Hey good morning everyone. Hope you all have been safe and trading well.
Kelly
Author Archives: Kelly
#VIX trade A couple of…
#VIX trade
A couple of weeks ago I posted that I put on a Feb VIX trade looking for a volatility expansion. Clearly that didn’t happen, yet, so I’ll be trying to take that off today for as close to even as I can. Will re-evaluate whether or not to put a similar trade back on, but further out in time. Likely April.
Kelly
$DIS #CoveredCallRoll Rolled Jan 24…
$DIS #CoveredCallRoll
Rolled Jan 24 $135 call to Feb 14 $136 call for $0.05 debit.
Hope you guys are having a great week.
With the VIX this low…
With the VIX this low and the market going straight up. I put this trade on this morning to profit from any volatility spikes we might get. Put on several of these.
STO Feb 20 VIX $14 call
BTO Feb 20 VIX $18 calls (3)
STO Feb 20 VIX $22 call
I was able to put these on for $0.35 debit, so very low out of pocket if nothing happens. Pretty good profit if something does happen.
Kelly
Good Morning everyone at the Bistro.
It’s been far too long since I checked in with you. Hope your trading has been going great.
I have continued to only day trade /NQ in my trading account. I like the ability to make some money in the first 60 to 90 minutes of the trading day, then go flat, shut everything down and go about my day. Don’t have to worry about after hour craziness. The trades I make tend to be very short in time span (usually only a few minutes).
I will make a concerted effort to stop in here a lot more.
Have a great trading day.
Kelly
Hey Gang,
For those of you who wish to read this, here’s what’s been going on with me. I had already announced that I planned to retire in April, the volatility mess in Feb hurt, and it sucked big time, but it did not change the calculus on retirement plans. I have never mentioned this, on purpose, but worked for Rockwell Collins ($COL now part of $UTX) for 32 years. I had worked my way into a very unique position where I was the only person in the company doing what I did. I was involved in projects with very senior leaders where I wasn’t even allowed to tell my boss what I was doing. So, my retirement caused them some grief trying to figure out what to do since I could not be directly replaced by anyone in the organization. I spent Feb, Mar and April training a number of different people to take over the things I was working. That took all of my time and effort, so had to just walk away from the market altogether.
Even before the Feb mess occurred, I had been wanting to move away from what I was doing and head for futures day trading. I liked the idea of being able to be flat at the end of every day and not have to worry about after hour shenanigans, or what was happening in China, etc…. Had spent quite a bit of time picking @Fibwizard‘s brain and working on a strategy that would work for me. Once I retired, I dove pretty deep into it and figured out a good approach, but eventually had to look elsewhere. I had figured out a strategy that I could implement, and if I had still been working and at my computer all day, would have gone that way. But, with retirement, I didn’t want to spend all day staring at my screen waiting for the right setups. Lots of other things I wanted to do with my time.
Around that time @smasty160 told me about a guy named Tony Rago @ TheoTrade who was trading /NQ futures with other traders, calling out what they were doing real time in a live chat room. I spent some time studying his approach and watching. I then started paper trading it on TOS. The worst possible thing that could have happened, happened, for the next 3 weeks it worked beautifully and I killed it. So I decided to go live. First day, first trade ended up a very small loss, no biggie. Next trade, got long, and seconds later a Washington headline crushed the market and I had to hit eject as it just kept heading south, no rebound at all to give me a better exit. After what happened in Feb, the last thing I wanted was to be starting something new and losing money at it. So had to be back to paper trading. 3 weeks later when I had some confidence back and was consistently making money, first day back trading real money and you guessed it, bang, another headline hit while I was long and got crushed again.
Not much you can do about the headline risk, but the better I get at trading, the fewer trades I have to take to make my goal for the day and thus the less amount of time actually being exposed to the market.
His overall approach makes sense and Tony put a lot of time and effort into developing it, but I wasn’t really happy with it as is:
1) Sometimes it worked right away
2) Sometimes it worked but you had to deal with some heat first (never feels good as you don’t know if it will continue to go against you or not), which is OK with Tony, he accepts it as part of his thesis. Since it is his, and he put the time into developing it, he has that level of confidence in it. Me, not so much.
3) Sometimes it just plain didn’t work
I before I spent any more capital, I wanted try to figure out how to put the odds on my side
I needed a better set of rules to use.
I spent months fine tuning the approach, trading for a few weeks, analyzing failures. Lather, rinse, repeat. I’ve had times I went 3 weeks trading without a single loosing trade only to have it start to fail so spent more time tweaking. I have definitely put my time into it. I now have time frames, EMA’s and patterns identified that put the edge dramatically in my favor when entering a trade. Still working on my execution, having the patience to wait for the high probability setups and identifying them real time as they are developing, they are always obvious later looking at the chart :). I trade for about the first hour of trading, 1.5 hrs max.
