I don’t trade based on this indicator, but I know it is widely followed so I thought I would post for anyone interested. SPY’s 50-Day MA has been dropping relative to its 200-Day MA at about the rate of $1 a day. Since the spread is about $5 now, the famous (or infamous) “death cross” will occur around Monday or Tuesday barring any major changes.
I just wanted to post this today, because this market timing model is based on ignoring intra-month noise and only checking the signal at the close of the month (today). That way, it avoids a lot of the whipsaws that plague many timing systems, at the expense of being slower acting. Barring any massive rallies, it looks like it will flip to bearish at the close today.
Basically, it holds either SPY or IEF, based on whether SPY is above its 200-Day MA at the close of the month. I used the similar Vanguard mutual funds to be able to extend the backtest (below).
Here it is:
Feel free to use or ignore. I just thought it might help give an overview of where the market is right now.
SPY 21 dte ladder strat
I’m switching from ICs to Risk Reversals during this period of low volatility.
STO Feb27 267/265 BuPS @ 31 x2. BTO Feb27 276/278 BuCS @.67 x1. Goal is for credit to cover debit.
Opened a portfolio-style hedge in SPY to mitigate losses on the long side.
btc 9.29.17, put @1.08 had sold for 2.61.
figured 60% return for 10 days on and 29 dte left /no brainer
do it again on next sell-off