No predictions here but I…

No predictions here but I don’t think we bounce until the VIX is in the 20s.

Only trade that is working for me at the moment is /CL. MU, WDC, EXPE, and most of the chips all suck. Good thing they are #fuzzies and still have 1-2 years to break even.

I am now flat on profits for the year in my core account but still have 12k + of decay over the next 35 days. Unfortunately they theta decay is not keeping pace with the dropping market.

TQQQ pietrade

Dipping my fingers in the pie. Thanks @hcgdavis for your help. I welcome constructive criticism on my choice of ticker or strikes.:-)
STO TQQQ Oct12 66.5p @ 1.80

#pietrade

#fuzzies

Weekly vs monthly options or…

Weekly vs monthly options or #pietrades vs #optionladder

Not trying to sound greedy but after I converted a lot of #pietrades to #fuzzies and #optionladder, the decay is A LOT slower. Like watching paint dry but there are some advantages and disadvantages. Had a lot of time to think about trading this weekend with tropical storm and hurricane on the way.

Advantages:
higher premiums up front
less frequent adjusting
lower gamma risk, it can move around more before it hurts the overall position.
less trading=less commissions and fewer trades to monitor
easier to adjust
less intensive trading

Disadvatages:
slower premium decay, much slower my theta is half of what it usually is
less overall premium, you get more up front but 4 weeks of ATM options is a lot more premium than 1 option sale
fewer positions
in the case of diagonals or multi strike calendars, harder to adjust with monthlies. Weeklies let you simply roll up/down/out
less compounding effect, my back of the note pad answer is about 15-20% less annualized returns compared to weeklies

So which one wins? Depends on your goals. Personally I am trying to grow accounts so I will be sticking with mostly weekly and #pietrades. The compounding effects more than offset the additional work.

If you already have everything you need, then #optionladder would probably make more sense.

Some days/months trading is easy, other not so much. These last 6 weeks have been hard for me after earnings went bad and not a lot of time to trade. If it was easy everyone would do it and be good at it.

Thanks again for the ideas. I finally close a lot of these trades in 11 days and can re-deploy capital.

#cat4, #optionladders

#pietrades and making adjustments. I…

#pietrades and making adjustments.

I have some garbage in my accounts right now and just as I start to break even, it moves again. MU, WDC started as #pietrades, converted to #fuzzies. MU was showing a profit yesterday but 5 points down today on MU and 2 on WDC now have created more work. So anyway, here is what I have and will gradually be moving to ETFs. Only problem is some of my accounts are not big enough to handle the good ETFs unless I #fuzzy them which is probably what I should be doing anyway. On a positive note I have made back 25-30% of the SVXY losses in 6 months. Probably another year to make it all back. That was a harder lesson than the /ES in Aug. of 2015 but at least I had a bigger capital base so did not totally destroy the accounts. Will be interesting to see what happens with the premiums when SVXY reverse splits. I will not trade it unhedged!!

Adjustments
MU 55/50 LEAP call rolled out to 8 DTE for 0.42 credit. CB now 10.52
WDC rolled the 15 DTE 60/65 LEAP down to same date but 60 short call for 1.01 credit. Cb now 16.77
EOG 115 LEAP call 15 DTE, no adjustment. Cb 11.20

New trades
LABU STO the 15 DTE 90 put for 1.2. You could do better now.
TQQQ batch 1 cc 65 at 8 DTE for 64.00
TQQQ batch 2 65.5 cc 8 DTE at 64.45
LNG batch 1 66.5 cc 8 DTE at 65.40
LNG batch 2 66.5 cc 8 DTE at 65.65

Added to XBI #fuzzy and now have all Jan 2019 LEAPS and 22 DTE short calls
95/98 leaps at 5.49 this is the new one
87/95 leaps at 6.43
95/95 leaps at 2.95

At least my theta decay is huge.

Need to be better about direction and timing, wil be using my tools more now instead of just placing weekly #pietrades no matter the ticker is doing.

Even with the garbage still made $582 last week but generally stagnant after the last earnings round.

It seems that a lot of my #pietrades have been converted to #fuzzy lately. Maybe I can get to 10 names, 10 contracts each making $1 or more a week, that would be a lot of cash coming in which would offset some of these dogs 🙂

#pietrades, #rolling, #hedge On vacation…

#pietrades, #rolling, #hedge

On vacation this week but home so still doing some trading.

Let’s get the crap out of the way first. Sorry to anyone who followed AMAT. Loss on the last earnings 12 weeks ago. Almost worked it back to even but they beat last week but still punished so break even or near break even is now a loss again. I mostly had these in small accounts so am closing so I can use the money on something more effective. BTC all the 47 call options for pennies, 0.03. Sold the stock at 43.06 and 43.09. Total losses (not per contract) of $588 on lot 1 and $558 on lot 2. Not bad considering it was down over $2000 initially. Rolling helps but the reason I am closing it is this: as it dropped below $50 the premiums dried up. ATM 1 week out is only 0.4-0.5. Not enough for #pietrades. Second reason is after 14 weeks of not being able to break even, time to move on. Like GM this is off the #pietrade list for a while. If you can’t bring in more than 0.5-1% per week, not worth #pietrade.

