Dub Cal updates

#Earnings Paid .02 to close the 110 put calendar on $LOW. It’s too low. Bought for .50 on Tuesday.

Sold to close half of the $CTRP May24/May31 38 #DoubleCalendar for .40. Bought yesterday for .26. Looking to close the rest when price drifts a bit higher, today or tomorrow.

Filled on more of the $INTU dub cal at 1.55. Still only partial fill, but I’m not going to go any higher.

I want to play $SPLK bullish but the market isn’t cooperating with my confidence.

INTU earnings trade & analysis

#Earnings Bought $INTU May 24/May31 245 #DoubleCalendar for 1.50. Only a partial fill, and then price seems to be running higher. This is not heavy mover normally. Positioned slightly bullish since everything has pulled back today, and it has a bullish bias on earnings..

#Earnings $INTU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 21, 2019 AC +6.76% Biggest UP
Nov. 19, 2018 AC -2.03%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +1.96%
May 22, 2018 AC +2.98%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -0.18%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC -3.79% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 22, 2017 AC -1.90%
May 23, 2017 AC +6.72%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +6.05%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +1.91%
Aug. 23, 2016 AC -3.50%
May 24, 2016 AC -2.13%

Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias 1.07%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 242.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 253.87 to 276.61
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 234.43 to 250.57
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 226.11 to 258.89
Based on maximum DOWN only (-3.8%): 233.31

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPLK earnings trade & analysis

#Earnings $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 28, 2019 AC -0.90%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC +0.41%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -10.10% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 AC +2.56%

Avg (+ or -) 7.48%
Bias 3.08%, strongly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 131.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 121.63 to 140.37
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 120.28 to 139.72
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 106.74 to 153.26
Based on max DOWN move only (-10.1%): 116.87

Open to requests for other symbols.

#hcgavis

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Closed on GTC order: $SPX May 31st 2920/2945 call spread for .30. Sold Tuesday for 3.00.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Closed $SPX May 22nd 2825/2805 put spreads for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.00. Flirting with a bit too much volatility lately to allow these to expire comfortably.

CTRP earnings trade & analysis

#Earnings Out of the three candidates this morning, this one had the best Dub-Cal return and lowest average post-earnings move (other two were $BBY and $NTAP). However, it did have its biggest moves in last two quarters.

Bought $CTRP May 24/May31 38 #DoubleCalendar for .25 and .27. Double size since cost is so low.

#Earnings $CTRP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 4, 2019 AC +19.77% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -19.01% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 5, 2018 AC +5.43%
May 22, 2018 AC +3.98%
March 14, 2018 AC -1.94%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.29%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -2.40%
May 10, 2017 AC -3.52%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +1.44%
Nov. 23, 2016 AC +9.80%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC +3.40%
June 15, 2016 AC +1.50%

Avg (+ or -) 6.21%
Bias 1.35%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 38.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 34.33 to 41.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 35.64 to 40.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.8%): 30.49 to 45.51

Open to requests for other symbols.

BBY earnings analysis

#Earnings $BBY reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 27, 2019 BO +14.11%
Nov. 20, 2018 BO +2.13%
Aug. 28, 2018 BO -5.00%
May 24, 2018 BO -6.64%
March 1, 2018 BO +3.94%
Nov. 16, 2017 BO -3.57%
Aug. 29, 2017 BO -11.92% Biggest DOWN
May 25, 2017 BO +21.47% Biggest UP
March 1, 2017 BO -4.50%
Nov. 17, 2016 BO +13.69%
Aug. 23, 2016 BO +19.60%
May 24, 2016 BO -7.42%

Avg (+ or -) 9.50%
Bias 2.99%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 69.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 64.17 to 74.83
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 62.90 to 76.10
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.5%): 54.58 to 84.42
Based on DOWN Max only (-11.9%): 61.22

Open to requests for other symbols.