TSLA earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $TSLA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 29, 2020 AC -2.32%
Jan. 29, 2020 AC +10.29%
Oct. 23, 2019 AC +17.66% Biggest UP
July 24, 2019 AC -13.61% Biggest DOWN
April 24, 2019 AC -4.26%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -0.56%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18%
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +6.50%

Avg (+ or -) 8.46%
Bias 1.51%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 1600.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1363.21 to 1836.79 (+/- 14.8%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1464.72 to 1735.28
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.7%): 1317.44 to 1882.56
Based on DOWN max only (-13.6%): 1382.24

Open to requests for other symbols.

CMG earnings analysis

#Earnings $CMG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 21, 2020 AC +12.14%
Feb. 4, 2020 AC -3.48%
Oct. 22, 2019 AC -5.15%
July 23, 2019 AC +5.18%
April 24, 2019 AC -4.46%
Feb. 6, 2019 AC +11.35%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +3.42%
July 26, 2018 AC +5.71%
April 25, 2018 AC +24.44% Biggest UP
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -10.55%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -14.58% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2017 AC -2.30%

Avg (+ or -) 8.56%
Bias 1.81%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 1170.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1091.56 to 1248.44 (+/- 6.7%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1069.81 to 1270.19
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.4%): 884.05 to 1455.95
Based on DOWN max only (-14.6%): 999.41

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 22nd 3165/3185-3310/3330 condors for 1.10, IV: 17.19%, SPX 3257, deltas: -.06, +.06

ISRG earnings analysis

#Earnings $ISRG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 16, 2020 AC +3.11%
Jan. 23, 2020 AC -4.19%
Oct. 17, 2019 AC +6.96%
July 18, 2019 AC -1.45%
April 18, 2019 AC -7.00% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 24, 2019 AC -3.93%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC -3.45%
July 19, 2018 AC -0.86%
April 17, 2018 AC +8.17% Biggest UP
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -2.12%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +3.39%
July 20, 2017 AC -4.55%

Avg (+ or -) 4.10%
Bias -0.49%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 665.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 627.36 to 702.64 (+/- 5.7%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 637.75 to 692.25
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 610.67 to 719.33
Based on DOWN max only (-7.0%): 618.45

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 27th 3225/3245-3255/3275 condors for 16.75, with SPX close at 3251.

Expired with max 20.00 credit: June 20th 3190/3210 call spreads. Condors bought for 17.40 last Monday.

#SPX1dte #RiskReversal expired worthless, keeping .35 credit from Friday.

Is it blasphemy to call THIS the best Rolling Stones tune?

Teaser clip for episode 10: InRocktrination.

Upside to come

The #VIXIndicator fired a bullish signal at the close. This indicates the likelihood of a further move higher in the coming days or weeks.

SPX 1-dte & NFLX

#SPX1dte #RiskReversal for Monday. Placed as one trade with SPX at 3229, IV 13.7%, total credit: .35. Aggressive positioning based on Upside Warning:
Sold $SPX July 20th 3185/3165 put spreads for 2.07, ∆ -.17
Bought $SPX July 20th 3270/3285 call spreads for 1.72, ∆ +.14

Expiring: July 17th 3115/3135-3270/3285 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15.

#Earnings Also expiring, $NFLX July 17th 460/465-590/595 condors, sold yesterday for 1.446

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 24th 3205/3225-3235/3255 condors for 16.95, with SPX at 3230.

Expiring today: July 17th 3180/3200 call spreads for max of 20.00. Condors bought last Friday for 17.25.

VXX longs

#VXXGame Bought to open $VXX Aug 21st 65 calls for .50. Added to a large number of 85’s I have for same expiry. I have not yet sold against these, but will look to do on next down turn. I have a smaller number of long $UVXY 90 calls expiring today, average purchase price .47.

Econ Calendar for week of 7/20/20

Screen Shot 2020-07-17 at 11.06.08 AM

Screen Shot 2020-07-16 at 6.24.58 AM

Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

Upside coming?

