWTR Earnings

#JadeLizards #Earnings – Taking the small winner.

Bought to Close TWTR FEB 12 2021 52.5/60.5/61.5 Jade Lizards @ 1.00 (sold for 1.40)

TWTR Earnings

#JadeLizards #Earnings – I rarely trade this but taking a shot here. Playing it to the downside with no upside risk.

Sold TWTR FEB 12 2021 52.5/60.5/61.5 Jade Lizards @ 1.40

PINS Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Stock covered at 65 and adding some put sales. Selling at the expected move and near recent lows. Stock is in a squeeze along with earnings so who knows where this goes.

Sold PINS FEB 5 2021 67.5 Puts @ 1.50

WYNN Puts / TQQQ Puts Close / PLTR Call

#shortputs #earnings
$WYNN STO 2/12 96 put at .70. Earnings tomorrow after close. Feels like gambling. 😉
$TQQQ BTC 2/19 47.50 47.50 put at .10. STO at 1.10. Thank you @jsd501 and @fuzzballl

#coveredcalls
$PLTR STO 2/5 34 calls at .65

BIIB NVDA SNOW

#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls #Earnings – A little bit of everything.

BIIB: Covered roll and adding on the earnings dip.
Rolled BIIB FEB 5 2021 257.5 Call to FEB 12 2021 260.0 Call @ even (thanks for the pullback!)
Sold BIIB MAR 19 2021 240.0 Put @ 3.80

NVDA: Pre-earnings trade. Taking it now on the run up. Earnings Feb 24th.
Bought to Close NVDA FEB 19 2021 480.0 Put @ 1.35 (sold for 7.50)

SNOW: Adding. Been in a squeeze for awhile now.
Sold SNOW FEB 26 2021 275.0 Put @ 7.50

PLTR

#Earnings – Just what I was afraid of. TOS wasn’t even close. Puts sold today will probably be immediately underwater tomorrow due to the IV increase.

DENVER–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) announced today that results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2020 will be released on Tuesday, February 16, 2021, prior to the open of the U.S. markets. The Company will host a conference call to discuss its results at 6:00am MT / 8:00am ET.

I sold Feb 26 so it will be interesting to see how they are affected…

#closing #earnings AAPL Bought March…

#closing #earnings AAPL

Bought March 19, 115/125/165/175 #ironcondor for 2.57, sold yesterday for 3.15

TSLA Earnings

#JadeLizards #Earnings – Trying to rally back up to the call side so taking it for about half.

Boughtto Close TSLA JAN 29 2021 725.0/850.0/852.5 Jade Lizard @ 1.57 (sold for 3.25)

#earnings #ironcondor AAPL Sold March…

#earnings #ironcondor AAPL #jadelizard AAL

AAPL Sold March 19, 115/125/165/175 for 3.15
AAL Sold Feb. 19, 17/17/19 for 2.35

Both #tastytradefollow

XLNX

#Earnings – For anyone interested in this one it looks like earnings are now tomorrow after the close…

NFLX Earnings

#ShortStrangles #Earnings – Not sure where this is going but happy to be out with a tiny profit on the opening dip.

Bought to Close NFLX JAN 22 2021 470.0/570.0 Strangle @ 7.25 (sold for 7.62)

SLB WFC

#BoredToDeath trades
Bought to Open SLB Mar 19 2021 37.5 Calls / Sold to Open SLB Jan 22 2021 27.0 Calls @ 0.08 Credit – pre #earnings
Bought to Open WFC Mar 19 2021 40.0 Calls / Sold to Open WFC Jan 22 2021 33.0 Calls @ 0.06 Credit – post #earnings

NFLX Earnings

#ShortStrangles #Earnings – A little riskier than normal. Really using this to replace my TSLA strangle that looks great now. Selling at the 200 day at barely inside the expected move and the all time high at 2x the expected move.

Sold NFLX JAN 22 2021 470.0/570.0 Strangle @ 7.62

WFC Calls on Earnings

Covered the short side of a Diagonal Bear Call Spread on this #Earnings news
Bought to close WFC 01/15/2021 35.00 Calls @ 0.01.
Sold these on 01/12 @ 0.57.

I’ve got lots of other Bear Call diagonals on WFC for next week.

#earnings MU reports tomorrow, any…

#earnings
MU reports tomorrow, any thoughts?

TSCO Puts Gone / SWI Mishmosh / TSLA Put Closed / Z Put / VXX Rolled

#shortputs #earnings
$TSCO BTC 12/18 140 put at .40. Been rolling since 10/20 on earnings trade gone awry. I now have vertigo on the wane and $125 for my spinning.

