Back at work so have not had time to update. Managed to get a few trades in. This is update of current positions.
Tues. STO IBB 107.5 5/3 put for 1 right before the medicare for all gave all the biotechs and insurers a haircut. Will be adjusting this for a few weeks.
IWM STO the 5/10 152 put for 1.21 today. May convert to #lizardpies depending on market moves
LNG 67.5 put was rolled down last week for cost basis of 66.8. Need to adjust and exp. 5/3.
AMAT 43.5 CC expires next week. cb 42.55
ERX 23 cc expires today/assigned and cb 21.81
LNG batch 2 same as above but cb 67.15. Had a better fill.
TNA expiring today 65 put rolled to next week 64 for 0.48 credit. Cb 63.52 if assigned but will manage
TQQQ 53.5 cc expires next week. 56.75 cb. I tried to roll it but the MM are being greedy bloodsuckers so will take the minor loss and use the money on something else.
AMAT 41.5 put expiring today rolled to 42.5 next week for 0.42 credit. Cb 42.08.
EXPE 113/130/131 for 5/10 credit now 3.84. Hope to close next week.
SQ 74/78/78.5 adjusted Tues for additional credit. 72.81 cost basis
GILD 65/65 cb down to 7.34
GILD batch 2 65/65 cb at 5.23
XBI 80/80/85 rolled today. Cb 8.96
I am trying a 21 DTE OTM experiment as I noticed while I was off OTM options usually crushed by over half from 21 DTE down to 14 DTE if they stayed OTM. Percentage wise much better than 45 DTE and really not to much closer to the money on strikes. Maybe 1-3. Will keep posted but I am hoping there will be a lot less adjusting. Adjustments just decrease profits. Will keep you posted.
Hoppy Easter everyone 🙂
EOG will call out today at 97 with cost basis of 96.14
LNG 67 put rolled up to 68 and next week for 0.66 credit. Total credit now 1.22.
TQQQ batch 1 54.5 cc being assigned with cost basis of 56.39 for 1.89 loss. Was a lot worse in Jan.
LNG batch 2 67.5 rolled up to 68 and out to next week for 0.55 credit.
TNA 62.5 put rolled to next week and 65.5 for 0.85 credit
EXAS is expiring for 0.62 credit per contract. I was trying to close it but the MM are being greedy. The spread on the put is 0-3.90 and they are not moving. I tried to roll/close for 0.2 but no dice. Ok, I will let it expire for full credit and not pay commission.
EXPE 113/130/131 decaying well. 1 more week should be able to close roll at 50%.
Looks like the largest theta decay on some of these OTM strangles/jade lizards occurs from 28 to 14 days. For instance the 113 put on EXPE is going for 1.25, 21 DTE 1 and 14 DTE 0.20. I may start looking at these from 21 or 28 days down to 14 days to recycle capital faster.
AMAT STO the 9 DTE 41.5 put at 0.70. Will let assign if ITM or roll depending on where it is next week.
#ShortPuts #PieTrades Sold $T July 32 puts for 1.50.
#Earnings $DAL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.16%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO +3.56%
July 12, 2018 BO +1.78%
April 12, 2018 BO +2.93%
Jan. 11, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
Oct. 11, 2017 BO +0.70%
July 13, 2017 BO -1.76% Biggest DOWN
April 12, 2017 BO -0.52%
Jan. 12, 2017 BO -1.06%
Oct. 13, 2016 BO +1.88%
July 14, 2016 BO +3.58%
April 14, 2016 BO +0.93%
Avg (+ or -) 1.97%
Bias 1.41%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 57.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 54.79 to 59.21
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 55.88 to 58.12
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 54.29 to 59.71
Based on DOWN max only (-1.8%): 56.00
Open to requests for other symbols.
QQQ Jan 2020 175/184.5 4/18 for 16.72 debit. Plan is to roll/adjust/close depending on where it is next week.
LNG STO the 4/12 67.5 put for 0.80. Cost basis 66.7 if assigned.
EOG batch 2 assigned at 89 at a cost basis of 92.63. This is a small account and I plan to take it to spreads to juice returns so just wanted to take the loss so I can redeploy capital on Monday.
EOG batch 1 I rolled up to the 97 cc for next week at 6.75 and after selling the 97 for 1.35 cost basis 96.14. I never figured out why it spiked so much yesterday?
FAS 57 cc assigned at cb of 54.20.
ERX 23 cc rolled 2 weeks for 0.5 credit. Cb 21.81
LNG 4/12 67 put sold for 0.54 yesterday.
EXPE rolled on 4/3 to 37 DTE 113/130/131 for additional credit. Total credit now 3.84 per contract
EXAS STO the 89 put for 4/12 for 1.01, then converted to #jadelizard yesterday 89/89/90 for another 0.6 credit.
SMH closed 4/3 for 0.45 credit per contract
JPM closed 4/4 for 1.08 credit per contract
SQ rolled out to 4/12 for 1.26 credit at 76/76/76.5 strikes. cb 74.74 if assigned.
TNA 60 rolled to 4/12 62.5/62.5/63 for 1.1 credit.
GILD 65/65 cb at 6.39
GILD 65/65 rolled out 37 DTE yesterday for 1.07 credit. Cb now 7.34
1 more week of surgical recovery then back to work but trading full time the last few weeks has been more than I would make at work so good to know for retirement. However, I am really looking forward to some solid food!