State of the market

T2108: 11.30 (low of the day 9.96)
Fear and Greed Index: 21 (Extreme Fear)
VIX futures in backwardation (www.vixcentral.com)

Closed TTD

Finally took this one off for just about a scratch/very small loss after it ran away from me after earnings. Originally put the trade on 8/9 and did several rolls and adjustments bringing in net 2.85 in premium. Bought the final position (Oct 21 55/75 strangle) back for 3.15 for an overall .30 loss.

For T2108 watchers

It got as low as 17.66 this morning. Not in the single digits like in June but notable. We’ll see if there’s anything behind today’s move. It closed at 26.07.

NFLX put spread

I’m liking this strong move in a weak tape with the stock more than recovering from Tuesday’s market bloodbath.
Sold to open $NFLX Oct 21 200/190 bull put spread @ 1.80. Short puts 19 delta.

Closed SPY iron fly

BTC Sep 9 406/407/408 iron butterfly @ .66. Sold for .89 earlier.

SPY iron fly

A little bit of speculation, low risk high reward. Looking for the Friday afternoon rally that could make another appearance today. STO Sep 9 406/407/408 iron butterfly @ .89 credit. Max loss .11.

SMH put spread

Going long semiconductors here. Sold to open Oct 21 195/185 bull put spread @ 2.05, short puts 26 delta.

Rolling TTD out

Rolling this position out to what I’m hoping will be the last iteration before I take it off for an overall profit: Rolled $TTD Sep 16 60 straddle out to Oct 21 55/75 strangle for 1.10 debit.

Accumulated credits so far are 2.87.

If the strangle gets to around 50% of what I sold it for (Oct 55/75 sold for 4.68), I’ll close it for an overall profit on an earnings trade gone rogue. But first things first, TTD needs to behave for a couple of weeks.

Rolling TTD

Rolled $TTD Sep 16 67 calls down to 60. Position is now a 60 straddle with 2.76 net credit from rolls and adjustments.

Adjusting TTD

With the stock at 62.92 resetting strikes, rolling Sep 16 $TTD 75/65 inverted strangle to Sep 16 60/67 strangle @ 10.48 debit.

Previous trades:
Original (8/9): STO 45/65 strangle as an earnings trade @ 4.11
8/10: Rolled 45 puts up to 65 @ 3.20 credit
8/11: Rolled 65 puts up to 75 @ 3.70 credit
8/16: Added 80/85 bear call spread @ 1.21 credit

Adding a TTD position

Sold $TTD Sep 20 80/85 bear call spread @ 1.21 with the stock around 73.40. Looks like it’s exhausted its post-earnings move up so I’m bringing premium against my inverted strangle (75/65).

TTD roll up

With the huge post-earnings move (stock up over 33%), rolled Sep 16 45 puts up to 65 puts @ 3.20 credit. Position is now a short 65 straddle, with 7.31 total credit taken in.

TTD earnings strangle

Borrowing an idea from TastyTrade. Sold $TTD Sep 16 45/65 strangle @ 4.11. Earnings after the bell today.

Closing ROKU

Bought to close $ROKU Aug 19 60/55 bull put spread @ .47. Sold for 1.50 on 7/29.

SPY 8/5

BTO $SPY Aug 5 410 calls @ 3.94 for a daytrade. Looking for what could be that long forgotten Friday afternoon rally we used to see so much of before 2022. Will close out on a pullback, but definitely before the end of the day regardless.

ROKU post earnings

Sold to open $ROKU 8/19 60/55 bull put spread @ 1.50

FOMC

Looking for a big move here post announcement (likely 75 bps) and planning to fade whatever that move is after the dust settles. GDP report tomorrow as well which will probably be a confirmation that we’re in a recession. Or not…

T2108 now under 10

Latest reading 9.90

T2108

Around 16.50, 15 minutes after the open.

Closing MRNA

Bought to close $MRNA Jun 17 150/160 bear call spread @ .24. Sold for 1.60 on 5/24.

Fading MRNA

The bloom is off the rose. Sell to open $MRNA Jun 17 150/160 bear call spread @ 1.60.

