It’s been a busy quarter for pre-earnings trades. I’m still holding positions in BABA, NVDA, and ADSK and watching for new trades in CRM and AVGO later this month. Here’s a link to the Google spreadsheet where I track pre-ER trades. Wins far outpaced losses. Whew!
Sold EOG Aug3 128c @ 2.30 for 130% profit. Bot @ 1. This is second round of pre-ER.
As mentioned earlier, I take profits on these trades on big green days.
Out last round of BA for 10%
Out CAT, INTC, and SHOP for 40% profit
Out 60% of EOG for 50% profit
Out BABA for 115% profit (held less than 24 hours)
Out WYNN, the struggler, for average profit of 15%
Still in AET, EA, EOG, TTWO. Watching several for a second round and watching AZO, ADSK, and CRM for a first round.
Added a few more small pre-earnings positions. After this week, watching AZO, ADSK, and CRM.
Bot CAT Aug3 139c @ 2.45
Bot BABA Aug3 190c @ 1.95
Bot AET Aug3 190c @ 2.10 (wide bid-ask so riskier trade but good historical pattern)
Sold Aug17 115c @ 1.11 for 71% profit. Bot @ 1.90.
This is my last round of CHKP pre-earnings.
#preearnings #earningsrunup – Nice bounce today. Got the 40 percent….woohoo! Looks like it could have some more room too…another 4 dollars up to the 200ma.
Sold to Close LMT JUL 27 2018 327.5 Call @ 2.65 (bought for 1.90)
Bot EOG Aug3 128c @ 1.05 x2. Adding a layer on today’s pullback.
Bot AMTD Jul27 58c @ .60 ydy, Sold @ .95
Bot BA Jul27 370c @ 3.45 ydy. Sold @ 4.70
Sometimes these trades are short lived. 40% GTC targets hit or exceeded.
More pre-earnings trades
Bot BA Jul27 370c @ 3.35. GTC order to sell @ 4.70 (40% profit target)
Bot TTWO Aug3 128c @ 4.80. GTC order to sell @ 6.72 (40% profit target)
EOG earnings momentum
Bot EOG Aug3 128c @ 1.49 x3 using a 16/1 custom setup. Will add more on pullbacks.
16/1 setup = Enter 16 days before earnings. Exit one day before earnings. Pick an option expiration that covers the earnings report date. Choose a long call with the delta that gives the best results based on historical data. Standard setups in CML are 3/1, 7/1, and 14/1. Standard delta is 40.
Many of my pre-ER trades hit exit date or closed for target profit while I was away.
INFY 5%, ABT 40%, ASML 40%, AMZN 40%, MSFT 40%, LMT 72% (3rd round).
Converted NFLX BUCS to IC yesterday and closed put side today for 20% profit on IC position.
Still trading CAT, CHKP, GOOGL, INTC, LMT, MA, SHOP, SPOT and WYNN. Added a layer of INTC and a new round of LMT today on the pullback.
Pre-ER. Bot INTC Jul27 53c @ .66
Pre-ER. Bot LMT Jul27 330c @ 1.85
Bot SPX Jul20/23 2815 call calendar @ 1.35
Bot SPX Jul20/23 275 put calendar @ 1.40
Taking early pre-ER profits before I head out on a 4-day running trip with limited internet access.
EA. Sold Jul27 152.5c @ 3.10. Bot @ 2.45 average price. Still holding Jul27 157.5c at average price of 1.70.
GOOGL. Sold Jul27 1240/1260 cds @ 3.70. Bot @ 2.90
ISRG. Sold Jul20 490/505 cds @ 9.25. Bot @ 6.45. Still holding Jul20 535c @ 2.70.
MA. Sold Jul27 207.5c @ 2.52. Bot @ 1.47. Still holding MA Ju27 212.5c @ 1.11
This is a risky pre-ER trade because the stock has only been public since April 3. However, it showed strong momentum going into May earnings, is in a squeeze, and the Jul27 IV is already expanding.
Bot SPOT Jul27 BuCS 190/200 @ 2.70. Will place GTC order on Jul19 (7 days before ER) to close at 40% above the price at that time.
Sold Aug17 110c @ 2.78. Bot @ .85.
Still holding Aug17 115c @ .80
Adding to existing positions based on pullback and CML backtests
Bot ABT Jul20 64c @ .37
Bot CHKP Aug17 115c @ .80
Bot EA Jul27 157.5c @ 1.51
Bot MSFT Jul20 104c @ 1.17
Bot NFLX Jul20 cds 445/455 @ 2.68
Bot WYNN Jul27 172.5c @ 2.08
Bot LMT Jul27 312.5c @ 2.00 x 2. Sold @ 3.90.
