ADBE earnings analysis

#Earnings $ADBE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 12, 2020 AC +17.71% Biggest UP
Dec. 12, 2019 AC +3.91%
Sept. 17, 2019 AC -1.74%
June 18, 2019 AC +5.21%
March 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -7.28% Buggest DOWN
Sept. 13, 2018 AC +2.29%
June 14, 2018 AC -2.43%
March 15, 2018 AC +3.05%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +1.43%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -4.24%
June 20, 2017 AC +2.36%

Avg (+ or -) 4.63%
Bias 1.36%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 400.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 382.20 to 417.80 (+/- 4.5%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 381.47 to 418.53
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.7%): 329.16 to 470.84
Based on DOWN max only (-7.3%): 370.88

Open to requests for other symbols.

DOCU Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings #OneNightStand – Good enough…

Bought to Close DOCU JUN 19 2020 125.0 Put @ .90 (sold for 2.60)

DOCU Earnings

#Earnings #ShortPuts – Going out to the monthlies for just a straight put sale…

Sold DOCU JUN 19 2020 125.0 Put @ 2.60

ZM Earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizards #OneNightStand – Closing the call side before it gets to max loss and letting the put side expire. Total profit of 7 cases of Coors Light. 🙂 🙂

Bought to Close ZM JUN 5 2020 197.5/200.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.80 (Lizard sold for 2.90)

ZM Earnings

#JadeLizards #Earnings – Going with the Lizard. Playing it to the downside with breakeven down by the 50 ma and slightly outside the expected move. No upside risk…

Sold ZM JUN 5 2020 170.0/197.5/200.0 Jade Lizard @ 2.90

NTAP earnings analysis

#Earnings $NTAP reports tonight. Options trades need to be placed today to capture any earnings move. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 12, 2020 AC -9.27%
Nov. 13, 2019 AC +3.17%
Aug. 14, 2019 AC +3.93%
May 22, 2019 AC -8.10%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -5.47%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC -11.72% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 15, 2018 AC -3.58%
May 23, 2018 AC +1.93%
Feb. 14, 2018 AC -4.89%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +15.91% Biggest UP
Aug. 16, 2017 AC -6.72%
May 24, 2017 AC +3.53%

Avg (+ or -) 6.52%
Bias -1.77%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 45.40 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 42.28 to 48.52 (+/- 6.9%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 42.44 to 48.36
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.9%): 38.18 to 52.62
Based on DOWN max only (-11.7%): 40.08

Open to requests for other symbols.

NVDA SPY TNA

#CoveredCalls #BullPutSpreads #Earnings

NVDA: Earnings down to the wire but went out worthless
MAY 22 2020 360.0/355.0 Bull Put Spread @ 2.65 (expired)

SPY: Down to the wire but had to roll (covered)
Rolled SPY MAY 22 2020 295.0 Call to MAY 27 2020 295.0 Call @ 2.20 credit (4.65 total now)

TNA: Rolled out a week and up a little (covered)
Rolled TNA MAY 22 2020 20.0 Calls to MAY 29 2020 20.5 Calls @ .12 credit

AZO earnings analysis

#Earnings $AZO reports Tuesday morning before the bell. Options trades need to be placed today to capture any earnings move. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 3, 2020 BO -2.11%
Dec. 10, 2019 BO +6.92% Biggest UP
Sept. 24, 2019 BO -4.41%
May 21, 2019 BO +5.56%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +5.10%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO +6.74%
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06%
Dec. 5, 2017 BO +0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 5.88%
Bias -1.76%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 1100.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1025.76 to 1174.24 (+/- 6.7%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1035.27 to 1164.73
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 969.76 to 1230.24
Based on UP max only (+6.9%): 1176.12

NOTE: 5-day historical maximums are +5.7 and -9.9%. So LESS than the one day moves on both sides, meaning the big one day moves were somewhat retraced 5 days after earnings.

Open to requests for other symbols.

EXPE closed

#Earnings Bought to close $EXPE May 22nd 79 calls for .10. 79/81 call spreads sold Wednesday for .90.

NVDA earnings analysis

#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 13, 2020 AC +7.02%
Nov. 14, 2019 AC -2.66%
Aug. 15, 2019 AC +7.25%
May 16, 2019 AC -2.28%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
May 9, 2017 AC +17.82% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 6.83%
Bias 0.82%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 356.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 330.23 to 381.77 (+/- 7.2%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 331.70 to 380.30
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.8%): 289.25 to 422.75
Based on UP max only (+17.8%): 419.44

Open to requests for other symbols.