Tag Archives: FuzzyBear

hcgdavis 9:15 am on Thursday, March 22, 2018
Tags: , FuzzyBear, ,   

#pietrades New trades FAS 3/30…

#pietrades

New trades
FAS 3/30 expiration 65 CC cost basis 63.65
FAS 3/30 exp. 64 CC cost basis 62.70
LNG 4/6 exp 55 CC cost basis 53.79

Existing position or adjusted
FAS tomorrow 68 CC cost basis 67.20 Will let expire then open ATM on Monday. Still has 1.05 time value in it so being a little greedy sine the market makers are being greedy on the spreads today. Work any orders you are trying to get through.
UTX 29 DTE 125 put cost basis 124.51, watching this one closely and may convert to a #fuzzybear if it keeps going.
ANDV 22 DTE 95 put cost basis of 94.69
ERX 15 DTE 21/26 vertical debit at 25.41. If we drop below 26 will convert to #fuzzy
GM 15 DTE 39 CC cost basis 38.75. Problem child I will be rolling for weeks. Goal is to keep selling right at dropping cost basis just to let it clear out then moving on to another name. This one no longer trading well for #pietrades
NSC 22 DTE 131 put cost basis 129.95. This one will probably replace GM in the rotation.

I am starting to notice something with triple ETFs, they are easier to roll and manage than some individual names because the premiums are so high, especially on the call side. FAS can get about 3 ATM and because of the call skew selling ITM CC gives some downside protection. Don’t load the boat with them but getting 100% annualized returns just by selling weekly ITM CC #pietrade syle.

Hope everyone has a good week. My work has been so busy may only get to trade Thursdays for a while.

Ramie 11:30 am on Thursday, March 15, 2018
Tags: FuzzyBear   

Rolling some deep in the money positions

I was undecided about whether to just book the losses on these or roll them. Decided to roll and get more time and premium.

Rolled $CELG Mar 16 115 put out to Sep 21 115 put for .60 credit

Rolled $RRC Mar 16 22 puts out to Aug 17 22 puts for .15 credit

Rolled $XLK Mar 16 60 straddle out to Apr 20 and inverting the strikes to 64 puts/60 calls for .35 credit. This position has been rolled since November with the strikes moving around. Total credit taken in is now 4.04 so if XLK finishes between the strikes this trade will pretty much break even. That’s unlikely though, with the stock at 69.85. My plan: If it starts to come in, roll opportunities should be better and I can probably un-invert the strikes. If it continues to run up, I’m going to throw the towel in and take the loss.

#fuzzybear

smasty 4:20 pm on Friday, March 2, 2018
Tags: , , FuzzyBear, SelfAssignment   

March 2 #Fuzzy Land: Self…

March 2 #Fuzzy Land: Self Assignment
Hi Bistro Friends! I did a #SelfAssignment on MSFT today, converting naked puts into an #AtomicFuzzy. I really like selling 3-4DTE naked puts on MSFT on dips. Been doing it for 18 months it seems, with assignment always assumed but never realized. Today finally was the first chance for assignment. So I chose to do self-assignment into an #atomicfuzzy.
Original trade: STO MSFT Mar 2 94 puts for .72 closed for 1.90, loss: $1118
Atomic Fuzzy: BTO MSFT Apr 92.5/92.5/90 x10 w/ 95/97.5 Call spread for -.80 x24
A move to 94 can get me back to even with a fraction of the risk vs. taking stock assignment. There’s a hockey-stick graph above that for gains.

Atomics have become a big focus for me. I partitioned funds last week for a “hedge fund” type approach to them. Timing may be off a bit…but serious testing is in progress. I haven’t said much about this, but I think there is a ton of edge in these trades….just working on proving it out now. Even though they have nice risk control, they still need a rising market for performance. So, just laying in wait now for that to happen. I was able to take a lot of profits on previous Atomics last week. The CLOSED fuzzy profit for the quarter is now $32,994. But, I’m under water on my newest fuzzies. I was able to use #FuzzyBear trades this week to gain a few k’s.

