SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 17th 3335/3355-3365/3385 condors for 16.05, with SPX at 3360.

Expiring: Aug 10th 3300/3320 call spreads for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 16.65.

#SPX1dte Expiring: Aug 10th 3255/3275-3395/3415 condors, sold Friday for 1.10

Earnings fail

#Earnings. Lost 1.25 on my $YELP supposed-to-be-Straddle but ended up being only a long call. Sure enough, I got the direction wrong.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 10th 3255/3275-3395/3415 condors for 1.10, with SPX at 3350. IV 11.24%, ∆ -.06,+.06

Expiring: Aug 7th #RiskReversal 3290/3270 put credits spreads & 3390/3405 call debit spreads. Keeping credit of .20.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 14th 3315/3335-3345/3365 condors for 16.30, with SPX at 3342.

Expiring: Aug 7th 3165/3185 call spreads for 20.00 DEBIT. This is the one I sold last Friday , but never had a chance to take profit as index only moved up since then. Sold last Friday for 18.95, closed puts for .05, so total loss 1.10.

July Jobs Reports

#Jobs — an increase that sightly beats expectations.

Gain of +1,763,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected 1.48M gain
Unemployment at 10.2%, down by 0.9%, vs. expected 10.6%
U6 unemployment at 16.5%, down by 1.5%
Labor force participation 61.4%, down by 0.1%
Average hourly earnings up 0.2%.

June jobs revised down by -9K
May jobs revised upward by +26K

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Since we have another #Jobs report tomorrow I’m going with a #RiskReversal for the upside.

Sold to Open $SPX Aug 7th 3290/3270 put spreads
Bought to Open Aug 7th 3390/3405 call spreads
Total credit: .20

IV: 16.27%, short put ∆ -.10, long call ∆ +.05

SPX 7dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 12th 3320/3340-3350/3370 condors for 15.80 with SPX at 3347. I didn’t buy the ATM spread yesterday because it was going for over 19.00. Wait one day and now it is the cheapest I’ve ever gotten on this strategy. Does this mean I should always wait for 6 days out rather than 7?

Also, BTC $SPX Aug 7th 3155/3135 put spreads for .05. This is for the lottery ticket chance of a major down day tomorrow, allowing me to close the call side for a profit without worrying about the put side. Condors SOLD last Friday for 18.95.

YELP earnings analysis

#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 7, 2020 AC +2.35%
Feb. 13, 2020 AC -3.47%
Nov. 7, 2019 AC +15.43%
Aug. 8, 2019 AC +5.20%
May 9, 2019 AC -14.37%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -0.70%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65%
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 12.03%
Bias 0.85%, slightly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 27.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 24.15 to 29.85 (+/- 10.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 23.75 to 30.25
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 19.53 to 34.47
Based on DOWN max only (-26.6%): 19.82

Open to requests for other symbols.

#longstraddle

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong I am not buying a spread for next Wednesday because, like last Friday, it is going for over 19.00. I don’t know why this is, as I was able to buy Monday’s spread for only 16.65, which is perhaps the least I have ever paid. I SOLD one on Friday, but that spread will be a loss unless we drop into Friday’s close. Friday is the unemployment report for July, so it could be a wild day.

Expired: $SPX Aug 5th 3245/3265 call spreads for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Wednesday for 16.85.

#SPX1dte Expiring: Aug 5th 3220/3240-3345/3365 condors, sold yesterday for .85.

ROKU earnings analysis

#Earnings $ROKU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 11 quarters, representing its entire history of earnings reports.

May 7, 2020 AC -7.88%
Feb. 13, 2020 AC -6.32%
Nov. 6, 2019 AC -16.01%
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +20.85%
May 8, 2019 AC +28.11%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +25.23%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -22.29% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +21.31%
May 9, 2018 AC -1.71%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC -17.71%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +54.93% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 20.21%
Bias 7.14%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 166.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 146.03 to 185.97 (+/- 12.0%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 132.45 to 199.55
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (54.9%): 74.82 to 257.18
Based on DOWN max only (-22.3%): 129.00

Open to requests for other symbols.

WDC earnings analysis

#Earnings $WDC reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 30, 2020 AC -12.15%
Jan. 30, 2020 AC -2.18%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC -16.90%
July 31, 2019 AC +3.00%
April 29, 2019 AC +1.28%
Jan. 24, 2019 AC +7.52% Biggest UP
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -18.18% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC -7.99%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC +1.82%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -2.53%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.54%

Avg (+ or -) 7.40%
Bias -5.13%, strongly negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 45.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 41.39 to 48.61 (+/- 8.0%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 41.67 to 48.33
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.2%): 36.82 to 53.18
Based on UP max only (+7.5%): 48.38

Open to requests for other symbols.

