#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Nov 25th 3950/3970-4080/4100 condors, sold Wednesday for 1.00.
No trade for Monday as we start shooting and my access to trading will be limited for next three weeks.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 23rd 3920/3940-4065/4085 condors for 1.40, SPX at 4000, deltas -.08 +.05. IV 19.5%.
Bullish lean as tomorrow will likely melt upwards slowly.
Expiring: Nov 22nd 3870/3890-4010/4030 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 18th 3820/3840-4010/4030 condors for 1.15, SPX at 3933, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 25.7%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 17th 3860/3880-4040/4060 condors for 1.35, SPX at 3961, delta -.07 +.06, IV 24.4%
Expiring: Nov 16th 3895/3915-4050/4070 condors, sold this morning for 1.30
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 14th 3865/3885-4080/4100 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3995, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 17.34%
Expiring: Nov 11th 3865/3885-4040/4060 condors, sold this morning for 1.40.
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Nov 4th 3810/3830 call spreads for .80. Condors sold for 1.35 this morning.
My P/L chart looks like railroad tracks on a candle chart. Here are results of last 4 weeks:
The good news is I can identify two mistakes from this week that turned it sour. If it weren’t for my human mistakes, the strategy would be the problem.
I have been tracking paper results if I used a “no stop” strategy, and it officially pulled slightly ahead of my actual gains. Had I gone with no stops since May 16th, my profits would be 11.7% higher.
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 28th 3825/3845-3855/3875 condors for 16.50. Bought Tuesday for 17.75, so 1.25 loss. Not enough movement and too risky to hold until tomorrow.
1-dte trade to follow in comments.
#SPX5dte Bought to open $SPX Oct 28th 3825/3845-3855/3875 condors for 17.75. SPX was at 3838, these expire Friday so looking to be out by end of day Thursday.
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 25th 3640/3660-3670/3690 condors for 19.30. Bought for 17.75 on Thursday.
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Oct 25th 3640/3660-3670/3690 condors for 17.75. First one of these I’ve done in a few weeks because volatility has made them too expensive. Here I’m only going 3 trading days out (Tuesday) so I can keep price under 18.00.
1-dte trades to follow in comments
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Sept 27th 3750/3770-3780/3800 condors for 19.15. Bought for 17.80 on Thursday.
#SPX1dte Expiring: Sept 26th 3525/3550-3800/3825 condors, sold Friday for 1.40.
No trade placed for tomorrow due to insufficient premium to get safely OTM. Will consider a same-day trade in the morning.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 26th 3525/3550-3800/3825 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3691, IV 22.9%, deltas -.05 +.05. These are 25-points wide, as not all strikes available so low on the put side. Also went with 5 deltas rather than usual 6 for a bit more safety.
Total for week: +5.50
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Sept 27th 3750/3770-3780/3800 condors for 17.80, with SPX at 3786.
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Sept 20th 3895/3915-3925/3945 condors for 17.65, with SPX at 3919.
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX 3980/4000-4010/4030 condors for 18.00. Bought last week for 17.75. Tomorrow too unpredictable to hang on for more.
#SPX5dte Bought to open $SPX Sept 9th 3930/3950-3960/3980 condors for 17.85, when SPX was at 3900. I was trying to get filled on a long condor Friday but couldn’t get a fill below 18.00. In these volatile markets sometimes uncentered condors can fill for cheaper than a centered one.
#SPX5dte Sold to close HALF of my position: $SPX Sept 1st 4090/4110 call spreads for 1.75. This adds on to the sale of put spreads yesterday for 17.85.
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Sept 1st 4080/4060 put spreads for 17.85. Condors bought for 17.80 last Friday. So I’m breakeven now, holding calls until tomorrow in case we have any spike up in the morning.
#SPX1dte Sold to OPEN Aug 31st 3865/3885-4055/4075 condors for 1.50, SPX at 3980, IV 26.3%, deltas -.05 +.07
#SPX5dte After weeks of success I screwed up pretty badly today on this long condor. After missing the chance to exit on the big swings during Powell’s speech, I felt the action was bullish so wanted to exit the put spreads first. I did for 4.00 as it started down, but then it dropped WAY down. Now it looks like no bounce will come, or at least not one big enough to make the 4165/4185 call side profitable enough.
My recent strategy has been going well, using #SPX1dte as a base and then throwing in a long condor about once per week. However, I’m wary that the long strategy is inherently more risky. The best bet is to try to exit before expiration day, and indeed, today is the first week in awhile where I waited for expiration day. I did that because the week was pretty flat, giving me no obvious swings with which to exit.
