SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Dec 2nd 3630/3650 call spreads for 19.10, to avoid any possible dump into the close. Iron Condors bought last Wednesday for 16.00; sold today for a total of 20.35.

#SPX1dte Expected to expire: 3575/3595-3710/3730 condors, sold yesterday for .90.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Dec 7th 3635/3655-3665/3685 iron condors for 15.65, with SPX at 3659. Forgot to buy this one yesterday.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 2nd 3620/3600 put spreads for 1.25. Banking on 3630/3650 call side to make the bulk of profit. Condors bought last Wednesday for 16.00.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open (right after closing bell) $SPX Dec 2nd 3575/3595-3710/3730 iron condors for .90, SPX close at 3661, IV 13.6%, deltas: -.06, +.06

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Dec 4th 3590/3610-3620/3640 iron condors for 16.45, with SPX at 3615.

Volatility has dropped, but still above 20. Today is the first expiration where this strategy has “missed” in several weeks. We may be in consolidation near 3600 so it could become tricky for awhile here.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Nov 30th 3625/3605 put spreads for 6.10. Condors bought last Tuesday for 15.65. trading in the dead zone this morning but I am banking that we won’t go much lower and will rebound into afternoon, so i can get some scratch for the call side. Likely a loss, but fortunately this was the cheapest i have ever paid for a condor in this strategy.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX Nov 30th 3525/3545-3685-3705 iron condors for 1.05, SPX at 3630, IV 11.4%, deltas -.06,+.06

Expiring: Nov 27th 3570/3590-3680/3700 condors, sold Wednesday for 1.20.

#SPX7dteLong Expiring at max 20.00 credit: Nov 27th 3570/3590 call spreads. Condors bought for 16.00 on Monday.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 27th 3570/3590-3680/3700 iron condors for 1.20, SPX at 3633, IV 9.6%, deltas -.10, +.05. Leaning bullish for two reasons: I think we’ll go a bit higher into the close, and the half-day after thanksgiving is typically quiet.

Expiring: Nov 25th 3545/3565-3685/3705 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05

#SPX7dteLong Expecting a profitable expiration of Nov 25th 3615/3635, bought last Wednesday for 9.50. If I don’t get the max 20.00, it will still be a good trade.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Dec 2nd 3600/3620-3630/3650 iron condors for 16.00, with SPX at 3627.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 25th 3545/3565-3685/3705 iron condors for 1.05, SPX 3632, IV 14.2%, deltas -.06,+.07

SPX-7dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close partial of the $SPX Nov 25th 3615/3635 call spreads for 7.00… I’ll say these are the ones I added for 3.75 on Thursday. But I was too early as Upside Warning finally showing its strength with the vertical slope today… spreads are now at 11.45 and rising. Must decide whether to close today or wait for possible max credit tomorrow.

Also, bought to open $SPX Nov 30th 3605/3625-3635/3655 for 15.65, with SPX at 3630.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Nov 27th 3540/3560-3570/3590 iron condors for 16.00, with SPX at 3568.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 3470/3490-3630/3650 iron condors for 1.20, SPX at 2566, IV 12.09%, deltas -.07,+.06

Expiring: Nov 20th 3485/3505-3640/3660 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15

#SPX7dteLong Expiring at max credit of 20.00: Nov 20th 3620/3600 put spreads. Condors bought Monday for 16.35.

#VIXIndicator The Upside Warning is not producing much yet, but the VIX action is so anemic that I don’t think we should be doubting it yet.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Nov 23rd 3615/3595 put spreads for 15.00. Leaving call side to close later today or Monday. Condors bought for 16.35 on Tuesday.

There’s a good chance this will end up in trouble if market rises on Monday, so I’m getting out now for what will likely be break-even, if i can close call side on a spike higher this afternoon.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 20th 3485/3505-3640/3660 iron condors for 1.15, SPX at 3578, IV 17.34%, deltas -.07,+.05.

Digging In

#SPX7dteLong Added more to my $SPX Nov 25th 3615/3635 call spreads for 3.75. Bought the first batch much too early yesterday for 9.50. Sticking with the Upside Warning, although it faces quite an adversary in this Covid surge.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Nov 18th 3545/3565 call spreads for 19.75. Condors bought for 17.75 on Tuesday the 10th. The drop made me nervous enough to sacrifice $25 to avoid an ITM expiration.