AMZN falling knife

I’m thinking this could be a good level but with a huge price tag and a 20:1 split coming up I think I’ll wait until after it officially starts trading split adjusted on June 6. Once options open up I’ll probably look to sell something that would be 1,000-1,100 today so maybe 50-60 in mid June, with maybe a Jan 2023 expiration, if the stock doesn’t take off to the upside between now and then.

T2108

Currently 13.50

NFLX put spread

Sold to open $NFLX Jun 17 160/150 bull put spread @ 2.03

BYND put spread

Post earnings bouncing off the lows, sold to open $BYND Jun 17 20/15 bull put spread @ 1.20

T2108 update

Got to around 12 today

SPOT put spread

Sold $SPOT Jun 17 90/80 bull put spread @ 1.85

DIS Falling Knife

Tempted to bite at this #FallingKnife. Maybe sell Jan 2023 60 puts currently around 1.00. Strike is the lowest in the chain and 20 points below the pandemic low from March 2020. Watching. Does Mickey still have further to fall?

NFLX put spread

The craziness seems to be slowing down. Sold to open $NFLX May 20 190/180 bull put spread @ 2.05 credit, short puts 22 delta. Price got down to -4 standard deviations.

USO Butterfly

Borrowing an idea from TastyTrade.
Sold $USO May 20 77/80/89 broken wing butterfly @ .90 credit.

Closing June TSLA

Bought to close $TSLA Jun 17 600 put @ 4.35. Sold for 21.00 on 1/6. Taking it off for around 80% of the max profit a couple of months early.

SNOW Mar

Post-earnings sold to open $SNOW Mar 18 200/190 bull put spread @ 1.90

Rolling TQQQ

Rolled $TQQQ Feb 18 62.50 puts out to Mar 18 62.50 @ .85 credit

TQQQ March

Sold to open $TQQQ Mar 18 40 puts @ 1.20

Rolling LABU

Rolled Feb 18 24 puts down and out to Mar 18 23 puts @ .40 credit with the underlying at 19.50

Closing SPOT

Bought to close Feb 18 150/140 bull put spread @ .60. Sold for 2.00 on 2/3.

VXX puts

Bought to open $VXX Feb 25 22 puts @ 3.11 with VXX around 20. Looking for further contract in volatility. VIX still above 22.

SPOT Feb

Post-earnings sold to open $SPOT Feb 18 150/140 bull put spread @ 2.00

Volatility

And here comes the $VIX and /VX futures back down

SPY head & shoulder

$SPY On 1/13 I posted about a completed head & shoulder on the daily. If we just went with pure technicals/measured move then the projected moved down would have been around 23 points from the top of the head to the neckline. Going 23 points down from there to calculate measured move would bring us to around SPY 433. Currently trading near there at 432.50.

Of course this is a minimum measured move but still notable IMO. For what it’s worth.

NFLX put spread

Sold $NFLX Feb 18 350/340 bull put spread @ 2.55. IV rank 87.

UVXY call spreads

Sold to open Mar 18 30/40 bear call spread @ 1.10

Worden charts

T2108
Screen Shot 2022-01-24 at 8.52.18 AM

T2122
Screen Shot 2022-01-24 at 8.52.34 AM

T2108

Bouncing around 14

VIX futures

Not that it’s much of a surprise but the futures have flipped to backwardation.
http://vixcentral.com/

SPY chart

$SPY Seeing what looks like the completion of a head & shoulder on the daily. Be careful out there.

AMZN 1/28

Speculative trade/small position. Sold to open $AMZN Jan 28 3090/3080 bull put spread @ 1.80. Strikes are below the big flush/intraday low on 1/10. Expiration is prior to earnings.

TQQQ 2/25

Sold to open $TQQQ Feb 25 110 put @ 5.55

Rolling TQQQ

Rolled $TQQQ Jan 14 140 put down 15 points and out to 2/18 125 put @ 1.60 credit.

Closing AMC

Bought to close $AMC Jan 21 22 puts @ 2.12. Sold for 2.30 on 12/17.