During Powell’s speech, when we dropped, I set an order to sell the put spreads at 8.00. We had just hit about 8.50 so was trying to pick a bottom. Turns out I did pick it, but set my order a few seconds too late as the bounce began. Then we bounced way up and could have exited for 13.00 or more. That would have ended my day. But alas, now I’m pretty much screwed.
I don’t like relying on a strategy that is that fragile. The loss I’ll take today, as much as 13.75, is made up by the last few weeks of profit on this 5-dte trade, but it is a shame that my overall progress takes a big step back. So what I’ve determined is that I need to take a loss on the day before expiration if the SPX is still near the center of my condor. Typically, that would result in a 1.00 to 3.00 loss, which is completely acceptable. Going into expiration day could mean a big win, but only if you play the swings exactly right. So that risk of big loss is too great to risk.
#SPX5dte Bought to open $SPX Aug 26th 4135/4155-4165/4185 condors for 17.75, SPX at 4143.
Will add 1-dte trade to comments when I sell in a couple hours.
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Aug 17th 4260/4240 put spreads for 7.50. I’m sensing we will again test the 4280 level (or higher) so selling the put side now. Condors bought for 16.40 on Friday.
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Aug 17th 4240/4260-4270/4290 condors for 16.40, SPX at 4265.
#SPX5dte Sold to close HALF of my position, $SPX Aug 10th 4160/4180 call spreads for 12.00, at 7:44 PT when SPX was at 4182. Bought for 7.00 on Friday.
Planned to hold the rest for more, but then we dropped pretty sharply. Hope this isn’t another head-fake Upside Warning, but it definitely could be, given the uncertainty in the economy.
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Aug 10th 4160/4180 call spreads for 7.00.
Since an Upside Warning looks likely to fire at today’s close, I am going short-term bullish and only buying a call spread rather than a condor. I will look to close this Monday or Tuesday on any significant rise in SPX. The inflation number for July will be released on the 10th (Wednesday), so volatility should increase on these options and hopefully boost the price as well.
Current IV on the Aug 10th SPX option chain is 18.25%
#SPX5dte After the close, Sold to close $SPX Aug 5th 4130/4150 call spreads for 13.40. With puts closed this morning that’s 18.15 in total credit, so .95 profit on the trade. Didn’t want to risk overnight gap or jobs report before tomorrow’s open.
#SPX1dte Expiring: Aug 4th 4055/4075-4220/4240 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15.
Waiting for after jobs report to sell tomorrow’s 1-dte.
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Aug 5th 4120/4100 put spreads for 4.75. Condors bought for 17.20 on Monday. Looking for an afternoon rally higher so I can sell the call side before tomorrow’s job report.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 2nd 4015/4035-4185/4205 condors for 1.40, SPX at 4117, IV 21.75%, deltas -.06 +.06
Expiring worthless: Aug 1st 4025/4045-4175/4195 condors, sold this morning for 1.20.
#SPX5dte Expiring with max credit of 20.00: Aug 1st 4040/4060 call spreads. Put side sold for 1.25 on Friday. Condors bought for 17.25 on Wednesday, so 4.00 profit
#SPX1dte Came within a few pennies of my stop but I have to leave the computer so bought to close $SPX July 29th 4045/4065 call spreads for 1.75. Condors sold yesterday for 1.25
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Aug 1st 4030/4010 put spreads for 1.25. Waiting for call spreads. Condors bought for 17.25 on Wednesday.
#SPX5dte Bought to open $SPX Aug 1st 4010/4030/4040/4060 condors for 17.30. Volatility relaxed in last hour so price for ATM condors fell.
#SPX5dte Sold to close HALF of my July 22nd 3915/3895 put spreads for .50. Seeing if we might go lower for second half. This long condor already closed for profit on call side so just adding a few extra pennies.
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX July 22nd 3895/3915/3925/3945 condors for 17.45.
#SPX5dte Of course the first time I try this in months I’m at risk of a bad loss. Decided to sell the put side as action yesterday and overnight was bullish. But then news spiked futures higher and ended up chasing.
Sold to close $SPX 3810/3790 put spreads for 5.40. Condors bought for 17.85 on Tuesday.
Now watching the call side.
