#earnings FDX Yesterday sold April…

#earnings FDX

Yesterday sold April 18, 160/202.50 strangle for 1.67, bought today for 1.12.

MU earnings analysis

#Earnings — $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 18, 2018 AC -7.91%
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC +0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC +8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%
March 23, 2017 AC +7.40%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC +12.68% Biggest UP
Oct. 4, 2016 AC -0.56%
June 30, 2016 AC -9.15% Biggest DOWN
March 30, 2016 AC -0.09%

Avg (+ or -) 5.59%
Bias -0.02%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 40.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 37.05 to 42.95
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 37.76 to 42.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.7%): 34.93 to 45.07
Based on DOWN max only (-9.2%): 36.34

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings FDX Sold April 18,…

#earnings FDX

Sold April 18, 160/202.5 strangle for 1.67, break-evens, 158/204 are pretty close to the max 1 day moves of 160/205. Thanks Jeff.

FDX earnings analysis

#Earnings — $FDX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 18, 2018 AC -12.16% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -5.53%
June 19, 2018 AC -2.69%
March 20, 2018 AC -1.17%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +3.51%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC +2.08%
June 20, 2017 AC +1.60%
March 21, 2017 AC +2.12%
Dec. 20, 2016 AC -3.33%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC +6.89%
June 21, 2016 AC -4.53%
March 16, 2016 AC +11.83% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 4.79%
Bias -0.12%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 183.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 172.73 to 193.27
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 174.24 to 191.76
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.2%): 160.75 to 205.25
Based on UP max only (+11.8%): 204.65

Open to requests for other symbols.

Final Trades and Expirations

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Sold to close $SFIX Mar 22nd 25 calls for 6.80. Waited since Wednesday for this to bounce meaningfully above 32.00, but it didn’t. So I lost a few extra cents on closing, since I covered the short puts and stock for 6.90.

Sold final batch of $ORCL 53 dub cals for .80. Also legged out of a couple to get .85 total. Never has there been a more perfect Friday for a double calendar. Bought for .23 & .24 yesterday.

Bought to close $INTC Mar 15th 50 #CoveredCalls for 4.30 to avoid assignment. Will replace with new calls or sell stock next week.

#OptionsExpiration
$AVGO 260/265/267.5 #BrokenWingButterfly (calls), exercising for 2.50 credit (bought for 1.70 yesterday).
$ADBE 245/250/280/285 condors, sold for 1.12 yesterday.
$SPX 2755/2775-2835/2855 condors, sold yesterday for .75

ORCL starting to close

#Earnings Sold to close first batch of $ORCL Mar15/Mar22 53 #DoubleCalendar for .50. Watching for better exit on the next batch. Bought yesterday for .23 and .24

OSTK earnings trade and analysis

#Earnings — $OSTK reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Thu 11/08/2018 AC -12.62%
Thu 08/09/2018 AC -14.77% Biggest DOWN
Tue 05/08/2018 AC -4.19%
Thu 03/15/2018 AC -3.63%
Wed 11/08/2017 AC +40.40% Biggest UP
Thu 08/03/2017 AC +6.99%
Thu 05/04/2017 AC -1.29%
Tue 01/31/2017 AC +1.20%
Thu 11/03/2016 AC +21.75%
Thu 08/04/2016 AC -0.74%
Tue 05/03/2016 AC +2.96%
Tue 02/09/2016 AC +30.59%

Avg (+ or -) 11.76%
Bias 5.55%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 20.25 the data suggests these ranges over FIVE days:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 16.43 to 24.07
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 17.87 to 22.63
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (40.4%): 12.07 to 28.43
Based on DOWN max only (-14.8%): 17.26

Open to requests for other symbols.