I had a bit of an epiphany this week regarding a previous post I did that showed we need 3-of-5 one standard deviation up moves before a rally can be trusted. I’ve been watching every single day for even a 1 standard deviation up move and we haven’t had it. I realized that the huge SD down moves tamp down any further SD’s until they age off the averaging. So there’s a coincidental relationship between what I thought was 3 1-SD up moves and the big SD down moves aging off. What I thought was a wait for 3 1SD up moves was probably actually a wait for the big SD to age off, which gives it time to retest lows while waiting. Anyway….if any of this makes sense to you, welcome to my brain. The big SD down moves age off my system in the next 2 trading days. Then there should be more realistic SD data to evaluate.
Have a great weekend everyone!

Sue

fuzzballl 12:55 pm on Sunday, February 4, 2018
Tags: FuzzyBear   

@fibwizard…you out there ?

What’s the crystal ball showing for the open? We get a bounce and then sell or she gonna tank from the start?

#fuzzybear

fuzzballl 8:30 am on Wednesday, January 24, 2018
Tags: FuzzyBear,   

TLT

#SyntheticShortStock – Uncovering the #FuzzyBear ….

Bought to Close TLT JAN 26 2018 122.5 Puts @ .44 (sold for .30)

fuzzballl 6:41 am on Tuesday, January 23, 2018
Tags: FuzzyBear,   

TLT

#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Using this pullback to get out of a few of my short calls that have been DITM for quite awhile. I’ve got my July #FuzzyBear to help protect to the downside now…

Bought to Close TLT FEB 16 2018 123.0 Calls @ 1.70 (sold for 2.45)

fuzzballl 7:25 am on Monday, January 22, 2018
Tags: FuzzyBear,   

SPX

#RocketManHedge -My further out #FuzzyBear hedge at 2800 I can be more aggressive with now…

Rolled Wed 2785 put to Fri 2800 @ 4.25 credit (12.25 total received on it now)

fuzzballl 6:48 am on Monday, January 22, 2018
Tags: FuzzyBear,   

TLT

#FuzzyBear – Covering my July FuzzyBear. I added this last week shorter term to protect my #PerpetualRollingStrangles that were getting too long. After the final numbers are in it looks like 20 cents a week through July to cover max loss. But…if TLT breaks long term support this could be a bigly winner.

Sold TLT JAN 26 2018 122.5 Puts @ .30

fuzzballl 8:34 am on Friday, January 19, 2018
Tags: FuzzyBear,   

TLT

#PerpetualRollingStrangles – I won’t go into the details but added some protection for the bond collapse everyone is talking about.

Rolled DITM puts out and down
Still sitting on short calls near ATM
Added a June #FuzzyBear for some protection since delta was getting too long

Leaving it unhedged for now. Still enough time to sell to cover max loss…

smasty 8:10 am on Wednesday, January 10, 2018
Tags: , FuzzyBear   

Jan 10 #fuzzy COST #FuzzyBear…

Jan 10 #fuzzy
COST #FuzzyBear was closed at the low this morning for $1370 net profit
QQQ 45 new QQQ Fuzzies (multiple accounts) Feb 162/162/159 @ between 1.60-1.70 currently unhedged

smasty 3:12 pm on Tuesday, December 26, 2017
Tags: , , FuzzyBear,   

12/26 Fuzzy land trades

NUE: I ended up closing this one for a net net loss of $340.00 How did I lose? It started off as a lovely trade. The round-one hedge expired with full profit. But the company then came out with lowered guidance and the underlying tanked over 3%, so I rolled the next week’s hedge down $2.00 to my synthetic line. We then saw a literal whipsaw correction which left me chasing each week with debit rolls to avoid assignment on my hedge, and ex-div is Thursday. Continuing debit rolls to get me out of assignment territory on the short calls would leave me with protective puts $15.00 ($15,000) away with no “bank” due to debit rolls. To me, chasing only makes sense when you know the underlying is going to stay bid, and to me a $340 loss on a 10-lot is pretty darn close to a scratch. I’d rather do a reset on this or another, vs. having $15K risk on a less-than-$100 stock.