#longcalls #shortputs #bups #Mishmosh
$SWI BTO 1/15/2021 17.50 calls at 2.40
$SWI STO 1/15/2021 20 puts at 3.00
$SWI STO 2/19/2021 10/17.50 BUPS at 1.85

#shortputs
$TSLA BTC 12/18465 put at .65. STO at 4.65. Way to go @fuzzballl
$Z STO 12/18 130 put at .70.
$VXX BTC 12/18 21 and STO 12/24 21 at added credit of .20. Sold against long put. Channeling @optioniceman

COST #earnings Here’s a trade…

COST #earnings

Here’s a trade I just executed very similar to CHWY. Uses call skew for bullish play, financed by a short put, no upside risk, downside BE is about $362.60, right at expected move. Traded small for assignment. On these trades the T1 line can rise above the max P/L line, if the stock price is close to, but below, the call fly. So on a down move it’s important to be nimble for an advantageous close.

Dec 11 Expiration
Call Skew Fly: 2/3/1 372.5/375/377.5 for 1.43 debit
Short Put: 362.5 $1.24 cr

cost er

#rolling #earnings SFIX Dec. 7…

#rolling #earnings SFIX

Dec. 7 in an act of pure genius I sold a Dec. 18, 29/45 strangle for 1.20. Today rolled the 45 call to Jan., sold a 45 put for 3.47. SFIX is at 55.

CHWY LAZR VLDR ZM

#ShortPuts #Earnings – A few this morning…

CHWY: Closing the quickie earnings play.
Bought to Close CHWY DEC 18 2020 70.0 Puts @ .80 (sold for 1.36)
Bought to Close CHWY DEC 18 2020 68.0 Puts @ .45 (sold for .93)

LAZR: Taking the one day profit. Looking to re-load.
Bought to Close LAZR JAN 15 2021 20.0 Puts @ .85 (sold for 1.53)

VLDR: First time in this one. LAZR competitor.
Sold VLDR JAN 15 2021 15.0 Puts @ 1.50

ZM: Reducing size since looking weak.
Bought to Close ZM DEC 11 2020 375.0 Put @ 1.90 (sold for 5.00)
Bought to Close ZM DEC 11 2020 500.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.40)
Bought to Close ZM DEC 18 2020 360.0 Put @ 3.60 (sold for 5.60)

CHWY Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Going out a week and selling the expected move and just above the 50ma. Small position..

Sold CHWY DEC 18 2020 68.0 Puts @ .93

CHWY #earnings I’m bullish, there’s…

CHWY #earnings

I’m bullish, there’s big call skew in this ticker. I’ve been having good success orienting unbalanced flies to take advantage of the skew. Market Mindset on TT has been talking about this a lot too, with their “broken heart” trade. Admittedly I usually position earnings for way more downside room, so we’ll see how this goes.
So here’s my executed trade for earnings:

Dec 11
Skew Fly (with net 4.42 volatility edge, found via vol sum):
Bought qty 2 78 call
Sold Qty 3 85 call
Bought qty 1 95 call
Net Debit 2.99
For finance:
Sold qty 2 72 put @ 1.40
No upside risk, downside risk is assignment of 200 shares

chwy

COUP Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – First time in this one so playing it cautiously. Going out a few weeks and selling near recent lows, outside the expected move, and well below the 50ma.

Sold COUP DEC 31 2020 275.0 Put @ 4.00

#closing #shortputs APPN Dec. 1,…

#closing #shortputs APPN #earnings #shortstrangles SFIX

APPN Dec. 1, sold a Dec. 18, 110 put for 3.60, bought today for .35.
SFIX sold Dec. 18, 29/45 strangle for 1.20, stock is at 36.
#tastytradefollow

DOCU Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings #OneNightstand – Book it…

Bought to Close DOCU DEC 18 2020 205.0 Put @ .67 (sold for 3.60)

JKS #earnings STO 18 Dec…

JKS #earnings
STO 18 Dec 50P for 1.45
Earnings on Dec 7

DOCU Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Going out a couple weeks again for this one similar to SNOW yesterday.

Sold DOCU DEC 18 2020 205.0 Put @ 3.60

SNOW Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings #OneNightstand – Book it…

Bought to close SNOW DEC 18 2020 250.0 Put @ 1.40 (sold for 5.50)

SNOW Earnings

#bups #earnings

First earnings report for this IPO.

$SNOW STO 12/4 265/270 BUPS at 1.45. Expected move around $32 This is $23 below. Odds not in my favor. Or am I dyslexic?