#VIXIndicator – Looks like we will get an Upside Warning at the close.

I have posted for the last two years about #DoubleHeaders, where we get a Downside Warning canceled, followed by another DW without an Upside in between. They have become more common and I have been getting a bigger database to analyze. I missed an Upside Warning on May 27th. The SPX closed at 3036 that day, then ran up to its recent high of 3233 on June 8th. After that, I tweaked the Indicator again so we can catch the rallies in the #DoubleHeader environment.

So if $VIX closes below 28.02 today, we can expect another run up. However I would say it is a less reliable Upside Warning with VIX still in the high 20’s.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 17th (PM) 3110/3130-3275/3295 condors for 1.15, IV 20.2%, SPX 3211, ∆ -.06,+.05

NFLX trade

#Earnings Sold to Open $NFLX July 17th 460/465-590/595 condors for 1.445. Filled quickly on an order for 1.40, so I clearly asked for too little. Short strikes at historical max moves.

NFLX earnings analysis

#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 21, 2020 AC -2.86%
Jan. 21, 2020 AC -3.58%
Oct. 16, 2019 AC +2.46%
July 17, 2019 AC -10.27% Biggest DOWN
April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 5.77%
Bias 0.97%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 520.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 467.05 to 572.95 (+/- 10.2%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 490.00 to 550.00
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 449.59 to 590.41
Based on DOWN max only (-10.3%): 466.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to Close $SPX July 15th 3170/3190 call spreads for 19.40. Bought condors for 17.40 last Wednesday. Not gonna get caught in another reversal today.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 15th 3255/3275 call spreads for 3.00. Condors sold for 1.00 yesterday, but stop was hit this morning.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 15th 3080/3100-3255/3275 condors for 1.00, IV 21.25%, SPX 3198 (close), deltas -.05, +.06. Filled three minutes after the closing bell.

GS earnings analysis

#Earnings $GS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 15, 2020 BO +0.16%
Jan. 15, 2020 BO -0.18%
Oct. 15, 2019 BO +0.31%
July 16, 2019 BO +1.86%
April 15, 2019 BO -3.81% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +9.54% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01%
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%

Avg (+ or -) 2.31%
Bias 0.17%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 211.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 201.02 to 221.98 (+/- 5.0%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 206.61 to 216.39
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 191.32 to 231.68
Based on DOWN max only (-3.8%): 203.44

Open to requests for other symbols.

Episode 11 – Second to Nun

So much to stream, including badass nuns, bad crass singers, and terrorists in first class. And, Kevin turns the tables on Jeff with the guessing game. More details and links at https://thepickcast.com

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 20th 3160/3180-3190/3210 condors for 17.40, with SPX at 3183.

My expiration for today looked like an easy winner and then we had the collapse. Now at mercy of the close.

Episode 10 – Inrocktrination

We try to convince a country-music-loving college student that rock’n’roll is here to stay. Plus new music from Anderson.Paak, Nicole Atkins, Amber Mark, Bob Dylan, and more. And, we revisit KISW’s Top 1000 Rock songs of all time, as compiled in 1987. Playlists and more details at https://thepickcast.com

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte I didn’t place a trade for Monday. I was actually trying to place another bullish #Risk Reversal but couldn’t get filled before time ran out.

Expiring: $SPX June 10th 3055/3075-3215/3235 condors, sold yesterday for 1.40.

#SPX7dteLong Expiring at full 20.00 credit: June 10th 3155/3175 calls spread. Condors bought for 17.00 on June 2nd. Closed today for 20.50, total credit.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 17th 3150/3170-3180/3200 condors for 17.25, with SPX at 3177.

Econ Calendar for week of 7/13/20

Screen Shot 2020-07-10 at 10.48.51 AM
Screen Shot 2020-07-10 at 10.48.51 AM

Link to Calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to Close $SPX June 10th 3145/3125 put spreads for .50. I have no choice now but to rely on the call side for profit, so dumping the put side. Need a close above 3175 for max profit.

