Tag Archives: Fuzzy

fuzzballl 12:19 pm on Friday, October 28, 2022
Tags: , Fuzzy, , ,   

ADBE AMZN MSFT NVDA SOXL SPY TQQQ XBI

#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls #SyntheticStock #JadeLizards – A little of everything.

ADBE: Blew through the top so taking it early.

Bought to Close ADBE NOV 18 2022 270.0/310.0/315.0 Jade Lizard @ 4.25 (sold for 7.35)

AMZN: Starting a Jan 2025 synthetic stock position. Sold weekly against.

Sold AMZN JAN 17 2025 100.0 Puts // Bought AMZN JAN 17 2025 100.0 Calls @ 8.31 and 8.89 (synthetic stock)

Sold AMZN NOV 4 2022 100.0 Calls @ 2.56 and 2.89

MSFT: Bouncing so taking off the call side of the Jade Lizard leaving a short put.

Bought to Close MSFT NOV 18 2022 245.0/250.0 Bear Call Spread @ .83 (Lizard sold for 5.25)

NVDA: A little of everything.

Bought to Close NVDA OCT 28 2022 135.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 7.80)

Sold NVDA NOV 4 2022 140.0 Put @ 6.05

Rolled NVDA OCT 28 2022 130.0 Calls to NOV 11 2022 136.0 Calls @ even (1.35 total now)
Rolled NVDA OCT 28 2022 130.0 Calls to NOV 18 2022 140.0 Calls @ .25 credit (1.55 total now)

SOXL: Covered rolling.

Rolled SOXL OCT 28 2022 9.0 Calls to NOV 4 2022 10.0 Calls @ .03 credit (.23 total now)

SPY: Rolling.

Rolled SPY OCT 28 2022 380.0 Call to NOV 4 2022 384.0 Call @ .25 credit (2.85 total now)
Rolled SPY OCT 28 2022 381.0 Call to NOV 4 2022 386.0 Call @ .02 credit (2.30 total now)
Rolled SPY OCT 28 2022 382.0 Calls to NOV 4 2022 387.0 Calls @ .46 credit (2.45 total now)

TQQQ: Another round.

Bought to Close TQQQ OCT 28 2022 23.0 Calls @ .01 (sold for .36)
Sold TQQQ NOV 4 2022 22.5 Calls @ .50

XBI: The gift that keeps on giving. Rolling covered and reloading.

Bought to Close XBI OCT 28 2022 80.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 4.50)
Bought to Close XBI OCT 28 2022 81.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 4.45)
Bought to Close XBI OCT 28 2022 81.5 Puts @ .05 (sold for 3.45)
Bought to Close XBI OCT 28 2022 82.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 3.45)
Bought to Close XBI OCT 28 2022 82.5 Put @ .05 (sold for 3.45)

Sold XBI NOV 4 2022 81.5 Puts @ 2.02
Sold XBI NOV 4 2022 82.5 Puts @ 2.11
Sold XBI NOV 4 2022 83.0 Puts @ 2.35
Sold XBI NOV 4 2022 84.0 Put @ 2.60

Rolled XBI OCT 28 2022 78.0 Call to NOV 4 2022 78.5 Call @ .21 credit (1.73 total now)
Rolled XBI OCT 28 2022 78.5 Calls to NOV 4 2022 79.5 Calls @ .50 credit (2.35 total now)

#fuzzy

jefflsmith 6:58 am on Thursday, October 22, 2020
Tags: , Fuzzy   

Adjusting ABT Covered Call following earnings announcement…..logic and action taken

https://coveredcallswithjeff.wordpress.com/2020/10/22/adjusting-abt-covered-call-in-reaction-to-announcement-of-good-quarterly-earnings-and-raised-guidance-and-stock-drops-2/

#coveredcalls, #fuzzy

Ramie 11:08 am on Monday, February 10, 2020
Tags: Fuzzy   

GILD short puts

Been looking for an opportunity to get back into this stock. Nice setup and still high IV (IVR 60). Sold 3/20 65 puts @ 1.59. The major moving averages converging above the strike price so if support doesn’t hold down there I’ll exit. Alternative trade 3/20 65/60 bull put spread for 1.30-1.35.

#fuzzy

mortlightman 10:45 am on Thursday, January 9, 2020
Tags: Fuzzy   

UBER

Closed #Fuzzy $3.55 Net $212.00 2 Wks

BTO Jan 31 33/35 BuCS $0.86 in-out spread

mortlightman 8:29 am on Tuesday, January 7, 2020
Tags: Fuzzy   

UBER

Sorry forgot to post this one.
12-26 BTO #Fuzzy Buy Jan 24 30 Call Sell BPS 30/29 Net cost $1.37 Up nicely at this time. Earnings near EOM

smasty 6:32 am on Tuesday, December 10, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

#Fuzzy VXX Bot Dec 17.5…

#Fuzzy VXX

Bot Dec 17.5 Fuzzy last week for tariff hedge, .18 net debit
Sold at the open for .20 net credit
Basically a scratch

Sue

smasty 7:00 am on Thursday, December 5, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

#Fuzzy VXX Charlie McElligot at…

#Fuzzy VXX

Charlie McElligot at Nomura is issuing a lot of gamma red flag warnings for a vol shock. What the heck…a nice time to dust off a fuzzy in VXX.

Dec 20 Bot 17.5 call
Dec 20 Sold 17.5 put
Dec 20 Bot 15.5 put
Net price: .18 debit

I would guess vol stays steady here due to upcoming tariff increases on Dec 15, so I think not much decay on this–it’s a cheap way to get on some long gamma.

hcgdavis 8:21 am on Thursday, November 14, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy,   

EXPE earnings disaster

Rolled the 125 #jadelizard converted to a #fuzzy down to 95/95 strikes. Short option 15 DTE. When all cleared my cost basis is now 37.33. Need about 0.33 per week to break even and have until Jan 2022 to do it.

I am done with earnings. Too random and binary. 6 out of 9 of my earnings trades this year imploded even with some limited risk positions.

This one trade reduced my yearly profits by about 20% for the year even being only a 7% position in my portfolio.

Black swans are more common than the options price for.

hcgdavis 6:50 am on Thursday, November 7, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy,   

Earnings blow up EXPE

Did not take my own advice, tried another earnings trade and now losing 6 out of 9. EXPE missed earnings by 0.60 and down over night by 17. Opened this morning down 31 or 22%. Had a #jadelizard at 125/144/145. Obviously the 125 are now way ITM.

Converted to a #fuzzy but will take a long time to make the loss back. Bought the 2022 125 put for 27.92 plus will use some more cash to roll my short put down and out.

Will let the call side expire worthless just to now spend any more money on the trade. This had been my biggest winner for the year. 1 night wiped out 11 months of gains on EXPE.

hcgdavis 2:05 pm on Thursday, October 24, 2019
Tags: , Fuzzy, , ,   

#assignment Letting LABU, TQQQ and…

#assignment

Letting LABU, TQQQ and TNA all be called out tomorrow. All profitable but I am exiting the triple game after seeing the tasty trade research.

Also staying out of earnings as much as I can. My earnings track record is not so good, lost on 8 out of 5 when I decided to stay out a few quarters ago. I will stay in them if I already have #fuzzy on.

Making enough money just doing #pietrades, #fuzzy, #hedges, and Pie trade #optionladder that I can stick with those. May be boring to some, but it is mechanical and it works. 2 accounts hit all time highs the last 2 weeks and both had SVXY in them. 2 down, 1 to go but that was the biggest loss and will take more time but on a portfolio basis I am back above my cost basis so technically all the losses have been covered 🙂

20 months to break even.

Plan not to ever do that again 🙂 🙂

And the hedges will help, see below.

hcgdavis 8:52 am on Tuesday, October 8, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy, ,   

#markettide Is showing a possible…

#markettide

Is showing a possible reversal on the 5 minute for /ES.

IBB STO the other side of the strangle at 103 c for 0.65 for 11/8 exp. Strangle is now the 101.5/103 for 3.45 credit total after some rolls. I am trying this as an experiment based on the TT research. Open initially at 43-45 DTE then manage at 21 DTE no matter what. Rolled the put side last week. They showed that beats all other management tactics for selling options so seeing how it works in real time with real money. 10 contracts so there is some skin in the game. So far so good, showing an $875 profit even with the puts being ITM. If it works will set up ladders on various ETFs. Single tickers would use #jadelizard to avoid upside risk.

#fuzzy
XBI rolled the short 80 put from 10 DTE out to 24 DTE for 0.42 credit. Cb 13.66.
LNG 60/65 rolled out to 45 DTE for 0.52 credit. Cb 7.12.

hcgdavis 8:42 am on Thursday, October 3, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy, ,   

I have been trying to…

I have been trying to move out of the leveraged ETFs but am stuck in a few for a while. Tastytrade did some research that shows trading options on the leveraged has much lower returns than just trading the regular ETF. Even accounting for contango/drift/ backwardization. My personal results show that as well. I know a lot of people here trade them but it may be more effective to not option trade them. As a hedge, sure they work but for options not so much. With the volatility over the last month or so, I have had trouble staying ahead of the fluctuations. The premiums are huge but the options are not priced for the movement for selling them.