On the flip side, retirement definitely doesn’t suck. I’ve been loving it.
Good Morning everyone,
Very Sorry about how long I’ve been away. Hope you have been killing it. I’ll make a longer post a little later today telling you what I’ve been up to.
Kelly
$VIX and /VX are within…
$VIX and /VX are within pennies. We’ll see what happens with the Fed minutes. As long as the market doesn’t freak out, could be in contango very soon.
$SVXY
#CoverCalls
Started to sell some calls this morning
STO Mar 9 $15 calls @ $0.30
Awesome background Jeff
Awesome background Jeff
@fibwizard Sent you an email…
@fibwizard Sent you an email with a question about the Sierra platform
Had to drop the Vxx…
Had to drop the Vxx prefix on my handle.
$SPX has bounced 40 pts…
$SPX has bounced 40 pts off the low
$SPX
Now past 5% pull back, 6% is at $2700.
Sitting within a couple points of the 50sma right now, we’ll see if that comes into play or not.
$SVXY
Was away from the market for the first hour this morning so the first batch of trades were GTC orders that got hit. Didn’t get a chance to enter new trades until now. Added a couple more following some of @optioniceman trades.
STO Feb 16 $73 puts @ $0.56
STO Mar 2 $75 put @ $1.65
STO Apr 20 $70 put @ $3.95
We’ll see if the market stabilizes here or if this is just a rest area on the way to lower prices.
$SVXY $UVXY
Sold at the open
$UVXY Feb 16 $35 calls @ $0.33
$UVXY Mar 9 $26 calls @ $1.56
$UVXY Mar 16 $35 calls @ $1.34
$UVXY Apr 20 $26 call @$3.22
$UVXY Jun 15 $60 call @ $2.20
$SVXY Sep $60 put @ $7.85
OptionsExpiration
$SVXY $90 puts
$SVXY $95 puts
Made these trades when $SVXY bounced back up to $108 @ about @2:25 central, as I was going to be away from the market for the last 1/2 hour of trading.
BTC $SVXY $105 puts @ $0.40 (sold for $0.60), got out with a profit
Rolled $SVXY $110 puts to Feb 23 $90 puts and Mar 9 $85 puts for credits. Moved them out in time and strike price.
Considered taking assignment, but decided to roll instead as there was potential for more downside early next week.
$SVXY
STO SVXY Jun $40 put @ $1.50
$RCL #CoveredCalls Rolled Feb 2…
$RCL #CoveredCalls
Rolled Feb 2 $125 call to Feb 23 $126 call for even
$SVXY $UVXY
STO $UVXY Mar 2 $26 calls @ $0.70
STO $SVXY Mar 9 $65 puts @ $0.85
#CoveredCalls #Rolling $DWDP BTC Feb…
#CoveredCalls #Rolling
$DWDP BTC Feb 2 $71.5 call @ $.45 (Sold for $4.20), STO Feb 16 $72 call @ $.95
$ATVI Rolled Feb 2 $66 call to Feb 16 $66.50 call for $0.15 credit
Still working on rolling $RCL
$UVXY
STO Apr 20 $26 call @ $1.90
$C
Looks like I missed this one yesterday
STO Feb 23 $74.5 puts @ $0.40
$SVXY $UVXY
#VXXGame Made these trades at various points this morning, was in a meeting when the real spike happened so totally missed my chance there. Just waiting now to see what happens later today/into the close.
