SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Oct 6th 3665/3685-3860/3880 condors, sold yesterday for 1.45.

I am traveling back to LA tomorrow to start work on a new show. So no trade now, and not sure if I’ll be around in the morning to place a same-day. Look out for the JOBS report at 8:30am Eastern, 5:30am Pacific.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte … And on the third day, the market rested, and did NOT stop me out of my trade.

Expiring: Oct 5th 3655/3675-3860/3880 condors, sold yesterday for 1.25

Sold to open $SPX Oct 6th 3665/3685-3860/3880 condors for 1.45, SPX at 3781, IV 28%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 5th 3655/3675-3860/3880 condors for 1.25, SPX at 3778, IV 28.75%, delta -.06 +.06

Expiring: My 2nd attempt, Oct 4th 3710/3730-3835/3855 condors, sold this morning for 1.70. Loss on day: -.60

Trying Again

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 4th 3710/3730-3835/3855 condors for 1.70, SPX at 3778 at 7:31am Pacific Time. IV 39.7%, deltas -.14 +.05

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX Oct 4th (same day) 3615/3635-3790/3810 condors for 1.70, IV 42.3%, deltas -.05 +.06

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Oct 3rd 3695/3715 call spreads for .90. Sold this morning for 1.45.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to Open $SPX Oct 3rd (same day) 3500/3520-3695/3715 condors for 1.45, IV 60.7%, deltas -.05 +.05

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte No new trade…. this plunge in final minutes is a clear enough sign to WAIT until Monday.

Expiring: $SPX Sept 30th 3490/3510-3750/3770 condors, sold yesterday for 1.75.

SPX1dte

#SPX1dte Sold 6 minutes after closing bell: $SPX Sept 30th 3490/3510-3750/3770 condors for 1.75, SPX closed at 3640, IV 40.8%, deltas -.05 +.06

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Well, my instincts were correct to wait until morning to sell, but in the end made little difference.

Bought to close $SPX Sept 29th 3590/3570 put spreads for 3.40. Condors sold for 1.45 this morning. First loss of the week.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX Sept 29th 3570/3590-3775/3795 condors for 1.45, IV 53.6%, deltas -.05 +.05

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte No trade placed this afternoon, will wait for morning

Expired: $SPX Sept 28th 3515/3535-3740/3760 condors, sold for 1.60 yesterday.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte My stop was not hit, but I don’t trust this market… BTC $SPX Sept 27th 3590/3570 put spreads for .60. Condors sold this morning for 1.70.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, Sold to Open $SPX Sept 27th 3570/3590-3765/3785 condors for 1.70, IV 51.3%, deltas -.05 +.06

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Sept 27th 3750/3770-3780/3800 condors for 19.15. Bought for 17.80 on Thursday.

#SPX1dte Expiring: Sept 26th 3525/3550-3800/3825 condors, sold Friday for 1.40.

No trade placed for tomorrow due to insufficient premium to get safely OTM. Will consider a same-day trade in the morning.

Downside WARNING FIRED

#VIXindicator A warning fired at the close today with the $VIX over 29.00. The last warning in April took 39 trading days before reaching the market low, about a 15% drop. Before that, this warning was not a great indicator in 2021, with many small drops & short-lived drops. This time, we have been dropping for weeks and it took awhile to finally fire.

Here are recent Downside Warnings for reference:
Fired 4/22/22, at the SPX close of 4,272. The SPX low of 3,637 was 39 trading days later (-14.9%)
Fired 2/11/22, at the SPX close of 4,419. The SPX low of 4,115 was 8 trading days later (-6.9%).
Fired 1/20/22, at the SPX close of 4,483. The SPX low of 4,223 was 2 trading days later (-5.8%).
Fired 11/26/21, at the SPX close of 4,585. The SPX low of 4,495 was 5 trading days later (-2.0%).
Fired 9/20/21, canceled quickly but fired again on 9/28/21, at the SPX close of 4,353. The SPX low of 4,278 was 4 trading days later (-1.7%).
Fired 8/18/21, at the SPX close of 4,427. The SPX low of 4,368 was the next day, so another FALSE warning (-1.3%).
Fired 7/19/21, at the SPX close of 4,258. The SPX low was also that day, so this was a FALSE warning.
Fired 5/11/21, at the SPX close of 4,152. The SPX low was the next day at 4,056, so basically a FALSE warning. It dipped again 5 trading days after that to 4,061, then recovered from there(-2.3%).
Fired 2/25/21, at the SPX close of 3,829. The SPX low of 3,723 was 5 trading days later (-2.8%).
ired 1/27/21, at the SPX close of 3,750. The SPX low of 3,694 was only 2 days later (-1.5%).
Fired 9/3/20, at the SPX close of 3,455. The SPX low of 3,209 was 3 weeks later on Sep 24th (-7.1%).

