AMAT

Rolled AMAT Jan 10 62.5 Call out to Jan 24 63 Call for $0.85 credit
Cost Basis with this roll $58.03….Assigned 12/11 at $62.00
#pietrades

#assignment Letting LABU, TQQQ and…

#assignment

Letting LABU, TQQQ and TNA all be called out tomorrow. All profitable but I am exiting the triple game after seeing the tasty trade research.

Also staying out of earnings as much as I can. My earnings track record is not so good, lost on 8 out of 5 when I decided to stay out a few quarters ago. I will stay in them if I already have #fuzzy on.

Making enough money just doing #pietrades, #fuzzy, #hedges, and Pie trade #optionladder that I can stick with those. May be boring to some, but it is mechanical and it works. 2 accounts hit all time highs the last 2 weeks and both had SVXY in them. 2 down, 1 to go but that was the biggest loss and will take more time but on a portfolio basis I am back above my cost basis so technically all the losses have been covered 🙂

20 months to break even.

Plan not to ever do that again 🙂 🙂

And the hedges will help, see below.

I have been trying to…

I have been trying to move out of the leveraged ETFs but am stuck in a few for a while. Tastytrade did some research that shows trading options on the leveraged has much lower returns than just trading the regular ETF. Even accounting for contango/drift/ backwardization. My personal results show that as well. I know a lot of people here trade them but it may be more effective to not option trade them. As a hedge, sure they work but for options not so much. With the volatility over the last month or so, I have had trouble staying ahead of the fluctuations. The premiums are huge but the options are not priced for the movement for selling them.

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/trading-options-on-leveraged-etfs-11-26-2018
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/leveraged-etfs-not-consistent-performance-03-31-2016

#pietrades
With that said rolled
LABU 35 cc out 29 DTE for 1 and cost basis down to 33.80. My plan is to let call out if ITM and use it on something else.
TQQQ 60 CC rolled out to next week fr 0.98. Cb 57.52. Same as above.
LABU 35.5 cc rolled out 22 DTE and down to 35 for 0.90. Cb 33.49. Same
EXPE STO the 29 DTE 123 put for 2.05. Timing could not have been worse, market reversed 2 minute after that.

#fuzzy
XBI #fuzzy rolled 80/80 out to 22 DTE for 0.65 credit. Cb now 0.85. Still have until 2021 to keep making $ on this one.
XBI #fuzzy 80/83 rolled down to 80/80 and 29 DTE for 0.88 credit. Cb 3.99.
LNG 65/62.5/61/60 rolled this weeks 61 and 62.5 to 61 and 62 for 22 and 29 DTE for 0.56 and 0.88 credits. Cb now 5.34

Also don’t know if any of you saw the Tastytrade episodes, market measures in the summer, search back to around page 7-12 on strangles showing that managing strangles/trades at 21 DTE beat all other management strategies, period. Even better than 50% profits. There are about 3-4 sessions on that. I have an IBB experiment going on starting 43-45 DTE and managing at 21-22 DTE. Hard to tell how it is working with the volatility but I rolled IBB yesterday (just the put side). Will re-establish the strangle depending on where we end up this week or next. I also have an ITM #jadelizard experiment going on at opening at 21 DTE. Will let you know results once I have a few cycles.

Not trying to brag but my core account just hit an all time high so I must be doing something right. That wipes out the SVXY losses on 1 account. 2 others still have a way to go but this is my largest trading account so nice to know I covered those losses in 21 months. I originally thought it would take much longer. I suspect the other 2 accounts will take another 12 months on 1 and 24 on the other. Chipping away and will hope to never make that mistake again!!!!

Trade smart, stay nimble 🙂

LABU

Assigned on various lots over the weekend on #pietrades. STO the 35, 35.5 and 36 cc for 2.8, 2.75 and still waiting on the 36 fill. Regardless brings CB to 34.80, 34.70 and under 35 for the final.36 filled for 2.70. CB 34.85.

Rolls and adjusting

Last 2 weeks just adjusted several puts that went ITM from all the tweets.

Anyway, showing some profits this week so rolling and resetting.

/ES hedges closed for a $230 loss. Considering they cost $2398 they did their job. Kept me in trades and generated some cash on the first twitter drop. Reset to 106 DTE at the 2690/2700 back ratio, short 2:4 long for $3225. Hope I don’t need them but if so the lottery ticket will pay for future hedges. It was cheaper today with the VIX drop.

#pietrades XBI ladder at the 78/80/82 strikes. Rolled the 80 down to 79 and out 22 DTE for 1.19. Total credit 1.45 so cost 77.60 if assigned (include commisions). The other are 81.77 and 77.60.
JPM 106 puts closed for 0.15 or 1.19 profit per contract.
IBB STO 99 22 DTE put for 1.00.
LABU 3 lots at the 38 strikes will take assignment and convert to CC true #pietrade style. Spreads were too wide to roll since really close to ATM.

#fuzzy
EOG 85/74.5 and 75/75 puts rolled and cost basis now 24.19. Not the best candidate for LEAPs as the long options were expensive but saved some bacon.
GILD 65/65 will roll next week. CB 1.97. 2 more rolls should be 100% returns and free trade after that. Good until 2021. This was also a recovery from when it was closer to 80 so not a bad recovery.
GILD 65/65 rolled for credit, now free trade. Have 0.39 credit per contract. The other 2 batches in this account are 2.28 and 6.08 debits.
LNG 60/60 put spread CB 9.30. Will roll in 1-2 weeks.
XBI 80/80 calls at 2.13
XBI 80/85 at 0.77 credit per contract (free trade :)). Still have to 2021 to keep selling against it or just sit on the long calls if it starts going up again.
80/83 at 6.00. Cost basis was 11.63 and started 6/21 so 51.5% return since June 21 this year. I think #fuzzy LEAP spreads are the clear winners for smaller accounts. But certain names trade better than others. You want to buy as cheap a LEAP as you can find then sell expensive weekly options against it.
LNG 65/65/61.5/59.5 down to 8.66. Converted about 3 weeks ago when a bunch of puts went deep ITM. Excellent return here as well, initial cost was 11.12 so 33% in 3 weeks.

Trade smart!

INTC closed

#PieTrades. Another one I’m closing with only minor loss, as I don’t want to deal with ITM naked puts or stock holdings in this market.

BTC $INTC Sep 6th 46 puts for 1.61. Sold for 1.49 on Aug 12th.

KHC puts & stock closed

#PieTrades BTC $KHC Aug 23rd 27 puts for 1.45.

That is only a third of my position; the other third was assigned. I was set to allow all of it to be assigned, but rather not carry burden of stock. So also unloaded the stock. Since I sold the puts for 1.23 on Aug 8th, this is closing at almost breakeven.

Sold to close $KHC stock for 25.58. Cost basis 25.67.

INTC puts

#PieTrades Sold to Open $INTC Sept 6th 46 puts for 1.50.

Since my on-going favorite $T is not near 52-week lows, I’ve switched to $KHC and INTC for my PieTrades.

Ketch-down

#PieTrades #dividends Bought some stock in one account at 26.70. On all accounts, started a #PieTrade:
Sold $KHC Aug 23rd 27 puts for 1.23

thanks for the idea @honkhonk81

T closed

#PieTrades Bought to close $T July 19th 32 puts for .10. Sold for 1.48 on April 9th. Will sell again on next move down.

#optionsexpiration and actually these are…

#optionsexpiration and actually these are for next week, I rolled everything today.

Sorry I have not had time to post for anyone that was following trades. I will do a better job of at least a weekly update. That is how I trade. 95% of my trades are on Thurs. so a weekly update should keep things up to date.

Lots of trading last few weeks but equity curve flat. Need the trade tariff BS to end. Not good for business 😦
Most of my trades have been converted to #fuzzy or #lizardpies for recovery.

#hedge
/ES 62 DTE 2610/2605 back ratio has made a few $. It’s real purpose is to guard against a 2/6/18 or 8/24/15 event. Hope I don’t need it but would get a lot of cash then. However like an insurance policy I expect to lose on this.

#pietrades
LABU 45 cc at 44.25 cb and 40 cc at 37.13 and another batch of 40 cc at 38.42
TNA 60 cc at 59.69
TQQQ 63 cc at 62.15
AMAT 22 DTE 42 CC at 41.04. Assigned off a 43 put but had some credits as a cushion

#fuzzy
EOG 92.5/90 rolled down to 87.5/87.5 for a little debit. Cost basis 15.44 but because I had made some on the longs it put some cash back in the account.
GILD 65/65 rolled next week for 0.29 credit. Cost basis 5.91. Should not be too much longer for a free trade.
LNG 67.5/67.5 rolled for 0.34 credit. Cost basis 9.99 down from 15.57 at onset only 4 weeks ago.
XBI 80/80/85 rolled for 0.70 and cb 5.57
XBI 80/85 cb 12.50. This is a new batch we are doing live as an experiment. Avg. about 4% cost reduction per week. With monthlies it is larger about 6-8% but the theta decay is slower. 6% per month is 96% per year.
GILD 65/65 rolled for 0.28 for cb of 3.78. Freebie soon I hope 🙂 but this is also an experiment that will be taken all the way to expiration in 2021.
GILD 65/65 rolled for 0.28 at 6.45. Same as above but this is tracking the compounded addition of contracts as the rolls spit off cash.

