SPX trades

#SPX1dte Woke up at 4:30 to close put side: Bought to close $SPX Sep 20th 4330/4310 put spreads for 3.20. Condors sold for 1.05 on Friday. Looks like it would have been better to wait for the open, but market was falling all night.

#spx7dtelong

Upside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator $VIX finally showed some gumption this morning. Likely downside warning coming at the close.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 17th 4445/4425 put spread for 3.50. I’m kind of back on the bullish train, since the VIX has been tepid, but even so I sold this too early and we are dropping more.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

Yesterday:
#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX Sep 17 4425/4445-4455/4475 condors for 17.10.
#SPX1dte Expired: Sep 13th 4370/4390-4525/4545 condors, sold Friday for 1.00.

Today:
Sold to close Sep 15th 4505/4525 call spreads for 2.50. Sold put side for 12.40 yesterday, so total. Bought for 16.10 last Thursday so 14.90 total, loss of 1.20.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 15th 4490/4470 put spreads for 12.40. Condors bought for 16.10 last Thursday. Call spreads still open. Uncertain where we are headed; Upside Warning still in effect but we’ve had several days of weakness.

SPX trades

#SPX7dtelong In pre-market, sold to close $SPX Sep 13th 4515/4535 call spreads for 8.00. Sold puts yesterday for 8.25, so 16.25 total. Condors bought for 14.70 on Wednesday, so 1.55 in profit.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 10th 4525/4505 put spreads for 5.00. Leaving call spreads for more upside.

Made the mistake of getting spooked by yesterday’s drop, and did not sell this put side then. I should have heeded the Upside Warning and closed it. But hopefully we can revisit the highs around 4545 tomorrow.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Sep 13th 4485/4505-4515/4535 condors for 14.70, with SPX at 4511.

Today’s 4535/4555 call spread will expire worthless, leaving me only with the 8.00 credit I got for the put side yesterday. Bought for 14.55 last Thursday so 6.55 loss.

#SPX1dte Expected to expire worthless: $SPX Sep 8th 4460/4480-4550/4570 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 8th 4525/4505 put spreads for 8.00. Saving call spreads for the hopeful bounce.

I was travelling last week so was unable to post. For the condor expiring today:
Purchased last Tuesday for 14.30
Sold put side on Thursday for 5.25
Sold call side Friday for 12.00
Total profit: 2.95

#spx1dte

August Jobs Report

#Jobs — August dips, way below expectations

Gain of +235,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 720K.
Unemployment at 5.2%, down by 0.3
U6 unemployment at 8.9%, down by 0.3
Labor force participation 61.7%, unchanged
Wages up 4.3% year over year

July jobs revised up by +110K to +1.053M
June jobs revised up by +24K to +962K

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 3rd 4535/4555 call spreads for 10.50. Put side sold for 8.00 on Tuesday. Condors bought for 13.75 so total profit of 4.75.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 3rd 4525/4505 put spreads for 8.00. Condors bought yesterday for 13.75.

This strategy has been working much better if I leg out on the swings. When I started it during the pandemic in 2020, the market was moving pretty big, so I could wait for expiration day and usually get the full 20.00. If I exited one side early, there was too much risk it would keep going in that direction. But now with volatility lower, using the swings is a better bet… especially with an Upside Warning and (economic recovery) giving me confidence that dips are short-lived.

SPX new trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX Sep 3rd 4505/4525-4535/4555 condors for 13.70, with SPX at 4534.

SPX trades

#SPX7dte Sold to close $SPX Aug 30th 4500/4520 call spreads for 17.50. Put side sold Thursday for 8.25, so 25.75 total credit. Condors bought for 14.20 last Tuesday so 11.55 total profit.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 27th 4485/4505 call spreads for 17.60. Put side sold for 2.75 yesterday so 20.35 total credit. Condors bought for 14.20 on Monday, so 6.15 profit.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 27th 4475/4455 put spread for 2.75. Leaving 4485/4505 call side into tomorrow.