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/trading-options-on-leveraged-etfs-11-26-2018
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/leveraged-etfs-not-consistent-performance-03-31-2016

#pietrades
With that said rolled
LABU 35 cc out 29 DTE for 1 and cost basis down to 33.80. My plan is to let call out if ITM and use it on something else.
TQQQ 60 CC rolled out to next week fr 0.98. Cb 57.52. Same as above.
LABU 35.5 cc rolled out 22 DTE and down to 35 for 0.90. Cb 33.49. Same
EXPE STO the 29 DTE 123 put for 2.05. Timing could not have been worse, market reversed 2 minute after that.

#fuzzy
XBI #fuzzy rolled 80/80 out to 22 DTE for 0.65 credit. Cb now 0.85. Still have until 2021 to keep making $ on this one.
XBI #fuzzy 80/83 rolled down to 80/80 and 29 DTE for 0.88 credit. Cb 3.99.
LNG 65/62.5/61/60 rolled this weeks 61 and 62.5 to 61 and 62 for 22 and 29 DTE for 0.56 and 0.88 credits. Cb now 5.34

Also don’t know if any of you saw the Tastytrade episodes, market measures in the summer, search back to around page 7-12 on strangles showing that managing strangles/trades at 21 DTE beat all other management strategies, period. Even better than 50% profits. There are about 3-4 sessions on that. I have an IBB experiment going on starting 43-45 DTE and managing at 21-22 DTE. Hard to tell how it is working with the volatility but I rolled IBB yesterday (just the put side). Will re-establish the strangle depending on where we end up this week or next. I also have an ITM #jadelizard experiment going on at opening at 21 DTE. Will let you know results once I have a few cycles.

Not trying to brag but my core account just hit an all time high so I must be doing something right. That wipes out the SVXY losses on 1 account. 2 others still have a way to go but this is my largest trading account so nice to know I covered those losses in 21 months. I originally thought it would take much longer. I suspect the other 2 accounts will take another 12 months on 1 and 24 on the other. Chipping away and will hope to never make that mistake again!!!!

Trade smart, stay nimble 🙂

hcgdavis 11:05 am on Wednesday, October 2, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

IBB strangle 102/107 for 10/25.

Closed the call side for 0.10. Rolled the 102 put down to 101.5 for 11/8 for 0.09 credit. If keep dropping with convert to #fuzzy now that the 2022 LEAPs are out.

EOG #fuzzy 85/75/75 rolled the 75 puts for this week out to next week for 0.41 credit. Cost basis 23.11 now.

My /ES 2690/2700 hedges only have about 2k profit, trying to sit on my hands for now but if looks like flat rest of day will roll down to take out some cash/profits.

XBI 80/80 #fuzzy rolled next week short puts out to 10/25 for 0.43 credit. Cb now 13.54. May roll the longs out to 2022 soon because they only cost $3-4 more for another year of weekly selling.

hcgdavis 11:05 am on Wednesday, September 11, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy,   

I have once again proven…

I have once again proven my inability to time the market. Yesterday converted a bunch of ATM and ITM XBI puts on a ladder to #fuzzy to avoid the increasing margin. Of course it was up 2+ points yesterday and another 1.5 today. Will manage as #fuzzy. I had already rolled several times and converted to #jadelizard but was still facing increasing margin requirement.

Cost basis 13.80 on 20 lots and already rolled next week 78 up to Oct 11 80 for 1.07 credit so 10 lots at 12.73 but have until Dec 2021 to manage. These are on the put side. LEAPS at 80 strike, shorts at 78, 79.5, and 80 now.

hcgdavis 1:21 pm on Thursday, September 5, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy, ,   

Rolls and adjusting

Last 2 weeks just adjusted several puts that went ITM from all the tweets.

Anyway, showing some profits this week so rolling and resetting.

/ES hedges closed for a $230 loss. Considering they cost $2398 they did their job. Kept me in trades and generated some cash on the first twitter drop. Reset to 106 DTE at the 2690/2700 back ratio, short 2:4 long for $3225. Hope I don’t need them but if so the lottery ticket will pay for future hedges. It was cheaper today with the VIX drop.

#pietrades XBI ladder at the 78/80/82 strikes. Rolled the 80 down to 79 and out 22 DTE for 1.19. Total credit 1.45 so cost 77.60 if assigned (include commisions). The other are 81.77 and 77.60.
JPM 106 puts closed for 0.15 or 1.19 profit per contract.
IBB STO 99 22 DTE put for 1.00.
LABU 3 lots at the 38 strikes will take assignment and convert to CC true #pietrade style. Spreads were too wide to roll since really close to ATM.

#fuzzy
EOG 85/74.5 and 75/75 puts rolled and cost basis now 24.19. Not the best candidate for LEAPs as the long options were expensive but saved some bacon.
GILD 65/65 will roll next week. CB 1.97. 2 more rolls should be 100% returns and free trade after that. Good until 2021. This was also a recovery from when it was closer to 80 so not a bad recovery.
GILD 65/65 rolled for credit, now free trade. Have 0.39 credit per contract. The other 2 batches in this account are 2.28 and 6.08 debits.
LNG 60/60 put spread CB 9.30. Will roll in 1-2 weeks.
XBI 80/80 calls at 2.13
XBI 80/85 at 0.77 credit per contract (free trade :)). Still have to 2021 to keep selling against it or just sit on the long calls if it starts going up again.
80/83 at 6.00. Cost basis was 11.63 and started 6/21 so 51.5% return since June 21 this year. I think #fuzzy LEAP spreads are the clear winners for smaller accounts. But certain names trade better than others. You want to buy as cheap a LEAP as you can find then sell expensive weekly options against it.
LNG 65/65/61.5/59.5 down to 8.66. Converted about 3 weeks ago when a bunch of puts went deep ITM. Excellent return here as well, initial cost was 11.12 so 33% in 3 weeks.

Trade smart!

hcgdavis 8:47 am on Thursday, August 15, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

Rolling just about everything. As…

Rolling just about everything. As I mentioned will not list all my ongoing trades, just list new ones going forward or ones that were listed before I had to drop out.

Tried a directional trade on /ES at the open, lost $700 when my stop was hit.

XBI 82.5 put rolled down to 80 for 9/6 for 0.26 credit. Cb 79.74 if assigned
EOG 85/83.5 #fuzzy rolled out to 9/13 for 0.45 credit. Cb 17.89
LABU 41 puts rolled down to 38 and 9/13 for 0.5, 0.45, 0.55 credits. cb ranges from 37.45-37.55
GILD 65/65 #fuzzy (some of these were on before March injury) rolled for 0.51 credit. Cost basis now 0.53, 3.20, 6.72, and 2.52. A few will be 100% returns and free trades in just a few more rolls.
TQQQ 62.5 rolled down to 60 for 9/13 for 0.67 credit. Cb 59.33

Hope everyone is doing well. I suspect there will be some more rolls before my trades break even or make money.

hcgdavis 10:30 am on Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy,   

SQ 8/23 5 puts closed…

SQ 8/23 65 puts closed for 3.95 or 2.72 loss per contract. I was going to convert to a #jadelizard but do not have time and also took the loss to avoid margin issues so I can stay in my other trades.

First losing trade on SQ this year.

Lots of other trades/puts are ITM but they still have good theta decay so will adjust those tomorrow.

Had a few extra minutes for lunch so:
LNG 67.5/67.5 #fuzzy rolled down to 60 for 1.55 debit and cb of 9.30.
EOG 87.5/87.5 #fuzzy expiring this week rolled down to 75/75 for next week for 3.16 debit. Cb now 18.34

hcgdavis 10:40 am on Friday, August 9, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

LNG

Converted short puts that are way ITM to #fuzzy to the 65/65/61 put strikes. Cost basis 9.39 and 8.96 and will sell weeklies until 2021.

Only had 2 contracts but this allowed me to increase to 7 contracts so a lot more weekly selling power/income.

We ran an experiment with XBI from June 21 on strictly weekly sales at the 80/85 strikes. 60% ROI since then or 520% annualized returns which is a lot more than we expected. Will keep it running and see how it works out longer term. I would expect less going forward but interesting that certain tickers trade LEAPs better than others.

hcgdavis 3:02 pm on Thursday, May 30, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy, , , , ,   

#optionsexpiration and actually these are…

#optionsexpiration and actually these are for next week, I rolled everything today.

Sorry I have not had time to post for anyone that was following trades. I will do a better job of at least a weekly update. That is how I trade. 95% of my trades are on Thurs. so a weekly update should keep things up to date.

Lots of trading last few weeks but equity curve flat. Need the trade tariff BS to end. Not good for business 😦
Most of my trades have been converted to #fuzzy or #lizardpies for recovery.

#hedge
/ES 62 DTE 2610/2605 back ratio has made a few $. It’s real purpose is to guard against a 2/6/18 or 8/24/15 event. Hope I don’t need it but would get a lot of cash then. However like an insurance policy I expect to lose on this.

#pietrades
LABU 45 cc at 44.25 cb and 40 cc at 37.13 and another batch of 40 cc at 38.42
TNA 60 cc at 59.69
TQQQ 63 cc at 62.15
AMAT 22 DTE 42 CC at 41.04. Assigned off a 43 put but had some credits as a cushion

#fuzzy
EOG 92.5/90 rolled down to 87.5/87.5 for a little debit. Cost basis 15.44 but because I had made some on the longs it put some cash back in the account.
GILD 65/65 rolled next week for 0.29 credit. Cost basis 5.91. Should not be too much longer for a free trade.
LNG 67.5/67.5 rolled for 0.34 credit. Cost basis 9.99 down from 15.57 at onset only 4 weeks ago.
XBI 80/80/85 rolled for 0.70 and cb 5.57
XBI 80/85 cb 12.50. This is a new batch we are doing live as an experiment. Avg. about 4% cost reduction per week. With monthlies it is larger about 6-8% but the theta decay is slower. 6% per month is 96% per year.
GILD 65/65 rolled for 0.28 for cb of 3.78. Freebie soon I hope 🙂 but this is also an experiment that will be taken all the way to expiration in 2021.
GILD 65/65 rolled for 0.28 at 6.45. Same as above but this is tracking the compounded addition of contracts as the rolls spit off cash.