AAPL: This takes the place of NUE. BTO Apr 170/170/160 for 5.27 debit, STO Jan 5 172.5 call for 1.32 cr

QQQ: BTC Dec 29 159c for .03, STO Jan 5 158 c for .47

CMCSA: I did a search on SP500 stocks with a weekly ATR of 2 or less, looking for stocks with decent premium for quick core debit coverage, but stocks that stay relatively stable with price movement. I’m just still playing around with finding the perfect candidates for #fuzzies. Take JPM for example…seems to stay in a very nice range for collecting that premium every single week. So anyway, CMCSA came up on the list, boring maybe, we’ll see how it works. BTO Apr 40/40/35 for 1.38 debit, STO Jan 5 41 call for .56.

BABA: Caught some bullish #UOA on this today, and has lovely weekly premium. Chart technicals not so great. But decided to do a 1/2 size fuzzy. Apr 170/170/160 for 9.43 debit (there’s a few bucks intrinsic in this), Jan 5 175 c for 1.93 cr.
I’ll do another full recap this Friday with every open position, net collection and debit recovery.

#fuzzy, #fuzzybear

hcgdavis 10:11 am on Friday, December 22, 2017
Tags: FuzzyBear,   

#spycraft STO Jan 12 261/257…

#spycraft

STO Jan 12 261/257 and 271.5/275 IC for 0.19 and 0.29. Week 2 of the ladder. For others following, last week is showing a $130 profit, about what I had targeted weekly. You can either take it off or leave it for the long weekend decay. I am leaving on and will probably roll it next week.

Also rolled GILD Jan 5 76 put to feb 2 for 0.92 credit. Sold at 2.85 as previous roll/
Rolled SWKS Jan 5 102 put to Jan 19 for 1.0 credit. Sold for 4.75 off previous roll.

Rolled SVXY expiring tomorrow out to Feb 16 for 4.52-4.54credit. Sold for 2.58.

Rolled TQQQ 120 today to Jan. 26 for 1.2 credit. Sold for 2.23

Assigned early on EEM Jan 19 40 CC, weird I did not get an email confirmation, was just checking accounts and noticed they were gone. Small IRA so sold a Jan 19 SVXY 50 put at 6.55.

Merry Christmas and Happy New year (or Hanakuh) to all my trading friends at the bistro and thanks for all the ideas! Best trading year ever and I suspect next year will be even better as we all figure out the best ways to trade together.

#fuzzybear

smasty 3:07 pm on Tuesday, December 19, 2017
Tags: , , FuzzyBear, ,   

Fuzzy Land and “Fade Muse”

Right now I have on 12 #Fuzzies and the total amount of hedge/income premium that is sold and pending collection is $11,480 (spread mostly between this week and next week). Here’s why I love Bull Fuzzies:
–Less risk than a covered call (due to protection)
–Way less buying power than a covered call
–Same benefits of a covered call (except dividends)
–Positive Vega/Positive Theta (a covered call doesn’t have positive Vega)
–Better design than many diagonals I see
–When opened using 90-120 DTE but closed before 45DTE I should be able to maintain a really good chunk of the protective put value that would be exposed to theta decay