#lizardpies
IBB 103.5 rolled down to 102/102/102.5 for total credit of 0.84. This has been recovered all the way from 107/109 strikes. Shows the flexibility of the #jadelizard as a tactic for adjustments.
IWM rolled down from 150 to 149/149/149.5. Reduced debit from 2.11 to 1.63 as I have recovered this from 155/157 strikes. I gave back a little credit to reduce margin.
SQ 63.5/63.5/64 rolled for total credit of 2.19. Looks like it found a bottom.
XBI 81.5 rolled down to 81/81/81.5 for total credit of 2.35.
LNG 64/64/64.5 rolled down from 66 for 1.68 total credit.

Once I can close a few of these, hopefully next week, will start some 21 DTE #lizardpies and create ladders. Some of them will be skewed to downside to just have steady income with every expiration and let them expire each week. Add new ones every Monday or Thurs.

Stay nimble, I suspect there is more volatility ahead but take advantage of the increased premiums 🙂

Here is an example of a 22 DTE #lizardpies I am looking at.

2017-12-01-TOS_CHARTS

7 points of downside protection. No risk to upside. Income over 3 weeks, can probably close early for 50% or more profit.

Random stuff that may be useful.

So my 5 week full time trading experiment has been over for about 4 weeks now. Not trying to brag, but had my second best trading month ever even in a very choppy market. Over 9% returns for the month on my total portfolio and now up 38% for the total portfolio for the year as of this last weekend. Several losing trades in there as well.

So ran a few experiments and noticed a few things about the market in live time.

1. While tastytrade has found that the best time to sell options is 45 DTE, it takes a long time for the decay to occur, especially if the ticker moves. I found that there is a huge theta crush from 21 DTE to 14 or 7 DTE for OTM options. You will be closer to the money than 45 DTE, but the theta decay is huge. I may have posted this already and if so sorry for the repeat, but I was in EXPE and several other trades. Had opened both 45 DTE and 21 DTE. It took 3-5 weeks for the 45 DTE options to crush 50% but only 10 days for the 21 DTE to do the same. Recycle capital faster, make more $.

2. #spycraft version 5.1 or so idea. The weekly income is awesome, but then the 5 STD moves crush all your profits and then some. I have been setting up hedges using /ES and SPX and keeping them on almost all the time now. On the big moves down, you can roll for cash and reset the hedge to new levels. You can set up a longer term hedge 90 DTE or so to cover you max loss basically scratching the trade. It will cost more but will prevent the losses. I have not figured out the ideal ratios yet but stay tuned. Plan is to sell 21 day IC or credit spreads, use the cash to buy a few hedges, then roll weekly and keep cash coming in to reduce the hedge cost basis to zero. Other option is convert the spreads to ratios or butterflies. The butterfly seems to limit the losses faster and then if whipsaw no additional losses.

3. Keeping hedges on allows you to be a much more aggressive trader. If the SPX goes to zero, you hedges will be worth much more than your portfolio was. Because of the volatility expansion you can also buy cheaper options than you thought. I have been planning for a 10% drop as my starting point. Then figure out which option would be worth 10k at a 10% drop. Then you can figure out how many contracts to cover your portfolio. Best to do when the VIX is 12. The black swam events seem to be occurring on average 2 times a year since 2015 but are only supposed to happen once every 5 years. I will always have a hedge and will pay for it by selling options or rolling profits from the hedges.

4. #jadelizard and #lizardpies are hugely adaptable. You can often move 3-5 strikes and still take in a credit. You can also skew it to up or downside and really increase returns. If runs through the upper strikes just let it all expire, take the cash, and reset the next week. If it moves down, reset the straddle ATM.

5. #pietrades are still the cash machine but can convert to jade lizards or LEAPs if it really implodes on you.

6. Staying out of earnings trades has been helpful to my equity curve.

7. Staring at 1 and 5 minute charts is mind numbing. Congratulations to those of you that can do it and trade directionally. I can’t and have a lot more fun things to do. I will stay mostly non directional with a slight directional bias and enjoy life and my free time. Most of my trading is on my free time so the less I have to spend trading is more time to do other things. I personally will not take any trade on anything shorter than a 15 or 30 minute chart but my real triggers are now hourly or 4 hour for the weekly trades.

8. Spreads can save your bacon in really volatile markets.

9. Keep enough cash on the sidelines for adjustments and opportunities.

10. There is always another trade or opportunity. If you feel pressured to make a trade, it is probably a bad idea. The less emotional you can be also the better the adjustments/recovery you can make. Think before hitting the confirm and send button and have a plan and stick to the plan if the trade goes against you. Be mechanical in your trading and adjusting. It may seem boring to some but the reason I trade is to make money. I want adrenaline I will go kiteboard or ski and hopefully not break my face again.

11. Having a group to trade with is like extra eyes on the market. Everyone sees different opportunities. Thanks for sharing 🙂

12. Being a specialist pays off. I am a family practitioner but specialists make more in the medical field. Also true in the market. Have a handful of tickers you know, watch and trade. They all have their own personalities and once you know them it is easier to trade them. I think once you have above 10-12 names you are probably trying to do too much. Trading the same tickers over and over has improved my consistency and results. Sure, play the occasional lottery ticket but to pay the bills stick with what you know. And also make sure your tickers are diversified.

Cheers, Chris 🙂

#spx1dte, #spzx1dte

Speculative trades

Small accounts, small size, IRAs. Don’t bet the farm on these types of trades.

#pietrades
LABU 5/3 49 put STO for 1.05
LABU 5/3 50 cc for cost basis of 48.30.
TQQQ 5/3 66 cc for cost of 65.03.

Will let call out, assign, or expire.

Hopefully the bottom does not fall out in 3-4 days, if so will roll as long as needed. All of these are 78.4% + annualized or better.

Back at work so have…

Back at work so have not had time to update. Managed to get a few trades in. This is update of current positions.

#pietrades
Tues. STO IBB 107.5 5/3 put for 1 right before the medicare for all gave all the biotechs and insurers a haircut. Will be adjusting this for a few weeks.
IWM STO the 5/10 152 put for 1.21 today. May convert to #lizardpies depending on market moves
LNG 67.5 put was rolled down last week for cost basis of 66.8. Need to adjust and exp. 5/3.
AMAT 43.5 CC expires next week. cb 42.55
ERX 23 cc expires today/assigned and cb 21.81
LNG batch 2 same as above but cb 67.15. Had a better fill.
TNA expiring today 65 put rolled to next week 64 for 0.48 credit. Cb 63.52 if assigned but will manage
TQQQ 53.5 cc expires next week. 56.75 cb. I tried to roll it but the MM are being greedy bloodsuckers so will take the minor loss and use the money on something else.
AMAT 41.5 put expiring today rolled to 42.5 next week for 0.42 credit. Cb 42.08.

#lizardpies
EXPE 113/130/131 for 5/10 credit now 3.84. Hope to close next week.
SQ 74/78/78.5 adjusted Tues for additional credit. 72.81 cost basis

#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 cb down to 7.34
GILD batch 2 65/65 cb at 5.23
XBI 80/80/85 rolled today. Cb 8.96

I am trying a 21 DTE OTM experiment as I noticed while I was off OTM options usually crushed by over half from 21 DTE down to 14 DTE if they stayed OTM. Percentage wise much better than 45 DTE and really not to much closer to the money on strikes. Maybe 1-3. Will keep posted but I am hoping there will be a lot less adjusting. Adjustments just decrease profits. Will keep you posted.

Hoppy Easter everyone 🙂

#optionsexpiration #pietrades EOG will call…

#optionsexpiration

#pietrades
EOG will call out today at 97 with cost basis of 96.14
LNG 67 put rolled up to 68 and next week for 0.66 credit. Total credit now 1.22.
TQQQ batch 1 54.5 cc being assigned with cost basis of 56.39 for 1.89 loss. Was a lot worse in Jan.
LNG batch 2 67.5 rolled up to 68 and out to next week for 0.55 credit.
TNA 62.5 put rolled to next week and 65.5 for 0.85 credit

#lizardpies
EXAS is expiring for 0.62 credit per contract. I was trying to close it but the MM are being greedy. The spread on the put is 0-3.90 and they are not moving. I tried to roll/close for 0.2 but no dice. Ok, I will let it expire for full credit and not pay commission.
EXPE 113/130/131 decaying well. 1 more week should be able to close roll at 50%.

Looks like the largest theta decay on some of these OTM strangles/jade lizards occurs from 28 to 14 days. For instance the 113 put on EXPE is going for 1.25, 21 DTE 1 and 14 DTE 0.20. I may start looking at these from 21 or 28 days down to 14 days to recycle capital faster.

