SPX trades

#SPX1dte STOPPED Bought to close $SPX Dec 1st 4655/4675 call spreads for 2.10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.35

SPX trades

#SPX1dte STOPPED Bought to close $SPX Nov 30th 4600/4580 put spreads for 2.50. Condors sold yesterday for 1.35.

#spx5dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Dec 3rd 4645/4665-4675/4695 condors for 16.80, with SPX at 4668.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 29th 4420/4440-4700/4720 condors for 1.15, SPX at 4614, IV 18.7%, deltas -.07 +.06. My put side dropped 190 points from today’s expiry!

Very foolish not to close today’s 4630/4610 put spread at the open, when it got down to 4.00. I was looking to close then, but reversal happened too fast on me then I took a huge dose of hopium. Now I’m looking for SPX to recover more in this final half hour to minimize (or fingers crossed, eliminate) my losses.

#SPX5dte Expected to expire with max profit of 20.00: Nov 26th 4700/4680 put spreads, bought last Friday for 15.70, so 4.30 profit.

Upside Warning FIRMLY canceled

#VIXIndicator Pre-market $VIX high of 28.02. All we needed for cancelation was 22.10.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX 4695/4675 put spreads for 8.35. Calls sold yesterday for 3.00 so 11.35 total. Condors bought for 15.40 last Thursday so 4.05 loss.

These consolidation periods make this strategy more difficult.

#SPX1dte – I forgot to sell one yesterday, but will today for Friday expiration.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 24th 4705/4725 call spreads for 3.00. Saving put spreads for later. I rarely sell call spreads first as this market relentlessly surprises to the upside. But I feel we’ll have another leg lower, at least today. Condors bought for 15.40 last Thursday.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 22nd 4720/4740 call spreads for 7.70. Put side sold for 8.20 on Friday, so 15.90 total credit. Condors bought for 15.05 last Tuesday so .85 profit. I wanted to try to ride this higher but I got filled before I could adjust my limit.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 22nd 4710/4690 put spreads for 8.20. Call side holding for later today or Monday. Condors bought for 15.05 on Tuesday.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 19th 4670/4650 put spreads for 3.20. I think the bias is to upside but got caught in the huge spike without enough time to alter my bid. Now I need a decent recovery into tomorrow’s close to collect on the call side. Condors bought for 15.45 on Monday.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 17th 4655/4675 call spreads for 19.00. Condors bought for 16.25 last Thursday.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Nov 22nd 4690/4710-4720/4740 condors for 15.05, with SPX at 4714.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 15th 4675/4655 put spreads for 4.30. Unfortunately still holding call spreads as I missed my fills on the earlier spikes higher. These mornings are crucial to manage properly to keep this strategy robust. When we are opening so near the dead zone, I need to take advantage of the morning swings and make sure to get filled.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 12th 4705/4725 call spreads for .50. Increased my profit on the condor to 3.50…

…But it also means my #SPX1dte is being stopped out. Looking for an exit on pullback.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Nov 17th 4625/4645-4655/4675 condors for 16.25, with SPX at 4651.

#spx1dte

VXX adding

#VXXGame My only trade going other than SPX: Bought more $VXX June 2022 10 puts for .30. Adds to the position, now at 0.323 average price. Also have January 2023 10 puts purchased for avg 1.008.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 10th 4680/4700 call spreads for 5.50. Puts sold yesterday for 3.50, so 9.00, and loss of 6.45 total.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 10th 4670/4650 put spreads for 3.50. Saving 4680/4700 call spreads for now. Condors bought for 15.45 last Thursday.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Nov 12th 4675/4695-4705/4725 condors for 15.25, With SPX at 4700.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte STOPPED, Bought to close $SPX Nov 5th 4595/4615 call spreads for 2.50. Condors sold yesterday for .95. Stop really was hit in pre-market when I should have exited, but fortunately we have faded from the highs so my loss is bearable.