Square up

#Earnings “Square reported numbers a day earlier than expected after a media outlet leaked them.” $SQ

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/square-sq-earnings-q2-2020.html

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 3220/3240-3345/3365 condors for .85, IV 13.91%, SPX 3299, deltas -.06,+.06

DIS earnings analysis

#Earnings $DIS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 5, 2020 AC -0.17%
Feb. 4, 2020 AC -2.32%
Nov. 7, 2019 AC +3.76% Biggest UP
Aug. 6, 2019 AC -4.94% Biggest DOWN
May 8, 2019 AC -1.03%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -1.10%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC +1.72%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -2.21%
May 8, 2018 AC -1.78%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -1.32%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +2.04%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -3.87%

Avg (+ or -) 2.19%
Bias -0.94%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 117.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 111.05 to 123.95 (+/- 5.5%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 114.93 to 120.07
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.9%): 111.70 to 123.30
Based on UP max only (+3.8%): 121.92

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 10th 3270/3290-3300/3320 condors for 16.65, with SPX at 3293.

Expiring: Aug 3rd 3245/3265 call spreads for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 17.05.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 3rd 3310/3330 call spreads for .40. Condors sold for 1.10 on Friday. Stop was hit at the open but was able to wait for low cost exit.

Episode 12 – Adda Girl

Charlize Theron and pals cheat death, Tom Hanks navigates a deadly game of chess, and could it be that grandma is possessed? Michelle Staley Mahony joins Kevin & Jeff with New Music Picks, streaming picks, plus a video exclusive: “Guess the 80’s music video”. More details, the video, playlists and links at https://thepickcast.com

Econ Calendar for week of 8/3/20

#Jobs report is Friday

Screen Shot 2020-07-31 at 1.06.07 PM
Screen Shot 2020-07-31 at 1.06.07 PM

Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

Earnings expirations

#Earnings. Breaking alm ost even as these both expire:

$NOW July 31st 425/420 put spread, sold Wednesday for 1.40.
$AMZN July 31st 3050/3080/3110 Iron Butterfly, sold yesterday for 28.45, so loss of 1.55

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Although NOT long this time. When setting up this trade it was going for 19.00… the most I ever paid was about 18.40. I don’t know why it is so expensive but I’m guessing it’s because next Friday is the jobs report. So, I sold it instead. I will watch all week to look for an exit… I will not be waiting for the miniscule chance of a big win next Friday.

Sold to Open $SPX Aug 7th 3235/3255-3265/3285 condors for 18.95, with SPX at 3260.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 3rd 3165/3185-3310/3330 condors for 1.05, with SPX at 3260. IV 11.95%, deltas -.06,+.06

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong This is the fourth trade in a row for this strategy where I’ve been faced with the danger zone at expiration. I have to make a choice as to whether we are going to finish the day higher or lower, and I chose lower. I am, however, notorious for making the wrong choice in these spots. So look for a higher close!

Sold to close $SPX July 31st 3215/3235 call spreads for 12.20. Already looking like I’m wrong as we have a small spike higher and this can be closed for a lot more now. Condors bought last Friday for 17.55. Looking for a further move down so I can close the put side for a decent credit. If I’m wrong then my loss is locked in.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 31st 3140/3160-3300/3320 condors for 1.25, IV 20.24%, SPX 3243, ∆ -.07,+.06

AMZN target practice

#Earnings Sold to Open $AMZN July 31st 3050/3080/3110 #IronButterfly for 28.45. Risking 1.55 to make up to 28.00 if AMZN ends tomorrow near 3080, or if it swings wildly and passes through the 3080 area. I’ve done this trade many times and paid for the losses by winning two or three times. Doesn’t always sell for this much; 28+ is a good price. But to be clear, probability is highest that it will expire with one side deep ITM , which means a 30.00 debit (thus the 1.55 loss).

AMZN earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 30, 2020 AC -7.59%
Jan. 30, 2020 AC +7.37%
Oct. 24, 2019 AC -1.09%
July 25, 2019 AC -1.55%
April 25, 2019 AC +2.54%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%

Avg (+ or -) 4.67%
Bias 0.35%, tiny positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 3020.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 3197.00 to 3551.00 (+/- 6.5%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 2879.07 to 3160.93
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 2621.06 to 3418.94
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 2784.14

Open to requests for other symbols.

