SPX 1-dte & expirations

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 18th 3295/3315-3410/3430 condors for 1.05, IV 7.86%, SPX 3372, deltas -.07, +.06.

Winners:
Expiring: Feb 14th 3310/3330-3405/3425 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05
Expiring: $SHOP Feb 14th 465/460 put spreads, sold Tuesday for 1.416

Losers:
Expiring: $YELP 31 short puts and 39 short calls. Calendars bought for .303 total…. long positions remain for next Friday, but a long shot.
$TAP #DoubleCalendars closed for .01 debit. Lost total of .31.

Closing CTSH

#Earnings Sold to close $CTSH Feb07/Feb14 65 call calendars for .02. #DoubleCalendars bought for .28 on Wednesday. Long puts will be lottery ticket for next week.

EA closed

#Earnings Sold to close $EA Nov01/Nov08 90.5 #DoubleCalendars for 1.19 & 1.20. Bought yesterday for .49 and .50.

HLF earnings analysis and trade

#Earnings $HLF reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 1, 2019 AC -6.77% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2019 AC -4.51%
Feb. 19, 2019 AC -2.01%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC -2.61%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +13.03% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 AC +4.47%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC +3.00%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -2.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC -1.95%
May 4, 2017 AC +11.57%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -4.51%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -6.19%

Avg (+ or -) 5.30%
Bias 0.05%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 40.40 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 36.92 to 43.88
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 38.26 to 42.54
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.0%): 35.14 to 45.66
Based on DOWN max only (-6.8%): 37.66

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar, #doublecalendars

DAL earnings analysis

#Earnings $DAL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 11, 2019 BO +1.16%
April 10, 2019 BO +1.59%
Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.16%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO +3.56%
July 12, 2018 BO +1.78%
April 12, 2018 BO +2.93%
Jan. 11, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
Oct. 11, 2017 BO +0.70%
July 13, 2017 BO -1.76% Biggest DOWN
April 12, 2017 BO -0.52%
Jan. 12, 2017 BO -1.06%
Oct. 13, 2016 BO +1.88%

Avg (+ or -) 1.82%
Bias 1.27%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 54.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 51.16 to 56.84
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 53.02 to 54.98
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.8%): 51.43 to 56.57
Based on DOWN max only (-1.8%): 53.05

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar, #doublecalendars

EFX closed

#Earnings Sold to close $EFX Jul26/Aug02 140 #DoubleCalendar for .70-.74. Could have gotten more now that it has dropped sharply. Bought yesterday for .55.

#doublecalendars

SPX 1-dte update

#SPX1dte Closed $SPX April 1st 2740/2720 put spreads for .10. Sold as part of condor yesterday… condor for 1.00, put side was .41 of that.

#doublecalendar, #doublecalendars