#SPX1dte Yesterday, expired worthless: Aug 25th 4430/4450-4515/4535 condors, sold Tuesday for .90

#vixindicator

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 25th 4400/4420 call spreads for 19.70. Condors bought for 17.30 last Thursday.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 23rd 4480 calls for 1.00. Condors sold for .95 on Friday. Hit the stop early but kept missing the fills. Took a trip up to 10.00… now back below a dollar.

#spx7dtelong

Whipsaw

#VIXindicator In one of the most whipsawy periods I can remember, the Downside Warning was canceled with a new SPX high today.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 23rd 4360/4380-4480/4500 condors for .95, SPX at 4442, IV 8.2%, deltas -.08 +.06. Actually a little more afraid of upside than downside, even though we are in a Downside Warning.

Expiring: Aug 20th 4290/4310-4460/4480 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 20th 4470/4490 call spreads for .75. Puts sold for 8.40 on Tuesday, so 9.15 total credit off a purchase of 13.10, so 3.95 loss.

#spx1dte

Downside Warning

#VIXindicator Looks like we got a Downside Warning already. Last one was basically a head fake. So was the Upside one.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 23rd 4460/4480 call spreads for 8.50. Bought yesterday for 7.90.

My *guess* is that yesterday’s VIX spike was a head-fake and we are still going higher. But gotta follow my rules and dump out of this while some profit is available. Another dip would likely mean full loss, since I have no put side on this one.

#spx1dte

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 18th 4345/4365-4480/4500 condors for 1.05, SPX at 4438, IV 11.85%, deltas -.07 +.06

Upside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator, well that got ugly fast and became one of the briefest UpW’s in history. At least I collected great profits on yesterday’s swings.

SPX trades

Using the pullback to make some moves. Keeping the faith in Upside Warning that we have higher to go despite retail sales report, Delta variant, Afghanistan, etc.

Sold to close $SPX Aug 20th 4460/4440 put spreads for 8.40. Condor bought yesterday for 13.10.

#spx7dtelong

SPX trades

It actually is somewhat common for the first day after the Upside Warning fires that we get a pullback. It makes sense; it requires three straight days of low volatility to fire it, so a fourth day of some pullback seems in order. The UpW almost always works, but getting the timing right can be tough.

#SPX7dteLong
Sold to close $SPX Aug 16th 4435/4415 put spreads for 2.50. Looking for a bounce to close call side.

Sold to close $SPX Aug 18th 4450/4430 put spreads for 7.80. Still have time for the call side.

#spx1dte

Upside Warning is ON

#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning took effect on Friday after three consecutive closes of $VIX below the 78.6 Fib line drawn from pre-correction low and correction high. Expect higher prices in coming days or weeks.

Last four Upside Warnings:
May 28, 2021: close on that day: 4204. Subsequent high was 4393 on July 7. 31 trading days, +4.5%
Mar 15, 2021: close on that day: 3969. Subsequent high was 4238 on May 7. 40 trading days, +6.8%
Feb 5, 2021: close on that day: 3886. Subsequent high was 3950 on Feb 16. 6 trading days, +1.6%
Nov 11, 2020: close that day: 3585. Subsequent high was 3726 on Dec 18. 25 trading days, +3.9%

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 13th 4460/4440 call spreads for 19.00. Put side sold for 2.45, yesterday, for 21.45 total, on purchase price of 14.10, means 7.35 profit.

#spx1dte

Upside Warning imminent

#VIXindicator It should take effect at the close Friday, unless the day is volatile.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 13th 4430/4410 put spreads for 2.45. Leaving call spreads for now. Condors bought for 14.10 on Monday.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 11th 4425/4445 call spreads for 15.10. Could not risk any further down move. Put side sold for 2.25 yesterday so 17.35 total. Bought for 15.05 last week, so 2.30 profit.

