#pietrades New trades FAS 3/30…

#pietrades

New trades
FAS 3/30 expiration 65 CC cost basis 63.65
FAS 3/30 exp. 64 CC cost basis 62.70
LNG 4/6 exp 55 CC cost basis 53.79

Existing position or adjusted
FAS tomorrow 68 CC cost basis 67.20 Will let expire then open ATM on Monday. Still has 1.05 time value in it so being a little greedy sine the market makers are being greedy on the spreads today. Work any orders you are trying to get through.
UTX 29 DTE 125 put cost basis 124.51, watching this one closely and may convert to a #fuzzybear if it keeps going.
ANDV 22 DTE 95 put cost basis of 94.69
ERX 15 DTE 21/26 vertical debit at 25.41. If we drop below 26 will convert to #fuzzy
GM 15 DTE 39 CC cost basis 38.75. Problem child I will be rolling for weeks. Goal is to keep selling right at dropping cost basis just to let it clear out then moving on to another name. This one no longer trading well for #pietrades
NSC 22 DTE 131 put cost basis 129.95. This one will probably replace GM in the rotation.

I am starting to notice something with triple ETFs, they are easier to roll and manage than some individual names because the premiums are so high, especially on the call side. FAS can get about 3 ATM and because of the call skew selling ITM CC gives some downside protection. Don’t load the boat with them but getting 100% annualized returns just by selling weekly ITM CC #pietrade syle.

Hope everyone has a good week. My work has been so busy may only get to trade Thursdays for a while.

Rolling some deep in the money positions

I was undecided about whether to just book the losses on these or roll them. Decided to roll and get more time and premium.

Rolled $CELG Mar 16 115 put out to Sep 21 115 put for .60 credit

Rolled $RRC Mar 16 22 puts out to Aug 17 22 puts for .15 credit

Rolled $XLK Mar 16 60 straddle out to Apr 20 and inverting the strikes to 64 puts/60 calls for .35 credit. This position has been rolled since November with the strikes moving around. Total credit taken in is now 4.04 so if XLK finishes between the strikes this trade will pretty much break even. That’s unlikely though, with the stock at 69.85. My plan: If it starts to come in, roll opportunities should be better and I can probably un-invert the strikes. If it continues to run up, I’m going to throw the towel in and take the loss.

#fuzzybear

March 2 #Fuzzy Land: Self…

March 2 #Fuzzy Land: Self Assignment
Hi Bistro Friends! I did a #SelfAssignment on MSFT today, converting naked puts into an #AtomicFuzzy. I really like selling 3-4DTE naked puts on MSFT on dips. Been doing it for 18 months it seems, with assignment always assumed but never realized. Today finally was the first chance for assignment. So I chose to do self-assignment into an #atomicfuzzy.
Original trade: STO MSFT Mar 2 94 puts for .72 closed for 1.90, loss: $1118
Atomic Fuzzy: BTO MSFT Apr 92.5/92.5/90 x10 w/ 95/97.5 Call spread for -.80 x24
A move to 94 can get me back to even with a fraction of the risk vs. taking stock assignment. There’s a hockey-stick graph above that for gains.

Atomics have become a big focus for me. I partitioned funds last week for a “hedge fund” type approach to them. Timing may be off a bit…but serious testing is in progress. I haven’t said much about this, but I think there is a ton of edge in these trades….just working on proving it out now. Even though they have nice risk control, they still need a rising market for performance. So, just laying in wait now for that to happen. I was able to take a lot of profits on previous Atomics last week. The CLOSED fuzzy profit for the quarter is now $32,994. But, I’m under water on my newest fuzzies. I was able to use #FuzzyBear trades this week to gain a few k’s.

I had a bit of an epiphany this week regarding a previous post I did that showed we need 3-of-5 one standard deviation up moves before a rally can be trusted. I’ve been watching every single day for even a 1 standard deviation up move and we haven’t had it. I realized that the huge SD down moves tamp down any further SD’s until they age off the averaging. So there’s a coincidental relationship between what I thought was 3 1-SD up moves and the big SD down moves aging off. What I thought was a wait for 3 1SD up moves was probably actually a wait for the big SD to age off, which gives it time to retest lows while waiting. Anyway….if any of this makes sense to you, welcome to my brain. The big SD down moves age off my system in the next 2 trading days. Then there should be more realistic SD data to evaluate.
Have a great weekend everyone!

Sue

@fibwizard…you out there ?

What’s the crystal ball showing for the open? We get a bounce and then sell or she gonna tank from the start?

#fuzzybear

TLT

#SyntheticShortStock – Uncovering the #FuzzyBear ….

Bought to Close TLT JAN 26 2018 122.5 Puts @ .44 (sold for .30)

TLT

#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Using this pullback to get out of a few of my short calls that have been DITM for quite awhile. I’ve got my July #FuzzyBear to help protect to the downside now…

Bought to Close TLT FEB 16 2018 123.0 Calls @ 1.70 (sold for 2.45)

SPX

#RocketManHedge -My further out #FuzzyBear hedge at 2800 I can be more aggressive with now…

Rolled Wed 2785 put to Fri 2800 @ 4.25 credit (12.25 total received on it now)