#pietrades AMAT STO the 9…

#pietrades

AMAT STO the 9 DTE 41.5 put at 0.70. Will let assign if ITM or roll depending on where it is next week.

T puts

#ShortPuts #PieTrades Sold $T July 32 puts for 1.50.

DAL earnings analysis

#Earnings $DAL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.16%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO +3.56%
July 12, 2018 BO +1.78%
April 12, 2018 BO +2.93%
Jan. 11, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
Oct. 11, 2017 BO +0.70%
July 13, 2017 BO -1.76% Biggest DOWN
April 12, 2017 BO -0.52%
Jan. 12, 2017 BO -1.06%
Oct. 13, 2016 BO +1.88%
July 14, 2016 BO +3.58%
April 14, 2016 BO +0.93%

Avg (+ or -) 1.97%
Bias 1.41%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 57.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 54.79 to 59.21
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 55.88 to 58.12
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 54.29 to 59.71
Based on DOWN max only (-1.8%): 56.00

Open to requests for other symbols.

#ironcondor, #pietrades

Old school trade

#fuzzy
QQQ Jan 2020 175/184.5 4/18 for 16.72 debit. Plan is to roll/adjust/close depending on where it is next week.

#pietrades
LNG STO the 4/12 67.5 put for 0.80. Cost basis 66.7 if assigned.

#optionsexpiration #pietrades EOG batch 2…

#optionsexpiration

#pietrades
EOG batch 2 assigned at 89 at a cost basis of 92.63. This is a small account and I plan to take it to spreads to juice returns so just wanted to take the loss so I can redeploy capital on Monday.
EOG batch 1 I rolled up to the 97 cc for next week at 6.75 and after selling the 97 for 1.35 cost basis 96.14. I never figured out why it spiked so much yesterday?
FAS 57 cc assigned at cb of 54.20.
ERX 23 cc rolled 2 weeks for 0.5 credit. Cb 21.81
LNG 4/12 67 put sold for 0.54 yesterday.

#lizardpies
EXPE rolled on 4/3 to 37 DTE 113/130/131 for additional credit. Total credit now 3.84 per contract
EXAS STO the 89 put for 4/12 for 1.01, then converted to #jadelizard yesterday 89/89/90 for another 0.6 credit.
SMH closed 4/3 for 0.45 credit per contract
JPM closed 4/4 for 1.08 credit per contract
SQ rolled out to 4/12 for 1.26 credit at 76/76/76.5 strikes. cb 74.74 if assigned.
TNA 60 rolled to 4/12 62.5/62.5/63 for 1.1 credit.

#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 cb at 6.39
GILD 65/65 rolled out 37 DTE yesterday for 1.07 credit. Cb now 7.34

1 more week of surgical recovery then back to work but trading full time the last few weeks has been more than I would make at work so good to know for retirement. However, I am really looking forward to some solid food!

T puts closed

#ShortPuts #PieTrades BTC $T April 18th 31 puts for .15. Sold for 1.60 on Jan 22nd.

Replicated my Oct 24th-Jan 18th successful trade. This time it was Jan 22nd to April 18th.
Assignment would be fine on a high-div tock, becomes a PieTrade with covered calls.

I will look to sell July puts in the coming days.

Expiration but mostly rolls, closing and managing.

#pietrades
EOG 90.5 cc for 4/12 cost basis 90.74. Depending on where it is trading will let assign at slight loss or roll.
EOG 89 cc 4/5 cost basis 92.63. Will roll this one.
ERX 23 cc for 4/5 cost basis 22.31. Will let assign or roll
TQQQ 54.5 cc for 3 weeks cost basis 56.39. Will roll
TQQQ 55 cc for today at 53.79 cost basis. Will assign today.
TQQQ 53.5 cc for 3 weeks cb 56.75. Will roll
FAS 57 cc for 4/5 cost basis 54.20. Will let assign.

#lizardpies
XBI 4/5 86/86/86.5 closed today for 0.52 profit per contract. Could only make .69 above 86 so decent profit for 2 day trade. I had skewed this one to the downside but it moved up today.
EXPE 4/26 115/131/132 for 2.31 credit. Looking good now, hope to close for 50% or better profit in 2 weeks. Right now at 25%.
SMH 4/26 100.5/110/111 for 1.38 credit. Same as above.
SQ 4/5 75.5/75.5/74.03 for 1.75 credit. Same but will most likely roll it in pieces.
JPM STO today the 4/5 101/101/102 for 1.81 credit. Looks like it found a bottom.
TNA 4/5 60/61/61.5 rolled this morning from last week. Credit now 3.06.

#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 for 2 weeks at 8.41 cost basis.
GILD 65/65 for 3 weeks 6.39 cb
XBI 80/80/91.5 cb 11.74. 2 more weeks on the short calls.

Percentage return wise, the #jadelizard trades seem to work the best and also easier to roll because of the initial higher credit. Live study ongoing and will keep you posted. I am also skewing them depending on which way I think it is moving and that seems to help the winning percentage. Using the #markettide to time entries.

Have a good weekend!

2 more weeks in the jaw wires then back to work for me 🙂 although I am enjoying the extra trading.

The pull back helped a…

The pull back helped a few positions so rolling.

#lizardpies
SQ this week 76/76/76.5 rolled the puts to next week 4/5 to the 75.5 put for 0.08 credit. I will let the call side expire worthless then re-establish the #jadelizard on Monday. Cb now 74.14 on put side, no risk to upside.

STO the 4/5 XBI 86/86/86.5 jade lizard for 1.19 credit. Cost basis 84.81 on downside and no risk to upside. Skewed it slightly to downside in case market keeps going down. Anywhere above 86.5 make 0.69 per contract. Below will roll the puts.

#pietrades
EOG batch 1 rolled the 90.5 cc out 2 weeks to 4/11 for 1.05 credit. Cost basis down to 90.74. 1 more roll should be profitable.

Not having a lot of success with directional trades, but by having time to watch the market (not all day) I have been able to time my rolls better and make more income. Not sure I will ever be a full on directional trader. Even watching the 1 minute /ES chart, just missed the pivot.

#optionsexpiration and position updates. I…

#optionsexpiration and position updates.

I was hoping for a reversal today, but alas I was never able to get short. But the run has brought 2 accounts very close to all time highs and 1 of them had some SVXY crap in them so that is a good thing.

#pietrades
EOG 90.5 cc at cost basis of 91.79. Assigned off 96 put 2 weeks ago. Closes next week, nit sure if I will roll or let call out. I could use the money elsewhere.
EOG second batch 89 call at 92.63. Same idea.
TRIP 52.5 cc rolled down to 8 DTE 52 for 51.78. I will let assign if ITM
ERX 8 DTE 23 cc at 22.31. Will assign if ITM
TQQQ 54.5 CC at 56.39 cost basis. A pullback would be helpful
FAS 57 cc at 54.20. Will let assign next week.
TQQQ 53.5 cc at 56.75
TQQQ 55 cc at 53.79

#lizardpies
EXPE 36 DTE 115/131/132 at 2.31 credit
SMH 36 DTE 100.5/110/111 for 1.38 credit

#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 at 8.41
XBI 80/80/91.5 at 11.74
GILD 67.5/67.5 rolled down 22 DTE for 0.28 debit so now cost basis is 6.39.

Ok, just about finished with taxes which is my yearly review of every trade I did the previous year.
SVXY was a complete debacle.
#fuzzy held up the best during the correction but I am still most consistent with #pietrades. However, looks like the #lizardpies may actually be better, especially when selling the ATM straddle. That is the most amount of income you can collect. Then the long call option prevents losses to the upside. I will be doing more of these on a weekly basis.

In fact, I have a lot of time at the moment and found some Tasty trade research (recent) that confirms it. Less volatile returns than even strangles.

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/options-workshop/episodes/research-on-the-big-lizard-strategy-01-15-2019

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/options-workshop/episodes/using-big-lizard-trades-in-a-portfolio-01-22-2019

If you are in a hurry the slides will sum it up. Almost stayed flat during the 2008-2009 market, certainly beat every other tactic.

Moved some money so hopefully some directional opportunities tomorrow.

🙂

Hello bistro, my fun ski…

Hello bistro, my fun ski day March 7 turned into a trip to UMD shock trauma so have been out of work and trading for a few weeks. However, I am home another 4 weeks and plan to trade as actively as I can, kind of a test run for full time trading when I retire someday many years from now.

Won’t bore or gross you out with the details, but a collision with another skier (they are ok from what I have heard) sent me face down into the snow from a jump in the terrain park at the end of the day. It subsequently broke my nose (7th time) and 6 other bones in my face. Fortunately my brain and spinal cord are fine and the helmet did its job. But it took a 4 hour surgery and 4 titanium plates in my palate and sinuses to put me back together.

Anyway, my jaw is wired shut for 4 more weeks so I can’t talk which is required for my job. So I am home recovering and will be trading while I burn through my vacation time, fortunately had enough to cover it.

