SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 27th 3965/3985-4120/4140 condors for 1.35

Expired: Jan 26th 3910/3930-4075/4095 condors, sold yesterday for 1.25

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jan 25th 3940/3920 put spreads for 2.65. Condors sold yesterday for 1.25.

First loss of 2023!

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 25th 3920/3940-4075/4095 condors for 1.25, SPX at 4011, deltas -.06, +.06

Expiring: Jan 24h 3925/3945-4075/4095 condors, sold yesterday for 1.25

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 24th 3925/3945-4075/4095 condors for 1.25

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte I’ve been working the new job so unable to post as much. But the year has started well, with no losing trades, 8 winners, 2 breakevens.

Week 1: 4 trades, +2.60
Week 2: 3 trades, +3.55
Week 3: 3 trades, +3.90

Any questions, don’t hesitate.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Jan 11th 3970 call for .30. Condors sold yesterday for 1.30.

No trade for tomorrow due to CPI report. May try to sell something after the release in the morning.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 11th 3840/3860-3970/3990 condors for 1.30.

Today’s condor expired.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 10th 3805/3825-3970/3990 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3892, deltas -.07 +.05

Jobs Jobs Jobs

#Market The job growth just won’t abate… private sector growth way above expectations this morning, and market reacts negatively because it may signal continued rate hikes. Same could happen after tomorrow morning’s monthly report. I will not be trading tonight or tomorrow because of that and my schedule, and will likely skip a Monday trade as well.

Today’s trade is threatened but I did not stop out. The recent range has been pretty tight in terms of CLOSES…. intraday can get wanky, but last time the market closed in breach of my strikes was November 30 (I had stopped out earlier in day, so lost 4.00 rather than 20.00). In fact, I tracked all my #SPX1dte trades since May 1st, and I would have made about 13% more profit if I had followed a “no stop” approach, taking a few big losses but eliminating all of the small losses from stop-outs that ended up being unnecessary. So I’m analyzing the whole year to see if a no-stop approach would be okay.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Jan 4th 3900/3920 call spreads for .30. Put side closed for .05. Condors sold for 1.60 yesterday.

Thursday trade will follow in comments.

#rolling

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte This morning, soon after bell, call-side stop was hit. Bought to close $SPX Jan 3rd 3905/3925 call spreads for 1.25. Condors sold for 1.30 on Friday.

Just now, sold to Open Jan 4th 3725/3745-3900/3920 condors for 1.60, SPX at 3823, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Dec 30th 3780/3760 put spreads for .30. Condors sold yesterday for 1.15. Stop touched barely right after open, but it bounced so decisively I put it on watch rather than exiting quickly.

Final 4-day week profit: +2.98

That completes 2022 for me. I found a pretty steady profit and learned a lot more about managing this strategy. I’m doing some analysis of the year to assess whether any changes should occur for 2023. I’ll place the first trade for Tuesday expiration this afternoon.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 30th 3760/3780-3915/3935 condors for 1.15, SPX at 3853, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Yesterday, sold to open $SPX Dec 29th 3690/3710-3855/3875 condors for 1.20.

This morning, stopped out of the call side for 1.80.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 28th 3750/3770-3900/3920 condors for 1.45, SPX at 3836, deltas -.06 + .06

Expiring: Dec 27th 3735/3755-3905/3925 condors, sold Friday for 1.283

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 27th 3735/3755-3905/3925 condors for 1.283.

Expiring: Dec 23rd 3715/3735-3895/3915 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.

Have a great weekend everyone!

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 3715/3715-3895/3915 condors for 1.10, SPX at 3820, deltas -.06 +.06

Believe it or not, I broke my rule again today… but this time it was because I wasn’t at my computer at the open. Thought I was in for some real pain, but now flirting with a worthless expiration.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 22nd 3800/3820-3940/3960 condors for 1.35, SPX at 3872, deltas -.09, +.04, IV 19.25%

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 21st 3730/3750-3885/3905 condors for 1.60, at about 12:30pm PT

CPI report tomorrow

Before the bell… IV at 90%, so I won’t be trading now… will look at opportunities after the report and closer to the open.

#onlyspreads

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Nov 25th 3950/3970-4080/4100 condors, sold Wednesday for 1.00.

No trade for Monday as we start shooting and my access to trading will be limited for next three weeks.

This week was 4 wins in #SPX1dte and 1 win in #SPX5dte for +5.70 total profit.