#SPX1dte Expiring: 3520/3540-3660/3680 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Nov 25th 3615/3635 call spreads for 9.50, with SPX at 3610. Taking only call side for expiry one week from today, based on Upside Warning and usual lazy bullishness around a holiday week.

NVDA earnings analysis

#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 19, 2020 AC +0.02%
May 21, 2020 AC +2.86%
Feb. 13, 2020 AC +7.02%
Nov. 14, 2019 AC -2.66%
Aug. 15, 2019 AC +7.25% Biggest UP
May 16, 2019 AC -2.28%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%

Avg (+ or -) 5.14%
Bias 0.01%, no bias on earnings.

With stock at 537.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 501.81 to 572.19 (+/- 6.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 509.41 to 564.59
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.8%): 436.31 to 637.69
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 575.93

Open to requests for other symbols.

Upside Warning in effect

Look out above… The $VIX low closes have fired an Upside Warning on the #VIXIndicator. Expect continued higher levels on $SPX in the coming days or weeks.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 18th 3520/3540-3660/3680 iron condors for 1.30, SPX 3609, IV 15.75%, deltas -.07,+.06

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Nov 23rd 3595/3615-3625/3645 iron condors for 16.35, with SPX at 3620.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Nov 20th 3600/3620-3630/3650 iron condors for 16.35, with SPX at 3627.

Expected for expiry today: Nov 16th 3580/3600 call spreads for max credit of 20.00, plus 1.00 I got for put side this morning. Condors bought for 16.68 last Wednesday.

#SPX1dte: Expected to expire worthless: Nov 16th 3475/3495-3655/3675 condors, sold Friday for 1.15.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Nov 16th 3570/3550 put spreads for 1.00. Leaving the 3580/3600 call spread to expire for full 20.00 credit. This takes away my protection from am intraday drop, but market looking stable and Moderna news should keep us positive today. Condors bought for 16.68 last Wednesday.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 16th 3475/3495-3655/3675 iron condors for 1.15, SPX close at 3585, IV 13.7%, deltas -.06,+.06. Sold right AFTER the closing bell.

Econ Calendar for week of 11/16/20

Screen Shot 2020-11-13 at 10.48.06 AM
Screen Shot 2020-11-13 at 10.48.06 AM

Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to Close $SPX Nov 13th 3600/3580 put spreads for 18.30. Condors bought Monday for 17.25.

This leaves the call side available and eliminates upside risk. I will look for a reversal to take profits, but if I dont get one the trade is already profitable.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong When $SPX was at 3573, bought to open Nov 16th 3550/3570-3580/3600 iron condors for 16.679 (avg price). This is only 5-dte, because yesterday I mistakenly sold the Nov 18th trade early.

Expected to expire today:
$SPX Nov 11th 3520/3540 call spreads at max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Thursday for 17.70.

#SPX1dte Expected to expired worthless: 3425/3445-3620/3640 condors, sold yesterday for 1.50.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 11th 3425/3445-3620/3640 iron condors for 1.50, SPX at 3544, IV 22.3%, deltas: -.06,+.07

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Nov 18th 3515/3535-3545/3565 iron condors for 17.75, with SPX at 3540. I picked the wrong date, was supposed to be Nov 16th. So this one is 8-dte. I may add a Nov 16th later today or tomorrow.

SPX 7dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX Nov 13th 3580/3600-3610/3630 iron condors for 17.25, with SPX at 3603.

Expiring with max profit of 20.00: Nov 9th 3430/3450 call spreads. Condors bought last Wednesday for 18.20.

Downside Warning canceled

….at the open with SPX hitting new all-time highs. #VIXIndicator

SPX 1-dte

Wow. Perfect day for a #RiskReversal. Definitely should have known…. but Friday being flat made me think the upward move would be limited. Nothing to do but take the loss, with slim hope for some intraday reversal.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 9th 3370/3390-3580/3600 iron condors for 1.40, SPX 3500, IV 17.4%, deltas -.06,+.06

Expiring: Nov 6th 3400/3420-3600/3620 condors, sold yesterday for 1.25

#SPX7dteLong Expiring with max credit of 20.00: Nov 6th 3375/3395 call spreads. Condors bought Tuesday for 18.35.

