KMX closed

#Earnings. Sold to close $KMX Jun21/Jun28 83 #DoubleCalendar for 1.00. Bought yesterday for .43. Only got filled on 3, was going for 17. 😦

RHT long shot

#Earnings #Takeover Bought $RHT June 21st 190 calls for .06, .09, .10.

I doubt this will go anywhere but it’s costing me almost nothing. Was filled for .09 on IB, then TOS would only allow .05 increments, so bought there for .10, then went back to IB, bidding .09 for more and was filled for .06. I was charged zero commission for the .09 bunch, but 1.44 per option on the .06 bunch.

Brokers can be nutty.

KMX dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $KMX Jun21/Jun28 83 #DoubleCalendar for .43. Filling slowly, 1 lot every minute or so.

KMX earnings analysis

#Earnings $KMX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 29, 2019 BO +9.61%
Dec. 21, 2018 BO +3.94%
Sept. 26, 2018 BO -1.60%
June 22, 2018 BO +12.86% Biggest UP
April 4, 2018 BO +4.61%
Dec. 21, 2017 BO -3.60%
Sept. 22, 2017 BO +7.77%
June 21, 2017 BO +0.80%
April 6, 2017 BO +2.36%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +6.09%
Sept. 21, 2016 BO -2.04%
June 21, 2016 BO -4.91% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 5.02%
Bias 2.99%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 82.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 77.07 to 87.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 78.36 to 86.64
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 71.89 to 93.11
Based on UP Max only (-4.9%): 78.45

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

RHT earnings ???

#Earnings $RHT reports tonight, but there is no volatility or premium in options expiring tomorrow. I don’t know what’s going on, because all sources say it reports tonight. Time to buy a buttload of long straddles? Anyone know what’s up?

Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 25, 2019 AC +0.29%
Dec. 17, 2018 AC 0.00%
Sept. 19, 2018 AC -6.53%
June 21, 2018 AC -14.23%
March 26, 2018 AC +0.86%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC -5.32%
Sept. 25, 2017 AC +4.07%
June 20, 2017 AC +9.58%
March 27, 2017 AC +5.20%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC -13.88%
Sept. 21, 2016 AC +3.86%
June 22, 2016 AC -1.70%

Avg (+ or -) 5.46%
Bias -1.48%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 188.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 187.23 to 189.77 (???)
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 178.21 to 198.79
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.2%): 161.88 yo 215.32
Based on UP Max only (+9.6%): 206.56

Open to requests for other symbols.

UBER rolling continues

#Earnings BTC $UBER June 21st 40/46 strangles for .15. Sold for 1.05 on June 5th, as a roll from busted earnings trade.

#Rolling again: Sold $UBER July 12th 42/48 strangles for 1.25. Only partial fill, may have to lower to 1.20.

ORCL earnings analysis

#Earnings $ORCL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 14, 2019 AC -0.20%
Dec. 17, 2018 AC +0.26%
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -0.30%
June 19, 2018 AC -7.45%
March 19, 2018 AC -9.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 14, 2017 AC -3.76%
Sept. 14, 2017 AC -7.67%
June 21, 2017 AC +8.56% Biggest UP
March 15, 2017 AC +6.22%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -4.30%
Sept. 15, 2016 AC -4.74%
June 16, 2016 AC +2.69%

Avg (+ or -) 4.63%
Bias -1.68%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 52.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 49.84 to 55.16
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 50.07 to 54.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.4%): 47.55 to 57.45
Based on UP Max only (+8.6%): 56.99

Open to requests for other symbols.