#SPX1dte Expected to expire worthless: Aug 11th 4365/4385-4465/4485 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 11th 4415/4395 put spreads for 2.25. Condors bought for 15.05 last Thursday. Saving call spreads to sell later today or tomorrow.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 13th 4410/4430-4440/4460 condors for 14.10, with SPX at 4434.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX 4360/4380-4465/4486 condor for 1.05, SPX at 4434, IV 6.5%, deltas -.07 +.08

Expiring: 4350/4370-4465/4485 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05

July Jobs report

#Jobs — July was another strong month, beating expectations

Gain of +943,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 845K.
Unemployment at 5.4%, down by 0.5
U6 unemployment at 9.2%, down by 0.6
Labor force participation 61.7%, up by 0.1
Wages up 0.4% for the month

June jobs revised up by +88K to +938K
May jobs revised up by +31K to +614K

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 11th 4395/4415-4425/4445 condors for 15.05, with SPX ar 4419.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 6th 4400/4380 put spreads for 5.70. Condors bought for 15.50 on Monday.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to open Aug 9th $SPX 4390/4410-4420/4440 condors for 15.20, with SPX at 4415.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 6th 4380/4400-4410/4430 condors for 15.50, with SPX at 4398.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX July 30th 4410/4390 put spreads for 5.40. Tried to close at the open but was not filled, and then chased all morning as it only went up. Not a great way to start the day when I could have gotten over 12.00!!!

Hoping for a strong rally to get the call side ITM.

#spx1dte

Downside warning was canceled

#VIXindicator I forgot one of my own rules for this thing… the Downside Warning is canceled if the $SPX hits a new high, even if the $VIX hasn’t given us the cancel signal yet. So it was canceled last Friday. No Upside Warning yet.

PINS earnings analysis

#Earnings $PINS reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 9 quarters, which represents its entire history.

April 27, 2021 AC -14.50%
Feb. 4, 2021 AC +5.29%
Oct. 28, 2020 AC +26.92%
July 30, 2020 AC +36.12%
May 5, 2020 AC -14.84%
Feb. 6, 2020 AC +9.51%
Oct. 31, 2019 AC -17.02%
Aug. 1, 2019 AC +18.62%
May 16, 2019 AC -13.48%

Avg (+ or -) 17.37%
Bias 4.07%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 72.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 64.69 to 80.31
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 59.91 to 85.09
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (36.1%): 46.31 to 98.69
Based on DOWN max only (-17.0%): 60.16

Open to requests for other symbols.

AMZN earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 29, 2021 AC -0.11%
Feb. 2, 2021 AC -1.99%
Oct. 29, 2020 AC -5.44%
July 30, 2020 AC +3.69%
April 30, 2020 AC -7.59%
Jan. 30, 2020 AC +7.37%
Oct. 24, 2019 AC -1.09%
July 25, 2019 AC -1.55%
April 25, 2019 AC +2.54%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81%
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%

Avg (+ or -) 3.76%
Bias -1.40%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 3,595.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 3,478.20 to 3,711.80
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 3,459.98 to 3,730.02
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.8%): 3,314.23 to 3,875.77
Based on UP max only (+7.4): 3,859.95

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX 4400/4420-4430/4450 condors for 15.05, with SPX at 4422. I compared this one to the 4395/4415-4425/4445, and it was going for about 25 cents cheaper. That seems to often be the case, that savings can be found if you look at the condor 5 point higher or lower.

#spx1dte

FB earnings analysis

#Earnings $FB reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 28, 2021 AC +7.29%
Jan. 27, 2021 AC -2.62%
Oct. 29, 2020 AC -6.30%
July 30, 2020 AC +8.17%
April 29, 2020 AC +5.41%
Jan. 29, 2020 AC -6.13%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +1.80%
July 24, 2019 AC -1.93%
April 24, 2019 AC +5.84%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +10.81%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96%

Avg (+ or -) 6.59%
Bias 0.60%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 375.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 356.78 to 393.33
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 350.29 to 399.71
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 303.90 to 446.10
Based on UP max only (+10.8): 415.54

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX June 28th 4375/4395 call spreads for 14.75. Condors bought for 15.15 last Thursday. Took a small loss now as we could end the day lower. WIll get some from the put side if there’s any downward pressure over next hour or so.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 2nd 4355/4375-4385/4405 condors for 16.75, with SPX at 4378.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 30th 4390/4410-4420/4440 condors for 15.30, with SPX at 4415.