STO SVXY Feb 9 $95 puts @ $1.15
STO SVXY Feb 16 $80 puts @ $$0.80
STO SVXY Feb 16 $87 put @ $1.45
STO SVXY Apr 20 $50 put @ $0.95
STO SVXY Apr 20 $55 put @ $1.59
STO SVXY Apr 20 $60 put @ $2.07
STO SVXY Apr 20 $65 put @ $2.60
STO UVXY Feb 9 $17 calls @ $0.42
STO UVXY Feb 16 $22 calls @ $0.45
STO UVXY Feb 16 $11.5/$13.5 call spreads @ $0.60
STO UVXY Feb 23 $20 calls @ $0.70
STO UVXY Mar 2 $20 calls @ $0.71
$SVXY
Had a couple more orders fill while I was away this afternoon
STO $SVXY Feb 9 $100 puts @ $1.00
STO $SVXY Mar 16 $55 puts @ $0.60
STO $SVXY Mar 16 $60 puts @ $0.80
STO $SVXY Mar 16 $70 puts @ $1.30
$SVXY
Added 2 more
STO $SVXY Feb 16 $90 put @ $1.07
STO $SVXY Feb 16 $99 put @ $1.75
$SVXY
Added a couple more
STO $SVXY Feb 2 $105 puts @ $0.50
STO $SVXY Feb 9 $85 puts @ $0.45
$SVXY
Did a little short term nibbling this morning
STO $SVXY Feb 2 $11o puts @ $0.60
STO $SVXY Feb 9 $90 puts @ $0.40
STO $SVXY Feb 16 $95 puts @ $1.15
STO $SVXY Feb 23 $85 puts @ $1.00
OptionsExpiration
$SVXY $90 puts
$SVXY $92 puts
$SVXY $95 puts
$SVXY $100 puts
$RCL
#Coveredcalls
Yesterday it was looking like I was going to be able to roll these up and out for a nice credit, the move higher today now has them far enough ITM that it’s tough to do without going out in time. So rolled out 2 weeks and we’ll see if we get any sort of weakness that will allow the next roll to be out and up for a credit.
Rolled $RCL Jan 26 $127 calls to Feb 9 $127 calls for $0.50 credit
$SVXY
No market access again today, but had a couple of GTC orders get hit
STO Mar 2 $80 puts @ $1.15
STO Mar 16 $75 puts @ $1.55
These were following @optioniceman trades from yesterday.
OptionsExpiration
$C $72.5 puts
$SVXY $25 puts
$SVXY $45 puts
$SVXY $65 puts
$SVXY $110 puts
A pretty small expiration for a Jan Monthly for me. Was very reserved putting on new short options positions during the fall.
Rolling #CoveredCalls Won’t have much…
Rolling #CoveredCalls
Won’t have much access to the market this afternoon so taking care of a couple of rolls this morning.
Rolled $ATVI Jan 19 $65.5 calls to Feb 2 $66 calls for even
Rolled $RCL Jan 19 $124 calls to Feb 2 $125 calls for $0.65 credit
$SVXY $UVXY
I entered some orders before the open as the day job was going to keep me away from the market.
These were the fills I got.
$SVXY Jan 26 $92 puts @ $0.60
$SVXY Jan 26 $90 puts @ $0.40
$SVXY Feb 2 $95 puts @ $0.80
$SVXY Feb 16 $85 puts @ $1.35 (added to position)
$UVXY Mar 16 $19 calls @ $1.05
$UVXY Mar 16 $9/$11 call spreads @ $0.51
Would have done better if I had been able to watch the market. @optioniceman got some great fills.
OptionsExpiration
$SVXY $65 puts
Other trades today
Closed Jan 12 $UVXY $8/$9.5 call spreads @ $0.60 (sold for $0.75) made lunch $
$DWDP Rolled #CoveredCalls from Jan 12 $71 to Feb 2 $71.50 for even, last of my stock so holding a bit longer
$RCL Rolled #CoveredCalls from Jan 12 $125 to Jan 26 $127 for @0.61 credit.
$SVXY
Was pretty busy with the day job this morning. Just aren’t getting much for opportunities for entering these trades. Since I’m very low on open #VXXGame positions, followed @optioniceman and @ramie77 making a few trades myself this morning.
STO $SVXY Jan 19 $110 puts @ $0.62
STO $SVXY Jan 26 $95 puts @ $0.60
STO $SVXY Feb 9 $75 puts @ $0.55
STO $SVXY Feb 16 $85 puts @ $1.22
$GPRO
Getting slammed
OptionsExpiration
Might be my smallest expiration in years
$C $72 puts
$RCL $124 #coveredcalls
No $SVXY, $UVXY or $VXX expirations this week
Running pretty low on short option positions.
$UVXY
#VXXGame
OK, I got bored. Entered this defined risk trade based on upside warning and potential continued decline in $UVXY
STO Jan 12 $UVXY $8/$9.50 call spreads @ $0.74
Doesn’t take much of a drop for this to be profitable
$RCL
#Coveredcall
Stock looking weak today, likely because of the big storm on the east coast, probably stay weak into next week.
STO $RCL Jan 19 $124 call @ $1.35, early replacement of $124 call expiring tomorrow.
$C
STO Jan 19 $72.5 puts @ $0.35
$SMG
OK, file this under better lucky than good. I wanted to buy some $SMG stock on a pull back so had a GTC order sitting there at $103.25. Down draft this morning took it to $103 and bounced, back above $107 now.
