SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Dec 14th 2580 puts for .20.

Sold $SPX Dec 17th 2500/2520-2665/2685 condors for 1.05.

Econ Calendar for week of 12/17/18

Fed decision released Wednesday at 2pm ET

Screen Shot 2018-12-14 at 10.21.41 AM

Screen Shot 2018-12-14 at 10.21.41 AM

Link to chart: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=17&month=12&year=2018&cust=us&lid=0

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Dec 14th 2700 calls for .05. Stop level on the put spread is the expected move to the short put… EM is currently 24.00, so stop is 2604 for the 2580/2560 put spread. Unless we breach that level I will look to exit for .05 or .10. Sold condor yesterday for 1.05.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 14th 2560/2580-2700/2720 condors for 1.05. Expire tomorrow.

Also, a 45-dte roll from last month…
BTC $SPX Jan 17th 2950/2970 call spreads for .20. Sold 11/20 in a condor for 3.00 (2420/2400 puts still active)
Rolled to Jan 17th 2800/2820 call spreads, sold today for 2.55.

Calls sold

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $TQQQ Dec 21st 49 calls for .90
Sold $SQ Dec 21st 66 calls for .84

PVTL calls closed

#Earnings #CoveredCalls BTC $PVTL Dec 21st 21 covered calls for .05. Sold for .80 on Tuesday. Earning report has had little effect on the stock. Cost basis 19.00. Will continue to hold and sell calls.

COST earnings analysis

#Earnings $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC 3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97% Biggest DOWN
May 25, 2017 AC 1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC 2.43%
Sept. 29, 2016 AC 3.40%
May 25, 2016 AC 3.57% Biggest UP
March 2, 2016 AC -0.77%
Dec. 8, 2015 AC -5.41%

Avg (+ or -) 3.17%
Bias -0.75%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 229.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 220.17 to 237.83
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 221.75 to 236.25
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.0%): 215.33 to 242.67

Open for requests on other symbols.