#lizardpies
IBB 103.5 rolled down to 102/102/102.5 for total credit of 0.84. This has been recovered all the way from 107/109 strikes. Shows the flexibility of the #jadelizard as a tactic for adjustments.
IWM rolled down from 150 to 149/149/149.5. Reduced debit from 2.11 to 1.63 as I have recovered this from 155/157 strikes. I gave back a little credit to reduce margin.
SQ 63.5/63.5/64 rolled for total credit of 2.19. Looks like it found a bottom.
XBI 81.5 rolled down to 81/81/81.5 for total credit of 2.35.
LNG 64/64/64.5 rolled down from 66 for 1.68 total credit.

Once I can close a few of these, hopefully next week, will start some 21 DTE #lizardpies and create ladders. Some of them will be skewed to downside to just have steady income with every expiration and let them expire each week. Add new ones every Monday or Thurs.

Stay nimble, I suspect there is more volatility ahead but take advantage of the increased premiums 🙂

Here is an example of a 22 DTE #lizardpies I am looking at.

2017-12-01-TOS_CHARTS

7 points of downside protection. No risk to upside. Income over 3 weeks, can probably close early for 50% or more profit.

hcgdavis 10:43 am on Monday, May 13, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

Damage control

/ES hedges are working well, just wish I had more of them. May add some more but looks like have found a bottom at least for today. Not being political but the tweeter in chief really needs to shut up and realize tariffs are bad for business.

Sorry I have been quiet the last few weeks. After recovering and getting back to work I have barely had time to eat. We had to move 400 patients while I was out and it really messed up the schedule. Hope to be caught up in the next few weeks. Also have not found a good way to separate the service trades from my other trades as they are often similar.

Anyway, I have been adjusting jade lizards and have found them to be easier to roll than just a put or a call. I was able to roll IBB down on Thurs. from 107.5 to 103.5 for a 0.01 debit. 4 points of extra downside for 1 penny, I will take it. Because I am selling the straddle the credit can often offset the drop.

So anyway here are my current positions. All will need adjusting this week. If we keep falling will convert some to LEAPs/ #fuzzy.

90% of these expire this week.
/es back ratio hedge, 79 DTE 2610 short 1 and long 2 2605 for 21.50 or $1075 for every 3 contracts. Up nicely 🙂 and I may roll down to take out some cash.
GILD 65/65 at cost basis of 6.79, 4.68, and 7.35. Keep working to zero cost basis.
IBB 103.5/103.5/104 jade lizard rolled down Thurs from 107.5 for 1 cent debit. CB 103.51. Will roll or convert
iWM 155.5 converted to 155.5/155/5/156 jade lizard for 0.30 credit. CB 154.18 will need roll
LNG 67.5 put was converted to #fuzzy for cost basis of 10.33
SQ 73.5/73.5/74 cb 1.27. Needs rolling.
XBI 84/84/84.5 jade lizard for 1.49 credit. Cb 82.51
LABU 50 cc for cb 46
QQQ 185/188 for 3.26
XBI 80/85 for 7.57 and 13.81
LNG 65.5/65.5/66 for 1.44 credit this morning
TNA 64 cc for 61.97
TQQQ 66 cc for 63.94
AMAT 43 puts for 1.03 cb 41.97

Obviously most of these will need rolling or adjusting toward the end of the week. We keep falling I will convert most to LEAPs on the put side.

Cheer 🙂

mortlightman 11:00 am on Thursday, May 2, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

INTC

BTO #Fuzzy
May 17 51 Call STO 51/50 BuPS .62

hcgdavis 4:40 pm on Thursday, April 18, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy, ,   

Back at work so have…

Back at work so have not had time to update. Managed to get a few trades in. This is update of current positions.

#pietrades
Tues. STO IBB 107.5 5/3 put for 1 right before the medicare for all gave all the biotechs and insurers a haircut. Will be adjusting this for a few weeks.
IWM STO the 5/10 152 put for 1.21 today. May convert to #lizardpies depending on market moves
LNG 67.5 put was rolled down last week for cost basis of 66.8. Need to adjust and exp. 5/3.
AMAT 43.5 CC expires next week. cb 42.55
ERX 23 cc expires today/assigned and cb 21.81
LNG batch 2 same as above but cb 67.15. Had a better fill.
TNA expiring today 65 put rolled to next week 64 for 0.48 credit. Cb 63.52 if assigned but will manage
TQQQ 53.5 cc expires next week. 56.75 cb. I tried to roll it but the MM are being greedy bloodsuckers so will take the minor loss and use the money on something else.
AMAT 41.5 put expiring today rolled to 42.5 next week for 0.42 credit. Cb 42.08.

#lizardpies
EXPE 113/130/131 for 5/10 credit now 3.84. Hope to close next week.
SQ 74/78/78.5 adjusted Tues for additional credit. 72.81 cost basis

#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 cb down to 7.34
GILD batch 2 65/65 cb at 5.23
XBI 80/80/85 rolled today. Cb 8.96

I am trying a 21 DTE OTM experiment as I noticed while I was off OTM options usually crushed by over half from 21 DTE down to 14 DTE if they stayed OTM. Percentage wise much better than 45 DTE and really not to much closer to the money on strikes. Maybe 1-3. Will keep posted but I am hoping there will be a lot less adjusting. Adjustments just decrease profits. Will keep you posted.

Hoppy Easter everyone 🙂

mortlightman 11:18 am on Friday, April 12, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy,   

MSFT

#fuzzy
Apr 18 120/120/119 C/P/P $1.00
EWZ #supercharger
41/34 Apr 18 Puts $.67
RH #supercharger
117/119 Apr 18 Calls $1.05
FB #supercharger
177.5/180.0 Apr 18 Calls $1.36

Looking for 30-50% Profits on these!!

mortlightman 12:44 pm on Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

BBBY

BTO #Fuzzy Apr 18 19.5C-19.5P+19.0P $1.16

Max loss 1.66 Profit unlimited, chart looks good

hcgdavis 10:58 am on Tuesday, April 9, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

Tradestation issues

Obviously they do not understand options. Received an immediate margin call notice on my QQQ spread I opened yesterday. Telling me I need $2000 per spread even though I was long the 175 QQQ 2020 and short next Friday 184.5 calls. No risk since my long is a lower strike than the short and I still have a positive cash balance.

Anyway, apparently this changed 2 years ago from what the margin dept. told me. Stick with TOS or the other platforms that understand how to calculate option risk. Had not done spreads in this account in a while so FYI!!

With that said, closed the QQQ #fuzzy for basically the cost of commissions, out $24. Now I can’t trade until tomorrow because they reset cash values at midnight.

The more I try other platforms the more I realize how good TOS is :).

hcgdavis 7:34 am on Monday, April 8, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy,   

Old school trade

#fuzzy
QQQ Jan 2020 175/184.5 4/18 for 16.72 debit. Plan is to roll/adjust/close depending on where it is next week.

#pietrades
LNG STO the 4/12 67.5 put for 0.80. Cost basis 66.7 if assigned.

hcgdavis 7:53 am on Saturday, April 6, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy, , , ,   

#optionsexpiration #pietrades EOG batch 2…

#optionsexpiration

#pietrades
EOG batch 2 assigned at 89 at a cost basis of 92.63. This is a small account and I plan to take it to spreads to juice returns so just wanted to take the loss so I can redeploy capital on Monday.
EOG batch 1 I rolled up to the 97 cc for next week at 6.75 and after selling the 97 for 1.35 cost basis 96.14. I never figured out why it spiked so much yesterday?
FAS 57 cc assigned at cb of 54.20.
ERX 23 cc rolled 2 weeks for 0.5 credit. Cb 21.81
LNG 4/12 67 put sold for 0.54 yesterday.

#lizardpies
EXPE rolled on 4/3 to 37 DTE 113/130/131 for additional credit. Total credit now 3.84 per contract
EXAS STO the 89 put for 4/12 for 1.01, then converted to #jadelizard yesterday 89/89/90 for another 0.6 credit.
SMH closed 4/3 for 0.45 credit per contract
JPM closed 4/4 for 1.08 credit per contract
SQ rolled out to 4/12 for 1.26 credit at 76/76/76.5 strikes. cb 74.74 if assigned.
TNA 60 rolled to 4/12 62.5/62.5/63 for 1.1 credit.

#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 cb at 6.39
GILD 65/65 rolled out 37 DTE yesterday for 1.07 credit. Cb now 7.34

1 more week of surgical recovery then back to work but trading full time the last few weeks has been more than I would make at work so good to know for retirement. However, I am really looking forward to some solid food!

mortlightman 8:13 am on Sunday, March 31, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy,   

#markettide Are you guys still…

#markettide
Are you guys still recommending #markettide? What is our cost? Has any on you used it for futures trades? How about using it for #Fuzzy’s?

hcgdavis 11:20 am on Friday, March 29, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy, , , ,   

Expiration but mostly rolls, closing and managing.