AAPL earnings analysis

#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 30, 2020 AC -1.60%
Jan. 28, 2020 AC +2.09%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +2.26%
July 30, 2019 AC +2.04%
April 30, 2019 AC +4.90%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +6.83% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -6.63% Biggest DOWN
July 31, 2018 AC +5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC +4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.61%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +4.72%

Avg (+ or -) 4.03%
Bias 1.93%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 376.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 351.44 to 400.56 (+/- 6.5%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 360.86 to 391.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 350.32 to 401.68
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 351.07

Open to requests for other symbols.

FB earnings analysis

#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 29, 2020 AC +5.41%
Jan. 29, 2020 AC -6.13%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +1.80%
July 24, 2019 AC -1.93%
April 24, 2019 AC +5.84%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +10.81% Biggest UP
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC +2.91%

Avg (+ or -) 6.00%
Bias 1.16%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 230.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 216.31 to 243.69 (+/- 6.0%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 216.20 to 243.80
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 186.39 to 273.61
Based on UP max only (+10.8%): 254.86

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX Aug 5th 3235/3255-3265/3285 condors for 16.85. with SPX at 3259.

NOW trade this

#Earnings Sold to Open $NOW July 31st 425/420 put spreads for 1.40, with stock at 441.00. Short strike is at the max negative move.

NOW earnings analysis

#Earnings $NOW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Overwhelmingly positive response on earnings…

April 29, 2020 AC +9.17%
Jan. 29, 2020 AC +9.16%
Oct. 23, 2019 AC +8.07%
July 24, 2019 AC -3.86% the only DOWN move since Jan 2016
April 24, 2019 AC +7.41%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +13.41% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +1.42%
July 25, 2018 AC +4.60%
April 25, 2018 AC +4.53%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +2.64%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +1.21%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.74%

Avg (+ or -) 5.52%
Bias 4.88%, overwhelmingly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 443.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 417.67 to 468.33 (+/- 5.7%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 418.55 to 467.45
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.4%): 383.59 to 502.41
Based on DOWN max only (-3.9%): 425.90

Open to requests for other symbols.

DVA earnings analysis (for tomorrow)

#Earnings $DVA reports THURSDAY after the bell. By request, here are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 5, 2020 AC +4.41%
Feb. 10, 2020 AC +6.94%
Nov. 5, 2019 AC +12.92% Biggest UP
Aug. 1, 2019 AC +1.28%
May 7, 2019 AC -8.55%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC +0.29%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -7.79%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +5.34%
May 3, 2018 AC +4.86%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +1.64%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -7.83%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC -8.84% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 5.89%
Bias 0.39%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 90.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 85.35 to 94.65 (+/- 5.2%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 84.70 to 95.30
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 78.37 to 101.63
Based on DOWN max only (-8.8%): 82.04

Open to requests for other symbols.

QCOM earnings analysis

#Earnings $QCOM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 29, 2020 AC -0.37%
Feb. 5, 2020 AC -0.32%
Nov. 6, 2019 AC +6.32%
July 31, 2019 AC -2.67%
May 1, 2019 AC +0.89%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -1.29%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -8.16% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2018 AC +7.00% Biggest UP
April 25, 2018 AC +1.44%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -2.12%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC +2.58%
July 19, 2017 AC -4.94%

Avg (+ or -) 3.18%
Bias -0.14%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 92.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 87.12 to 97.88 (+/- 5.8%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 89.56 to 95.44
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 84.95 to 100.05
Based on UP max only (+7.0%): 98.98

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 29th 3125/3145-3265/3285 condors for 1.65, IV 18.1%, SPX 3219, deltas: -.06, +.09

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close July 29th 3270/3290 call spreads for .75… as usual, I get the direction wrong! Wanted to close up to get 3.00 or more for this.

SHOP earnings analysis

#Earnings $SHOP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 6, 2020 BO +6.91%
Feb. 12, 2020 BO +7.81%
Oct. 29, 2019 BO -3.81%
Aug. 1, 2019 BO +7.39%
April 30, 2019 BO +7.85%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO +1.37%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +12.03% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO -6.66%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.45%
Feb. 15, 2018 BO +0.28%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2017 BO +5.77%

Avg (+ or -) 6.11%
Bias 2.12%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 982.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 895.07 to 1068.93 (+/- 8.9%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 921.98 to 1042.02
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.0%): 863.87 to 1100.13
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 893.42

Open to requests for other symbols.

