Closing NUGT, SPXpire

#ContangoETFs . I am closing $NUGT at breakeven because I think chances are it will still go higher and I don’t want to get into another $DRIP situation right now.

BTC NUGT June 47 calls for 3.75. Sold for 3.80 on Dec 24.
BTC NUGT Sep 52 calls for 4.75. Sold for 4.80 on Feb 21.

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Feb 26th 2970/2990-3220/3240 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.

SQ earnings analysis

#Earnings $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 6, 2019 AC +5.00%
Aug. 1, 2019 AC -14.05% Biggest DOWN
May 1, 2019 AC -7.98%
Feb. 27, 2019 AC +2.42%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -9.02%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +8.65%
May 2, 2018 AC +1.13%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC +0.30%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +3.40%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -4.68%
May 3, 2017 AC +8.86%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +14.02% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 6.63%
Bias 0.67%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 78.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 71.10 to 84.90
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 72.83 to 83.17
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.1%): 67.04 to 88.96
Based on UP max only (+14.0%): 88.94

Open to requests for other symbols.

Back to back 3%+

First time since November 2008 that SPX dropped more than 3% two days in a row.

Gap Opens

Following up to my Post yesterday, here is a chart of all SPX gap opens that were plus or minus 2% or greater since 1/1/2000. Click the chart for a larger view.

On the left is 1/3/2000, and on the right is yesterday, 2/24/20. The cluster near the middle is the 2008 crash. As you can see, a very long gap between 2014 and now.

Screen Shot 2020-02-25 at 2.25.01 PM

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Feb 26th 2970/2990-3220/3240 condors for 1.30. IV: 33.19%, SPX 3140, deltas -.06, +.07.

UVXY adding

#VXXGame Sold $UVXY April 17th 19 calls for 2.75. Keeping more longs than shorts, but they are in an earlier expiration.

DRIPping upward

#ContangoETFs Sold $DRIP March 20th 186 calls for 6.35