#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 6th 4215/4235-4310/4330 condors for .90, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 19.3%.
The IV for today’s chain was only 12.9% before the close yesterday. That extra IV that comes in overnight is why these morning trades have been the better bet. But now that the market isn’t swinging much overnight the choice is tougher. For the same premium 15 minutes before yesterday’s close, I could have gotten 5 more points on put side and 10 more on call side (-.06 +.06 deltas)
#VIXindicator An Upside Warning went into effect at the close on Monday, meaning probable upside to the market in coming days or weeks. This one comes after the previous UpW was canceled on May 2nd, but no Downside Warning resulted. The market chopped around for a month but stayed fairly strong.
#SPX1dte Today’s same-day trade expiring, sold this morning for 1.05. It still looks like a better bet to sell in the morning, as afternoon trades give slightly LESS premium per delta, and only 5 to 10 points of extra width.
#SPX1dte Adding a longer term bullish position:
Sold to open $SPX Jun 16th 4075/4055 put spreads
Bought to open $SPX Jun 16th 4450/4470 call spreads
Net DEBIT .30
I’ll use expected move for the put side stop-out, which is currently 91 points, so SPX 4166. I’ll look for 5.00 or more if we fly up this week, but lower my goal if we stall out or rise slowly.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 5th 4220/4240-4320/4340 condors for 1.05, deltas -.07 +.07, IV 19.8%
#SPX1dte Sold to close the remaining call spreads for 5.00 and 6.00, with a few contracts expiring for 0.00. My main account saw composite profit of 2.78 on the trade.
Tough decisions being long when high of day and close are ATM. Obviously sold the first half too cheaply but you can only say that in hindsight. I have tried these trades many times and this is a rare time I was correct about the move and how far it would go.
#SPX1dte Sold to close HALF my long call spreads for 2.20. This locks in +.95 of profit on the whole trade. I’m going to give it time now to see if we can reach the 4285 short strike.
#Jobs — Higher than expected again. And a gain of +94K in prior month revisions.
Gain of +339,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 190K
Unemployment up by 0.3 to 3.7%, higher than expected gain to 3.5%
U6 unemployment 6.7%, up by 0.1
Labor force participation 62.6%, unchanged
Average hourly earnings up by 0.3%; 4.3% increase over the year, 0.1 less than expected.
March jobs revised up by +53K to +217K
April jobs revised up by +41K to +294K
#SPX1dte After losing the week’s profits yesterday on the rip higher, I’m taking a shot today that the jobs report will release us to go even higher, now that debt ceiling is resolved. Went with #RiskReversal for upside.
Sold to Open $SPX June 2nd 4185/4165 put spreads
Bought to open $SPX June 2nd 4285/4305 call spreads
Total DEBIT -0.15
deltas -.07 +.05
#SPX1dte BTC call side for 2.00
Pretty deep dip in $VIX happening, could finally be the push higher that debt ceiling resolution will trigger.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 1st 4120/4140-4225/4245 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.07
#SPX1dte BTC put side for .10.
In other news, the long call spread I bought last week is at zilch. Best chance to sell was yesterday morning, but I was holding out for a bit more. Knocks 90 cents off my week.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 31st 4120/4140-4240/4260 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX May 30th 4150/4170-4270/4290 condors, sold this morning for 1.15
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 30th 4150/4170-4270/4290 condors for 1.15, delta -.07 +.06
#SPX1dte BTC call side for 1.70.
That drops weekly profit to be only 2.05. But breaks my 4-week losing streak. I guess the claw back will be slow and long.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 26th 4075/4095-4205/4225 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 27.7%
#SPX1dte BTC call side for .10
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 25th 4060/4080-4195/4215 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 28.4%
#SPX1dte BTC puts for .15. I’m sticking with morning trades at least until debt ceiling talks either crash or spike the market.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 24th 4060/4080-4185/4205 condors for 1.10, deltas -.06 +.06.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX May 23rd 4145/4125 put spreads for 1.40. Condors opened this morning for 1.35, so with call closure loss is -.15 for the day.
I may have to even get tighter with risk-off closures. I was going for .10 but could have closed for .20.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX May 23rd 4225/4245 call spreads for .10. Order in to close puts for same.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 23rd 4125/4145-4225/4245 condors for 1.35, deltas -.08 +.08
#SPX1dte Bought to open $SPX June 2nd 4330/4350 call spreads for .90. I want to add occasional long spreads to hedge the gut punch this strategy can deliver. This one is speculation that a debt ceiling deal will be reached this week and give us short-term pop higher.
Here is the 30-minute chart of the entire history of $VIX1D. Starts low and ends high every single day except for one.
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX May 22nd 4235/4255 call spreads for .10. Same order is in for the puts.
Another day of whipsaw, although manageable. Until debt ceiling issue is resolved, I’m taking safest route possible and closing wings when i can.
#SPX1dte Sol to Open $SPOX May 22nd 4135/4155-4235/4255 condors for 1.05, deltas -.08 +.06
#SPX1dte Well, wrong again, and a fourth week of losses. I still have a long shot to make some money on the long call spread but looking pretty doubtful.