STC the SPX 2550 calendar hedge for 0.55. So a 1 month hedge only cost 0.65. I will continue playing with these but doubt I will always have a hedge. Maybe easier to just short some /ES futures when needed.

Rest are updates, rolls, new trades.
#fuzzies
MU LEAP 55/50 8 DTE cb at 11.26. At least MU found a base.
WDC LEAP 60/ 65 29 DTE cb at 17.78. Looks like finding new range in the 60-70 area.
EOG LEAP 115/115 29 DTE cb at 11.2.
XBI LEAP 87/95 and 95/95 rolled out to 22 DTE for 0.72 credit. cb now 6.8 and 3.32. Should be free trades soon.

#pietrades
LABU 8 DTE 85 put for 1.9, cb 83.10 if assigned. Good support at 85.
TQQQ lot 1 65 cc rolled to next week 65.5 cc for 0.20 credit. Cb 62.78
TQQQ lot 2 65 CC cb 63.23, new trade, small account only 1-2 contracts
TQQQ lot 3 65 cc rolled to next week 65.5 for 0.25 credit. Cb now 62.98
TQQQ lot 4 66 CC cb 65.02 new trade.
TQQQ lot 5 65 cc cb 63.90

Looks like a lot of TQQQ but each account only 1-2 contracts, I am diversified elsewhere. However I have noticed that my more concentrated accounts are doing much better. Better to be a specialist than a general practitioner like me, at least for trading. Also have noticed the more you get direction right, the better the non directional trades do better. Will keep working on being better at directional bias.

A few other changes. No more #pietrades on earnings. Last 5 out of 8 went bad and basically flattened my equity curve for the last 4 months. Would have done much better without those. If I do them will use spreads in advance. Without those 5 losing earnings trades I could have paid off my wife’s car.

Converting deep ITM #pietrades into #fuzzy is a very effective risk reduction tool. Allows you to limit margin but also keep selling premium weekly and looking at 100% returns over 6 months if I keep them going. Probably best tactic for small accounts.

I will be moving most of the #pietrades over to ETFs and leveraged products to avoid the single ticker risk. The ladder idea works well for this 45 DTE and closing/rolling after 3 weeks.

#rolling With the drop yesterday…

#rolling

With the drop yesterday can pretty much roll everything instead of letting call out or assign. Bad few weeks for MU and WDC down 11 and 14% respectively. They were converted to #fuzzies so a little easier to manage now but this is the only account showing a drop.

New trade STO SQ next week 70 put for 0.95.

MU 55 leap 50 call rolled a yesterday dropping cost basis to 11.26

WDC 60 leap 65 call rolled yesterday dropping cb to 18.01

EOG 115 put 36 DTE was challenged yesterday. Cost basis 113.2 if assigned.

This made me realize an easier way to manage deep ITM #pietrades is to convert it to a put leap #fuzzy. Takes out the margin requirement. If keeps dropping can manage it to a put diagonal. If reverses can either add a call side or keep rolling the put up. As you do that the margin requirement will increase but still much less than naked puts. If I had done this with MU and WDC instead of converting to the call side I would be making $ now. With any leap strategy, the short option strike is what determines the profit loss at the expiration of the short option. Going forward I think this will be my preferred strategy but only for deep ITM puts (5 points or more). Otherwise will manage as a regular weekly #pietrade.

SPX hedge rolled next week 2550 short put out to 15 DTE for 0.6 credit. Hedge only costs 1.2 now and if we head to 2550 will still make 12k. Hope I don’t need it. Next month will use back ratio or risk twist.

TQQQ batch 1 65 cc expires tomorrow rolled to next week for 0.9 credit. cb now 62.98.
TQQQ batch 2 65 cc expires tomorrow rolled to next week for 0.9 credit. Cb now 63.23

AMAT batch 1 47 cc rolled out 2 weeks for 0.33. Cb 48.91. Few more weeks to cover it.
AMAT batch 2 47 cc rolled out 2 weeks for 0.31 credit. Cb now 45.88 and if I can’t get more than 0.5 on next roll will let it assign and move to another #pietrade

#fuzzy XBI 87 and 95 leaps with rolled the 96 and 96.5 short calls down to 95 for 15 DTE for 1.1 and 10.6 credits. Cb now 7.52 and 4.04 as they were separate batches.

TOS calculates diagonals weird. They are all showing a loss on the graph but nearly 20% reduction in cost in 1 month so make sure you keep track of your cost basis. In the end that is all that really matters with any trade.

Hope everyone is having a good week. Not much to do until next week now. At least I tripled my theta decay with all the rolls.

#pietrade conversion to #fuzzy Sold…

#pietrade conversion to #fuzzy

Sold WDC for 67.16 against cost basis of 72.34. BTO 60 leap in 2020 for 14.15 bringing new cost basis to 19.33. With 73 weeks left only need to collect 0.27 per week to cover. Already short the 70s 16 DTE.

Freed up 60k in margin for other uses.

I will be doing this a lot more with #pietrades that go way ITM. Much cheaper way to stay in the trade, less to lose, less to make up and plenty of time to do it.

Question for @fuzzballl since you do the most of these. On an annualized basis what are realistic returns for these? I personally come close to 100% but may not be managing them the best.

#fuzzies