Used proceeds for another round. Bot LMT Jul27 317.5c @ 2.35 x 2
Bot Jul27 172.5c (30 delta) @ 2.35 x2.
This is based on a 14/1 CML study and a turnaround story on the chart.
Bot BA Jul27 360c @ 2.80 ydy for pre-ER. Sold @ 3.85.
Bot NVDA 240/245c @ 2.35 for supercharger. Sold @ 4.
Bot WYNN Jul27 162.5c @ 3.15 on July 5. Sold @ 6.05.
Bot EA Jul27 152.5c @ 2.41. First layer 1 lot on today’s pullback
Bot ABT Jul18 64c @ .33. Starter position 5 lots
Sold JPM Jul20 106c @ 2.10 x4. Bot in layers for avg price of 1.40.
Still holding JPM fuzzy Jul20 105c/105p/102p 1/-1/1 @ .70. Current price 2.03
Bot NFLX Jul20 420c @ 10.04. Sold @ 20.00
Will open new position on any significant pullback before earnings report on 7/16.
Bought to open $LMT July 20th 310 calls for 1.00. I will assess the trade’s performance next Friday, 7 dte.
With pre-earnings, I recommend to use small position size and add layers on pullbacks. I’m adding to LMT and INFY today on the pullback. This is my own refinement of the CMLViz strategy. CML goes all in on the first trade. At 7 days before earnings, they use a 40% profit/loss stop.
Bot LMT Jul20 310c @ 1.30
Bot INFY Jul20 20c @ .29
Bot Jul20 310c @ 1.94.
GTC order to sell at 80% profit or will sell the day before the earnings report whichever comes first.
LMT has had a rough patch the last couple months so it may be riskier than usual to take a pre-earnings momentum trade. However, it has the best CML study results of all the pre-ER trades I’m following. Excellent returns on entering trades 14 days, 7 days, or 3 days (any day for that matter) before the report. All study results are based on exiting the trade before the report. There is no earnings risk on these trades.
BTO ASML Jul20 200c @ 3.80. Will sell @ 50% profit or day before earnings report on 7/18.
BTO JPM Jul20 106c @ 1.50. Will close @ 50% profit or day before earnings report on 7/13
BTO NFLX Jul20 420c @ 10.04. GTC order to close @ 20.00
BTO NFLX Jul20 440c @ 5.30. GTC order @ 7.40
Confirmed earnings report 7/16. This trade is based on a historical momentum pattern going into earnings. 100% win rate for the last four quarters.
Looks like it was a quiet day for a lot of people here.
1. May I please call these “Fuzzy” trades? I love them and I’m doing a lot of them (#SyntheticStock Diagonals w/ protection and hedge income—From now on known as #Fuzzies. To me, the Fuzzies have two stages, stage one is recovering the net debit of the trade; Stage 2 is recovery of the spread risk. I spent time this weekend looking at and scoring candidates. The “score” is basically the number of weeks of hedge income that it takes to accomplish Stage 1. The fewer the number of weeks, the lower the score. I’m looking for Fuzzies with a score of less than 5, less than 4 even better. I have a picture in my head of having a portfolio of 10 Fuzzies, each with $10 spread risk, bringing in 10-15K a week in income. So I’m testing these aggressively.
I have a TOS scan for finding high-return covered calls and puts, and it turns out it’s a good scan for finding Fuzzy candidates with low scores. Here’s the scan http://tos.mx/vKzR27
So back to Trade #1: CELG. I happened to catch a big bullish fund order for a Jan risk reversal, so a CELG #Fuzzy was my first trade of the day: Mar 110c/-110p/+100p, Dec 15 110 c. Net debit: 1.38 with a “Score” of approx 2.38 (2.38 weeks to cover the core debit)
2. Oh…here’s a nod to @hcgdavis for the Alpha Shark indicator. Got it. Love it. So scalped a bunch of /NQ today while taking it for a test run. Ended up +$305 on small-lot scalps. Enough to pay for the indicator 🙂
3. NTES. Now this was a franken-trade. It started as one 10-lot #butterfly. As it dropped added another 10-lot butterfly. Last week added a 3rd 10-lot butterfly. Was finally able to close it all out today for a $157 loss. Believe me, I’m happy with that!
4. #Bitties Closed! SPX x 20 lot, NDX x 10 lot. Got 50% target on all of them. The SPX bitties were 7DTE, so was happy to close them asap given the gamma risk. Net profit $1150.