Bought to close $SPX May 19th 4175/4155 put spreads for 2.40.
I’m frankly stunned at how difficult this became compared to the first quarter of the year.
#SPX1dte #RiskReversal Yesterday we got our first $VIX close of three needed to trigger a new Upside Warning. So after getting stopped out of short call spread at the close, I am going bullish today.
Sold to Open $SPX May 19th 4175/4155 put spread for 1.15
Bought to open May 19th 4245/4265 call spreads for .95
Net credit: +.20
Looking to sell the first half for around 2.00 and then wait to see what happens for second half.
If I am wrong, then put side stop is currently at 4198.
#SPX1dte With approx 30 minutes left in session, sold to Open $SPX May 19th 4105/4125-4230/4350 condors for 1.10, deltas -.08 +.07.
Then, SPX erupted, topping out over 4200, forcing a stop of the call side. Closed for 1.50 shortly after the closing bell.
May look to add a new call side in the morning, either short or long.
#SPX1dte Another day, another stop-out. BTC $SPX 4195/4215 call spreads for 2.30. Condors sold this morning for 1.15.
The market is just not offering the condor-width or the premium for the level of swings we are seeing intraday. After placing this trade in pre-market, I was almost stopped out to DOWN side, then after the open we have swung all the way up to stop out on UP side.
I hope this is a temporary issue and that the next correction (or decent pullback) will put us back to where we’ve been for a few years now. As it stands now, I am stuck in an irreversible slump.
And as happened yesterday, right at the moment I determine I must not let the SPX go further against me and to bite the bullet, the reversal comes almost immediately.
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX May 18th 4100/4120-4195/4215 condors for 1.15, deltas -.08 +.08
#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX May 17th 4100/4120-4185/4205 condors, sold a couple hours earlier for .70
Waiting for morning for Thursday trade.
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX May 17th 4165/4185 call spreads for 2.20. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10. That makes me flat for the week, only two days to go. I have had three losing weeks in a row, let this not become a fourth.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 17th 4050/4070-4165/4185 condors for 1.10, SPX at 4125, deltas -.06 +.07
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX May 15th 4030/4050-4165/4185 condors, sold Friday for 1.10
Spread is cheap and narrow for tomorrow so I will wait to sell in the morning
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 15th 4030/4050-4165/4185 condors for 1.10, deltas -.06 +.06.
Sorry forgot to press “Post” on Friday.
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX May 12th 4070/4050 put spreads for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.05.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 12th 4050/4070-4175/4195 condors for 1.05, SPX at 4127, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX1dte Closed put side for .10.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 11th 4065/4085-4180/4200 condors for 1.15, delta -.07 +.06
#SPX1dte BTC put side for 6.55. I honestly have no excuse for this, so I won’t try to make one.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 10th 4200/4220 call spreads for .45, when delta was +.04.
Looking to sell the 4085/4065 put spreads.
Core CPI up 5.5%, year over year, as expected.
Non-core up 4.9%, vs 5.0% expected.
Up 0.4% in April.
#SPX1dte Expected to expire: $SPX May 9th 4070/4090-4160/4180 condors sold this morning for 1.30,
I will sell tomorrow after the CPI reaction settles in.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 9th 4070/4090-4160/4180 condors for 1.30, deltas -.08 +.09. Banking on another quiet day before CPI report, so deltas are both aggressive and width is only 70 points.
#SPX1dte Expected to expire: $SPX May 8th 4080/4100-4180/4200 condors, sold this morning for 1.10.
At 45 minutes before closing bell, the 6-delta condor for tomorrow was 95 points wide and worth about .90. Both numbers too low, so there seems to currently be no benefit in selling in afternoon. I will wait again for morning.
Then Wednesday morning before the bell we have the CPI report.
#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX May 8th 4080/4100-4180/4200 condors for 1.10, deltas -.09, +.06.
Going one strike more aggressive on put side after Friday’s rally.
#SPX1dte After only a couple days of decent width (155 points for today’s trade, which got stopped out anyway), it’s pretty frustrating to see only a 110 pt spread for a weekend trade. I’m not going to do it. I will sell Monday morning.
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX May 5th 3985/3965 put spreads for .05. Call side flirting with my stop point so I’m watching.
#Jobs — Higher than expected, record low UE, lost -149K on prior month revisions.
Gain of +253,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 180K
Unemployment down by 0.1 to 3.4%, tied for lowest since 1969, vs. expected gain to 3.6%
U6 unemployment 6.6%, down by 0.1
Labor force participation 62.6%, same as last month
Average hourly earnings up by 0.5%; 4.4% increase over the year; both 0.2% than expected..
March jobs revised down by -71K to +165K
February jobs revised down by -78K to +248K
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 5th 3965/3985-4140/4160 condors for 1.30, deltas -.06 +.06
Width and premium have returned to this trade in recent days.
Expiring: May 4th 3990/4010-4160/4180 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 4th 3990/4010-4160/4180 condors for 1.15, delta -.06 +.05. Only partial fill so far.
#VIXindicator The Upside Warning, which went into effect on March 30th, was canceled today when $VIX spiked above 19.73, which is 25% above Friday’s close.