AMD earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMD reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 28, 2020 AC -3.33%
Jan. 28, 2020 AC -5.97%
Oct. 29, 2019 AC +0.30%
July 30, 2019 AC -10.09%
April 30, 2019 AC -2.96%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +19.94% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC -15.44% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2018 AC +14.33%
April 25, 2018 AC +13.69%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC +6.75%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -13.47%
July 25, 2017 AC +4.60%

Avg (+ or -) 9.24%
Bias 0.70%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 69.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 62.72 to 75.28 (+/- 9.1%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 62.62 to 75.38
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.9%): 55. 24 to 82.76
Based on DOWN max only (-15.4%): 58.35

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX July 29th 3260/3240 put spreads for 14.00. Condors bought last Wednesday for 16.95. Looking to avoid a possible danger zone tomorrow, and sell the call spread on a bounce.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 3rd 3215/3235-3245/3265 condors for 17.05, with SPX at 3238.

#SPX1dte Expiring: 3115/3135-3270/3290 condors, sold Friday for 1.25.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX July 27th 3245/3225 put spreads for 13.10. Condors bought last Monday for 16.75. Too much risk of this closing near or in the dead zone, so locking in a 3.65 loss now rather than possibly more later.

FFIV earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $FFIV reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 27, 2020 AC +7.59% Biggest UP
Jan. 27, 2020 AC -5.04%
Oct. 23, 2019 AC +5.50%
July 24, 2019 AC -0.65%
April 24, 2019 AC -1.08%
Jan. 23, 2019 AC -2.22%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.10%
July 25, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 25, 2018 AC +0.89%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.05%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +3.97%
July 26, 2017 AC -7.16% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 3.86%
Bias 0.33%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 153.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 143.53 to 162.47 (+/- 6.2%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 147.09 to 158.91
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.6%): 141.39 to 164.61
Based on DOWN max only (-7.2%): 142.05

NOTE: 5-day max moves are roughly the same as 1-day

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 27th 3115/3135-3270/3290 condors for 1.25, IV 13.12%, SPX 3213, deltas -.06, +.05.

Expiring: July 24th 3125/3145-3290/3310 condors, sold yesterday for .95

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 31st 3185/3205-3215/3235 condors for 17.55, with SPX at 3213.

Hanging on the edge to end the day below 3205 for full profit on today’s.

Econ Calendar for week of 7/27/20

Screen Shot 2020-07-24 at 10.53.24 AM

Screen Shot 2020-07-24 at 10.49.56 AM

Link to calendar:

EW closed

#Earnings. Legged out of $EW 24Jul/31Jul 78 #DoubleCalendar as two straddles. Couldn’t ask for a better move on the stock.
Bought to close $EW July 24th 78 straddles for 1.051.
Sold to close $EW July 31st 78 straddles for 2.822

#DoubleCalendars Bought for .742 yesterday, sold for 1.771.

SPX spec

#SPX1dte Bought to Open $SPX July 29th 3310/3325 call spreads for 1.80. Spec play based on pullback during Upside Warning.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1te Sold to Open $SPX July 24th 3125/3145-3290/3310 condors for .95, IV 19.05%, SPX 3232, deltas: -.05, +.05.

EW earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $EW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 23, 2020 AC +1.10%
Jan. 30, 2020 AC -6.03%
Oct. 23, 2019 AC +1.63%
July 23, 2019 AC +9.93% Biggest UP
April 23, 2019 AC -1.79%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -1.00%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -5.35%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2017 AC +0.64%

Avg (+ or -) 4.43%
Bias -1.58%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 61.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 73.37 to 83.03 (+/- 6.2%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 74.74 to 81.66
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.9%): 70.43 to 85.97
Based on DOWN max only (-9.6%): 70.73

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

TSLA condor closed

#Earnings $TSLA July 24th 1375/1385-1880/1885 condors closed for .40. Sold yesterday for 3.45.

INTC earnings analysis

#Earnings $INTC reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 23, 2020 AC +0.37%
Jan. 23, 2020 AC +8.13%
Oct. 24, 2019 AC +8.09%
July 25, 2019 AC -1.09%
April 25, 2019 AC -8.99% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 24, 2019 AC -5.46%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +3.11%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.58%
April 26, 2018 AC -0.60%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC +10.55% Biggest UP
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +7.37%
July 27, 2017 AC +0.97%

Avg (+ or -) 5.28%
Bias 1.16%%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 61.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 58.17 to 63.83 (+/- 4.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 57.78 to 64.22
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.6%): 54.56 to 67.44
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 55.52

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 29th 3240/3260-3270/3290 condors for 16.95, with SPX at 3268.

