Sep 18 Sold 30/25 put ratio spread for 5.65 (5×10)
Bot BWB 15/10/7.5 for 1.25 qty 5
Trying to execute a ratio bear call spread at 60/65 for .70 qty 4
No upside risk, breakeven w/ the call spread is $10.00


PYPL Earnings


Jul 31
177.5/175 put ratio, 2×4 1.65 cr
172.5/167.5/165 BWB downside hedge .58 debit qty 2
breakeven $166.93, approx 12 delta

#brokenwingbutterfly SPX #tastytradefollow at the…

#brokenwingbutterfly SPX
#tastytradefollow at the bell sold Nov. 15, 2600/2700/2700/2750 for 2.60

Rough week

Even though I ended the week with a couple of decent earnings trades (INTU and GPS), I took a pretty big hit on poorly managed SPX spreads in the whipsaw, and also a week-ending surge in NUGT and DRIP.

Expiring at max profit:
$GPS 15.5/20 strangles, sold yesterday for .62

Almost expired at max profit
$SPX 2915/2940-2980/3005 condors, sold for 2.90 on Monday. I closed the short puts for .30 in the last minute because I couldn’t trust it.

Expiring at max loss:
$SPLK 124/130/133 #BrokenWingButterfly, bought for 2.02 on Wednesday

SPLK trade

#Earnings. Bought to Open $SPLK 124/130/133 #BrokenWingButterfly for 2.02. Breakeven is down around 125.00, so some room below. No upside risk.


NOW earnings analysis and trade

#Earnings $NOW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

NOW has only moved UP on the last 13 earnings reports. Last time it had a down move was Jan 2016.

April 24, 2019 AC +7.41%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +13.41% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +1.42%
July 25, 2018 AC +4.60%
April 25, 2018 AC +4.53%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +2.64%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +1.21%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.74% Smallest UP
April 26, 2017 AC +3.75%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +3.61%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +7.68%
July 27, 2016 AC +4.65%

Avg (+ or -) 4.64%
Bias +4.64%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 292.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 273.15 to 310.85
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 278.46 to 305.54
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.4%): 252.84 to 331.16
Based on smallest UP only (+0.7%): 294.16

Open to requests for other symbols.


NVDA closing

#Earnings Closed first few $NVDA 155/160/162.5 call #BrokenWingButterfly lots for 3.00. Bought yesterday for 1.49.

Since we are hovering around the center strike I will wait to try for higher prices on the remainder.

NVDA butterfly

#Earnings Bought to Open $NVDA May 17th 155/160/162.5 #BrokenWingButterfly for 1.49. Bullish trade with no upside risk.

Final Trades and Expirations

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Sold to close $NKE Mar22/Mar29 88 put calendar for .02. Holding long 88 calls into next Friday. Good job by Mort closing the put calendar earlier at .17… I just had too much faith. Double Calendars bought yesterday for .49.

Exercising: $TIF 96/100/102 calls #BrokenWingButterfly for 2.00. Bought yesterday for 1.50. Allowing to exercise on IB for about 70 cents in fees per lot, but closed manually for 2.00 on TOS to avoid $45 in fees.

TIF earnings butterfly (bullish)

#Earnings Bought to Open $TIF 96/100/102 #BrokenWingButterfly (calls) for 1.50.
Max loss: $150
Downside breakeven: 97.50
Max profit: 2.50 (if pin at 100)
Capped profit at 102 and above: .50

Expiration / Lost My Shirt GOOGL LULU/ Rolled HIIQ Puts TNDM Calls

$AMRN 16 put
$HIIQ 31 and 33 puts Thank you @honkhonk81
$EVTC 30 puts
$PYX 25Puts
$TNDM 59.50 puts
$NTNX 35 put Thank you @honkhonk81
$AVGO 260/265/267.5 #BrokenWingButterfly (calls), exercising for 2.20 credit (bought for 1.65).
$ADBE 245/250/280/285 condors, sold for 1.20 yesterday. Thank you @jeffcp66 for both.
$NFLX 325/335 BUPS STO Valentine’s Day for 2.50.
Lost My Shirt Much too much patience. Threw away rabbit’s foot and four leaf clover. We will see what happens
$GOOGL 1180/1160 BECS STO 2/28 for 3.10
$LULU 145/155 BUCS BTO at 4.75 on 2/5