#pietrades
EOG 90.5 cc for 4/12 cost basis 90.74. Depending on where it is trading will let assign at slight loss or roll.
EOG 89 cc 4/5 cost basis 92.63. Will roll this one.
ERX 23 cc for 4/5 cost basis 22.31. Will let assign or roll
TQQQ 54.5 cc for 3 weeks cost basis 56.39. Will roll
TQQQ 55 cc for today at 53.79 cost basis. Will assign today.
TQQQ 53.5 cc for 3 weeks cb 56.75. Will roll
FAS 57 cc for 4/5 cost basis 54.20. Will let assign.

#lizardpies
XBI 4/5 86/86/86.5 closed today for 0.52 profit per contract. Could only make .69 above 86 so decent profit for 2 day trade. I had skewed this one to the downside but it moved up today.
EXPE 4/26 115/131/132 for 2.31 credit. Looking good now, hope to close for 50% or better profit in 2 weeks. Right now at 25%.
SMH 4/26 100.5/110/111 for 1.38 credit. Same as above.
SQ 4/5 75.5/75.5/74.03 for 1.75 credit. Same but will most likely roll it in pieces.
JPM STO today the 4/5 101/101/102 for 1.81 credit. Looks like it found a bottom.
TNA 4/5 60/61/61.5 rolled this morning from last week. Credit now 3.06.

#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 for 2 weeks at 8.41 cost basis.
GILD 65/65 for 3 weeks 6.39 cb
XBI 80/80/91.5 cb 11.74. 2 more weeks on the short calls.

Percentage return wise, the #jadelizard trades seem to work the best and also easier to roll because of the initial higher credit. Live study ongoing and will keep you posted. I am also skewing them depending on which way I think it is moving and that seems to help the winning percentage. Using the #markettide to time entries.

Have a good weekend!

2 more weeks in the jaw wires then back to work for me 🙂 although I am enjoying the extra trading.

mortlightman 10:33 am on Tuesday, March 26, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

EWZ

BTO #fuzzy 41/41/40 C/P/P Apr 18 $1.34

hcgdavis 1:12 pm on Thursday, March 21, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy, , ,   

#optionsexpiration and position updates. I…

#optionsexpiration and position updates.

I was hoping for a reversal today, but alas I was never able to get short. But the run has brought 2 accounts very close to all time highs and 1 of them had some SVXY crap in them so that is a good thing.

#pietrades
EOG 90.5 cc at cost basis of 91.79. Assigned off 96 put 2 weeks ago. Closes next week, nit sure if I will roll or let call out. I could use the money elsewhere.
EOG second batch 89 call at 92.63. Same idea.
TRIP 52.5 cc rolled down to 8 DTE 52 for 51.78. I will let assign if ITM
ERX 8 DTE 23 cc at 22.31. Will assign if ITM
TQQQ 54.5 CC at 56.39 cost basis. A pullback would be helpful
FAS 57 cc at 54.20. Will let assign next week.
TQQQ 53.5 cc at 56.75
TQQQ 55 cc at 53.79

#lizardpies
EXPE 36 DTE 115/131/132 at 2.31 credit
SMH 36 DTE 100.5/110/111 for 1.38 credit

#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 at 8.41
XBI 80/80/91.5 at 11.74
GILD 67.5/67.5 rolled down 22 DTE for 0.28 debit so now cost basis is 6.39.

Ok, just about finished with taxes which is my yearly review of every trade I did the previous year.
SVXY was a complete debacle.
#fuzzy held up the best during the correction but I am still most consistent with #pietrades. However, looks like the #lizardpies may actually be better, especially when selling the ATM straddle. That is the most amount of income you can collect. Then the long call option prevents losses to the upside. I will be doing more of these on a weekly basis.

In fact, I have a lot of time at the moment and found some Tasty trade research (recent) that confirms it. Less volatile returns than even strangles.

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/options-workshop/episodes/research-on-the-big-lizard-strategy-01-15-2019

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/options-workshop/episodes/using-big-lizard-trades-in-a-portfolio-01-22-2019

If you are in a hurry the slides will sum it up. Almost stayed flat during the 2008-2009 market, certainly beat every other tactic.

Moved some money so hopefully some directional opportunities tomorrow.

🙂

mortlightman 11:00 am on Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

AMD

BTO Mar 29 24 Call STO 24Put BTO 23 Put $.86 #fuzzy

AMD stock spikes after Google confirms partnership for new video game streaming service

hcgdavis 12:29 pm on Monday, March 18, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy,   

Hello bistro, my fun ski…

Hello bistro, my fun ski day March 7 turned into a trip to UMD shock trauma so have been out of work and trading for a few weeks. However, I am home another 4 weeks and plan to trade as actively as I can, kind of a test run for full time trading when I retire someday many years from now.

Won’t bore or gross you out with the details, but a collision with another skier (they are ok from what I have heard) sent me face down into the snow from a jump in the terrain park at the end of the day. It subsequently broke my nose (7th time) and 6 other bones in my face. Fortunately my brain and spinal cord are fine and the helmet did its job. But it took a 4 hour surgery and 4 titanium plates in my palate and sinuses to put me back together.

Anyway, my jaw is wired shut for 4 more weeks so I can’t talk which is required for my job. So I am home recovering and will be trading while I burn through my vacation time, fortunately had enough to cover it.

With that said, I needed a bunch of cash so STO EXPE 43 DTE on last Thurs. 115 put for 2.10 in a larger account. My goal is to close it for 50% profit in 3-4 weeks. Tastytrade style.

One of my goals going forward with trading is to target certain trades for certain requirements. With that said, #pietrades will still be the bread and butter, but I occasionally will sell something farther out and OTM mostly to pull the cash out of the account and use it for certain expenses.

Other trades I have on, sorry some of the dates are hazy. I traded some prior to surgery but my vision was fuzzy and my judgement was slightly impaired. Fortunately does not look like I did anything stupid.
Assigned 300 shares EOG over the weekend at the 96 put but cost basis 93.03. STO 3 march 29 90.5 calls at 1.24 this morning. Will manage aggressively. Cb 91.79.
GILD rolled the 70/70 #fuzzy down to 65/65 for debit but cost basis 8.41.
TRIP 52.5 CC for this week cost basis 52.33.
ERX 21.5 cc should assign this friday at cost basis of 20.28.
TQQQ i rolled both batches to 54.5 CC with cost basis of 56.39 and batch 2 53.5 cc for 56.75 and somehow have a third batch now at the 55 cc for 53.79 cost basis.
XBI #fuzzy 80/80 was assigned early on half. Closed and rolled 1/2 the short side up to 91.5.
FAS 57 cc cost basis is 54.20 and will let assign in 2 weeks.
GILD 67.5/67.5 #fuzzy rolled down for credit. Cost basis 6.11.
EOG batch 2 88.5 cc at 92.83 cost basis.

Hope everyone is doing well 🙂

Learned a few life lessons from this but not sure if it will help trading, will see.

matt0311 8:21 am on Thursday, March 7, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

#fuzzy I had been doing…

#fuzzy I had been doing well with KR, I actually closed my existing ones just beginning of the week as i had a decent profit in them (I guess luck was part of it…). Now, after that steep drop, i re-entered at 23/25/25 exp Jan 2021. Paid 3$ I BTO 3 contracts to allow me to sell only 2 calls against it, limiting my overall risk in case the stock price would over run my short calls.

hcgdavis 10:02 am on Thursday, February 28, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy, ,   

Updates

#pietrades
EOG batch 1 96.5 put rolled out next week to 96 for 0.16 credit. Cb 93.63 if assigned.
EOG batch 2 96.5 rolled out a week for 0.43 credit. CB 93.91 if assigned.
LNG 65.5 rolled out next week to 65 for 0.12 credit . Cb 63.59 if assigned.
TRIP 54 CC. Was assigned early Tues night so sold the 54 cc for next week for 0.96. Cb 53.03 and will let assign if ITM.
XBI 83/86/87 #lizardpies closed for 0.97. Total credit 3.22 over 3-4 weeks
AXLN 125/131/13 #lizardpies closed for 1. Total profit 1.37 over 3 weeks. It took off to the upside.
QQQ 171.5 sold for 0.75.
SQ 75.5 put STO for 0.83 credit for 3/8.
EXAS 3/15 87.5 put sold for 1.15
ERX 22 cc rolled next week for 0.3 credit. Cb 21.23
TQQQ 54 cc at 56.79, need to stay ahead of the rolls.
FAS 57 cc rolled for 0.40 cb now 54.77.
TQQQ 52 cc at 57 cost basis. Will be rolling.

#fuzzy
GILD 70/70 rolled for 0.24 cb now 7.48.
GILD 67.5/69 cb 6.51
LNG 50/60 rolled for 0.44 credit. Cb 12.49
XBI 80/80 rolled for 0.27. Cb 12.29.

Busy few weeks. Sun is out, headed outside.

hcgdavis 4:35 pm on Saturday, February 23, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy, , ,   

Updates

#markettide Spoke with Bryan this morning. They are rolling out version 3 either this week or next. He told me it maxes out TOS so if you have a slower computer like my laptop you may be better off staying with version 2. However version 3 is supposed to have scanning and my desk top has the power to handle it. He also said thanks to everyone at the Bistro that picked it up. The scanning should give live time signals!

#pietrades
ALXN Rolled 2/22 #lizardpies to 125/129/130 for 1.42 credit. cb 123.88 if assigned
EOG 98.5 put rolled down to 96.5 for 3/1 for 0.50 credit, batch 1. Second batch went through at 0.15 (tradestation issues). Cb 94.28 if assigned. Earnings next week.
LNG 65.5 put rolled earlier in week. Cb 64.21 if assigned
TRIP 57 put rolled out to 3/1 for 0.35 credit. 53.99 if assigned. If still ITM this week will roll it out 43 DTE and down.
XBI #lizardpies rolled out to 3/1 and adjusted to 83/86/87 for 0.30 credit. Cb 82.40 if assigned.
ERX 22 cc 3/1 for 21.53 debit and cost basis.
TQQQ 54 cc in 3 weeks at 56.79. Trying to stay ahead of the rolls until break even then will let it assign and start over.
TQQQ 52 CC at 57.00. Same
FAS 56.6 cc rolled up to 57 3/1 for 0.40 credit. Cb 54.77.
EOG batch 2 rolled out to 3/1 for 0.15 cb 94.34 if assigned.

#fuzzy
GILD 70/70 rolled out 43 DTE for 0.24 credit. cb 7.48.
XBI 80/80 cb 12.56
LNG 50/60 cb 12.93
GILD batch 2 67.5/69 rolled out 43 DTE for 0.45 credit. Cb 6.51.

Tradestation 10 has some huge memory requirements, that was my issue with it not working. I spent 2 hours with Tech sorting out the issues. Bottom line, you need a 10gb memory chip to run version 10. If you don’t have that stay with version 9.5 and they will continue to support it. Option station pro requires less power on that version as well. However, you have to uninstall all previous version and re-install it for the 9.5 version to work correctly. Ghost files from the other version interferes.

I am trying to figure out a way to separate my accounts from the service accounts. May take me a little while to figure out an easy template. In the meantime will probably only have time to post on the weekends. Once I can easily separate them should be able to update on a more regular basis.

Also will be doing more buy writes for #pietrades depending on directional signals. Better returns than just selling puts if I have a upward bias. The other option is more ATM or ITM puts if I think it is headed higher.

Hope everyone is doing well and staying dry or at least having fun with some snow:)
Just wet here.

mortlightman 6:39 am on Friday, February 15, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

SPY

Closed #Fuzzy $2.35 BTO yesterday .90

1 DTE #fuzzy
274/274/273.5 $.90

mortlightman 12:31 pm on Thursday, February 14, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

SPY

1 DTE #fuzzy
274/274/273.5 $.90

hcgdavis 12:00 pm on Thursday, February 14, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy, , ,   

#optionsexpiration a day early. Some…

#optionsexpiration a day early.

Some of these trades are from yesterday, have been to0 busy at work to post.

#pietrades #lizardpies
ALXN 120/129/130 for 2/22 for 1.25 credit yesterday off an 0.85 roll the previous week.
EOG 98.5 put for 96.75 cost basis off a roll
LNG 65 puts for 2/22 STO yesterday for 0.56 credit
TRIP 57 puts for 2/22 for 0.66
XBI 84/85/86 total credit now 4.19. Have been rolling 3 weeks.
TQQQ 51 CC rolled out 43 DTE to 54 CC for 0.25. Cb now 56.79
TQQQ 51 cc rolled out 43 DTE to 52 for 0.10 for cost basis of 57.00
FAS 1 DTE 56.5 cc rolled out 8 DTE for 0.47 credit. Cost basis 54.17
EOG batch 2 98.5 8 DTE cost basis 97.1

#fuzzy
GILD 70/70 cost to 7.72
XBI 80/80 rolled for 0.56 credit. Cb 12.56
LNG 50/60 rolled for 0.33. CB 12.93
GILD 67.5/69 rolled for 0.26 cb 6.93.

Finally some consistent results last 4 weeks. Of course the market screaming higher does not hurt. But mostly I was able to unwind a bunch of accumulated rolls and finally pull some cash out of the market again.

Since Jan 1 have been officially working with the advisory service. Obviously I cannot post those trades but will keep posting other trades I find and really like how many of us here are willing to experiment with different tactics to see what really works the best with real money in real time! This is a great trading group and I will stay involved, thanks to many of you I survived the 20% correction which now seems to be over and even came out ahead. This down turn was WAY better than the SVXY debacle last Feb. 6 2018, not that anyone here needed reminding 🙂

One thing is certain, I will be keeping a general market hedge on now all the time. May only need it once or twice a year but then it is a lottery ticket. To keep it from costing too much will probably use a back ratio or risk twist trade. Will set it up to cover a 10% correction. Anything beyond that it becomes a mega lottery ticket.

Cheers, Chris

hcgdavis 12:47 pm on Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

#fuzzy GILD 70/70 10 DTE…

#fuzzy
GILD 70/70 10 DTE rolled out to 31 DTE for 0.28 credit. Cost basis down to 7.72. Hoping to have it to zero by the summer.

hcgdavis 4:45 pm on Friday, February 8, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

#fuzzy EXPE, after the huge…

#fuzzy

EXPE, after the huge gap up after hours, 9 points yesterday it was up only 3 around lunch time today. My short 126 puts that were 4.75 and short 120 puts were at 1.75 both crushed to pennies. My leaps maintained their values. After several months of adjusting out for 16.23 and 13.97 credits. Cost basis was 9.43.

Some days lucky is better than good and I will take it. This was a huge winner after being flat since Oct.

Now I have a bunch of cash and will look for trades over the weekend for Monday.

hcgdavis 9:16 am on Thursday, February 7, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy, ,   

Expirations, rolls, etc.

#fuzzy
EXPE have the 120/120 and 125/126 expiring tomorrow. Cost basis 9.43. It is really holding onto the time value, I have over 5k of theta decay on this position alone. Should crush with earnings tonight and either way it swings this trade is up huge and will close all of it tomorrow then reset. One of my biggest winning trades so far, especially from a recovery standpoint. Down a lot earlier this year, up 17k+ now 🙂
GILD 70/70 adjusted earlier this week. Cb 8.00, I miscalculated below.
XBI 80/80 rolled out to next week for 0.42 credit. Cb 13.13
LNG 50/60 cb 13.26, adjusts next week
GILD 67.5/69 rolled another week for 0.41 credit. cb 7.19
Some of these trades should be scratched in another 2-3 months, I hope, then have pure income.

#pietrades and #lizardpies
SQ 68 put rolled up to next week 70 for 1.11 credit. Cb 68.89 if assigned but will be out before earnings.
EOG 98.5 rolled out 15 DTE for 0.67 and 0.3 credits. Cb 96.78 and 97.1 Tradestation having issues with option station pro. However, if you call them they will not charge you for the broker assisted trade.
TQQQ 51 cc cb 57.04. Will roll aggressively
TQQQ 51 cc cb 57.10 same
FAS 56 cc rolled out 1 week and up to 56.5 for 0.13 credit. cb 54.64

Hope everyone has a good expiration, volatility back today I assume because of the idiots in DC comments on the trade wars.

hcgdavis 11:05 am on Wednesday, February 6, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

#fuzzy MU STC the 35/35…

#fuzzy
MU STC the 35/35 for 7.38 credit. Total loss of 6.92 but I am now out of my biggest losers. It could have been much worse, it was down 25+ points at one point.

Everything left is solidly in the green EXPE, GILD, XBI.

Also today is the anniversary of the SVXY implosion and my biggest trading losses ever. While I still have a long way to go to break even on cost basis and even further to hit all time highs, the tactics we have been developing since then have been account savers for fixing bad trades. Thanks everyone for the input and by all of us trying new techniques I think we are all able to handle volatility better and even profit more from it. Keep up the good work!

At least 2 accounts are about to hit all time highs, 4 to go.

I have a bunch of cash now and will be adding some trades tomorrow.

hcgdavis 6:21 pm on Tuesday, February 5, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

#fuzzy GILD 70/70 expires this…

#fuzzy

GILD 70/70 expires this week rolled out 2 weeks for 0.48 credit. Cb now 8.95.

hcgdavis 9:07 am on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy,   

#pietrades STO EOG Feb 8…

#pietrades

STO EOG Feb 8 98.5 put for 1.10. Cb 97.4 if assigned.
Another batch of 3 in another account for 1.05 or 97.45 if assigned.

#fuzzy
WDC so far ITM now that can’t roll. Closed the 40/40 for 6.45 credit resulting in 11.26 loss per contract. However, this is much better than if I had held the stock, would have been a 74 point loss as I originially had sold the 100 and 98 puts before Oct.

I will take the cash and use it for a better trade 🙂

hcgdavis 10:29 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy, , ,   

#optionsexpiration, adjutements, rolls, new trades…

#optionsexpiration, adjustments, rolls, new trades

#lizardpies
XBI 78/82/8.25 should expire tomorrow for 1.26 profit per contract
AMAT BTC the 39 puts for 0.29 that expire tomorrow. Sold for 0.71 last week. Tradestation so can’t trade until tomorrow. I think I will replace it with a #pietrades 108 CC on IBB currently for around 106.89. Obviously that will be different tomorrow.
FAS STO 56 cc for 54.77 expires in 8 DTE
TQQQ batch 1 50 cc rolled out 22 DTE to 51 CC for 0.26 credit. Cb now 57.04 and will have to stay ahead of the rolls.
TQQQ batch 2 50 cc rolled out 36 dTE 51 cc for 0.55 credit. Cb 57.10 and same as above.

#fuzzy
LNG 50/60 8 DTE rolled out to 22 DTE for 0.3 credit. Cb now 13.26
All the others were updated and expire next 1-2 weeks.

