Question about Space Trip hedge (STT)


I was modeling the STT trade in TOS and everything looks fine until I introduce IV increase. I would expect IV to increase in a case of a 10+% sell-off. With the IV increase of 10 points, the value of the STT is cut in half. This is for a well aged position, so a new position would be a loser anyway. This does not look like a good hedge.

I have noticed that presentations about STT definitely ignore ( if not refuse) to include the IV increase. I watched a number of them and every time all modeling is done without taking IV into consideration.

Am I missing something in the TOS model?



STO Apr 5 275/277.5 BeCS $.38


SPX 1dte IC

Legging into an SPX Jan11 IC. Sold SPX Jan11 2520/2515 pcs @.30 x6. Will sell CCS to complete IC on 5-min Tide reversal with upper study set to 0.5 and lower 0.25.
Update: Sold Jan11 2630/2635 call credit spread @.25 x6 to complete the IC based on 5-min Tide short signal.
Total credit $330 on the trade.


SPX 7dte IC ladder strategy

Sold SPX Jan18 IC 2635/2640/2480/2475 CALL/PUT @1.30 x2



SPX 1dte IC expired

SPX Jan9 2640/2635/2495/2490 IC expired worthless. Sold 5 contracts yesterday for $275 credit total.

SPX 1-dte IC

Sold SPX Jan9 2635/2640 BeCS @ .25 x5. Will buy bull put spread later today when conditions look a little better to do so.
Sold SPX Jan9 2495/2490 BuPS @ .30 x5 to complete the IC.
Defense plan: use @hcgdavis tactic to buy back 2 or 3 of the shorts to create a ratio should either of these credit spreads get in trouble.



BTO Oct 5 87/85 BePS .99 #in-out


STO Sept 21 77/75 BePS $1.01 #In-Out #Bitty
STC GTC 1.65 DK Special


BTO Sept 21 55/53 BePS .70 in-out TheoTrade my take on it. #Bitty

STC 1.10 GTC


STO Aug 31 1902.5/1900 BuPS .29 #bitty


STO Aug 31 1230/1227.5 BuPS .35 #bitty


BTO Aug 17 33/31 BePS .96 #bitty put in order to close for 1.35 GTC

Expiration and Trades

$ROKU Stock taken away at 47.50 Basis 42.60
$TQQQ 60 puts
$AMZN 1600/1620 BUPS
$SPX 2625/2650 BUPS Thank you @jeffcp66
$WYNN 167.50/172.50 Lost Max

Catching up on posting
$GOOGL STO 7/23 1105/1115 BUPS at .95
$AVGO STO 8/17 195/210 BUPS at 4.85
$ IQ STO 8/17 35 put at 5.00
$IQ STO 7/20 30 put at .62
$TNDM BTC 7/20 17.5 calls at .10 STO at 1.40

$SPX STO 7/25 2725/2750 BUPS at 2.25 Thank you @jeffcp66

$IQ BTO 8/17 35 calls at 3.60

Closed Early
$TSLA BTC 7/20 270/280 BUPS at 80% of max profit Thank you @ramie77

#shortcallspreads #bitty DOCU Sold July…

#shortcallspreads #bitty DOCU
Sold July 20, 55/57.50 for .60 to go along with the a little too early 55 put sold this week, stock at 52.40


STO Jul 13 1140/1137.5 BuPS .40 #Bitty


STO Jul 13 1677.5/1675 BuPS .25 #Bitty


BTO Jul 13 1110/1112.50 Call spread 1.64 #supercharger #Bitty


STO Jul 6 1665.0/1662.5 BuPS .50 #Bitty Added to position


STO Jul 6 372.5/370.00 BuPS .39 #bitty

Maiden Itty Bitty Closed Early / Rolled FB LEAPS Out

$NFLX STC 6/22/ 350/355 BUCS at 4.83 BTO yesterday at 4.05 Thank you MamaCash

$FB STC 1/18/2019 175 call @ 30.42 and BTO 1/18/2019 190 call at 20.42


STO Jun 15 BuPS 172.5/170.0 .35 #Bitty
Wiz buying


BTO Jul 20 176/174 Put spread .81 #Bitty


STO Jun 22 87.5/85 BuPS .31 #Bitty
Thx hcgdavis


STO Jun 8 1625/1622.5 BuPS .37 2x #Bitty


BTO DIM Jun 8 1617.50/1620.00 2.17 #Bitty


STO Jun 8 345/342.50 .26 BuPS #bitty


BTO Jul 13 272/270 Puts .67 TT Trade #Bitty
Looking for 50% profit in/out


BTO Jul 20 10/13 Calls 1.00 Bad news day, looking for in/out bounce #Bitty


STC 103/101 BePS bought 5-25 for .93 sold for 1.31 #Bitty


STO Jun 1 342.5/340.0 BuPS .28 #Bitty


STO Jun 15 200/202.50 BeCS .59 #Bitty


BTO Jun 29 103/101 Put BePS .93 #Bitty


STO Jun 1 325.00/322.50 BuPS .25 #Bitty


STO Jun 1 1552.5/1550.00 BuPS .36 #Bitty 2x


BTO Jun 28 49.50/51.50 Calls .84 #Bitty


BTO Jun 8 610.612.5 BuCS 1.40 #Bitty Looking for a bounce


BTO DIA Jun 29 251/249 Puts .78 #Bitty
Put order in to close at 50% profit-#in/out
Cherry Bomb


STO May 25 315.00/312.50 BuPS .20 #Bitty


STO May 25 1545/1542.50 BuPS .30


STC Deep in The Money May 25 310.312.50 bought 5-17 for 2.15 closed this AM 2.45 #Bitty


STO May 25 1550/1547.50 Puts .60 #Bitty

#shortputspread #bitty ANET Bought May…

#shortputspread #bitty ANET

Bought May 18, 230/240 for .30, sold May 10 for .95

#shortputspread #bitty ANET Sold May…

#shortputspread #bitty ANET
Sold May 18, 230/240 for .75


STC May 18 99/100 call spread paid .53 5/9 .96 #Bitty profit


BTO May 25 247.50/250.00 Calls 1.30 earnings 5/31 usually runs up into earnings.


BTO May 25 188.50/190.00 Calls 1.25 #Bitty


BTO May 18 95/92.50 Puts .41 #Bitty
Another sell from Shadow Trader


BTO IWM May 18 160/157 Puts .71 looking for a pull back per ShadowTrader

ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory – IWM – Short the Stock…


STO May 18 1565/1562.50 BuPS .34 #Bitty


STO May 11 BePS 300/297.50 2x 1@ .30 & .39 #Bitty


STO SPY Apr 27 256/253 Puts .31 #Bitty

AZO Earnings

#Earnings -Thanks @Jeff ….I’m in.

Sold AZO MAR 2 2018 660.0/790.0 Strangle @ 6.16



STO Feb 23 120/121 BeCS .13


STO Feb 7 2645/2640 .15 #bitty


STO Feb 9 2645/2640 .20 #Bitty


STO Feb 9 KSS 65/64 .17 #Bitty


STO NFLX Feb 2 265/262.5 .28 #Bitty
BTO TSEM 37/37/35 .36 #Fuzzy

AAPL add

#Earnings #ShortPuts Added another $AAPL Feb 2nd 175 put for 5.20. The bet is we raise into and after earnings. But if not, I’m okay rolling or taking some stock at 170 cost basis.

#bitty, #shortcallspreads

STO LNG Feb 2 55/53…

STO LNG Feb 2 55/53 BuPS .16 #Bitty

STO KSS Feb 2 65/63…

STO KSS Feb 2 65/63 .26 #Bitty

STO LNG Jan 26 54/53…

STO LNG Jan 26 54/53 BuPS .15 #Bitty

#shortputspread #bitty FB After FB…

#shortputspread #bitty FB

After FB dropped the other day I sold a Jan. 19 170/175, looked good yesterday, flirting with 176 now, decided to take the small loss