Expiring: July 22nd 3230/3250 call spreads for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Wednesday for 17.40.

#SPX1dte Expiring: July 22nd 3165/3185-3310/3330 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.

MSFT earnings analysis

#Earnings $MSFT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 29, 2020 AC +1.00%
Jan. 29, 2020 AC +2.82%
Oct. 23, 2019 AC +1.96%
July 18, 2019 AC +0.14%
April 24, 2019 AC +3.31%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -1.83% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +5.84%
July 19, 2018 AC +1.79%
April 26, 2018 AC +1.65%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -0.78%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +6.41% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC -0.57%

Avg (+ or -) 2.34%
Bias 1.81%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 211.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 201.16 to 220.84 (+/- 4.7%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 206.06 to 215.94
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.4%): 197.47 to 224.53
Based on DOWN max only (-1.8%): 207.14

Open to requests for other symbols.

TSLA earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $TSLA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 29, 2020 AC -2.32%
Jan. 29, 2020 AC +10.29%
Oct. 23, 2019 AC +17.66% Biggest UP
July 24, 2019 AC -13.61% Biggest DOWN
April 24, 2019 AC -4.26%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -0.56%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18%
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +6.50%

Avg (+ or -) 8.46%
Bias 1.51%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 1600.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1363.21 to 1836.79 (+/- 14.8%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1464.72 to 1735.28
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.7%): 1317.44 to 1882.56
Based on DOWN max only (-13.6%): 1382.24

Open to requests for other symbols.

CMG earnings analysis

#Earnings $CMG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 21, 2020 AC +12.14%
Feb. 4, 2020 AC -3.48%
Oct. 22, 2019 AC -5.15%
July 23, 2019 AC +5.18%
April 24, 2019 AC -4.46%
Feb. 6, 2019 AC +11.35%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +3.42%
July 26, 2018 AC +5.71%
April 25, 2018 AC +24.44% Biggest UP
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -10.55%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -14.58% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2017 AC -2.30%

Avg (+ or -) 8.56%
Bias 1.81%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 1170.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1091.56 to 1248.44 (+/- 6.7%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1069.81 to 1270.19
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.4%): 884.05 to 1455.95
Based on DOWN max only (-14.6%): 999.41

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 22nd 3165/3185-3310/3330 condors for 1.10, IV: 17.19%, SPX 3257, deltas: -.06, +.06

ISRG earnings analysis

#Earnings $ISRG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 16, 2020 AC +3.11%
Jan. 23, 2020 AC -4.19%
Oct. 17, 2019 AC +6.96%
July 18, 2019 AC -1.45%
April 18, 2019 AC -7.00% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 24, 2019 AC -3.93%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC -3.45%
July 19, 2018 AC -0.86%
April 17, 2018 AC +8.17% Biggest UP
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -2.12%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +3.39%
July 20, 2017 AC -4.55%

Avg (+ or -) 4.10%
Bias -0.49%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 665.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 627.36 to 702.64 (+/- 5.7%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 637.75 to 692.25
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 610.67 to 719.33
Based on DOWN max only (-7.0%): 618.45

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 27th 3225/3245-3255/3275 condors for 16.75, with SPX close at 3251.

Expired with max 20.00 credit: June 20th 3190/3210 call spreads. Condors bought for 17.40 last Monday.

#SPX1dte #RiskReversal expired worthless, keeping .35 credit from Friday.

Is it blasphemy to call THIS the best Rolling Stones tune?

Teaser clip for episode 10: InRocktrination.

Upside to come

The #VIXIndicator fired a bullish signal at the close. This indicates the likelihood of a further move higher in the coming days or weeks.

SPX 1-dte & NFLX

#SPX1dte #RiskReversal for Monday. Placed as one trade with SPX at 3229, IV 13.7%, total credit: .35. Aggressive positioning based on Upside Warning:
Sold $SPX July 20th 3185/3165 put spreads for 2.07, ∆ -.17
Bought $SPX July 20th 3270/3285 call spreads for 1.72, ∆ +.14

Expiring: July 17th 3115/3135-3270/3285 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15.

#Earnings Also expiring, $NFLX July 17th 460/465-590/595 condors, sold yesterday for 1.446

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 24th 3205/3225-3235/3255 condors for 16.95, with SPX at 3230.

