CREE earnings analysis

#Earnings $CREE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 1, 2019 AC +2.17%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +2.04%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.11%
Aug. 14, 2018 AC -7.77%
April 24, 2018 AC -0.27%
Jan. 23, 2018 AC +2.74%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +16.42% Biggest UP
Aug. 22, 2017 AC -3.56%
April 25, 2017 AC -11.07%
Jan. 24, 2017 AC +5.18%
Oct. 18, 2016 AC -11.07%
Aug. 16, 2016 AC -14.91% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 6.86%
Bias -1.25%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 58.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.27 to 63.73
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 54.49 to 62.51
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.4%): 48.89 to 68.11
Based on DOWN max only (-14.9%): 49.78

Open to requests for other symbols.

CREE calendar

#Earnings Kind of asleep at the wheel today, got to earnings very late. Buying a $CREE 58.5dub cal – will post details in a moment.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 21st 2840/2850-2945/2955 condors for .55. 10-wide, double sized. IV 14.15%, 2906.

Closed Aug 21st 2900/2925 call spreads of ra loss at 12.00. Sold for 5.00 last week. Let this run too long, but at least a pullback came today. A weakness in my strategy I must address.

UBER strangle

#PerpetualRollingStrangles Sold to Open $UBER Sept 13th 32.5/38 strangles for 1.12

SPX 4-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 23rd 2815/2840-2980/3005 condors for 2.90. IV 16.68%, SPX 2926.

DRIP dropped

#ContangoETFs Bought to close $DROP Sept 20th 175 call for 2.00. Sold for 6.70 last Wednesday. Take a cue from Ramie and closing these far OTM calls when I can to help chip away at the burden of short 115 calls that have gone ITM a few times.

HD earnings analysis

#Earnings $HD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 21, 2019 BO +0.26%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO -0.88%
Nov. 13, 2018 BO -0.23%
Aug. 14, 2018 BO -0.53%
May 15, 2018 BO -1.62%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -0.13%
Nov. 14, 2017 BO +1.63% Biggest UP
Aug. 15, 2017 BO -2.65% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2017 BO +0.59%
Feb. 21, 2017 BO +1.41%
Nov. 15, 2016 BO -2.56%
Aug. 16, 2016 BO -0.60%

Avg (+ or -) 1.09%
Bias -0.44%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 207.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 198.50 to 215.50
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 204.74 to 209.26
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (2.7%): 201.51 to 212.49
Based on UP max only (1.6%): 210.37

Open to requests for other symbols.