SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dte Sold to close $SPX July 1st 3060/3040 put spreads for .80. Looking for 3070/3090 call side to expire at 20.00. Condors bought for 18.00 last Wednesday.

Sold to close $SPX July 2nd 3015/3035 call spreads for 18.50. Looking to get a dollar or more for put side. Condors bought for 18.30 last Friday.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX June 30th 3105 calls for .50. Talk about blind side… exited this AFTER its run up to 3111. Condors sold yesterday for 1.15

Sold to open $SPX July 1st 3005/3025-3170/3190 condors for 1.20. IV 20.7%, SPX 3105, deltas -.06, +.06.

FDX earnings analysis

#Earnings $FDX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 17, 2020 AC +4.97% Biggest UP
Dec. 17, 2019 AC -10.02%
Sept. 17, 2019 AC -12.91% Biggest DOWN
June 25, 2019 AC +2.52%
March 19, 2019 AC -3.49%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -12.16%
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -5.53%
June 19, 2018 AC -2.69%
March 20, 2018 AC -1.17%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +3.51%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC +2.08%
June 20, 2017 AC +1.60%

Avg (+ or -) 5.22%
Bias -2.77%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 136.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 126.33 to 145.67 (+/- 7.1%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 128.90 to 143.10
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 118.44 to 153.56
Based on UP max only (+5.0%): 142.76

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 6th 3015/3035-3045/3065 condors for 18.05, with SPX at 3043
Expiring: June 29th 3100/3080 put spreads for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 18.05.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 30th 2935/2955-3105/3125 condors for 1.15, IV 22.1%, SPX 3042, deltas: -.06, +.06
Expiring: June 29th 2870/2890-3100/3120 condors, sold Friday for 1.20

MU earnings analysis

#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 25, 2020 AC +5.38%
Dec. 18, 2019 AC +2.80%
Sept. 26, 2019 AC -11.09% Biggest DOWN
June 25, 2019 AC +13.34% Biggest UP
March 20, 2019 AC +9.61%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -7.91%
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC +0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC +8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%

Avg (+ or -) 6.62%
Bias 0.79%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 48.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 45.14 to 51.86 (+/- 5.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 45.29 to 51.71
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 42.03 to 54.97
Based on DOWN max only (-11.1%): 43.12

NOTE: 5-day MAX moves are -12.96% and +18.08%

Open to requests for other symbols.

Econ Calendar for week of 6/29/20

#FOMC Jerome Powell speaks Tuesday 12:30pm ET
#Jobs Report is THURSDAY at 8:30am ET

Screen Shot 2020-06-29 at 7.07.28 AM
Screen Shot 2020-06-29 at 7.07.28 AM

Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 29th 2870/2890-3100/3120 condors for 1.20, IV 21.4%, SPX 3013, deltas: -.05, +.05.

Expiring: June 26th 2965/2985-3150/3170 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 2nd 2985/3005-3015/3035 condor for 18.35, with SPX at 3010.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 26th 2965/2985-3150/3170 condors for 1.30, IV 25%, SPX 3078, deltas -.06, +.06.

NKE earnings analysis

#Earnings $NKE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 24, 2020 AC +9.23%
Dec. 19, 2019 AC -1.17%
Sept. 24, 2019 AC +4.16%
June 27, 2019 AC +0.34%
March 21, 2019 AC -6.61% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2018 AC +7.16%
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC +11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC +0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC +10.96%

Avg (+ or -) 4.71%
Bias 2.50%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 100.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 94.59 to 105.41 (+/- 5.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 95.29 to 104.71
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.1%): 88.88 to 111.12
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 93.39

Open to requests for other symbols.