With that said, I needed a bunch of cash so STO EXPE 43 DTE on last Thurs. 115 put for 2.10 in a larger account. My goal is to close it for 50% profit in 3-4 weeks. Tastytrade style.

One of my goals going forward with trading is to target certain trades for certain requirements. With that said, #pietrades will still be the bread and butter, but I occasionally will sell something farther out and OTM mostly to pull the cash out of the account and use it for certain expenses.

Other trades I have on, sorry some of the dates are hazy. I traded some prior to surgery but my vision was fuzzy and my judgement was slightly impaired. Fortunately does not look like I did anything stupid.
Assigned 300 shares EOG over the weekend at the 96 put but cost basis 93.03. STO 3 march 29 90.5 calls at 1.24 this morning. Will manage aggressively. Cb 91.79.
GILD rolled the 70/70 #fuzzy down to 65/65 for debit but cost basis 8.41.
TRIP 52.5 CC for this week cost basis 52.33.
ERX 21.5 cc should assign this friday at cost basis of 20.28.
TQQQ i rolled both batches to 54.5 CC with cost basis of 56.39 and batch 2 53.5 cc for 56.75 and somehow have a third batch now at the 55 cc for 53.79 cost basis.
XBI #fuzzy 80/80 was assigned early on half. Closed and rolled 1/2 the short side up to 91.5.
FAS 57 cc cost basis is 54.20 and will let assign in 2 weeks.
GILD 67.5/67.5 #fuzzy rolled down for credit. Cost basis 6.11.
EOG batch 2 88.5 cc at 92.83 cost basis.

Hope everyone is doing well 🙂

Learned a few life lessons from this but not sure if it will help trading, will see.

SPX 2dte makes another appearance

STO SPX Mar6 BeCS 2820/2825 @ .30 x4
BTC SPX Mar6 BuPS 2740/2735 @ .05 x4. Sold @ .30. Profit $100
STO SPX Mar6 BeCS 2820/2825 @ .25 x4
STO SPX Mar6 BuPS 2760/2755 @ .25×4
Full position on for this round.

I was planning to pause on the ICs due to low vol. Then the low vol went poof. Also, you could say that @hcgdavis made me do it.:-)
#spx1dte

#jadelizards, #lizardpies, #pietrades, #spikedjadelizard, #spycraft

Updates

#pietrades
EOG batch 1 96.5 put rolled out next week to 96 for 0.16 credit. Cb 93.63 if assigned.
EOG batch 2 96.5 rolled out a week for 0.43 credit. CB 93.91 if assigned.
LNG 65.5 rolled out next week to 65 for 0.12 credit . Cb 63.59 if assigned.
TRIP 54 CC. Was assigned early Tues night so sold the 54 cc for next week for 0.96. Cb 53.03 and will let assign if ITM.
XBI 83/86/87 #lizardpies closed for 0.97. Total credit 3.22 over 3-4 weeks
AXLN 125/131/13 #lizardpies closed for 1. Total profit 1.37 over 3 weeks. It took off to the upside.
QQQ 171.5 sold for 0.75.
SQ 75.5 put STO for 0.83 credit for 3/8.
EXAS 3/15 87.5 put sold for 1.15
ERX 22 cc rolled next week for 0.3 credit. Cb 21.23
TQQQ 54 cc at 56.79, need to stay ahead of the rolls.
FAS 57 cc rolled for 0.40 cb now 54.77.
TQQQ 52 cc at 57 cost basis. Will be rolling.

#fuzzy
GILD 70/70 rolled for 0.24 cb now 7.48.
GILD 67.5/69 cb 6.51
LNG 50/60 rolled for 0.44 credit. Cb 12.49
XBI 80/80 rolled for 0.27. Cb 12.29.

Busy few weeks. Sun is out, headed outside.

SQ Earnings

#Earnings – Sold SQ MAR 1 2019 83.0/78.0 Bull Put Spread @ 2.76

#pietrades

Updates

#markettide Spoke with Bryan this morning. They are rolling out version 3 either this week or next. He told me it maxes out TOS so if you have a slower computer like my laptop you may be better off staying with version 2. However version 3 is supposed to have scanning and my desk top has the power to handle it. He also said thanks to everyone at the Bistro that picked it up. The scanning should give live time signals!

#pietrades
ALXN Rolled 2/22 #lizardpies to 125/129/130 for 1.42 credit. cb 123.88 if assigned
EOG 98.5 put rolled down to 96.5 for 3/1 for 0.50 credit, batch 1. Second batch went through at 0.15 (tradestation issues). Cb 94.28 if assigned. Earnings next week.
LNG 65.5 put rolled earlier in week. Cb 64.21 if assigned
TRIP 57 put rolled out to 3/1 for 0.35 credit. 53.99 if assigned. If still ITM this week will roll it out 43 DTE and down.
XBI #lizardpies rolled out to 3/1 and adjusted to 83/86/87 for 0.30 credit. Cb 82.40 if assigned.
ERX 22 cc 3/1 for 21.53 debit and cost basis.
TQQQ 54 cc in 3 weeks at 56.79. Trying to stay ahead of the rolls until break even then will let it assign and start over.
TQQQ 52 CC at 57.00. Same
FAS 56.6 cc rolled up to 57 3/1 for 0.40 credit. Cb 54.77.
EOG batch 2 rolled out to 3/1 for 0.15 cb 94.34 if assigned.

#fuzzy
GILD 70/70 rolled out 43 DTE for 0.24 credit. cb 7.48.
XBI 80/80 cb 12.56
LNG 50/60 cb 12.93
GILD batch 2 67.5/69 rolled out 43 DTE for 0.45 credit. Cb 6.51.

Tradestation 10 has some huge memory requirements, that was my issue with it not working. I spent 2 hours with Tech sorting out the issues. Bottom line, you need a 10gb memory chip to run version 10. If you don’t have that stay with version 9.5 and they will continue to support it. Option station pro requires less power on that version as well. However, you have to uninstall all previous version and re-install it for the 9.5 version to work correctly. Ghost files from the other version interferes.

I am trying to figure out a way to separate my accounts from the service accounts. May take me a little while to figure out an easy template. In the meantime will probably only have time to post on the weekends. Once I can easily separate them should be able to update on a more regular basis.

Also will be doing more buy writes for #pietrades depending on directional signals. Better returns than just selling puts if I have a upward bias. The other option is more ATM or ITM puts if I think it is headed higher.

Hope everyone is doing well and staying dry or at least having fun with some snow:)
Just wet here.

CVS post earnings

Sold $CVS Apr 18 60 puts @ 1.26 with the stock at 62.79

#pietrades

#pietrades LNG 3 DTE 65…

#pietrades

LNG 3 DTE 65 put rolled out to 10 DTE and up to 65.5 for 0.73 credit. Cb 64.21 if assigned.

#optionsexpiration a day early. Some…

#optionsexpiration a day early.

Some of these trades are from yesterday, have been to0 busy at work to post.

#pietrades #lizardpies
ALXN 120/129/130 for 2/22 for 1.25 credit yesterday off an 0.85 roll the previous week.
EOG 98.5 put for 96.75 cost basis off a roll
LNG 65 puts for 2/22 STO yesterday for 0.56 credit
TRIP 57 puts for 2/22 for 0.66
XBI 84/85/86 total credit now 4.19. Have been rolling 3 weeks.
TQQQ 51 CC rolled out 43 DTE to 54 CC for 0.25. Cb now 56.79
TQQQ 51 cc rolled out 43 DTE to 52 for 0.10 for cost basis of 57.00
FAS 1 DTE 56.5 cc rolled out 8 DTE for 0.47 credit. Cost basis 54.17
EOG batch 2 98.5 8 DTE cost basis 97.1

#fuzzy
GILD 70/70 cost to 7.72
XBI 80/80 rolled for 0.56 credit. Cb 12.56
LNG 50/60 rolled for 0.33. CB 12.93
GILD 67.5/69 rolled for 0.26 cb 6.93.

Finally some consistent results last 4 weeks. Of course the market screaming higher does not hurt. But mostly I was able to unwind a bunch of accumulated rolls and finally pull some cash out of the market again.

Since Jan 1 have been officially working with the advisory service. Obviously I cannot post those trades but will keep posting other trades I find and really like how many of us here are willing to experiment with different tactics to see what really works the best with real money in real time! This is a great trading group and I will stay involved, thanks to many of you I survived the 20% correction which now seems to be over and even came out ahead. This down turn was WAY better than the SVXY debacle last Feb. 6 2018, not that anyone here needed reminding 🙂

One thing is certain, I will be keeping a general market hedge on now all the time. May only need it once or twice a year but then it is a lottery ticket. To keep it from costing too much will probably use a back ratio or risk twist trade. Will set it up to cover a 10% correction. Anything beyond that it becomes a mega lottery ticket.

Cheers, Chris

#pietrades STO the ALXN 2/15…

#pietrades

STO the ALXN 2/15 118 put for 0.85 credit. Could probably get more now. 117.15 cost basis if assigned but more likely will roll.

