#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 13th 2970/2980-3040/3050 condors for .45. Double-size position, 10-wide.
IV: 9.33%, SPX 3016
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Sept 18th 3045/3070 call spreads for 3.50. Condors sold yesterday for 2.65. This didn’t quite reach my stop level, but I’m switching to cautiously bullish today given the Warning’s cancellation. Which also explains this spread:
Sold $SPX Sept 16th 3000/2975 put spreads for 3.00. I’ll add another one tomorrow. I’m going to hold off on short call spreads for now, except for the 1-dte condors.
#VIXIndicator The Downside Warning will most likely be canceled at today’s close. Two more consecutive days closing below 14.50 would mean an Upside Warning hitting at Monday’s close.
#Earnings Sold to Open $AVGO Sept 13th 280/285-325/350 condor for 1.02. Strikes are right around the max moves in each direction. I’m trying this despite the trouble on the June earnings report when it had its biggest down move. I was able to roll that one and get out with profit on the following week.
$RH update: Still holding out for some profit on my Long Strangle. Need to reach 173.50 to fill my order… almost got there this morning.
#Earnings $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 13, 2019 AC -5.56% Biggest DOWN
March 14, 2019 AC +8.23%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC +0.58%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 0.00%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%
June 1, 2017 AC +8.49% Biggest UP
March 1, 2017 AC +0.99%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC +4.90%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -2.24%
Avg (+ or -) 4.14%
Bias 1.00%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 300.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 285.78 to 314.22
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 287.57 to 312.43
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.5%): 274.53 to 325.47
Based on DOWN max only (-5.6%): 283.32
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Sept 16th 3025/3050 call spreads for 3.60. Condors sold for 2.25 on Monday. My stop was hit at 3012, half the expected move to the 3025 strike.