I know you know all this. Here’s where it gets interesting, and where I expect to now become your “Fade Muse”

i closed the #fuzzybear today. for a decent loss. Listen I hated this trade. I timed it all wrong. I put it on at the bottom of a swing vs. the top. I sized it too big for SPX. I made it a Feb trade so big theta decay was going to start soon on the long put. I’ve realized I like fuzzy setups (long or short) that cover the trade debit in 4 weeks or less, and SPX doesn’t do that. I’ve been battling it for this whole up move. Hedges can’t keep up with it. It’s beyond effective hedge range now. I ran every scenario and I just didn’t see a way out short of a big market crash, all the while theta was burning away. I was running scenarios in my head at night for saving the trade. I’ve been watching this week for a VIX upside warning to hit today (it didn’t). I can see some liquidation breaks hitting the market, but drivers are too strong for a big hit I think. Of course anything can happen, but I don’t want big (BIG) bets on market crashes in my portfolio. Today’s dip gave me the opp I needed to wipe it clean and wait for a better setup in the future.

Paid my 4Q taxes today, so just took the hit on it today. When all the laundry was washed and dried and put away it was exactly a $14K hit (net of premium collected). Luckily all the other fuzzies have been financing that so my account balance has been running in place.

#fuzzy, #spycraft, #vxxgame

smasty 1:00 pm on Monday, December 18, 2017
Tags: , , FuzzyBear   

12/18 Day Done

11. Added an RCL #Fuzzy Mar 125/125/115 for 3.59 and Dec 29 128 short calls for 1.00
12. Added CSX #Fuzzy May 52.5/52.5/46 for 2.24 and Dec 29 54 short calls for .60
13. Scratched the SPX #bitty in the #FuzzyBear account because this market is nuts and wanted to re-establish as much negative delta as I can
14. LMT #Fuzzy Closed it out! These are not meant to be day-traded, but I put it on at the low and quickly got $773 net profit (20%), so closed it to take off risk. A lot of slippage when these are day-traded.
15. 2 short /NQ for overnight

smasty 9:34 am on Monday, December 18, 2017
Tags: , , , FuzzyBear,   

12/18 trades

1. DHI (neutral/short skewed IC) needed a little defense, so rolled the short calls from 50 to 52. New upside break even is 53.10.
2. SPX stopped out of the qty 1 BECS 2755/2730, closed for 3.85
3. SPX #FuzzyBear BTC 2625 put hedge for .55 (sold at 3.00) for $2450 profit. STO Dec 27 2625 for .75. New net number: Total profit $5898, Debit basis: 33.50. Also added a Dec 26 #Bitty (in 2 accounts) 2680/2675 for .85 (not included in net numbers).
4. LMT new #Fuzzy on down bar today: Mar 320/320/310 for 6.13, sold Dec 22 322.5c for 1.14, already up nicely.
5. TXN #BUPS hit over 50% target for $470 profit
6. FLIR #ShortPuts hit over 50% target for $700 profit
7. RCL STO #BUPS Jan 123/120 for .73 cr
8. DWDP This is a fun one, I opened a #Fuzzy on this last week but delayed buying protection for a 1% up move, I had an order queued for the move and it hit today, so my protection is cheap cheap at .40 (mar 62.5p)
9. TWTR Rather than roll a DITM Fuzzy I closed the whole thing for $440 profit
10. FAS New #Fuzzy in 2 accounts, I really like the setup. Apr 70/70/60 for 2.08, Dec 22 71c for -.48

smasty 9:19 am on Friday, December 15, 2017
Tags: , , FuzzyBear, ,   

12/15 Trades

MNST: STC tight debit spread, cutting it early. BTO @ .50 STC @ .65 for $150
MSFT: I’m always trying to build a stock portfolio w/ MSFT by selling #ShortPuts but I never get assignment. I saw a chance yesterday to sell 1DTE puts for .49, closed this morning for .02 for $470
AFL: Closed a January directional butterfly. When I opened the fly I thought “this is dumb, you’ll never get more than $100” Closed today for $170 profit
COT: Remember this spec trade? Based on upcoming 13f filings, it will go out at full loss -378.00. No more spec trades for me…time to remember my powerhouse trades and renew discipline for what works.
SPX Campaign: I happen to have an account with zero positions this morning, so starting a test of the #SPXCampaign process, I followed Jeff’s trade, but with a onesie. Jan 12 2730/2755 1.50 cr
#Bitties: Had 3 SPX bitties close for 30 contracts, total $1200 profit. One of them (already accounted for in the #FuzzyBear post) was only on for a day, I used the AS-BB indicator for timing placement. I’m currently out of index bitties, would like to see a new oscillator low before placing new ones.