This UpW produced a 3.4% increase from the SPX close on March 30th to yesterday’s high of 4,186.93.
If we close with VIX above 19.73 it will mean a Downside Warning.
#SPX1dte. No, I didn’t get out. I was driving to work when this happened.
Obviously, I need to stop this tail spin. No trade for tomorrow anyway, due to Fed decision. But most likely I need to do two things: (1) get back to basics with condors, even if low premium, and (2) not trade if I can’t be by the computer all morning.
Something changed in the market and SPX options a couple weeks ago. It completely uprooted my strategy which had been going very strong since last summer. I clearly was not ready for that change. I was going on my first quarter mentality of “everything’s fine every day.” It was, and now it isn’t.
As for today, I’m only left to hope for a bounce. That probability is high enough to stop me from closing now for 15.00+.
And now a writers strike has hit Hollywood, so I’m also out of a job!
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 2nd 4135/4115 put spreads for .80. SPX at 4167, delta -.10.
After last week’s debacle and the persistency of narrow-width condors, I legged in today and am doing this tomorrow. I will only sell call spread today if we spike higher in the last 23 minutes. Otherwise will wait for morning.
Expiring: May 1st 4115/4135-4210/4230 condors, legged into for total of 1.20 this morning
#SPX1dte Thirty minutes after open bell, sold to Open $SPX May 1st 4135/4115 put spreads for .75.
Not sure if I’ll sell a call side.
Below is some analysis of year-to-date performance of my #SPX1dte strategy. It compares the width of my condor (number of SPX points between short strikes, ranging from 70 to 305), and premium collected (ranging from .85 to 1.80, but shown on chart as 85.00 to 180.00). The VIX daily closing price is also shown at top for reference.
The main finding is that the orange bars, representing width, have dropped a lot in recent weeks. Premium used to be consistently below width, and now it is consistenly higher. Volatility struck this week but we were not able to get an increase in width, which led to my terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week.
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Apr 26th 4165/4185 call spreads for 4.20. Absolutely brutal.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 28th 4055/4075-4165/4185 condors for .85
#SPX1dte – Well, today is the type of day I try to avoid at all costs. My first major failure in many months.
The first quarter of the year was so quiet that 100% of my stops turned out to be unnecessary. So I loosened up and let some days breech my stop and stayed in the trade. Then we got a downside warning and I started stopping out again, and to great benefit. However, I was still taking a more relaxed approach, not acting quickly when stop was first touched and waiting for a pullback.
This week included THREE stops, all of which would have been less costly had I acted soon after the first breech.
So lesson has been learned. I will be reacting quickly on stops moving forward, and only slightly relaxed after a period of complacency. Even then, I won’t allow my hope for a intraday reversal guide my strategy.
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Apr 27th 4105/4125 call spreads for 2.50. Condors sold yesterday for 1.20
Whipsaw week, two stop outs on opposite ends. After the quick surge from 4089 to 4096, stopped out on the pull back.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 27th 3970/3990-4105/4125 condors for 1.20. Deltas reversed from -.06 +.07 to be -.07 +.06 between entering order and the fill.
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Apr 26th 4025/4005 put spreads for .10. Condors sold this morning for 1.20.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 26th 4005/4025-4125/4145 condors for 1.20, deltas -.06 +.07.
Futures were fairly calm over night, so perhaps yesterday was an isolated event. Regardless I will be watching closely today.
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Apr 25th 4085/4065 put spreads for 4.60. Condors sold this morning for 1.10.
Biggest debit of 2023 thus far. May be my first losing week of the year, but I think I can get it to be a bit on positive side..
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX Apr 25th 4065/4085-4155/4175 condors for 1.10, deltas -.07 +.08
Going a little looser on deltas to get some premium, but certainly higher risk to whippy days.
Further to Iceman’s post from Friday, the new one-day $VIX index launched this morning, ticker $VIX1D
#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX Apr 24th 4070/4090-4165/4185 condors for .95, deltas -.07 +.06
#SPX1dte Not trading for Monday, gonna wait for the morning.
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX April 21st 4055/4035 put spreads for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.05. Risk still ON for call side, but it seems the precipitous moves this week have been downward.
Lesson learned last week: If I get to the end of the week and I’m at or above my 3.00 target, lean toward taking risk off and ending the week strong, rather than last week when the final two hours of day chopped 2.20 off my week.
Provided no upside surge today, week’s profit is +4.00
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 21st 4035/4055-4165/4185 condors for 1.05, SPX at 4120, deltas -.06 +.07
Expiring: Apr 20th 4075/4095-4205/4225 condors, sold yesterday for .90
#speculation #bullputspreads #assignment
Sold this $PACW Apr 21st 15/10 put spread for 3.70 on March 17th, and it fizzled out, failing to get above 11 until yesterday. I was on a plane when it peaked at 11.71 so didn’t close. Last night, ASSIGNED on the short puts on over half of the spreads. Today, looking to close remaining SPREADS for 3.50, breakeven covering commissions. Also will look to sell stock if we get over 11.50, which would be effectively the same. Earnings are next week so no interest in holding on to the stock longer.