AVGO expires

#Earnings $AVGO Sept 13th 280/285-325/330 condors expired, sold yesterday for 1.02.

Have a good weekend all! Upside Warning hopefully will fire Monday… then will Fed really cut rates at all-time highs?

RH earnings trade closed

#Earnings. Sold to close $RH Sept 13th 157.5 calls for 16.00. #LongStrangles bought for 14.833 (avg price) on Tuesday. Small profit this time, but even if first day is minor this one tends to follow through almost every quarter.

AVGO trade

#Earnings Sold to Open $AVGO Sept 13th 280/285-325/350 condor for 1.02. Strikes are right around the max moves in each direction. I’m trying this despite the trouble on the June earnings report when it had its biggest down move. I was able to roll that one and get out with profit on the following week.

$RH update: Still holding out for some profit on my Long Strangle. Need to reach 173.50 to fill my order… almost got there this morning.

AVGO earnings analysis

#Earnings $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 13, 2019 AC -5.56% Biggest DOWN
March 14, 2019 AC +8.23%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC +0.58%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 0.00%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%
June 1, 2017 AC +8.49% Biggest UP
March 1, 2017 AC +0.99%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC +4.90%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -2.24%

Avg (+ or -) 4.14%
Bias 1.00%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 300.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 285.78 to 314.22
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 287.57 to 312.43
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.5%): 274.53 to 325.47
Based on DOWN max only (-5.6%): 283.32

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings #closing ANET August 1,…

#earnings #closing ANET

August 1, sold a 230/270/272.50 jade lizard with a long 210 put for protection, making it an iron condor. ANET dropped about 60 points over the next 2 weeks. I let the short call spread expire, rolled the put spread and sold another call spread. ANET is finally slightly over 240 today, closed the position for a gain.

RH trade

#Earnings. Bought to open $RH Sept 13th 155/157.5 strangle fo 14.60. This needs about a 10% move to breakeven, and it has done that or more 10 of the last 12 quarters. Still, it’s expensive so only a 1-l0t.

RH earnings analysis

#Earnings $RH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 12, 2019 AC +15.82%
March 28, 2019 AC -21.96%
Dec. 3, 2018 AC +10.90%
Sept. 4, 2018 AC -13.06%
June 11, 2018 AC +30.54%
March 27, 2018 AC +22.48%
Dec. 5, 2017 AC +0.79%
Sept. 6, 2017 AC +44.75% Biggest UP
June 1, 2017 AC -25.69% Biggest DOWN
March 28, 2017 AC +14.94%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC -18.13%
Sept. 8, 2016 AC +3.08%

Avg (+ or -) 18.51%
Bias 5.37%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 152.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 136.01 to 168.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 124.27 to 180.73
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.8%): 84.26 to 220.74
Based on DOWN max only (-25.7%): 113.32

Open to requests for other symbols.