SNOW Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – I’ve got one account that’s nearly all cash so going pretty aggressive here. Looking out to the monthly expiration and selling below the 50ma and with breakeven at the expected move. First earnings announcement for SNOW so who knows where it goes…

Sold SNOW DEC 18 2020 250.0 Put @ 6.00

EDIT: Since this is it’s first ever announcement buying a disaster put for this week…

Bought SNOW DEC 4 2020 225.0 Put @ .50

ZM Earnings

#ShortStrangles #Earnings – Good enough…

Bought to Close ZM DEC 4 2020 380/600 Strangle @ 2.95 (sold for 6.50)

ZM Earnings

#ShortStrangles #Earnings – In a different account than the first ZM trade…

Sold ZM DEC 4 2020 380/600 Strangle @ 6.50

NVDA Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – I’ll take ’em here…

Bought to Close NVDA NOV 20 2020 505.0 Put @ .35 (sold for 3.35)
Bought to Close NVDA NOV 20 2020 500.0 Put @ .30 (sold for 4.25)

NVDA earnings analysis

#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 19, 2020 AC +0.02%
May 21, 2020 AC +2.86%
Feb. 13, 2020 AC +7.02%
Nov. 14, 2019 AC -2.66%
Aug. 15, 2019 AC +7.25% Biggest UP
May 16, 2019 AC -2.28%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%

Avg (+ or -) 5.14%
Bias 0.01%, no bias on earnings.

With stock at 537.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 501.81 to 572.19 (+/- 6.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 509.41 to 564.59
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.8%): 436.31 to 637.69
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 575.93

Open to requests for other symbols.

TGT earnings

Sold $TGT 12/4 155/177.50 strangle @ 4.11.
#Earnings #TastyTradeFollow

DKNG Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings #OneNightStand – Quick and easy…

Bought to Close DKNG NOV 20 2020 37.0 Puts @ .20 (sold for .90)

DKNG Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Looks like I dodged the BYND bullet so taking another shot at earnings. Going out an extra week…

Sold DKNG NOV 20 2020 37.0 Puts @ .90

BYND Earnings

#JadeLizards #Earnings – Looks like we’re not getting rid of cows quite yet… 🙂

Rolled call spread side of the Lizard down from 144/147 to 120/124 for 1.09 credit against a 125 put. Total credit now 4.14 so still no upside risk. Dead zone in this position is from 124.14 to 125.00 I’d be happy for it to get back to those levels.

BYND Earnings

#JadeLizards #Earnings – Taking a small shot needing a little down move. No upside risk…

Sold BYND NOV 13 2020 125.0/144.0/147.0 Jade Lizard @ 3.05

#earnings TTD Up big after…

#earnings TTD

Up big after earnings!

#assignment #coveredcalls TWTR #earnings assigned…

#assignment #coveredcalls TWTR #earnings

assigned TWTR from an Oct. 30, 44/63 earnings trade.
Sold 40.50 covered call for 1.46.

GILD Put

Decided to roll this instead of taking assignment. The EX Dividend date is not until December so no need to commit the cash just yet.
Bought to close GILD 10/30/2020 60.0 Put / Sold GILD 11/27/2020 58.0 Put @ 0.22 Credit and lowered the short strike 2 points to within a point of the 52week low of 57.04 set just yesterday after #Earnings

AAPL FSLR NFLX NVDA OLED OSTK SPY TQQQ TSLA

#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls #Earnings – Out all morning but finally caught up. Some winners booked and some rolls done along with a couple new sales.

AAPL: Selling slightly ITM playing for the iPhone 12/5G/Black Friday/Holiday Bounce.
Sold AAPL NOV 20 2020 110.0 Put @ 5.45

FSLR: Covered Calls.
Sold FSLR NOV 6 2020 86.0 Calls @ 3.45

NFLX: New sale…can’t resist. Going out a little to sell even lower. At the expected move and well below the 200ma.
Sold NFLX NOV 20 2020 425.0 Put @ 6.61

NVDA: Rolled and sold against.
Rolled NVDA OCT 30 2020 525.0 Put to NVDA NOV 13 2020 512.5 Put @ .37 credit (12.75 total now)
Rolled NVDA OCT 30 2020 517.5 Put to NVDA NOV 13 2020 500.0 Put @ .30 credit (3.65 total now)
Sold NVDA NOV 6 2020 535.0 Call @ 3.40

OLED: Earnings trade worked nicely 🙂 🙂
Bought to Close OLED OCT 30 2020 172.5/230.0 Strangles @ .10 (sold for 2.87)

