#fallingknife PLAY is down 22%

#fallingknife
PLAY is down 22%

IRBT Sep

Filled at the bell as the stock took a dive into the close.
Sold $IRBT 9/20 60 puts @ 1.20.
#FallingKnife

SIG earnings analysis

#Earnings $SIG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

I have never traded this, but it is a big mover

Dec. 6, 2018 BO -18.04%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO +23.84% Biggest UP
June 6, 2018 BO +18.39%
March 14, 2018 BO -20.22%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -30.39% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +16.66%
May 25, 2017 BO -7.75%
March 9, 2017 BO +8.72%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +2.14%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -12.62%
May 26, 2016 BO -10.49%
March 24, 2016 BO +2.88%

Avg (+ or -) 14.35%
Bias -2.24%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 27.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 23.31 to 31.69
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 23.56 to 31.44
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (30.4%): 19.14 to 35.86
Based on UP max only (+23.8%): 34.06

Open to requests for other symbols.

#fallingknife

#fallingknife STO RH Jan17’20 70…

#fallingknife
STO RH Jan17’20 70 PUT $6.40

BIIB

#FallingKnife – No position here (remember Valeant and Mylan?)…I’ll see where it is when they add some more strikes in May. Earnings April 24th…

#coveredcallcampaign NTGR In early February…

#coveredcallcampaign NTGR

In early February I was assigned from a Dec. put that was sold in July as a #fallingknife. The cost basis was down to 36.95, sold an April 19, 36 call for 1.25.

ROKU

#ShortPuts #FallingKnife – Starter position just before next earnings…

Sold 1 ROKU APR 26 2019 50 Put @ 1.35