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 26th 3525/3550-3800/3825 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3691, IV 22.9%, deltas -.05 +.05. These are 25-points wide, as not all strikes available so low on the put side. Also went with 5 deltas rather than usual 6 for a bit more safety.

Week in review:
#SPX5dte one loss: -2.20
#SPX1dte: two losses, three wins: +0.70
Same day Fed trade, Friday revenge trade: 2 wins: +7.00

Total for week: +5.50

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Sept 23rd 3680/3660 put spreads for 5.05. Condors sold yesterday for 1.75.

Another Friday where most of the week’s profit is obliterated. Even though a Downside Warning has not yet fired (it may today), I’m going to need to switch back to same day trades to account for overnight moves. It also is becoming a pattern where a big move (like last Tuesday after CPI and this Wednesday after FOMC) is followed by a quiet day, but then a sharper move will occur a day or two later.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Sept 27th 3750/3770-3780/3800 condors for 17.80, with SPX at 3786.

#spx1dte

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 22nd 3650/3670-3920/3940 condors for 1.35, SPX at 3798, IV 38.8%, deltas -.05 +.06

SPX 2 hour trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 21st 3770/3750 put spreads for 3.40.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte SAME DAY: Sold to open $SPX Sept 21st 3720/3740-3995/4015 condors for 1.60, SPX at 3872, IV 77.4%, deltas -.05 +.04.

IV incredibly high, probably as a result of the huge move we had last Tuesday after inflation report. I felt these strikes were far enough OTM, with lower deltas than I normally sell, to place the trade before Fed announcement.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Sept 20th 3815/3795 put spreads for 2.00. Condors sold for 1.50 yeasterday.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 20th 3795/3815-3970/3990 condors for 1.50, SPX at 3896, IV 24.5%, deltas -.06 + .06

Expiring: Sept 19th 3740/3760-3965/3985 condors, sold Friday for 1.55

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 19th 3740/3760-3965/3985 for 1.55. Sold 42 minutes before close, when SPX was at 3865, deltas -.06 +.05. SPX closed 8 points higher at 3873, so deltas ended trading at -.04 +.05

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Sept 16th 3800/3780 put spreads for 2.70. Condors sold yesterday for 1.30.

Another Friday stop to blunt most profit from the week. Last week was flat, but this week I netted 1.40, with 3 wins and 2 losses.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Sept 20th 3895/3915-3925/3945 condors for 17.65, with SPX at 3919.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX Sept 15th 3810/3830-4025/4045 condors for 1.35, SPX at 3941, IV 29.8%, deltas -.06 +.06

Expiring: Sept 14th 3795/3815-4025/4045 condors, sold yesterday for 1.50.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX 3980/4000-4010/4030 condors for 18.00. Bought last week for 17.75. Tomorrow too unpredictable to hang on for more.

#spx1dte

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Sept 13th 3985/3970 put spreads for 3.05. Condors sold for 1.50 yesterday.

August CPI

Up 0.1% vs. expected Down 0.1%. Up 8.3% on the year, vs. +8.0% estimate.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 13th 3970/3985-4210/4225 condors for 1.45, SPX at 4105, IV 33.8%, deltas -.06 +.06. This has 15 point wide wings since there is no 4230 available.

Expiring: Sept 12th 3965/3985-4150/4170 condors, sold Friday for 1.25

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 12th 3965/3985-4150/4170 condors for 1.25, IV 14%, deltas -.06 +.05

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX 4065/4085 call spreads for 5.00. Condors sold for 1.50 yesterday.

That wiped out the entire week’s profits. I’m trying very hard to make this strategy work… and to be clear, it IS working. But setbacks can happen very easily if I stray the tiniest bit from any rule. This morning my stop was hit BEFORE the open, so I was looking for best pullback. However, rather than follow my rule of “don’t delay” I tried to tease the market just a little lower by adjusting my limit order. I could have been out for about 2.15 had I just made sure to get filled on the first pullback at 6:45.

It is, of course, Murphy’s Law that when I DO go for the fill aggressively, the market pulls back much lower. But if I don’t, it inevitably goes higher, like this morning.

As most of you know, I have been at this #SPX1dte strategy for a few years. I have slowly been eliminating my bad habits. The main change this summer has been to stop playing around after a stop is hit (my stop is if SPX gets within the day’s “expected move,” visible on Think-or-swim’s option chain). That has gotten me out at decent prices, either holding on to some profit or incurring losses equal or less than my max profit. Today, I failed and I “played around”.