5. Reset 17DTE SPX #Bitties. The Dec 27 2630/2625 for .85 cr x 20
6. NTNX I’ve been holding 703 shares, took 603 off for about $950 profit. Some day they’ll be acquired so I’ll always keep a hundred on. Great stock for swing trading, so will load back up on any dip. My max size position is 3000 shares, but I never seem to get the opp to add that many on.
7. QQQ #JadeLizard closed for 50% profit, this week’s expiration
8. SPY 266/267 #BuCS closed for 90% profit. This was bought based on #UOA (unusual option activity). SPY trades massive volume in fund flow, obviously—but it’s almost all put hedges. Every once in awhile a big bullish trade hits the tape, and those are ones for my attention.
9. NUE Closed a BuCS for 50% profit, this is another one that was bought on #UOA
10. NUE Opened a #Fuzzy Apr 60/60/50 for 1.87 core debit, Dec 15 62 call short for .56, Score is 3.3. There was a lot of bullish option flow on this today….all the way up to the 70 call line.
11 NUE spec trade based on #UOA bought 100 Jan 70 calls for .16, just looking for .21 as my target
12 MU #EarningsRunUp added two more calls to the trade from last week. Looking for 30% profit on these and must close before earnings announcement.
13 AMC #UOA There was unusual activity on AMC right before the other cinema merger happened last week. Turns out AMC confirms they’ve been approached too, regarding investment options. I’m glad I sold a few puts when I saw the fund flow. Netted 50%, $370.00 on a 10-lot
14. MSFT I like to layer on a lot of different MSFT trades. I love what they’re doing with Azure. However I saw a lot of January put buying today on MSFT, so I cut a trade short (#BuCS) for 28% profit vs. the 50% I was looking for. I still have on a MSFT #Butterfly that I’m watching closely. 80/85/90 for Feb.
15. ALGN This is the last of my trades from the tech crash. I defended it resulting in half what the max loss would have been. All closed now for $1150 loss. Classic case of thinking it would come back. Could have been handled better, but could have been handled much worse. I wouldn’t mind resetting with a #bitty or #PutRatioSpread the problem is that it’s just really thin. The Market Makers are not the worst I’ve dealt with (ISRG, KORS, ULTA are worse) but it’s still a struggle.
16. TWTR Opened a #Fuzzy in a 401K. I again saw some large bullish fund flow on TWTR and it had a good score. Mar 22/22/18 core for .78, sold Dec 22.5 call for .46, score is roughly 2. Not sure how this one will work out, but I’m still developing the perfect candidate profile for the Fuzzies.
@fuzzballl I hope you are ok being the namesake on these trades. It’s cute!
1. NVDA: Fully closed the #JadeLizard sold for 3.62, partial cover at 1.62 yesterday, rest covered today at 1.35
2. BA: Closed the contrarian BePS, closed for .66 shy of full loss. Prob of touch is still high enough I should have held, but it’s just continuing to be a train.
3. LRCX: Closed the #PutRatioSpread for over 50% gain, 1.45, $1555.00. Recovery mission on big loss last week.
4. MSFT: #Bitty closed for 50%, this was Jan 80/75 BuPS for .82 cr, covered .41
5. SPX : I’m kind of thinking we see a strong market into next week’s expiration, so rolled the short puts on the #RocketManHedge from 2605 to 2625. Realized $2820 in the roll.
6. SPY: Opened #SpikedLizard for January. Part 1: 264/265/267 for 3.74 cr Part 2 (spike) 260/253 ratio put spread for .05. No upside risk, downside BE is 253 due to the spike. Need SPY price above $260 for meaningful profit. 50% target. I’d like to ladder these every 2 weeks.
7. SPX: Opened 7DTE #Bitty I said I didn’t want to do 7DTE Bitties any more, but betting we see an upside into next week’s expiration. Of course I could be all wrong. Got more credit than usual on these. Dec 15 2630/2625 BuPS for average price of .875 credit, 50% target
8. TXN: Opened BuPS for January 97.5/95 for .72, 50% target
9. TJX: Continued defense. Sold Dec 15 calls to adjust deltas
10. MU: Opened #EarningsRunUp trade based on historical backtesting. Partial position. Dec 22 47.5 call for 1.04.
11. PIR: Closed #EarningsRunUp trade for 28% profit, bought at .35, sold at .45
12. ABBV: Opened #BuPS for January 92.5/90 for .56, target 50%
13. FLIR: Opened #SyntheticCoveredCall for January 47 puts for 1.40, very high historical win rate on short puts for this company
14. BBY: Closed the contrarian BePS for loss, salvaging .60 from max loss
15. AAPL: I already have a BuPS on for next week, used this little upswing today to sell calls converting it to an #IronButterfly.