DAL earnings analysis

#Earnings $DAL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.16%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO +3.56%
July 12, 2018 BO +1.78%
April 12, 2018 BO +2.93%
Jan. 11, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
Oct. 11, 2017 BO +0.70%
July 13, 2017 BO -1.76% Biggest DOWN
April 12, 2017 BO -0.52%
Jan. 12, 2017 BO -1.06%
Oct. 13, 2016 BO +1.88%
July 14, 2016 BO +3.58%
April 14, 2016 BO +0.93%

Avg (+ or -) 1.97%
Bias 1.41%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 57.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 54.79 to 59.21
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 55.88 to 58.12
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 54.29 to 59.71
Based on DOWN max only (-1.8%): 56.00

Open to requests for other symbols.

#ironcondor, #pietrades

Old school trade

#fuzzy
QQQ Jan 2020 175/184.5 4/18 for 16.72 debit. Plan is to roll/adjust/close depending on where it is next week.

#pietrades
LNG STO the 4/12 67.5 put for 0.80. Cost basis 66.7 if assigned.

#optionsexpiration #pietrades EOG batch 2…

#optionsexpiration

#pietrades
EOG batch 2 assigned at 89 at a cost basis of 92.63. This is a small account and I plan to take it to spreads to juice returns so just wanted to take the loss so I can redeploy capital on Monday.
EOG batch 1 I rolled up to the 97 cc for next week at 6.75 and after selling the 97 for 1.35 cost basis 96.14. I never figured out why it spiked so much yesterday?
FAS 57 cc assigned at cb of 54.20.
ERX 23 cc rolled 2 weeks for 0.5 credit. Cb 21.81
LNG 4/12 67 put sold for 0.54 yesterday.

#lizardpies
EXPE rolled on 4/3 to 37 DTE 113/130/131 for additional credit. Total credit now 3.84 per contract
EXAS STO the 89 put for 4/12 for 1.01, then converted to #jadelizard yesterday 89/89/90 for another 0.6 credit.
SMH closed 4/3 for 0.45 credit per contract
JPM closed 4/4 for 1.08 credit per contract
SQ rolled out to 4/12 for 1.26 credit at 76/76/76.5 strikes. cb 74.74 if assigned.
TNA 60 rolled to 4/12 62.5/62.5/63 for 1.1 credit.

#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 cb at 6.39
GILD 65/65 rolled out 37 DTE yesterday for 1.07 credit. Cb now 7.34

1 more week of surgical recovery then back to work but trading full time the last few weeks has been more than I would make at work so good to know for retirement. However, I am really looking forward to some solid food!

T puts closed

#ShortPuts #PieTrades BTC $T April 18th 31 puts for .15. Sold for 1.60 on Jan 22nd.

Replicated my Oct 24th-Jan 18th successful trade. This time it was Jan 22nd to April 18th.
Assignment would be fine on a high-div tock, becomes a PieTrade with covered calls.

I will look to sell July puts in the coming days.

Expiration but mostly rolls, closing and managing.

#pietrades
EOG 90.5 cc for 4/12 cost basis 90.74. Depending on where it is trading will let assign at slight loss or roll.
EOG 89 cc 4/5 cost basis 92.63. Will roll this one.
ERX 23 cc for 4/5 cost basis 22.31. Will let assign or roll
TQQQ 54.5 cc for 3 weeks cost basis 56.39. Will roll
TQQQ 55 cc for today at 53.79 cost basis. Will assign today.
TQQQ 53.5 cc for 3 weeks cb 56.75. Will roll
FAS 57 cc for 4/5 cost basis 54.20. Will let assign.

#lizardpies
XBI 4/5 86/86/86.5 closed today for 0.52 profit per contract. Could only make .69 above 86 so decent profit for 2 day trade. I had skewed this one to the downside but it moved up today.
EXPE 4/26 115/131/132 for 2.31 credit. Looking good now, hope to close for 50% or better profit in 2 weeks. Right now at 25%.
SMH 4/26 100.5/110/111 for 1.38 credit. Same as above.
SQ 4/5 75.5/75.5/74.03 for 1.75 credit. Same but will most likely roll it in pieces.
JPM STO today the 4/5 101/101/102 for 1.81 credit. Looks like it found a bottom.
TNA 4/5 60/61/61.5 rolled this morning from last week. Credit now 3.06.