Expirations, rolls, etc.

#fuzzy
EXPE have the 120/120 and 125/126 expiring tomorrow. Cost basis 9.43. It is really holding onto the time value, I have over 5k of theta decay on this position alone. Should crush with earnings tonight and either way it swings this trade is up huge and will close all of it tomorrow then reset. One of my biggest winning trades so far, especially from a recovery standpoint. Down a lot earlier this year, up 17k+ now 🙂
GILD 70/70 adjusted earlier this week. Cb 8.00, I miscalculated below.
XBI 80/80 rolled out to next week for 0.42 credit. Cb 13.13
LNG 50/60 cb 13.26, adjusts next week
GILD 67.5/69 rolled another week for 0.41 credit. cb 7.19
Some of these trades should be scratched in another 2-3 months, I hope, then have pure income.

#pietrades and #lizardpies
SQ 68 put rolled up to next week 70 for 1.11 credit. Cb 68.89 if assigned but will be out before earnings.
EOG 98.5 rolled out 15 DTE for 0.67 and 0.3 credits. Cb 96.78 and 97.1 Tradestation having issues with option station pro. However, if you call them they will not charge you for the broker assisted trade.
TQQQ 51 cc cb 57.04. Will roll aggressively
TQQQ 51 cc cb 57.10 same
FAS 56 cc rolled out 1 week and up to 56.5 for 0.13 credit. cb 54.64

Hope everyone has a good expiration, volatility back today I assume because of the idiots in DC comments on the trade wars.

#pietrades STO EOG Feb 8…

#pietrades

STO EOG Feb 8 98.5 put for 1.10. Cb 97.4 if assigned.
Another batch of 3 in another account for 1.05 or 97.45 if assigned.

#fuzzy
WDC so far ITM now that can’t roll. Closed the 40/40 for 6.45 credit resulting in 11.26 loss per contract. However, this is much better than if I had held the stock, would have been a 74 point loss as I originially had sold the 100 and 98 puts before Oct.

I will take the cash and use it for a better trade 🙂

#optionsexpiration, adjutements, rolls, new trades…

#optionsexpiration, adjustments, rolls, new trades

#lizardpies
XBI 78/82/8.25 should expire tomorrow for 1.26 profit per contract
AMAT BTC the 39 puts for 0.29 that expire tomorrow. Sold for 0.71 last week. Tradestation so can’t trade until tomorrow. I think I will replace it with a #pietrades 108 CC on IBB currently for around 106.89. Obviously that will be different tomorrow.
FAS STO 56 cc for 54.77 expires in 8 DTE
TQQQ batch 1 50 cc rolled out 22 DTE to 51 CC for 0.26 credit. Cb now 57.04 and will have to stay ahead of the rolls.
TQQQ batch 2 50 cc rolled out 36 dTE 51 cc for 0.55 credit. Cb 57.10 and same as above.

#fuzzy
LNG 50/60 8 DTE rolled out to 22 DTE for 0.3 credit. Cb now 13.26
All the others were updated and expire next 1-2 weeks.

Back to even from the start of the October volatility. Now keep working on getting back to even from SVXY losses. Expect at least another 12-24 months unless everything goes perfectly, hahahaha, yeah that would happen 🙂

Something I noticed about #fuzzy over the last 3-4 months. As long as you keep rolling and generating cash they seem to withstand market volatility better than many other trades. In a few small accounts, I generated almost 50% of the value of the account in cash over that time even though the paper value was steadily declining. Have to agree with @fuzzballl, they are flexible. However, going forward I think I will take profit and then reset as we discussed earlier. I think it would make management easier and also lock in profits and also allow you to move the strikes more effectively as the market moves.

#rolling, adjustments, and new trades…

#rolling, adjustments, and new trades

#fuzzy
MU rolled the 35/35 out 16 DTE for 0.5 credit. Cb now 14.30
WDC 40/40 rolled out 9 DTE for 0.33 credit. Cb now 17.71

I was going to close these at a loss but figure if I can get at least 0.25 per roll will keep rolling to generate cash and lower cost basis. 10 contracts each so decent income.

#pietrades
SQ STO the 9 DTE Feb 8-9 68 put for 1.53. Decided not to jade lizard until after FOMC and see what the market does. If we gap up I will sell the CCS once it has a top or range.

FOMC must have just released up 10 more on /ES. I may #jadelizard SQ into the close if it slows down to the upside.

After 4-5 months of crap trading, finally making some income/cash and money again but I still have a long way to go to recover the SVXY fiasco.

SPX 1-dte IC defense again

Converted SPX Jan28 2625/2620 put side to Jan28 2630/2625/2620 fly @ 1.55. With credit received on IC, net debit is 1.05 per lot x6. This either locks in a loss or a possible profit if SPX closes between 2625 and 2630. Decision made on breach of 2625 level and then waited for bounce to enter.

Defending every other trade is getting old so will probably stay on sidelines or use long ICs as @jeffcp66 is doing. All depends on the HV/IV ratio on SPX after today.

#spx1-dte

#pietrades, #spycraft

#fuzzy WDC 40/40 rolled out…

#fuzzy
WDC 40/40 rolled out 7 DTE for 0.45 credit. cb now 18.04.

#pietrades
AMAT 7 DTE 39 puts sold for 0.71 credit. Cb 38.29 if assigned. Smaller account so only 3 contracts.

Hoping the bottom on the chip sector holds but will roll or take assignment if not, true PIE style.

Holding on further #spycraft at the moment until we figure out the best defense, market is moving more than the options are priced for.

Clearing the decks/resetting several accounts

Obviously what I have been doing the last 4 months has not been working. Hit all time low balance again Jan. 4 this year. So I am going back to what works and has been proven through several market cycles and rebuilding the equity curve. At least last month have recovered and higher than the Feb. 6, 2018 SVXY losses and lowest balance from then.

So I am clearing out losing trades, closing a bunch of #fuzzy, some at profit, some at loss, and re-deploying capital. My trading will mostly consist of #pietrades, #lizardpies, #spycraft and the occasional directional play/scalp and a few #fuzzy

Some closings today, but have 2 more weeks to clear out the primary account.

#fuzzy
EOG 110/110 closed for 5.16 loss per contract. It is so far ITM can’t get decent premiums anymore. My intial loss was 17 so this tactic works.
EXPE closed the back ratio credit spreads, left with 120/120 and 125/126. This is sitting on a profit and will close it over the next 2 weeks as the shorts expire. Cb 9.43 and right now can close for min. 11.45. another week of decay that will be better. Lost $600 on the credit spreads after butterflying to control risk (could have been 2000).
MU 35/35 now ITM Cb 14.80 and will roll next week.
WDC 40/40 cb 18.49 and waiting for the short to implode after earnings today.
XBI 80/80 cb 13.97
LNG 50/60 rolled 15 DTE for 0.5 credit for 13.56 cb.
GILD 67.5/69 rolled 15 DTE for 1.3 credit. Cb 7.60

#pietrades and #lizardpies
XBI 78 put 82/82.5c 8 DTE for 1.26 credit
TQQQ 50 CC rolled out 15 DTE for 0.45 credit. CB 57.56 so will manage aggressively
TQQQ 50 cc lot 2 cb 57.30 same
LNG STO the 8 DTE 63 put for 0.92. CB 62.08 if assigned. LNG is my best performer for the year so far 🙂

#spycraft
Batch 1 closed for a $214 loss after the back ratio adjustment did not work. SPY reversed.
Batch 2 closed for a $344 profit, but only because tradestation messed up and sold 20 contracts of the put side instead of 10 so even with the back ratio that did not work I made a few $. Now I am on hold in this account until tomorrow. Tradestation does not give you credit for closed trades until after midnight so I only have $614 buying power in this account until tomorrow morning. Another reason I prefer TOS over TS.

What I have learned most recently.
#fuzzy works well but I think the real value of them is to close them once you have a profit. The EOG trade would have worked if I had just closed it early. If you still like the trade, reset the strike prices. I will use these as shorter term trades out 1 week or a month, take my profit and reset. Commissions are cheap enough to do that most of the time. A 6 % return in one month and then resetting is 96% annualized. Instead of trying to take the cost basis to zero will just take profit and reset. Will probably just use a 90 day option for the long side.

#spycraft
I think the best adjustment when the short strike is challenged is to butterfly it. You can set a defined p/l by broken winging it and skewing it if you have a bias. Just to stop losing can simply butterfly it. Seems to be the cheapest way to do it and least affected if it reverses. Yes you may lock in a loss, but much better than a full loss on the credit spread.

#pietrades and #lizardpies
Upside directional bias set it up as a synthetic long.
No directional bias, set up as a straddle jade lizard.
Downside directional bias set it up as a strangle jade lizard.
But I think setting it up as a jade lizard initially gives more flexibility in managing because of the extra credit. I will be doing A LOT more of these.
Can also leg in and out depending on how the stock moves.