PEP earnings analysis

#Earnings $PEP reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters, to indicate how PEP may move into next Friday’s expiration.

Tue 04/28/2020 BO -3.21%
Thu 02/13/2020 BO +0.62%
Thu 10/03/2019 BO +3.29%
Tue 07/09/2019 BO +0.54%
Wed 04/17/2019 BO +3.82%
Fri 02/15/2019 BO +2.97%
Tue 10/02/2018 BO -3.81% Biggest DOWN
Tue 07/10/2018 BO +4.57% Biggest UP
Thu 04/26/2018 BO -0.21%
Tue 02/13/2018 BO -0.78%
Wed 10/04/2017 BO +1.16%
Tue 07/11/2017 BO +0.57%

Avg (+ or -) 2.13%
Bias 0.79%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 32.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday 7/17 per TOS): 126.73 to 137.27 (+/- 4.0%)
Based on AVERAGE five-day move over last 12 quarters: 129.19 to 134.81
Based on MAXIMUM five-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.6%): 125.97 to 138.03
Based on DOWN max only (-3.8%): 126.97

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 10th 3055/3075-3215/3235 condors for 1.35, IV 20%, SPX 3152, ∆ -.07, +.06

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 15th 3140/3160-3170/3190 condors for 17.20, with SPX at 3167.
Wasn’t filled on trying to sell my put side on the lows…. I called the pullback but thought it would go a bit deeper.

#SPX1dte Expiring: July 8th 3045/3065-3205/3225 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.

#spx1-dte

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX June 8th 3130/3150 call spreads for 16.85. Condors bought last Wednesday for 17.10. I’m taking a small loss now on the possibility of a roll over and going negative. If we do that in the next hour or two I should be able to get some decent premium for selling the 3120/3100 put side.

WBA earnings analysis

#Earnings $WBA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 2, 2020 BO -6.29%
Jan. 8, 2020 BO -5.83%
Oct. 28, 2019 BO +0.68%
June 27, 2019 BO +4.08% Biggest UP
April 2, 2019 BO -12.80% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2018 BO -5.02%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO -1.94%
June 28, 2018 BO -9.90%
March 28, 2018 BO +2.47%
Jan. 4, 2018 BO -5.17%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +3.07%
June 29, 2017 BO +1.66%

Avg (+ or -) 4.91%
Bias -2.92% significant negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 42.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 39.70 to 45.30 (+/- 6.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 40.41 to 44.59
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.8%): 37.06 to 47.94
Based on UP max only (+4.1%): 44.23

Open to requests for other symbols.

BBBY earnings analysis

#Earnings $BBBY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 15, 2020 AC +18.01% Biggest UP
Jan. 8, 2020 AC -19.21%
Oct. 2, 2019 AC +2.69%
July 10, 2019 AC -3.03%
April 10, 2019 AC -8.75%
Jan. 9, 2019 AC +16.55%
Sept. 26, 2018 AC -20.99% Biggest DOWN
June 27, 2018 AC -3.81%
April 11, 2018 AC -19.95%
Dec. 20, 2017 AC -12.49%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -15.87%
June 22, 2017 AC -12.12%

Avg (+ or -) 12.79%
Bias -6.58%, strongly negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 10.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 8.26 to 11.74 (+/- 17.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 8.72 to 11.28
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.0%): 7.90 to 12.10
Based on UP max only (+18.0%): 11.80

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 8th 3045/3065-3205/3225 condors for 1.10, IV 19%, SPX 3047, deltas -.04, +.06

SPXpirations

#SPX7dteLong $SPX July 6th 3045/3065 call spread expired with full credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 18.05. I wasn’t able to place one for next Monday; will do it tomorrow.

#SPX1dte July 6th 3060/3040 put credit and 3215/3235 call debit #RiskReversal expired with no additional profit… keeping the .30 credit that I placed it for on Friday.

