LOW earnings analysis

#Earnings $LOW reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 27, 2019 BO +2.46%
Nov. 20, 2018 BO -5.65%
Aug. 22, 2018 BO +5.79%
May 23, 2018 BO +10.42% Biggest UP
Feb. 28, 2018 BO -6.47% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -1.06%
Aug. 23, 2017 BO -3.70%
May 24, 2017 BO -3.02%
March 1, 2017 BO +9.51%
Nov. 16, 2016 BO -2.93%
Aug. 17, 2016 BO -5.64%
May 18, 2016 BO +3.32%

Avg (+ or -) 5.00%
Bias 0.25%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 109.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 103.05 to 114.95
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 103.55 to 114.45
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.4%): 97.64 to 120.36
Based on DOWN Max only (-6.5%): 101.95

Open to requests for other symbols.

HD earnings analysis — INTERESTING

This is the first time I remember seeing this, but the expected move is LESS than the 12-quarter historical move MAXIMUMS. $HD has moved very little on recent earnings, but current IV projects it to move more than it has since Nov 2015.

#Earnings $HD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 26, 2019 BO -0.88%
Nov. 13, 2018 BO -0.23%
Aug. 14, 2018 BO -0.53%
May 15, 2018 BO -1.62%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -0.13%
Nov. 14, 2017 BO +1.63% Biggest UP
Aug. 15, 2017 BO -2.65% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2017 BO +0.59%
Feb. 21, 2017 BO +1.41%
Nov. 15, 2016 BO -2.56%
Aug. 16, 2016 BO -0.60%
May 17, 2016 BO -2.46%

Avg (+ or -) 1.27%
Bias -0.67%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 192.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 185.43 to 198.57
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 189.55 to 194.45
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (2.7%): 186.91 to 197.09
Based on UP Max only (+1.6%): 195.13

Open to requests for other symbols.

AZO earnings analysis

#Earnings $AZO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 26, 2019 BO +5.10%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO +6.74% Biggest UP
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06%
Dec. 5, 2017 BO +0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -0.58%
Dec. 6, 2016 BO +0.43%
Sept. 22, 2016 BO -0.42%
May 24, 2016 BO +2.47%

Avg (+ or -) 4.63%
Bias -2.10%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 985.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 925.51 to 1,044.49
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 939.44 to 1,030.56
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 868.38 to 1,101.62
Based on UP Max only (+6.7%): 1,051.39

Open to requests for other symbols.

NVDA flushed

#Earnings So the trade headline killed my trade… as usual, legging out is a very bad idea for me. Some accounts now have a loss in this trade, while others will breakeven.

Sold $NVDA long 155 calls for 1.48.

NVDA still closing

#Earnings On this minor dip I bought to close all of the short 160 calls for .46. Now I will wait for a drift higher to sell the long 155 calls, and get a few cents for the 162.5 calls as well.

Meanwhile, $DE trade was a miss, but a super cheap one. And I have 160 calls as a lottery ticket for next week.

NVDA closing

#Earnings Closed first few $NVDA 155/160/162.5 call #BrokenWingButterfly lots for 3.00. Bought yesterday for 1.49.

Since we are hovering around the center strike I will wait to try for higher prices on the remainder.

NVDA Earnings

#Earnings – Bought to Close NVDA MAY 17 2019 150.0 Put @ .06 (sold for 2.20)