#OptionExpiration Hey Gang, hope you…
#OptionExpiration
Hey Gang, hope you had a profitable week. Took the week off to spend with family. Had to make a couple of trades just before the close on some ITM #CoveredCalls.
Expired
$SVXY $65 puts
$SVXY $70 puts
$SVXY $75 puts
Allowing to be exercised
$V $112 #CoveredCalls
$DWDP $70.5 #CoveredCall, allowing another 1/3 of position to be called away
Other Trade
Rolled $DWDP $70.5 12/29 #CoveredCalls to 1/12 $71 for $.10 credit
OptionsExpiration
$SVXY $70 puts
$SVXY $75 puts
$SVXY $80 puts
$UVXY $ 22.50 calls (last $UVXY position other than Jan’19 Leaps)
$RCL $124 #coveredcalls
$DWDP $71 calls, allowing 1/3 of position to be called away
Other trades today
Rolled $V $112 #Coveredcalls from 12/22 to 12/29 for $0.50 credit
STO $RCL Jan 5 $124 calls @ $1.20 to replace those expiring today.
I’m getting really bored
OptionsExpiration
$DWDP $71 #coveredcalls
$FB $170 puts
$QQQ $151.5/$146.5 bull put spreads
$SVXY $25 puts
$SVXY $70 puts
$SVXY $75 puts
$SVXY $80 puts
$SVXY $82.50 puts
$SVXY $85 puts
$SVXY $105/$100/$90 put Butterfly’s
$UVXY $20.5 calls
$UVXY $23 calls
$UVXY $31 calls
Other trades made today.
BTC $MSFT Dec 22 $81 puts @ $.03, (sold $.42)
BTC $SQ Dec 15 $38 puts @ $1.00, (sold $.50) chose not to get assigned, don’t like they way it is trading
STO $DWDP Dec 29 $70.5 calls @ $0.55, replacing expiring calls
Rolled $RCL #Coveredcalls from Dec 15 $123 to Dec 22 $124 for $0.05 credit, want to hold the stock a bit longer
Day job has been really consuming my time so have done very little trading.
Have a great weekend everyone.
#Market $SPX down 10.82 and…
#Market
$SPX down 10.82 and $UVXY just doesn’t care
$RCL
#Coveredcalls STO Dec 29 $125 calls @ $0.80, BTC Dec 15 $128 calls @ $0.02
$C
#bitties
STO Jan 5 $72 puts @ $0.34
$C
BTC Dec 15 $72 puts @ $0.04, sold for $0.40
$DWDP
STO Dec 22 $71 #coveredcall @ $0.80, replacing call that expired last friday.
OptionsExpiration
Spent friday and saturday trying to get home from Florida, so just now getting a chance to post these.
$DWDP $71 coveredcalls
$SVXY $70 puts
$SVXY $80 puts
$SVXY $85 puts
$SVXY $90 puts
$UVXY $16 calls
$UVXY $17.5 calls
$UVXY $23.5 calls
$UVXY $30 calls
Hope you all had a great weekend.
Today’s Trades
This working for a living thing is really cramping my ability to trade and post.
At lunch today I was able to place a couple of trades that filled this afternoon. Took a little risk off the table and booked some profits just in case tomorrow got ugly.
$EA BTC Dec 15 $101 puts @ $0.60, break even, don’t like the way the these stocks have been trading.
$FB BTC Dec 15 $170 puts @ $0.38, sold for $0.93, still have more sold at $1.72
$UVXY BTC Dec 8 $12.5 calls @ $0.55, sold for $1.20 as part of a $12.5/$13.5 spread. Closed the $13.50’s for a small profit yesterday, never got a chance to post.
$SQ may have bottomed
$SQ may have bottomed
OptionsExpiration
Fairly light week
$ATVI $65.5o #covercalls
$FB $170 puts
$SVXY $50 puts
$SVXY $80 puts
$UVXY $22 calls
Have a great weekend everyone.
$SVXY $UVXY
$SVXY $UVXY
Since I’m way late I didn’t get aggressive, but did add a few positions.
$UVXY STO Dec 8 $23.5 calls @ $0.33
$UVXY STO Dec 15 $31 calls @ $0.35
$SVXY STO Mar’18 $45 put @ $1.40 (added to position)
$SVXY STO Dec 29 $65 puts @ $0.75
$SVXY STO Dec 8 $80 puts @ $0.55
$SVXY STO Dec 8 $85 puts @ $0.77
Wow, I went to a…
Wow, I went to a couple of meetings and missed quite a move in the market.