Pouring here so going to work out in my garage gym. First bike race is in 8 weeks so need to lose 10 pounds and make friends with my fast again 🙂

Hope everyone has a good expiration!

T time

#PieTrades #ShortPuts Sold to Open $T April 31 puts for 1.60.
Replicating my Oct 24th-Jan 18th successful trade. This time it is Jan 22nd to April 18th.
Assignment would be fine on a high-div tock, becomes a PieTrade with covered calls.

$T puts closed

#PieTrades #ShortPuts Well, was planning to let this expire or take assignment, but I forgot I had entered a GTC order weeks ago. So it just filled.

Bought to close $T Jan 18th 31 puts for .15. Sold for 1.37 on Oct 24th. Following @fuzzballl on this, but I’ll do the same thing again, sell ATM puts a couple months out, and if assigned take the stock (and dividend) and sell covered calls.

Finally unraveling some trade adjustments…

Finally unraveling some trade adjustments over the last 14 weeks and bringing in some profits again. Have been flat for 3 months but a very nice week today 🙂

#fuzzy
EOG 110/110 with the back ratio ccs wrapped around it from the other day. With the slight pull back this morning I was able to sell 5 99 calls for 15 DTE for 1.97. What this did was lock in a no loss trade on the credit spread. Original trade was the 97/98 ccs. Back ratioed the other day. With todays trade I locked in a gain of $25 total if it closes at 98.02. Anywhere above 99 or below 97 that expands to $505. Basically inverted a butterfly but because of the gains from the back ratio now have that part of the trade risk free.
After the original post, rolled the 22 DTE 110 put out to 43 DTE for 0.45 credit. Cb now 13.96.
EXPE 120/120 125/126, 117/118 ccs and 118/120 ccs at cost basis of 9.43. Managing same as EOG. Any of the short strikes breached will delta neutral hedge (usually buy back half of the shorts).
GILD 70/70 cb 8.48. Will roll in 2-3 weeks.
MU 35/35 cb 14.80 and will roll 1-2 weeks
WDC 40/40 cb 19.11. Roll next week. This will be the longest to recover. Good thing I have a lot of time.
XBI 80/80 at 13.97 rolls in 2 weeks.
LNG 50/60 1 DTE rolled out 15 DTE for 0.48 credit. Cb 14.06
GILD 67.5/69 cb 8.90 and rolls in 2 weeks

#pietrades
LNG batch 1 61 CC should be assigned tomorrow at 57.70 cb
LNG batch 2 61 cc should be assigned at 58.53 cb.

#lizardpies
SQ should expire for full profit tomorrow. 667.50 profit on 3 contracts in 2 weeks. Finally an easy winner chicken dinner.

#spycraft
22 DTE 242.5/240.5 pcs for 0.20 credit. Small account so only 5 contracts. However, once batch 1 LNG expires this is one of the accounts I will re-dedicate to #spycraft with the mechanical management rules. Trying to double the 2 accounts in a year. Easy to keep track of since the new year.

I will be legging into an out of a lot of trades now. Anytime I can lock in a gain will do it. No guessing about what to do when short strikes are violated, they will be delta neutral hedged or shut down at a minimal loss, no questions asked. After looking at 4 years of #spycraft trades, controlling losses was the number 1 way to make this tactic profitable. The other way appears to be applying some timing by legging in and out of sides.

Lots of trading and work,…

Lots of trading and work, not much profit. The #fuzzy trades hold up well but since I am so far out in time and so far ITM on some of these now, not much income or fast theta decay. Had I known we would be in a full bear I would have unhinged them and would be collecting profits now.

#fuzzy
EOG 110/110 puts are now way ITM. Market makers are being greedy. I have an order in to roll the 29 DTE out to 43 for 0.45 credit but no one will take it. If I can’t roll it will reset or shut the entire thing down for about a 6 point loss as it gets closer to expiration. Hoping for at least a little bump in oil prices. cb 14.64
EXPE 125/126 and 120/120 rolled the 15 and 22 DTE out to 36 and 43 DTE for a total of 2.1 in credits. Cb now 9.63.
GILD 70/70 nice bump today. Cb 8.48 and will roll in a few weeks.
MU 35/35 cb 14.80. Getting dragged down further into the black hole by AAPL.
WDC 40/40 cb 19.11 same as MU.
XBI 80/80 cb 13.97
LNG 50/65 cb at 14.54
GILD lot 2 67.5/69 cb 8.9
Most of these are out 15-22 days before further rolling.

#pietrades
TQQQ 50 cc at 57.60 cb. Will either roll to a leap in 2 weeks or hope for rebound. IRA so I can sit on it but would like to be generating some income.
TQQQ lot 2 50 cc 58.10. Same story.
LNG 61 cc expires next week, cb 57.7 and if expires ITM will be first real winning trade in 13 weeks.
LNG lot 2 61 CC cb 58.53 sam as above.

#lizardpies
SQ 55.5/55.5/56.5 straddle expires tomorrow rolled down to strangle 54.5/55.5/56.5 for 0.49 credit. Total credit now 2.04 with cb of 53.46 if assigned and no risk to upside.

I really think the jade lizard will be an excellent tweak to the #pietrades and possibly increase returns another 10% annualized. As I unwind some of these other trades will be putting more of these on.

I also need to be much better at directional trading!!!!

As I have said before, the income will not keep up with the drops, as much as the market is a 50-50 proposition, the more I trade the more I realize being right on directional makes a huge difference to the success of a trade and profits in general.

Market tide

@hcgdavis @fuzzballl
Thanks for recommending this indicator and for going to bat to get us a discount. The indie has paid for itself a few times over already.

#pietrades

#pietrades LNG 61 cc rolled…

#pietrades

LNG 61 cc rolled out 2 weeks for 0.74 credit. Cb 58.53

Lot 2 62 CC rolled out 14 DTE to 61 cc for 0.53. Cb 57.7

Might have a few more later in the day

#fuzzy

Lots of adjusting but not…

Lots of adjusting but not making anything, just staying flat. Brutal market, I am officially only 2 k above where I was Feb 2018 after the SVXY losses. Obviously need to change what I am doing, need more directional trading as income investing cannot keep up with 10-20% moves. 2018 is going down as a worse year than 2015. Hope everyone else is doing better than surviving. Even the increased volatility is making it hard to roll.

#pietrades
SQ STO the 56.5 8 DTE put for 1.11. CB 55.38 if assigned but I am most likely going to roll it. Actually it is now down 3+ and will roll it now. Moved to 55.5 15 DTE for 0.22 credit. Break even now 52.52.
LNG 61 cc rolled out to 15 DTE for 0.61 credit. Cb 58.10
TQQQ lot 1 60 cc rolled down to 50 cc 43 DTE for 0.80 credit. Cb 58.10
TQQQ lot 2 60 cc rolled down to 50 cc and 43 DTE for 0.70 credit cb 57.60
LNG lot 2 15 DTE 61 cc cb 59.27

#fuzzy
EXPE 125/126 rolled 43 DTE for 0.55 credit. cb now 12.23
EOG 110/110 rolled out 43 DTE for 0.4 credit. cb 11.44
GILD 67.5/69 rolled out 43 dTE for 0.69 credit cb now 8.90

May plan going forward. The now deep ITM #fuzzy will roll the short options out to 43 dte then reset after every 3 weeks. Hope to keep chipping away and if the delta/gamma becomes too large to roll for credits will either close or roll up/down. As long as I can gain 0.4 every 3 weeks will run them to expiration. Still have 108 weeks on most.

For the #pietrades that are below cost basis will aggressively roll up at any sign of rebound to avoid being run over and locking in a loss.

As cash builds from the rolls may either sit on it or add to weekly #pietrades depending on what the market is doing. However I think getting short here is stupid. Any progress on a trade deal with China and I think we rebound big time. Not to get political, but I think the GOP is starting to see how bad tariffs are (layoffs, increased costs, and now crashing market) and to keep their jobs will pressure to get a deal done.

Trade smart or sitting on the sidelines for a while is also a viable option. Wish I had just kept my hedges on, I would be pulling out huge amounts of cash now. Another expensive lesson learned.

#s

I take it FOMC was…

I take it FOMC was not good. Away from my desk for a few hours and everything green turned red, very Christmasy!

#pietrades

Rolling a bunch this week

#fuzzy
EXPE 125/126 7 DTE rolled out 21 for 0.40 credit. Cb 12.78
EOG 110/110 7 DTE rolled our 28 DTE for 0.55 credit. Cb 11.84
MU 40/40 7 DTE to 21 DTE for 0.40 credit. Cb 13.91
WDC 40/42.5 7 DTE to 28 DTE for 0.51 credit. Cb 19.58.
GILD 67.5/69 1 DTE to 21 DTE for 0.76. Cb 9.59

Still have 109 weeks to manage these and some have already been reduced 25-50% from original cost. For pure ROI looks like #fuzzy may win especially when volatility kicks up.

