Sep 18 Sold 30/25 put ratio spread for 5.65 (5×10)
Bot BWB 15/10/7.5 for 1.25 qty 5
Trying to execute a ratio bear call spread at 60/65 for .70 qty 4
No upside risk, breakeven w/ the call spread is $10.00
Even though I ended the week with a couple of decent earnings trades (INTU and GPS), I took a pretty big hit on poorly managed SPX spreads in the whipsaw, and also a week-ending surge in NUGT and DRIP.
Expiring at max profit:
$GPS 15.5/20 strangles, sold yesterday for .62
Almost expired at max profit
$SPX 2915/2940-2980/3005 condors, sold for 2.90 on Monday. I closed the short puts for .30 in the last minute because I couldn’t trust it.
Expiring at max loss:
$SPLK 124/130/133 #BrokenWingButterfly, bought for 2.02 on Wednesday
#Earnings $NOW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
NOW has only moved UP on the last 13 earnings reports. Last time it had a down move was Jan 2016.
April 24, 2019 AC +7.41%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +13.41% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +1.42%
July 25, 2018 AC +4.60%
April 25, 2018 AC +4.53%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +2.64%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +1.21%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.74% Smallest UP
April 26, 2017 AC +3.75%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +3.61%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +7.68%
July 27, 2016 AC +4.65%
Avg (+ or -) 4.64%
Bias +4.64%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 292.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 273.15 to 310.85
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 278.46 to 305.54
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.4%): 252.84 to 331.16
Based on smallest UP only (+0.7%): 294.16
Open to requests for other symbols.
Sold to close $NKE Mar22/Mar29 88 put calendar for .02. Holding long 88 calls into next Friday. Good job by Mort closing the put calendar earlier at .17… I just had too much faith. Double Calendars bought yesterday for .49.
Exercising: $TIF 96/100/102 calls #BrokenWingButterfly for 2.00. Bought yesterday for 1.50. Allowing to exercise on IB for about 70 cents in fees per lot, but closed manually for 2.00 on TOS to avoid $45 in fees.
$AMRN 16 put
$HIIQ 31 and 33 puts Thank you @honkhonk81
$EVTC 30 puts
$TNDM 59.50 puts
$NTNX 35 put Thank you @honkhonk81
$AVGO 260/265/267.5 #BrokenWingButterfly (calls), exercising for 2.20 credit (bought for 1.65).
$ADBE 245/250/280/285 condors, sold for 1.20 yesterday. Thank you @jeffcp66 for both.
$NFLX 325/335 BUPS STO Valentine’s Day for 2.50.
Lost My Shirt Much too much patience. Threw away rabbit’s foot and four leaf clover. We will see what happens
$GOOGL 1180/1160 BECS STO 2/28 for 3.10
$LULU 145/155 BUCS BTO at 4.75 on 2/5
$TNDM BTC 3/15 70 call and STO 3/22 73 call at $1 cost. Stock at 73.14
$HIIQ BTC 3/15 40 put and STO 3/22 40 put at $1.30 credit. Stock at 34.17
Have a great and green weekend, and a greener remainder of the year. If you drink, do not trade! 😉
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Sold to close $SFIX Mar 22nd 25 calls for 6.80. Waited since Wednesday for this to bounce meaningfully above 32.00, but it didn’t. So I lost a few extra cents on closing, since I covered the short puts and stock for 6.90.
Sold final batch of $ORCL 53 dub cals for .80. Also legged out of a couple to get .85 total. Never has there been a more perfect Friday for a double calendar. Bought for .23 & .24 yesterday.
Bought to close $INTC Mar 15th 50 #CoveredCalls for 4.30 to avoid assignment. Will replace with new calls or sell stock next week.
$AVGO 260/265/267.5 #BrokenWingButterfly (calls), exercising for 2.50 credit (bought for 1.70 yesterday).
$ADBE 245/250/280/285 condors, sold for 1.12 yesterday.
$SPX 2755/2775-2835/2855 condors, sold yesterday for .75
#Earnings Sold to close $BUD 75 call calendar for .07. This one moved farther up today, so profit’s not possible. Closed the call side to avoid assignment.
$MNST I’ll get a small profit out of the 62 calendar, but not moving down enough to make the ATM 58 #DoubleCalendar work. Will be closing the call side to avoid assignment, but will wait until later in case we get a drop.
$VMW This one moved up, but should still turn a small profit.
$SPLK #BrokenWingButterfly Looking for this to rise into the close so I can take profit. It passed through my center strike in the morning but volatility was too wild to close with enough profit.
Bought $SPLK March 1st 137/142/145 Broken wing CALL butterfly for 1.20. buy (1) 137, sell (2) 142, buy (1) 145
(stock at 137.00 at time of trade)
Trade has no upside risk. Max loss, debit paid (1.20). Max gain: 3.80 (if pin at 142). Capped gain: .80 if above 145. Goal will be to close for profit during the day when price passes through the 142 area. If it explodes higher or gaps lower, trade can be ignored for exercise to cancel out (or, if above 145, close all to avoid exercise fees). BUT if price ends day between 137 and 145, you WILL BE ASSIGNED if you don’t close the necessary options. I can help if you follow this trade.
Followed BAT at TT which I rarely do March16, 362.50/370/370/385, profitable below 378, TSLA has been running up
#Earnings #LongStock Sold to close some of my $HCA stock for 78.50 and 78.26. I had these on Trail stop orders… I was assigned with cost basis of 82.30. I will ride on with the balance of shares… prefer this smaller position if I have to hold through a correction.
Bought to close $WMT 81.5 calls for .05. Sold the 78.5/81.5/84 #BrokenWingButterfly for 2.00 yesterday. Despite plunging market, WMT has been climbing today. Recovery any higher will turn me a profit.
$PLCE — will be assigned stock via 110 puts expiring tomorrow. I’m okay with that, as I feel it will recover. Stock held steady today, indicating 100 may be a support level.
Slightly different… Sold $WMT Aug 18th 78.5/81.5/84 broken-wing butterfly for 2.00. Max loss downside is 1.00, max loss upside is .50. With stock at 81.00, can sustain a -1.9% move down and a +3.5% move up and remain profitable. Leans bullish with decent retail reports today from TGT and URBN.
Biggest UP move: 9.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -4.4%, Average move: 3.6%.
Sold to close half of my SRPT July 21st 39.5 long calls for 3.90. This will assign me short shares at 41.10 cost basis. Taking max loss on the other half of the 36.5/39.5 call spread, as I don’t want to strain my margin by taking too large a short stock position.
Bought to open $V July 21st 96/100/102 BWBF for 1.68. This buy 1×96 call, sell 2×100 calls, and buy 1×102. The trade has bullish bias… top profit of 2.32 if it ends Friday at 100. Minimum profit of .32 no matter how high it goes. Max loss 1.68 below 96.00.
Visa has a bullish chart with high open interest at 100.
Biggest UP move: 10.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -3.6%, Average move: 3.4%. Top profit is at +1.6%.
This recently fired long from a daily squeeze, the chart looks bullish, and there is high open interest on the 97.5 calls. So I bought this broken-wing butterfly, which profits on any move up, no matter how high (although max profit is at 97.50). Downside max risk is purchase price of 1.90.
Bought to open $VMW June 2nd 92.5/97.5/100 call butterflys for 1.90.
Here is the trade and risk profile: