#Markets – Falling knife stocks…

#Markets – Falling knife stocks at new lows:
NKTR – Nektar Therapeutics
DLPH – Delphi Technologies PLC
CBS – CBS Corporation
OI – Owens-Illinois, Inc.
AMG – Affiliated Managers Group, Inc.
VIAB – Viacom Inc.
SLB – Schlumberger Limited
ADS – Alliance Data Systems Corporation
HPQ – HP Inc.
FCX – Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
ABMD – Abiomed, Inc.
OXY – Occidental Petroleum Corporation
FANG – Diamondback Energy, Inc.
CCL – Carnival Corporation & Plc
AMCR – Amcor plc
HP – Helmerich & Payne, Inc.
CXO – Concho Resources Inc.
EOG – EOG Resources, Inc.
DO – Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc.
SCHW – The Charles Schwab Corporation

#fuzzy

#markettide Is showing a possible…

#markettide

Is showing a possible reversal on the 5 minute for /ES.

IBB STO the other side of the strangle at 103 c for 0.65 for 11/8 exp. Strangle is now the 101.5/103 for 3.45 credit total after some rolls. I am trying this as an experiment based on the TT research. Open initially at 43-45 DTE then manage at 21 DTE no matter what. Rolled the put side last week. They showed that beats all other management tactics for selling options so seeing how it works in real time with real money. 10 contracts so there is some skin in the game. So far so good, showing an $875 profit even with the puts being ITM. If it works will set up ladders on various ETFs. Single tickers would use #jadelizard to avoid upside risk.

#fuzzy
XBI rolled the short 80 put from 10 DTE out to 24 DTE for 0.42 credit. Cb 13.66.
LNG 60/65 rolled out to 45 DTE for 0.52 credit. Cb 7.12.

I have been trying to…

I have been trying to move out of the leveraged ETFs but am stuck in a few for a while. Tastytrade did some research that shows trading options on the leveraged has much lower returns than just trading the regular ETF. Even accounting for contango/drift/ backwardization. My personal results show that as well. I know a lot of people here trade them but it may be more effective to not option trade them. As a hedge, sure they work but for options not so much. With the volatility over the last month or so, I have had trouble staying ahead of the fluctuations. The premiums are huge but the options are not priced for the movement for selling them.

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/trading-options-on-leveraged-etfs-11-26-2018
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/leveraged-etfs-not-consistent-performance-03-31-2016

#pietrades
With that said rolled
LABU 35 cc out 29 DTE for 1 and cost basis down to 33.80. My plan is to let call out if ITM and use it on something else.
TQQQ 60 CC rolled out to next week fr 0.98. Cb 57.52. Same as above.
LABU 35.5 cc rolled out 22 DTE and down to 35 for 0.90. Cb 33.49. Same
EXPE STO the 29 DTE 123 put for 2.05. Timing could not have been worse, market reversed 2 minute after that.

#fuzzy
XBI #fuzzy rolled 80/80 out to 22 DTE for 0.65 credit. Cb now 0.85. Still have until 2021 to keep making $ on this one.
XBI #fuzzy 80/83 rolled down to 80/80 and 29 DTE for 0.88 credit. Cb 3.99.
LNG 65/62.5/61/60 rolled this weeks 61 and 62.5 to 61 and 62 for 22 and 29 DTE for 0.56 and 0.88 credits. Cb now 5.34

Also don’t know if any of you saw the Tastytrade episodes, market measures in the summer, search back to around page 7-12 on strangles showing that managing strangles/trades at 21 DTE beat all other management strategies, period. Even better than 50% profits. There are about 3-4 sessions on that. I have an IBB experiment going on starting 43-45 DTE and managing at 21-22 DTE. Hard to tell how it is working with the volatility but I rolled IBB yesterday (just the put side). Will re-establish the strangle depending on where we end up this week or next. I also have an ITM #jadelizard experiment going on at opening at 21 DTE. Will let you know results once I have a few cycles.

Not trying to brag but my core account just hit an all time high so I must be doing something right. That wipes out the SVXY losses on 1 account. 2 others still have a way to go but this is my largest trading account so nice to know I covered those losses in 21 months. I originally thought it would take much longer. I suspect the other 2 accounts will take another 12 months on 1 and 24 on the other. Chipping away and will hope to never make that mistake again!!!!

Trade smart, stay nimble 🙂

IBB strangle 102/107 for 10/25.

Closed the call side for 0.10. Rolled the 102 put down to 101.5 for 11/8 for 0.09 credit. If keep dropping with convert to #fuzzy now that the 2022 LEAPs are out.

