SKX Earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizards – Playing this slightly to the downside with breakeven below the 50ma and just above the 200ma and slightly outside the expected move. No upside risk if it does breakout higher…

Sold SKX JUL 19 2019 31.0/35.0/36.0 Jade Lizards @ 1.20

HON closed, for real

#Earnings Sold to Close $HON Jul19/Jul26 172.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.38. Bought yesterday for .67.

SKX strangle

#Earnings Bought to Open $SKX July 19th 34.5/35 #LongStrangles for 4.38.

From current price at 34.75, I need a 13.6% move. Avg move on earnings has been 16.5%.

SKX earnings analysis

#Earnings $SKX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 18, 2019 BO -10.43%
Feb. 7, 2019 AC +15.19%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +13.78%
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +41.44% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC +0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%

Avg (+ or -) 16.55%
Bias -0.22%, no significant directional bias on earnings, just a big-move bias.

With stock at 34.35 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 30.07 to 38.63
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 28.67 to 40.03
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (41.4%): 20.12 to 48.58
Based on DOWN Max only (-27.0%): 25.06

Open to requests for other symbols.

SWKS

#Earnings – Careful with this one. I show earnings confirmed for Aug 7th. Not tonight…

HON mostly closed – NOT

#Earnings Sold to close $HON Jul19/Jul26 172.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.65. Bought yesterday for .67.

Filled on most of my order. Still a few out there but should fill when price meanders back toward my strike.

MSFT earnings analysis

#Earnings $MSFT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 24, 2019 AC +3.31%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -1.83% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +5.84%
July 19, 2018 AC +1.79%
April 26, 2018 AC +1.65%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -0.78%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +6.41% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC -0.57%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.27%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +2.34%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC +4.20%
July 19, 2016 AC +5.31%

Avg (+ or -) 2.86%
Bias 2.33%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 136.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 131.13 to 140.87
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 132.11 to 139.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.4%): 127.28 to 144.72
Based on DOWN Max only (-1.8%): 133.51

Open to requests for other symbols.