Expiring at full loss: July 26th 4260/4240 put spreads, bought last Tuesday for 5.65.

#SPX1dte Expecting to expire at full gain: July 26th 4330/4350-4450/4470 condors, sold Friday for 1.00.

SPX week

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Juy 26th 4330/4350-4450/4470 iron condors for 1.00. SPX at 4407, IV 7.2%, deltas -.07 +.07

Crappy week because of the (thus far) head-fake Downside Warning. After taking a small loss on #SPX1dte trade Monday, skipped the trade for Wed & Fri. Took nice profit Monday on #SPX7dteLong but assumed more downside and took losses on Wed, Fri, and next Mon trades. Hopefully back to normal next week.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX July 21st 4340/4320 put spreads for 3.90. Leaving call spreads for a bit later as the rally seems to have strength. Missed this one big time; should have sold put side Monday and I’d be collecting a double on this trade.

Also, doubled down on next Monday’s put spread. Bought more of the June 26th 4260/4240 put spreads for 1.60. Adding to the ones I bought yesterday for 5.65

SPX trades

I’m not selling an #SPX1dte trade today as the market is too unpredictable and the moves too large. Obviously I was way too early on my bearish trades this morning. Will likely double down if we open tomorrow higher or flat.

NFLX earnings analysis

#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 20, 2021 AC -7.40%
Jan. 19, 2021 AC +16.85%
Oct. 20, 2020 AC -6.92%
July 16, 2020 AC -6.52%
April 21, 2020 AC -2.86%
Jan. 21, 2020 AC -3.58%
Oct. 16, 2019 AC +2.46%
July 17, 2019 AC -10.27%
April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%

Avg (+ or -) 6.06%
Bias -1.96%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 535.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 503.28 to 566.72
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 502.60 to 567.40
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.9%): 444.85 to 625.15
Based on DOWN max only (-10.3%): 480.06

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX July 23rd 4245/4265 call spreads for 14.10. Condors bought yesterday for 18.00. Counting on another drop by Friday to sell put side.

Also, bought to open July 26th 4260/4240 put spreads for 5.65. Going put side only for this one.

Downside Warning in effect

#VIXindicator The $VIX closed over 25% above its 2-day closing low, so that’s a new Downside Warning.

Here are the last four Downside Warnings for reference:
Fired 5/11/21, at the SPX close of 4,152. The SPX low was the next day at 4,056. It dipped again 5 trading days after
that to 4,061, then recovered from there.
Fired 2/25/21, at the SPX close of 3,829. The SPX low of 3,723 was 5 trading days later.
Fired 1/27/21, at the SPX close of 3,750. The SPX low of 3,694 was only 2 days later .
Fired 9/3/20, at the SPX close of 3,455. The SPX low of 3,209 was 3 weeks later on Sep 24th.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 23rd 4215/4235-4245/4265 condors for 18.00, with SPX at 4242.

Expiring with max credit of 20.00: July 19th 4370/4350 put spreads. Condors bought last Tuesday for 15.25.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 19th 4340/4320 put spreads for 1.85. Stop hit at the open. Condors sold for 1.30 on Friday, so .55 loss.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 19th 4220/4240-4375/4395 condors for 1.30, SPX at 4329, IV 10.2%, deltas -.06 +.08

No spread sold for today’s expiration.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX July 16th 4380/4360 put spreads for 12.00. Condors bought for 14.20 on Monday. Since bank earnings are good I’m banking on more upside into tomorrow’s close, so I can sell the call side. But if we go lower loss is only 2.20.