#pietrades
LNG 62 cc 1 DTE rolled out 7 DTE for 0.74 credit. Cb 58.84

All told $1860 of credits for the week. Another week or 2 will have enough cash to start the #lizardpies test using 1-2 contracts. After 8 weeks of being flat finally bringing in cash again to use for new trades.

I plan to try to take a few of the #fuzzy all the way to expiration just to see what kind of actual/real world returns you can get over a year. Currently looks around 100% annualized. With the exception of WDC. may end up closing that as soon as I can break even especially if it keeps dropping.

Have a great weekend 🙂

Rolls

Trying to get back to selling weeklies, better returns in real time confirmed by my account balances. Taking a credit of 0.4 every week works out to $2080 profits for 52 weeks vs. 1.2 x 12 months only works out to $1440 or 37% better return. So anyway, even with the gamma risk the decay is much faster on weeklies and the #pietrades concept works so now I am trying to apply it to all other trades, #fuzzy, #coveredcalls etc. to increase income. Last 8-12 weeks had gone out 21-45 DTE on expirations to help deal with the volatility. Trying to pull everything back to weekly now. I know TT shows 45 DTE works best but not according to my account balances.

#fuzzy
MU 40/40 8 DTE rolled out to 15 DTE for 0.53 credit. Cb now 14.16
WDC 40/47 8 DTE rolled out to 15 DTE for 0.27 credit. Cb 21.13
GILD 67.5/69 1 DTE rolled out to 8 DTE for 0.61 credit. Cb 10.35. I really wanted to let some more time decay but doubt I will have time to trade tomorrow. Starting to see flu so the office is really busy. Get your flu shots if you have not had them yet.

Added 1 more at lunch time, EOG 110/110 8 DTE rolled out 15 DTE for 0.30. Cb 12.39

Still have 110 weeks to manage all these. The #fuzzy trades handle the volatility better than anything else I have on at the moment.

#pietrades
LNG 1 DTE rolled out to 8 DTE at 62 cc for 0.45 credit. Cb 59.58

Lots of expirations next week and week after. Should free ups some cash to try a live #lizardpies and maybe @elitethink short iron fly tactic, small lots on both.

Hope everyone is having a good week 🙂

Rolls and adjustments

#pietrades
TQQQ 63 cc rolled out to Jan 19 60 for 0.70 credit. CB now 58.4
TQQQ lot 2 65 cc rolled out and down to Jan 19 60 for 0.70 credit. Cb now 58.75

Just sit on these until rebound. If not will convert to #fuzzy later.

LNG 65 CC rolled down 8 DTE to 62 for 0.96 credit. CB 60.03 so will let assign next week. My plan with this account is to then start a live #lizardpies.

LNG lot 2 expires in 3 weeks at the 61 CC for cb 59.27. Same as above but will change ticker.

My #pietrades for the next few weeks will be LNG, GILD, EXPE, EOG, XBI, SMH. A few others I am watching but these will be the core trades for a while. Want to see chips and a few other names stabilize before adding.

#fuzzy
LNG 50/65 rolled out 43 DTE for 1.03 credit. Cb now 15.31 and 110 weeks left.

I have not taken a LEAP all the way to expiration in several years but I may do that with some of these smaller accounts to see what kind of annualized returns I can achieve. Hopefully 50-100% or more.

Have a ton of contracts expiring in 15 and 21 DTE so sitting on hands until then. At that point will add a few more live #lizardpies as I roll the #fuzzy and free up some cash.

4 things I noticed with the latest correction. If you own the stock can sit on it long term but the losses are much larger on paper than with spreads and takes a lot longer to get back to even.

The spreads help navigate the corrections and are easier to adjust, but everyone here probably already knew that.

Using longer options with the #pietrades 21-43 DTE prevents a lot of assignments and easier to roll. Also helps handle the volatility easier.

Once VIX settles down (under 15) will always leave on an SPX or /ES hedge lottery ticket to cover about 10% correction for the account. Probably finance it by selling a LEAP on something I want to own long term.

Finally a slight bump in my equity curve after being down/flat for the last 8 weeks 🙂

Since we are on experiment…

Since we are on experiment discussion below again, here is one I have been paper trading. A twist on #pietrades. If we need a new term we could call them #lizardpies.

So obviously with the market rout all my #pietrades went ITM and to prevent a meltdown in margin I converted them all to #fuzzy. Which is great, has controlled the volatility and still have 111 weeks to manage them. But as @fuzzballl points out below, they are expensive. Cheaper than stock but my EXPE puts are now trading at 22.40 and 19.50. Not chump change.

The #pietrade idea is sound for income generation and even some capital gains long term as long as you sell the call ATM or OTM once assigned the stock. You also are typically only selling 1 side and as Karen the supertrader (now scam artist) figured out, selling the other side is what really improves long term returns and consistency. She may have been using some creative accounting but the idea is sound and has been proven by tasty trade.

So here is the tweak I have been playing with. When you set up the trade, start it as a #jadelizard but set it up ATM. For example with XBI currently at 78.02 I would sell the 10 DTE 78 puts naked (cash secure) and then sell the 78/79 call credit spread. Total credit 2.55. No upside risk, downside break even is 75.55 which is lower than where I probably would have just sold the put.

3 possible outcomes
a: below 78 assigned shares on the put at 78 but cost basis 75.55. Can sell a next week call or call credit spread if you think rebound, then uncapped upside
b: Between the strikes max profit and you may be assigned on the call but can exercise your long call if needed.
c: above 79 everything cancels out and you keep the credit minus $1.

Here’s a graph on a 10 lot.

2017-12-01-TOS_CHARTS

I have been trading it on paper and it would have had better loss control on the #pietrades than straight put sales the last 2 months.

Thoughts, holes in the strategy, other ideas to tweak it or make it better? If you wanted to be more conservative could sell strangles OTM instead or straddles ATM on the short sides but then less credit. Since my premise is income, I am trying to bring in as much credit as possible on the front end.

#coveredcallcampaign, #vixindicator

#shortputs #pietrades ORCL Sold Dec….

#shortputs #pietrades ORCL

Sold Dec. 21, 46 put for 1.01, earnings Dec. 12.

SSO TNA TQQQ UPRO

Now the proud owner of shares in all the above via short puts. Buying weekly put flies and selling calls or call credit spreads to cover cost of put fly. Using profits to buy more shares on down days. So far so good. This strat is keeping me out of trouble and allowing me to focus on family for a while.

#pietrades

OLED TQQQ LABU-LABD

#LongCalls #LongPuts #LEAPS #CoveredCalls – Was out nearly all day but had a couple fills from standing orders and the beginning of another experiment 🙂

OLED:
Bought to Close OLED NOV 23 2018 98.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .65)

TQQQ:
Bought to Close TQQQ NOV 30 2018 55.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.19) re-load tomorrow hopefully…

Risk reduction on one contract taking the small loss…

Bought to Close TQQQ JAN 18 2019 40.0 Put @ 3.50 (sold for 2.50)

LABU/LABD

One of my most frustrating positions so going to try something. Converting the LABU long LEAP calls to long LEAP puts on LABD. The built in drag should help this and the call side was approaching massive whipsaw risk with sales so far below the LEAPS. New position is out to 2020 instead of 2021. Collect as much premium as I can between now and then and then see where it stands.

To establish the new position, I sold the calls and bought whatever puts were the same price and just rolled the basis to the new position. Long 25 strike puts now so will be selling above those but not nearly the whipsaw risk that the call side had.

Long story short…about 30 cents a week on a 5 lot is the goal. Hopefully can get most of that.

#fuzzies, #pietrades

#fuzzy GILD rolled 4 DTE…

#fuzzy

GILD rolled 4 DTE 70/70 out to 25 DTE for 1.02 credit.

Cost basis now 10.31 and still have 112 weeks to manage.

Starting to agree with @fuzzballl, the extra time on these makes it a lot easier to ride out market volatility.

However, I am trying to trade them #pietrades style to keep cash coming in. Seems to work, I doubled my cash balance in the core account with just 2 trades this morning (was not much to start with, only $1100). But now I have enough to add some more contracts somewhere at better prices 🙂

All I want for Christmas…

All I want for Christmas is a Santa Claus rally 🙂

Adjustments, just doing my best to bring in income to offset the continued chaos.

#supercharger
TQQQ 40/45 BTO for 4.50 sold for 3.75. Trying to keep this account from being wiped out so taking a small loss before it became worse. Going long term with what’s left on a GILD #fuzzy.

#fuzzy
GILD 2021 67.5/69 next week for 11.92. Have 113 weeks to manage.
EXPE 125/125/126 rolled the 1 DTE 126 out to 15 DTE for 1.00. CB now 13.88 and as above 113 weeks left.
XBI 2020 80/85 15 DTE rolled down to 80 at 43 DTE for 1.91 credit CB now 14.63. 61 weeks left to manage.

#pietrades
LNG 63 cc tomorrow rolled out 43 DTE and down to 61 for 1.97 credit. Cb now 59.27.