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX July 15th 3790/3810-3820/3840 condors for 17.85. SPX at 3814, expiry IV 32.1%
First time I have tried this in awhile after being forced to abandon it late last years after a string of losses. I first developed this trade in the high volatility of spring 2020. Lately we have been seeing fairly sharp swings over 4-5 day periods, and since I’m able to get this below 18.00 I’m taking a shot. Will likely wait for expiration, but may exit early if move is large before then.
#SPX1dte Expecting this morning’s trade to expire worthless.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX April 1st 4455/4475-4635/4655 condors for 1.20, SPX at 4560, IV 21.2%, deltas -.06 +.06
Expiring: March 31st 4490/4510-4660/4680 condors, sold yesterday for 1.375
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX March 31st 4555/4575 call spreads for 9.85. Condors bought for 16.90 on Monday. Puts sold for 1.30 yesterday. So loss of 5.75. What a disappointment. Another Upside Warning that has fizzled out immediately (last one was similar, from Dec 27th, but that time we at least got a few days before a drop). This trade looked like it would survive only a few minutes ago. I have been playing this strategy very conservatively and should have stuck to that approach and sold for 18.00 earlier in the hour.
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX March 31st 4545/4525 put spreads for 1.30. Condors bought for 16.90 on Monday. Looking for 20.00 max credit tomorrow on the 4555/4575 call spreads.
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX March 25th 4445/4465-4475/4495 condors for 17.60. Condors bought yesterday for 16.30. I got the move, so 1.30 profit is good for 24 hours rather than waiting for more at the risk of a chunky loss.
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX March 25th 4445/4465-4475/4495 condors for 16.30, with SPX at 4468.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 21st 4320/4340-4540/4560 condors for 1.60, SPX at 4461, IV 15.9%, deltas -.07 +.06
Expiring: March 18th 4270/4290-4490/4510 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.
Also expiring, ill-fated 4060/4040 bear put spread, when I foolishly thought we’d be headed down. Had I bought the same on call side it would be expiring for 20.00 today.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 22nd 4155/4175-4475/4495 condors for 1.80, SPX at 4356, IV 22.1%, deltas -.06 +.06
Expiring worthless: Feb 18th 4225/4245-4475/4495 condors, sold yesterday for 1.50.
#SPX5dte Expiring for max credit of 20.00: Feb 18th 4460/4440 put spreads. Condors bought for 17.50 on Tuesday.
#SPX5dte This is falling under my 5-dte hashtag, but it’s actually 3 trading days to expiry. Since we’re currently trading between 4500 and 4600 and not too close to either, I’m trying this one-off betting we won’t end Monday near here. Hopefully the market will love me on Valentine’s Day .
Bought to open $SPX Feb 14th 4540/4560-4570/4590 condors for 17.20, with SPX at 4567.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 26th 4155/4175-4500/4520 condors for 1.95, SPX at 4352, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 36.5%
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Jan 26th 4340/4360-4370/4390 condors for 18.00, with SPX at 4353.
This is under the “5dte” moniker but it’s only a one-day trade. Pretty good bet each day will swing us at least 20 points away, but I’m only comfortable doing it away from an even 100 multiple…. SPX closes (like yesterday) seem to gravitate toward 00’s.
#SPX1dte STOPPED Bought to close $SPX Jan 10th 4605/4585 put spreads for 6.75. Condors sold for 1.25 on Friday. My two month slide of misery continues. As I posted earlier the $VIX really has not spiked until today, meaning my condors have not been wide enough for this dropping market. Last week I stopped trading the #SPX5dte due to persistent losses, but the 1-dte trades have ALSO been failing at an usually bad rate lately.
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Jan 10th 4770/4750 put spreads for 17.40. Condors bought Tuesday for 16.20. Saving call spreads for any possible run up we get into Monday.
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Jan 7th 4790/4810 call spreads for .50. Sold puts for 16.00 yesterday so .55 profit on the condor.
#SPX1dte. It is absolutely crazy. As soon as I mention that the SPX1dte strategy is doing well, I get slapped across the face. Was away from my screen for the big drop, exited near the bottom, and now watching as we finally get a bounce. What a horrible stretch I am stuck in.
Bought to close $SPX Jan 5th 4740/4720 put spreads for 13.50. Condors sold yesterday for 1.30.
#SPX5dte, Well, since the day I posted my recent success with the strategy, it has basically been a disaster. In the almost two years since I started this, there has never been such a string of expirations that end in or near the dead zone. I have been hesitant to stop because I’m quite sure that as soon as I do, it will become viable again. But I really don’t have any choice now. I still have trades on for Friday and Monday, but I have to stop placing new ones. I’ll take some time to assess the results and the strategy as a whole.
