ISRG

BTC $ISRG Dec 20 525/535 #BuPS @.20. Was STO 11/21 @1.49.

LULU

BTC Dec 20 2018 180/190 #BuPS @0.34. Sold 10/21 as 11.15 185/195 @1.39, rolled down to Dec 20 180/190 @.9. Overall 1.95 gain.

High FIVE

BTC $FIVE 100/110 Dec 06 #BuPS @0.05. STO yesterday @1.75.

Yes, I could have let it expire tomorrow, but I’d rather lock in the gain and get the margin back.

Thanks Jeff for Data!

FIVE earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $FIVE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 28, 2019 AC +6.27%
June 5, 2019 AC -1.00%
March 27, 2019 AC +8.15%
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -2.66%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC +21.86% Biggest UP
March 21, 2018 AC +4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45% Biggest DOWN
June 1, 2017 AC +0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC +10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC +9.87%

Avg (+ or -) 6.88%
Bias 5.62%, robustly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 117.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 107.13 to 126.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 108.95 to 125.05
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.9%): 91.42 to 142.58
Based on DOWN max only (-3.5%): 112.96

Open to requests for other symbols.

#bups

NUGT Puts Keep Rolling / BA ROKU Closed Early / TSLA BECS

#shortputs
$NUGT BTC 11/29 28 puts and STO 12/6 28 puts for added .35 credit.

#bups
$BA BTC 12/20 315/325 BUPS at .20. STO at 2.25 on 10/30
$ROKU BTC 12/20 105/115 BUPS at .20. STO at 2.80 on 11/7

#becs
$TSLA STO 12/20 360/370 BECS at 1.70

NOW

BTC $NOW 20-Dec 230/240 #BuPS @0.25. STO 8/15, with multiple adjustments. 5.53 loss.

CMG

BTC $CMG Nov 29 740/750 #BuPS @0.15. Was STO 11/22 @1.2.

Keeping an eye on Call side ($CMG Nov 29 795/805).