One of the few pre-ER stocks that’s staying strong thru this downturn.
#PreEarnings Added batch 2 out of possible 3. Looks like we may be done going down for the day. If I’m wrong, I’ll add batch 3 for less.
Bought $TGT Nov 23rd 89 calls for 1.75.
In other EOG news, this was the last of my #PreEarnings trades, all of which failed. My long 125 calls are worthless. Plain & simply, these ain’t gonna work if a correction hits. My mistake was entering most of these trades AFTER a downside warning hit. Lesson learned!
The win on the calendar makes me breakeven on EOG, so it’s a sunny day.
Sold LMT pre-ER long calls @ 94% loss and BWB for 38% loss. Still holding double calendar thru earnings to reduce losses.
Sold two BWB (broken-wing fly) for average 10% profit. Got out based on hitting target price on LITE. The flies don’t profit as much as the long calls but they have less risk too.
Sold BABA pre-ER positions for average profit of 31%. Based on possibility of China one-day bounce.
AAPL BMY DIS GE LITE VALE
Trade at your own risk.:-)
When a system doesn’t work, stop trading it. No more pre-ER this quarter for me. That means they’ll probably start working like a charm. I’ve been doing these systematically for two years. This is the first quarter where the losses are piling up.
Closed GPC long calls and straddle for a profit (held thru earnings)
Sold a double cal in HON to end up with a profit overall (unusual adjustment)
Full loss on VFC
Still holding AMZN, BABA, CAT, EOG, GOOGL, LITE, LMT, MSFT, ROKU, SHOP, SWK with limited risk. All losing except LITE at this point.
Will update the pre-ER spreadsheet with actual percent gains and losses after the close
#PreEarnings Sold to close $GPC Oct 19th 100 calls for .25. Bought for 1.28, avg price.
#PreEarnings Sold to close $VALE Oct 26th 15.5 calls for .70. This is a double-sized position, so I closed half. Leaving the other half. Avg purchase price .477.
Boom! Taking a moment for excessive celebration as this is the first pre-ER field goal of the season. lol.
Sold VALE Oct 26 16c @ .45 for target profit of 40%. Bot at avg price of .31
#PreEarnings Following on a couple of Mama’s trades; these two symbols have been good for me lately.
Bought $EOG Nov 2nd 125 calls for .94. Earnings on Nov 1st pm
Bought $SHOP Oct 26th 150 calls for 1.90. Earnings on Oct 25th am
Adding opportunistically to BABA, EOG, LMT, SHOP, and VFC
#PreEarnings It’s feverish of me to add to such a dog, but it actually lowers my cost basis to .567, which I think gives this a good shot at breaking even. Plus, it only costs me scratch.
Bought $CAT Oct 26th 165 calls for .06, adding to my position.
Pre-ER. Bot GPC Oct19 40 delta strangle 97c/94.5p @ 2.65 x1. GTC order to close @ 3.40 for 40% profit.
This has not been my finest hour with pre-earnings trades. 100% loss in both C and JPM. Cutting max position size in half for the rest of October.
#PreEarnings Added final batch to $SWK Oct 26th 140 calls for 1.65. I was early, much cheaper now.
#PreEarnings Well, you gotta pick a bottom sometimes… actually, you don’t really, but I did. Doubling down on my two lowest priced long options trades. These report Oct 23 & 24, respectively.
Bought $CAT Oct 26th 165 calls for .29. Avg cost now .827 on a double sized position.
Bought $VALE Oct 26th 15.5 calls for .44. Avg cost .477 on a double size.
#PreEarnings Bought my last batch of $VFC Oct 26th 95 calls for 1.05. Avg price on full position, 1.20.
The remainder are all under water. Holding up best are $GPC And $VALE. $CAT and $MSFT hobbled.
$JPM not too bad… since I sold half, the position has only a small max loss… I may keep this second half past Friday morning earnings in case we get a gap open.
#PreEarnings Bought phase 2 of $VFC Oct 26th 95 calls for 1.40. Started yesterday at 1.00.
#PreEarnings Bought to open $GPC Oct 19th 100 calls for 1.75. Starter position.
Added to CAT, LMT, MSFT, SWK
Opened first layer of GPC, VALE
#PreEarnings All of my long pre-earnings trades are sinking, but it gives me the chance to add my final leg to $MSFT:
BTO $MSFT Oct 26th 116 calls for .88. Avg price of full position: 1.17.
MSFT has not confirmed earnings date, but the expectation is Oct 25th.
Added 2nd layer of CAT 10/26 165 calls @.96 to position opened yesterday. Thanks @MamaCash
#PreEarnings Bought to open $MSFT Oct 26th 116 call for 1.15, adding to the position started yesterday.
VFC confirmed ER today so adding a small position for the 14/1 setup.
Bot VFC Oct26 95c @ 1.15 x2 (first of four possible layers)
#PreEarnings Bought $CAT Oct 26th 165 calls for 1.20, adding to the position started yesterday.
#PreEarnings Bought to Open $MSFT Oct 26th 116 calls for 1.40, starter position.
Bot LMT Oct26 362.5 call @ 2.15. First of five possible layers.