Back to even from the start of the October volatility. Now keep working on getting back to even from SVXY losses. Expect at least another 12-24 months unless everything goes perfectly, hahahaha, yeah that would happen 🙂

Something I noticed about #fuzzy over the last 3-4 months. As long as you keep rolling and generating cash they seem to withstand market volatility better than many other trades. In a few small accounts, I generated almost 50% of the value of the account in cash over that time even though the paper value was steadily declining. Have to agree with @fuzzballl, they are flexible. However, going forward I think I will take profit and then reset as we discussed earlier. I think it would make management easier and also lock in profits and also allow you to move the strikes more effectively as the market moves.

mortlightman 9:26 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

UPS

#fuzzy Feb 6 -160/159Put +160 Call $1.60

hcgdavis 11:03 am on Wednesday, January 30, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy, , ,   

#rolling, adjustments, and new trades…

#rolling, adjustments, and new trades

#fuzzy
MU rolled the 35/35 out 16 DTE for 0.5 credit. Cb now 14.30
WDC 40/40 rolled out 9 DTE for 0.33 credit. Cb now 17.71

I was going to close these at a loss but figure if I can get at least 0.25 per roll will keep rolling to generate cash and lower cost basis. 10 contracts each so decent income.

#pietrades
SQ STO the 9 DTE Feb 8-9 68 put for 1.53. Decided not to jade lizard until after FOMC and see what the market does. If we gap up I will sell the CCS once it has a top or range.

FOMC must have just released up 10 more on /ES. I may #jadelizard SQ into the close if it slows down to the upside.

After 4-5 months of crap trading, finally making some income/cash and money again but I still have a long way to go to recover the SVXY fiasco.

hcgdavis 8:49 am on Friday, January 25, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy, ,   

#fuzzy WDC 40/40 rolled out…

#fuzzy
WDC 40/40 rolled out 7 DTE for 0.45 credit. cb now 18.04.

#pietrades
AMAT 7 DTE 39 puts sold for 0.71 credit. Cb 38.29 if assigned. Smaller account so only 3 contracts.

Hoping the bottom on the chip sector holds but will roll or take assignment if not, true PIE style.

Holding on further #spycraft at the moment until we figure out the best defense, market is moving more than the options are priced for.

hcgdavis 9:43 am on Thursday, January 24, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy, , ,   

Clearing the decks/resetting several accounts

Obviously what I have been doing the last 4 months has not been working. Hit all time low balance again Jan. 4 this year. So I am going back to what works and has been proven through several market cycles and rebuilding the equity curve. At least last month have recovered and higher than the Feb. 6, 2018 SVXY losses and lowest balance from then.

So I am clearing out losing trades, closing a bunch of #fuzzy, some at profit, some at loss, and re-deploying capital. My trading will mostly consist of #pietrades, #lizardpies, #spycraft and the occasional directional play/scalp and a few #fuzzy

Some closings today, but have 2 more weeks to clear out the primary account.

#fuzzy
EOG 110/110 closed for 5.16 loss per contract. It is so far ITM can’t get decent premiums anymore. My intial loss was 17 so this tactic works.
EXPE closed the back ratio credit spreads, left with 120/120 and 125/126. This is sitting on a profit and will close it over the next 2 weeks as the shorts expire. Cb 9.43 and right now can close for min. 11.45. another week of decay that will be better. Lost $600 on the credit spreads after butterflying to control risk (could have been 2000).
MU 35/35 now ITM Cb 14.80 and will roll next week.
WDC 40/40 cb 18.49 and waiting for the short to implode after earnings today.
XBI 80/80 cb 13.97
LNG 50/60 rolled 15 DTE for 0.5 credit for 13.56 cb.
GILD 67.5/69 rolled 15 DTE for 1.3 credit. Cb 7.60

#pietrades and #lizardpies
XBI 78 put 82/82.5c 8 DTE for 1.26 credit
TQQQ 50 CC rolled out 15 DTE for 0.45 credit. CB 57.56 so will manage aggressively
TQQQ 50 cc lot 2 cb 57.30 same
LNG STO the 8 DTE 63 put for 0.92. CB 62.08 if assigned. LNG is my best performer for the year so far 🙂

#spycraft
Batch 1 closed for a $214 loss after the back ratio adjustment did not work. SPY reversed.
Batch 2 closed for a $344 profit, but only because tradestation messed up and sold 20 contracts of the put side instead of 10 so even with the back ratio that did not work I made a few $. Now I am on hold in this account until tomorrow. Tradestation does not give you credit for closed trades until after midnight so I only have $614 buying power in this account until tomorrow morning. Another reason I prefer TOS over TS.

What I have learned most recently.
#fuzzy works well but I think the real value of them is to close them once you have a profit. The EOG trade would have worked if I had just closed it early. If you still like the trade, reset the strike prices. I will use these as shorter term trades out 1 week or a month, take my profit and reset. Commissions are cheap enough to do that most of the time. A 6 % return in one month and then resetting is 96% annualized. Instead of trying to take the cost basis to zero will just take profit and reset. Will probably just use a 90 day option for the long side.

#spycraft
I think the best adjustment when the short strike is challenged is to butterfly it. You can set a defined p/l by broken winging it and skewing it if you have a bias. Just to stop losing can simply butterfly it. Seems to be the cheapest way to do it and least affected if it reverses. Yes you may lock in a loss, but much better than a full loss on the credit spread.

#pietrades and #lizardpies
Upside directional bias set it up as a synthetic long.
No directional bias, set up as a straddle jade lizard.
Downside directional bias set it up as a strangle jade lizard.
But I think setting it up as a jade lizard initially gives more flexibility in managing because of the extra credit. I will be doing A LOT more of these.
Can also leg in and out depending on how the stock moves.

Pouring here so going to work out in my garage gym. First bike race is in 8 weeks so need to lose 10 pounds and make friends with my fast again 🙂

Hope everyone has a good expiration!

hcgdavis 1:08 pm on Tuesday, January 22, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy,   

For some reason the reply…

For some reason the reply button is not working for me at the moment.
Adding to @jeffcp66 and @kathycon discussion below on SPX/SPY/ES credit spreads below, the idea is to get a directional kick if the short strike is violated. Sometimes it works and you get a good profit spike. From what I did with #spycraft the other day, not looking so good today but I did not have time to adjust. Hoping for a snap back rally tomorrow.

The way I see it there are 3-5 adjustments that may work most of the time, none are going to work all the time.
1. delta neutral buy back half of your short strikes. Works great if it keeps moving, not so much if it reverses like it has for me.
2. delta neutral, buy some options between your strikes. Same as above but probably a little cheaper and the same problems as above.
3. just closing it down at a certain loss level or closing it early. You could also roll out and up/down but may be hard to get credits if it has already moved that much.
4. butterfly, either BW or regular. This is probably the cheapest and can be skewed but then will have loss on one side, but fixed gain or loss on the other. At least you stop the bleeding at that point and lock in your gain/loss.
5. convert the short side to a calendar or diagonal like a #fuzzy and then manage from there but then you may be in a position a lot longer than you want.

Final decision up to you but I am going to keep experimenting with all 5 options to see if there is one that always works the best. Like @kathycon I think the butterfly will be the most efficient. Once on you can leave it alone and let it expire. Everything would cancel out.

hcgdavis 10:45 am on Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy   

EOG

Closed out the inverted fly at 97/98/99 that had been converted from a violated credit spread for 0.11 debit. After all said and done made $464 on 10 contracts.

Still have the 110 #fuzzy to manage.

hcgdavis 8:14 am on Monday, January 14, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy,   

#spycraft Just opened Feb 1…

#spycraft

Just opened Feb 1 expiration IC at the 245/242 puts for 0.25 credit and the 166/269 calls for 0.39 credit. Could probably get about the same now.

#fuzzy

WDC rolled the 4 DTE 70/70 out a week for 0.62 credit. Cb now 18.49.

The #spycraft trades will be managed as per the discussion last week. Hard adjustment points as soon as the short strike is breached or if in expiration week closed for a small loss or rolled. As long as we have 2 or more weeks left to expiration will back ratio.

hcgdavis 8:38 am on Thursday, January 10, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy, , ,   

Finally unraveling some trade adjustments…

Finally unraveling some trade adjustments over the last 14 weeks and bringing in some profits again. Have been flat for 3 months but a very nice week today 🙂

#fuzzy
EOG 110/110 with the back ratio ccs wrapped around it from the other day. With the slight pull back this morning I was able to sell 5 99 calls for 15 DTE for 1.97. What this did was lock in a no loss trade on the credit spread. Original trade was the 97/98 ccs. Back ratioed the other day. With todays trade I locked in a gain of $25 total if it closes at 98.02. Anywhere above 99 or below 97 that expands to $505. Basically inverted a butterfly but because of the gains from the back ratio now have that part of the trade risk free.
After the original post, rolled the 22 DTE 110 put out to 43 DTE for 0.45 credit. Cb now 13.96.
EXPE 120/120 125/126, 117/118 ccs and 118/120 ccs at cost basis of 9.43. Managing same as EOG. Any of the short strikes breached will delta neutral hedge (usually buy back half of the shorts).
GILD 70/70 cb 8.48. Will roll in 2-3 weeks.
MU 35/35 cb 14.80 and will roll 1-2 weeks
WDC 40/40 cb 19.11. Roll next week. This will be the longest to recover. Good thing I have a lot of time.
XBI 80/80 at 13.97 rolls in 2 weeks.
LNG 50/60 1 DTE rolled out 15 DTE for 0.48 credit. Cb 14.06
GILD 67.5/69 cb 8.90 and rolls in 2 weeks

#pietrades
LNG batch 1 61 CC should be assigned tomorrow at 57.70 cb
LNG batch 2 61 cc should be assigned at 58.53 cb.