#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 for 2 weeks at 8.41 cost basis.
GILD 65/65 for 3 weeks 6.39 cb
XBI 80/80/91.5 cb 11.74. 2 more weeks on the short calls.

Percentage return wise, the #jadelizard trades seem to work the best and also easier to roll because of the initial higher credit. Live study ongoing and will keep you posted. I am also skewing them depending on which way I think it is moving and that seems to help the winning percentage. Using the #markettide to time entries.

Have a good weekend!

2 more weeks in the jaw wires then back to work for me 🙂 although I am enjoying the extra trading.

The pull back helped a…

The pull back helped a few positions so rolling.

#lizardpies
SQ this week 76/76/76.5 rolled the puts to next week 4/5 to the 75.5 put for 0.08 credit. I will let the call side expire worthless then re-establish the #jadelizard on Monday. Cb now 74.14 on put side, no risk to upside.

STO the 4/5 XBI 86/86/86.5 jade lizard for 1.19 credit. Cost basis 84.81 on downside and no risk to upside. Skewed it slightly to downside in case market keeps going down. Anywhere above 86.5 make 0.69 per contract. Below will roll the puts.

#pietrades
EOG batch 1 rolled the 90.5 cc out 2 weeks to 4/11 for 1.05 credit. Cost basis down to 90.74. 1 more roll should be profitable.

Not having a lot of success with directional trades, but by having time to watch the market (not all day) I have been able to time my rolls better and make more income. Not sure I will ever be a full on directional trader. Even watching the 1 minute /ES chart, just missed the pivot.

#optionsexpiration and position updates. I…

#optionsexpiration and position updates.

I was hoping for a reversal today, but alas I was never able to get short. But the run has brought 2 accounts very close to all time highs and 1 of them had some SVXY crap in them so that is a good thing.

#pietrades
EOG 90.5 cc at cost basis of 91.79. Assigned off 96 put 2 weeks ago. Closes next week, nit sure if I will roll or let call out. I could use the money elsewhere.
EOG second batch 89 call at 92.63. Same idea.
TRIP 52.5 cc rolled down to 8 DTE 52 for 51.78. I will let assign if ITM
ERX 8 DTE 23 cc at 22.31. Will assign if ITM
TQQQ 54.5 CC at 56.39 cost basis. A pullback would be helpful
FAS 57 cc at 54.20. Will let assign next week.
TQQQ 53.5 cc at 56.75
TQQQ 55 cc at 53.79

#lizardpies
EXPE 36 DTE 115/131/132 at 2.31 credit
SMH 36 DTE 100.5/110/111 for 1.38 credit

#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 at 8.41
XBI 80/80/91.5 at 11.74
GILD 67.5/67.5 rolled down 22 DTE for 0.28 debit so now cost basis is 6.39.

Ok, just about finished with taxes which is my yearly review of every trade I did the previous year.
SVXY was a complete debacle.
#fuzzy held up the best during the correction but I am still most consistent with #pietrades. However, looks like the #lizardpies may actually be better, especially when selling the ATM straddle. That is the most amount of income you can collect. Then the long call option prevents losses to the upside. I will be doing more of these on a weekly basis.

In fact, I have a lot of time at the moment and found some Tasty trade research (recent) that confirms it. Less volatile returns than even strangles.

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/options-workshop/episodes/research-on-the-big-lizard-strategy-01-15-2019

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/options-workshop/episodes/using-big-lizard-trades-in-a-portfolio-01-22-2019

If you are in a hurry the slides will sum it up. Almost stayed flat during the 2008-2009 market, certainly beat every other tactic.

Moved some money so hopefully some directional opportunities tomorrow.

🙂