OSTK: Rolled and sold against. Basis if assigned is down in the 59.70 area
Rolled OSTK OCT 30 2020 67.5 Put to NOV 13 2020 65.0 Put @ .20 debit
Rolled OSTK OCT 30 2020 65.0 Put to NOV 13 2020 62.0 Put @ even
Rolled OSTK OCT 30 2020 62.5 Put to NOV 13 2020 60.0 Put @ 1.40 credit
Sold OSTK NOV 6 2020 70.0 Call @ 1.05

SPY: Adding one outside the expected move.
Sold SPY DEC 11 2020 275.0 Put @ 3.20

TQQQ: Booking but not adding anywhere.
Bought to Close TQQQ OCT 30 2020 110.0 Put @ .12 (sold for 1.55)
Bought to Close TQQQ OCT 30 2020 115.0 Put @ 1.10 (sold for 2.00)

TSLA: New sale:
Sold TSLA NOV 06 2020 350.0 Put @ 5.94

#earnings TWTR #shortstrangles Sold Oct….

#earnings TWTR #shortstrangles

Sold Oct. 30, 44/63 strangle for 1.30
#tastytradefollow

FB earnings analysis

#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 30, 2020 AC +8.17%
April 29, 2020 AC +5.41%
Jan. 29, 2020 AC -6.13%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +1.80%
July 24, 2019 AC -1.93%
April 24, 2019 AC +5.84%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +10.81% Biggest UP
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%

Avg (+ or -) 6.44%
Bias 1.60%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 282.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 264.08 to 299.92 (+/- 6.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 263.84 to 300.16
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 335.47 to 228.53
Based on UP max only (+10.8%): 312.48

Open to requests for other symbols.

AMZN earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 30, 2020 AC +3.69%
April 30, 2020 AC -7.59% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 30, 2020 AC +7.37%
Oct. 24, 2019 AC -1.09%
July 25, 2019 AC -1.55%
April 25, 2019 AC +2.54%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81%
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 4.77%
Bias 0.86%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 3210.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 3045.70 to 3374.30 (+/- 5.1%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 3056.96 to 363.04
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 2785.96 to 3634.04
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 2959.30

Open to requests for other symbols.

OLED Earnings

#ShortStrangles #Earnings – Going wide…hopefully wide enough. Great premium to roll into next week if needed.

Sold OLED OCT 30 2020 172.5/230.0 Strangles @ 2.87

TDOC Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings #OneNightStand – Taking the quickie and looking out to next week to add…

Bought to Close TDOC OCT 30 2020 212.5 Put @ 1.35 (sold for 3.10)

AAPL earnings analysis

#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 30, 2020 AC +10.46% Biggest UP
April 30, 2020 AC -1.60%
Jan. 28, 2020 AC +2.09%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +2.26%
July 30, 2019 AC +2.04%
April 30, 2019 AC +4.90%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +6.83%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -6.63% Biggest DOWN
July 31, 2018 AC +5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC +4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.61%

Avg (+ or -) 4.50%
Bias 2.41%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 114.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 104.44 TO 123.56 (+/- 8.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 108.87 TO 119.13
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.5%): 102.08 TO 125.92
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 106.44

Open to requests for other symbols.

TDOC Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Going back in..

Sold TDOC OCT 30 2020 212.5 Put @ 3.10

#earnings MSFT #calendar Bought Oct….

#earnings MSFT #calendar

Bought Oct. 6/Nov. 30 217.50 calendar for 2.10

#tastytradefollow

FSLR Earnings

#ShortStrangles #Earnings – Everything in all accounts decaying nicely (good) but I’m bored (bad) so here goes nothing just to do something.

Sold FSLR OCT 30 2020 75.0/90.0 Strangles @ 1.53

#earnings CHGG Sold Nov. 20,…

#earnings CHGG

Sold Nov. 20, 70 put for 1.60, stock at 85.50
#tastytradefollow

OptionsExpiration

Short positions Expired:
AAL 10/23/2020 13.50 Diagonal Calls
ADS 10/23/2020 53.00 Diagonal Calls
ADS 10/23/2020 54.00 Diagonal Calls
SPY 10/23/2020 346.00 Diagonal Calls – finally another one worked
VXX 10/23/2020 26.50 Diagonal Calls
VXX 10/23/2020 26.00 Diagonal Calls
VXX 10/23/2020 25.50 Diagonal Calls
VXX 10/23/2020 25.00 Diagonal Calls
VXX 10/23/2020 24.50 Diagonal Calls
WFC 10/22020 27.00 Covered Calls

VXX 10/23/2020 22.00 Diagonal Puts
WFC 10/22020 22.00 Diagonal Puts

Assignments:
WDC 10/23/2020 41.00 Covered Calls – finally out of the busted #Earnings play from Aug 05 when I sold the 40 puts and got assigned.

