Even though I ended the week with a couple of decent earnings trades (INTU and GPS), I took a pretty big hit on poorly managed SPX spreads in the whipsaw, and also a week-ending surge in NUGT and DRIP.
Expiring at max profit:
$GPS 15.5/20 strangles, sold yesterday for .62
Almost expired at max profit
$SPX 2915/2940-2980/3005 condors, sold for 2.90 on Monday. I closed the short puts for .30 in the last minute because I couldn’t trust it.
Expiring at max loss:
$SPLK 124/130/133 #BrokenWingButterfly, bought for 2.02 on Wednesday
#Earnings. Bought to Open $SPLK 124/130/133 #BrokenWingButterfly for 2.02. Breakeven is down around 125.00, so some room below. No upside risk.
#Earnings $NOW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
NOW has only moved UP on the last 13 earnings reports. Last time it had a down move was Jan 2016.
April 24, 2019 AC +7.41%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +13.41% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +1.42%
July 25, 2018 AC +4.60%
April 25, 2018 AC +4.53%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +2.64%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +1.21%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.74% Smallest UP
April 26, 2017 AC +3.75%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +3.61%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +7.68%
July 27, 2016 AC +4.65%
Avg (+ or -) 4.64%
Bias +4.64%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 292.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 273.15 to 310.85
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 278.46 to 305.54
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.4%): 252.84 to 331.16
Based on smallest UP only (+0.7%): 294.16
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings Closed first few $NVDA 155/160/162.5 call #BrokenWingButterfly lots for 3.00. Bought yesterday for 1.49.
Since we are hovering around the center strike I will wait to try for higher prices on the remainder.
#Earnings Bought to Open $NVDA May 17th 155/160/162.5 #BrokenWingButterfly for 1.49. Bullish trade with no upside risk.
Sold to close $NKE Mar22/Mar29 88 put calendar for .02. Holding long 88 calls into next Friday. Good job by Mort closing the put calendar earlier at .17… I just had too much faith. Double Calendars bought yesterday for .49.
Exercising: $TIF 96/100/102 calls #BrokenWingButterfly for 2.00. Bought yesterday for 1.50. Allowing to exercise on IB for about 70 cents in fees per lot, but closed manually for 2.00 on TOS to avoid $45 in fees.
#Earnings Bought to Open $TIF 96/100/102 #BrokenWingButterfly (calls) for 1.50.
Max loss: $150
Downside breakeven: 97.50
Max profit: 2.50 (if pin at 100)
Capped profit at 102 and above: .50