Bot MSFT Oct 26 116c @ 1.67 x3 (first layer half size). This trade is based on a 100% win rate for the 21/1 setup. ER hasn’t been confirmed but the bloated vol in the Oct26 expiration is a good indication that they’ll report that week.
#PreEarnings Put in my order near the highs but then the flush came. Closed half my position.
Sold to close $JPM Oct 12th 116 calls for 1.43. Avg purchase price .83
Bot CAT Oct26 165c @ 2.10 based on 21/1 setup. 1st of up to 5 layers
Click “Refresh” to load these new features in the right-hand column.
*Upcoming #Earnings – shows the tickers reporting earnings over next 7 trading days. Included are stocks with weekly options, at least $5.00 stock price, and significant volume. Tickers that are commonly traded by the Bistro community are highlighted in red. You may click on the chart for a larger view. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS of tickers you think should be included if you notice any missing.
*Mama Cash’s #PreEarnings Trades – this is a link to Mama’s excel sheet for trade ideas and past performance of stocks that perform well leading up to their earnings dates. She will keep this updated as earnings season progresses.
*Countdown – will countdown the days until any significant trading events. Again, open to suggestions.
Let me know if you have any questions!
Tomorrow is entry day for a 100% winning pre-ER trade in MSFT. The backtest is based on entering 21 days before earnings and closing the day of earnings before the pm report.
Rather than posting closing trades throughout the day, I plan to post a daily summary. I’ll continue to post opening trades individually to ensure that they’re timely in case anyone wants to follow.
BA. Strong stock in strong sector strat. BTO Oct26 lophir @ -2.61. STC @ -.80 for 70% profit. Days in trade 12
AAPL. Pre-ER strat. BTO Oct26 supercharger @ 7.93. STC @ 9.40 for 16% profit. Days in trade 8
NFLX. Pre-ER strat. BTO Oct19 lophir @ -8.31. STC @ -2.50 for 70% profit. Days in trade 13
Note: Profit on lophirs is based on credit received, not max risk. I’m willing to report based on max risk if you all prefer that.
This is a CML-inspired trade from the Discover tab. This lophir has 37/30/25/10 deltas so double the net delta that I usually do. The backtest is based on 30dte opening 30 days before earnings and closing 10 days before earnings. We don’t have a confirmed ER for AAPL so based this trade on past Oct-Nov ERs for AAPL.
Bot AAPL Nov2 +1p/-2p/-1p/+2p 220/217.5/215/202.5 @ -2.65 x1. No GTC order. Will close 10 days before ER.
#PreEarnings I wasn’t planning on increasing size on this, but I’m getting such a discount today that I figured why not. If we don’t bounce by Monday or Tuesday, this won’t be looking too good.
BTO $JPM Oct 12th 116 calls for .50, adding to my position, started yesterday for 1.14.
Bot C Oct12 74.5c @ .58 x4. Second layer on pullback.
Bot JPM Oct12 117c @ .59 x4. Second layer on pullback.
SWK is new to my pre-ER list but it has amazing stats for the last four quarters. I’ve run at least 20 setups on this ticker and all are winners. So with their confirmed earnings date of 10/25 am, I’m going to start building a position. This layer is tiny.
Bot SWK Oct26 155c @ 1.90 x1
#PreEarnings Bought to open $JPM Oct 12th 116 calls for 1.14.
Got this from MamaCash’s excel sheet… buying 40-delta call, 14 days out. The pullback in the stock over last few days provides decent entry for a run up into earnings, which are the morning of the 12th. I’ll plan to close the trade before the market close on the 11th. I’ll look to take profits if stock approaches its recent high of 119.24.
CML recommended a different way of playing GOOGL pre-earnings.
Bot Oct26 1/-2/-1/2 1162.5/1145/1115/1100 PUT/PUT/PUT/PUT x1 @-6.51. BE 1121. Max risk $3594. Will let it run to expiration or take 70% quick profit @ 1.95 if it plays out quickly.
Update: This list is based on my research and backtesting. Although I use CML tools, this list did not come from CML nor has it been vetted by them. Buy at your own risk which you already do.
Each quarter, I compile a list of pre-ER candidates based on CML backtests. Attached is the Q4 2018 list. Over the next few weeks, I will continue to modify the spreadsheet to add new ideas, custom setups and confirmed earnings dates. The suggested entry date is the date on which the backtest is based. The yellow highlight means it’s currently in entry week. You can start watching earlier for a good entry or add to a position after this date. This is a starting point for taking a long position in a stock before earnings. Green highlights indicate that the candidate has 100% win rates in more than one setup.
I include only setups and backtests with 100% win rate over at least four quarters, an average return per trade of 40% or more, stocks with weekly options, and medium to high options liquidity. There are many other pre-ER candidates in CML but my preference is to stick with the 100% winners as long as they provide a diverse selection.