Closing AMZN

Bought to close $AMZN Jan 21 3150/3200/3800/3850 iron condor @ 26.55. Sold for 14.40 on 12/9.

Closing DIS

Taking this off a couple of months early. Bought to close March 18 115 puts @ .35. Sold for 2.04 on 12/3.

TQQQ 1/14

Sold to open $TQQQ Jan 14 140 put @ 2.85

XBI Feb

Sold to open $XBI Feb 18 95 puts @ 1.80. Strike at 20 delta and at a level the underlying as seen in over a year and a half. IV very high (IV rank 65).

AAPL short puts

Sold to open $AAPL Feb 18 155 puts @ 1.90. Delta 16. Strike is near support, about 10 points below the 50 day moving average. ER 1/27.

TSLA June

Not quite a #FallingKnife with the stock technically still in an uptrend but with my short Jan 600 put likely to expire in a couple of weeks I thought I would take advantage of this increase in volatility to sell another longer term position.

Sold to open $TSLA 6/17 600 put @ 21.00.

QQQ Feb

Going back in. Sold to open $QQQ Feb 18 360/370/415/425 iron condor @ 2.78.

Closing LABU

Bought to close $LABU Jan 7 30 puts @ .29

Closing QQQ

Was waiting for a decent pullback in the Nasdaq to get out of this. Bought to close $QQQ Jan 21 350/360/410/420 iron condor @ .92. Sold for 2.75 on 12/15.

Closing ADBE

Bought to close $ADBE Jan 21 525/505 bull put spread @ 1.50. Sold for 4.15 on 12/16

Happy New Year to the Bistro Family!

Wishing all of you a healthy, happy and prosperous 2022.

LABU Feb

Sold to open $LABU Feb 18 24 puts @ 1.05

Closing DOCU

Bought to close $DOCU Jan 21 130/120 bull put spread @ .67. Sold for 3.21 on 12/3. Don’t want to wait a month for the last 20%.

Closing LABU 12/31

Bought to close $LABU Dec 31 30 puts @ .15. Sold for 1.40 on 12/9.

Taking some LABU off

Bought to close Dec 23 32 puts @ .30. Sold for 1.45 on 12/9

T2108

Current reading 14.70
Screen Shot 2021-12-20 at 8.14.55 AM

AMC Jan

Sold to open $AMC Jan 21 22 puts @ 2.30. 22 delta.

ADBE post-earnings

Not calling a bottom but definitely slowing downside momentum. Sold $ADBE Jan 21 525/505 bull put spread @ 4.15. Short puts 26 delta, IV still high, IV rank 60.

QQQ Iron Condor

Sold to open Jan 21 350/360/410/420 iron condor @ 2.75. Short strikes at 20 delta. IV rank 48.

LABU ladder

Sold the following ladder:
$LABU Dec 23 32 puts @ 1.45
$LABU Dec 31 30 puts @ 1.40
$LABU Jan 7 30 puts @ 1.80

AMZN Iron Condor

Selling some premium here with IV still a bit elevated. Sold to open $AMZN Jan 21 3150/3200/3800/3850 iron condor @ 14.40. Short puts 17 delta, short calls 21 delta.

Closing CAT for a small profit

Been rolling this one around since I put the original 185/220 strangle on. Position was rolled down and up 3 times to end up with a 200 straddle.

Bought to close $CAT 12/17 200 straddle @ 8.30. Total premium taken in 8.66, so a profit of .36.

Will look to reinitiate something in Jan with IV still elevated.

DIS long term short puts

An OG @optioniceman #FallingKnife trade. Sold $DIS Mar 18 2022 115 puts @ 2.04, delta 12. Stock trading at 145.50, down around 30% from its 2021 highs. The strike price is at a level not seen since July 2020. If it’s below that price in March I’ll likely take assignment for just under 113.

DOCU-slammed

Down 40% after earnings.
Sold to open $DOCU Jan 21 130/120 bull put spread @ 3.21

Closing SPX

BTC $SPX Dec 4520/4545/4705/4730 iron condor @ 9.20. Sold for 4.10 this morning.