#spx5dte

SPX7dte/5dte Results

#SPX5dte (formerly #SPX7dteLong) I started this during the depths of the pandmeic-panic in April 2020. I was getting blown out on my #SPX1dte strategy with gap opens that hadn’t happened in years, and I realized it was pretty much guaranteed that the market would move more than 20 points each week. I stuck with it and it turns out it has been a workable strategy even in quieter times. After a weaker performance in Jan-Jun 2021, I started being more active with exits, rather than waiting for expiration. That as helped and you can see the trend improving in recent months. Happy to answer questions, and I can provide more details in the coming weeks.

The chart is tracking PER OPTION gains and losses, so does not account for quantities. Currently, for every $15,000 in each account, I am buying 1 condor per expiry in this strategy, and simultaneously 1 condor per expiry in my #SPX1dte strategy. So for this strategy from April 2020 to present I have made 10K for every 15K in each account.

Screen Shot 2021-11-05 at 7.23.39 AM

October Jobs Report

#Jobs — After two months below, October was ABOVE expectations. Additionally, 235K were added in prior-month revisions.

Gain of +531,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 450K.
Unemployment at 4.6%, down by 0.2
U6 unemployment at 8.3%, down by 0.2
Labor force participation 61.6%, unchanged
Average hourly earnings up 0.4%, or 4.9% year over year

September jobs revised up by +118K to +312K
August jobs revised up by +117K to +483K

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Nov 10th 4650/4670-4680/4700 condors for 15.45, with SPX at 4674.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Expired with max credit of 20.00: $SPX Nov 3rd 4595/4615 call spreads. Put spreads sold for 1.60 on Tuesday, so 21.60 total credit. Condors bought for 15.90, so 5.70 profit.

#SPX1dte Expired worthless: Nov 3rd 4550/4570-4675/4695 condors, sold Tuesday for 1.45.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Nov 8th 4605/4625-4635/4655 condors for 16.20, with SPX at 4632.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Nov 5th 4580/4600-4610/4630 condors for 16.25, with SPX at 4607.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 1st 4515/4535-4640/4660 condors for .90, SPX at 4599, IV 7.2%, deltas -.06 +.06.

Expected to expire: Oct 29th 4515/4535-4630/4650 condors, sold yesterday for .85.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 29th 4575/4595 call spreads for 9.40. Puts sold yesterday for 5.80, so 15.20 total. Condors bought Monday for 14.55, so .65 profit. Pulling the plug early because of yesterday’s sell-off into the close.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 29th 4565/4545 put spreads for 5.80. Still holding 4575/4595 call side. Condors bought for 14.55 on Monday.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Order filled when $SPX was at about 4595: Sold to close Oct 27th 4540/4560 call spreads for 18.50. Puts sold for 3.35 yesterday, so 21.85 total, so 7.10 total profit.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte When $SPX was at 4551, sold to close Oct 27th 4530/4510 put spreads for 3.35. Still holding 4540/4560 call side. Condors bought for 14.75 on Thursday.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 25th 4515/4395 put spreads for 2.00. Holding calls for now. Condors bought for 14.85 on Monday.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Oct 27th 4510/4530-4540/4560 condors for 14.75, with SPX at 4536.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

Expired yesterday:
#SPX5dte Expired with max credit of 20.00: Oct 20th 4445/4465 call spreads, sold last Thursday for 15.75.

#SPX1dte Expired worthless: Oct 20th 4450/4470-4550/4570 condors , sold Tuesday for 1.00.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Oct 25th 4495/4515-4525/4545 condors for 14.85, with SPX at 4516.

#spx1dte

Upside Warning in effect

#VIXIndicator Feels like it’s a few days late but it still should mean more upside in the coming days or weeks.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Officially changing the name of my long trade to #SPX5dte from the gangly and inaccurate #SPX7dteLong.

Bought to Open $SPX Oct 22nd 4460/4480-4490/4510 condors for 14.85, with SPX at 4483.

Expiring with max credit of 20.00: Oct 18th 4365/4385 call spreads. Condors bought for 17.30 last Tuesday.

#SPX1dte Expiring worthless: Oct 18th 4380/4400-4515/4535 condors, sold Friday for 1.05.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 18th 4380/4400-4515/4535 condors for 1.05, SPX at 4468, IV 8.6%, deltas -.07 +.07

Expiring: Oct 15th 4345/4365-4485/4505 condors, sold yesterday for .95

#SPX5dte Expiring at max credit of 20.00: Oct 15th 4385/4405 call spreads, bought Monday for 17.20. Puts sold yesterday for .80, so total profit of 3.60.