#bitty FB Jan. 19 170/175…

#bitty FB
Jan. 19 170/175 BuPS for .60

Jan 4 #Fuzzy All Fuzzies…

Jan 4 #Fuzzy
All Fuzzies are managed for the week and new ones added, including a new category I call “Lazy River Fuzzies.” I mentioned a couple weeks ago that I was scanning stocks with a weekly ATR of less than 2 in an effort to avoid a lot of the debit roll/chasing drama. My single test, CMCSA, has worked great, so added a second one today, MNST. The Lazy Rivers are cheaper to put on, have less hedge premium (lower volatility), but hopefully are more “set and forget.” I did a successful round of SPY naked put #Bitty this week….but you know…..I think fuzzies are better than bitties, so instead of setting new SPY Bitties, I have set SPY Fuzzies in all my accounts.
1. CSX Closed Down for net $1300…lots of debit rolls on this and earnings next week. It was a great #fallingknife suggestion
2. LMT-1 Debit Roll BTC Jan 5 322.5 for 2.15 STO Jan 18 325 c for 2.51
3. LMT-2 ditto
4. JPM Closed Down for net $3230.00. This was my very first Fuzzy! Earnings next week. Will reset after earnings release.
5. IWM BTC Jan 5 154 c for .96, STO Jan 12 155 c for .89
6. CMCSA (Lazy River) BTC Jan 5 41 c for .07, STO Jan 12 40.5c for .45
7. MCD BTC Jan 5 172.5 c for 1.50, STO Jan 19 175 c for 1.22
New Fuzzies:
1. EXAS (earlier this week) Apr 50/50/45 for 6.15 Jan 12 55 c -1.35 (ITM now)
2. SPY 1, 2, 3, 4 Jun 272/272/268 7.00 Jan 12 273 -.61 (going tighter on these puts)
3. MNST (Lazy River) Jun 60/60/55 5.13 Jan 12 64c -.50

I’ll do a stats recap tomorrow. A huge amount of fuzzies this week were debit rolls, so basis reduction is moving down ever so slowly, but unrealized profits with the purchase of upside allowance had added up nicely.

12/18 Day Done

11. Added an RCL #Fuzzy Mar 125/125/115 for 3.59 and Dec 29 128 short calls for 1.00
12. Added CSX #Fuzzy May 52.5/52.5/46 for 2.24 and Dec 29 54 short calls for .60
13. Scratched the SPX #bitty in the #FuzzyBear account because this market is nuts and wanted to re-establish as much negative delta as I can
14. LMT #Fuzzy Closed it out! These are not meant to be day-traded, but I put it on at the low and quickly got $773 net profit (20%), so closed it to take off risk. A lot of slippage when these are day-traded.
15. 2 short /NQ for overnight

12/18 trades

1. DHI (neutral/short skewed IC) needed a little defense, so rolled the short calls from 50 to 52. New upside break even is 53.10.
2. SPX stopped out of the qty 1 BECS 2755/2730, closed for 3.85
3. SPX #FuzzyBear BTC 2625 put hedge for .55 (sold at 3.00) for $2450 profit. STO Dec 27 2625 for .75. New net number: Total profit $5898, Debit basis: 33.50. Also added a Dec 26 #Bitty (in 2 accounts) 2680/2675 for .85 (not included in net numbers).
4. LMT new #Fuzzy on down bar today: Mar 320/320/310 for 6.13, sold Dec 22 322.5c for 1.14, already up nicely.
5. TXN #BUPS hit over 50% target for $470 profit
6. FLIR #ShortPuts hit over 50% target for $700 profit
7. RCL STO #BUPS Jan 123/120 for .73 cr
8. DWDP This is a fun one, I opened a #Fuzzy on this last week but delayed buying protection for a 1% up move, I had an order queued for the move and it hit today, so my protection is cheap cheap at .40 (mar 62.5p)
9. TWTR Rather than roll a DITM Fuzzy I closed the whole thing for $440 profit
10. FAS New #Fuzzy in 2 accounts, I really like the setup. Apr 70/70/60 for 2.08, Dec 22 71c for -.48

12/15 Trades

MNST: STC tight debit spread, cutting it early. BTO @ .50 STC @ .65 for $150
MSFT: I’m always trying to build a stock portfolio w/ MSFT by selling #ShortPuts but I never get assignment. I saw a chance yesterday to sell 1DTE puts for .49, closed this morning for .02 for $470
AFL: Closed a January directional butterfly. When I opened the fly I thought “this is dumb, you’ll never get more than $100” Closed today for $170 profit
COT: Remember this spec trade? Based on upcoming 13f filings, it will go out at full loss -378.00. No more spec trades for me…time to remember my powerhouse trades and renew discipline for what works.
SPX Campaign: I happen to have an account with zero positions this morning, so starting a test of the #SPXCampaign process, I followed Jeff’s trade, but with a onesie. Jan 12 2730/2755 1.50 cr
#Bitties: Had 3 SPX bitties close for 30 contracts, total $1200 profit. One of them (already accounted for in the #FuzzyBear post) was only on for a day, I used the AS-BB indicator for timing placement. I’m currently out of index bitties, would like to see a new oscillator low before placing new ones.