$C $SVXY
STO $C Dec 15 $72 puts @ $0.40
followed @optioniceman on a couple of $SVXY trades, just nibbling
STO Mar $45 put @ $1.17
STO Jan 19 $65 puts @ $1.12
For as strong as /NQ…
For as strong as /NQ is today, many stocks having pretty weak bounce. $FB, $SQ, $NFLX, $TSLA, $GOOGL etc… $AAPL and $MSFT seem to be doing the heavy lifting today.
$RCL
Looks like share holders are flipping the bird to the person that downgraded it this morning.
Got busy with the whole…
Got busy with the whole day job thing this morning so just catching up now.
Trades made this morning.
$UVXY BTC Dec 15 $87 calls @ $0.01, sold for $0.32
$UVXY BTC Dec 15 $91 calls @ $0.01, sold for $0.62
$UVXY BTC 25/100 Dec 15 $37 calls @ $0.01, sold for $2.40
$C BTC Dec 8 $70.5 puts @ $0.05, sold for $0.46 on Monday
$DWDP rolled Dec 1 $70.5 #coveredcalls to Dec 15 $71 calls for $0.08 credit.
Very interesting that the $VIX…
Very interesting that the $VIX is hitting HOD at the same time the indexes are strong. When was the last time the $SPX was up 28 pts and the $VIX was up like 7%??? People paying up to pay for protection. At some point that will stop and I think we see a vol crush. $VIX screaming higher but /VX not doing much.
Very strange market today. The…
Very strange market today. The $IYT is trading like they are hauling bitcoin, retailers are acting like they are selling bitcoin in the stores, the banks are apparently converting all of their deposits into bitcoin and $/NQ is flailing like a scuba diver 110 pts below the surface stuck under a rock with an empty air tank.
$FB
After the bounce showed some life. Expires friday.
STO Dec 1 $170 puts @ $0.56
$UVXY
STO Dec 22 $22.5 calls @ $0.36, didn’t have any positions at this expiration yet.
$V $NDX
Bought $V stock on the bounce @ $108, if it continues to bounce higher I will sell covered call against
STO $NDX Dec 15 $6125/$6120 put spreads @ $0.55
$FB
STO Dec 15 $170 puts @ $0.93 Followed @smasty trade from yesterday but wanted to enter on weakness. Didn’t catch the bottom but like the $170 level.
$SQ #fallingknife candidate in the…
$SQ #fallingknife candidate in the making
Major drop today, look for opportunities to sell puts
$SVXY
A couple of small short term trades just in case the we don’t get a pull back near term. Upside warning is telling me a pull back of any size is not likely in the next couple of weeks.
STO Dec 8 $90 puts @ $0.50
STO Dec 15 $80 puts @ $0.37
$C
At the open, STO $C Dec 8 $70.5 puts @ $0.46
OptionsExpiration
EA $105 puts
SVXY $50 puts
SVXY $80 puts
SVXY $85 puts
UVXY $24 calls
UVXY $25 calls
UVXY $39 calls
Other trades today
STO $EA Dec 15 $101 puts @ $0.60 (replacing expiring puts)
Rolled $RCL Nov 24 $124 #coveredcalls to Dec 15 $128 calls for $0.35 credit
Just checking in.
Been taking the week off from trading and spending time with my family in Denver. Had some time on my hands so thought I’d see what you guy’s were up to.
Have a great week everyone.
OptionsExpiration
SVXY $55 puts
SVXY $80 puts
SVXY $100/$95 put spreads
UVXY $22 calls
UVXY $40 calls
UVXY $50 calls
MSFT $81/$78 put spreads
Other trades today
BTC DWDP 11/17 $71/66 put spreads @ $0.10
BTC C 11/17 $71.5 puts @ $0.05
BTC IWM 11/24 puts @ $0.05
BTC SPX 11/20 $2555/$2550 put spreads @ $0.10
BTC RCL 11/17 $124 puts @ $1.25, bought stock @ $122.71 wanted to own the stock and cheaper to buy them vs getting assigned. Didn’t think they had chance of closing above $124, but they did. Still made more $ going long the stock than I lost by closing early vs letting expire.
$SVXY
At the open, STO Dec 8 $70 puts @ $0.67
Taking profits and lightening up on strength today.
STC $RHT Dec 15 $120 calls @ $6.50, bought for $4.90 (closed too early, but taking profits)
BTC $SPX Nov 17 $2560/$2555 put spreads @ $0.30, sold for $0.85 (looks like I took off too early but market looked a little shakey there at one point so went ahead and closed these)
SVXY
STO Nov 24 $80 puts @ $0.50
STO Dec 29 $70 puts @ $2.00