One thing I need to measure, which may take another year of data to assess, is whether not using any stop would be more profitable in the long run. The majority of times I am stopped out, the trade would have survived had I left it. If those instances outnumber the times where my strikes are blown through significantly enough, then “letting it go” may be the way of the future. It would have to mean that one loss of -19.00 is exceeded a lot by ignored stops where .90 to 1.50 in profit is realized, and losses are avoided.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 9th 3880/3900-4065/4085 condors for 1.50, SPX 3992, IV 24.9%, deltas -.06 +.06

Expired: Sept 8th 3865/3885-4060/4080 condors, sold yesterday for 1.55

#SPX5dte trades to follow in comments

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 8th 3865/3885-4060/4080 condors for 1.55, SPX 3981, IV 26.6%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Sept 7th 3995 calls for .60. Condors sold yesterday for 1.20.

Left the long call open which I will sell if we spike even higher.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 7th 3795/3815-3995/4015 condors for 1.20, SPX at 3906, IV 26.4%, deltas -.05 +.05

Expired: Sept 6th 3790/3810-4015/4035 condors, sold Friday for 1.45

SPX 5-dte

#SPX5dte Bought to open $SPX Sept 9th 3930/3950-3960/3980 condors for 17.85, when SPX was at 3900. I was trying to get filled on a long condor Friday but couldn’t get a fill below 18.00. In these volatile markets sometimes uncentered condors can fill for cheaper than a centered one.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 6th 3790/3810-4015/4035 condors for 1.45, SPX at 3918, IV 16.45%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Sept 2nd 3910/3890 put spreads for 3.00. Almost finished the week scot free. This shows the value of closing when you can, since this put side got down to .20 or less at the highs.

Total credit on the calls and puts was 1.90 this morning so this is 1.10 loss on the day.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market after jobs report released, sold to open $SPX Sept 2nd 4060/4080 call spreads for 1.20.

Looking for a fill on the put side.

August Jobs report

#Jobs — Meeting expectations this time, less than July but still strong. Participation moved up, also pushing UE up.

Gain of +315,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 318K
Unemployment at 3.7%, up by 0.2
U6 unemployment 7.0%, up by 0.3
Labor force participation 62.4%, up by 0.3
Average hourly earnings up by 0.3%; 5.2% increase over the year

July jobs revised down by -2K to +526K
June jobs revised down by -105K to +293K

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX Sept 1st 3845/3865-4005/4025 condors for 1.35. Deltas -.06 +.06

SPX 5-dte

#SPX5dte Sold to close HALF of my position: $SPX Sept 1st 4090/4110 call spreads for 1.75. This adds on to the sale of put spreads yesterday for 17.85.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Sept 1st 4080/4060 put spreads for 17.85. Condors bought for 17.80 last Friday. So I’m breakeven now, holding calls until tomorrow in case we have any spike up in the morning.

#SPX1dte Sold to OPEN Aug 31st 3865/3885-4055/4075 condors for 1.50, SPX at 3980, IV 26.3%, deltas -.05 +.07

SPX1-dte

#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX Aug 29th 3925/3945-4145/4165 condors, sold Friday for 1.20.

No trade for Tuesday as I will be on a flight.

No Warning, actually

#VIXindicator Turned out I made an error on Friday… wasn’t watching the numbers closely enough, but there was no Downside Warning. Despite the big drop, the $VIX action wasn’t as strong as you might expect and fell short of the 27.23 close required to fire the Warning. That level is still in effect today as a closing trigger.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought right before the bell: $SPX Sept 1 4060/4080-4090/4110 condors for 17.80.

#SPX1dte Sold right after the bell: $SPX Aug 29th 3925/3945-4145/4165 condors for 1.20, SPX close 4057, IV 17%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPXdte Put side stopped, bought to close $SPX Aug 26th 4080/4060 put spreads for 1.05. Condors sold for 1.70 yesterday.

SPX 5-dte

#SPX5dte After weeks of success I screwed up pretty badly today on this long condor. After missing the chance to exit on the big swings during Powell’s speech, I felt the action was bullish so wanted to exit the put spreads first. I did for 4.00 as it started down, but then it dropped WAY down. Now it looks like no bounce will come, or at least not one big enough to make the 4165/4185 call side profitable enough.

My recent strategy has been going well, using #SPX1dte as a base and then throwing in a long condor about once per week. However, I’m wary that the long strategy is inherently more risky. The best bet is to try to exit before expiration day, and indeed, today is the first week in awhile where I waited for expiration day. I did that because the week was pretty flat, giving me no obvious swings with which to exit.

During Powell’s speech, when we dropped, I set an order to sell the put spreads at 8.00. We had just hit about 8.50 so was trying to pick a bottom. Turns out I did pick it, but set my order a few seconds too late as the bounce began. Then we bounced way up and could have exited for 13.00 or more. That would have ended my day. But alas, now I’m pretty much screwed.

