STO the next week 8 DTE FAS 68 CC at 67.20 in IRA, only 300 shares.
Tomorrow have some expirations that look safe for now.
WDC 87 CC will let call out
FAS 67 CC will let assign
That’s all for this week. Mostly need to sit on my hands and let theta do its magic.
I need to place some #fuzzy trades and #spycraft trades to improve ROI but to be honest, my trading confidence is still low after the SVXY debacle. To have an entire year’s worth of trading profits wiped out by one trade has been a major gut punch. Luckily I learned to segregate accounts after 8/24/2015 and only affected 2 out of 7 accounts. I know how to trade, fairly good at it, the SVXY was an isolated event, but still sits in the back of your head and prevents you from hitting the send button on some trades I know are good.
After I successfully manage what I currently have on and have a few cycles of profitable trades it should get some mojo back.
As I am reading “Trading options for edge” realize I probably need to manage the positions and portfolio by the Greeks more, especially delta and gamma. Learning some new hedging techniques that should be very beneficial and will post them as I use them and learn them.
#pietrades, #optionladder, and #spycraft
Spent last hour looking for trades this week after finishing taxes :). Not much in the way of #pietrades for the week, everything is extended and the decrease in vol sucked out some of the juicy premiums.
The best I can find is the BIB 62-63 CC depending on how aggressive you want to be. Other option is the put side but have to stay close to the money to get any good premium.
Also looking and ANDV (the old TSO) around the 100-103 level either CC or puts, your choice they are at parity.
GM assigned over the weekend, will sell 39 CC a few weeks out. Cost basis 39.3.
LNG already set up for Friday at the 55 CC.
With that in mind, may go out 26 DTE today 25 tomorrow and set up some ladders to give some more downside protection. Bunch of tickers there, AMGN, ANDV, CVX, MAR, MON, NKE, NSC, UNP, PSX, UAL, VLO, XBI. The 20 delta puts all have good premiums on these and don’t mind taking some shares if assigned.
#spycraft on hold. Looking back the last several weeks, the expected move on SPX/ES/SPY has been exceeded 3 out of the last 5 weeks both to the up and down side. That means the options are not priced correctly, we are not making enough for the risk. Once the pricing is back in line, or the vol. is higher to reflect the movement of SPY will restart. Also going forward will manage by buying in between the strikes if it looks like the short strike will be breached. See previous discussions for the specifics.
Hope everyone had a good weekend!
Will decide what to do with some of these trades at lunch time tomorrow.
First positive week since the SVXY melt down Feb 5-6, 2018, so that is a good thing. I think the bleeding finally stopped, only 1 more contract I can be assigned on at any time.
If I can keep making the same amount each week (unlikely) only 33.3 weeks to get back to all time highs but about half that to get to even (cost basis). What I lost was mostly house money but it was enough to buy a real house 😦 ouch!!
LNG rolled this week 54 CC to 2 week 55 for 0.45 credit. Cost basis now 54.2 after being assigned the 55.5 put last week. Next roll down should result in a profit anywhere around 54.
Unless a major move tomorrow I expect to be called out on (hopefully there are no stupid tweets!)
FAS 66, 67, 68 CC
MAR at 138
NSC at 140
GM 42.5 put. Taking stock, can’t roll it anymore for a credit so will take it and sell CC. Missed the dividend, I think it is today.
Have finally finished taxes and full year review. Based on what won and what lost going forward my trading plan is contracting dramatically to only 4-5 trading tactics.
2. #spycraft and credit spreads with the new adjustment technique
3. #fuzzy and maybe try a few #atomicfuzzy
4. put ladders with fuzzy adjustments if they go the wrong way
5. VXX put debit spreads after volatility spikes
Everything else worked until it didn’t and either was flat but required lots of trades or worked really well until it blew up. Goal is to recover what I lost, then keep weekly income coming in, and most importantly do not lose any money again!
Hope everyone has a good close to the week, too busy tomorrow to check in.
#spxcampaign SPY version #shortputspread #spycraft
Sold 2 March 16 265/267 put spreads for .40 each
I am curious if there is a version of #SPXcampaign that does not require watching the monitor all day long?
I reviewed all posts on this site for #SPXcampaign going back to 2016 and noticed that Jeff has to do a lot of rolls and must stay on top of the action.
Going far out and down, does reduce the need to watch SPX every day, but it also produces small results.
Someone recommended going with a fewer contracts, but $50 to $100 wide, because it would be easier to manage a spread this wide.
In 2015 I was actively trading SPX spreads $20 wide and got wiped out in August.
Just trying to find something more consistent and less demanding. 🙂
Edit: I have a regular margin account, no portfolio margin.
#pietrades and #optionsexpiration
Not much today, taking assignment of LNG puts at 55.5 strike. Cost basis 55.02. Start selling calls on Monday.
Rolled NSC 141 covered call today to next week 140 for 1.40 credit. Cost basis now 138.57.
Already rolled GM to next week, will take assignment, collect dividend then sell calls. Cost basis 39.3
MAR 138 does not expire until next week because I hit the wrong button on Monday when I sold it.
Once I clear some of these out will restart #spycraft actually using spy and will adjust by adding in the middle calls/puts if needed. First adjustment would be a roll like @jeffcp66 but if it keeps moving then try the new style.
Will set up 45 DTE and each 3-7 days add new cycle. Once 3-4 weeks rolling manage it like a continuous ladder of credit spreads.
Credit spread adjustments, will be good for #spycraft trades and #spxcampaign among others.
Reading the new book “trading options for edge”. Fairly technical but about half way through now but hit on an adjustment for spreads that is so simple, why didn’t I think of that? Maybe even easier and more profitable than rolling or can at least scratch a trade.
For this to work you have to set up a credit spread that has at least 1 strike between them. For instance you could not do it with a 267.5/267 spy spread but you could do it with a 267.5/266.5. Also need to keep some cash ready for the adjustment.
So if your short strike is in danger of being breached, just buy a few options between the strikes. So say you had the 268/263 spy put spread and about to breach the 268 strike. Say you had 10 contacts, you could buy 3 or 4 of 265 puts and it would basically neutralize your gamma and delta risk. The other benefit is if it keeps moving once you are past your long strike would start showing a profit again because you are net long options and basically have a back ratio spread, just with tweaked strikes. Would work great on a day like today.
Worst case scenario is it stalls out after breaching your short strike but at least you have reduced the max loss a lot and if there is still enough time in the trade you may be able to scratch it for even.
As I said, duh, why didn’t I think of that. I have 8 different ways to adjust a losing credit spreads but this is probably the easiest and most effective. Much easier than diagonal, calendar, butterfly, BWB, back ratio or any of the other adjustments because you do not extend duration. It will all close out at the same time.
I will try it in a week or 2 once I clear out this round of trades. May intentionally set one up to blow up and see what happens.
I also was looking through past #spycraft type trades and the ones that were put on 21 or more DTE had better results than the shorter term ones. More time for a big move to reverse.
Going forward, these trades with be 21 or more DTE and if they need adjustment this will be the primary adjustment.