Econ Calendar for week of 11/9/20

#FOMC Jerome Powell speaks Thursday morning.

Screen Shot 2020-11-06 at 10.27.22 AM
Screen Shot 2020-11-06 at 10.27.22 AM

October Jobs Report

#Jobs — higher than expected

“October’s growth brings the total payroll gains since May to around 12 million, though that still leaves unfilled about 10 million positions lost in March and April.” -CNBC

Gain of +638,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected 530K gain
Unemployment at 6.9%, down by 1.0%, vs. expected 7.7%
U6 unemployment at 12.1%, down by 0.7%
Labor force participation 61.7%, up by 0.3

Sept jobs revised up by +11K to +672K
August jobs revised up by +4K to +1.493M

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 6th 3400/3420-3600/3620 iron condors for 1.25, SPX at 3518, IV 23.28%, deltas -.07,+.05.

Slightly bullish from a delta perspective, I’m throwing caution to the wind with employment announcement and ongoing election counts.

SPX 7dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Nov 11th 3490/3510-3520/3540 iron condors for 17.70, with SPX at 3515.

SPXpire

#SPX7dteLong Expiring at max credit of 20:00: $SPX Nov 4th 3335/3355 call spreads. Condors bought for 18.45 last Thursday.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong In pre-market, bought to open $SPX Nov 9th 3400/3420-3430/3450 iron condors for 18.20, with /ES at 3405, which roughly is equivalent to SPX 3414.

SPX 7-dte (-ish)

#SPX7dteLong This is only 3-dte, the shortest period for which I have bought one of these, but volatility has been strong and premium too high, so I’m going with a shorter time frame since market is pretty certain to move this week.

Bought to Open $SPX Nov 6th 3345/3365-3375/3395 iron condors for 18.35, with SPX at 3370.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Nov 2nd 3045/3065-3360/3380 condors, sold Friday for 1.10.

#SPX7dteLong Expiring at max credit of 20.00: Nov 2nd 3395/3375 put spreads. Condors bought for 17.50 last Tuesday.

I have an order in to buy a Nov 6th condor for 18.35. Volatility and premium are high so I won’t get filled unless things calm down into the close.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 2nd 3045/3065-3360/3380 iron condors for 1.10, SPX 3254, IV 26.9%, deltas -.06,+.05. Volatility is finally giving me a proper distance on the put side.

#SPX7dteLong Expiring at max credit of 20.00: Oct 30th 3390/3370 put spreads. Condors bought for 17.65 on Monday.

Econ Calendar for week of 11/2/20

#Jobs report is Friday at 8:30am ET

Screen Shot 2020-10-30 at 10.36.00 AM
Screen Shot 2020-10-30 at 10.36.00 AM

Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte Wow, three expirations in a row, Mon-Wed-Fri, stopped out! Pretty sure that’s the first time that has happened. Monday I held my breath and came out scot free… Wed took a 5.00 loss, today managed only a 1.30 loss. At least the #SPX7dteLong strategy is thriving in this volatility.

Bought to close $SPX Oct 30th 3215/3195 put spreads for 2.60. Sold for 1.30 yesterday.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Nov 4th 3300/3320-3335/3355 iron condors for 18.45. This is 15-wide, versus my usual 10-wide. I did it to get better premium, but it only got me about .15.

#spx1dte

FB earnings analysis

#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 30, 2020 AC +8.17%
April 29, 2020 AC +5.41%
Jan. 29, 2020 AC -6.13%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +1.80%
July 24, 2019 AC -1.93%
April 24, 2019 AC +5.84%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +10.81% Biggest UP
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%

Avg (+ or -) 6.44%
Bias 1.60%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 282.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 264.08 to 299.92 (+/- 6.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 263.84 to 300.16
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 335.47 to 228.53
Based on UP max only (+10.8%): 312.48

Open to requests for other symbols.