Officially changing the name of my long trade to #SPX5dte from the gangly and inaccurate #SPX7dteLong.

Downside Warning canceled

#VIXindicator So we never got much of a drop but it certainly was choppy for a few weeks. $VIX closes tomorrow and Monday below 18.49 will mean an Upside Warning.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX 4415/4435-4445/4465 condors for 15.75, with SPX at 4438.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Oct 13th 4415/4395 put spreads for 16.75. Still holding call side. Condors bought for 16.85 last Thursday. In the recent volatility I have been letting these expire, but after yesterday’s drubbing I need to return to closing these on swings.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Oct 15th 4355/4375-4385/4405 condors for 17.20, with SPX at 4384.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 11th 4290/4310-4450/4470 condors for 1.20, SPX at 4396, IV 10.5%, deltas -.06 +.06

Expiring: Oct 8th 4310/4330-4465/4485 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10

#SPX7dteLong Expiring with max credit of 20.00: Oct 8th 4300/4320 call spreads. Condors bought Monday for 17.90.

September Jobs Report

#Jobs — Second month in a row below expectations, lowest increase of the year

Gain of +194,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 500K.
Unemployment at 4.8%, down by 0.4
U6 unemployment at 8.5%, down by 0.3
Labor force participation 61.6%, down by 0.1%
Average hourly earnings up 0.6% vs expected .4%

August jobs revised up by +131K to +366K
July jobs revised up by +38K to +1.091M

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Earlier: Bought to Open Oct 13th 4395/4415-4425/4435 condors for 16.85, with SPX at 4418.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 8th 4310/4330-4465/4485 condors for 1.10, SPX at 4410, IV 13.4%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Oct 6th 4340/4320 put spreads for 10.90. Still holding call side for any additional bounce today. Condors bought for 17.90 last Thursday.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Oct 11th 4335/4355-4365/4385 condors for 17.40, with SPX at 4360.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Oct 8th 4270/4290-4300/4320 condors for 17.90, with SPX at 4292.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Oct 6th 4320/4340-4350/4370 condors for 17.90, with SPX at 4341

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to Close $SPX Oct 1st 4455/4475 call spreads for .70. Condors bought Monday for 15.25. Puts sold for 15.30. So .75 profit.

Expiring today worthless: Sep 29th 4470/4490 call spreads. Condors bought for 15.95 last Thursday. Put side sold for 9.20 on Monday, so 6.75 loss.

#spx1dte

Downside Warning is already back!

#VIXindicator

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Oct 1 4445/4425 put spreads for 15.30. Condors bought for 15.25 yesterday. This is a breakeven move, but I still hold the call spreads until Friday. So any meaningful bounce, even today, will give me profit.

#spx1dte

This is what the DW is meant for…

….too bad it got canceled on Friday. This has been the Summer of Swings for the #VIXindicator.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 29th 4460/4440 put spreads for 9.20. Still have the call side for two more days. Bought condors for 15.95 on Thursday.

#spx1dte

Downside Warning canceled

#VIXindicator Another dud. This is becoming less reliable… need to find another signal to go with the $VIX highs that would indicate a more likely chance of downside follow through.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 27th 4355/4375-4500/4520 condors for 1.20, SPX at 4458, IV 9.2%, deltas -.06 +.09

Expiring: Sep 24th 4355/4375-4495/4515 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05

#SPX7dteLong Expiring at max credit of 20.00: Sep 24th 4330/4350 call spreads. Condors bought Monday for 18.20.

SPX trades

#SPX7dte Bought to Open $SPX 4440/4460-4470/4490 condors for 15.95, with SPX at 4465.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 4355/4375-4495/4515 condors for 1.05, with SPX at 4448, IV 11.9%, deltas -.06 +.07

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 22 4415/4435-4445/4465 condors for 15.35. Bought for 17.05 last Thursday, so loss of 1.70. There’s too much risk of a face-ripping event after Fed announcement, so I had to take this off rather than wait for the close.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Sep 27th 4340/4360-4370/4390 condors for 18.00, with SPX at 4365.