$TNDM BTC 3/15 70 call and STO 3/22 73 call at $1 cost. Stock at 73.14
$HIIQ BTC 3/15 40 put and STO 3/22 40 put at $1.30 credit. Stock at 34.17

Have a great and green weekend, and a greener remainder of the year. If you drink, do not trade! 😉

Final Trades and Expirations

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Sold to close $SFIX Mar 22nd 25 calls for 6.80. Waited since Wednesday for this to bounce meaningfully above 32.00, but it didn’t. So I lost a few extra cents on closing, since I covered the short puts and stock for 6.90.

Sold final batch of $ORCL 53 dub cals for .80. Also legged out of a couple to get .85 total. Never has there been a more perfect Friday for a double calendar. Bought for .23 & .24 yesterday.

Bought to close $INTC Mar 15th 50 #CoveredCalls for 4.30 to avoid assignment. Will replace with new calls or sell stock next week.

$AVGO 260/265/267.5 #BrokenWingButterfly (calls), exercising for 2.50 credit (bought for 1.70 yesterday).
$ADBE 245/250/280/285 condors, sold for 1.12 yesterday.
$SPX 2755/2775-2835/2855 condors, sold yesterday for .75

AVGO earnings trade

#Earnings Bpought to open $AVGO Mar 15th 260/265/267.5 call #BrokenWingButterfly for 1.70. No upside risk. Allows for a 3% downside move.

BURL trade

#Earnings Bought to open $BURL Mar 8th 167.5/172.5/175 #BrokenWingButterfly (calls) for 1.40. No upside risk…

Max loss debit paid (1.40) if below 167.25.
Breakeven 168.85.
Max gain, 3.60 if Friday pin at 172.50.
Capped gain if over 175.00, 1.10.

Earnings trades

#Earnings Sold to close $BUD 75 call calendar for .07. This one moved farther up today, so profit’s not possible. Closed the call side to avoid assignment.

$MNST I’ll get a small profit out of the 62 calendar, but not moving down enough to make the ATM 58 #DoubleCalendar work. Will be closing the call side to avoid assignment, but will wait until later in case we get a drop.

$VMW This one moved up, but should still turn a small profit.

$SPLK #BrokenWingButterfly Looking for this to rise into the close so I can take profit. It passed through my center strike in the morning but volatility was too wild to close with enough profit.

SPLK trade

#Earnings #BrokenWingButterfly This trade worked last quarter, and with positive bias in $SPLK I like it. Still, the stock is a bit extended so I see it as riskier than last quarter.

Bought $SPLK March 1st 137/142/145 Broken wing CALL butterfly for 1.20. buy (1) 137, sell (2) 142, buy (1) 145
(stock at 137.00 at time of trade)

Trade has no upside risk. Max loss, debit paid (1.20). Max gain: 3.80 (if pin at 142). Capped gain: .80 if above 145. Goal will be to close for profit during the day when price passes through the 142 area. If it explodes higher or gaps lower, trade can be ignored for exercise to cancel out (or, if above 145, close all to avoid exercise fees). BUT if price ends day between 137 and 145, you WILL BE ASSIGNED if you don’t close the necessary options. I can help if you follow this trade.

SPLK earnings

#Earnings Expiring: $SPLK Nov 30th 102/107/109 #BrokenWingButterfly, for a 3.00 credit at Exercise. Bought for 1.60 yesterday. I was trying to close for 3.05 or more, but wasn’t possible after stock moved above 110 and didn’t come back. My broker charges little to none for exercising ITM spreads.

SPLK speculative trade

#Earnings Bought to Open $SPLK Nov 30th 102/107/109 #BrokenWingButterfly for 1.60.
This is a bullish trade. Breakeven at 103.60. No upside risk.
Max loss 1.60.
Max gain (if pin at 107) 3.40.
If it explodes above 109 gain will be 1.40.