AMZN earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 30, 2020 AC +3.69%
April 30, 2020 AC -7.59% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 30, 2020 AC +7.37%
Oct. 24, 2019 AC -1.09%
July 25, 2019 AC -1.55%
April 25, 2019 AC +2.54%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81%
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 4.77%
Bias 0.86%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 3210.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 3045.70 to 3374.30 (+/- 5.1%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 3056.96 to 363.04
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 2785.96 to 3634.04
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 2959.30

Open to requests for other symbols.

AAPL earnings analysis

#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 30, 2020 AC +10.46% Biggest UP
April 30, 2020 AC -1.60%
Jan. 28, 2020 AC +2.09%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +2.26%
July 30, 2019 AC +2.04%
April 30, 2019 AC +4.90%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +6.83%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -6.63% Biggest DOWN
July 31, 2018 AC +5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC +4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.61%

Avg (+ or -) 4.50%
Bias 2.41%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 114.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 104.44 TO 123.56 (+/- 8.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 108.87 TO 119.13
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.5%): 102.08 TO 125.92
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 106.44

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Oct 28th 3305/3285 put spreads for 6.55. Sold yesterday for 1.30.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Nov 2nd 3375/3395-3405/3425 iron condors for 17.50, with SPX at 3391.

#SPX1dte trade to come, I will comment below this post.

Hung in there

#SPX1dte Expired: 3370/3390-3530/3550 condors, sold Friday for 1.30. Don’t try that at home.

SPX trades

#SPX7dte Bought to Open $SPX Oct 30th 3370/3390-3400/3420 iron condors for 17.60, with SPX at 3394.
Today’s put spread looks good to expire at max profit.

My one-day condor is in trouble. Looking for a bounce to exit the 3390/3370 short put spread. #SPX1dte

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 26th 3370/3390-3530/3550 iron condors for 1.30, SPX (close) at 3465, deltas -.07,+.06, IV 12.5%

Expired: Oct 23rd 3355/3375-3520/3540 condors, sold yesterday for 1.45.

#SPX7dte Unfortunate end to the day, put side expired worthless after selling call spread this morning for 5.60. Missed my chance to sell at lower levels midday…. it swung the wrong way for me after several good swings in the last couple weeks. Loss of 11.45.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Opened the day in the Dead Zone on my $SPX Oct 23rd 3440/3460-3470/3490 condor, so need to attempt some fancy maneuvering. Condor bought for 17.05 on Monday.

Sold to close the call side for 5.70. So now I am very bearish going into the close. Bearish! Grrrrr.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 23rd 3360/3380-3525/3545 iron condors for 1.45, SPX 3456, deltas -.07, +.06.

SPX 7dte

#SPX7dte Bought to Open $SPX 3420/3440-3450/3470 condors for 17.20, with SPX at 3445.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to Close $SPX 3470/3450 put spreads for 19.30. Call side sold for 3.70 this morning, so total credit of 23.00 against purchase of condor last Thursday for 17.05. Nice expiration day!

TSLA earnings analysis

#Earnings $TSLA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 22, 2020 AC -4.97%
April 29, 2020 AC -2.32%
Jan. 29, 2020 AC +10.29%
Oct. 23, 2019 AC +17.66% Biggest UP
July 24, 2019 AC -13.61% Biggest DOWN
April 24, 2019 AC -4.26%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -0.56%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18%
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%

Avg (+ or -) 8.33%
Bias 0.55%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 430.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 394.07 to 465.93 (+/- 8.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 394.19 to 465.81
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.7%): 354.06 to 505.94
Based on DOWN max only (-13.6%): 371.48

Open to requests for other symbols.

TSCO earnings analysis

#Earnings $TSCO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 23, 2020 BO +0.03%
April 23, 2020 BO -0.36%
Jan. 30, 2020 BO -1.25%
Oct. 24, 2019 BO +3.02%
July 25, 2019 BO -0.90%
April 25, 2019 BO +0.96%
Jan. 31, 2019 BO -4.70%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +5.80%
July 26, 2018 BO +2.81%
April 26, 2018 BO +7.18% Biggest UP
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -6.30% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 25, 2017 AC -0.98%

Avg (+ or -) 2.86%
Bias 0.44%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 150.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 142.77 to 157.23 (+/- 4.8%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 145.71 to 154.29
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.2%): 139.23 to 160.77
Based on DOWN max only (-6.3%): 140.55

Open to requests for other symbols.