SPX trades

#SPX7dte Bought to Open $SPX July 10th 3125/3145-3155/3175 condors for 17.00, with SPX at 3148.

#SPX1dte #RiskReversal – going for a bullish trade given the low $VIX
Sold $SPX June 6th 3060/3040 put spreads for .80
Bought $SPX June 6th 3215/3235 call spreads for .50
Placed as one trade for .30 credit. IV 14%, SPX 3141, put short delta -.09, call long delta +.04

Expiring: June 2nd 3190/3210 call spreads, sold this morning for 1.20.

SPX 0-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 2nd 3190/3210 condors for 1.20, with SPX at 3160. Same day trade meant to expire worthless in a few hours.

June Jobs Report

#Jobs — an increase beats expectations again.

Gain of +4,800,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected 2.9M gain
Unemployment at 11.1%, down by 2.2%, vs. expected 12.4%
U6 unemployment at 18.0%, down by 3.2%
Labor force participation 61.5%, up by 0.7%
Average hourly earnings down 1.2% from May, up 5% from last June.
May jobs revised upward by +190K

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 8th 3100/3120-3130/3150 condors for 17.10, with SPX at 3124.

Expiring: July 1st 3070/3090 call spreads for 20.00. Sold put side this morning for .80.
July 2nd call side sold this morning for 18.50. Not filled on attempts to sell put side; will see if high IV around the jobs report in the morning can get me some premium.

#jobs, #spx1dte

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dte Sold to close $SPX July 1st 3060/3040 put spreads for .80. Looking for 3070/3090 call side to expire at 20.00. Condors bought for 18.00 last Wednesday.

Sold to close $SPX July 2nd 3015/3035 call spreads for 18.50. Looking to get a dollar or more for put side. Condors bought for 18.30 last Friday.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX June 30th 3105 calls for .50. Talk about blind side… exited this AFTER its run up to 3111. Condors sold yesterday for 1.15

Sold to open $SPX July 1st 3005/3025-3170/3190 condors for 1.20. IV 20.7%, SPX 3105, deltas -.06, +.06.

FDX earnings analysis

#Earnings $FDX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 17, 2020 AC +4.97% Biggest UP
Dec. 17, 2019 AC -10.02%
Sept. 17, 2019 AC -12.91% Biggest DOWN
June 25, 2019 AC +2.52%
March 19, 2019 AC -3.49%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -12.16%
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -5.53%
June 19, 2018 AC -2.69%
March 20, 2018 AC -1.17%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +3.51%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC +2.08%
June 20, 2017 AC +1.60%

Avg (+ or -) 5.22%
Bias -2.77%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 136.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 126.33 to 145.67 (+/- 7.1%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 128.90 to 143.10
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 118.44 to 153.56
Based on UP max only (+5.0%): 142.76

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 6th 3015/3035-3045/3065 condors for 18.05, with SPX at 3043
Expiring: June 29th 3100/3080 put spreads for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 18.05.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 30th 2935/2955-3105/3125 condors for 1.15, IV 22.1%, SPX 3042, deltas: -.06, +.06
Expiring: June 29th 2870/2890-3100/3120 condors, sold Friday for 1.20

MU earnings analysis

#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 25, 2020 AC +5.38%
Dec. 18, 2019 AC +2.80%
Sept. 26, 2019 AC -11.09% Biggest DOWN
June 25, 2019 AC +13.34% Biggest UP
March 20, 2019 AC +9.61%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -7.91%
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC +0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC +8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%

Avg (+ or -) 6.62%
Bias 0.79%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 48.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 45.14 to 51.86 (+/- 5.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 45.29 to 51.71
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 42.03 to 54.97
Based on DOWN max only (-11.1%): 43.12

NOTE: 5-day MAX moves are -12.96% and +18.08%

Open to requests for other symbols.