Green open positions: ABBV, ADS, CELG, FLIR, IWM, JPM, LMT, MSFT, NTNX, SPY, TWTR, TXN
Red open positions: AOBC, DHI, DWDP, LKQ, MU, NUE, QQQ, SHAK, ULTA

I have very high cash balances right now, only small % is at work.

I’m probably done trading today, got to do the dreaded post office run. Our post office here is like a 3rd world country. 200 people in line and one person working. I hope everyone has a restful safe weekend. Me? I love a good whiskey in front of the fire on Friday afternoons.


12/11 Trades

Looks like it was a quiet day for a lot of people here.
1. May I please call these “Fuzzy” trades? I love them and I’m doing a lot of them (#SyntheticStock Diagonals w/ protection and hedge income—From now on known as #Fuzzies. To me, the Fuzzies have two stages, stage one is recovering the net debit of the trade; Stage 2 is recovery of the spread risk. I spent time this weekend looking at and scoring candidates. The “score” is basically the number of weeks of hedge income that it takes to accomplish Stage 1. The fewer the number of weeks, the lower the score. I’m looking for Fuzzies with a score of less than 5, less than 4 even better. I have a picture in my head of having a portfolio of 10 Fuzzies, each with $10 spread risk, bringing in 10-15K a week in income. So I’m testing these aggressively.

I have a TOS scan for finding high-return covered calls and puts, and it turns out it’s a good scan for finding Fuzzy candidates with low scores. Here’s the scan

So back to Trade #1: CELG. I happened to catch a big bullish fund order for a Jan risk reversal, so a CELG #Fuzzy was my first trade of the day: Mar 110c/-110p/+100p, Dec 15 110 c. Net debit: 1.38 with a “Score” of approx 2.38 (2.38 weeks to cover the core debit)
2. Oh…here’s a nod to @hcgdavis for the Alpha Shark indicator. Got it. Love it. So scalped a bunch of /NQ today while taking it for a test run. Ended up +$305 on small-lot scalps. Enough to pay for the indicator 🙂
3. NTES. Now this was a franken-trade. It started as one 10-lot #butterfly. As it dropped added another 10-lot butterfly. Last week added a 3rd 10-lot butterfly. Was finally able to close it all out today for a $157 loss. Believe me, I’m happy with that!
4. #Bitties Closed! SPX x 20 lot, NDX x 10 lot. Got 50% target on all of them. The SPX bitties were 7DTE, so was happy to close them asap given the gamma risk. Net profit $1150.
5. Reset 17DTE SPX #Bitties. The Dec 27 2630/2625 for .85 cr x 20
6. NTNX I’ve been holding 703 shares, took 603 off for about $950 profit. Some day they’ll be acquired so I’ll always keep a hundred on. Great stock for swing trading, so will load back up on any dip. My max size position is 3000 shares, but I never seem to get the opp to add that many on.
7. QQQ #JadeLizard closed for 50% profit, this week’s expiration
8. SPY 266/267 #BuCS closed for 90% profit. This was bought based on #UOA (unusual option activity). SPY trades massive volume in fund flow, obviously—but it’s almost all put hedges. Every once in awhile a big bullish trade hits the tape, and those are ones for my attention.
9. NUE Closed a BuCS for 50% profit, this is another one that was bought on #UOA
10. NUE Opened a #Fuzzy Apr 60/60/50 for 1.87 core debit, Dec 15 62 call short for .56, Score is 3.3. There was a lot of bullish option flow on this today….all the way up to the 70 call line.
11 NUE spec trade based on #UOA bought 100 Jan 70 calls for .16, just looking for .21 as my target
12 MU #EarningsRunUp added two more calls to the trade from last week. Looking for 30% profit on these and must close before earnings announcement.
13 AMC #UOA There was unusual activity on AMC right before the other cinema merger happened last week. Turns out AMC confirms they’ve been approached too, regarding investment options. I’m glad I sold a few puts when I saw the fund flow. Netted 50%, $370.00 on a 10-lot
14. MSFT I like to layer on a lot of different MSFT trades. I love what they’re doing with Azure. However I saw a lot of January put buying today on MSFT, so I cut a trade short (#BuCS) for 28% profit vs. the 50% I was looking for. I still have on a MSFT #Butterfly that I’m watching closely. 80/85/90 for Feb.
15. ALGN This is the last of my trades from the tech crash. I defended it resulting in half what the max loss would have been. All closed now for $1150 loss. Classic case of thinking it would come back. Could have been handled better, but could have been handled much worse. I wouldn’t mind resetting with a #bitty or #PutRatioSpread the problem is that it’s just really thin. The Market Makers are not the worst I’ve dealt with (ISRG, KORS, ULTA are worse) but it’s still a struggle.
16. TWTR Opened a #Fuzzy in a 401K. I again saw some large bullish fund flow on TWTR and it had a good score. Mar 22/22/18 core for .78, sold Dec 22.5 call for .46, score is roughly 2. Not sure how this one will work out, but I’m still developing the perfect candidate profile for the Fuzzies.