#SPX1dte Expired yesterday: July 14th condor, sold Tuesday for 1.35.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 19th 4350/4370-4380/4400 condors for 15.25, with SPX at 4374.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 16th 4360/4380-4390/4410 condors for 14.20, with SPX at 4382.

#SPX1dte Expiring worthless when I didn’t want it to: LONG condor bought Friday for .80.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte STOPPED Bought to close $SPX July 9th 4365/4385 call spreads for 1.85. Condors sold yesterday for .95

#spx7dtelong

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 14th 4305/4325-4335/4355 condors for 15.90, with SPX at 4326.

I forgot to buy one for next Monday… the holiday threw me off.

#spx1dte

Upside Warning was canceled this morning

#VIXIndicator The Upside warning that began on May 28th was canceled today. The close on May 28th was 4204, and the high was yesterday, at 4361. So this UpW was good for +3.7%.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX July 7th 4320/4340 call spreads for 15.00. Condors bought for 13.10 last Thursday.

Leaving put spreads for possible further down move. I don’t trust that we will finish day OTM on the call spread so took profit now.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 9th 4310/4330-4340/4360 condors for 13.75 with SPX at 4337.

#SPX1dte Expected to expire worthless: July 6th 4290/4310-4385/4410 condors, sold Friday for 1.00

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX July 6th 4270/4290-4300/4320 condors for 19.25. Bought for 13.85 on Tuesday.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 6th 4290/4310-4385/4405 condors for 1.00, SPX at 4350, IV 5.7%, deltas -.09 +.08

Today’s 1-dte looking like a loss, currently 6 points ITM.

June Jobs Report

#Jobs — June was a strong month, beating expectations

Gain of +850,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 706K.
Unemployment at 5.9%, up by 0.1
U6 unemployment at 9.8%, down by 0.4
Labor force participation 61.6%, unchanged
Wages up 0.3% for the month, 3.6% year over year

May jobs revised up by +24K to +583K
April revised up by +12K to +278K

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 7th 4290/4310-4320/4340 condors for 13.10, with SPX at 43167. Another new record for lowest price paid for this strategy.

#spx1dte

SPXpire

#SPX1dte Expiring worthless: $SPX June 30th 4240/4260-4320/4340 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00
#SPX7dteLong Expiring with max credit of 20.00: June 30th 4275/4295 call spreads. Condors bought last Thursday for 13.60.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 6th 4270/4290-4300/4320 condors for 13.85, with SPX at 4295.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open July 2nd 4260/4280-4290/4310 condors for 13.35, when SPX was at 4283.

Expiring with max credit of 20.00: June 28th 4255/4275 call spreads; condors bought last Tuesday for 14.10.

#SPX1dte Expiring worthless: June 28th 4215/4240-4315/4340 condors, sold Friday for 1.00. Didn’t realize until now it was 25-pt-wide, rather than my usual 20.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 28th 4220/4240-4315/4335 condors for 1.00, SPX at 4280, IV 6.95%, deltas -.10 +.06.

The #VIXIndicator never broke its Upside Warning in last week’s swoon, so it is clearly back on, baby. Therefore, staying aggressive with the put-side deltas for now.

Expiring:June 25th 4205/4225-4300/4320 condors, sold yesterday for .90.

#SPX7dteLong Expiring with max credit of 20.00: June 25th 4230/4250 call spreads. Condors bought Monday for 15.25.

SPX trades

#SPX1dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 30th 4245/4265-4275/4295 condors for 13.60, with SPX at 4268. This is first time I have paid less than 14 for this trade.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 28th 4225/4245-4255/4275 for 14.10. Partially filled when SPX was at 4247. The rest filled before the bell.

Sold to Close June 23rd 4185/4205 call spreads for 19.40. Condors bought for 17.15 last Thursday. Taking profit early to avoid any surprises tomorrow.

#spx1dte