#spycraft What do the IC…

#spycraft

What do the IC or SPX traders think of this opportunity:
Sell Jul 16 2795/2800/2805 for $3.40. The risk is $1.60 with relatively large cushion. It seems attractive to me but I have little experience with IC’s.

edit: Present price 2799 +/- with price mid-point varying 3.30 to 3.50.

Moving a lot to cash

I’m starting to take a lot of trades off and putting fewer new ones on. I am doing this for these reasons:

1. The #SPXcampaign has not been working well in 2018. It was my core strategy starting in January 2015 and worked well through 2016. In 2017, I got crushed a little too much on the upside, and now this year’s whipsaw has been too difficult. I’m going flat in $SPX. Currently I only have a couple of OTM call spreads which I’ll be closing a bit cheaper. I will look to start fresh in the coming weeks or months after I assess the strategy.

2. I have been long a few tech stocks and selling calls. I was also rolling into strangles when calls got breached. In the last week the puts have been getting hit. So I’m keeping the stock for now but have closed most puts. I will sell covered calls if we move higher, or stop myself out if we move much lower or go into more serious correction.

3. I’m not feeling positive about the market. Of course, me typing this paragraph will likely mean today is the bottom! But the market action, the tariff fears, and other reasons for 2018 volatility do not seem to be abating. Plus record low unemployment is often what precedes a recession, and the nation’s debt and deficits are flying to new highs. I by no means am certain of a crash, and I wouldn’t be including this in my decision if it weren’t for #4.

4. My family is spending a month in Japan from late July to late August (my wife is from there, so we’ll be visiting family and touring). The NYSE opens at 10:30pm Tokyo time… I intend to keep trading lightly, but do not want to be going through volatility with lots of positions and having to stay up all night.

I hope to reset my mind, catch up on bookkeeping (both trading and household), and build out this website a bit more.

So, to summarize: I am closing out SPX, TQQQ
I’m keeping stock in AAPL, BABA, SQ, and FB, all with stops set in not too much lower than current prices. BABA is a bit underwater but the other three are nicely in profit.
I have stock also in these which are currently struggling: #PieTrades in MU and AMAT, and broken earnings trade in OLED. I’ll let these sit, sell calls, and dump them if they can’t recover soon.
The only #VXXGame trades I have are long puts in $VXX, a trade that would have worked every year for the past 9 (except maybe 2011), but is NOT working in 2018. Also long $SVXY stock and short a small amount of $VXX stock. I have way OTM long calls on UVXY and VXX, so I’m prepared to sell volatility should it get expensive.
Still short some puts in RH, YY, and GUSH, which I’ll allow to decay.
Long LEAP calls in PYPL and SQ which were cheap, so no reason to close. I will sell calls against these.

And that’s it! Let me know any questions you have about positions you were following.

#spycraft

#vxxgame With the Vol getting…

#vxxgame

With the Vol getting so low, is it a good time to buy some Leap calls in UVXY or VXX?

#fuzzy, #pietrade, #spycraft, #supercharger

Some observations as I closed…

Some observations as I closed out another week. Good 3 weeks 🙂 the pull back a few weeks ago really helped.

1. Critical mass on accounts seems to be around 50k. At that point the compounding really starts to kick in and the account becomes self sustaining for positive theta, #pietrades, income trades. Trades that need to be adjusted do not seem to affect the account value as much at these levels as well. Trading 6 different accounts with different values, lowest $3500 so can really see the difference. Each contract adds a lot more cash each week. 5-10 contracts is where the income really starts to compound and pay off. Even 3 contracts is a lot better than 1 unless talking AMZN or PCLN.

2. Some names are just better than others. GM is out as soon as it closes this week. Names with perceived high volatility but don’t really move around a lot and have good premiums (0.5-1% per week minimum) do the best and are easier to adjust.

3. I try to suck all the time value out of an option but once down to 0.2 roll it for better theta decay.

4. defending trades, easier to do it before the option goes way ITM or better yet, roll it before it even gets there. You will loose a little in time value but by rolling earlier you can stay ahead and continually bring in credits. Now if it is sitting right ATM I will wait until the last minute to roll it but if there is any time left, easier to roll early.

5. Taking a slight directional bias really increases returns. Allows to sell puts closer to ATM and also time call sales better.

6. For small accounts the #supercharger seems to work the best. Better ROI than credit spreads, less adjusting, less risk overall (defined) and more cushion for pull backs as you are already deep ITM. However, have to work the spread on entry or the exit is not as profitable. For any of my accounts under 10k I will be doing a lot more of these. 10k and up probably #pietrades with some #fuzzies thrown in. Occasional #spycraft as well but to be honest the #supercharger are doing much better when we have pull backs and more consistent gains.

Sitting on my hands until Fri. Hopefully we have a pull back, at least a little one where no one gets crushed 🙂

#fuzzy

#spycraft Add another spread Jun…

#spycraft

Add another spread Jun 01 2740/2750 for $1.00cr, delta 0.14 when SPX 2730.01

#spycraft STO BeCS Jun 01…

#spycraft

STO BeCS Jun 01 2735/2745 for $1.50cr at 9:55
added BuPS Jun 01 2715/2705 for $0.75cr 10:07, should have held out for $1cr

Long weekend=extra theta.

#pietrades normally would have rolled/closed these tomorrow but there are only 4 of us in the office tomorrow (usually 14) so I doubt I would have any time to trade. Will be busy!

BTC MAR 139 puts for 1.70. After 2 rolls still made $459 in 2 weeks. Did not like the way the chart was starting to look. With gas/oil prices climbing may be less travel this summer.

This brings me to my next conclusion. It is debatable whether to trade individual tickers on #pietrades for the higher premiums than we get with ETFs vs taking advantage of some of the leveraged ETFs. Personally I am trying to move to ETFs, but the weekly premium dried up. Today might help. SMH still looked good for a week but IBB, XBI and the indexes all dropped their juicy premiums. So anyway, I have been doing this for several months now, I think it may be safer and easier to trade the leveraged products. You do not have single company risk, the premiums are high enough they are easy to roll. Yes in a big market drop they will get crushed but in looking at their histories most would be reverse split instead of liquidate like XIV/SVXY. Thoughts? Anyone see a risk I am missing?

So with that said with the recent splits looks like the list from a few days ago is still accurate but the liquidity is not all the way back on TQQQ and UPRO. I tried to #supercharger them but the market makers were not giving reasonable fills.

GM 37.5 CC expires 6.8. Was going to try to keep it for the dividend now but rolling only gives me .14 credit, not worth it. Hopefully I will be called out early for the dividend so I can use the cash somewhere more productive.

LABU STO 84 put for next week 8 DTE for 1.45
LABU rolled 85 put to next week 84 for 1.05 credit.
LABU rolled 85 put to next week 84 for 1.1 credit

AMAT rolled 51 CC to next week for 0.36 credit. Cost basis now 53.11 and will keep chipping away.
AMAT 50.5 CC rolled to next week for 0.42 credit. Cost basis now 49.93. Will allow assignment or roll again next week depending on premiums.

#spycraft closed the 15 DTE 265/262 pcs fro 0.25. sold for 0.24 so lost .1 and commissions.

#supercharger Found a good use for SOXL and BIB since they don’t have weeklies.
SOXL 22 DTE 125/130 vertical debit spread for 4.65. Should close for 5 credit close to the end. 30 + points ITM and still able to squeeze out 13-14% return for 22 days. That’s 169-182% annualized and easy to mange if it implodes.

Hope everyone has a great long weekend! Thanks to all those who served!!

#fuzzy