I will continue to trade with #SPX1dte, as that strategy is doing fine, despite some recent losses due to my mistakes.
I know some of you have followed me on this strategy, but don’t post your experience. I would ask that if you are doing this, to please comment with your experiences and trades. If you have learned from me or anyone on this site, and have had success by following, I think it is only fair that you return the favor and share your experience.
I say this because I got an email from someone saying they had followed me on SPX5dte and found some success with certain adjustments… adjustments that I had not thought of or used. I asked him to please post in the room and share, but he disappeared.
So please, if you learn and make money from following us, share your experiences!
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Jan 5th 4795/4775 put spreads for 7.50. Saving call spreads.
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Jan 7th 4760/4780-4790/4810 condors for 15.95, with SPX at 4783.
#SPX1dte Stopped: Bought to close $SPX Dec 31st 4750/4730 put spreads for 1.00. Condors sold for 1.20 yesterday. Tried to play aggressive on this one but market drop and end of day spoiled the fun.
#SPX5dte Another let down in a long string of them… Upside Warning has stalled and not giving me a strong close for the 4785/4605 call side of today’s long condor. I’m watching. Closed the put side for 5.15 on Tuesday.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 31st 4730/4750-4835/4855 condor for 1.20, SPX at 4792, IV 9.9%, deltas -.12, +.06. Aggressive on the put side, although I’m not liking the drop a few seconds after the trade filled.
#SPX5dte Earlier: Bought to Open $SPX Jan 5th 4775/4795-4805/4825 condors for 15.40, with SPX at 4799.
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Jan 3rd 4760/4780-4790/4810 condors for 15.95, with SPX at 4785.
#SPX5dte Bought to open $SPX Dec 31st 4755/4775-4785/4805 condors for 15.60, with SPX at 4780.
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX 4560/4540 put spreads for .10. Taking downside risk off. Condors sold for 1.25 yesterday.
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 22nd 4695/4715 call spreads for .60. Added to the 19.00 I got from puts, that’s a 2.20 profit.
Bought to Open Dec 27th 4585/4605-4615/4635 condors for 17.60, with SPX at 4603.
#SPx1dte STOPPED: Bought to close $SPX Dec 20th 4525/4505 put spreads for 4.00. Condors sold for 1.65 on Friday.
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 17th 4685/4665 put spreads for 17.25. Bought for 17.00 on Monday, so barely above breakeven. I would normally wait for expiration, but can’t afford the risk after this brutal week for this strategy.
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Dec 22nd 4665/4685-4695/4715 condors for 17.40.
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 15th 4680/4700 call spreads for 1.00. Another one bites the dust. Condors bought for 17.35 last Thursday. Puts sold for 5.80 on Monday, so 6.80 total, loss of 10.55. I certainly have not been reading this market well for my leg outs.
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Dec 20th 4610/4630-4640/4660 condors for 17.90, with SPX at 4637.
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 13th 4685/4665 put spreads for 3.20. Looking for the afternoon bounce to collect on call side.
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Dec 15th 4645/4665-4675/4695 for 17.35.
Sold to close Dec 10th 4585/4605-4625/4645 condors for 18.60. Bought on Monday for 18.05. Market losing some stability so not going to risk going into the dead zone tomorrow.
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 8th 4570/4590-4600/4620 condors for 19.70. Condors Bought for 18.25 last Thursday, so 1.45 profit.
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Dec 13th 4665/4685-4695/4715 condors for 17.00, with SPX at 4689.
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Dec 10th 4585/4605-4615/4625 condors for 18.05, with SPX at 4609.
Looks like I made exactly the wrong move on Friday by selling the call side of today’s 5-dte. Psychology gets me on those decisions way too often…. VIX was soaring and market was down, so I assume the market will continue down. Instead, I should have looked at the decent premium available for the put side and taken it, risking a small loss, but with a good chance of making it a big win today if we bounced. That would have happened if I hadn’t made the wrong choice. Now I just have to look for a pullback into the close, which is certainly possible with current volatility, but looking unlikely with continuing strength in last couple of hours.
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 6th 4605/4625 call spreads for 2.55. Holding put spreads for Monday for hopeful max credit. A bit risky as we have been getting big bounces on this correction, but even if that happens Monday I still think it will be the put side where I get most profit. Condors bought for 18.05 on Tuesday.
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 3rd 4665/4645 put spreads for 18.20. Condors bought for 16.80 on Monday. Still holding call spreads.