@fuzzballl I hope you are ok being the namesake on these trades. It’s cute!

#bitty first bitty btc qqq…

first bitty
btc qqq 149.50\140 put@ .39,.40 had sto @ .87 opened five days ago.

50% ish

thanks sue

12/8 Happy Friday

1. NVDA: Fully closed the #JadeLizard sold for 3.62, partial cover at 1.62 yesterday, rest covered today at 1.35
2. BA: Closed the contrarian BePS, closed for .66 shy of full loss. Prob of touch is still high enough I should have held, but it’s just continuing to be a train.
3. LRCX: Closed the #PutRatioSpread for over 50% gain, 1.45, $1555.00. Recovery mission on big loss last week.
4. MSFT: #Bitty closed for 50%, this was Jan 80/75 BuPS for .82 cr, covered .41
5. SPX : I’m kind of thinking we see a strong market into next week’s expiration, so rolled the short puts on the #RocketManHedge from 2605 to 2625. Realized $2820 in the roll.
6. SPY: Opened #SpikedLizard for January. Part 1: 264/265/267 for 3.74 cr Part 2 (spike) 260/253 ratio put spread for .05. No upside risk, downside BE is 253 due to the spike. Need SPY price above $260 for meaningful profit. 50% target. I’d like to ladder these every 2 weeks.
7. SPX: Opened 7DTE #Bitty I said I didn’t want to do 7DTE Bitties any more, but betting we see an upside into next week’s expiration. Of course I could be all wrong. Got more credit than usual on these. Dec 15 2630/2625 BuPS for average price of .875 credit, 50% target
8. TXN: Opened BuPS for January 97.5/95 for .72, 50% target
9. TJX: Continued defense. Sold Dec 15 calls to adjust deltas
10. MU: Opened #EarningsRunUp trade based on historical backtesting. Partial position. Dec 22 47.5 call for 1.04.
11. PIR: Closed #EarningsRunUp trade for 28% profit, bought at .35, sold at .45
12. ABBV: Opened #BuPS for January 92.5/90 for .56, target 50%
13. FLIR: Opened #SyntheticCoveredCall for January 47 puts for 1.40, very high historical win rate on short puts for this company
14. BBY: Closed the contrarian BePS for loss, salvaging .60 from max loss
15. AAPL: I already have a BuPS on for next week, used this little upswing today to sell calls converting it to an #IronButterfly.