Econ Calendar for week of 6/29/20

#FOMC Jerome Powell speaks Tuesday 12:30pm ET
#Jobs Report is THURSDAY at 8:30am ET

Screen Shot 2020-06-29 at 7.07.28 AM
Screen Shot 2020-06-29 at 7.07.28 AM

Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 29th 2870/2890-3100/3120 condors for 1.20, IV 21.4%, SPX 3013, deltas: -.05, +.05.

Expiring: June 26th 2965/2985-3150/3170 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 2nd 2985/3005-3015/3035 condor for 18.35, with SPX at 3010.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 26th 2965/2985-3150/3170 condors for 1.30, IV 25%, SPX 3078, deltas -.06, +.06.

NKE earnings analysis

#Earnings $NKE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 24, 2020 AC +9.23%
Dec. 19, 2019 AC -1.17%
Sept. 24, 2019 AC +4.16%
June 27, 2019 AC +0.34%
March 21, 2019 AC -6.61% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2018 AC +7.16%
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC +11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC +0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC +10.96%

Avg (+ or -) 4.71%
Bias 2.50%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 100.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 94.59 to 105.41 (+/- 5.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 95.29 to 104.71
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.1%): 88.88 to 111.12
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 93.39

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold $SPX June 26th 3110/3090 put spreads for 13.70. Using the dip to sell put side, looking for a bounce tomorrow and Friday to sell the call side. Condors bought for 18.15 on Friday.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX June 24th 3055/3035 put spreads for 2.00. Condors sold for 1.40 yesterday. Expected-move stop was hit at 3084.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dtelong Sold to close $SPX June 24th 3110/3090 put spreads for 6.90. Betting on a recovery by the close so I can sell the call 3120/3140 call spread at least partially ITM. Condors bought for 18.40 last Wednesday.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 24th 3035/3055-3205/3225 condors for 1.40, IV 22.2%, SPX 3139, deltas -.06, +.06.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 29th 3080/3100-3110/3130 Condors for 18.05, with SPX at 3108.
Expiring: June 22nd 3060/3080 call spreads for maximum 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 18.35.

#SPX1dte Expiring: June 22nd 2960/2980-3195/3215 condors, sold Friday for 1.30

SPX trades from Friday

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 22nd 2960/2980-3195/3215 condors for 1.30
Expired: June 19th 2985/3005-3185/3205 condors, sold Thursday for 1.15

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX June 22nd put side for .20. Call side previously closed for 18.00. Condors bought for 18.40, so .20 loss.

Bought to Open $SPX June 26th 3090/3110-3120/3140 condors for 18.15.

Econ Calendar for week of 6/22/20

Screen Shot 2020-06-22 at 6.25.15 AM
Screen Shot 2020-06-22 at 6.25.15 AM

Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

Episode 9 – 100% Streaming

Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods, plus many streaming picks. And Bob Fuller guests in a tribute to Fred Willard. Catch an extended video interview with Bob, plus more details and links at https://thepickcast.com

Episode 8 – 100% Music

New music, old music, and Kevin guesses which music. An episode with music only, paired with episode 9 which is all streaming picks. // Find more details, links, and playlists at https://thepickcast.com

The debate rages on…. Bull or Bear?

The Bull Market Is Over. It’s Time To Sell The Rips, Not Buy The Dips

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4354018-bull-market-is-over-time-to-sell-rips-not-buy-dips?utm_source=push&utm_medium=onesignal&utm_campaign=20-06-18-article-2

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 2985/3005-3185/3205 condors for 1.15, IV 26%, SPX 3106, deltas -.06, +.06

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX June 19th 3030/3050 call spreads for 18.00. Condors bought last Friday for 18.40. I’m waiting to sell put spread on any move down. I wanted to exit to avoid gap down risk tomorrow morning.

Also, added the remaining call spreads that I wasn’t filled on yesterday for June 24th 3090/3110-3120/3140 for 1.05 less than yesterday.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 24th 3090/3110-3120/3140 condors for 18.55. I tried legging in but it didn’t help the pretty high premium on this, due volatility the last hour. Only partially filled on the call side so I will try to add the last contracts tomorrow.