Green open positions: ABBV, ADS, CELG, FLIR, IWM, JPM, LMT, MSFT, NTNX, SPY, TWTR, TXN
Red open positions: AOBC, DHI, DWDP, LKQ, MU, NUE, QQQ, SHAK, ULTA

I have very high cash balances right now, only small % is at work.

I’m probably done trading today, got to do the dreaded post office run. Our post office here is like a 3rd world country. 200 people in line and one person working. I hope everyone has a restful safe weekend. Me? I love a good whiskey in front of the fire on Friday afternoons.

#bitty

smasty 7:14 am on Friday, December 15, 2017
Tags: , FuzzyBear   

Fuzzy Rolls

LMT #Fuzzy from just 8 days ago was up over $2,000 net today. Rather than roll, I decided to close it all and look for a new opp to reset.
CELG I rolled yesterday locking in $750 for the week and selling another 1.00 for next week, my “Stage One” net debit is now only $0.63.
JPM I rolled on Wed before FOMC locking in $550 for the week and selling .95 for next week. My “Stage One” net debit is now only $1.04
NUE got hit with some bad news this week on guidance, took the stock down yesterday but just beyond the synthetic level. Premium is slow to come out of the short calls today, in latter half of the day I will place new position for next week and just let this week expire. That will bring in $560 for the week.
IWM: Opened yesterday, no roll today
TWTR: Up nicely, but no roll for this week
SPX: #FuzzyBear Rolled earlier this week. I have realized income of $7100 on this in just 8 days. Stage One has gone from $40 to $30. Much more to go! Like @fuzzballl said earlier this week…just keep chipping away at it.

I’m looking at #Fuzzy debit recovery in two stages, Stage One is the trade debit recovery, then Stage Two is the spread risk recovery.

hcgdavis 9:15 am on Thursday, December 14, 2017
Tags: FuzzyBear   

Thurs. trades. My usual day…

Thurs. trades. My usual day off so usually my biggest trading day.

Lots of recovery with GILD, WDC and SWKS so the losses finally exceeded the theta this week ($3321 for the week so not as bad as it could have been and mostly contained to 1 account).

GILD Rolled 1 DTE 77.5 put to Jan 19 for 1.03 credit. Sold for 5.4 off previous rolls
GILD Rolled 8DTE 78 put to 43 DTE 78 put for 0.72 credit, sold for 7.88 off previous rolls.

SWKS BTO 6 Jan 2020 100 puts for 21.70 to cover the short 102 and 104 puts. Did not really want to do this, but margin call was getting close and this allows me to stay in some other trades that are/will be profitable. Now have 108 weeks to sell against it #fuzzybear style.

BTC SVXY 100 put tomorrow for 0.09, sold for 1.47. Tried to roll it but tradestation seems to be having a few order issues today. Then it would not let me sell next cycle, they do not update real time like TOS. Try again tomorrow.

SVXY rolls
105 put tomorrow out to 22 DTE for 1.58 credit. Sold for 4.45
STO Jan 26 70 put for 0.92
Next week 80 put rolled to Jan for 1.00 and sold for 1.35
105 tomorrow rolled 15 DTE for 0.9 credit. Sold for 4.45

SWKS trying to put in a double bottom at major support level.