#lizardpies
SQ should expire for full profit tomorrow. 667.50 profit on 3 contracts in 2 weeks. Finally an easy winner chicken dinner.

#spycraft
22 DTE 242.5/240.5 pcs for 0.20 credit. Small account so only 5 contracts. However, once batch 1 LNG expires this is one of the accounts I will re-dedicate to #spycraft with the mechanical management rules. Trying to double the 2 accounts in a year. Easy to keep track of since the new year.

I will be legging into an out of a lot of trades now. Anytime I can lock in a gain will do it. No guessing about what to do when short strikes are violated, they will be delta neutral hedged or shut down at a minimal loss, no questions asked. After looking at 4 years of #spycraft trades, controlling losses was the number 1 way to make this tactic profitable. The other way appears to be applying some timing by legging in and out of sides.

hcgdavis 11:07 am on Wednesday, January 9, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy,   

Being mechanical and following my own rules.

EOG 97/98 16 DTE credit spread was breached on the short side this morning. I delta neutral hedged it by buying back 5 of the 10 contracts at the 97 strike . Actually could have done 3 but was in a hurry. Price was 3.1 after I had sold them for 1.48 last week. The math is complicated because I now have a 5 short: 10 long ratio against a put #fuzzy but looks like anything above 99.04 and I break even or make money. If we drop I can always sell 5 again to take the ratio back to 1:1. Since doing that I am up $1635 on the credit spread part this morning.

I will be doing this with any breached credit spread going forward based on the TT research that showed violated credit spreads rarely return to the original range. As long as there is more than a week left to expiration. If inside that would roll first out to 21 DTE or so and then back ratio.

EXPE STO 10 of the 23 DTE 118/120 CCS for 0.40 against a 20 contract put #fuzzy.

Will start some #spycraft on Monday once my LNG and XBI cc are assigned.

hcgdavis 7:07 am on Friday, January 4, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy,   

Credit spread tweaks

EOG STO the 21 DTE 97/98 ccs for 0.23. Cb now 14.41 against a 120/120 and 125/126 put #fuzzy
EXPE STO the 21 DTE 117/118 ccs for 0.20 credit. Cb now 9.43 against a 110/110 put #fuzzy.

It rained over the weekend and my family was busy so I watched a bunch of tasty trade re-runs. 2 things I forgot about. They did a section on defined risk and looked at the number of times tested credit spread returned back to the level you placed the spread. It was less than 2:10 times, actually I think as they looked across multiple occurrences and it was much lower around 2%. So gave me an idea for credit spreads and #spycraft which I will start up again next week after some CC are called away.

I will be very mechanical in adjusting credit spreads now. As soon as the short strike is breached, I will delta hedge it to neutral and create a back spread. Odds improve that if it is breached will not return to that level so at that point you have a directional trade and might as well take advantage if it.

What this means is that if the short strike is breached, I will buy back half the # of shorts calls/puts as the original credit spread thereby creating a 2:1 back ratio. Then if we keep moving in that direction you get the boost from the directional kick.

Probably best to set these up 21-45 DTE so you have some room. A weekly probably would not work as well once ratioed because of the gamma effects close to expiration.

hcgdavis 2:14 pm on Thursday, January 3, 2019
Tags: , CallCreditSpread, Fuzzy   

Reading posts a lot of…

Reading posts a lot of us are under water on a lot of tickers. Out on a bike ride I had a thought. Obviously selling below the cost basis a snap back rally you then lock in your losses if assigned.

I have been saying it for a while but have yet to do it, sell ATM call credit spreads. Bring in a little income, if the market rockets upward you are long stock, short an equal # of calls, but then have the same number of calls long or any ratio you choose. No cap to the upside.

Personally I am going to do this on my TQQQ trades with the next roll. Roll down right to ATM and then be long net calls for free.

Probably not the best to do these with weeklies, I would go out 30-90 days to give them some room. Then if you want back in the stock, let your long calls exercise.

As for my losing put #fuzzy, duh on my part, I should be selling CCS spreads all the way down. We reverse and I will back ratio them. The problem is I always do it too late. From now on if I sell a delta 20-30 and it reaches delta 30-50, that is the point I will back ratio and hopefully get a directional kick. If nothing else at least reduce the max loss.

Thoughts? Other ideas?

#atomicfuzzy, #callcreditspread

hcgdavis 11:06 am on Thursday, January 3, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy, ,   

Lots of trading and work,…

Lots of trading and work, not much profit. The #fuzzy trades hold up well but since I am so far out in time and so far ITM on some of these now, not much income or fast theta decay. Had I known we would be in a full bear I would have unhinged them and would be collecting profits now.

#fuzzy
EOG 110/110 puts are now way ITM. Market makers are being greedy. I have an order in to roll the 29 DTE out to 43 for 0.45 credit but no one will take it. If I can’t roll it will reset or shut the entire thing down for about a 6 point loss as it gets closer to expiration. Hoping for at least a little bump in oil prices. cb 14.64
EXPE 125/126 and 120/120 rolled the 15 and 22 DTE out to 36 and 43 DTE for a total of 2.1 in credits. Cb now 9.63.
GILD 70/70 nice bump today. Cb 8.48 and will roll in a few weeks.
MU 35/35 cb 14.80. Getting dragged down further into the black hole by AAPL.
WDC 40/40 cb 19.11 same as MU.
XBI 80/80 cb 13.97
LNG 50/65 cb at 14.54
GILD lot 2 67.5/69 cb 8.9
Most of these are out 15-22 days before further rolling.

#pietrades
TQQQ 50 cc at 57.60 cb. Will either roll to a leap in 2 weeks or hope for rebound. IRA so I can sit on it but would like to be generating some income.
TQQQ lot 2 50 cc 58.10. Same story.
LNG 61 cc expires next week, cb 57.7 and if expires ITM will be first real winning trade in 13 weeks.
LNG lot 2 61 CC cb 58.53 sam as above.

#lizardpies
SQ 55.5/55.5/56.5 straddle expires tomorrow rolled down to strangle 54.5/55.5/56.5 for 0.49 credit. Total credit now 2.04 with cb of 53.46 if assigned and no risk to upside.

I really think the jade lizard will be an excellent tweak to the #pietrades and possibly increase returns another 10% annualized. As I unwind some of these other trades will be putting more of these on.

I also need to be much better at directional trading!!!!

As I have said before, the income will not keep up with the drops, as much as the market is a 50-50 proposition, the more I trade the more I realize being right on directional makes a huge difference to the success of a trade and profits in general.

hcgdavis 11:03 am on Monday, December 31, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy   

GILD #fuzzy. Rolled the 70/70…

GILD #fuzzy. Rolled the 70/70 18 DTE out to 39 DTE for 0.56 credit this morning at the open. Cb now 8.48.

smasty 7:43 am on Saturday, December 29, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy   

Follow up info

Here’s some follow up info to the post I did a couple days ago:

1. Scott Ruble is currently at www.stratagem.com His courses are good, but expensive. His “POT” (Practical Options Tactics) subscription is VERY expensive ($299/mo) and generally not worth it, very frustrating (You can get a 30 day trial of POT for free though). He has moments of brilliance, but you have to weed through a frustrating delivery style. @kathycon and I call it “finding gems in the poo.” Aeromir offers a 10% discount for Scott’s stuff, I think the coupon code is “AEROMIR10” or maybe “AERO10”. Scott is a bit like “Whiz-Lite.”
2. Scott used to be at Random Walk and the Random Walk website has some of Scott’s classes…some are even FREE…so I recommend going to www.randomwalktrading.com before doing anything at Stratagem. The “Layered Spreads” class at RW for $95 (on sale right now) is a must investment I think. Very very good, and taught by Scott. You get a very detailed pdf book with the course. If you buy the course, you get access to many videos immediately, but the PDF takes a couple days to receive while they do the ID encoding. All the doc downloads at RW are encrypted with your personal ID…so you can get in trouble if caught sharing them. Ed T. at Random Walk has the “OIA” subscription for $50/ mo….excellent value for what you’ll learn and his professional delivery.
3. Aeromir www.aeromir.com (Aeromir took over the defunct “Capital Discussions” group) has a free membership that gets you two week access to tons of videos (rolling two weeks)…definitely do the RTT 1 month trial for $25.00. You’ll learn a ton of good stuff. After the first month it’s $155. I think you can learn enough in the first month to go it alone. The trial will inundate you with info though….tons of email updates, risk graph images, texts on every update, videos to watch. They’ve recently launched two new services based on RTT, that give you “light” versions of info for a cheaper monthly expense. Just do the full trial and you’ll be on your way. RTT’s have struggled a bit with us in backwardation right now, so they have needed a lot of management…which is actually good to see the approaches they take for defense (Risk Reversals, Rolling Thunder hedges, Reverse Harveys). Aeromir does a lot of roundtables bringing in various trade experts to talk about their designs. If you search on YouTube for “Aeromir Scott Ruble Roundtable” he recently did a really good session on Rolling Thunder. I’d classify Aeromir as kind of a “bulletin board” type core, surrounded with different trade services. Low tech website, but they do bring in some good roundtable speakers, and “Trading Group 1” in the videos are usually worth listening to.