#spx1dte

Downside Warning in effect

#VIXindicator Let’s see if this one has more depth than the recent head fakes we’ve been getting.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Woke up at 4:30 to close put side: Bought to close $SPX Sep 20th 4330/4310 put spreads for 3.20. Condors sold for 1.05 on Friday. Looks like it would have been better to wait for the open, but market was falling all night.

#spx7dtelong

Upside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator $VIX finally showed some gumption this morning. Likely downside warning coming at the close.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 17th 4445/4425 put spread for 3.50. I’m kind of back on the bullish train, since the VIX has been tepid, but even so I sold this too early and we are dropping more.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

Yesterday:
#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX Sep 17 4425/4445-4455/4475 condors for 17.10.
#SPX1dte Expired: Sep 13th 4370/4390-4525/4545 condors, sold Friday for 1.00.

Today:
Sold to close Sep 15th 4505/4525 call spreads for 2.50. Sold put side for 12.40 yesterday, so total. Bought for 16.10 last Thursday so 14.90 total, loss of 1.20.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 15th 4490/4470 put spreads for 12.40. Condors bought for 16.10 last Thursday. Call spreads still open. Uncertain where we are headed; Upside Warning still in effect but we’ve had several days of weakness.

SPX trades

#SPX7dtelong In pre-market, sold to close $SPX Sep 13th 4515/4535 call spreads for 8.00. Sold puts yesterday for 8.25, so 16.25 total. Condors bought for 14.70 on Wednesday, so 1.55 in profit.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 10th 4525/4505 put spreads for 5.00. Leaving call spreads for more upside.

Made the mistake of getting spooked by yesterday’s drop, and did not sell this put side then. I should have heeded the Upside Warning and closed it. But hopefully we can revisit the highs around 4545 tomorrow.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Sep 13th 4485/4505-4515/4535 condors for 14.70, with SPX at 4511.

Today’s 4535/4555 call spread will expire worthless, leaving me only with the 8.00 credit I got for the put side yesterday. Bought for 14.55 last Thursday so 6.55 loss.

#SPX1dte Expected to expire worthless: $SPX Sep 8th 4460/4480-4550/4570 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 8th 4525/4505 put spreads for 8.00. Saving call spreads for the hopeful bounce.

I was travelling last week so was unable to post. For the condor expiring today:
Purchased last Tuesday for 14.30
Sold put side on Thursday for 5.25
Sold call side Friday for 12.00
Total profit: 2.95

#spx1dte

August Jobs Report

#Jobs — August dips, way below expectations

Gain of +235,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 720K.
Unemployment at 5.2%, down by 0.3
U6 unemployment at 8.9%, down by 0.3
Labor force participation 61.7%, unchanged
Wages up 4.3% year over year

July jobs revised up by +110K to +1.053M
June jobs revised up by +24K to +962K

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 3rd 4535/4555 call spreads for 10.50. Put side sold for 8.00 on Tuesday. Condors bought for 13.75 so total profit of 4.75.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 3rd 4525/4505 put spreads for 8.00. Condors bought yesterday for 13.75.

This strategy has been working much better if I leg out on the swings. When I started it during the pandemic in 2020, the market was moving pretty big, so I could wait for expiration day and usually get the full 20.00. If I exited one side early, there was too much risk it would keep going in that direction. But now with volatility lower, using the swings is a better bet… especially with an Upside Warning and (economic recovery) giving me confidence that dips are short-lived.

SPX new trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX Sep 3rd 4505/4525-4535/4555 condors for 13.70, with SPX at 4534.

SPX trades

#SPX7dte Sold to close $SPX Aug 30th 4500/4520 call spreads for 17.50. Put side sold Thursday for 8.25, so 25.75 total credit. Condors bought for 14.20 last Tuesday so 11.55 total profit.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 27th 4485/4505 call spreads for 17.60. Put side sold for 2.75 yesterday so 20.35 total credit. Condors bought for 14.20 on Monday, so 6.15 profit.

#spx1dte