EOG #fuzzy 85/75/75 rolled the 75 puts for this week out to next week for 0.41 credit. Cost basis 23.11 now.

My /ES 2690/2700 hedges only have about 2k profit, trying to sit on my hands for now but if looks like flat rest of day will roll down to take out some cash/profits.

XBI 80/80 #fuzzy rolled next week short puts out to 10/25 for 0.43 credit. Cb now 13.54. May roll the longs out to 2022 soon because they only cost $3-4 more for another year of weekly selling.

I have once again proven…

I have once again proven my inability to time the market. Yesterday converted a bunch of ATM and ITM XBI puts on a ladder to #fuzzy to avoid the increasing margin. Of course it was up 2+ points yesterday and another 1.5 today. Will manage as #fuzzy. I had already rolled several times and converted to #jadelizard but was still facing increasing margin requirement.

Cost basis 13.80 on 20 lots and already rolled next week 78 up to Oct 11 80 for 1.07 credit so 10 lots at 12.73 but have until Dec 2021 to manage. These are on the put side. LEAPS at 80 strike, shorts at 78, 79.5, and 80 now.

Rolls and adjusting

Last 2 weeks just adjusted several puts that went ITM from all the tweets.

Anyway, showing some profits this week so rolling and resetting.

/ES hedges closed for a $230 loss. Considering they cost $2398 they did their job. Kept me in trades and generated some cash on the first twitter drop. Reset to 106 DTE at the 2690/2700 back ratio, short 2:4 long for $3225. Hope I don’t need them but if so the lottery ticket will pay for future hedges. It was cheaper today with the VIX drop.

#pietrades XBI ladder at the 78/80/82 strikes. Rolled the 80 down to 79 and out 22 DTE for 1.19. Total credit 1.45 so cost 77.60 if assigned (include commisions). The other are 81.77 and 77.60.
JPM 106 puts closed for 0.15 or 1.19 profit per contract.
IBB STO 99 22 DTE put for 1.00.
LABU 3 lots at the 38 strikes will take assignment and convert to CC true #pietrade style. Spreads were too wide to roll since really close to ATM.

#fuzzy
EOG 85/74.5 and 75/75 puts rolled and cost basis now 24.19. Not the best candidate for LEAPs as the long options were expensive but saved some bacon.
GILD 65/65 will roll next week. CB 1.97. 2 more rolls should be 100% returns and free trade after that. Good until 2021. This was also a recovery from when it was closer to 80 so not a bad recovery.
GILD 65/65 rolled for credit, now free trade. Have 0.39 credit per contract. The other 2 batches in this account are 2.28 and 6.08 debits.
LNG 60/60 put spread CB 9.30. Will roll in 1-2 weeks.
XBI 80/80 calls at 2.13
XBI 80/85 at 0.77 credit per contract (free trade :)). Still have to 2021 to keep selling against it or just sit on the long calls if it starts going up again.
80/83 at 6.00. Cost basis was 11.63 and started 6/21 so 51.5% return since June 21 this year. I think #fuzzy LEAP spreads are the clear winners for smaller accounts. But certain names trade better than others. You want to buy as cheap a LEAP as you can find then sell expensive weekly options against it.
LNG 65/65/61.5/59.5 down to 8.66. Converted about 3 weeks ago when a bunch of puts went deep ITM. Excellent return here as well, initial cost was 11.12 so 33% in 3 weeks.

Trade smart!

Rolling just about everything. As…

Rolling just about everything. As I mentioned will not list all my ongoing trades, just list new ones going forward or ones that were listed before I had to drop out.

Tried a directional trade on /ES at the open, lost $700 when my stop was hit.

XBI 82.5 put rolled down to 80 for 9/6 for 0.26 credit. Cb 79.74 if assigned
EOG 85/83.5 #fuzzy rolled out to 9/13 for 0.45 credit. Cb 17.89
LABU 41 puts rolled down to 38 and 9/13 for 0.5, 0.45, 0.55 credits. cb ranges from 37.45-37.55
GILD 65/65 #fuzzy (some of these were on before March injury) rolled for 0.51 credit. Cost basis now 0.53, 3.20, 6.72, and 2.52. A few will be 100% returns and free trades in just a few more rolls.
TQQQ 62.5 rolled down to 60 for 9/13 for 0.67 credit. Cb 59.33

Hope everyone is doing well. I suspect there will be some more rolls before my trades break even or make money.