Upside Warning in effect

#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning took effect on Wednesday after three consecutive closes of $VIX below the 78.6 Fib line drawn from pre-correction low and correction high. This could mean higher prices in coming days or weeks.

Here is data on last several Upside Warnings.

Aug 5, 2022: close on that day: 4145. Subsequent high was 4325 on Aug 16. 7 trading days, +4.3%
Mar 29, 2022: (failed) close on that day: 4631. SPX did not go higher. UpW was canceled after 6 trading days
Dec 27, 2021: close on that day: 4791. Subsequent high was 4818 on Jan 4. 6 trading days, +0.6%
Oct 18, 2021: close on that day: 4486. Subsequent high was 4743 on Nov 22. 14 trading days, +5.7%
Aug 25, 2021: close on that day: 4496. Subsequent high was 4595 on Sep 2. 6 trading days, +1.1%
Aug 13, 2021: (headfake) close on that day: 4468. Subsequent high was 4480 the next day. Canceled the day after that.
May 28, 2021: close on that day: 4204. Subsequent high was 4393 on July 7. 31 trading days, +4.5%
Mar 15, 2021: close on that day: 3969. Subsequent high was 4238 on May 7. 40 trading days, +6.8%
Feb 5, 2021: close on that day: 3886. Subsequent high was 3950 on Feb 16. 6 trading days, +1.6%
Nov 11, 2020: close that day: 3585. Subsequent high was 3726 on Dec 18. 25 trading days, +3.9%

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 25th 3950/3970-4080/4100 condors for 1.00, SPX at 4026, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 11.3%

SPX risk off

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Nov 23rd 4065/4085 call spreads for .20. Also closing put spreads. I doubt today’s Fed minutes will have much affect, but cannot be certain.

Fed Meeting Minutes today

#FOMC Released at 2pm Eastern… decision on interest rates will be released December 14th.

SPX 1dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 23rd 3920/3940-4065/4085 condors for 1.40, SPX at 4000, deltas -.08 +.05. IV 19.5%.

Bullish lean as tomorrow will likely melt upwards slowly.

Expiring: Nov 22nd 3870/3890-4010/4030 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30

#spx5dte

Downside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator $VIX closes at 22.36, ending the Downside Warning that started on Sept 22. If we get two more days closing under 22.50, it will mean an Upside Warning. Not surprising as Thanksgiving week is usually mildly bullish. And $SPX was actually down on the day… but volatility dropped steadily.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 22nd 3870/3890-4010/4030 condors for 1.30, SPX at 3950, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 18.8%

Today’s condor expired worthless.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 21st 3860/3880-4040/4060 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3960, deltas -.07 +.05

Today’s condor expiring worthless.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 18th 3820/3840-4010/4030 condors for 1.15, SPX at 3933, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 25.7%

#spx5dte

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Nov 17th 3880/3860 put spreads for 3.50. Filled at 6:14:47, 13 seconds before the 15-minute pause in trading before the opening bell.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 17th 3860/3880-4040/4060 condors for 1.35, SPX at 3961, delta -.07 +.06, IV 24.4%

Expiring: Nov 16th 3895/3915-4050/4070 condors, sold this morning for 1.30

#spx5dte

SPX same day

#SPX1dte In pre-market, Sold to Open $SPX Nov 16th 3895/3915-4050/4070 condors for 1.30, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 37.65%

SPX closed

#SPX1dte Bought to close each side of condor for .05 each. Closed risk as I’m on location scouts today and tomorrow. Not placing another trade probably until Wednesday morning.

Missed it by THAT much

#VIXIndicator Almost got the Downside Warning canceled on Friday. Closed $VIX at 22.52, needed 22.49. Next week should tell us whether the near term direction will continue higher or reverse lower.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 14th 3865/3885-4080/4100 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3995, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 17.34%

Expiring: Nov 11th 3865/3885-4040/4060 condors, sold this morning for 1.40.

#spx5dte

SPX same day

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX Nov 11th 3865/3885-4040/4060 condors for 1.40. Deltas -.06 +.06

SPX risk off

#SPX1dte Not sure if stop was breached but it was close. Bought to close $SPX Nov 9th 3735/3715 put spreads for .20. Condors sold for 1.25 yesterday.

No trade for tomorrow due to CPI report at 8:30am ET

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 3715/3735-3935/3955 condors for 1.25, SPX at 3843, IV 31.3%, deltas -.05 +.05

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Nov 8th 3880/3900 call spreads for .65. Condors sold yesterday for 1.35.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 8th 3715/3735-3880/3900 condors for 1.35, SPX at 3807, deltas -.07 +.05

Expiring: Nov 7th 3655/3675-3850/3870 condors, sold Friday for 1.35

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 7th 3655/3675-3850/3870 condors for 1.35, SPX at 3758, deltas -.07 +.04, IV 16.1%

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Nov 4th 3810/3830 call spreads for .80. Condors sold for 1.35 this morning.

My P/L chart looks like railroad tracks on a candle chart. Here are results of last 4 weeks:

+4.70
-5.85
+7.90
-5.71

The good news is I can identify two mistakes from this week that turned it sour. If it weren’t for my human mistakes, the strategy would be the problem.

I have been tracking paper results if I used a “no stop” strategy, and it officially pulled slightly ahead of my actual gains. Had I gone with no stops since May 16th, my profits would be 11.7% higher.

As it is, my accounts are up an average of 22.3% since May 16th, using ONLY the #SPX1dte and a small amount of #SPX5dte.

Jobs continue to exceed expectations

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 261,000 in October, better than the estimate for 205,000.
The unemployment rate moved higher to 3.7%, while a broader jobless measure also increased, to 6.8%.
Big job gainers by industry included health care, professional and technical services, and leisure and hospitality.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month and were up 4.7% from a year ago.
Labor force participation rate declined by one-tenth of a point to 62.2%.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte At 21 minutes after opening bell, sold to open $SPX Nov 4th 3630/3650-3810/3830 condors for 1.35. Deltas -.06 +.06

No trade before Jobs report

#SPX1dte Capping off a bad week with no overnight trade. I will consider a same-day trade after #Jobs report in the morning.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX 3685/3665 put spreads for 3.10. Condors sold for 1.30 yesterday.

In retrospect, it was a bad trade. The market was plummeting into the close, but the IV for today’s option chain was low, and my wings were not far enough OTM. I also sold a few minutes before the close, so the last drop of the day pushed me closer to my put strike. I should have waited until after the closing bell, or even considered a bearish risk/reversal since such a bad drop in the final half-hour usually means we will open next day lower.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 3rd 3665/3685-3880/3900 condors for 1.30, SPX at 3776, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 30%

Watching today’s put spread carefully.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 2nd 3960/3980 call spreads for 2.00, SPX at 3885, delta probably about +.10 when filled.

Will consider a put side if we pull back enough.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Nov 1st 3785/3805-3955/3975 condors, sold yesterday for 1.45

Not selling for tomorrow due to Fed announcement on rates at 2pm Eastern. If I’m available, I may place trades after the announcement.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 1st 3785/3805-3955/3975 condors for 1.45, SPX at 3878, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 23.7%

Expiring: Oct 31st 3780/3800-3985/4005 condors, sold Friday for 1.45

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Oct 28th 3915 call for .30. Condors sold for 1.65. Stop hit with first spike above 3902. Monday trade will come in comment.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 28th 3825/3845-3855/3875 condors for 16.50. Bought Tuesday for 17.75, so 1.25 loss. Not enough movement and too risky to hold until tomorrow.

1-dte trade to follow in comments.

#spx1dte

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 27th 3725/3745-3920/3940 condors for 1.60, SPX at 3833, IV 28%, deltas -.07 +.06

Expiring: Oct 26th 3740/3760-3935/3950, sold yesterday for 1.30

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 26th 3740/3760-3935/3950 for 1.30, at 12 minutes after closing bell. Deltas -.07 +.04

This is broken wing, 20 points on puts, 15 on calls, due to limited strikes above 3950. Market moved on me after setting it up and getting filled ($MSFT and $GOOGL earnings), so deltas are skewed.

SPX 5-dte

#SPX5dte Bought to open $SPX Oct 28th 3825/3845-3855/3875 condors for 17.75. SPX was at 3838, these expire Friday so looking to be out by end of day Thursday.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 25th 3685/3710-3900/3925 condors for 1.80, SPX at 3801, IV 30%, deltas -.07 +.05

25-point wide due to limited strikes available above 3900.

SPX 5-dte

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 25th 3640/3660-3670/3690 condors for 19.30. Bought for 17.75 on Thursday.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 24th 3625/3645-3855/3875 condors for 1.55, SPX at 3753, IV 20%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Oct 21st 3755/3775 call spreads for .90. Condors sold yesterday for 1.35.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Oct 25th 3640/3660-3670/3690 condors for 17.75. First one of these I’ve done in a few weeks because volatility has made them too expensive. Here I’m only going 3 trading days out (Tuesday) so I can keep price under 18.00.

1-dte trades to follow in comments

#spx1dte

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 20th 3565/3585-3785/3805 condors for 1.50, SPX at 3687, IV 32.1%, deltas -.06 +.06

Expiring: Oct 19th 3600/3620-3770/3790 condors, sold this morning for 1.55.

SPX-1dte

#SPX1dte So much for this Risk/Reversal crap… i thought we’d get more of a rally here, especially with good earnings news. But I’ve been thoroughly bitch-whipsawed this week.

Sold to open $SPX (same day) Oct 19th 3600/3620-3770/3790 condors for 1.55, SPX at 3698, deltas -.06 +.07

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte I am still bullish for more move higher. I’m trying a risk/reversal again, placed after the close then immediately helped by $NFLX blowout…

Sold to Open $SPX Oct 19th 3635/3615 put spreads
Bought to Open $SPX Oct 19th 3820/3840 call spreads
Net DEBIT -.40.

SPX risk/reversal

#SPX1dte #RiskReversal Definitely late to game but I think we will go higher into close.
Sold $SPX Oct 18th 3675/3655 put spreads
Bought Oct 18th 3815/3835 call spreads
Net CREDIT +.05

Deltas -.07 +.07

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Not a fun thing to wake up to. Earlier, in pre-market, bought to close $SPX Oct 18th 3770/3790 call spreads for 6.00. That’s my biggest hit since June 24th. I really do not know what I was thinking yesterday, since it was an obvious day to play directionally to upside. I will consider a same day trade after the open.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 18th 3565/3585-3770/3790 condors for 1.55, SPX at 3685, deltas -.06 +.06

Expiring: Oct 17th 3575/3595-3740/3760 condors, sold this morning for 1.20 after being stopped out of first one.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Oct 17th 3700/3720 call spreads for 4.20. Condors sold for 1.30 on Friday. Looks like I picked the wrong day for my Risk/Reversal.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 17th 3420/3460-3700/3720 condors for 1.30, SPX at 3595, deltas -.05 +.07

SPX R/R

#SPX1dte #Risk/Reversal

When you are long one of these spreads, you are faced with decisions all day long (and even all night long with $SPX)… when to exit? With a small profit? Or wait for a bigger one.

Being short is easier.. if stop is hit, GET OUT.

Last night at 9:30pm Pacific I could have taken profits on call spread by selling at 2.50. I instead put in an order for 4.00, thinking we’d edge higher over night. Instead, we dropped. Then after the open, I put in a new sell order for 1.50… the opening spike got me to 1.35, so no fill. Now we have collapsed, and likely profit will be zero. Only hope is whatever volatility just spiked us down will be seen as a buying opportunity like yesterday’s morning was.

Still, successful week with 4 wins, 1 likely breakeven (today) for total profit of 4.85.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte #RiskReversal Bullish into tomorrow, so playing for more upside. When SPX at 3668:
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 3550/3530 put spreads, delta -.07
Bought to Open $SPX Oct 14th 3785/3805 call spreads, delta +.05

SPX closed for safety

#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Oct 13th 3400/3380 put spread for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.25. I will let calls expire.

My job looks like it will afford enough access to my computer that I can continue trading semi-regularly, at least until end of November when we begin shooting. The show I am working on is the third season of “Hacks,” produced by NBC/Universal for HBO.

It will mean I will be closing one or both sides for safety more often than I normally do, so I can be risk-off for remainder of day.

CPI higher than expected (hoped)

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in September and were up 8.2% from a year ago. Expectation was 0.2% increase.

$SPX set to open at new low for 2022, lowest levels since November 2020.

$VIX doesn’t seem to care much, at least in pre-market.

SPX 1-dte, into the storm

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 13th 3380/3400-3750/3770 condors for 1.25, SPX at 3583, deltas -.03 +.04

Normally wouldn’t sell going into CPI report after last month’s volatile down day, but these strikes are far OTM and low delta, and still providing ample premium.

SPX closed

#SPX1dte Closed full condor for .25… now it’s only .10. Perfect day for neutral trader.