Some interesting observations include:
- WYNN and SWK are the only stocks with a 100% win rate over more than 4 quarters
- CML has introduced a new pre-ER straddle that I like. It’s in the spreadsheet under the Custom column
- Many of our favorites have fallen off the 100% win rate list (BA, INTC, MA, PYPL and others)
- SWK emerges as the best candidate this quarter with 100% win rate across five setups
#PreEarnings Taking a shot at $MU. Chips have been beaten up lately but starting to show support. MU is now bouncing off the consolidation area from early this year. Taking a slightly OTM long call. Even if earnings reaction next week is not stellar, stock will have until Oct 5th to reach the 47.00 break-even.
Bought to Open $MU Oct 5th 45 long calls for 2.02. Keep an eye out, you might get this cheaper if we drop more intraday.
Also long shares in a #PieTrade.
It’s been a busy quarter for pre-earnings trades. I’m still holding positions in BABA, NVDA, and ADSK and watching for new trades in CRM and AVGO later this month. Here’s a link to the Google spreadsheet where I track pre-ER trades. Wins far outpaced losses. Whew!
But I’m under water with naked calls 330 calls in $TSLA, and #CoveredCalls in $AAPL and $SQ. I will have to roll on Friday. May require me to stay up late!
Closed $TSLA 260 puts for .06. Sold for 2.75
Sold $PYPL Aug 17th 87.5 #SyntheticCoveredCalls for .80.
This is the first time on this trip I’m still awake for the open.
Sold to close $AET Aug 3rd 190 calls for 1.00. Bought for 1.50, #PreEarnings.
BTC $MU Aug 3rd 55 call for .10. Sold for .80 last week. Looking to replace. #PieTrades
Sold to Open $SQ 71 calls for .78. Order in to sell the 60 puts. Calls are covered, some with stock, some synthetically with long LEAPs.
Sold $TSLA Aug 3rd 260 puts for 2.75. Looking to sell 330 calls for 2.25 on the bounce.
Sold WYNN Pre-ER Aug3 167.5c @ 2.70 for 4% loss. Bot @ 2.80.
Sold early due to market weakness. Loss is minimal at this point so want to keep it that way. This is the last round of WYNN for me this quarter. Previous rounds 93%, 20%, 10%, and -2%.
After 24 hours of travel I was NOT staying up for a 10:30pm market open, so I set up a few orders and slept through the night.
Sold strangles on $FB #Earnings… 197.5/230, fortunately small in size!
Closed $EOG #PreEarnings trade for almost a double.
Closed my final $SPX spreads for profit. Now flat in $SPX for first time in 3 years.
Today was a fun and busy day. Looks like tomorrow will just be a busy day.:-)
STC EA pre-ER for small loss. Second pre-ER loser this quarter. GOOGL was the first.
STC CAT pre-ER Aug3 140c @ 3.80 for 58% profit. Bot @ 2.40. Third and last round of CAT
STC SHOP pre-ER Aug3 180c @ 4.40 for 42%. Bot @ 3.10 ydy. Third round of SHOP pre-ER
Rolled BABA Aug10 calls down to 35d twice collecting $1552 profit.
BTO BABA pre-ER Aug3 202.5 @ 1.46. Third round of BABA pre-ER
BTO WYNN pre-ER Aug3 167.5c @ 3.60. Fourth round of WYNN pre-ER
BTO LRCX strangle Aug3 175c/167.5p @7.37. Will hold through earnings for a pop or drop.
BTO CHKP post-ER based on reaction to earnings. Aug17 120c @ .85
BTO GRUB post-ER trade Aug10 140c @ 2. Will buy more layers if pullbacks.
Sold BABA Aug3 192.5c @ 4.60. Bot @ 2 ydy.
Bot BABA Aug3 197.5c @ 2.07 using half of the profits for a third round of pre-ER. BABA is rivaling LMT for 1st place in terms of profits on this quarter’s pre-ER trades.
Sold SHOP Aug3 180c @ 4.40 for 42% profit. Bot @ 3.10 ydy. Third round of SHOP pre-ER.
As mentioned earlier, I take profits on these trades on big green days.
Out last round of BA for 10%
Out CAT, INTC, and SHOP for 40% profit
Out 60% of EOG for 50% profit
Out BABA for 115% profit (held less than 24 hours)
Out WYNN, the struggler, for average profit of 15%
#PreEarnings Sold to close $LMT July 27th long 330 calls for .85. Bought for 1.40 last week. Small loss on this batch, but with previous call spreads included I netted 5.90 profit on multiple spreads in multiple accounts. Thanks for leading the way, MamaCash!
Took five small long positions in GOOG for pre earnings momentum. Closed the last three today for a loss. Date shown is when I entered the trade. All were Jul27 expiry.
Jul2, Call credit spread, 10%
Jul2, Call credit spread, 27%
Jul2, Call credit spread, -35%
Jul9, Call credit spread, -35%
Jul12, Put credit spread, -11%
#PreEarnings Bought to Open $EOG Aug 3rd 128 calls for 1.30. See MamaCash’s post from yesterday for more details on the strategy.
#PreEarnings This one has had a tendency to drift higher into earnings. Low-priced stock so the 37-delta options are cheap. Earnings estimated Aug 23-30, so I have room to roll once or twice.
Bought to Open $MRVL Aug 10th 22 calls for .45.