#SPX1dte Expired: June 17th 2975/2995-3225/3245 condors, sold yesterday for 1.45.

SPX 1 dte

#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX June 17th 2975/2995-3225/3245 condors for 1.45, IV 32.9%, SPX 3114, deltas -.06, +.05

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Legged out of the $SPX June 17th 3180/3200-3210/3230 condor on the swings this morning.
BTO condors for 17.35 last Wednesday.
STC call spreads at 7:01 PDT for 2.60
STC put spreads at 7:57 PDT for 17.50

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX June 22nd 3030/3040-3050/3060 condors for 18.30, with SPX at 3054.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 19th 3000/3020-3030/3050 condors for 18.40, with SPX at 3017.

#spx1dte

Econ Calendar for week of 6/15/20

#FOMC Jerome Powell opens his yapper again on Wednesday

Screen Shot 2020-06-11 at 12.57.51 PM
Screen Shot 2020-06-11 at 12.57.51 PM

Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

SPX (no) trades

#SPX7dteLong Missed my chance for small profit yesterday and instead sold to close $SPX June 12th 3200/3220 call spreads this morning for 1.20. Bought for 9.30 last Friday. As I commented then, throwing in the towel on the relentless bull run probably would mark the top.

I am skipping the #SPX1dte for tomorrow. Premium is not high enough for the risk.

LULU earnings analysis

#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 26, 2020 AC -5.95%
Dec. 11, 2019 AC -3.73%
Sept. 5, 2019 AC +7.81%
June 12, 2019 AC +2.12%
March 27, 2019 AC +14.12%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC +11.54%

Avg (+ or -) 9.24%
Bias 5.40%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 311.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 288.00 to 334.00 (+/- 7.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 282.27 to 339.73
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.3%): 260.28 to 361.72
Based on DOWN max only (-13.4%): 269.45

Open to requests for other symbols.

ADBE earnings analysis

#Earnings $ADBE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 12, 2020 AC +17.71% Biggest UP
Dec. 12, 2019 AC +3.91%
Sept. 17, 2019 AC -1.74%
June 18, 2019 AC +5.21%
March 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -7.28% Buggest DOWN
Sept. 13, 2018 AC +2.29%
June 14, 2018 AC -2.43%
March 15, 2018 AC +3.05%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +1.43%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -4.24%
June 20, 2017 AC +2.36%

Avg (+ or -) 4.63%
Bias 1.36%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 400.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 382.20 to 417.80 (+/- 4.5%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 381.47 to 418.53
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.7%): 329.16 to 470.84
Based on DOWN max only (-7.3%): 370.88

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 17th 3180/3200-3210/3230 condors for 17.35, with SPX at 3207.

Expiring: June 10th 3100/3120-3130/3150 condors, max profit of 20.00 on call side. Bought for 17.10 last Wednesday.

#SPX1dte Expiring: June 10th 3100/3120-3285/3305 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 10th 3100/3120-3285/3305 condors for 1.10, IV: 22.25%, SPX 3209, deltas -.06, +.05.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 15th 3195/3215-3225/3245 condors for 17.00, with SPX at 3219.

Episode 7 – Fifty Albums (plus the Moon)

Our 50 States Project — Completing Sufjan Stevens’ broken promise to release an album for each state… our guest has done it. All in three months. Plus: Snowpiercer, big screen to small screen. And more. // Find more details, links, and playlists at https://thepickcast.com

SPX 7dte

#SPX7dteLong. Bought to Open $SPX June 12th 3200/3220 call spreads for 9.25, with SPX at 3192. Only going with call side this time. Which probably means I just called the market top!

SPX 1dte

#SPX1dte Playing for more upside on Monday with #RiskReversal. Placed as one trade:
Sold to Open $SPX June 8th 3130/3110 put spreads for .81
Bought to Open $SPX June 8th 3260/3280 call spreads for .51.
Net credit .30