I don’t like relying on a strategy that is that fragile. The loss I’ll take today, as much as 13.75, is made up by the last few weeks of profit on this 5-dte trade, but it is a shame that my overall progress takes a big step back. So what I’ve determined is that I need to take a loss on the day before expiration if the SPX is still near the center of my condor. Typically, that would result in a 1.00 to 3.00 loss, which is completely acceptable. Going into expiration day could mean a big win, but only if you play the swings exactly right. So that risk of big loss is too great to risk.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 4060/4080-4280/4300 condors for 1.70, SPX at 4189, IV 29.3%, deltas -.06 +.06

Expiring: Aug 25th 4060/4080-4205/4220 condors, sold yesterday for 1.50.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte One of these days I’m gonna pick the RIGHT day to go long. Today wasn’t it. So I’m selling a 1-hour-50-minute condor to recoup some loss: Sold to Open $SPX Aug 24th 4100/4120-4165/4185 condors for .90, with SPX at 4139.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Such a quiet day after two stormy ones… I decided to go LONG on tomorrow’s as I can’t imagine two days like this in a row.

Bought to open $SPX Aug 24th 4030/4050-4200/4220 condors for 1.25. Deltas -.05 +.05

Expired: Aug 23rd 4040/4060-4210/4230 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30

Upside Warning canceled

#VIXindicator If $VIX closes at 24.45 or higher it will be Downside Warning.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to open $SPX Aug 26th 4135/4155-4165/4185 condors for 17.75, SPX at 4143.

Will add 1-dte trade to comments when I sell in a couple hours.

#spx1dte

SPX stopped – Upside Warning ending?

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 22nd 4150/4130 put spreads for 3.40. Condors sold for 1.45 on Friday.

#VIXindicator Thus far the $SPX peaked at 4325 on the 16th, a 4.3% rise from the start of the Upside Warning on the 5th. It would take an intraday $VIX peak of 24.45 today to cancel the UpW.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 22nd 4130/4150-4295/4315 condors for 1.45.

Week-end results:
#SPX1dte: 2 wins, 2 losses, +1.70
#SPX5dte: 1 win, +3.10

TOTAL +4.80

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Thursday’s condor expired, sold Wednesday for 1.20.

No trade for Friday as I’m vacationing in Vancouver BC at the moment. It was over 95 degrees here today!

SPX1dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 18th 4180/4200-4345/4365 condors for 1.20, SPX at 4276, IV 19.8%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 17th 4230/4210 put spreads for 2.00. Condors sold yesterday for 1.20.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 17th 4210/4230-4360/4380 condors for 1.20, SPX at 4306, IV 17.9%, deltas -.06 +.06

Expiring: Aug 16th 4215/4235-4350/4370 condors, sold yesterday for 1.60.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 16th 4215/4235-4350/4370 condors for 1.60, SPX at 4298, deltas -.07 +.08, IV 17.4%

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 15th 4310/4330 call spreads for 1.25. Condors sold for .95 this morning.

Selling these in the morning definitely more difficult now, so I can’t be forgetting like I did on Friday. Had I sold then, my short call strike would have probably been 4340.

SPX 5-dte

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Aug 17th 4260/4240 put spreads for 7.50. I’m sensing we will again test the 4280 level (or higher) so selling the put side now. Condors bought for 16.40 on Friday.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 15th 4175/4195-4310/4330 condors for .95, deltas -.06 +.05

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Aug 17th 4240/4260-4270/4290 condors for 16.40, SPX at 4265.

#spx1dte

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 12th 4275/4295 call spreads for 1.40. Condors sold for 1.20 this morning.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX Aug 12th 4145/4165-4275/4295 condors for 1.20, IV 27.5%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX 1-dte

Did not return from errands in time so I will place a same-day trade in the morning before the open.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 11th 4270/4290 call spreads for 1.90. Condors sold yesterday for 1.20. Looks like Upside Warning coming through this time.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte After the closing bell, sold to open $SPX Aug 11th 4115/4135-4270/4290 condors for 1.20, IV 18.9%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX trades

#SPX1dte No trade for tomorrow as I will be traveling and don’t want to tangle with the CPI report release (inflation for July).

Expected to expire today: $SPX Aug 9th 4055/4075-4205/4225 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 9th 4055/4075-4205/4225 condors for 1.30, SPX at 4141, IV 18.84%, deltas -.07 +.05

Expiring: Aug 8th 4055/4075-4215/4235 condors, sold Friday for 1.45.

Looking to close the other half of #SX5dte Aug 10th call spread before SPX trading stops at 4:15 ET

#spx5dte

SPX 5-dte

#SPX5dte Sold to close HALF of my position, $SPX Aug 10th 4160/4180 call spreads for 12.00, at 7:44 PT when SPX was at 4182. Bought for 7.00 on Friday.

Planned to hold the rest for more, but then we dropped pretty sharply. Hope this isn’t another head-fake Upside Warning, but it definitely could be, given the uncertainty in the economy.