Opening trades:

SPX: #rocketmanhedge thank you @fuzzballl Feb +2635 put, -2635c, +2640c for 40.15 net, -Dec 2605p for $5.40, Basis = 34.62.
COT: Last month there was a day with 4 large block trades totaling over 4 million in shares. It sparked a lot of call activity. I’ve been waiting for closer to 13f releases for Dec to see if call activity picks up again, it sure did today, so I have a little spec play on for COT for next week. 17.5 calls for .34
MAR: #JadeLizard for next week Dec -126p/-130c/+132 c for 1.21 net cr, 50% target
TJX: Added #BECS to #BUPS to convert to iron fly for defense

Closing Trades:
BA #Bitty Closed at 50% target, sold at .50, bought at .25
TTWO #BUCS Bought 2.65 sold 3.10 net .45/contract
FB #shortputs covered for 50% Sold at 1.10, covered at .55
NVDA #JadeLizard from last week is beginning to cover for 50% Sold 185/205/207.5 for 3.62, cover order is partially filled at 1.62

Dec 6th Trades

Pretty quiet trading day for me, thanks again for everyone’s good ideas:

1. Took the HD BePS profit I was expecting this morning (Bought 1.09, sold 1.59)
2. Bought PIR long calls for Earnings run up (closes 1 day before earnings), target 40%
3. SHAK BePS for retracement from extreme up move, .84 debit, target 50%, trade is green
4. BA BePS for retracement from extreme up move, 1.21 debit, 50% target, trade is red
5. ADSK #ShortPuts for Mar, thank you for the idea @jsd501
6. I’m keeping 2 short /ES contracts hedged with short puts, rolled short puts to next week for additional credit. This “Z” contract will run out pretty soon.
7. CVX closed BuCS for 50% loss (I’m testing using “probability of touch” as a stop on debit trades)
8. RCII There was an almost 10,000 contract opening call sale today for Jan 13 calls, so I bought a BePS Jan 13/11 for 1.14 (paid less than intrinsic). Following the “smart money” fund flow on this (I realize this may be Trader setting a hedge vs a spec trade, but it’s limited risk)
9. New NDX #Bitty Dec 29 6125/6120 for .85 cr, 50% target

Active Reds: AAPL, ALGN, DLTR, JPM, LMT, NUE, PIR, QQQ, SPY, ULTA, /ES, BA (net green)

3% return on capital today

#hedge, #rocketmanhedge, #syntheticshort


NDX: Rolled BeCS from 6460/70 to 6360/70, took profit, reset for delta control against BuPS
PYPL: Covered short calls (Covered Call) and reset on upswing
MOMO: Closed defended earnings trade for net $97.00 profit, used #Inversion defense
ALGN: Added a BeCS to my BuPS for delta management
BA: Bruce Marshall did a class last night at ST, I bought the #Butterfly setup from the class, it’s a directional Butterfly: Jan 18 265/275/285 10×20 for 2.55 debit, target 3.06
NVDA: Fuzzball reminded me to get an NVDA position open, put on a #JadeLizard Dec 15 short 185 put, short 205 call, long 207.5 call for net credit of 3.23, up nicely now, target cover 1.62.
KORS: This started as a post-earnings Iron Condor with good backtest history, but it has gone through SO much defense. Very happy to take it off today. I show a profit after many adjustments, but I don’t quite trust that I have the right baseline number.
SPX: I closed 3 of 4 #Bitty for a +$50 scratch. I added a BeCS to the 4th 2650/2655 for 1.45 cr for delta management.
I know these posts are lacking proper detail, but it’s been a very challenging day for me, trying to get the cows back into the corral!

NDX #Bitty Conversion 2 more…

NDX #Bitty Conversion

2 more orders slipped in before the close. I have a special indicator I’ll share with everyone soon, but it gave me a flag on QQQ, so I quickly layered on a BeCS onto my NDX Bitty from yesterday to flatten deltas, extend range, raise max loss, and increase max profit:
On already from yesterday: Dec 8 6330/6325 BuPS for .80 cr x10
Added: Dec 8 6460/6470 BeCS for 3.26 cr x 5 (half size due to 10-wide)

Also added QQQ #JadeLizard due to backtest study I’ve run for timing.
Dec 15 Short 154 put/ Short 158 call/long 159 call for net credit of .90 x 5 BE 153.07 to down side, there’s .10 of upside risk.

BA #Bitty roll You guys…

BA #Bitty roll
You guys are probably ready to boot me? Sorry I’m a very active trader, will try to consolidate more. Rolled a Boeing Bitty (that’s fun to say). Closed a Dec 8 260/257 bitty for $220 profit, opened a new one: Dec 15 262.5/260 BuPS for .45 x 12.