TSCO PUT Rolled

#earnings #shortputs #Disappointed

$TSCO BTC 10/23 145 put and STO 10/30 144 put at .30 debit

TSLA earnings analysis

#Earnings $TSLA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 22, 2020 AC -4.97%
April 29, 2020 AC -2.32%
Jan. 29, 2020 AC +10.29%
Oct. 23, 2019 AC +17.66% Biggest UP
July 24, 2019 AC -13.61% Biggest DOWN
April 24, 2019 AC -4.26%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -0.56%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18%
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%

Avg (+ or -) 8.33%
Bias 0.55%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 430.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 394.07 to 465.93 (+/- 8.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 394.19 to 465.81
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.7%): 354.06 to 505.94
Based on DOWN max only (-13.6%): 371.48

Open to requests for other symbols.

TSCO earnings analysis

#Earnings $TSCO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 23, 2020 BO +0.03%
April 23, 2020 BO -0.36%
Jan. 30, 2020 BO -1.25%
Oct. 24, 2019 BO +3.02%
July 25, 2019 BO -0.90%
April 25, 2019 BO +0.96%
Jan. 31, 2019 BO -4.70%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +5.80%
July 26, 2018 BO +2.81%
April 26, 2018 BO +7.18% Biggest UP
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -6.30% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 25, 2017 AC -0.98%

Avg (+ or -) 2.86%
Bias 0.44%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 150.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 142.77 to 157.23 (+/- 4.8%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 145.71 to 154.29
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.2%): 139.23 to 160.77
Based on DOWN max only (-6.3%): 140.55

Open to requests for other symbols.

#shortputs

NFLX earnings analysis

#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 16, 2020 AC -6.52%
April 21, 2020 AC -2.86%
Jan. 21, 2020 AC -3.58%
Oct. 16, 2019 AC +2.46%
July 17, 2019 AC -10.27% Biggest DOWN
April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%

Avg (+ or -) 5.19%
Bias -0.70%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 530.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 484.26 to 575.74 (+/- 8.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 502.52 to 557.48
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.3%): 475.57 to 584.43
Based on UP max only (+10.0%): 582.84

NOTE: 3-day data: Max UP +18.5%, Max DOWN -13.1%. Avg Move +/- 6.5%, Bias: -1.24%

Open to requests for other symbols.

ISRG Earnings

#IronButterfly #Earnings – Didn’t post this yesterday since it seemed like such a ridiculous trade…LOL Got lucky for once. Taking the gain now. Risk was 30 to make 470.

Bought to Close ISRG OCT 16 2020 745/750/750/755 Iron Butterfly @ 3.05 (sold for 4.70)

WBA

Highest price in a month (38.22) on the back of the #Earnings report

ADS WBA Calls

Sold 1 ADS 10/16/2020 51.0 Covered Call @ 0.45 Stock = 48.50
Sold WBA 10/16/2020 40.0 Covered Calls @ 0.26 #Earnings this week. Stock = 37

AAL ADS KSS WFC

Covered Calls for next week:
Sold AAL Oct 16 2020 14.5 Covered Calls at $0.28
Sold ADS Oct 16 2020 50.5 Covered Calls at $0.60
Sold KSS Oct 16 2020 23.0 Covered Calls at $0.31
Sold WFC Oct 16 2020 26.5 Covered Calls at $0.26 (#Earnings)

ADS Covered Calls

Sold ADS Oct 09 2020 49 Covered Calls at $0.45.

#Earnings not until 10/22

WFC Put spread

Put buyers are really concerned about Well Fargo’s October 14th #Earnings report
Bought to Open WFC Dec 18 2020 17.5 Puts / Sold to open WFC Oct 16 2020 21.5 Puts @ 0.04 Net Credit.

The short strike is a half point below the 52Week low.
And I have another spread-based short put at 22.0 that probably expires the week before.
That will give me an extra set of protective long puts.

MU earnings analysis

#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 29, 2020 AC +4.82%
March 25, 2020 AC +5.38%
Dec. 18, 2019 AC +2.80%
Sept. 26, 2019 AC -11.09% Biggest DOWN
June 25, 2019 AC +13.34% Biggest UP
March 20, 2019 AC +9.61%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -7.91%
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC +0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC +8.51%

Avg (+ or -) 6.60%
Bias 1.62%%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 51.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 47.23 to 54.77 (+/- 7.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 47.64 to 54.36
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 44.20 to 57.80
Based on DOWN max only (-11.1%): 45.34

Open to requests for other symbols.