Expiring today: July 17th 3180/3200 call spreads for max of 20.00. Condors bought last Friday for 17.25.

VXX longs

#VXXGame Bought to open $VXX Aug 21st 65 calls for .50. Added to a large number of 85’s I have for same expiry. I have not yet sold against these, but will look to do on next down turn. I have a smaller number of long $UVXY 90 calls expiring today, average purchase price .47.

Econ Calendar for week of 7/20/20

Screen Shot 2020-07-17 at 11.06.08 AM

Screen Shot 2020-07-16 at 6.24.58 AM

Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

Upside coming?

#VIXIndicator – Looks like we will get an Upside Warning at the close.

I have posted for the last two years about #DoubleHeaders, where we get a Downside Warning canceled, followed by another DW without an Upside in between. They have become more common and I have been getting a bigger database to analyze. I missed an Upside Warning on May 27th. The SPX closed at 3036 that day, then ran up to its recent high of 3233 on June 8th. After that, I tweaked the Indicator again so we can catch the rallies in the #DoubleHeader environment.

So if $VIX closes below 28.02 today, we can expect another run up. However I would say it is a less reliable Upside Warning with VIX still in the high 20’s.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 17th (PM) 3110/3130-3275/3295 condors for 1.15, IV 20.2%, SPX 3211, ∆ -.06,+.05

NFLX trade

#Earnings Sold to Open $NFLX July 17th 460/465-590/595 condors for 1.445. Filled quickly on an order for 1.40, so I clearly asked for too little. Short strikes at historical max moves.

NFLX earnings analysis

#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 21, 2020 AC -2.86%
Jan. 21, 2020 AC -3.58%
Oct. 16, 2019 AC +2.46%
July 17, 2019 AC -10.27% Biggest DOWN
April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 5.77%
Bias 0.97%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 520.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 467.05 to 572.95 (+/- 10.2%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 490.00 to 550.00
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 449.59 to 590.41
Based on DOWN max only (-10.3%): 466.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to Close $SPX July 15th 3170/3190 call spreads for 19.40. Bought condors for 17.40 last Wednesday. Not gonna get caught in another reversal today.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 15th 3255/3275 call spreads for 3.00. Condors sold for 1.00 yesterday, but stop was hit this morning.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 15th 3080/3100-3255/3275 condors for 1.00, IV 21.25%, SPX 3198 (close), deltas -.05, +.06. Filled three minutes after the closing bell.

GS earnings analysis

#Earnings $GS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 15, 2020 BO +0.16%
Jan. 15, 2020 BO -0.18%
Oct. 15, 2019 BO +0.31%
July 16, 2019 BO +1.86%
April 15, 2019 BO -3.81% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +9.54% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01%
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%

Avg (+ or -) 2.31%
Bias 0.17%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 211.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 201.02 to 221.98 (+/- 5.0%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 206.61 to 216.39
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 191.32 to 231.68
Based on DOWN max only (-3.8%): 203.44

Open to requests for other symbols.

Episode 11 – Second to Nun

So much to stream, including badass nuns, bad crass singers, and terrorists in first class. And, Kevin turns the tables on Jeff with the guessing game. More details and links at https://thepickcast.com

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 20th 3160/3180-3190/3210 condors for 17.40, with SPX at 3183.

My expiration for today looked like an easy winner and then we had the collapse. Now at mercy of the close.

Episode 10 – Inrocktrination

We try to convince a country-music-loving college student that rock’n’roll is here to stay. Plus new music from Anderson.Paak, Nicole Atkins, Amber Mark, Bob Dylan, and more. And, we revisit KISW’s Top 1000 Rock songs of all time, as compiled in 1987. Playlists and more details at https://thepickcast.com

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte I didn’t place a trade for Monday. I was actually trying to place another bullish #Risk Reversal but couldn’t get filled before time ran out.

Expiring: $SPX June 10th 3055/3075-3215/3235 condors, sold yesterday for 1.40.

#SPX7dteLong Expiring at full 20.00 credit: June 10th 3155/3175 calls spread. Condors bought for 17.00 on June 2nd. Closed today for 20.50, total credit.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 17th 3150/3170-3180/3200 condors for 17.25, with SPX at 3177.

Econ Calendar for week of 7/13/20

Screen Shot 2020-07-10 at 10.48.51 AM
Screen Shot 2020-07-10 at 10.48.51 AM

Link to Calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to Close $SPX June 10th 3145/3125 put spreads for .50. I have no choice now but to rely on the call side for profit, so dumping the put side. Need a close above 3175 for max profit.