2017-12-01-TOS_CHARTS

Now going to burn off the burrito lunch on a mt bike. Have a good rest of the week!

fuzzballl 8:48 am on Thursday, December 14, 2017
Tags: FuzzyBear,   

SPX

#RocketManHedge #FuzzyBear – This is my first one that expires in Jan. Gradually scaling back to slightly more conservative selling. Moving this from next Monday to Friday…

Bought to Close SPX DEC 18 2017 2625.0 Put @ .50 (sold for 5.40)
Sold SPX DEC 22 2017 2640.0 Put @ 3.70

Original position sitting at max loss of 50 points. Total premium received is now 57.70 with another month to run…

smasty 1:28 pm on Wednesday, December 13, 2017
Tags: FuzzyBear   

Day Done

Here’s the rest of my trades today:
1. I used the AS-BB indicator to scalp /ES, /NQ, /YM multiple times today, for a net of $625 and no losses. I trade futures really teensy, but love this indicator for keeping me in when I would normally bail.
2 ETFC closed the contrarian short for the green-side-of-scratch
3. DLTR same as ETFC
4. SPX #FuzzyBear I’m kind of running in place with this trade on. I’m making nice money on other positions which are financing the move against me with this position. I’m using the AS-BB indicator to leg in/out on the short put hedge, which got me an extra $300 today in debit reduction. As mentioned before I took off 1 of 10 of my short calls in the synthetic to give me some allowance to the upside. I’m at about -120 deltas. Trying really hard to not over-correct on this.
5. AAPL closed my defended put spread that didn’t need defending. 1/2 of max loss, -$225.00

Profitable open positions: ABBV, ADSK, AFL, CELG, DHI, FLIR, JPM (really smart that I rolled this fuzzy yesterday), LMT, MNST, MSFT, NTNX (picked up 400 shares yesterday), NUE, QQQ, RCII, SPX (bitty, not fuzzy), SPY, TXN
Losing open positions: AOBC, COT, DWDP, LKQ, MU, SHAK, ULTA, SPX Fuzzy

Trying to slow it down now for the rest of the year, only take new positions if really compelling.

smasty 8:49 am on Wednesday, December 13, 2017
Tags: , , FuzzyBear,   

DWDP

@vxxkelly did a recent trade on this and it reminded me it’s been on my watch list. There’s a lot of block trades on it today, and some calls being bought. So I did an unprotected #Fuzzy . I did a Mar 70/70 synthetic and sold Dec 22 71.5. I will add protection after an up move, for a better price. In a squeeze right now.
Didn’t capture my trades from yesterday, but a couple highlights:
1. Rolled the JPM Fuzzy hedge into strength to collect more on the next week
2. MAR #JadeLizard closed for 50% target
3. My SPX #FuzzyBear is troublesome. I didn’t set it with correct timing, so now I’m doing battle. I took off one short call on the synthetic turning it into a back ratio like @hcgdavis mentioned yesterday. I’m also using the AS-BB indicator for legging in and out of the hedge puts to get a few extra $$ on it.
#Fuzzies need rolls as Friday approaches: LMT, CELG, NUE. I’ve got substantial net profit on LMT so may close it all rather than roll.

fuzzballl 7:34 am on Tuesday, December 12, 2017
Tags: FuzzyBear, ,   

SPX hedge through March

With my current #RocketManHedge looking like it has a good chance of turning a decent profit ( in spite of moving against me from almost the first day) I’m adding another out about 90 days. This one is slightly more expensive since I’m setting up a little above the market but giving it a couple extra weeks to make up the difference.

#SyntheticShort -A little hedge out through March expiration…

Synthetic short stock with a protective call. 49.00 debit with max loss of 54.00:

Sold SPX MAR 16 2018 2670.0 Call @ 46.23
Bought SPX MAR 16 2018 2670.0 Put @ 51.97
Bought SPX MAR 16 2018 2675.0 Call @ 43.26

Need to collect 4.15 per week to cover the max loss so:

Sold SPX DEC 18 2017 2650.0 Put @ 5.40

Selling Monday and then looking to double up on the following Friday…

#fuzzybear