SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX Jul 19th 2940/2960-3015/3035 condors for .85.

The short put is the same one I just closed earlier, on the longer term spread. Oh, well.

SPX trade close

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 19th 2960/2935 put spreads for .40. Sold for 5.50 on July 8th.
This sucker was up near 3.00 this morning. Got no reason to push my luck for one more day.

HON closed, for real

#Earnings Sold to Close $HON Jul19/Jul26 172.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.38. Bought yesterday for .67.

SKX strangle

#Earnings Bought to Open $SKX July 19th 34.5/35 #LongStrangles for 4.38.

From current price at 34.75, I need a 13.6% move. Avg move on earnings has been 16.5%.

NUGT flying

#ContangoETFs Keeps notching new highs. No strikes breached yet but it could get ugly before it gets better.

Sold $NUGT Jan 2020 55 calls for 3.20. Highest available strike.

SKX earnings analysis

#Earnings $SKX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 18, 2019 BO -10.43%
Feb. 7, 2019 AC +15.19%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +13.78%
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +41.44% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC +0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%

Avg (+ or -) 16.55%
Bias -0.22%, no significant directional bias on earnings, just a big-move bias.

With stock at 34.35 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 30.07 to 38.63
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 28.67 to 40.03
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (41.4%): 20.12 to 48.58
Based on DOWN Max only (-27.0%): 25.06

Open to requests for other symbols.

HON mostly closed – NOT

#Earnings Sold to close $HON Jul19/Jul26 172.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.65. Bought yesterday for .67.

Filled on most of my order. Still a few out there but should fill when price meanders back toward my strike.