Bizarrely MU is up, go figure?!
As @kathycon said below, market is defying all patterns and seasonality this year, not quite and exact quote but close. Does the VIX need to spike to 50 before the selling is done? Who knows, trade smart, preserve capital, there will be big opportunities soon enough.

If the whippy settles down later my try some directional trades before the day is over.

Good luck, stay safe!

And the winner is:

#fuzzies during the market volatility. Makes sense, the spread offsets both sides and the income from selling options helps cushion the drop.

Trying to get back into #pietrades but market not really cooperating at the moment.

TNA TQQQ SSO

Closed Nov9 short puts for .20 and rolled to Nov16 expiration. Swapped SSO out and added UPRO.
#pietrades

EXPE rolled the 126 puts…

EXPE rolled the 126 puts that expire today out 15 days for 1.85. Cb now 13.03 and have brought in $4750 in premium in 4 weeks on a 10 lot #fuzzy and still have 805 days left.

This is a good one for #pietrades but if they go wring converting to a #fuzzy also seems to work.

Hope everyone else has a good expiration and weekend 🙂

#pietrade tweak I am considering….

#pietrade tweak I am considering.

On the initial put sale, I may pair jade lizard with them. Bring in a little extra income, if it does not hit the short strike keep the additional income.

Then if assigned on the put, instead of selling straight CC may sell a call credit spread. Then if called out you may also get a runner on the long calls. Or if nothing else will give you the ability to ratio it if moving around a lot.

As I experiment with this will post results. In looking at more recent trades it certainly would have helped.

Currently #pietrades yield about 30-40 percent annualized on cash accounts, 40-50% on margin. Trying to bump that up a little and at the same time reduce risk.

Light Thurs trade day

Yesterday rolled EOG 115/120 #fuzzy out to 36 DTE for 0.51 credit. Cb now 7.66

Today XBI #fuzzy 80/90 rolled down to 85 and out to 29 DTE for 0.49 credit. Cb 16.54 now

#pietrades LNG lot 2 CC 66 rolled down to 63 and 15 DTE for 1.15 credit. Cb now 61.24. Hoping it will assign so I can restart #pietrades on this account.

Have some expiring tomorrow but with the volatility they are holding on to their premium. EXPE 125/126 short puts on a #fuzzy are sitting ATM and still traing for 0.90 and 1.90. With 10 contracts want to capture a lot more of that decay before I roll.

The hedges worked well, the uptick certainly helps but finally starting to take some profits out of the 12k of premium I had sold over the last 3-4 weeks. Another week or 2 and all that premium should find it’s way to my accounts as long as we don’t implode again.

Once VIX settles down will put the SPX hedges back on. New personal rule, anytime VIX is 12.5 or under will keep SPX hedge on. Maybe 1-2 times a year have a winning lottery ticket. This year would have paid out twice, Feb and now!

SSO TNA TQQQ pie trades

I’m switching to a less active trading style starting next week due to family obligations. Here’s my second attempt at pie trades which I think are probably more profitable than all the daily scrambling that I do.

STO SSO Nov9 110p @ 2.60
STO TNA Nov9 61.5p @ 2.70
STO TQQQ Nov9 52p @ 2.60
I don’t mind at all if I get assigned any or all of these. My goal is to start building a portfolio of these ETFs at cheap prices.

#pietrades

#rolling and recovery Scalped a…

#rolling and recovery

Scalped a few more trades on /NQ and gave back my gains. But learned that 15 min and 30 minute chart is probably ideal for scalping. 1 and 5 minute too much chop. I will be adding some more directional trades and using my tools.

#fuzzy
XBI 80/97 rolled to 80/90 for 0.49 credit. Cb 17.84
LNG 50/66.5 rolled to 22 DTE 65 for 0.49 credit. Cb 17.84
XBI lot 1,2,3 closed for losses totaling 620. With only until Jan 2019 and hardly any cash in this account did not think it was worth trying to recover and losing more.

#pietrades
LNG Lot 1 66 cc rolled down to 65 and 43 DTE for 0.83 credit. Cb 60.99
LNG lot 2 66 cc rolled the same for 0.9 credit. cb 61.00

#supercharger all I had left for in this tiny IRA.
QQQ 22 DTE 150/155 for 4.53. Will have to manage if we drop more.

EOG and SHOP

#PreEarnings Following on a couple of Mama’s trades; these two symbols have been good for me lately.

Bought $EOG Nov 2nd 125 calls for .94. Earnings on Nov 1st pm
Bought $SHOP Oct 26th 150 calls for 1.90. Earnings on Oct 25th am

#pietrades

Hopefully the VIX stays up…

Hopefully the VIX stays up while the market stabilizes. Good premiums, I see some good #pietrades (back to weeklies) if I can unwind a few positions or generate some cash on rolls.

Updates rolls and adjustments, just…

Updates rolls and adjustments, just trying to pull some cash out of the market until it stabilizes. Paper losses are high but everything hedged so as we approach expiration the paper losses will improve.

#shortstrangles
/CL added 34 DTE 60/84.5 strangles for 0.22 credit. On oil I have finally figured out the best way to trade it is take profits early, re-enter later if you want back in. Adjust early if it is going against you. The theta decay is wicked fast. 5 contract strangles is roughly $100 a day in decay so as long as it stays in your range you can take some profits early. Closed previous strangles last night for $900 profits in 9 days even with oil moving. Just reset the strangle this morning.

#fuzzy
WDC 60/58 LEAP cost basis 15.41. Sitting on this until closer to expiration.
MU 55/50 LEAP cost basis 8.67 so not expensive but MU has SUCKED. I will adjust it once the short options are under 0.2, soon I suspect.
EOG 115/120 put leap at 14.88. May adjust back 115 depending on where it is at expiration.
EXPE 125/125/126 LEAP cost basis 14.88. Just waiting for theta decay to kick in.
LNG 50/66.5 LEAP cost basis 17.24
XBI 95/97 LEAP adjusted to 95/95 for 0.25 credit. CB 3.37 and 99 days left to manage but this is red on paper.
87/95 LEAP cost basis 4.33 and same as above
95/95 LEAP cost basis 0.85

#pietrades
TQQQ lot 1 65 cc rolled down to 63 CC and out to 22 DTE for 1.4 credit. CB 60.65
TQQQ lot 2 65 CC rolled down to 63 same as above. CB 61
LNG lot 1 66 CC rolled out 8 DTE for 0.53 credit. CB 63.07
LNG lot 2 66 CC rolled out 8 DTE for 0.63 credit. CB 63.63.

Biggest paper losses are the 401k as it is half bonds and half stocks but I can’t trade my way around the dip in those. My 6 trading accounts are not doing too badly 🙂

Just a few observations, my accounts that are much more concentrated are doing better. Not saying put all your eggs in 1 basket, but 1 basket is certainly easier to watch and adjust.

Aggressively collecting income and rolling options helps keep cost basis down and brings in cash even when the market dumps. Also helps offset bad timing.

Picking the right horse makes a difference. I am going to pay a lot more attention to sector rotation. My oil and gas trades are saving my bacon at the moment.

Hope everyone is doing ok with this and has some cash for when a floor is put in 🙂

Liquidate!

Had a come to Jesus moment at about 2 in the morning. I realized I needed to consider dumping a lot of positions. My account size has not budged much in the last couple months… money I’ve made in options has been sucked away by too many crappy stock positions. Other than AAPL and SQ, stock has not been good to me, all #PieTrades I have tried, rather Earnings repair or from scratch, have been huge dogs.

So I just dumped almost all stock positions.

Winners: $AAPL, $SQ
Losers: $FB, $BABA, $OLED, $MU, $OLED, $YY, $AMAT

Fortunately, other than $FB, the losers were all only 100 shares. AAPL and SQ were both 200. My FB losses were minimal since I have sold covered calls for a year on 100 shares, getting that lot down to 105.00 cost average. I then had more shares added in August earnings dump.

Now I can focus on strategies that I have more control over, rather than the whims of stock prices.

I’m still in options positions in $BOIL, $GUSH, $DUST. Also long calls in $PYPL (Jan 100’s, not doing well). Sticking with pre-earnings trades in $CAT, $JPM, and $MSFT. Long stock in $PVTL, since its so cheap. And a few #VXXGame short calls, and my long running long puts, the $VXX Jan 20 puts, which have lost so much potential in this volatile year.

Dumped underwater short puts in $RH. That symbol has simply killed me, I must quit it!

Also, closed $SPX Oct 12th 2825/2850/2960/2985 condor for breakeven at 4.15.

I’m looking to exit the #SuperChargers since short strikes have been breached, in $AMZN and $REGN.

#pietrade

Chips are breaking out

#PieTrades #LongCalls
Sold $MU Oct 12th 47 #CoveredCall for .90.
Still long Oct 5th 45 calls, bought for 2.02 on Sep 20th, which hasn’t worked out yet and probably should have taken a 50% loss last week. But maybe I’ll get the breakout just in time.