I think that’s about it, I’ll add more if I think of it.
Below is a snap of an article in Stocks and Commodities magazine about the RTT. I have the pdf if anyone wants it, drop me a line. smasterson@yahoo.com Or you might be able to google it.

SueRTT cover

#fuzzy

hcgdavis 10:39 am on Friday, December 28, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy   

EOG #fuzzy 110/110 leap puts….

EOG #fuzzy 110/110 leap puts. Rolled the long out to 2021 for additional 3.20. Cb increased to 14.64 but now have 107 weeks to manage it.

hcgdavis 9:40 am on Friday, December 28, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy,   

#pietrades LNG 61 cc rolled…

#pietrades

LNG 61 cc rolled out 2 weeks for 0.74 credit. Cb 58.53

Lot 2 62 CC rolled out 14 DTE to 61 cc for 0.53. Cb 57.7

Might have a few more later in the day

#fuzzy

hcgdavis 8:34 am on Friday, December 28, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy   

Question for @fuzzballl as I…

Question for @fuzzballl as I am debating closing some #fuzzy for tax purposes or keep them rolling.

Have a few that are way ITM now. Wish I had ratioed them in Oct. but too late now. Since you seem to be the only one with enough patience to take these to the end here are my questions

1. About how long does it take you to scratch the trade one ITM?

2. Seems like the best way to get any decent premium is to sell 43-45 DTE and reset at 22 DTE. Have you found that as well?

3. Once the new series of LEAP comes out does it make sense to roll the longs to the new leap for $3-4 or hang on to the one you have until the end?

Thanks!

I am debating taking some tax losses and resetting vs. hanging with the ones I have.

jsd501 6:55 am on Thursday, December 27, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy   

LABU

BTC 65 calls @.05

STO January 18, 2019 bear call spread 40/45 @.45 cents. It looks like I will have to roll these for the next 2 years in hope of breaking even. This was  a very dumb trade.

#fuzzy

hcgdavis 8:43 pm on Wednesday, December 26, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy   

I tend to learn something…

I tend to learn something every down turn. This one is no exception. Will keep it short and sweet.

1. Always keep a hedge on. Whether that is VIX futures, SPX puts, /es put or puts on your portfolio. I calculated my SPX hedges that I closed 3 weeks before the market sold off, each contract peaked at 43k Christmas eve, I had 2. That would have more than offset my losses and given me a pile of cash to trade or pay off my mortgage. I think going forward I will sell some leap puts on something I want to own and use the proceeds to cover hedges for an entire year. Call it the house paid for lottery ticket. If it even pays off once a year is worth it. Even once every 2-3 years it will pay for itself.

2. When direction starts to change, quickly ratio your spreads for the directional kick. Perhaps as early as delta 30.

3. Long stock set up a 30 dte synthetic short. Sell 1 atm call on your stock and buy just as many atm puts. At least then your losses are capped and may be a lottery ticket again. Good idea for IRAs.

4. Always keep some cash handy for opportunities like this.

5. Once a spread is deep ITM, probably better to close it and start over. Commissions are low enough now even at TOS that I probably should have reset 3 of my #fuzzy.

6. Volatility creates opportunity but also sometimes wide spreads and trouble trading. What you thought was liquid not so much when the SPX is down 300 points. Better to have the adjustment on early.

7. Not sure the bear is over but today helped all my positions so I will start looking to unwind when I can. Market drops give you a chance to reset trades.

8. Once a bottom is put in go syntheic long and don’t cap your gains!!

Hope everyone else is recovering and has some cash ready 🙂

hcgdavis 7:45 am on Monday, December 24, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy   

Merry Christmas Eve!

Did not think I would trade today but the continued market puke fest took all the time value out of a few of my positions.

MU rolled the 18 DTE 40/40 #fuzzy out to 39 DTE for 0.33 credit. Cb now 14.8. I suspect there is a lot of tax loss selling in the this and WDC and hope they will rebound in the new year.

I have some EXPE trades in the cue but the market makers are being greedy.

Also, even though my equity curve is now down, in my core account I have generated 17% cash returns over the last 12 weeks. As @kathycon I believe said below, equity is lower but cash is higher. Good to have some cash to use but this time I am waiting until I see a shift.

Maybe, just maybe that was the bottom this morning. The VIX spiked to 33.38 and hopefully that will mark the low. I was personally thinking we needed a vix spike 30-50 before a bottom. Of course it could go much higher but the last major dips were done when there was real panic.

Merry Christmas

hcgdavis 8:47 am on Thursday, December 20, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy, ,   

Lots of adjusting but not…

Lots of adjusting but not making anything, just staying flat. Brutal market, I am officially only 2 k above where I was Feb 2018 after the SVXY losses. Obviously need to change what I am doing, need more directional trading as income investing cannot keep up with 10-20% moves. 2018 is going down as a worse year than 2015. Hope everyone else is doing better than surviving. Even the increased volatility is making it hard to roll.

#pietrades
SQ STO the 56.5 8 DTE put for 1.11. CB 55.38 if assigned but I am most likely going to roll it. Actually it is now down 3+ and will roll it now. Moved to 55.5 15 DTE for 0.22 credit. Break even now 52.52.
LNG 61 cc rolled out to 15 DTE for 0.61 credit. Cb 58.10
TQQQ lot 1 60 cc rolled down to 50 cc 43 DTE for 0.80 credit. Cb 58.10
TQQQ lot 2 60 cc rolled down to 50 cc and 43 DTE for 0.70 credit cb 57.60
LNG lot 2 15 DTE 61 cc cb 59.27

#fuzzy
EXPE 125/126 rolled 43 DTE for 0.55 credit. cb now 12.23
EOG 110/110 rolled out 43 DTE for 0.4 credit. cb 11.44
GILD 67.5/69 rolled out 43 dTE for 0.69 credit cb now 8.90

May plan going forward. The now deep ITM #fuzzy will roll the short options out to 43 dte then reset after every 3 weeks. Hope to keep chipping away and if the delta/gamma becomes too large to roll for credits will either close or roll up/down. As long as I can gain 0.4 every 3 weeks will run them to expiration. Still have 108 weeks on most.

For the #pietrades that are below cost basis will aggressively roll up at any sign of rebound to avoid being run over and locking in a loss.

As cash builds from the rolls may either sit on it or add to weekly #pietrades depending on what the market is doing. However I think getting short here is stupid. Any progress on a trade deal with China and I think we rebound big time. Not to get political, but I think the GOP is starting to see how bad tariffs are (layoffs, increased costs, and now crashing market) and to keep their jobs will pressure to get a deal done.

Trade smart or sitting on the sidelines for a while is also a viable option. Wish I had just kept my hedges on, I would be pulling out huge amounts of cash now. Another expensive lesson learned.

#s

hcgdavis 8:24 am on Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy   

MU #fuzzy Rolled the 40/40…

MU #fuzzy

Rolled the 40/40 down to 35/35 for debit of 2.10 then credit of 0.88 so cost basis now 15.13. Its a dog but weekly premium is good so I thought I would stick with. Have 108 weeks to break even or hopefully make some money on it.

MU and WDC both went from being my best perforning tickers all year to my worst in just 10 weeks.

Jeff 7:10 am on Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Tags: , Fuzzy   

MU earnings analysis

#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC 0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC 4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC 8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%
March 23, 2017 AC 7.40%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC 12.68% Biggest UP
Oct. 4, 2016 AC -0.56%
June 30, 2016 AC -9.15% Biggest DOWN
March 30, 2016 AC -0.09%
Dec. 22, 2015 AC -2.12%

Avg (+ or -) 5.11%
Bias 0.46%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 34.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 31.72 to 37.77
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 32.97 to 36.53
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s 12.7%): 30.34 to 39.16

Open for requests on other symbols.

#fuzzy

hcgdavis 9:05 am on Friday, December 14, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy, ,   

Rolling a bunch this week

#fuzzy
EXPE 125/126 7 DTE rolled out 21 for 0.40 credit. Cb 12.78
EOG 110/110 7 DTE rolled our 28 DTE for 0.55 credit. Cb 11.84
MU 40/40 7 DTE to 21 DTE for 0.40 credit. Cb 13.91
WDC 40/42.5 7 DTE to 28 DTE for 0.51 credit. Cb 19.58.
GILD 67.5/69 1 DTE to 21 DTE for 0.76. Cb 9.59

Still have 109 weeks to manage these and some have already been reduced 25-50% from original cost. For pure ROI looks like #fuzzy may win especially when volatility kicks up.

#pietrades
LNG 62 cc 1 DTE rolled out 7 DTE for 0.74 credit. Cb 58.84

All told $1860 of credits for the week. Another week or 2 will have enough cash to start the #lizardpies test using 1-2 contracts. After 8 weeks of being flat finally bringing in cash again to use for new trades.

I plan to try to take a few of the #fuzzy all the way to expiration just to see what kind of actual/real world returns you can get over a year. Currently looks around 100% annualized. With the exception of WDC. may end up closing that as soon as I can break even especially if it keeps dropping.

Have a great weekend 🙂

fuzzballl 8:07 am on Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy, ,   

UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS – Experimental trade being short UVXY out to 2021 and only using monthly put sales at a long 2 by short 1 ratio. Only trying to cover cost and let contango and delta do the work.

Bought to Close UVXY DEC 21 2018 45.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 3.15)

Sold UVXY JAN 18 2019 50.0 Put @ 2.31

#fuzzy