#shortputs

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 21st 3480/3500 call spreads for 3.70. Need to now bank on the 3470/3450 put side for bulk of profit today. Condors bought for 17.05 last Thursday.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Five minutes after closing bell: Sold to Open $SPX Oct 21st 3340/3360-3510/3530 iron condors for 1.60, with SPX close at 3443, IV 21%, delats: -.07,+.07

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX Oct 26th 3450/3470-3480/3500 iron condors for 17.20, with SPX at 3463. Placed order when we were at 3474, but filled on the drop.

NFLX earnings analysis

#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 16, 2020 AC -6.52%
April 21, 2020 AC -2.86%
Jan. 21, 2020 AC -3.58%
Oct. 16, 2019 AC +2.46%
July 17, 2019 AC -10.27% Biggest DOWN
April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%

Avg (+ or -) 5.19%
Bias -0.70%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 530.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 484.26 to 575.74 (+/- 8.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 502.52 to 557.48
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.3%): 475.57 to 584.43
Based on UP max only (+10.0%): 582.84

NOTE: 3-day data: Max UP +18.5%, Max DOWN -13.1%. Avg Move +/- 6.5%, Bias: -1.24%

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX Oct 19th 3395/3415-3555/3575 condors, sold Friday for 1.40. Been watching to close it for the last hour but ended up hanging on for the win.

SPX 7dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Oct 23rd 3440/3460-3470/3490 iron condors for 17.05, with SPX at 3467.

Sold to close Oct 19th 3520/3500 put spreads for 19.70. Condors bought last Wednesday for 16.25. Since we did go ITM briefly this morning I’m exiting for safety in case of a stimulus announcement or something.

SPX trades

#SPX7dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 16th 3530/3510 put spreads for 18.50. Condors bought for 16.20 on Monday. Too much risk of a surge higher into the close so taking more than half of the max profit now.

I plumb forgot to sell a #SPX1dte condor yesterday, but I will today for Monday and will post it in a comment under this.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Oct 21st 3450/3470-3480/3500 iron condors for 17.05, with SPX at 3473.

SPX 7dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Oct 19th 3500/3520-3530/3550 iron condors for 16.25, with SPX at 3523.

Forgot to put this on yesterday.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open right before closing bell: $SPX Oct 14th 3430/3450-3570/3590 iron condors for 1.10, SPX at 3514, deltas -.07, +.05, IV 15.45%

#SPX7dteLong Filled yesterday, 14 minutes after closing bell (I hadn’t noticed then): Sold to close $SPX Oct 14th 3445/3465 call spreads for 19.00. Condors bought for 16.50 last Thursday. Holding put side as hedge for tomorrow.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Oct 12th 3530 calls for 4.40 (at 2 minutes before close). Condors sold Friday for 1.40. Fortunate to get a pullback at the close.

#SPX7dteLong Oct 12th 3420/3440 call spreads expire for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Tuesday for 16.85.

Just after closing bell: Bought to Open $SPX Oct 16th 3510/3530-3540/3560 iron condors for 16.20, SPX at 3534.

SPX rises…

…and so does VIX. The day opened at 3505 with expected move for today’s expiration at 18.00. So with my short strike at 3530, it seemed safe for me to head out on some errands this morning. Now, expected move was MORE than doubled.

Looking for any pullback to get out at a smaller loss than I’m seeing now. #SPX1dte

Econ calendar for week of 10/12/20

Screen Shot 2020-10-09 at 11.53.16 AM
Screen Shot 2020-10-09 at 11.53.16 AM

Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 12th 3380/3400-3530/3550 iron condors for 1.35, SPX 3474, IV 12%, deltas -.07,+.07

Expiring: Oct 9th 3355/3375-3495/3515 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00.

#SPX7dteLong Expiring: Oct 9th 3400/3420 calls spreads for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought for 17.05 on Monday.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 9th 3355/3375-3495/3515 iron condors for 1.00, SPX 3445, IV 15.13%, deltas -.06,+.06