DIS closed

#Earnings Sold to close $DIS Nov 9th 116/118/119 #BrokenWingButterfly for 1.39. Bought yesterday for .70. Hovering around my center strike, so closing before it drifts too far away.

DIS earnings trade

#Earnings Not a big mover… I’m slightly bullish looking at the chart so doing a low risk #BrokenWingButterfly.

Bought to open $DIS Nov 9th 116/118/119 call butterfly for .70. No upside risk. Breakeven around 116.80. Max profit around 70%.

FB covered call

#Earnings #CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
Sold $FB Apr 27th 170 covered call for 1.00.


#brokenwingbutterfly TSLA Followed BAT at…

#brokenwingbutterfly TSLA
Followed BAT at TT which I rarely do March16, 362.50/370/370/385, profitable below 378, TSLA has been running up


#SkewedIronCondor This is kind of like a #BrokenWingButterfly. I’m working off the assumption that this has topped out for the near future. Jan exp: 49/50/50/55 for 1.73 cr, no downside risk, upside break even is 51.73. Lots of time for defense on this if it heads back up.

WMT earnings closed

#Earnings BTC $WMT Aug 18th 81.5 puts for 2.09. Sold in the #BrokenWingButterfly for 2.00 on Wednesday. Small loss; could have been a medium winner had I closed on this morning’s peak, but didn’t anticipate such a pullback.

Earnings Update

#Earnings #LongStock Sold to close some of my $HCA stock for 78.50 and 78.26. I had these on Trail stop orders… I was assigned with cost basis of 82.30. I will ride on with the balance of shares… prefer this smaller position if I have to hold through a correction.

Bought to close $WMT 81.5 calls for .05. Sold the 78.5/81.5/84 #BrokenWingButterfly for 2.00 yesterday. Despite plunging market, WMT has been climbing today. Recovery any higher will turn me a profit.

$PLCE — will be assigned stock via 110 puts expiring tomorrow. I’m okay with that, as I feel it will recover. Stock held steady today, indicating 100 may be a support level.

WMT earnings

#Earnings #BrokenWingButterfly
Slightly different… Sold $WMT Aug 18th 78.5/81.5/84 broken-wing butterfly for 2.00. Max loss downside is 1.00, max loss upside is .50. With stock at 81.00, can sustain a -1.9% move down and a +3.5% move up and remain profitable. Leans bullish with decent retail reports today from TGT and URBN.
Biggest UP move: 9.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -4.4%, Average move: 3.6%.

Visa and SRPT earnings

#Earnings Sold to Close remaining $V July 21st #BrokenWingButterfly. Bought for 1.68, closed for 3.52 avg, so 1.84 profit.

Sold to close half of my SRPT July 21st 39.5 long calls for 3.90. This will assign me short shares at 41.10 cost basis. Taking max loss on the other half of the 36.5/39.5 call spread, as I don’t want to strain my margin by taking too large a short stock position.

Visa trade, partial closed

#Earnings #BrokenWingButterfly Sold to close one of my lots for 3.26 (legged out). Watching the rest. 96/100/102 call BWBF bought yesterday for 1.68.

Visa broken-wing

#Earnings #BrokenWingButterfly
Bought to open $V July 21st 96/100/102 BWBF for 1.68. This buy 1×96 call, sell 2×100 calls, and buy 1×102. The trade has bullish bias… top profit of 2.32 if it ends Friday at 100. Minimum profit of .32 no matter how high it goes. Max loss 1.68 below 96.00.

Visa has a bullish chart with high open interest at 100.

Biggest UP move: 10.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -3.6%, Average move: 3.4%. Top profit is at +1.6%.

VMW earnings

#Earnings #BrokenWingButterfly
This recently fired long from a daily squeeze, the chart looks bullish, and there is high open interest on the 97.5 calls. So I bought this broken-wing butterfly, which profits on any move up, no matter how high (although max profit is at 97.50). Downside max risk is purchase price of 1.90.

Bought to open $VMW June 2nd 92.5/97.5/100 call butterflys for 1.90.

Here is the trade and risk profile:

Screen Shot 2017-06-01 at 10.45.41 AM