SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 18th (weeklys) 2850/2870-2925/2945 condors for .90. (IV 9.42% SPX 2901)

I’m going to close the put side of my monthly spread to avoid gap risk. Hopefully for .10, but may be .15 or .20.

HON dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $HON Apr18/Apr26 162.5 #DoubleCalendar for .55.

SKX strangle

Earnings #LongStrangle
Was planning for a #LongStraddle but since price is between strikes and stock has bullish bias on earnings,

Bought $SKX 35/35.5 strangle for 4.15. Need a 12.5% move in either direction to breakeven. Avg move on stock has been 16.2%.

AXP dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $AXP Apr18/Apr26 112 #DoubleCalendar for .48.

Also looking at a Dub Cal for $HON and a #LongStraddle on $SKX

HON earnings analysis

#Earnings $HON reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 1, 2019 BO +0.75%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -1.10%
July 20, 2018 BO +3.78% Biggest UP
April 20, 2018 BO +1.64%
Jan. 26, 2018 BO +1.94%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO +1.20%
July 21, 2017 BO +1.03%
April 21, 2017 BO +2.67%
Jan. 27, 2017 BO +0.38%
Oct. 21, 2016 BO +0.75%
July 22, 2016 BO -2.57% Biggest DOWN
April 22, 2016 BO -0.65%

Avg (+ or -) 1.54%
Bias 0.82%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 163.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.33 to 167.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 160.49 to 165.51
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (3.8%): 156.84 to 169.16
Based on DOWN max only (-2.6%): 158.81

Open to requests for other symbols.

SKX earnings analysis

#Earnings $SKX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 7, 2019 AC +15.19%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +13.78%
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +41.44% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC +0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%
April 21, 2016 AC +6.26%

Avg (+ or -) 16.20%
Bias 1.17%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 35.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 30.85 to 39.55
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 29.50 to 40.90
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (41.4%): 20.61 to 49.79
Based on DOWN max only (-27.0%): 25.68

Open to requests for other symbols.

AXP earnings analysis

#Earnings $AXP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 17, 2019 AC +0.99%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +3.78%
July 18, 2018 AC -2.72% Biggest DOWN
April 18, 2018 AC +7.58%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -1.83%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -0.19%
July 19, 2017 AC -0.67%
April 19, 2017 AC +5.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC -0.63%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +9.02% Biggest UP
July 20, 2016 AC -1.62%
April 20, 2016 AC +0.90%

Avg (+ or -) 2.99%
Bias 1.71%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 111.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 107.89 to 115.11
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 108.17 to 114.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.0%): 101.44 to 121.56
Based on DOWN max only (-2.7%): 108.47

Open to requests for other symbols.