YELP “double calendar”

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar in quotes because I placed them near the expected moves rather than ATM. So maybe call it #EMDC. YELP tends to move, but rather not risk the $4+ to buy a Straddle.

Bought $YELP Feb14/Feb21 39 #CallCalendar for .17
Bought $YELP Feb14/Feb21 31 #PutCalendar for .133

You may be able to get these a bit cheaper. I bid below mid-price and was filled instantly on both.

TAP dance

#Earnings . Bought to close $TAP Feb 14th 58 calls for .10. This will clear the way for a bigger profit if stock recovers. #DoubleCalendar bought yesterday for .17 and .20

TAP earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $TAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 30, 2019 BO -3.09%
July 31, 2019 BO -5.14%
May 1, 2019 BO -7.54%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO -9.44%
Oct. 31, 2018 BO +9.94% Biggest UP
Aug. 1, 2018 BO +3.47%
May 2, 2018 BO -15.40% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 BO +6.26%
Nov. 1, 2017 BO +0.21%
Aug. 2, 2017 BO +2.95%
May 4, 2017 BO +0.92%
Feb. 14, 2017 BO +3.41%

Avg (+ or -) 5.65%
Bias -1.12%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 58.35 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 54.76 to 61.94
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 55.05 to 61.65
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.4%): 49.36 to 67.34
Based on UP max only (+9.9%): 64.15

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalemdar, #doublecalendar

CTSH earnings analysis

#Earnings $CTSH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 30, 2019 AC +1.75%
July 31, 2019 AC +1.94%
May 2, 2019 AC -11.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2019 BO +4.62%
Oct. 30, 2018 BO -3.90%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO -6.37%
May 7, 2018 BO -5.24%
Feb. 7, 2018 BO +3.54%
Nov. 1, 2017 BO -2.81%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO +2.08%
May 5, 2017 BO +4.06%
Feb. 8, 2017 BO +4.94% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 4.36%
Bias -0.54%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 64.90 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 61.81 to 67.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 62.07 to 67.73
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 57.74 to 72.06
Based on UP max only (+4.9%): 68.11

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

LK Puts Rolled / TNDM Puts / NUGT Strangle / MCD DbCal

#shortputs
$LK BTC 1/31 44 puts and STO 2/21 40 puts at $2 debit but would cost me $4 less if assigned. Hoping the medical complex bests coronavirus soon. Or, someone discovers coffee inhibits the virus.
$TNDM STO 2/21 73.50 put at 2.25, Thank you @jsd501

#shortstrangles
$NUGT STO 2/21 31/36 at 2.78 The 36 call is covered

#doublecalendar #earnings
$MCD Closed three legs of trade guaranteeing .69 per contract profit. Remaining leg is the 2/7 long 212.50 put.
Thank you for the idea @jeffcp66 and for your cogent webinar on subject.

HSY closed

#Earnings STC $HSY Jan31/Feb07 150/152.5 #DoubleCalendar for .417. Bought yesterday for .69.

Jeff, what is the typical…

Jeff, what is the typical expected profit % on a DC?

#doublecalendar

HSY earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $HSY reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 24, 2019 BO -2.23%
July 25, 2019 BO +2.01%
April 25, 2019 BO +4.58%
Jan. 31, 2019 BO +0.49%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -4.92%
July 26, 2018 BO +7.35% Biggest UP
April 26, 2018 BO -0.26%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.94% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 26, 2017 BO -5.27%
July 26, 2017 BO -1.34%
April 26, 2017 BO -0.88%
Feb. 3, 2017 BO +1.31%

Avg (+ or -) 3.05%
Bias -0.43%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 151.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 145.75 to 157.25
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 146.88 to 156.12
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.4%): 140.36 to 162.64
Based on DOWN max only (-5.9%): 142.50

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

MCD closed

#Earnings It’s going in the wrong direction, so gotta close.

Sold to close $MCD Jan31/Feb07 212.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.151 (avg price). Bought yesterday for .839

MCD earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $MCD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 22, 2019 BO -5.04% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2019 BO +0.53%
April 30, 2019 BO +0.22%
Jan. 30, 2019 BO -0.21%
Oct. 23, 2018 BO +6.31% Biggest UP
July 26, 2018 BO -1.73%
April 30, 2018 BO +5.77%
Jan. 30, 2018 BO -2.97%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO +0.33%
July 25, 2017 BO +4.75%
April 25, 2017 BO +5.56%
Jan. 23, 2017 BO -0.71%

Avg (+ or -) 2.84%
Bias 1.07%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 212.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 205.74 to 218.26
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 205.97 to 218.03
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.3%): 198.62 to 225.38
Based on DOWN max only (-5.0%): 201.32

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar