SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX April 3rd 2310/2330-2610/2630 condors for 1.60, IV 54%, SPX 2482, deltas: -.06, +.06. Taking it early since I have to head out.

Another dismal record

6.64 million in weekly jobless claims, doubling last week’s record.
Previous record was set in October 1982 at 695,000.

Screen Shot 2020-04-02 at 6.10.42 AM

SPXpire

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX April 1st 2380/2400-2735/2755 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05.

WBA earnings analysis

#Earnings $WBA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 8, 2020 BO -5.83%
Oct. 28, 2019 BO +0.68%
June 27, 2019 BO +4.08% Biggest UP
April 2, 2019 BO -12.80% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2018 BO -5.02%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO -1.94%
June 28, 2018 BO -9.90%
March 28, 2018 BO +2.47%
Jan. 4, 2018 BO -5.17%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +3.07%
June 29, 2017 BO +1.66%
April 5, 2017 BO -1.61%

Avg (+ or -) 4.52%
Bias -2.53%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 44.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 40.21 to 48.79
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 42.49 to 46.51
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.8%): 38.80 to 50.20
Based on UP max only (+4.1%): 46.32

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Apr 1st 2380/2400-2735/2755 condors for 1.05, IV 54%, SPX 2581, deltas -.06, +.03.

I forgot about the quarterly expiration… could have done a trade yesterday!

SPXpire

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX March 27th 2380/2400-2760/2780 condors, sold yesterday for 1.80.

I tried a couple different SPX1dte orders for Monday but didn’t get filled and didn’t want to chase for reduced premium. IV on the Monday expiration was only 49% at the close, which is much lower than what we’ve been seeing in this correction.

TQQQ adding

#LongLEAPs BTO $TQQQ Jan 2021 85 calls for 1.90, adding to the 90-strike calls previously purchased.